All posts by billfer

2015 Season, Fan Experience

JV Reminds Detroit Baseball is Fun

9 Comments

The 2015 Detroit Tigers season will go down as a failure. A constant stream of faint hope drowned by a deluge of disappointment. At a point in the season when most of us are watching games with a detached interest, just passing the time until football season starts or classically “waiting ’til next year” Justin Verlander gave us a reason to care again. What might have been the most fun though was that it came out of nowhere.

There’s almost a monotony to a baseball season, and the last 6 weeks or so can be brutal when your team is out of it. There are things that should still spark your interest, like seeing how many home runs JD Martinez will hit, and watching Miguel Cabrera make an unbelievable batting average surge late in the season. We can watch our young players like Matt Boyd adjust and see what late season call-ups will excite. But there is an absence of drama  and it reminds me of the Lions during the Barry Sanders years where often the team was a lost cause but we always wanted to see what Barry would do.

Then things like last night happen. A random Wednesday night with a team mired in yet another losing streak. You’re passively watching a game and things are going well, but you’re expecting the other shoe to drop. Then you kind of think to yourself about the 3rd or 4th inning, that the line score going into commercials has a ‘0’ in that hit column. You get a little more interested in the 5th as nobody reaches base and when you get through the 6th stuff gets real. Even watching at home you can feel the crowd start to react more with each at-bat and Verlander is picking up momentum fanning the last 2 of the inning.

It comes to the 7th, we’re now down to needing single digit outs and with the heart of the order up Verlander strikes out the side. It’s basically JV and James McCann going to work and everyone else holding their breath. We all know that we’re seeing something special, and the bottom half of the inning is something you endure as you wait for Verlander to take the mound again. You find yourself way more invested  on a late August evening than you ever expected to be, hanging on every pitch. Whether you’re in the stadium or at home we’re all feeling uncomfortable with every ball and tensing up with every swing. It’s that wonderful and agonizing feeling that every pitch matters, you’re stomach is twisted in knots and you hate it and love it at the same time.

On this night it wasn’t meant to be. The no-hitter was broken up in the 9th, it was a clean hit, no controversy. It was disappointing for sure, but that’s okay. In his post game interview, Verlander was a  bit emotional as he thanked the fans for supporting him and the fans thanked him for a tremendous outing. It’s been a long time coming for JV and clearly it meant alot to him.

Justin Verlander may or may not “be back” and it’s not worth extrapolating too much out of one game (though the recent trend is exciting). For me it was a reminder though. Tigers fans have been so fortunate over the last decade. We’ve watched the best hitter in the game at his peak. We’ve seen some of the best pitchers ever to wear the Tigers uniform. We’ve seen JV do this multiple times, captivate us with every 97 mph fastball and nasty curve ball. We’ve been treated to more meaningful baseball than most other teams. And on a random night late in a lost season we all had a chance to have fun.

 

2010 Season, Site News

Stepping aside

68 Comments

July 17th marked the 9th anniversary for this little old website. It has been a huge part of my life for nearly a decade which is what makes any decision to step away both a liberating and heartbreaking exercise.

I started to have these pangs in the offseason, and took some time away from the blog to sort things out. When the season started I gave it my all, but in the last couple months there just hasn’t been any passion on my part to go through the daily grind of maintaining the site on a regular basis.

I’ve been pressed for time lately, but I’ve been pressed for time before. I just always chose to make time for the blog in the past, but the energy just isn’t there anymore. My labor of love became purely labor and that is my primary reason for largely stepping aside. The first iteration of this post was titled “The End” and had me shutting down the site completely. I can’t bring myself to do it though so we’ll call it a semi-retirement. I will likely still post things on occasion, but it will be on my schedule and on topics that I want to explore. I’m not going to be beholden to the Tigers schedule or the baseball news cycle.

The future of the site is undetermined at this point, but it isn’t going away. “Kevin in Dallas” is going to start posting game threads for the time being. I greatly appreciate his willingness to step up and keep the community together. Beyond that we’ll play it by ear as I don’t want to over promise anything and certainly don’t want to speak for Kevin.

It has been a great ride and I’m thankful for so much. I’m proud of what this humble little website became and it has served as a tremendous growth experience for me. Over the years I think my analysis skills improved, my data mining skills developed, I learned about web development and servers and php and mysql and css and it even led to a web job.

Along the way I hope that I helped to advance the notion that a blog could be a credible source of information and analysis, and that I helped in  some small way to dispel the notion that bloggers are guys working out of their parents basement. I tried to do this with a focus on being right, responsible, and respectful. I think I did okay on this front.

I had opportunities to write for real books. I had the chance to go in the Fox Sports production truck and to see batting practice from the field. I’ve been interviewed as a Tigers expert. I mingled with Hall of Famers at The Henry Ford, interviewed a Michigan treasure, and got to connect with so many class individuals associated with the Tigers organization. Not bad for a guy who started a website on a whim with no knowledge of web development.

Most importantly I had the opportunity through DTW to meet so many wonderful online friends. Whether it is my fellow Tigers bloggers and DIBS members, or other long time bloggers like Geoff Young or Seth Stohs, or those of you who took the time to comment or email, thanks so much for making this a fulfilling experience.

Thanks to all of you who came here on a regular basis. Thank you to those who donated money. Thank you to those who donated their time. I’m flattered and humbled that you made the site a part of your lives as well.

Thank you to Roger DeWitt and Wendy Smith who were responsible for so many of the pictures that appeared on this site, royalty free.

Thanks to everyone who told their friends about the site and invited them aboard.  Thanks to all the bloggers and writers who have linked to my site or posts over the years.

Thanks to the Tigers organization who always treated me with respect and let me interview the CEO, President, and GM back when blog was still a dirty word.

Thanks to everyone who passed me information so that I could look smart a time or two.

Thank you to Dan Dickerson, Rod Allen, Curtis Granderson, Adam Wilk, James Robbins, Dave Dombrowski, and Ernie Harwell who were so gracious with their time.

Thank you to the mainstream media folks who helped promote the site. You helped make it relevant and credible.

Finally, thank you to Mrs. Billfer and the kids for all of your patience while “daddy needed to work on his dot com.” I love you guys.

2010 Season, Injuries

Some thoughts on the Ordonez situation

25 Comments

The news of Magglio Ordonez’s prolonged absence is certainly devastating on a number of fronts and only compounded by the loss of Carlos Guillen. Already without Brandon Inge for at least a month the Tigers lost a third of their starting lineup in the last week. It changes the outlook for the trade deadline, and may very well change the look of the 2011 team. It also likely puts a significant dent in Miguel Cabrera’s chances for a triple crown.

Ordonez and Guillen will be replaced on the roster with Wil Rhymes and Jeff Larish while Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, and Ramon Santiago see increased roles. The lineup is more Toledo than Detroit at this point which is tough on a team that already has heavily reliant on rookies. There is only so much depth.

Buyer of Sellers

The Tigers had some holes to fill, be it starting pitching, a lefty reliever, and a little more consistency and offensive pop at both shortstop and catcher. Filling 1-2 of those holes would likely have kept the Tigers in the race deep into September without dramatically impacting the future fortunes of the team.

However the Tigers holes have doubled, and in a hard to replace way. I still think Scott Sizemore can hit at the big league level and he could slide into Guillen’s spot. The loss of Ordonez though is just too much for this team to overcome given the question marks at other positions. With playoff odds that were essentially split with 3 teams already, the Tigers chances of the postseason just got much longer and it may make sense for the Tigers to flip the switch from buyers to sellers.

The Option

One of the biggest stories last year was whether or not the Tigers should cut Ordonez to avoid his option vesting. They didn’t and the reaped the benefits of his performance this year (and the burden of his paycheck). There is a $15 million option for next season that now will not automatically vest. The Tigers may have $15 million additional to spend next year, or they may pick it up (which would be an overpayment), or perhaps decline the option and sign Ordonez to a more reasonable 2 year deal.

The business move is of course to decline the option. We’ll see if Mike Ilitch feels the same way though, especially given the fact that Ordonez broke the ankle hustling on a play in a game in which maybe he shouldn’t have even been playing.

The decision to send him home

I don’t think you can blame Gene Lamont for sending Ordonez home. It was just a bad situation. I’m not even sure that he broke it on the slide. Given the way he was running I don’t know that he would have been able to put on the brakes at third base anyways without damaging the ankle. It was unfortunate, but not a bad decision.

Cabrera and the triple crown

One of several real bright spots this season was Miguel Cabrera’s pursuit of the Triple Crown. The odds were long on this one as well just because of the shear difficulty of the feat. Ordonez and his .378 OBP will no longer be in front of Cabrera meaning fewer opportunities for RBI and more opportunities for teams to pitch around Cabrera.

2010 Season, Minors, Roster Management

Robbie Weinhardt gets the call

153 Comments

We here at Detroit Tigers Weblog have long been supporters of Robbie Weinhardt, so we’re thrilled to see him get his promotion to the big club. Armando Galarraga was optioned down to make room. The team doesn’t need a 5th starter before the All Star break, but they do need relief help after Andrew Oliver’s short outing on Monday and the extra inning affair Tuesday night.

Weinhardt was one of the last cuts of the camp, and seemed poised to slide into a bullpen slot when one opened up. But a remarkably stable and effective bullpen kept him in Toledo where he only walked 4 batters in 27.1 innings. Unfortunately Weinhardt suffered an arm injury at about the same time the Toledo-Detroit shuttle heated up, delaying his promotion.

Weinhardt was the 10th selection in the 2008 reliever draft. He was selected after Cody Satterwhite, Scott Green, and Brett Jacobson but has outperformed them all. For Lakeland in his first season he fanned 11.2 per 9 while only walking 2.8. He continued to progress up the chain with stellar strike out numbers (9.5/9 for his minor league career) and earned a spot as a Tigers AFL representative where he led the league in strikeouts last fall despite being a reliever. Also worth noting is the fact that Weinhardt has allowed just 3 homers in 135 professional innings.

His promotion at this point in time though is about effective roster utilization and it remains to be seen how long he’ll stick with the club beyond the All Star break. With a big series against the Twins coming up though he certainly has a chance to make an impression.

2010 Season, Game Post

Joel Zumaya suffers traumatic injury – Olecranon Fracture

99 Comments

On Joel Zumaya’s 14th pitch of the night, he threw a 99mph fastball that Delmon Young fouled off. Zumaya however ended up in a crumpled heap behind the mound. His arm was twitching and his face was a mix of excruciating pain and terror. We’ve seen Zumaya improbably bounce back from a variety of injuries, but with each successive one you can’t help but fear that he’s thrown his last pitch.

A preliminary diagnosis will likely be available shortly, as will a roster move. I’ll update things here as we know more. Ryan Perry has only made one rehab appearance for Toledo. Robbie Weinhardt made his 3rd rehab appearance in Connecticut tonight. Daniel Schlereth has been erratic with 14 K’s and 8 BB’s in his last 10 innings. Casey Fien and Jay Sborz may also be in the mix.

UPDATE: Well, not really an update. Zumaya will get an MRI in the morning and Jim Leyland isn’t speculating on the injury.

UPDATE 2: Zumaya has officially been placed on the DL with a vaguely defined elbow injury (MRI results still pending I suppose). Casey Fien gets the call and will be added to the 40 man roster.

UPDATE Ourch: It is a fractured olecranon. Bend your arm and feel the bony part of your elbow, aka the funny bone. That’s the olecranon. The fracture is nondisplaced and the internet says that a nondisplaced fracture isn’t necessarily treated with surgery. Usually it is fractured due to a blow though and not soft tissue ripping it off.

Uncategorized

Beyond Batting Average

43 Comments

My friend and fellow Tigers blogger Lee Panas published a book this past offseason called Beyond Batting Average. It is a must read for anyone interested in learning more about the advanced statistics used in in baseball today.

I’ve known Lee virtually for a number of years through blogs and forums and in addition to being an excellent analyst, he is very adept at explaining complex concepts in an easy to digest manner. Beyond Batting Average is an extension of the great work that Lee has been doing online for years.

Panas doesn’t just explain the stats, but he also tells you why you should care about them.

In case you think I’m just touting something for a friend, I’m not alone in this assessment. Saber-atti like Tom Tango and Dave Gassko endorse the book. Tigers play-by-play man Dan Dickerson takes it with him as a reference tome on road trips.

Beyond Batting Average is available in paperback form and it is also available for download from Lulu.

2010 Season, Defense

The Tigers are a good defensive team

20 Comments

I hear it all the time, people citing fielding percentage and errors as an example of Detroit’s ineptitude with the glove. They have the 9th most errors in MLB and only two AL teams have more (the Indians and the Angels) and their fielding percentage ranks 23rd overall. Those numbers aren’t great, but what is more troubling is the fact that so many are still using those stats when there are so many betters ones easily available.

Play by play data that tracks hit direction and type of hit has been available for a number of years. This is data that has been collected by video scouts and stringers that aren’t making a nebulous judgment about whether or not the play should have been made. They are just looking at direction and how hard it was hit and whether or not the play was made. The data then tells the story of whether or not the play should have been made by comparing the play to all the other plays and how often they get made.

So let’s look at some of this objective data and see what the objective data says about the Tigers fielding. Baseball Prospectus lists the Tigers team defensive efficiency ratio (DER simply looks at all the balls in play and figures out the rate at which they were converted to outs) as 16th in MLB. On this measure they come up middle of the pack.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has the Tigers at 10th in MLB at 13 runs better than a typical team. A similar system called +/- has the Tigers at 11th in MLB at 25 defensive runs saved.

Revised Zone Rating is similar to fielding percentage in that it expresses things as a rate or percentage, but it uses a much more logical denominator. Instead of using the denominator as the number of balls that a fielder touches, it uses the number of balls hit to a player’s zone. Therefore it isn’t rewarding the slow of foot for not even getting to balls. In RZR the Tigers are 6th in MLB.

While there is variation in the systems, I just presented 4 defensive stats that aren’t subjective. They weren’t manipulated by me to make the team look one way or the other. The worst of those 4 said the Tigers were middle of the pack. The other 3 said the Tigers were above average to good.

The only metric that says the team isn’t good with the leather is the one that is frought with the most problems in methodology. It is the one that is most subjective. The one that doesn’t measure an ability to get to balls. Concluding that the Tigers  are a bad team because of fielding percentage would be an error in judgment.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.072: Tigers at Braves

51 Comments

I love seeing guys make their debuts. I despise seeing people overreact one way or the other to a single start. That said, I’m optimistic that Andy Oliver is up to the task. I’ve been high on Oliver for quite some time and it doesn’t surprise me that he has made it to the big leagues in just his first full professional season. The Tigers have been aggressive with him. I am surprised it is coming before the All Star Break.

Oliver will be opposed by Kris Medlen.

As an aside I did a Q & A with Tomahawk Talk previewing the series which can be read here.

Game Post

Game 2010.071: Tigers at Mets

73 Comments

The Tigers haven’t had so much fun in the newish CitiField and now they have to try and stave off a sweep at the hands of those dastardly New York Mets. Armando Galarraga wants you to forget his near perfect game and move on. The Mets are pitching a guy whose name I’m likely to misspell.

No graphic today as I’m jetting back from a hot and humid North Carolina.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.069: Tigers at Mets

85 Comments

The Tigers head to New York to take on the second place Mets. Justin Verlander is on the bump for the Tigers and he’ll be opposed by Jon Niese.

Niese is getting his first extended time in the rotation after making a handful of starts in both 2008 and 2009. His peripherals are solid (6.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9) and he’s been good at limiting the long ball with just 5 homers allowed in his 64.1 innings. Three of those five homers came in his last start, but he’s been money in his 3 June starts going at least 7 innings each time and allowing just 4 runs. Lefties have managed just a 209/333/326 line against him this year.