Game 2014.157: White Sox at Tigers

Apologies to Torii Hunter, but last night looked like Septaugust baseball.

Kyle Lobstein continues to be a very promising rookie: he made one mistake, but rebounded with composure and pitched 7 strong innings, after which Joba Chamberlain pitched a good 8th, and Soria came on looking like a closer in the 9th. Unfortunately, rookie Chris “Cy” Bassitt hounded the Tiger bats into submission, and Detroit failed to put up even a single run against him or the 2nd worst bullpen in the league. (The Twin pitching staff and bullpen are even worse, but we saw what Ricky Nolasco was able to do to the Tigers last week).

So far The Lobster has started 5 games, with a 3.38 ERA, and a 1.154 WHIP, which puts him here:

  1. 1.096 Anibal Sanchez
  2. 1.154 Kyle Lobstein
  3. 1.166 Max Scherzer
  4. 1.209 Rick Porcello
  5. 1.216 David Price (as a Tiger)
  6. 1.348 Drew Smyly (as a Tiger)
  7. 1.419 Justin Verlander

Speaking of Price, there is some concern that he will get bombed again tonight. Here is what happened his last 6 starts:

8/21  0 earned runs

8/27  8 earned runs

9/01  1 earned run

9/06  5 earned runs

9/12  1 earned run

9/17  5 earned runs

You see where I’m going with this. It’s Jekyll time, we should have a good start to look forward to.

Game 2014.156: White Sox at Tigers

The Tigers are now, just now, 2 games up in the Central Division, which reduces their magic number to 6.

Let us begin the Magnificent Seven!

There are still 7 games left, and all of them are at home, which is a pretty serendipitous way to end the season. Although, there is the skeptical version–the Tigers are slightly better on the road (45-36) than at home (41-33). No matter, they get to finish with the floundering White Sox and Twins. Oh, well, actually, they are under .500 against the Whitetwins. Nevermind, it’s Septober, as Torii would say.

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There has been a lot of talk about Sanchez returning, and returning to the bullpen. Yesterday Ron Darling made what I thought was a very important point: Sanchez, apparently, has a very elaborate pre-start ritual, a 2-hour ritual that includes everything from long-toss to jacuzzi. Is this someone likely to adjust to bullpen work?

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Sometimes statistics are surprising:

Tigers OBP leaders:

  1. .403 V. Martinez (.001 behind Bautista for AL lead)
  2. .375 Miguel Cabrera
  3. .363 JD Martinez
  4. .333 Don Kelly

JD Martinez, in the words of one of our esteemed posters, has been a gift from the baseball gods. But also: Don Kelly?

Tonight’s 6-More-To-Go Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. V Martinez, DH
  5. JD Martinez, LF
  6. Castellanos, 3B
  7. Avila, C
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Carrera, CF

The lineup was released at the last minute tonight; apparently Avila was waiting on clearance from whatever MLB people are in charge of clearing concussion cases. I have mixed feelings about Avila in the lineup–in some ways it might be best to shut him down for at least the rest of the regular season, but it also might be worthwhile to try him out and see if he can go. What do you think. Also, not a fan of Carrera in CF.

Game 2014.155: Tigers at Royals

Yesterday’s 3-2 victory had a bit of everything going, turning points and momentum shifts all over the place, the baseball gods frowning upon first one and then the other team. It was really something. Good thing the Tigers won, or I’d be sickened by it and unable to speak of it.

It scher was a maxtastically pitched game (Zer Kommissar was in town) on both sides of the shields, one of those james we’ll long remember for about a week. The play that changed everything was the confusing and controversial one that, when the dust had cleared, amounted to no controversy and confusion whatsoever. Salvador Perez didn’t tag up, his bad, our good. Someone saw this and cried out at the injustice! (Who?) (Hernan Perez is our hero, as you know by now.) Even so, a small book could be written on it, complicated as it was. Why did Kinsler throw, why didn’t Suarez catch, etc. etc. etc.. It still took a lot to turn a mere second chance into a win, though. Pressure pitching from Scherzer, the 4-pitch walk to Suarez, a Shields wild pitch, the huge pinch hit from Collins, a bloop from Rajai, and then some bullpen rollercoaster. Oh, and Hunter’s earlier solo shot to start off the scoring didn’t hurt. (Does he have to go?)

Now it’s Rick Porcello vs. Jeremy Guthrie. I think Porcello has been quite good lately, but unlucky. Give him some runs, and maybe we have a sweep and a 3.5 game lead with 7 to play. That is a COMMANDING lead, a clinch waiting to happen. But don’t put it past the Royals to win that suspended game in Cleveland. Those guys are built for that sort of improbability.

Speaking of luck, as in “Luck” (W-L as compared to pythW-L), if the AL playoff picture was based on it, it would be the Orioles vs. the White Sox in the wild card game for a chance to face the Yankees (Royals and Angels would be the other two teams). Some say that the Luck “stat” reflects on a team’s manager. If that is so, Bob Melvin and Legendary Lloyd are really bad, and Brad Ausmus is pretty good. You do have to like Ausmus’s moves in yesterday’s game. Also noticed as I looked over that sort of team stats (before yesterday’s game):

* Last 10, Last 20, Last 30 – Detroit is AL Top 3 in W-L

* Tigers are 48-38 (2nd AL behind the Orioles) against >.500 teams (and now 49-38)

* If pythW-L determined playoff qualification, it would be a Los Angeles-Seattle wild card winner to face Oakland (plus DET & BAL)

* On the AL playoffs scene, Detroit really sticks out like a sore thumb in Runs Allowed; not what we would’ve expected

After game one of this series, I wanted to joke about how Raul Ibanez’s contract must stipulate that he plays not for one team, but for any team that happens to be playing the Tigers. (So there you go.) I mean, how many times have I seen him bat against the Tigers for how many teams (10? 20?) in 2014 alone? But anyway, you know, I’ve always thought Ibanez kinda looked like a guy who breaks kneecaps with baseball bats for a living, the non-baseball player kind. So I was amazed at what an articulate and mellow sort of guy he showed himself to be in the in-game interview during the broadcast of Saturday’s game. Just goes to show ya.

It has occurred to me that if circumstances were such that the Tigers had to choose between keeping either Miguel Cabrera or Victor Martinez, I (in my imagined role as the decision-maker) would be hard-pressed to let Victor go. The consummate professional hitter, the guy who NEVER gives an at bat away. It’s got to be a good influence, on top of the actual game results. When did the Tigers start winning, really winning? 2011. I rest my case.

Aside from the fact that Alex Avila is a nice guy for whom we wish nothing but the best, his continued absence due to lingering post-concussion-like symptoms is not good news. If he’s really out for the season, he will be missed. And now I hear that Anibal Sanchez might be back soon but then only in a relief role, an idea that does not impress or encourage me at all.

I’m here to tell you that I’ve liked Tyler Collins since ST 2013. I want him on the team in 2015. But where? Can he play 3B?

We see more and more why it’s good to have Andrew Romine around and why he’s drawn so many starts lately. And then we’re reminded why it’s good to have Eugenio Suarez around and why there ought to be a special DH-for-SS position in baseball. As long as Romine could pinch-run for Suarez as a special PR-for-DH-for-SS.

I stand corrected on an earlier comment about Joe Nathan. 7 blown saves is not only bad, but tied for MLB-worst. Part of the reason for that, of course, is that most closers won’t get a chance to blow 7 saves. Track record (and megabucks investment in it), don’t you know. Faith and sticking with a guy can pay off sometimes. Sometimes not. We’ve given up on Nathan, but then again, we also gave up on Phil Coke. We must also remember that leads and games almost blown… were not blown. Joe got the three outs with zero runs yesterday. Just because I don’t know how doesn’t mean I don’t appreciate it.

All right. A win today and a sweep and we can breathe. But not celebrate. A small toast, maybe. Then it’s back to business, the serious, grueling, blood sweat and tears business of willing the Detroit Tigers to win. I don’t think we get enough recognition for that. Someone oughta say something.

Game 2014.154: Tigers at Royals

I had to think about it, but I’ve decided I like winning 10-1 better than losing 8-4. Justin “Ricky” Verlander dominated KC without really being dominant. Pretty darn good. He didn’t seem too happy about being lifted from the game rather unnecessarily, or maybe he was just upset with Ezequiel Carrera’s nonchalance in allowing a runner to tag and advance to 3B, but that did make it less of a challenge for Evan Reed to preserve his inherited runner scored streak. The Tigers hitters jumped all over Jason Vargas right away and kept it up post-Vargas. Tbran could be right that Detroit should have maybe saved a few runs for these next two games, but a blowout was just what the doctor ordered after the last two against Minnesota.

James “Buster” McCann thought he was me in his first AB, but snapped out of it and went on to have a bit of a game there. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Of course you are. Meanwhile, the J.D. Martinez unreality show proceeds apace, and Ian Kinsler was swinging it like we haven’t seen since… when?

Scoring 10 runs on the Royals doesn’t happen every day. All it takes is one shutout loss for us to forget, but this team can really hit. We may not see an offensive show like the 2014 edition for a number of years, which is funny if you remember how many of us were concerned before the season started whether the new low-cal offense could possibly do enough to support the Dream Rotation. Well, the Dream Rotation has, since David Price arrived, been more like the Dream On Rotation. I don’t know if the oft-maligned bullpen has really done anything lately to deserve piling on, but could you have imagined a couple years ago that the Tigers bullpen would soon include the likes of Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Jim Johnson… and be among the worst in baseball? Maybe they should go out and get Jason Grilli, Fernando Rodney, Ernesto Frieri, and Grant Balfour for 2015 and have a 7-closer pen. Their nickname could be The Famous Last Words. When will we have The Magnificent Seven? Maybe someday.

With Detroit batters having been dumbfounded by Ricky Nolasco only a few days ago, it stands to (baseball) reason that they could bomb James Shields today. Meanwhile, our own Max Scherzer faces an agonizing decision about which inning he will allow the 4-5 runs in. Tigers hit, Tigers win. That’s what I’m seeing. Keep it up.

A game and a half lead is good, but it will take a sweep to breathe easier for a day or two. A win today is one giant step.

Game 2014.153: Tigers at Royals

It’s Kansas City again and another three-game “showdown.” I’m not worried about the Royals. I’m worried about the last 4 games of the season.

Pitching. It’s become quite the liability. The next few games might make it look like it’s all better, but then there are 7 more against two teams that can hit Detroit. I’d rather see 10 more against KC, myself.

But it’s September, or Septober, as the case may be, and the Tigers are more than in it. Enjoy the suspense and the possibilities. Every game has that playoff feeling to it already. Not such a bad thing.

Twins Series Coda

Tonight’s loss was a nice mix of all of the ingredients which drive us nuts about this team, served together as a big fat loss sundae. Poor pitching from a supposed ace, terrible base running, mediocre fielding, letting a bad team come from behind twice, and the icing on top – an awful bullpen performance.

So obviously, lots to gripe about.

But let’s get a few facts straight regarding the offense so we can make sure that our frustration is accurately placed.

1) Relative to the rest of the league, the Tigers are a tremendous hitting team. The Tigers’ team OPS of .761 trails only Colorado, and Colorado is boosted by an .894 home OPS (you read that right). The next closest AL team is the Blue Jays, with a team OPS of .739.  The Tigers have the third best road OPS in the majors at .742. Yes, OPS is down across the league, but relative to the league, the Tigers are one of the best hitting teams. Just to emphasize this point, the Tigers are second in the majors in runs scored, behind only LAA.

2) The Tigers do not give up on games. The club’s 41 come from behind victories is 2nd in the majors, and the team OPS is .742 when behind, 3rd in the majors.

3) R3L20 – the Tigers are middle of the pack, 11th in the majors, but the team OPS in that situation is .872. Scoring position – .777 OPS, good for 3rd in the majors. No one gets it done every time.

4) In extra innings the team OPS is .827, good for 7th in the majors.

Look, you can play around with the figures yourself. Objectively, it’s hard to complain about this offense. (We’re even middle of the pack in number of pitches taken.) Yes, we’re 2nd in the majors in GIDP, but that’s what happens when you’re on base so much. The reason why this team is mired in a division struggle despite an overwhelming abundance of talent does not rest with the offense.

The starting pitching is bad, and the bullpen is atrocious. The starters’ team ERA is middle of the pack in the AL, but when you consider the names (and salaries) in that rotation, middle of the pack is crippling. And then, for the least surprising stats I’ll post tonight, the bullpen is 3rd from the bottom in the AL in ERA, and dead last in the AL in BAA against and WHIP. I get that bullpens are fleeting and whimsical, and can be trusted as much as a con man, but I do believe that Ausmus has failed to effectively motivate and manage this pen, and this will be impossible to overcome in the coming weeks. Ausmus is somewhat limited by the arms on the roster, but other teams seem to make it work with random AAA call-up guy/free agent. That Jim Johnson is still pitching meaningful innings in the heat of a pennant race is nauseating.

Thus, with an off-day tomorrow, and the anticipation of the biggest series of the season looming over our keyboards tomorrow, I wanted to set the stage for some meaningful discussion. Feel free to challenge me on the offense thoughts above, but I think we’re wasting our time complaining about these hitters.

By the way, if Cabrera goes 4-5 in each of the remaining 10 games, he’ll probably win his 4th straight batting crown.

Game 2014.152: Tigers at Twins

84-67, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

KC lost last night to CWS, which allowed the Tigers to keep their slim division lead at 1.5 games despite another 9th inning implosion. The Royals face Chris Sale tonight, which sounds nice on paper. But you never know with #Sep-Tober (no matter how hard I try, this isn’t really becoming a thing, is it?)

There was a lot of discussion on yesterday’s thread about Joe Nathan, and the Tigers bullpen found itself a topic this morning on Buster Olney’s podcast. Rightfully so. Even if Carrera doesn’t misplay the single, it’s still a single. More frighteningly, Nathan has made walking batters a fad now, having issued 12 walks in his last 16 innings. It’s simply inexcusable.

Let me highlight the concern. In the past three years, the Tigers have played in 35 postseason games. Of those 35 games, 15 have been decided by 1 run, and 26 out of 35 (nearly 75%) have been decided by 3 runs or fewer. There’s not enough time for Nathan to “work it out.” The auditions have to start now.

The Tigers wrap-up the series with Minnesota tonight before their final off-day of the regular season tomorrow. Then it’s 6 at KC & CWS, follows by 4 at home versus these same Twins to end the season.

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In other news, Peter Gammons reported today that the Tigers (along with the Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Rangers) are among the favorites to sign 23 year old Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas. The reported price tag is $100M.

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David Price is 3-3 with the Tigers. He has 2 or 3 starts left.

Drew Smyly is 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and .755 WHIP for Tampa Bay. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz?

We need Price to be an ace from here on out. #DoItForTheRotation

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Nick Castellanos
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. CF Rajai Davis

Game 2014.151: Tigers at Twins

Scherzer went from Marvelous Max to Maddening Max in the span of a few batters last night, and a rare BB BB start by Joba Chamberlain opened the door for those pesky Twins to tie the game, 6-6, in the bottom of the 8th. Phil Coke did okay, but the savior last night was Kyle Ryan, who came in and immediately induced an inning ending double play.

Three pitches and two bombs later, the Tigers were up 8-6. Soria closed the door, partially b/c Nathan needed a rest, partially b/c the closer’s role is up for grabs (I think).

Castellanos is a late scratch – foul ball off of the foot during BP. Kelly was already slated to start in CF, he slides to left and Rajai enters in the lineup at 9.

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Don Kelly
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. C Rajai Davis

Game 2014.150: Tigers at Minnesota

Det 83-66  —
KC 81-67   1.5

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Oak 83-66 +1.5
KC 81-67    —
Sea 80-68  1.0
Tor 77-71   4.0
Cle  76-72  5.0
NYY 76-72 5.0

Sep-tober is in full swing.

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The Tigers fly into Minnesota for a 3 game series. They’ll have an off day on Thursday and then the weekend set in KC. Minnesota is having a hard time finding reason in baseball life right now, having lost 8 out of 10. I could say more on this, but I’ll let you look at the probables below and arrive at your own conclusions.

Tonight: Scherzer v. Swarzak – 8:10 PM
Tues: Porcello v. TBA – 8:10 PM
Wed: Price v. TBA – 8:10 PM

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

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Confession – boy was I wrong about Phil Coke. Sometime in late May, I wrote something to the effect of “Phil Coke does not belong in the Major Leagues.” Well, my motivation technique (we’ll call it that in hindsight) worked, as the guy has perhaps become the most dependable arm in the bullpen. Seriously. I know that sounds crazy, but check this out. In Phil Coke’s last 42 appearances, he’s thrown 38.1 innings, with a 2.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .666 OPS against. (You can contrast that against his first 15 appearances covering 2 months, where he gave up 13 ER in 17 1/3 for a 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and .935 OPS against). In his last 9 appearances he’s allowed 7 hits and 2 BB in 8 1/3, with 0 ER and a .515 OPS. Remember how dominant he was in the 2012 playoffs? We could be getting back to that.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Bryan Holaday, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

Game 2014.149: Indians at Tigers

Alex Avila tightened the screws and launched one, and the Tigers are again in first place today. If the playoffs began today, KC and Oakland would be playing the wild card game, and Detroit would be going to Baltimore.

Justin Verlander gets another chance to contribute to the rotation, as the Tigers have the brooms in hand.

Even though it is the dreaded Sunday day game after a night game, Ausmus can smell the straw bristles and is going with the same lineup as last night.

The Tigers and Indians will be hiding out on TBS for those few who won’t be watching football at 1:00.

Today’s Hey-It’s-Still-Baseball-Season Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, DH
  4. V Martinez, 1B
  5. JD Martinez, LF
  6. Avila, C
  7. Castellanos, 3B
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Davis, CF

Game 2014.148: Indians at Tigers

Ah, back in first again, it feels nice. Kyle Lobstein will try to keep it that way. So far the Tigers have won all 3 of The Lobster’s starts, although Lobstein only got 1 W out of the deal (the other 2 were poached by Phil Coke after the bullpen blew the lead). Lobstein has been more than one could ask for for a fill-in starter, with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.191 WHIP.

(Speaking of which, Anibal Sanchez is long-tossing today, with a mound session scheduled for Monday).

Salazar takes the mound for the Indians. JD Martinez will try to avenge himself for the golden sombrero Salazar crowned him with on September 3rd.

Today’s First-Place Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 1B
  4. V Martinez, DH
  5. J Martinez, LF
  6. Avila, C
  7. Castellanos, 3B
  8. Romine, SS
  9. Davis, CF

Game 2014.147: Indians at Tigers

The Tigers welcome Cleveland for a three-game set, and hope to pick up where the left off in Cleveland last week when they took 3-of-4 from the Indians. Detroit is in a virtual tie for first with the Royals right now; the Royals still have 2-runs to make up in the bottom of the 10th of the game to be resumed on the 22nd, which will give Cleveland one last chance to hurt Detroit this season.

If the playoff were held today, the Tigers would be playing Oakland in the one-game wild card game, with the winner going to LA to play the Angels. Here is the MLB playoff schedule.

Tonight the Tigers give the ball to David Price, who won a 12-1 Labor Day laugher against the Tribe on the 1st. Price has had a little bit of an on-again, off-again stint in Detroit so far this season, which bodes well for tonight’s game.

Detroit goes up against the suddenly stubborn Carlos Carrasco. Since August 10 Carrasco is 4-0 with a 0.70 ERA, the lowest in baseball over that time frame. Detroit did hit Carrasco on September 2–they got 10 hits–but only scored 1 run, thanks to Carrasco’s annoying ability to ring up a strike out every time the Tigers got a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out. Stay awake when Torii’s at the plate: Hunter against Carrasco is a career 6-for-15 (.400), with a double, a triple and 2 home runs.

Tonight’s R3L2O-Redemption Lineup:

  1. Kinsler, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, DH
  4. V Martinez, 1B
  5. JD Martinez, LF
  6. Avila, C
  7. Castellanos, 3B
  8. Suarez, SS
  9. Davis, CF