I can’t promise that it’s not just a pleasant dream and that you won’t soon wake up still in 2003 (or the right-side-up version of the above), but for at least the second year in a row the Detroit Tigers aren’t merely contenders, but favorites. In several categories. A very strong team on paper, even stronger than they were going into 2012. Yet they struggled for most of 2012. Even though poor defense was the most persistent leaky faucet, there was no easily identifiable single culprit for the struggles. The team just wasn’t firing on all cylinders for much of the season, and even in the heady days of September and October, it was mostly a case of starting pitching carrying the team on its shoulders, not everything suddenly coming together. All this after so much promise. Were the 2012 Tigers overrated? Maybe a little. Are the 2013 Tigers?

I’m very optimistic about 2013. Great offseason. The team is clearly better for it. Spring has been good. But I’m going to play the role of doubter, complainer, and whiner here. Gonna find some fault and invent more if I have to.

Let’s get negative:

Is the Tigers bullpen overrated? When I think of good bullpens, I think more of Tigers opponents, teams that have those three guys you just dread, and that’s with the Tigers lineups of the past few years. A good bullpen gives you the option of running out a certain 3 pitchers every other day and having a high level of confidence that not of them is going to blow up. (A great bullpen would give you another variation or two on that 3-pitcher lineup.) Who are those 3 Tigers relievers? Do they even have them? I’m not so sure. Yeah, those sub-2.00 ERAs and wonderful K/9s look good on paper. They don’t necessarily add up to a reliable shutdown crew. Key word: Reliable. Not “passable, brilliant, oops,” but “good. good, good.” And speaking of blowing up, it was on display in the recent 12-10 loss to the Nationals.

Is Brayan Pena going to be a defensive liability (I’m basing this unfairly on one early spring game where he had some rubber arm going on a couple successful stolen base attempts against him) and perhaps a liability overall, and was it such a good idea to let Gerald Laird go, and is Jim Leyland going to run Alex Avila into the ground at C again? (Having it both ways with my worrying.) The truth is that I haven’t seen enough of Pena this spring or really zeroed in on him enough to form much of an opinion. But he has looked kind of… sluggish. Not as in “slugging,” though I did see him hit a home run.

The Tigers lineup is seen as solid top to bottom, but is it really? Look at 7-9. Here “solid” seems to rest upon the assumption that both Avila and Jhonny Peralta are intrinsically better than they showed in 2012 and are due to bounce back. But maybe not, and what if Omar Infante’s moribund batting line for the Tigers in 64 games last year proves more rule than exception this season?

The only thing I can find to worry about in the outfield is Andy Dirks’s health and the possibility that Jim Leyland might subject us to long stretches of Jeff Kobernus or Don Kelly in his stead (as opposed to calling up Avisail Garcia or at the very least using the capable but presently sore-kneed Quintin Berry). This despite 3 injured OFs at the moment (Garcia, Dirks, Berry). The joy of having Torii Hunter and Austin Jackson, no doubt.

Despite the return of Prince “2013 AL MVP” Fielder and the addition of Hunter, there’s still a lot riding on the continued health of Victor Martinez. The bats are there for DH by committee, but the subtraction still comes in when you figure who replaces the replacements. There’s really nothing for it, because you can’t just keep a spare Victor Martinez on the bench. So it’s just a worry. Although Garcia and (according to some) maybe even Nick Castellanos could be aces in the hole here (my own opinion is that Castellanos isn’t quite that close to being ready for the majors, but maybe I’ve just seen all the wrong ST games).

Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, and Rick Porcello all have a history of being slow starters. Just sayin’.

OK, that’s all the negativity I can muster at the moment.

In recent news, the Tigers have lost 3 of their last 5 and are now 14-11 in Grapefruit League play. 3 games out and mired in 4th place! In the March 16 shutout of the Cardinals, Shawn Hill had a good start, Bruce Rondon and the rest of the bullpen had good outings, Garcia suffered a heel contusion, Matt Tuiasosopo went 2 for 4 with a HR, and the Tigers were caught stealing 3 times. March 17 against the Nationals, Miguel Cabrera and Infante were back from the WBC, Drew Smyly had his first rough outing of the spring and Danny Worth committed 2 errors, and the Tigers rallied from a 7-1 deficit to take a 9-8 lead, only to have an 8th-inning meltdown from Al Alburquerque cost them the game. Scherzer had a good 5-inning start in the 5-1 win over the Nationals March 18, while the bullpen put on the perfect good bullpen show (3 guys, 4 innings, no runs, 6 strikeouts) and Tigers hitters beat up on Rafael Soriano in the 7th to win it. Losing 11-5 against the Rays March 19, Doug Fister and Kyle Lobstein got hammered, but Fister didn’t actually look as bad as his line suggests, though he often pitched himself out of good counts. Though the damage was done, another good showing by the bullpen (aside from Lobstein) followed. Dirks hurt his knee in a collision with the LF wall. It was fun to see the lower-level minor leaguers late in the game, especially little guy Devon Travis belting a 2-run homer. Last night against the Astros, Justin Verlander went 5 2/3 but allowed an uncharacteristic 3 home runs, Alburquerque couldn’t keep it close, and Tigers bats couldn’t get much going in the 7-2 loss. Berry in LF made yet another great catch. How can anyone not want this guy as the 4th OF?

On Tuesday the Tigers sent 8 players to the minors, most notably LHP Duane Below, but also RHP Jorge Ortega, C Bryan Holaday, IF Hernan Perez, RHP Trevor Bell, IF Argenis Diaz, OF Nick Castellanos, and OF Tyler Collins.

Jason Beck’s guess at a Tigers bench of Ramon Santiago, Kobernus, and Kelly is truly one that I hope proves incorrect. Maybe the Nationals will take Santiago in exchange for Kobernus, who could then be sent to Toledo. Maybe he’s worth holding onto. I don’t see that he’s earned a spot on the opening day roster, myself. It’s clear enough that Lobstein isn’t making the pitching staff, but it’s actually more plausible to me that the Tigers would make a deal to hold onto him in the minors. I see some promise there, even in an outing such as the last one against the Rays. Plus, well, he’s a starting pitcher, and a lefty at that.

Octavio Dotel is back from the WBC.

And finally, gazing into one of my clouded and cracked crystal balls, none of them reliable, in one I see a future where Steven Moya and Tyler Collins are starting outfielders for the Tigers, while Garcia and Castellanos have been traded.

The Ides of Boesch is a day on the Roman Calendar corresponding with March 13, a date which has become notorious for Detroit Tigers spring transactions, as illustrated in the prophetic 1798 painting The Unconditional Release of Brennan.

Will the Yankees be able to fix Brennan Boesch? Maybe. But let no one later claim that the Tigers “let him get away,” whatever happens down the road. His time in Detroit was clearly up. Crowded outfield and two more prospects knocking at the door. The release was puzzling at first in that, apparently, no teams had been willing to trade for Boesch, but Dave Dombrowski’s words “I have tried to trade his contract at various times here throughout the spring” made it clear what the obstacle to a deal was.

There have been no other surprising roster moves, just the players assigned to the minors that you knew would be, with many more such moves to follow shortly. The lingering suspense regarding the bench and rounding out the bullpen may not be and probably won’t be resolved for another two weeks.

Decipher this one:

QUOTE: Manager Jim Leyland was asked Friday if it were possible both [Quintin Berry and Jeff Kobernus] might make the team.

“Possible,” Leyland answered. “A longshot, but possible.”

“The two questions you have to ask are: Which guy gives us the best chance to win a game? And which scenario gives us the best chance to win games? One is singular and one is plural,” Leyland added. “That’s what you have to figure out. That comes into play when you’re figuring out your roster. Obviously, you want to win games. Plural. … We’re pretty well set, but there are a couple things at the end that are going to be a little hairy. A manager knows he’s going to break a couple hearts before this is over.” END QUOTE

Bruce Rondon is really good. (And was it not I who just poked fun at Jim Leyland for stating the obvious?) A pitcher, not merely a thrower. He sure looks ready or very close to it. The question is: Would you have him start the season in Toledo anyway, for his own good? Do the Tigers, chock full of bullpen right now, really need him right away? But the answer might be: Why wait? Nice sliders against the Mets. I don’t know about you, but I’m getting tired of the speed thing already. I try to ignore it and concentrate on the location and movement of the pitches, which of course I’d be doing anyway. You can’t readily see speed from the standard camera angle, anyway, aside from what you can read from batter reaction. Or at least I can’t.

It was heartening to see, March 14 against the Mets, two fine defensive plays in a row behind Casey Crosby, first the great catch by Berry and then the nice work of Omar Infante/Matt Tuiasosopo. (For what it’s worth, the Tigers have committed only 11 errors in 21 ST games so far, as opposed to 36 in 28 games or so last spring.) It was also amusing that the Mets broadcasters picked up on the one Valverde-ism in Rondon’s pitching ritual, which I noticed (with some dismay) the first time I saw him this spring.

Who’s your favorite non-Tigers TV broadcast team? Of the ones I’ve encountered so far this spring, I liked Gary Cohen and Ron Darling of the Mets (SNY). I have greater respect for guys that aren’t total homers, who display some depth of knowledge about the opposing team and players and devote some time to discussing them. I think that this can be said of FSD’s Mario Impemba and Rod Allen – what’s your opinion?

It’s good to have a winning record any time of year, isn’t it? The Tigers have now surged to a 12-8 Grapefruit League record (yes, I just like the term “Grapefruit League” and will work it in every chance I get), which makes me feel better than 8-12 would. Statistical standouts on the pitching side include Al Alburquerque, Drew Smyly, Joaquin Benoit, and Brayan Villareal, but nothing tops Rick Porcello’s 18 K in 18 IP with no BB and a 0.78 WHIP. Darin Downs seems to be skating on thin ice every time I see him pitch, and yet he’s compiled a pretty immaculate line. The hitters tearing it up are Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Tyler Collins, Nick Castellanos, Don Kelly (5 of 8 hits for extra bases), and – to an extent – Kevin Russo (38% K rate is ouch).

Around the horn on the recently happened and upcoming: Jhonny had some chowder, Prince had a flat tire, Ramon hit a grand slam off of Roy Halladay, Tuiasosopo (no slouch with the Ks himself at ~33%) hit the loudest home run of spring into a gusting wind, Doug Fister finally pitched more like Doug Fister, Justin hurt Joey but can’t be held accountable for Joey not wearing a cup, prospect Stephen Moya impressed against Florida Southern, Casey Crosby was optioned to Toledo as expected, and minor league RHP Cesar Carrillo (AA Erie) has been suspended 100 games without pay for drug policy violations, as illustrated in the prophetic 1798 painting The Suspension of Cesar. Verlander will be pitching for the Toledo Mud Hens later today. Octavio Dotel remains in the WBC. The Tigers will play the Washington Nationals three times over the upcoming week.

Finally, what about this new all-season interleague play deal? Sensible? Good? Bad? Can much be made of the Tigers ending the regular season deprived of the DH for the last 3 games?  I mean, it’s only the Marlins.

And tell me everything you know about Jose Alvarez, the mystery man with 3 saves in ST. In the Grapefruit League, I mean.

Here’s a video card! (from MLive)

Not a whole lot going on, other then games of pepper and intrasquad scrimmages, so here are a few links to keep you going until Rondon gets drilled and TSE demands that we resign Valverde for a logical 1 year salary which is not irrationally based on his positive contributions during the acceptable part of his season last year.

– Can Cabrera get any better? I agree with Octavio Dotel that he could be a better leader. This is the first I’ve heard of a player’s only being called for but ignored after game 2 of the WS. In retrospect, it would have been nice.

– To that end, do you guys remember when we were in the WS? Seems unbelievable considering the disappointment and uncertainty regarding the team and skipper all season long. I mean, we were at it all season on the DTW. Sure as heck did make for a lot of fun.

– John Lowe makes an interesting case for why Dirksie (or is it “Dirksy”? – I heard Avila say that on MLB radio last night) could win a batting title.

– 8:1 odds to win the WS…pretty salty. Tor at 7:1.  BP has Detroit running away with the division. As do I. Also on BP – the Tigers’ depth chart is free of charge (along with San Fran). Perk of winning the pennant. I usually subscribe to BP each year, the content is worth it.

Hello Friends –

This PED stuff is really interesting to me. My reaction to the latest reports on Biogenesis was a far cry from the disappointment that I had to similar reports in the (way) past. At this point in time, I’m surprised there weren’t more people on the list. Or any Tigers for that matter (well, none on the big league club, prospect Cesar Carillo was linked). If you were to take a pure economic look at using PEDs (laced with tons of assumptions, but hey, I said “economic”) I think the risk/reward test isn’t so easy. Let’s take a look at Melky Cabrera. Here’s his WAR and OPS+ in each full season:

* suspended for 50 games.

Here’s the same table with an additional column.

And in case you missed it – he’ll make $9,000,000 in each of 2013 and 2014.

I think we can all hazard a guess as to when he started taking PEDs. Assuming he did start prior to the 2011 season, why wouldn’t everyone in his situation take PEDs? A long vacation and financial security for the rest of your life (I’m ignoring adverse health consequences for the sake of argument); I’ll take it. Sure, he lost $2M or so last year, and his next violation would cost him 100 games, or roughly $6M on his current contract. He’d still have made $16M over 3 years – with 150 games in suspensions.

Now, some will argue that taking PEDs hurt his market value last fall, but what would his market value have been had he never taken them?

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Moving on.

– Great article on the limitations and frustrations of WAR. Notably, the discrepancies between B-R and FanGraphs. I use WAR quite a bit in my analysis, but it’s not perfect. That’s why Baseball is a talking sport.

– King Felix signed for $175M over 7 years is about to sign a huge deal. JV is licking his chops.

– Keith Law unveiled his Tigers top 10 prospects list (you’ll need insider) – here are the top 5: Castellanos, Garcia, Rondon, Tyler Collins, Danny Vasquez.

– P&C report on Tues, full squad on Friday. Why do the pitchers and catchers go 3 days early? What do they do?

It is getting to be that time of year: TigerFest has reminded the fans that the season is on its way, the pitchers and catchers are starting to pack their bags (they report in only 11 days), the turtle is clearing its throat, and Opening Day is exactly 2 months away.

Here is a scrapbook of highlights from the Tigers’ Winter Caravan and TigerFest.

Well this time last season, the big problem to solve was the loss of Victor Martinez, and the big solution was the unexpected blockbuster deal to sign Prince Fielder.  This season, the offseason issues were less obvious, and as Spring Training approaches the front office has been very quiet.

What does everyone think the Top 5 things to watch are now that Spring Training is around the corner? I’ll throw this list out there:

1. Who will be the Tiger closer? It looks likely that Bruce Rondon will be given every chance to claim the job. If he does not seem up to the task, the Tigers have other options already on the staff (Octavio Dotel, Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque, Joaquin Benoit), or could look at a late signing.
2. Who will be the #5 starter? Rick Porcello looks like the odd man out in a very solid starting rotation. The Tigers have shown patience in not biting on any trades for him under his value. With Drew Smyly showing promise and the Tigers without another lefty in the rotation, Porcello is the odd man out.
3. How well will Victor Martinez come back? Victor was a force in 2011, as he has been routinely throughout his career. But he is 34 and just missed an entire season. What happens if he struggles in his comeback?
4. Who is in Left? It would seem that the job would be Andy Dirks’ to win or lose. But he is one of those guys who has been stuck with the “not a full-time player?” question mark, deservedly or not. A RHB Left Fielder to platoon with Dirks would seem to make sense, but the Tigers didn’t pick one of them up. Do we see Garcia or Castellanos there, and if so, how soon?
5. How will Torii fit in?  Newest Tiger Torii Hunter seems to solve a huge problem from 2012, when Tiger Right-Fielders finished dead last in the AL with a .641 OPS. He also gives them a 2-hitter, a spot the Tigers have struggled to fill for a while. Torii does have a habit of making waves with his mouth though, once referring to Latin American players as imposters.