Yesterday you got my emotional and giddy breakdown of Opening Day. Today I’ll take a look at the game, but from a much more analytical perspective.
For those that read the Hardball Times on a regular basis last season, you may recall Dave Studemund writing about Win Probability Added. That preceding link has a very nice explanation that if you are intrigued I highly recommend reading. If you want the cliff-note version I’ll give it a shot here.
Continue reading Tracking WPA on Opening Day
Aside from getting a win on Opening Day, there were quite a few things from today’s game that made me happy.
Not to diminish Kenny Rogers outing, or Chris Shelton doing what Chris Shelton does, but I think the highlight probably had to be seeing Joel Zumaya in action. I’ve heard all the praise, and I saw him at the Future’s game (from the next to last row of the upper deck). I was ecstatic to see that he lived up to the hype – at least in this outing.
His fastball was consistently 97-99, and his curve ball seemed to have serious break. In fact, even though he ended up walking Mike Sweeney, it wasn’t before he put him on his seat with an inside curveball. (Jeff Weaver may have been a punk, and Sweeney may otherwise be a decent guy, but I’ve always hated him since the helmet throwing incident of 2002. As such I took glee in the confused look on his face after the pitch) As Eddie said in the comments,
Multi-inning dominant relievers are an assett. If they are 21 and throw 99 mph while keeping the ball down, all the better. I am looking forward to the Joel Zumaya era.
As exciting as it was seeing him come out of the pen, I couldn’t help but have visions of him in the rotation.
In any case, it was nice to see him get in right away and to succeed in a game that was still very much in doubt.
Continue reading Winning makes me smile
I’m not going to be doing game thread’s on a regular basis this season. However, opening day is a special occasion. Feel free to post any thoughts about the game in the comments.
I’m heading home from work early to enjoy the game with my family. I planned on breaking out a bunch of junk food as a special treat. Unfortunately the stomach flu has wreaked havoc on the kids this weekend. Instead of hot dogs and pretzels they’ll be enjoying traditional ballpark foods like Saltines and Jello.
Do you have any special plans for today, or do you save it all up for the home opener?
Well I guess it’s finally time that I give up my prediction for the Tigers season. If you’ve been reading the last couple years, you may remember that I did extensive analysis, player-by-player to predict runs scored and runs allowed to arrive at a final win prediction. That was a lot of work so this year I’m winging it.
Continue reading Tigers Prediction Thread
Okay, so it isn’t opening day eve if you’re a White Sox or Indians fan. But we’ll look past that little fact for now…
Detroit Tiger Tales is hopping on the diary theme. This one takes a look at Mark “the Bird” Fidrych’s magical 1976 season. Here’s the first paragraph of the first entry…
April 1, 1976
Last night
Jordan Tata who was set to open the season with Erie will be the beneficiary of Todd Jones’s hamstring injury according to Danny Knobler. Tata had an excellent season for Lakeland last year (2.79 ERA, 3.27 K/BB ratio) as well as a solid spring.
The move surprises me. Tata hasn’t pitched above A ball, and there are other pitchers (namely Mark Woodyard) who have a little more experience and would have been a decent fit. That said, Tata probably won’t see that much action over what will hopefully only be a 2 week stint. Tata is also 25, so while he lacks experience at the higher levels of the minors, he isn’t exactly a kid, and this doesn’t feel like a “rush job” that could be detrimental to his development.
As for other roster implications like option years and service time, these will probably both be a non-factor. This is already an option year for Tata, so calling him up won’t make a difference in terms of options. As for service time, if this is truly only a stint that will last a couple weeks, it is doubtful that it would advance his arbitration clock significantly.
With one out to go in spring training, Todd Jones left the game with a pulled hamstring. According to Danny Knobler Jones is headed to the DL. A replacement hasn’t been determined yet, and I’d guess that the Tigers are waiting to see the severity of the injury.
I’m not worried about the loss of Jones as closer. I actually think that Fernando Rodney, who is yet further removed from Tommy John surgery will have a pretty good year, and should post comparable numbers to Jones. It’s more an issue of cascading roles with the loss of Jones in a bullpen that has several question marks.
If it looks like Jones will only miss a couple weeks, I’d imagine that the Tigers would go with one of the players currently on the 40 man roster like Mark Woodyard or Roman Colon. My guess would be Woodyard because I really think the organization wants Colon working as a starter.
If it looks like the injury will take a long time to heal, the team may be more inclined to look at a non-roster player. Unfortunately, there don’t appear to be any likely candidates in that group.
If you’re wondering about Franklyn German taking the last spot, I wouldn’t count on it. To me it didn’t seem like German was that close to making the team. His longevity in big league camp was probably more due to his option status than him being the last player cut. Adding German also gets tricky because he’s no longer on the 40 man roster. While there is room to add him, I believe a later demotion would mean him once again clearing waivers.
In other roster moves, the Tigers officially designated for assigment the contracts of Franklyn German and Rob Bowen. They also put Troy Percival on the 60 day disabled list and Craig Dingman on the 15 day DL. Why only the 15 day DL for Dingman? I’m not really sure.
Over the last few weeks of spring training, I
Over the last few weeks of spring training, I
Danny Knobler reports that Franklyn German is on the waiver list.. German stands a pretty good chance to make it through waivers because any team that picked him up would have to retain him on their 25 man roster (or try to clear him on waivers). Fortunately for the Tigers there probably isn’t much of a market for relievers who average 9 walks per nine innings. According to the radio broadcast yesterday, German has made some mechanical changes which he is still getting used to. Whether or not it helps improve his control remains to be seen.
The end result is that Bobby Seay is 25th man and the big league roster is complete barring any last minute deals.
By my count the Tigers will also have two spots available on the 40 man roster. Seay and Santiago will require spots, but those should come from Carlos Pena and Franklyn German. The two spots will open up when Craig Dingman and advance scout Troy Percival are placed on the 60 day DL.
There were several Detroit Tiger mentions over the last two days, and many of them included references to
The Free Press had a piece on Zumaya’s new curveball/slider.
“My curve can be a slider,” he said. “If I throw it from over the top, it’s a curve with a 12-to-6 break. If I lower my arm angle, it has more of a slider movement. You’ll see me do that when the count is 0-2.”
His secondary pitch combined with the fastball has Buster Olney making Zumaya his Rookie of the Year pick. (Insider link)
Joel Zumaya has added a curve to his repertoire. I’m picking him to win AL Rookie of the Year. Based on what scouts are seeing in him, he won’t be in the Tigers’ bullpen for long.
And in yet another transaction today, the Tigers claimed Twins catcher Rob Bowen off of waivers. He is out of options, so I don’t anticipate him staying with the team long. The Tigers will most likely try to get him through waivers and have him join Brian Peterson and Max St. Pierre in Toledo.