The home field magic continues, and the Tigers started the second half (which is much less than half, if you must quibble) on a strong note, as Justin Verlander threw 7 strong, with only 4 hits and 2 walks against 10 strikeouts. There was a time a few years ago where there was an ongoing discussion here about whether or not Verlander was an “ace” (whatever that means); 2013-2014 saw him with ERA/WHIP numbers of 3.36 / 1.315 and 4.54 / 1.398 (that 3.36 is pretty lucky with a 1.315 WHIP), and guys like Max Scherzer and even Anibal Sanchez (!) looked better. But here we are now with Justin Verlander looking once again like the ace of the staff.

He could have easily had a shutout, If Moya were an actual, you know, outfielder. He really does look awful out there. JD Martinez can’t return soon enough. And Moya isn’t really making up for it with his bat any more: since June 30 he is 3-for-26 with 15 strikeouts (eat your heart out, Upton). He is starting to look a little Hessman-ish.

Pelfrey again looks like he gets the short end of the run-support straw: the Tigers have career numbers against Danny Duffy ranging from mediocre to sub-Mendoza. Kinsler, 3-for-20? Cabrera 6-for-24? (and slumping).

Today’s Duff Luck Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. V Martinez, DH
5. Castellanos, 3B
6. Aviles, RF
7. McCann, C
8. Collins, LF
9. Iglesias, SS

Welcome back from the break everyone. Maybe I’m just becoming increasingly curmudgeonly, but every year I become less and less interested in the All Star game. The Home Run Derby is actually more fun to watch than the game. Maybe that’s just me.

The Tigers will be coming back from the break without Justin Upton, who has been placed on the bereavement list (which means he is out for a minimum of 3 and maximum of 7 games). To replace Upton, the Tigers have called up The Finger, Tyler Collins.

One thing the Tigers have to look forward to in the 2nd half (besides, hopefully, the return of JD Martinez): home games. The Tigers had the league’s most imbalanced home/road ratio in the first half, with only 39 games at home and 50 on the road, leaving them with 43 home games after the break.

Home – Road splits:

• .590  23W 16L Home
• .460  23W 27L Road

If the Tigers continue winning home and road games at the same pace as they did before the break, they would finish with an 86-win season.

Today’s Welcome Back from Break Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. V Martinez, DH
5. Castellanos, 3B
6. Moya, RF
7. McCann, C
8. Collins, LF
9. Iglesias, SS

Player of the Game prediction: Ian Kinsler, rested and possibly motivated by an All-Star snub, faces Ian Kennedy, who he is 6-for-9 lifetime against.

We desperately needed that start from Boyd yesterday. I felt that  Ausmus used him perfectly. The bullpen was good enough as Rondon got an undeserved win. Would be nice to see the pen give us a scoreless effort today. We’ll need it.

Cabrera is in a massive slump. He’ll come out of it.

Even after my reminder yesterday I forgot about the early start. Let’s get to the break on a winning streak.

Well, bullpen happened.

Not a good outing by JV either. I don’t get pulling JV for Greene in the bottom of the 6th. Though I don’t get a lot of what Ausmus does. Winning last night would have been a gift, with all of the trouble the pitchers were in last night.

The Blue Jays have won six in a row now. The dreaded Pelfrey/TBD/TBD trio on the mound the next three games. Remember, Saturday is an afternoon slot.

Baseball-Reference Game Preview here.

1. 2B Ian Kinsler

2. CF Cameron Maybin

3. 1B Miguel Cabrera

4. DH Victor Martinez

5. 3B Nick Castellanos

6. LF Justin Upton

7. C James McCann

8. RF Mike Aviles

9. SS Jose Iglesias

Well, if you’re gonna lose 2/3 and 11 in a row, a 12-2 drubbing is a good way to go out. Certainly lessened the blow.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Cameron Maybin, CF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Steven Moya, RF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Well, that went about as well as we expected.

0-11.

Mr. Fulmer, stop this madness!

Today’s One More Chance Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Castellanos, 3B
6. Upton, RF
7. Moya, LF
8. Saltalamacchia, C
9. Iglesias, SS

Injuries are part of baseball, but still…losing two starting pitchers in two days? That’s some pretty bad luck. But hey, there’s Buck Farmer. There’s a funny line in there somewhere about money growing on trees, but it’s not funny at all, not a bit, that in the first week of July the Indians have already won the season series.

Maybe Longball Anibal will beat Four-Hit Shutout Carrasco today. More likely, Michael Fulmer will have a chance to make a Rookie of the Year statement tomorrow.  Or maybe tonight can be one of those “that’s baseball” nights. Maybe the intense Game Post photo will help.

Still, the supposed big bats in the lineup haven’t been able to plate a run against the Indians. But no worry, Moya and Castellanos came through. So clearly, this is a good time to sit Castellanos for Aviles, because, hey, um…OK, I’ve got nothing here.

UPDATE: Castellanos has “flu-like symptoms,” so that explains that.

Watch out for Yan Gomes, batting 9th: career 7-for-16 against Longball with 2 HR.

Today’s Just Win One Already Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. V Martinez, DH
5. Upton, LF
6. Moya, RF
7. Aviles, 3B
8. McCann, C
9. Iglesias, SS

The Tigers swept Tampa Bay, pulled into 2nd place in the Central, and now get another crack at the division-leading Indians.

Here are the schedule times and starters:

• Mon  7:10    Daniel Norris (1-0, 4.09) vs. Danny Salazar (10-3, 2.22)
• Tue   7:10   Jordan Zimmermann (9-4, 3.95) vs. Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 2.56)
• Wed 12:10  Michael Fulmer (8-2, 2.17) vs. Josh Tomlin (9-1, 3.21)

UPDATE: Zimmermanm to the DL with neck strain. Sanchez to start in his place. Molleken to be called up. The Cleveland Curse continues.

Why Cleveland will win this series:

Well, they are Cleveland. As in 9-0 vs. the Tigers Cleveland

They are IN Cleveland. They are 23-12 at home, where they hit especially well. Their batting average at home is a ridiculous .291 (.830 OPS), vs. .234 (.691 OPS) on the road.

Their starting pitching. Their worst pitcher this series is 9-1 with a .3.21 ERA, but that doesn’t take into account how they have owned Detroit so far this year. Their team ERA vs. Detroit is 2.00, with a 0.877 WHIP. It’s worth noting Salazar is the one guy they did hit this year, putting up 3 runs in 5 2/3.

Why Detroit will win this series:

The Tigers are coming off of a 4 game sweep where they won two games with late come backs, won one in a blowout, and generally pitched, hit and even ran the bases well. The Indians are coming in off of two games where they got completely buried following a 19-inning marathon victory. Still, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter, as the saying goes.
Bullpens. The Tiger bullpen has been getting increasingly solid, and the Indians has been slammed and overworked. Check out these numbers:

81  60  175 Cleveland
35  18   31  Detroit

These are how many pitches each bullpen has thrown over the last 3 games, from this useful site (I don’t really like how they gave Bauer 83 pitches for Friday; McAllister is the bullpen guy who pitched 31 replacing Bauer as a starter. Still the difference is huge). The Tigers either have to jump on the starters early, or work up the pitch counts; either way, getting into the bullpen as early as possible will be key.

Key for the Series:

In addition to seeing as much bullpen as possible, Ian and Miggy need to show up this series. In the 9 games so far, Kinsler is hitting .162 (.427 OPS), and Miggy is hitting .172 (.437 OPS). Those are NL pitcher stat lines.

Today’s Stop That Damn Drumming Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Maybin, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. V Martinez, DH
5. Castellanos, 3B
6. Upton, LF
7. Moya, RF
8. McCann, C
9. Iglesias, SS

We’ve won these last three against the Rays in three very different manners. Late inning improbable come back, blowout, pitching duel. With Pelfrey on the mound maybe today will be high scoring back and forth.

This is a day late, but Sanchez is not pitching his way back into the rotation.

The odd lineup frustrates me, but I know you gotta give 27 year old professional athletes a rest from their 3 hour a day jobs from time to time. It’s ridiculous, but I agree with the historical results.

1. Kinsler, 2B

2. Iglesias, SS

3. Cabrera, 1B

4. Martinez V, DH

5. Castellanos, 3B

6. Upton, LF

7. Moya, RF

8. McCann, C

9. Romine, CF

Half-way point after today.

Miggy sitting.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1.  Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Cameron Maybin, CF
3. Victor Martinez, DH
4. Nick Castellanos, 3B
5. Justin Upton, LF
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 1B
7. Mike Aviles, RF
8. James McCann, C
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

I admit…I did not see that one last night coming. Nor learn about it until this morning. Baseball is a funny game.

Would be nice to get a quality start from Zimmermann or Verlander sometime soon.

Fulmer v. Smyly today. Remember last year when Smyly was on his way to being an ace before an injury? He’s got some ugly numbers this year, but don’t be fooled. His WHIP is only 1.24, and he’s actually improved his K/BB rate pretty significantly (it’s at 5/1 right now, versus 3.67 career). He’s suffering from a slightly high BABIP this year (.312), and he’s given up .8 HR more per 9 than his career average. Thus, a few outliers are pushing up his ERA and loss total. Baseball is a funny game.

Fulmer has had 8 days off. Tigers going for 4 in a row.

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Cameron Maybin, CF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, LF

7. Mike Aviles, RF

8. James McCann, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS