All posts by billfer

2008 Season, Statistics

Debunking and validating the week of crapitude

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I should clarify that title right away. There’s no debunking the crapitude of the week for Detroit, but just some of the complaints and theories. Regardless, I present a statistical tour of the week that left Tigers fan confused, irritated, and pissed off.

The Tigers are too impatient

This one is partially true. The Tigers are in the upper half of team walks with 21, and none have been intentional so there is some element of patience. But 15 of those walks have come from the trio of Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen, and Brandon Inge (yes, Inge).

As a whole the team is seeing 3.64 pitches per plate appearance when the league average is 3.75. Magglio Ordonez is really dragging down the average. If it seems like he’s swinging at a lot of first pitches, it’s because he is. He’s offered at the first pitch in 56% of his at bats which is well above the 36% he’s averaged in his career and part of the reason he’s only seen 2.6 pitches per PA. If there’s a silver lining it’s that he’s making contact with 89% of the pitches he’s offered at so he’s not being fooled badly.

The Tigers offense is suffering because Granderson is out

Curtis Granderson is my Tiger and Detroit is a better team when he’s playing. But center field the position and the lead-off spot in the order haven’t been major problems.

From the lead-off spot the Tigers have had a .407 OBP which is 5th best in the AL. Now every hit has been a single so the extra base power is missing but it’s not like the lead-off hitter isn’t creating opportunities for the rest of the order.

As for center field, they’ve had a .318 batting average from the position but it’s been an Alex Sanchez-ian .318 with little else. The .711 OPS is in the lower half of the AL. I’m not going to pretend it’s not an issue at all, but I’m confident it has little bearing on Polanco’s struggles and no bearing on Miguel Cabrera’s problems.

The Tigers have been unlucky

Again, elements of truth abound here. The Tigers have a slightly below average on base percentage, a below average rate of hitting ground balls, and yet they are tied for the league lead in grounding into double plays.

The offense is hitting .149 with runners in scoring position which just won’t continue to happen (the Yankees are actually at .146 if it makes anybody else feel better).

The Tigers FIP ERA (an ERA estimator using walks, strikeouts, and homers as the main inputs because those are the only elements the pitcher has complete control over) is 4.66 but their actual ERA is 5.30. Often you’ll see the disparity and it can be explained by variation in DER (Defensive efficiency ratio or the rate at which defenses convert balls in play into outs). But the Tigers DER of .706 is right at the league average. The problem is that Tigers pitchers have stranded a league low 62% of runners despite having a better than average line drive rate and better than average pop up rate.

That’s the bad luck part. But there is also a bad play component. Tigers pitchers are walking 4 batters per game which is 3rd worst. And they’re balancing it out by striking out 5.2 batters per game which is 3rd worst.

Jacque Jones has fanned in a third of his plate appearances and Pudge Rodriguez has struck out in a quarter of his. And then there are the base running errors which were sprinkled through out.

Bad Defense

This is no myth for the infield. Carlos Guillen has been extremely disappointing at first base. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t move well to his left. Placido Polanco hasn’t been quite as sure handed and everything seems to be a step away from everything. Revised Zone Rating has the Tigers infield at .689 which is dead last by a large margin. For every ten balls in the infield the Tigers are missing one more than an average team. That’s a couple plays a game and part of the reason why Tigers starters aren’t making it to the 7th inning.

But at least the outfield defense has been above average.

It’s a slump

Like any extended losing streak, this one can’t be pinned on any one thing. The team hasn’t played well. Things aren’t working out for them. They aren’t pitching particularly well. The hitting is awful and the defense has been poor. Throw in some questionable managerial calls and mounting pressure and it’s a recipe for failure.

The stats used here can be found at The Hardball Times, Baseball Reference, and ESPN.com

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 4-7-08

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Charlotte 4 Toledo 11
It was Timo time in Toledo as Perez had 2 doubles and 4 RBI as part of a 3 hit night. Derek Wathan added 2 hits and a walk and is hitting .429. Ryan Raburn picked up 3 walks to go with a double. Eddie Bonine allowed 3 runs on 4 hits, 3 walks, and 2 Ks.

Erie 5 Harrisburg 12
Freddy Guzman went deep for the only Erie extra base hit and added a single. Deik Scram was 3 for 4. Danny Christenson, Matt Rusch, and Juan Cedeno all allowed 4 runs.

Clearwater 5 Lakeland 6 (completion of yesterday’s suspended game)
Scott Sizemore is a tough out with 2 more hits and a walk today as did Justin Justice. Ryan Strieby homered and finished with 5 RBI. A combination of relief pitchers saw this one through. Freddy Dolsi struggled allowing 2 runs on 4 hits while retiring only one.

Clearwater 3 Lakeland 2
Lou Ott homered and doubled and Ryan Strieby hit his second homer. Luis Marte allowed 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 6 K’s in 4 innings of work.

Great Lakes 1 West Michigan 11
Casper Wells did the bulk of the damage with 2 homers and 2 singles. Chris Carlson followed him with 2 doubles. Marc McBratney added 3 hits as well. Jon Kibler allowed 1 unearned run on 3 hits and no walks while fanning 4 in 5 innings. Santo Mieses was perfect for 3 innings of relief and notched 4 punchouts.

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 4-6-08

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Durham 5 Toledo 4
Matt Joyce had a big game coming up a triple short of the cycle. Chris Lambert allowed 3 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings. Aaron Fultz pitched 2.1 innings and took the loss allowing 4 hits and walking 3.

Erie 5 Bowie 0
Wil Rhymes had two doubles and a triple. Wilkin Ramirez hit his second homer to go along with a single. Jeff Frazier doubled and walked. Andrew Kown pitched 6 innings of shut out ball allowing only 3 hits. Casey Fien and Danny Zell combined to finish off the shut out.

Clearwater and Lakeland were suspended in the first inning with Clearwater ahead 2-0

West Michigan 11 South Bend 5
Chris Carlson had a 4 hit day including a homer and a double. Audy Ciriaco had 2 singles to go along with a home run. Ronnie Bourquin had 3 hits as well. Lauren Gagnier went 3.2 innings and allowed just 2 hits while fanning 7.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 6: White Sox at Tigers – Live Blog

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PREGAME: I may be asking for trouble here given the way the Tigers are playing, but I’m going to live blog this game tonight. It’s the first game I’ve been able to sit home and watch, and I’m going to take advantage of it. Plus, it’s not like the live blog is going to screw up any good karma the Tigers have going. The biggest obstacle for me will be spelling Mark Buehrle’s name right.

It will be Mark Buehrle taking on Justin Verlander. Both were opening day starters for their clubs and both took losses. Buehrle didn’t make it out of the second inning as he was rocked for 7 runs and sports a Grilli-esque 37.80 ERA.

Verlander was better making it into the 7th inning before leaving with runners at the corners. Both would score denying Verlander a quality start.

Gary Sheffield returns to the lineup, but Placido Polanco sits with back stiffness. Good thing that Ryan Raburn was sent down yesterday so we get treated to Ramon Santiago.

Game Time 8:05 Joe Morgan and Jon Miller with the call
The live blog is after the jump…
Continue reading Game 6: White Sox at Tigers – Live Blog →

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

The odd Beltran-Raburn move

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That didn’t take long. The Tigers are already raiding the Mud Hens bullpen promoting reliever Francis Beltran. Beltran was a non roster invitee this spring and one of the last cuts. He should be your basic replacement level type arm in the pen. But I don’t understand the corresponding roster move at all.

To make room for Beltran Ryan Raburn was optioned to Toledo. Now Raburn’s only time on the field was in a pinch running role on Friday. And the emergence of Clete Thomas has made Raburn somewhat redundant. Still, with Gary Sheffield injured the Tigers bench consists of Marcus Thames and Ramon Santiago now. So there will be no apprehension on the part of the opposing manager when it comes time to bring in a different armed pitcher.

There was a time when I suggested the Tigers might go with an 8 man bullpen to avoid losing players who were out of options. Of course at the time Fernando Rodney was healthy, Tim Byrdak hadn’t imploded, and there was every expectation that Francisco Cruceta would get in the country.

It may be a short term move with Jim Leyland knowing that the bullpen had been taxed the previous day and he may have been expecting a short outing from Dontrelle Willis. He probably also knows he can’t (or at least shouldn’t) use Jason Grilli again for the rest of the homestand.

The move came down the same day that Fernando Rodney suffered another set back. I view this as nothing more than coincidence because I doubt that Ryan Raburn was only on the team because Rodney was injured. Sadly, given Rodney’s lack of progress and our earlier conversation with Will Carroll, I doubt that we see Rodney at all this year – or perhaps ever again. The fact that his shoulder problems showed up so early this year, after a season which was injury plagued to begin with, can’t bode well. At this point I view a Joel Zumaya return as more likely than a Rodney one.

2008 Season, Spring Training

Tigers Minor League Wrap 4-5-08

Durham 1 Toledo 6
Jeff Larish is acclimating well with 2 more homers and 4 more RBI. Mike Hessman had tow doubles and Brent Clevlen added a triple. Macay McBride started but only went one inning before being pulled because of elbow tenderness. Clay Rapada pitched 3 perfect innings fanning 3.

Erie 9 Bowie 6
Jeff Frazier continued his hot start with a 2 for 4 night and a walk. Wilkin Ramirez doubled and walked. Lucas French allowed 3 runs on 7 hits, no walks, and 1 strike out in 6 innings.

Erie 3, Bowie 2
Wilkin Ramirez homered. Jeff Frazier had 2 more hits and 2 walks. Ben Fritz started and allowed 1 run in 6 innings on no walks, 7 hits, and 2 K’s. Brett Jensen took a blown save allowing 1 a homer in his inning of work.

Clearwater 3 Lakeland 4
Scott Sizemore reached base all 4 times with 3 hits and a double. His DP partner Cale Iorg had a rough night with 3 K’s as part of an 0 for 5. Justin Justice homered, walked and singled. Jonah Nickerson allowed 2 runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Whitecaps 5 – Silver Hawks 4

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 5: White Sox at Tigers

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PREGAME: Remember when THE TRADE was made and there was talk about how Dontrelle Willis wouldn’t have to be “the guy” and would flourish with the absence of that additional pressure? Well, the Tigers need him to be “the guy” and on National TV to boot.

Plus Willis will be trying to overcome the control issues that plagued him this spring. He was even given a detention to work things out while the rest of the team left Lakeland.

The White Sox send out Gavin Floyd who improved down the stretch last year including some great performances against the Tigers. In his last 3 starts against Detroit he allowed just 2 runs in 19 innings.

CHW @ DET, Saturday, April 5, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 3:55

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 4-4-08

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Durham 2 Toledo 9
Jeff Larish went deep and added a single. Brent Clevlen was 1 for 3 with a walk and 2 RBI. Armando Galarraga pitched 5 shut out innings allowing only 3 hits and a walk while fanning 6. Aaron Fultz pitched a scoreless inning but allowed 2 hits.

Erie 8 Bowie 3 (11 innings)
Big game for Jeff Frazier who had 4 hits including a homer and 5 RBI. Wilkin Ramirez is playing again after his shoulder injury and he had 2 hits. Deik Scram had 2 doubles and Freddy Guzman added 2 hits and 2 stolen bases. Jon Connolly allowed 3 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings with no K’s. Matt Rusch had a blown save, but allowed only 1 hit and no walks while fanning 4 in 3 innings of work.

Lakeland 4 Tampa 5
Scott Sizemore homered to go along with 2 singles and a walk. Duane Below allowed 3 runs, only one of which was earned, on 3 hits and a walk while fanning 4 over 4 innings.

West Michigan 2 South Bend 1
Jordan Newton had catching duties tonight and had the only multi hit game, including a triple. Casper Wells struggled striking out 4 times. Alfredo Figaro allowed a single unearned run on 2 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings of work.

Minors

Doing my part as a cog in the Rick Porcello hype machine

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Rick Porcello’s Debut
It’s only one start, but the reviews couldn’t get much better of Rick Porcello’s debut. I hit the details in the minor league wrap last night, but those in attendance have since had time to post their reports.

Porcello threw 71 pitches over the 5 innings, which was right in line with a pitch count/inning limit of 75 and 5.

A newer blog called Saber-Scouting took in the effort and filed a full scouting report, complete with scores on the 20-80 scale. The change-up Porcello featured was his out pitch on this night. The summary is incredibly encouraging (emphasis mine)

You can see why teams loved him in the draft—he has all the elements you look for in a young pitcher. Tonight he showed a great projectable body, sound mechanics, great command for his age, great feel for a plus fastball, ability to spin a plus breaking ball, a knockout changeup, potential plus command, and the intelligence to know when and how to use these tools. Not sure what else you could want, really. I am confident he could pitch in the big leagues right now as a back-end starter, but allowing him to improve in the minors for a bit is the more savvy move. There’s been tons of hype tossed on this guy by about any writer that can spell his name, but it doesn’t look like it’s gone to his head and he’s everything that was advertised.

It also sounds like he’s got some pretty impressive awareness and an ability to make adjustments. When he got into trouble in the 5th inning, a quick conversation with pitching coach Joe Coleman got him back on track.

“I wasn’t tired in the fifth inning,” said Porcello, who was also charged with an error on a pick-off throw after hitting Battle. “My arm slot just dropped a little bit. I started to lose control a little. I just have to go back out there and get after it.

Finally, Deran and LFT Blog posted their thoughts on the game as well as some great pictures from the night (including the one seen above).

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 4: White Sox at Tigers

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PREGAME:: A win, a win, my kingdom for a win. After having no luck with the Royals the Tigers turn their attention to the White Sox. For those worried that the Tigers have already dug themselves an insurmountable hole, fear not. Jamie Samuelson of WDFN and the Freep did some research and found that way back in 1998 the Yankees started 0-3 before going on to be one of the best teams in modern times. Those Yankees did win the 4th game – in extra innings.

The Tigers will be facing Jose Contreras. Now the last time the Tigers faced Contreras it was a happy day. It was the last day of 2007. The Tigers won. Placido Polanco got his 200 hits, Guillen his 100 RBIs, Granderson finished at .300, Magglio won the batting title, and Mike Rabelo hit his first homer.

Nate Robertson takes the mound for Detroit. Coincidentally he was on the mound for that same game and picked up the win with a 6 2/3 inning effort.

Miguel Cabrera is back in the lineup as DH and batting third while Clete Thomas gets another start in center field.

CHW @ DET, Friday, April 4, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 1:05

POSTGAME: I have to give Jason Grilli some credit, he got people to stop talking about the offense. There are degrees of blame here, but I’ve never seen 3 pitches do so much damage. I can’t fault Leyland for not pulling Grilli before the damage had been done, but leaving him in beyond that was asinine. If it weren’t for bad baserunning by the White Sox Grilli might still be out there.

I understand the vitriol and the desire to let Grilli go. I had the same thoughts not only today, but at times last year as well. But here’s what sucks, there isn’t anyone else. If Francisco Cruceta were available, or if Jordan Tata didn’t have a broken hand then by all means let him go. But this is a team with Aquilino Lopez already on the roster.

What I have a bigger problem with is Leyland’s erratic use of the pen. Using Zach Miner for only one inning is a waste in that situation. The game was tied and there were still 3 innings left in regulation. He’s also burned Bobby Seay for one batter appearances. Never mind the fact that Seay is one of the better relievers at his disposal.

Other observations:

  • Robertson looked stellar at times, but awful at other times. Five runs and five innings wasn’t good enough.
  • Nice defense by the Tigers today with Brandon Inge starting a tough double play and Carlos Guillen making a nice pick on a throw in the baseline from Robertson.
  • The bats are waking up with every Tiger but Edgar Renteria getting a hit. They were also pretty selective with the team picking up 6 walks.
  • Relievers not named Jason Grilli were quite good with Miner, Bautista, and Jones going 3 scoreless innings.
  • I read some of the comments that the Tigers seemed to be rushing their at-bats after the homer. I have to say I disagree. The 9th inning they battled. Carlos Guillen worked a 10 pitch walk. Ordonez hit a line drive to center field. Cabrera walked. And Renteria hit a liner that Jermaine Dye made a diving play on. They didn’t exactly roll over against a tough pitcher.
2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 4-3-08

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At least everyone else in the organization won their opening days. Some great starting pitching efforts including the debut of Rick Porcello.

Durham 2 Toledo 3
Dane Sardinha homered and singled. Mike Hessman had a 2 hit day as well. Jeff Larish struggled in his AAA debut going 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts. Virgil Vasquez went 5 2/3 innings allowing only 1 run on 3 hits and a walk while fanning 8.

OPENING DAY POSTPONED – Erie SeaWolves
They’ll make it up with a doubleheader Saturday.

Lakeland 4, Tampa 1
Let the Rick Porcello hype begin. Five innings of one hit ball in his professional debut is a nice beginning. He fanned 3 and walked 2. Freddy Dolsi struck out the side, but also walked two and allowed a run before doing so. Cale Iorg tripled and James Skelton picked up 2 hits. Check in with LFT Blog who was attending the game and taking pictures (they’re just not posted at “press” time)

West Michigan 15 South Bend 2
Found the Tigers missing offense. It’s in Grand Rapids where the Whitecaps scored 10 times in the first inning. The whole offense did good needless to say. Ramon Garcia went six shut out innings allowing only 4 hits while fanning 5. The Surge was on hand and has filed a report.v

2008 Season, Pitching, Research

Pitch f/x: Bonderman 4-3-08

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From time to time this year (as time permits), I’ll delve in to MLB.com’s pitch f/x data to analyze a starters outing. Tonight we look at Jeremy Bonderman’s start against the Kansas City Royals on April 3rd.

Pitch Mix

This season MLB.com started classifying pitches. This seems pretty convenient, but from what I’ve seen so far the classifications don’t quite match. In the case of Jeremy Bonderman we know he throws both a 2 seam (sinker) and 4 seam fastball, a slider, and an occasional change. The data had Bonderman throwing a splitter, which looks to be a misclassification of his slider. Because of this, I did my own pitch classifications using K-means clustering and some judgment.

The table below shows his pitch mix and average velocity for the 87 pitches tracked by the system today.

	    n     mph
2seam       39   92.0 
4seam       25   92.6   
change       4   83.8  
slider      19   85.6

Continue reading Pitch f/x: Bonderman 4-3-08 →