All posts by billfer

Players

Granderson versus Logan

12 Comments

Lynn Henning has a piece in today’s Detroit News once again touting Logan as the Tigers starting centerfielder – and leadoff hitter. Let’s take a look at this step by step.

But he was pretty good the first half of the season

We submit that one of Leyland’s pet projects during spring training will include doing everything possible to make Nook Logan a starting center fielder and leadoff batter.

Those who tried to do the same thing with Logan last year — former manager Alan Trammell and his coaches– will say to Leyland: Good luck. And they have a point. But Leyland and new hitting coach Don Slaught will work with Logan under the assumption that a guy who hit around .300 into June can hit .270 for a season if he makes some manageable adjustments.

I’m fully on board with trying to develop Nook Logan offensively, then again I’m on board with trying to develop any player offensively. But people are too fondly remembering Logan’s early start in the context of his entire professional history. Logan’s season last year was fueled by a very impressive 45 at-bat April in which he posted 422/447/578 line. It would be the only month of the season that his OPS was north of 700. From May 1st on, his line was a meager 231/286/296.
Continue reading Granderson versus Logan →

Uncategorized

Projected Lineup

9 Comments

Here are the Detroit Tigers starters as projected by ESPN.

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Carlos Pena
2B:  Placido Polanco
SS:  Carlos Guillen
3B:  Brandon Inge
LF:  Craig Monroe
CF:  Nook Logan
RF:  Magglio Ordonez

SP1:  Jeremy Bonderman
SP2:  Kenny Rogers
SP3:  Mike Maroth
SP4:  Nate Robertson
SP5:  Justin Verlander/Wilfredo Ledezma

CL:  Todd Jones

A few comments:

  • While I”m not ready to write off Wil Ledezma based on his struggles last year, I don’t really see a pitching rotation with 4 southpaws
  • Dmitri Young is absent.  I understand the numbers crunch, and the site just listed one player at each position.  However, I don’t see Carlos Pena as the clear cut starter.  Provided Young, Shelton, and Pena all break camp, Pena will definitely get starts at first base.  But everything I’ve heard has Shelton as the starter.  In any case Jim Leyland will have some nice platoon options.  As for Pena versus Shelton defensively, I’m not sure that Pena is really better.
  • Nook Logan does have value on a Major League roster, but I don’t see anyway he should be starting over Curtis Granderson.  The occasional start against left hand pitching and late inning use as a pinch runner /defensive replacement are the best bets for Logan.

baseball

Trade Rumors

Should the Tigers want Koskie?

6 Comments

With the Toronto Blue Jays acquiring Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay, they now have enough corner infielders to defense a pentagon. Corey Koskie is one of the most likely corner infielders to be traded. It’s been thought that the Tigers need to improve third base and get a left handed bat. Koskie would serve both of those roles, but is it a good idea?

To illustrate, let’s go to the good old fashioned Player A versus Player B

             Player A                       Player B

Age        AVG   OBP    SLG          AVG   OBP    SLG

30         300    377    538          292    393    452
31         277    367    445          251    342    495
32         282    345    417          249    337    398

Player B is Corey Koskie and Player A is Detroit Tiger legend and scapegoat, Bobby Higginson. While the numbers don’t match up exactly, both players appear to suffer a decline in average at age 32/33. While Higginson’s numbers declined more rapidly, the pattern appears to be farily similar. I chose Higginson because he was familiar to Tiger fans, but there are other more telling cases.

Using Baseball Reference, here are the 10 most similar players to Koskie 

958  Chris Sabo
949  Melvin Mora
947  Whitey Kurowski
937  Aaron Boone
934  Torii Hunter 
934  Hank Thompson
932  Dave Hollins
932  Jeffrey Hammonds
927  Ellis Valentine
926  Mike Lowell

While Melvin Mora was definitely a late bloomer who has continued to perform well, the rest of the list isn’t too promising. The combined statistics from Age 33 on for that group are 259/321/417. That isn’t too bad, until you realize that over half of the at-bats accumulated by the group were from Melvin Mora last year. Very few of the group played at all, yet alone significantly after they turned 33. Granted, Torii Hunter, Aaron Boone, and Mike Lowell haven’t reached age 33 yet, but Lowell and Boone have already experienced serious decline.Now none of this means that Koskie won’t be a productive player in the future. He would still provide solid defense, and can still work the count. It’s also likely his thumb injury from last year hampered his offensive performance. If he comes back healthy he could regain his old form. But then again, aren’t Tiger fans already saying that about a couple key contributors?

(Special Thanks to Chris who wrote and raised the question).

detroit tigers,baseball

Uncategorized

New Look & New Digs

6 Comments

Well, after a couple days of intense computer time and the scorn of Mrs. Billfer, DTW has received an upgrade. In addition to the redesign which is glaringly obvious, I moved the blog from Blogger to WordPress. Here’s what I’m hoping the benefits will be:

  • Improved readability: The site is now optimized for a 1024X768 resolution, as opposed to not being optimized for any resolution before. For the 85% of you with monitors bigger than 800X600 this should mean more usable real estate. Oh yeah, the humongous banner is now smaller.
  • Better integrated commenting: The comments will now appear right on the page with the post. The pop-up is gone. Hopefully this will make it easier for you guys to participate in the discussion. The benefit to me is that your comments will appear on the page – which gives the site more content for search engines to puruse. Thankfully, I was able to import all 1353 of your comments so none were lost.
  • Improved Navigation: It should be easier for you to find things on the site. It will be easier to move between posts, and there will be better searching. Additionally, WordPress offers category support. Now currently nothing is categorized (and the chances of me going back through the various posts is slim), but newer posts will be categorized logically.

The benefits for me are that everything becomes easier. My blog had simply outgrown Blogger, so even simple changes had become cumbersome. The new design also allows for more & better ad placement. I hope the ads don’t offend anyone. However, I spend a great deal of time on this site, so if I can make a couple bucks I’m going to try.

Now the drawbacks of major overhauls are that sometimes things break. If you have a 800×600 monitor, and go to an older post with a bigger picture/table, things will be screwy. I apologize for that, and please let me know if you see anything. Also, the import didn’t treat some tables kindly. I’ve manually fixed some already, but again, if you find anything let me know the post that’s giving you the problems.

I think that all the links to old content should still work. If you’re coming to really old content, you may hit a page that looks like the old design. I wasn’t able to line up all the links exactly, so I kept a couple old pieces around.

With that, I look forward to your feedback.

And most importantly, have a great holiday season! I’ll be back with more posts next week.

Contracts, Roster Management

Pena tendered

10 Comments

Carlos Pena, Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Brandon Inge, and Craig Monroe were all tendered contracts by the Tigers. Midnight last night was the deadline for teams to offer contracts to players who were arbitration eligible, but not free agent eligible (those with between 3 and 6 years of Major League service time).

Now the question becomes which of that group, if any, receive long term deals. The advantage of signing a player to a long term contract at this point, is that you could secure the player’s first year or two of free agency, and perhaps save some money. The downside for the club is that they will probably have to pay a little more in the early years of the contract than they would going to arbitration each year. Also, they are locked into a long term contract when a series of one year deals would have been possible. From the player’s perspective they may give up some money at the end of the contract, to get a guaranteed 4 year deal.

Of the group, I’d say that Jeremy Bonderman would be the most likely to receive that long term deal. Given that Bonderman hasn’t been ace-like for an entire season yet, it may be cheaper to lock him up before that special season comes along. Also, with the escalation in pitcher salaries, locking him up at a lower rate now my be advantageous.

UPDATE: Here is a complete list of non-tenders from around the league.

Uncategorized

Suggested Reading and Sadness

11 Comments

All’s quiet in Tiger land, and looks to remain that way. Tomorrow (Tuesday) is the tender deadline, and really the only player in question for Detroit is Carlos Pena. I fully expect the Tigers to offer Pena a contract, because if they weren’t planning on it they could have actually retained a player in the Rule 5 draft. Plus, Pena is too good to let walk – although a previous regime let Tony Clark go for nothing.

Other arbitration eligible players such as Brandon Inge, Craig Monroe, and Mike Maroth will most assuredly be offered contracts.

Although things are relatively quiet, my fellow bloggers are keeping things interesting. Brian has posted a tidy recap of the Tiger’s 1901 season. Fortunately there are a lot of Tiger seasons so if Brian gets favorable reviews he might do this some more.

And if you want to get geeky instead of historical, Lee continues his series looking at run production.

Don
Finally, for those who were curious about the family situation I mentioned on Friday, my father-in-law passed away rather unexpectedly. He had some health issues, but his passing took everyone by surprise.

While Don didn’t read this site, he wasn’t so much a computer guy, he was a huge baseball fan. Like so many from his generation and the Detroit area, he spent the majority of summer months with Ernie Harwell plugged into his ear.

During the visitation, one of Don’s old high school classmates reminisced that “Don was a heck of a pitcher, probably the best player on our team.” Don instilled jis love of baseball (and many, many, more admirable traits) in his two sons, and his youngest daughter (aka Mrs. Billfer) who all played as kids.

Don had a tremendous work ethic, and it was a race to see what would happen first, retirement or age 70 – 70 won. Don didn’t argue, but he didn’t give in. He spoke volumes without saying hardly anything. He didn’t ask for help, but always offered it. In short a great man.

After suffering several strokes, Don was relegated to a wheel chair and while his mind was intact, his speech wasn’t. For a proud, self-sufficient man the last couple years were probably very difficult for him, even moreso because he couldn’t communicate. Ultimately, he’s happier now in heaven with his wife who passed away just last year, but it doesn’t mean that those he left behind aren’t hurting.

Thank you for reading this, learning a little bit about Don, and indulging me this off-topic post.

Uncategorized

Weekend Open Thread

11 Comments

Due to some family related issues, I probably won’t be posting this weekend. However, I had a couple of things to cover:

1. Based on feedback I changed the look of the comments, they should be easier to read and they now match the site colors.

2. I’m in need of help with CSS for the redesign (it’s not massive). I think I get it all figured out, but then it doesn’t work in IE. So I fix it in IE, and break it in Firefox. I’m just not bright enough and have spent too much time with trial and error. If you are a wiz with floats and such and would be willing to donate 30 minutes to help me, please email me at bill@detroittigersweblog.com

Finally, while I said this was an open thread I’ll suggest a topic:
Based on comments others have made in various posts, what about Nomar Garciaparra? Is he worth Kenny Rogers money (as Tim put it)? Do you guarantee a second year or work out a vesting option (be wary based on what happened with Dmitri Young)? Is it worth having him if it means giving up Carlos Pena?

Roster Management

On Vance Wilson Resigning…

16 Comments

Earlier in the week, Vance Wilson agreed to a one year contract for $750,000. While I hold no grudge against Vance, I’m less than enthused from a roster management stand point. I know it’s not a popular viewpoint, but I’d rather see Brandon Inge resume backup catcher duties.

Now there is nothing wrong with Vance Wilson as the backup catcher. He plays solid defense, the pitching staff seemed comfortable with him, and by all accounts he was the ultimate team player. Any chubby white guy who will break dance in the dugout gets my admiration. He had a very poor year offensively, but teams don’t typically carry a backup catcher for their sticks. But wouldn’t it be great if a team didn’t need to explicitly carry a backup catcher?

Well, the Tigers have that luxury in Brandon Inge. Inge could still be the main thirdbase man, and also backup Pudge. Omar Infante, could be the extra infielder on days when Inge is behind the plate. Infante, who has talent and is still young, needs playing time. The Tigers (and Infante) need to find out if Omar’s 2004 season was a glimpse at his potential or an abberration. When Inge catches the Tigers would be giving up some defense at third, while gaining some behind the plate.

But then there is the whole, “Brandon Inge can’t hit when he’s catching” belief. With the way Inge started last year, I had even begun to buy into the theory. However, his 236/282/400 line after the All Star break has me doubting that theory. I’m pretty sure Brandon could hit that well even as a catcher, which would be a mild upgrade over Wilson. With Omar taking Brandon’s at-bats at third (or essentially taking Wilson’s at-bats) it stands to be a slight net offensive gain.

Then there is the matter of roster configuration. The Tigers have 3 first base/DH types, which is tough to carry on a roster. By utlizing Inge’s versatility and freeing up the backup catcher position, it would make it easier for both Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena to come back. If it came down to keeping one of Pena/Young or Vance Wilson, I’d have to go with Pena/Young.

Uncategorized

Mike Illitch Talks

15 Comments

An interview with Mike Illitch was circulating on AP today (oddly enough though not in Detroit papers). In the interview Illitch concedes he screwed up in his GM hirings when he bought the team after Bill Lajoie said no. He also concedes that he’s not happy with his tenure.

“I’m running out of time with the Tigers – we’re in our 13th year,” Ilitch said Tuesday in an interview with The Associated Press. “If we hit the 15-year mark, I’ll be very concerned.”

Illitch has taken a lot of criticism for his ownership of the Tigers. Quite frankly given the team’s record it is deserved. When he clamped down the payroll after the 2000 season he rightly took a lot of flack. The team seemed to be changing direction each year. However, the criticism that he doesn’t care about the Tigers isn’t fair. Given his spending the last 3 offseason it is clear he was embarrased by the disaster that was 2003.

The article concludes with Illitch wanting to spend more money – if the team is competitive:

“If we can make a significant improvement this year, then I can treat it like I treated the Red Wings, and that would be, `OK, you’ve shown me something now, we are legitimate contenders, so whatever you need you’re going to get.’ But you’ve got to work yourself up to that,” he said. “We’ve got a lot of tradition and we’ve got a lot of baseball fans out there just waiting for something good for the city and baseball.”

Bases Contributed Percentage
New Tiger blog Tiger Town is playing with a new stat called bases contributed percentage. The stat combines baserunning with other offensive metrics to provide a more complete picture. Amongst Tigers Chris Shelton still fairs best followed by Carlos Pena and Curtis Granderson. My only quibble with the stat is that Ron removes HBP. Considering it is an offensive event, that some players are more adept at I think it should probably be included.

In any case, it is great to see so much fresh Tiger writing.

Minors, Roster Management

Kenny Baugh Traded

6 Comments

Former Detroit Tiger first round pick Kenny Baugh was traded today to the San Diego Padres. In return they get low A pitcher Ricky Steik. Steik had a 2.40 ERA as a 21 year old in the Midwest League last year. He had 7.95 K/9IP against 3.6 BB/9IP. Steik was a 7th round selection in the 2004 draft.

As for Baugh, I’m kind of surprised to see him traded. I believe he had one option left. If that was the case he could have stayed in Toledo next year. I know he’s not the same pitcher that the Tigers drafted, but he was effective last year. I thought he could have at least earned a shot as a long starter.

Uncategorized

Soliciting Feedback

14 Comments

Typically once a year I try and get feedback about the site. I realized I hadn’t done that this year, so here’s your chance to rip me or praise me.

I’m currently working on a redesign, so any comments related to layout would be appreciated. What do you like about the current layout, what don’t you like? Do you mind that there are ads on the site? Are they too prominent or don’t you notice them? Is the site readable? Is the text to big or too small? Is navigation easy or not the least bit intuitive? And any other comments are appreciated as well.

Also, I’d love to know what you think of the content. What are your favorite types of posts? Would you prefer I did more short posts, or do you like it better when I save up a couple days worth of things? Do you like the numbers-heavy posts or simply the commentary.

As always, I won’t promise that I’ll implement everything that gets suggested. However, I appreciate all of you and value your opinions. I also take a lot of pride in the site, and want to make it as useful to the reader as possible.

Thanks for indulging me in this non-baseball activity. Feel free to leave any comments, or if you’d prefer you can email me at bill at detroittigersweblog.com. And in case you were wondering, here is the design I’m currently working on:

Contracts

About Payroll Flexibility

6 Comments

When I interviewed Dave Dombrowski last January, one question asked was about payroll flexiblity. At the time, the Tigers only had 3 players signed beyond 2005, Ivan Rodriguez, Troy Percival, and Carlos Guillen (Magglio Ordonez had yet to sign, and Dmitri Young had the vesting option). Since then the Tigers have locked up additional players, and lost some of their flexiblity.

So far the Tigers have $65 million commited to 10 players in 2006. Of those 10 players, one of them probably will never throw a pitch (Troy Percival), and the other isn’t even a lock to make the roster (Justin Verlander). The Tigers also have 3 players who are in line for hefty raises in Craig Monroe, Mike Maroth, and Jeremy Bonderman. The trio will probably fetch $10 million between them easily – especially with the contracts given to starting pichers this year. Essentially the Tigers will be paying $75 million for half a roster.

In 2007 things are a little better. Dmitri Young’s salary comes off the books (assuming the team doesn’t pick up the $7 million option, as does Troy Percival’s. But even with that relief the committed payroll is $47 million. By that time, Nate Robertson, Fernando Rodney, Franklyn German, Omar Infante, and probably Chris Shelton, will join the arbitration ranks, and hopefully Bonderman will have shown enough to warrant $5 million a year.

Going forward another year to 2008 probably isn’t worthwhile because I’m not sure how much roster continuity you can count on, but we’ll do it anyways. In 2008 the Tigers only have Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, and Justin Verlander. Pudge has a $13 million team option with a $3 million buyout. Bonderman will be in his last year before free agency, and Joel Zumaya and Curtis Granderson will be in their last years of indentured servitude.

Next year will be expensive for the Tigers, and 2007 won’t be a picnic either. However, they are well positioned to take on contracts in 2008. In addition, if the promise of the 2005 draft class at least partially fulfills itself, there could be a nice mix of cheap young talent and established homegrown talent. I don’t know how this compares to other teams, but things look promising.

And that is what I like about the Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones contracts. I think both are on the steep side – especially given their ages. However, any pain is in the short term. Detroit isn’t hooked into long, potentially crippling contracts. Afterall, they already have one of those with Ordonez.

I don’t think I’ve sat down and looked 3 years out at the Tigers before, but I have to say I’m encouraged. I know another year of development doesn’t sound promising to Tiger fans, but 5/50 contracts aren’t the answer.