Game 2013.20: Royals at Tigers

The Tigers have a new closer (same as the old one).

And they are lucky to get him:  “A lot of teams wanted to sign me,” Valverde said. “Like the Yankees and Mets. A lot of teams.” Count on the Yankees to spoil the fun: Yankees GM Brian Cashman told WFAN radio: “False, false, false.” Then Buster Olney piled on and said the Mets didn’t make an offer either.

At any rate, an optimist (or something) can say that Valverde is the missing piece that completes the bullpen. “Valverde could be the answer. Truly, the answer…Leyland will be able to use his bullpen cast in the slots to which they’re best-suited.” As Vince said, the greatest gain from signing Valverde may be that Leyland can manage more comfortably now, and doesn’t have to think about who pitches when.

Not that there are not opposing views. Setting aside the whole debate about how important having a designated closer even is, some are calling the signing of Valverde in particular a panic move.

For what it is worth, he did look like a different pitcher last night. He still came in with a spit and a hop (although without the trademark glasses), but has a different delivery now, and a quicker one by the way. His fastball seems to have picked up a couple mph from the end of last season.  But where was that supposed improved slider? (All 18 pitches were fastballs. It may have been just too cold for anything else). Does he have a strikeout pitch? The three outs were hit rather hard. And how will he pitch with men on base? Valverde’s celebration dance was subtle and subdued, as should be ours until those questions are answered.

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This afternoon is the marquee pitching matchup game, James Shields vs. Justin Verlander. Look out for Billy Butler, who has tormented Verlander at a .396 pace over his career.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Victor Martinez. V-Mart finally became unstymied with some “in play, no out” balls. Let’s stay on a roll here.

Today’s Kelly-Time Lineup:

  1. Jackson, CF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Kelly, LF
  7. Peralta, SS
  8. Avila, C
  9. Infante, 2B

Game 2013.19: Royals at Tigers

Well, what to do on a rainy day with no baseball? If you are Dave Dombrowski, sign Jose Valverde, that’s what. Jim Leyland didn’t waste any time either: Valverde is coming back as The Closer (“one thing you know about him, he’s done it before”), and you can expect the bullpen to settle into The Role type of bullpen, as The Committee is disbanded. What Rondon’s role will be remains to be seen, and he may just be a placeholder until the team figures out what exactly is going on with Octavio Dotel.

Valverde will be available to close today’s game, if the situation arises, and how can one hope that it will not?

So The Big Potato has come full circle now from The Closer to the Struggling Closer to the Postseason Disaster Closer to The Unsigned and Unloved Former Closer to the Aww What The Heck Minor League Signing to…The Closer. Dave Dombrowski says that “his stuff is back throwing like he did a couple years ago.” Well, we shall see. What is undeniable is that there will not be any dull moments the next time a save situation arises. Jason Beck has an amusing timeline of the circular evolution of Jose Valverde from Tiger Closer to Tiger Closer.

Of course, with Valverde back, someone had to go. Brayan Villarreal was the one thrown onto the bus from Detroit to Toledo. Villarreal has stuff that has been described as “unhittable,” but unfortunately teams have figured out that they don’t need to hit him, and that standing there like a house by the side of the road can actually work when he is on the mound.

The 41st man on the 40-man roster turned out the be the sort-of-forgotten Duane Below, who was Designated For Assignment, and can now be claimed on waivers. The Blue Jays may be his next stop–they have already claimed Aaron Laffey, Casper Wells, Mauro Gomez, and Edgar Gonzalez this month.

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Speaking of Casper Wells, The Ghost will be haunting Oakland now. The Blue Jays Designated Wells 5 days after claiming him on waivers, and the Oakland A’s acquired him for “cash considerations” (and moved former Tiger Scott Sizemore to the 60-day DL to make room for him). Wells seems like he would have been a good fit for that RH LF platoon role: he has outstanding numbers against left-handing pitching, and his glove is a plus at all 3 outfield positions. The Tigers have virtually no chance to claim anyone on waivers (every MLB team but one has to pass first), but it seems like they could have come up with “cash considerations.”

And since we’re at it with the former Tigers: Inge is back up with the Pirates (1-4, 2B, RBI). Cue the peanut gallery. And Delmon Young had his first rehab assignment for Philadelphia. Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Young is expected to step in as the Phillies’ everyday right fielder, but not until he’s “adequate” in the field.” Oh, stop it Ruben, you’re killin’ me!

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Today’s starting pitchers are still Max and Wade, so I will stick with the lucky slump-busting picture.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Well, Max still figures in the equation, but the POPG obviously has to go to Jose Valverde, whose appearance or non-appearance alike will be the topic of the game.

Today’s Powerless Lineup (reverse jinx in effect):

  1. Jackson, CF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Dirks, LF
  7. Peralta, SS
  8. Avila, C
  9. Infante, 2B

Postponed: Royals at Tigers

Well, we needed that off-day. I’m not speaking for the team; the fans certainly did though.

The news of the day is that Octavio Dotel has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow inflammation, the 2nd time he has suffered this ailment (the first just landed him on the day-to-day list). Whether the elbow inflammation caused his ineffectiveness or his ineffectiveness caused the inflammation diagnosis, the Tigers decided it was time to give Rondon a roll in the bigs. Rondon solved some control problems from Spring Training (he hasn’t walked a batter in his last 4 Mud Hen outings), and he has been rewarded. It remains to be seen how this might effect the Valverde situation–Valverde continues to pitch well, and has a May 5 call-up deadline in his contract.

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Surprisingly though, the bullpen had very little to do with the Tigers slumping on the 2nd half of their West Coast trip. The bats simply disappeared, especially with runners in scoring position. (For those wondering why Phil Coke was left in to face Trumbo, by the way, Dotel’s injury meant there were no right-handers left in the bullpen to bring in anyway).

The Tigers have a meager 12 home runs for the season, and an anemic .379 slugging percentage, good for 12th in the league (they are being outslugged by the Royals). With runners in scoring position they are only hitting .230, with a .654 OPS (12th), and with bases loaded it only gets worse, an astounding .087 BA with a .301 OPS.

Prince Fielder, after being named Player of the Week, began striking out like his body had been snatched by Inge, and had a golden sombrero and a platinum poncho to add to his luggage for the return trip.  It would be easy to just say “that’s baseball,” but the more astute fan would detect the working of a jinx, and blame John Lowe for wondering if the Tigers could have two .400 hitters this season.

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A big part of the offensive malaise of course is the continued struggles of Victor Martinez, which have left the Tigers with a Ramon Santiago-like OPS of .542 from the DH position (14th) and from the 5th spot in the lineup (13th).  Martinez has had some bad luck on balls in play, but he is not making any excuses.  At any rate, the Martinez situation could turn into one of those Raburn/Boesch/Ordonez situations:  it is too early to do anything but stay with the course, but if the Tigers end up on the other side of the All-Star break with a 5-hitter with a .600 OPS, that spells trouble.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Max Scherzer. Max will strike out a bushel of batters, but more than that, we are going with the slump-busting, Creepy Max Glare game picture to hypnotize the Royals. If Max gets in trouble, look for Leyland to bring Rondon in for his first MLB appearance with bases loaded and nobody out.

Today’s Powerless Lineup (reverse jinx in effect):

  1. Jackson, CF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Dirks, LF
  7. Peralta, SS
  8. Avila, C
  9. Infante, 2B

Game 2013.18: Tigers at Angels

After two resounding losses to the Angels and three consecutive overall, the Detroit Tigers are on their heels trying to salvage one win in the series and end their road trip on a positive note with a positive record (for the trip and the season both). We don’t want to see .500 again, do we? And we sure don’t want to get to the point where we do want to see it again.

Today RHP Doug Fister goes up against LHP C.J. Wilson. Have the Tigers beaten a southpaw yet in 2013? I’m thinking not. Fister was brilliant last time out. Wilson had a decent albeit labored outing against the Astros in his last start. In 67 PA, current Angels have put up an OPS well over Fister’s career OPS-against, but 19 of those PA belong to Josh Hamilton, whom Fister has had in his pocket to date. (Beware: This usually spells trouble.) Wilson, despite a marginally significant current Tiger .714/career .674 OPS-against, has done well against the Tigers he’s faced the most. (Don’t be surprised to see Santiago at SS, and maybe even a day off for V-Mart.) He’s a bit generous with walks, but stingy with home runs.

Alarm status on Tigers hitting has been officially upgraded to Code Funk, after 9 runs in 5 games. Let’s look at these 9 runs. 5 were driven in by Miggy. 2 scored on infield outs. 2 were walked in. Hmmm. What does it all mean? I don’t want to look at the RISP numbers over this stretch. Really I don’t.

Being humbled by C.C. Sabathia and humiliated by King Felix is one thing. Being humbled by Tommy Hanson and humiliated by Garrett Richards is quite another.

Why don’t we move on to a cheerier subject, such as the Tigers bullpen? This problem has been overshadowed by the hitting woes, but it’s still there. I often wonder why stats such as inherited runners scored and first batters faced (each inning) reaching aren’t more front and center for relievers. Drew Smyly and Darin Downs have turned in some good work, but I guarantee you the aforementioned stats aren’t pretty for the rest of the pen. I was going to work up the stats for you, but two ugly games have left me exhausted. Perhaps by the time of my next series the issue will have gone away. That would be nice. In the meantime, Octavio Dotel and Joaquin Benoit appear to be making their inexorable way down Valverde Road, and perhaps Brayan Villarreal could go to Toledo and stay there for a while.

And now the Redemption Game starting lineups, courtesy of that inveterate baseball savant…

POST-GAME: Angels 4, Tigers 3, in 13 innings. Tough loss. Taking back a lead is not the Tigers’s strong suit.

TURNING POINT: After Tigers hitters leave the bases loaded in the first two innings, the bottom 3rd becomes outright Clown Show, with 2 Fister HBPs, a Pujols “double” that was clearly a Cabrera error good for 2 haunting runs, and a botched DP throw by Infante (Fielder gets a share) good for 1 haunting run more. TURNING POINT: Top of the 5th, Prince golfs a 2-run shot to RF off of Wilson to turn back the clock with one swing. TURNING POINT: Top of the 9th, Cabrera and Fielder draw what are essentially intentional walks to load the bases with 2 outs to get to Martinez. Martinez battles, but Frieri gets him to pop out harmlessly to left. Big time fail. GAME-LOSER: The 3-1 breaking ball Coke (not Jim Leyland) threw to Trumbo for the walk-off HR. Cokey has to deal with his 2nd walk-off of the year. He was way good for the 2 innings prior, though.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout

HONORABLE MENTION: Al Alburquerque, Doug Fister, Prince Fielder, Jerome Williams, Ernesto Frieri, C.J. Wilson

NOT SO GOOD: Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Minus some generous official scoring, by my count Cabrera has 5 errors at 3B this year. 2 today, including the first very costly one.

Tigers hitting failing to turn threats into runs is the THE story now, and the bullpen was good today – Alburquerque especially was in otherworldly 2011 form – but here are those bullpen stats I mentioned just the same, updated through today’s game:

INHERITED RUNNERS SCORED (8 OF 17 TIMES, 12 OF 24 RUNNERS SCORED OVERALL)

ALBURQUERQUE: 2 OF 4 TIMES, 3 OF 7 SCORED

VILLAREAL: 3 OF 4 TIMES, 3 OF 4 SCORED

COKE: 1 OF 3 TIMES, 1 OF 3 SCORED

DOTEL: 1 OF 2 TIMES, 3 OF 5 SCORED

DOWNS: 1 OF 3 TIMES, 2 OF 5 SCORED

BENOIT: 0 OF 1 TIMES, 0 SCORED

FIRST BATTER FACED IN AN INNING RESULTS IN REACH OR ADVANCE (23 IN 80 BF); WITHOUT SMYLY, 22 IN 62 —  FIRST BATTER OBP = .275; WITHOUT SMYLY, FIRST BATTER OBP = .339

ALBURQUERQUE: 4 IN 11 BF (5 K, 2 BB, 1 H, 2 WP ON SAME BATTER)

VILLAREAL: 5 IN 8 BF (3 K, 3 BB, 1 H, WP, SB)

COKE: 2 IN 11 BF (4 K, 0 BB, 2 H)

DOTEL: 4 IN 7 BF (1 K, 0 BB, 4 H)

DOWNS: 4 IN 11 BF (5 K, 3 BB, 1 H)

BENOIT: 4 IN 12 BF (3 K, 2 BB, 2 H)

SMYLY: 1 IN 18 BF (9 K, 0 BB, 1 H)

PORCELLO: 0 IN 2 BF (0 K)

Game 2013.17: Tigers at Angels

After last night’s deflating loss, of a type we’ve seen before this season and would rather not see any more of, the Tigers send out RHP Rick Porcello against Angels RHP Garrett Richards. Porcello missed his last start due to an off-day shuffle type thing; instead, he turned in a perfect two innings in what I think was his first regular-season (at least) bullpen appearance ever. Nice. Richards started the season in the bullpen and had a so-so outing in his first start against the Astros a week ago. Porcello looks good in 66 PA against current Angels: .608 vs. .769 career OPS-against and strikeouts at twice his career rate. Richards’s history against current Tigers can be summed up in one 2012 start against them in which he pitched 7 shutout innings.

Today’s “Ah, I see the problem” lineups (note: I think some of the splits were current before last night’s game – see Bourjos):

CF Jackson 333/398/440 RISP .364, 4 RBI
RF Hunter 418/451/597 RISP .214, 6 RBI
3B Cabrera 348/416/493 RISP .455, 14 RBI
1B Fielder 328/427/625 RISP .333, 14 RBI
DH Martinez 196/313/214 RISP .125, 4 RBI
LF Dirks  190/300/214 RISP .273, 4 RBI
SS Peralta 302/333/413 RISP .250, 7 RBI
C Avila 189/218/302 RISP .053, 0 RBI
2B Infante 255/278/255 RISP .267, 4 RBI

CF Bourjos 267/298/489 RISP .000, 1 RBI
LF Trout 293/387/484 RISP .231, 4 RBI
DH Pujols 309/426/491 RISP .300, 7 RBI
RF Hamilton 200/254/367 RISP .143, 5 RBI
1B Trumbo 323/354/468 RISP .167, 4 RBI
2B Kendrick 263/306/368 RISP .182, 4 RBI
C Iannetta 273/333/432 RISP .143, 4 RBI
SS Harris 263/286/474 RISP .000, 1 RBI
3B Jimenez 474/524/632 RISP .333, 0 RBI

POST-GAME: Angels 10, Tigers 0. Two games for the price of one. The first one lasted 1 inning. This was followed by an 8-inning exhibition game that the Angels also won, and despite the 1-0 score it was as boring as a ST game, which it kind of was. The only reason Porcello earns a “Not So Good” is one fat pitch for a slam. His first inning was an unlucky one of historic proportion, at least 6 very cheap hits among the 9 the Angels put up, any one of which for this or that could have been an out and closed the door before Trout put the game away.

Turning point: Angels going to bat in the first inning.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Garrett Richards, Mike Trout
HONORABLE MENTION: Drew Smyly
NOT SO GOOD: Rick Porcello

Game 2013.16: Tigers at Angels

The Detroit Tigers (9-6) finish their one and only West Coast road trip, a successful one so far, by paying a visit to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (4-10) for a three-game series.

Friday, April 19, 10:05 ET start

Saturday, April 20, 3:05 ET start

Sunday, April 21, 3:35 ET start

Today’s starters: Current Angels have hit RHP Sanchez only slightly better than his overall average (.730 vs. .708 OPS) in a smallish number of PA (55). The only Tiger who’s seen much of RHP Hanson (new to the AL) has been Prince Fielder (good numbers in 18 PA). Anibal has been good and looking better each time over 3 starts. Mixed results so far for Hanson, with the Astros putting up 5 in 5 on him last time out.

The 2013 Angels have been, in a word, disappointing. Mostly it’s the pitching, bullpen included, but while team batting looks OK on the surface, 52 runs in 14 games isn’t getting it done. Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjous are off to slow starts. Mike Trout has exactly one stolen base thus far, and word has it he’s none too happy playing LF. Their defense hasn’t been anything to write home about. Basically, they’ve played about as well as their record indicates. Are they due to turn it around against the Tigers? I doubt it. Like the Blue Jays before them, they’re probably too good to keep down for long and will be a formidable opponent… next time the Tigers face them.

Do the Angels miss Torii Hunter? They ought to. It warms my heart to compare early returns on Hamilton and Hunter. Torii isn’t going to finish batting .400, and Hamilton will undoubtedly hit 40 HR again if he stays healthy, but… Torii is a lot more fun. Less dangerous to fans in the stands. And he’s also a Tiger. Yay Torii.

The Tigers are in pretty good shape. The starting pitching has been remarkably good – 15 games and counting and not rocked or roughed up or close to it, not even once. The bullpen has come around some. Defense is top echelon. Hot hitting was the top story until the recent “Series of the Strikeout.” Are the bats in a bit of a funk, or do we just have to tip our caps to Mariners pitching that was far and away the toughest Detroit has faced all season?

The Tigers find themselves close to where they were a year ago. You may recall that in 2012, Detroit started 10-5, only to hit their most dismal stretch of the season immediately thereafter (11-21). There are many good reasons that this shouldn’t happen again this year. If all goes at least sorta kinda according to plan, anyway. Good times at present, so let’s enjoy it.

A “law of averages” type prediction for the series might be that Tigers pitching will sag a little but that the bats will come to the rescue, with maybe a couple slugfests in the offing. Tigers hitters should be so glad to get away from Seattle that they might be able to pound or slap their way to a series sweep. Or at the least a series win, I should hope. They’ll be playing in the best baseball weather of the season so far, a kind of early summer preview.

And now the starting lineups, courtesy of a nice person who might be you and probably is…

POST-GAME: Angels 8, Tigers 1. A major RISP failure for Tigers hitters, a waste of a quality Sanchez start (every Tigers loss this season has been a waste of a decent start), another bullpen meltdown, and something of the dreaded Clown Show (Tuiasosopo and Jackson at the LCF wall was the costliest but far from the only clowning). No turning points, no game-winners or -losers, just a game for the taking that the Tigers politely declined to win.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Peter Bourjos

HONORABLE MENTION: Anibal Sanchez, Tommy Hanson

NOT SO GOOD: Octavio Dotel, every Tigers hitter but Miggy, Matt Tuiasosopo, Austin Jackson, and… Miguel Cabrera (costly defensive misplays)

Game 2013.15: Tigers at Mariners

9-5, 1st place, 1 game up.

Nice work, friends. Based on this morning’s chatter, there are a lot of tired DTW guys today.

On a night when more Tigers donned a golden sombrero (4) than crossed home plate (2), a Brayan Pena out, his 5th of the night, brought home Don Kelly (pinch running for VMart) in the top of the 14th for what would prove to be the winning run. Though not without some drama…Pena was the difference in the bottom of the 14th as well as the final link in a Hunter –> Fielder –> Pena relay on an Ackley double which even had Gene Lamont questioning why there was a play at the plate. Fielder’s throw was a good bit up the line and Smoak was still smoked. A better throw and Pena could have been in a better position to cushion the Smoak train. Smoak wasn’t even close. He may have made it to the RH batters box. The collision was fierce, but Pena held on.

As a result, your Tigers are on a modest 4 game win streak, have already clinched their 4th straight series win, and can get their first sweep of the season today.

We frequently like to call out the bullpen on here, so let’s give them credit when it’s due. The bullpen followed-up Scherzer’s brilliant 8 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER and 12 K performance with an equally sparkling 6 IP, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K combined effort.  (Admittedly, the SEA staff was even better – .79 WHIP; and how about that Wilhelmsen?)

On to today’s game.

Hisashi Iwakuma was signed by the Ms in Jan of 2012 out of the Japan League. He was pretty darn good in his first year in the Majors, posting a 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 146 innings. He doesn’t throw particularly hard (he can touch mid 90s but generally throws 89-90), but he’s got good control (2.43 BB/9) and a nasty sinker which had an 18% swinging strike rate last year. He was even tougher at home last year – going 7-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He’s only thrown 3 innings against the Tigers, so no significant match-up data.  The Tigers will have their work cut out for them today.

JV is JV. Lifetime he’s 9-6 vs. the Ms with a 3.41 ERA and 94 Ks in 103 IPs. Kendry Morales may have JV figured out (7-18 for a .389 average), not much else to list here.  Verlander is 49-17 with a 2.84 ERA in 84 day games, which is an active players best .742 winning percentage.

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A few notes:

– Prince Fielder is the only Ms opponent to strike out 4+ times in back-to-back games.

– The 40 Ks last night are the 2nd most in the live ball era (43 between the A’s and Angels in 20 innings in 1971).

– Would you be willing to give up Avisail Garcia for Houston Street? I wouldn’t. I think that the Tigers can find a closer internally.

– I wrote a bit yesterday about the success of the top of the lineup. AJax and Hunter are getting on base at incredible rates, and it stems from their historic contact rates. Note that Hunter’s first walk of the year came on Tuesday. There were two great posts on Fangraphs about this yesterday. Check it out.

– Happy 30th Miguel Cabrera! Could he be chasing Hank Aaron?

Today’s I’m Surprised that JL Isn’t Resting More Regulars Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, LF

Game 2013.14: Tigers at Mariners

8-5, 1st place, 1 game up.

Last night’s win had a little bit of everything. To begin, a second consecutive tremendous start by Fister. 4 hits, 1 walk and 2 earned over 7, which was just enough time to give the Tigers an opportunity to make the game un-blowpen-able. The top of the lineup again showed why they are the best in baseball, with #s 1-3 going 7-13 with 6 RBI and 4 runs scored. Add in Fielder and VMart, and 1-5 went 10-22. Fielder had an off game including 4 Ks, but he’s not going to collect multiple hits every night, and this lineup is deep enough that on a night when your cleanup guy goes 0-5 and strands 3, the Tigers still win comfortably.

I was impressed with the major league debut of Yoervis Medina, who was baptized into the league in a very JL manner -bases loaded pressure situation. To which he responded by walking Hunter, and then striking out Cabrera on a nice outside fastball (I thought he got squeezed on the first pitch of the AB as well. He then K’d Fielder to lead off the 9th with a fastball in the same location. Fielder was walking out of the box before the umpire could raise his hand.

In case you didn’t notice this from last night – the Tigers struck out 16 (SIXTEEN) times. 10 out of the last 12 outs were Ks. They were also 2-10 with RISP. 12 base hits and 4 walks will mask a lot of things.

So on to tonight.

The Tigers face the great King Felix, otherwise known as the 2nd biggest contract in the AL AKA the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. That aside, Felix has dominated the Tigers over his career, to the tune of 9-2, and has been unbeatable as of late (if you consider 6 years “as of late”), going 9-0 with a 2.86 ERA covering 10 starts dating back to July of 2007. At Safeco he’s even better – 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA. Despite that, Miggy (.429 in 21 ABs) still hits Felix well. Look for Hunter (.324 career v. Felix covering 68 ABs) to get us going. The Tigers roster only has 2 career HRs off of King Felix – Peralta and VMart each have 1.

Tonight’s Is Something Wrong with Avila? Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Pena, C (remember, he’s a switch hitter, so my guess is that Jimmuh wants to give AA a night off)
9. Infante, 2B

Game 2013.13: Tigers at Mariners

Moment of silence for Boston, please. Really cool what the Yankees did earlier tonight.

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7-5, 1st place, tied with KC.

The Tigers cruise up to Seattle on a sweet 3 series winning streak perched atop the AL Central. No reason why it shouldn’t be 4, but with Felix Hernandez pitching tomorrow, winning tonight becomes critical with an eye towards taking the series.

With Jeremy Bonderman not quite yet ready to step into the M’s rotation, they had to go out and make a move to get 34 year old righty Aaron Harang. Harang will begin his M’s career tonight by making his 300th career appearance. Harang looks like he had a decent year last year – posting a 3.61 ERA in 180 IPs, but his 1.40 WHIP and 6.56 K/9 demonstrate why the Ms were able to get him for AAA guy Steven Hensley. This will be Harang’s 4th start against the Tigers (0-1 5.63 ERA), but he’s barely faced the current lineup. Fielder has 3 bombs and a .318 average in 44 PAs, Peralta is batting .304 in 23 ABs. Harang has frustrated Cabrera to date – .133 BA in 15 ABs.

In case you forgot after an off day, Porcello pitched late Sunday afternoon (most of us were likely plugged into the Cabrera/Scott showdown in Augusta). Thus no Porcello in the image rotators above. Instead, it’s ice man Doug Fister.

Fister shook off a shaky start in a W over the Yankees with a  masterful 8 IP, 1 ER win over Tor last Thursday. Remember that we plucked Fister from Sea for Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush, Francisco Martinez and Chance Ruffin (PTBNL).  Furbush is the only player on the Mariners active roster. This begs the question – can you name a trade in the past 5 years where DD hasn’t come out on top?

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, C
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, LF

“Slow Starts” in the Leyland Era

(the following was contributed by poster Jeff Molby)

There’s been a lot of talk about “slow starts” and “choking down the stretch” during the Leyland years. With 7 years of data points available, I figured it’s time to see if there’s anything to it.

Molby 2013-04-11_1236
There’s not. I didn’t bother to weight the numbers based on games played, so data isn’t perfectly accurate, but it’s close enough for our purposes. The most you could say is that June is a good month and August is a bad month, but really that’s just because of the volatility (mostly due to injuries) of the 2007 and 2008 teams.
Molby2 2013-04-11_1236
Pull those two years out of the sample and what you have is a team that’s consistently a bit above average. I know I’m viewed as one of the resident apologists, but I remember The Lost Decade all too well. If you had approached me in 2005 and offered a decade of “slightly above average”, I’d have kissed ya and invited ya over for dinner.

DTW News and Notes 4-14-13

A few notes to get you through the off-day.

Interesting Numbers:

1: number of errors thus far by the Tigers (Scherzer’s missed pickoff, which may have cost us a W)

1: number of hits by a right-handed hitter off of Anibal Sanchez this season.

5: number of saves by Jason Grilli this year. Here is his line this year: 6 games, 5 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 7 Ks, 0.00 ERA 1.06 WHIP. The Tigers pen is posting a chunky 5.59 ERA with 2 saves, 3 blown saves, and a 1.54 WHIP.

17: number of runs scored by AJax, tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th with 12.

19: Number of RBI by Fielder, tied for tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th wih 13.

.307: Tigers team BA. OPS is .796, behind the Yankees (.816) and A’s (.808 – imagine what it was on Friday). Lee Panas explains the low-ish OPS here.

1.361: 2nd-best OPS in the Majors, owned by Fielder. But he’s not even the top 1B in the AL…(Chris Davis – 1.362).

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– Rondon has allowed 1 hit, walked 2 and struck out 3 in 4 scoreless innings thus far this year.

– Valverde has really ingratiated himself with his Lakeland teammates.

Game 2013.12: Tigers at A’s

After a three-HR assault, a three-hit six-inning Verlander gem, and a three-K 9th by Joaquin Benoit to end some bullpen drama, the Tigers go into today with a chance to start their only West Coast trip with a series win.

The Tigers give the call to Anibal today. Sanchez has had two strong outing so far (1-0, 1.50 ERA), and has struck out 13 in 12 innings so far. Look for some more today, as Anibal faces an Oakland lineup missing Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes to injuries, and seems to have a game plan of taking a lot of pitches against the Tigers staff.

Left Fielder Seth Smith is one guy that Sanchez might want to be careful with: Smith is a career 7-for-15 with 3 home runs agains Anibal.

When Anibal does need to hand over the ball the A’s will get to face a bullpen that is not only shaky, but depleted: not many pitchers will be available today. Dotel suffered elbow soreness in Friday night’s game). Coke should be available, as is Wild Brayan. And of course Don Kelly. But beyond that, who knows? The main option though, is likely to be…Rick Porcello.

You may have noticed Porcello warming up last night. Since the one off day on the West Coast trip falls on Monday, Porcello will skip his normally scheduled Tuesday start and Fister will take Tuesday, leaving Porcello as a fill-in bullpen guy.

Speaking of bullpen guys, Jose Valverde pitched to his first live batters in an extended spring training game in Lakeland (1 scoreless inning with a walk and a strikeout). Only one walk per inning? That is looking good these days.

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We had a lot of good input on the potentially controversial BHIP (beard hit by a pitch) situation inspired by Josh Reddick. I should add that it should be pretty clearcut that if his beard is in the strike zone (even if his body is not), the correct call would be a strike. I think there are also potential issues such as interfering with the catcher’s throws that should be considered while forming a MLB beard policy.

Today’s A of the Day is Eric Sogard, who is one the few position players in MLB in this century to sport eyeglasses. Here we have a proposed All-Time players-with-glasses list, which overlooks a certain Tiger closer for the closer spot, preferring instead a fictional character.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Victor Martinez. Snakebit or not, the longer his slump goes the more pressure it will create. A three-hit day would solve that nicely.

Today’s Sub-less Lineup:

  1. Jackson, CF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Dirks, LF
  7. Peralta, SS
  8. Avila, C
  9. Infante, 2B