All posts by billfer

Managing & Strategy, Offense, Statistics

The Optimal Tiger Lineup

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On Friday, Lee aggregated various projections for Tiger players to find the average projection. On Saturday, David Pinto web enabled a script written by Ken Arneson based on work by Cyril Morong that optimizes lineups. On Sunday, I do the easiest part of all and stick Lee’s numbers into David’s tool.

First some lineups, and then some explanation. I first put in what would probably be the most common assortment of players the Tigers would use. I’m guessing this would be Rodriguez/Inge/Guillen/Polanco/Shelton/Monroe/Granderson/Ordonez/Young. Various combinations of those players would average 5.330 runs per game. Here are the best and worst variations on that lineup
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2006 Season, AL Central, Former Tigers, Minors, Uncategorized

Tiger Links

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Some Detroit Tiger related links from the last few days that you might have missed:

  • Baseball Analysts on the Central: Aaron Gleeman and the Cheat join Rich and Bryan to break down the AL Central. The consensus was that the Tigers are probably the 4th best team in a pretty good division.

    Aaron: Right. Detroit doesn’t have any real stars, but I could see them being average or better at every position.

    Bryan: Seems to me the Twins and Tigers will be battling for having the third and fourth offenses in the division, but the Twins strength in pitching puts them way ahead.

    Cheat: I’d rate the Tigers offense ahead of the Twins, but your point still stands. The difference in pitching is too much to overcome.

    Bryan: It seems funny to say that in the AL Central that a good offense and mediocre pitching staff doesn’t have a ton of hope for third. That’s new.

    Aaron: Yeah. This Tigers team could have competed for the division title a couple years ago.

  • Love for Craig Monroe: Greg Eno is a big fan of Craig Monroe and would like to see him inked to a long term contract.

    So DD better stop fiddling around and keep Monroe in a Tigers uniform for years to come. He has the strength to muscle the ball over Comerica Park’s distant walls in left and left-center field. He doesn’t drop the ball with his glove, and can throw it with some accuracy and zip. He is also another rarity among Tigers players of late: he is not baseball stupid.

    Now I like Greg as a writer, and I like Craig Monroe, but I can’t agree here. Monroe’s production is fairly typical, not extraordinary. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility and there is no need to sign him to a long term deal. I love his work ethic, his attitude, and I have no desire to see him leave. However, he is probably also one of the more replaceable players on the roster.

  • Former Tigers, current Nationals: Jason Beck writes about the former Tigers who find themselves with the Washington Nationals. The contingent includes Robert Fick, Damian Jackson, Mike DiFelice, Andrew Good, George Lombard and Brandon Harper.
  • A Rockies fan bashes Detroit: Bad Altitude, a member of the Baseball Toaster family has been preparing Hastily Assembled Previews for various teams. He’s not big on Detroit to say the least:

    It’s almost besides the point to try and predict a record or finish for the Tigers in 2006, because for teams with no chance of contending records are looked to for signs of progress. If the Rockies win 75 games this year, that’ll be a nice little accomplishment and pats on the back will be due all ’round. If Detroit wins 75 games in ’06, or 84, or 64, who cares, because it’ll be the exact same story in 2007. And the year after that…and the year after that…. They’re duking it out with Baltimore for the coveted title of Worst Organization in MLB (Kansas City is disqualified as they haven’t been actively trying to field a major league team for some time now). I kind of wish they were in our division.

    Now the author qualified it as a hastily assembled preview, and if I tried to put quicly put together several hundred words about a team outside of the Central I would struggle. Still, I’m not impressed with the work here. He criticizes the Tigers for overspending on Rogers (which they probably did), for sticking with the mainstays in the rotation (Bonderman, Robertson, Maroth), and for rushing Verlander and Zumaya. I’m really not sure who he invisions pitching in Detroit. They can’t use their highly touted prospects, they can’t use the average, cheap, homegrown players they have, and they can’t sign free agents.

    Dombrowski and the Tigers are certainly open to criticism. The Rogers, Jones, and Ordonez contracts all fall in the category of excessive no matter what your criteria is. However, at least in the case of Rogers and Jones the length of the contracts don’t seem to prohibit anything else (spending, player promotions/development). If you want to call them the worst organization in baseball for the totality of the last 12 years that is fine, and difficult to argue. To base it on the last 2 seasons just doesn’t make sense.

  • BA’s Top 50 Okay, so you probably didn’t miss this one. In case you hadn’t heard, 3 Tigers made the top 50. Justin Verlander checked in at 8, followed by Cameron Maybin at 31, and Joel Zumaya at 35. I happen to think that Zumaya is probably ranked a little low, but at the same time I don’t know enough about other teams prospects to really complain to much. In any case, 3 players in the Top 50 is probably pretty good for one of the worst organizations in baseball.
2006 Season, Pitching, Uncategorized

The Big Three

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John Sickels has a “Prospect Smackdown” with the big 3 righthanded prospects for 2006: Chad Billingsley, Matt Cain, and Justin Verlander. Sickels ranks them

  1. Verlander
  2. Cain
  3. Billingsley

He gives the edge to Verlander due to Justin’s fastball’s higher peak velocity, physical stature, and minor league performance last year.

All 3 pitchers are pretty comparable, and it’s really a matter of who you ask as to how they rank. Baseball Prospectus ranks them Cain/Verlander/Billingsley. On the other hand Baseball America ranks them Billingsley/Verlander/Cain. Meanwhile, Bryan Smith from Baseball Analysts has it at Cain/Billingsley/Verlander.

Whatever the case, it’s just nice to have a Tiger in the mix for a change.
prospects, detroit tigers, baseball

Contracts, Roster Management

Tigers sign 5 more

Detroit agreed to terms with five more players today. Franklyn German, Fernando Rodney, Curtis Granderson, Don Kelly, and Kody Kirkland are now all under contract. Terms weren’t disclosed, but it is a pretty safe bet that German, Rodney, and Granderson all received contracts in the $350,000 range (give or take $10,000).

The Tigers now have signed 30 or the 40 members of the major league roster.

detroit tigers

Spring Training

It’s a sunshine day…spring training round-up

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There is nothing like the spring training for hope to spring eternal. This hope come across stronger than ever the first week of camp when the beat writers are relishing the sun.

  • Add Magglio Ordonez to the list of players who have reported to camp looking better. Ordonez has also said he doesn’t want the WBC to interfere with his preparation for this season. Danny Knobler also notes that Polanco will be Leyland’s #2 hitter.
  • Lou Whitaker is back in camp as an instructor. Lou has always been my favorite Tiger, so it was interesting to hear how Leyland was involved in moving Lou from third base to second.
  • Apparently the the bullpen competition is a little lighter due to Craig Dingman’s rare injury. Dingman put together a pretty good season last year, and this is certainly a sad story if his career is over. Sam has done a ton of research on the matter, which is difficult since this is relatively unknown. Here’s hoping he’ll be alright.
  • And of course we’re all waiting to see the new slimmed down (or at least slimmer) Dmitri Young. In the meantime we’re left with this quote: “I’m single now, I can’t be fat.”
Pitching

Handling with care

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In the past I’ve expressed concern about the workloads Jim Leyland may impose on his young starters. That’s why I’m slightly reassured after seeing this article in the Lakeland Ledger. Leyland is quoted:

“We’re gonna watch them very closely to make sure everything’s all right,” Leyland said.

“You have to protect young pitchers. At the same time, we have to get them ready for the season,” Leyland said.

The good news is that he wants to protect the young pitchers. Why my fears are only slightly eased is that he doesn’t talk about limiting workload within individual games. While I know there is debate around the evidence, I happen to believe there is some truth to the Baseball Prospectus methods around pitcher abuse.

The research presented here has shown, in essence, that not all pitches are created equal. It is the high pitch count outings that represent the greatest risk for both short-term ineffectiveness, and long-term potential for injury.

While Leyland is prepared to exercise caution, I’m not entirely sure what his view of caution is.

Keeping them fresh

What I do like about what Leyland said is trying to keep his starters stronger in the second half.

“It’s not always the best pitching staff that wins,” Leyland commented, “it’s the healthiest.”

“One thing we might do is bring somebody up (from the minors) for just one start,” Leyland said.

“That way, we could back up the whole rotation and give everybody an extra day off when we thought they needed it.”

The first 4 spots in the Tigers rotation were very stable the first half of the year. With the 2006 season having 3-4 viable candidates for one spot in the rotation, it would be a great way to get more pitchers more experience. All the pitchers in question (Verlander/Zumaya/Ledezma/Colon) are already on the 40 man roster so there wouldn’t be major roster implications to call someone up.

Spring Training

Spring Training Linkfest

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The first day of spring training is complete, and it is so nice to see stories about baseball. It’s February and optimism time for Detroit Tiger fans.

  • Danny Knobler has a blog over at Mlive. His first report finds: a moratorium on talk of last year out of respect to Trammell, Pudge is more relaxed and 6-8 pounds heavier than last year, the 25 man roster will have 12 pitchers, and those pitchers will be taking grounders every day.
  • Jason Beck talked with Pudge. Rodriguez plans on playing 140 games this season.
  • While not a spring training article, Baseball Think Factory launched a new blog called Baseball Centrist. If you want to keep track of everything being written about the Tigers main competitors, this is the place to go.
  • Rob Parker wrote something for the Detroit News today. A couple of blogs have already weighed in on the article. I’m not going to respond or even link to the article. It is such a poor piece of writing that it doesn’t warrant a rebuttal. Columnists like Parker write things to stir the pot and get people riled up. This was such garbage it doesn’t deserve the attention.

detroit tigers, baseball

Spring Training

Dombrowski gets it

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All the Nook Logan-Curtis Granderson job battle articles have clearly raised my hackles. Missing from the stories are any quotes from the actual decision makers – until now. Crystal Evola has this from Dave Dombrowski:

“Curtis Granderson, I think, is ready to play in the big leagues after what he did last year at the minor-league level and coming up to the big leagues,” Dombrowski said. “Nook showed some fl ashes, and we all know what an exciting player he can be, what his speed brings to a lineup offensively and defensively, he brings a dimension that not many players in baseball bring.

“So, you have some different alternatives. It’s a situation where one of them can win the position outright, you also have the potential, because Nook’s a better hitter from the right-hand side than he is the left-hand side at this point, that he could actually platoon, and also because Curtis Granderson can play left field or right field that you could put them both in the lineup at one time and DH one of the other guys or give him a day off. A lot of that will be determined in spring training by their advancement and how they continue to progress.

Maybe I’ve got my happy glasses on, but here’s what I take from that quote:

  • Recognition for what Logan can do, which is run and wreak havoc
  • While the job isn’t necessarily Granderson’s, it sounds more like Logan will have to play his way in.
  • There are other options than one or the other. There could be days when both play
  • Recognition that Logan can’t hit as a lefty

I know one could argue that Logan shouldn’t be taking at-bats away from anybody. However if he gets the occasional start to rest somebody – even Curtis – that isn’t such a bad thing.

detroit tigers, baseball

Injuries, Spring Training

Four warming words

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Pitchers and catchers report, one of the best combinations of 4 words in the english language. Pitchers and catchers report is probably up there in the 4 word phrase pantheon with on the ensuing kickoff and in one shining moment. The simple phrase signals the start of spring training, and finally it is here.

Tomorrow morning the Detroit Tigers will open camp in Lakeland, and we’ll probably have our first reports from the media. In the coming days we’ll here from Pudge Rodriguez and probably read in great detail about what sort of physique he’s sporting. We’ll hear from newcomers Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones. We’ll hear from rookie hopefuls Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya as they battle for a rotation & roster spot in their first trip to the big league camp.

And we’ll most definitely hear from Jeremy Bonderman who was kept off the World Baseball Classic team by the Tigers. Detroit has decided to exercise their right to protect the young ace citing his elbow tenderness in the second half of last year.

“I think he’s going to be fine,” Dombrowski said. “There’s no reason to believe he won’t be fine. We just can’t take any chances with that.”

A very prudent move by the Tigers. Now if only they could/would exercise the same provisions with Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez.
baseball, detroit tigers

2006 Season, Offense, Statistics, Uncategorized

Playing with PECOTA part 2

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I’ve already scanned the PECOTA projections for Tiger pitchers and highlighted what I thought was most interesting. Now we’ll do the hitters.

Curtis Granderson

Lee has already done the comparison of who PECOTA thinks should be starting in centerfield for Detroit. And it has been enough of a theme here that I think I’ve beat the horse to death. But PECOTA is a fan of Granderson. Some of his more modern day comps are Luis Gonzalez, Reggie Sanders, Mel Hall, Greg Briley, Leon Durham, and Bobby Abreu. PECOTA sees him peaking in 2008 with minimal fall off in subsequent years. While his value is probably slightly inflated by his small sample defensive stardom, the kid looks like he’s for real.

Nook Logan

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that PECOTA has Logan’s breakout rate at 41% and his improve rate at 63%. So the system does project that Nook will very likely be better next year.
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2006 Season, Pitching, Statistics

Playing with PECOTA

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Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA player cards, and a half hour of clicking through all of the Detroit Tigers there are definitely some interesting highlights. But before we get into the neat stuff, a little bit about PECOTA. PECOTA is a projection system based on finding comparable players. Similarity is calculated based on performance, usage (playing time), and body similarities (handedness, body type). The system then uses the pool of comparable players (which could be as many as 100) to project what the player in question will do. One of the data points available is the similarity index. The higher the score, the better the pool of players matches the player in question. A score over 50 is pretty good, and less than 20 is pretty bad.

Now PECOTA is for BP subscribers only, so I won’t be laying out all the stats provided. I will just be hitting some highlights. (if you want to see what the cards look like, the White Sox are offered for free.

Jeremy Bonderman

PECOTA is pretty high on Bonderman, and a quick glance at his comparables shows why. Some of the pitchers on his list include Joe Coleman, John Smoltz, Jake Peavy, Tom Seaver, and Catfish Hunter. His improve rate for next year is 77%, with no discernible decline until 2010.

Franklyn German

PECOTA isn’t so enamored with the other pitcher in the Jeff Weaver deal. His attrition rate is as high as his improvement rate, and his collapse rate is higher than his breakout rate.
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