All posts by billfer

The Rothschild Files

According to John Lowe, the Tigers have asked for permission to interview Larry Rothschild for pitching coach. Rothschild has been the pitching coach for the Chicago Cubs for the last 4 seasons. And let’s look at his track record.

During that time the Cubs have lost Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for a significant amount of time due to inury. In 2005, Cubs pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior ranked 2nd and 3rd in all of baseball in pitcher abuse points. Prior and Zambrano combined had 8 outings in which they threw more than 122 pitches. Zambrano has been in the top 10 in pitcher abuse points each of the last 3 years – he’s 25 years old. Prior was 4th in the league in PAP in 2003, as a rookie.

I don’t know if this is Rothschild’s fault or Dusty Baker’s, but considering the Tigers are trying to build a young pitching staff, this stuff scares me. Especially combined with Jim Leyland’s use of young pitchers in 1998. But in all fairness, Mark Prior thinks highly enough of him that he would like Rothschild back next year.

Also, in an interview with Baseball Prospectus, pitching mechanics guru Tom House had this to say when asked about the best pitching coaches in the game:

(Larry) Rothschild is in the middle of new- and old-school, and gives a bit of the best of both worlds. Some of these guys just get more publicity than others, but there are more good ones now than there have been in the past.

Other information I found about Rothschild is that he is a proponent of the change-up, much like Bob Cluck. It was something he stressed heavily during a managing stint in Tampa.

It’s nice to see some positive comments. However, given that the Tigers are staking a large part of our hopes to Bonderman/Verlander/Zumaya, I still find myself apprehensive.

Other Stuff
-David Espinosa is off to a strong start in the Arizona Fall League. In his first two games he’s gone 5 for 9 with 3 doubles and a stolen base. Other Tigers in the AFL are Don Kelly (0 for 4), Kody Kirkland (no action), Mark Woodyard, Adam Peterson (allowed 2 homers in 1 1/3), and Humberto Sanchez.

Manager Carousel Wrap-up

My thoughts, for what they’re worth on the events of the last two days…

On Jim Leyland and the press conference
I have to say that I was impressed with Leyland’s answers at the press conference. I liked his very frank honesty. Although I don’t believe that he doesn’t know much about the club he’s taking over. For someone that was preaching preparation, I have a hard time believing he doesn’t know what he’s getting into. Either through the media relations staff, Dave Dombrowski, or his own preparation, he knew what questions would be coming, and he was prepared with answers.

Will he be a good fit for the Tigers? Probably. One of my biggest concerns with Leyland was the fact he quit his last job – six years ago. He addressed that right away, and was very frank about it. It remains to be seen if the same thing will happen again, but for now I’ll take his answer at face value.

My other concern is how he handled his young pitching staff in Florida. That wasn’t addressed in the press conference, and remains a major concern given the age of the Tiger rotation next year. Especially given the fact that both Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya will probably be called on to contribute in some way. As for how he handled the rotation in Colorado, it is hard to say. For one thing it was Colorado, and normal rules for judging pitcher abuse probably don’t apply. And another thing, his rotation was comprised of guys in their late 20’s and early 30’s as opposed to tender 23 year old arms.

It will be interesting to see how much influence the front office has in pitcher usage, and who Leyland tabs as his pitching coach.

On the process
I’m actually not that upset with the way things went down. It’s pretty clear that Dombrowski wasn’t looking to hire a new manager, he was looking to hire Leyland. Whether or not that is the right move remains to be seen, but if Dombrowski was getting the guy he wanted then why wait? With that being the case it doesn’t bother me that the process moved so quickly. It does make you wonder though, as Luke commented, if Leyland wasn’t available would Trammell still be manager?

As for cursory interviews of Juan Samuel and Bruce Fields, I have to believe that they were fully aware of the situation. Hopefully the Tigers will make room for them within the organization in exchange for their loyalty.

On Trammell
For many long term fans of the Tigers, this move hurts. As fans we typically cheer for the uniform more than the individual. In Trammell’s case he was the uniform. His years of service to the organization, always executed with class and professionalism, became what we wanted the English D to represent. He defined the uniform as much, if not more, than the uniform defined our admiration for him. Because of that, it is hard not to feel a little bit empty when you realize that Trammell will never wear that uniform again.

I encourage you to read this passionate and well thought out comment by Cameron

2005 in Review – Runs Created

I have a number of posts planned to take a look at the 2005 season. The first of which is a look at runs created by position.

I apologize for the size of the table below, but I wanted to take at how productive each position was this year compared to last year. I also wanted show who was producing what. The 2004 season is on the left, and 2005 is on the right.

(EDIT: I’ll try to fix this later, but the table is unreadable when you view it in a browswer because it is too big. If you want to see it, the best bet is to right-click and save it then view the JPG. Sorry about making it so difficult)
(EDIT 2: In my latest attempt to fix it, I uploaded an older version. I’m going to take the table down at this point, and I’ll fix it this evening. Sorry again)
(EDIT 3: OK, I think it’s fixed.)

RC Chart

What becomes readily evident is that the Tigers failed to improve significantly at any position offensively, while experiencing significant declines at catcher, shortstop, and to a lesser extent centerfield.

While declines at shortstop were to be expected, getting 50% of the previous year’s production was a significant drop-off. The decline is of course attributable to Carlos Guillen’s injury, the fact that he probably couldn’t reproduce the previous year, and Omar Infante’s poor play.

Catcher was the other large drop-off. Like with Guillen, expecting Pudge to reproduce the previous season – regardless of the weight loss – wasn’t realistic. However, Pudge’s inability to take a walk, his dip in batting average, and his resulting slugging percentage proved to be a huge hole in the lineup.

I was actually surprised to see that from an offensive perspective, the Tigers got 20 fewer runs from centerfield. I was a huge proponent of letting Alex Sanchez go. Unfortunately, the Ordonez injury forced Nook Logan into the lineup where he consumed 57% of the plate apperances despite poor production. While Curtis Granderson was a very nice addition, he was only in center a quarter of the time.

First base was an interesting position in that despite terrible numbers from Carlos Pena the first two months of the season, the position ended up essentially the same as 2004. Thanks to Pena’s renaissance and Chris Shelton’s emergence the team managed to get acceptable run generation.

Aside from catcher, the position that was most disappointing was right field. While declines were expected at short and catcher, right field was to be the position where the biggest gains would be made. Unfortunately Magglio Ordonez only had half of the PA’s in right. And while his production was decent, it wasn’t at the level that most had hoped for. So rightfield was pretty much the same as 2004, but the Tigers were definitely counting on more production.

When looking at the offense performances from this perspective, it’s hard to see how this team would be expected to win more games than last year. I’ll be taking additional looks at the offense, as well as the defense and pitching in the coming weeks.

My take on Trammell

I’ve spent quite a bit of space on this site, and on various message boards defending Alan Trammell. I’ve probably been a little more vigorous in defending him because 1. I wanted him to succeed because of his playing career and the fact he is truly a “good guy” 2. I thought he received way more criticism than he deserved. While some of it was fair, a lot of it was nonsensical.

I found myself disagreeing with his managerial moves on a somewhat regular basis, but I didn’t think the moves were wrong. I could see the reasoning for making the decisions, even if I didn’t agree with them. Sure there were a couple times that I thought were really bad errors in judgement (the Chris Spurling/White Sox incident was probably the worst), but by and large I had a hard time finding instances where he outright cost the team games.

With that in mind, I had a hard time thinking he should be fired. Part of it is because I don’t think that managers in baseball really are that important. I think that in baseball more than other sports, the manager is more dependent on the talent that he is dealt. There is only so much scheming a manager can do to overcome a poor offense or poor pitching.

I don’t buy the argument that the record should be better because the payroll is so high – at least from the standpoint of holding that against Trammell. He didn’t allocate the payroll, and he didn’t put 27% of that payroll on the disabled list.

The second half of the season he was working with a bullpen that was depleted to say the least. I don’t blame the collapse on the Kyle Farnsworth deal because the Tigers traded away their closer. The lack of a closer down the stretch was far from the Tigers biggest problem – but it did significantly diminish the talent available in the late innings.

What was probably his final undoing was the reports out of the clubhouse. Some reports said the lockeroom was hell, while others said it was overblown. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I think Trammell deserved one more year. I don’t think any manager could have accomplished much more than Trammell did. Dave Dombrowski spoke of “getting to the next level” but I’m not really sure what that means. Is he talking contention or a winning record? Both would have been a stretch given the circumstances this season. That being said, I understand the move. As a Tiger fan part of me is eager to move forward, but part of me is extemely saddened at the same time. Alan Trammell has endured a miserable final month wearing the Olde English D, and yet he’s done it as a true professional with tremendous class and dignity.

Jim Leyland is already in town being interviewed, and an annoucement this week wouldn’t surprise me. Dombrowski has already interviewed Bruce Fields and Juan Samuel for the position – despite stating that he’s looking for a veteran manager. That should alleviate Bud Selig’s concerns about interviewing minorities which should further expedite the process. Whoever the next manager is I wish them the best of luck.

The High Road

Here’s a full page ad that is running in today’s Detroit News sports section:

To the greatest sports fans in the world and to a great sports franchise

As to the fans, while I may no longer be a Tiger, I want you all to know that all your support, cheers and good wishes over the years were greatly appreciated and will always be with me. To the Tigers, I thank you for giving me an opportunity to live my dream as a professional ball player. I can’t thank the fans and the organization enough for all your support during my career in Detroit. Thanks and keep the faith

-Bobby Higginson #4

It’s a nice gesture and classy move towards a city that hasn’t treated him so well the last few years. Higginson went from a blue collar fan favorite up through 2000 (Darren McCarty on a baseball field) to a scapegoat for all the teams problems since then.

From the start of his career through the 2000 season, Higginson hit 291/367/489 line with 134 homers. In 1996 he posted an OPS+ of 146 (for those unfamiliar with OPS+ essentially his season was 46% better than average – a significant amount). He followed that up with seasons of OPS+ of 133 and 114 before struggling through an injury plagued season in 1999.

In 2000, which coincided with his free agent contract year, he rebounded for an OPS+ of 132. In the process he hit some of those magical seasonal milestones – .300 batting average, 30 homers, and 100 RBI. Bobby cashed in and signed a 4 year $40 million contract with a no trade clause so he could stay in the Detroit. He built a house in Detroit, and for quite awhile was the only Tiger to live in Detroit year-round.

The story was going perfect. A hard working Detroit athlete that embraced the city looked like he’d finish his career here. The team was coming off a relatively strong season, and were set to take the next step forward – especially after clubhouse cancer Juan Gonzalez was gone. But things didn’t go according to plan.

In 2001 the team regressed to 66 wins, and Higginson’s performance slid to an OPS+ of 116. It was a decent season, but the .277 average, 17 homers and 71 RBI weren’t the All Star numbers that were expected just weren’t there. More tough seasons the next couple years for the team and Higginson left a lot of people frustrated. As the highest paid player on a bad team, Higginson was an easy target. The fact that he was plagued by injuries did nothing to alleviate the criticism. He drew even more ire from the fans when he asked for a trade – but was unwilling to renegotiate his contract to facilitate a move.

The result is that today is the day many fans had circled on their calendars as a day of rejoicing because Higginson’s salary would come off the payroll. Since signing the contract, Higginson has hit 258/345/402 and 53 homers in 513 games.

Higginson’s career is most likely over. He has stated that he’d like to play for a contender, but I’m not sure what contender would want to pick up somebody with Higginson’s production who didn’t really play this season.

So it’s time to close the books on Higginson in Detroit. His career numbers as a Tiger: 272/358/455, 187 homers, 709 RBI, and 123 outfield assists. Higginson brought some of the ire on himself, but his biggest fault was being unable to live up to his contract. While he deserved criticism, he endured way more than he should have had to. It’s just a shame that he will be remembered more for his contract than he will for his contributions to the Tigers.

Good luck Bobby.

Quick hits

Just a couple of quick notes on the eve of the Tigers last home game…

  • The Tigers should have topped the 2 million mark in attendance tonight. That would mark the first time since 2000 when Comerica Park opened. It will be interesting to see what the season ticket renewal rate is without the All Star incentive. What was most encouraging is that the Tigers drew quite well during July and August – regularly topping 30,000.
  • The Tigers announced today that they have extended agreements with Erie and West Michigan. Erie will continue to be the Tigers AA club through 2008, and the Whitecaps will be the low A affiliate through 2010.

    Earlier this summer the team announced that Oneonta of the NY Penn league would continue to be the Rookie ball affiliate through 2010 as well.

  • I’ll be heading down to the final game tomorrow with the family. I’m looking forward to it, and hopefully the Tigers can close out the home season with a win.

Is Trammell too nice?

With speculation rampant that Trammell will be fired after the season, and no player openly backing him, Inge stepped forth and did.

‘I’m all for him,’ Inge said. ‘If you had asked me at the beginning of the season, I’d say he had to be harsher. But now I’m seeing it. I’m seeing him develop. He’s getting harder on people.’

And did he need to get harder?

‘Absolutely,’ Inge said. ‘I’m not backing him now for no reason. I wouldn’t do it if I didn’t believe it. But the way things have been handled toward the end of the season, he’s done a great job. I think he can be a great manager. Actually, I know he can be.

‘I’d be sorry (to see him go). His progress from the second half on has been tremendous.’

Where, specifically?

‘In putting his foot down, in his clubhouse managing, getting respect,’ Inge said. ‘Bottom line, I hope he’s with us. I really do.’

This was in Tom Gage’s game report from last night. It is nice to see someone in the clubhouse go on the record about Alan Trammell. But Inge’s comments got me thinking about Tram’s demeanor. One of the reasons people were skeptical about Trammell as manager as that he was too nice. Trammell couldn’t be a hard-ass, and guys might not listen to him. Inge’s comments seem to support that notion, but is it because Tram didn’t have the capacity to be harsh or was he not being harsh because he expected more from his players?

Think back to Alan Trammell the player. Do you think at any point in his career Sparky had to sit him down and tell him how to act? How to be a professional? Can you ever recall anybody questioning his effort, intensity, or preparation? Alan Trammell was the consumate baseball player because that’s who he was. Maybe one of the problems is that he expected his players to behave the same way. Or, he expected that he could be the quiet leader like he was as a player where guys would follow his lead. Unfortunately, while he was still putting on the uniform, he wasn’t able to step between the white lines and show them how to play.

Now during his playing days there had to have been some malcontents on those Tiger teams. By and large I would guess one of two things would happen to those players. One, they would be shipped out if possible. Trammell tried that approach this year. Alex Sanchez was cut. Omar Infante was benched. Carlos Pena was demoted.

In the cases where a player couldn’t be moved in the old days there were some other strong personalities (Gibson, Morris, Parrish) who simply wouldn’t tolerate it. There were enough leaders of like mind who grew up together that other players were forced to comply. Who are those guys on this Tiger team? Perhaps Trammell wasn’t harsher hoping that the players would police each other.

Now this is all conjecture on my part because I have no idea what happens in the clubhouse. This is just my take based on the various published reports.

I’m not trying to absolve Trammell. Afterall, it’s his job to lead this team and if he gave the players too much credit early on that proved to be a mistake on his part. But I’m not going to fault Trammell for being too nice. The fault as I see it is that he misread the personalities and situation in the clubhouse. Trammell couldn’t lead by example as manager the way he could as a player, and the group of strong personalities weren’t as cohesive as his days as a player.

Next Year…literally

The Tigers released their schedule for 2006. They open the season with in Kansas City on April 3rd. After the 3 game set they travel to Texas for four games before the home opener agains the White Sox on April 10th. April sees the Tigers play 13 games against the AL West including a 9 game road trip to the coast.

The most interesting homestand will bridge Memorial day weekend when the Tigers host the Indians for 3 games. Then Yankees (4 games) and Red Sox (3 games) make their only trips to Detroit.

The second half of June is all interleague play. The Tigers take on the NL Central this year. They host Cincinnati (in May), Houston, and St. Louis. They face Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and the Cubs on the road.

And you may have noticed that the Tigers natural rivals – the Arizona Diamondbacks – are not listed as interleague opponents. I don’t know if MLB has modified or the dropped the rivalry aspect or not. In any case, I’ve never been so happy to not play a bad team.

Here is the full schedule.

Days, Dollars, and the DL

In the first of what will be a depressingly long series titled “What went wrong 2005” we’ll take a look at the injuries the Tigers have sustained.

While the Tigers have a higher payroll then most of their AL Central counterparts, their record is better only than the Royals. However, this season is a prime example of A)Why expectations shouldn’t be set by looking at dollars spent, and B)The value of young cheap players.

Below is a table showing the days and dollars that the Tigers have lost to the disabled list this year.

Now the Tigers payroll has been reported to be between $69-$75 million this year (depending on when you look and such). In any more than a quarter of the Tigers payroll has been to players who haven’t been contributing.

Now in all fairness, there was very little expected out of Bobby Higginson, Colby Lewis, Gary Knotts, and Fernando Vina this season. As a matter of fact, if not for the 60 day DL, the Tigers probably wouldn’t have been paying for Knotts or Lewis. In the case of Higginson and Vina, the players probably would have both been released but in each case it was cheaper to retain the players and let the insurance kick in.

On the other hand, the two free agent signings who were expected to help improve the team, Magglio Ordonez and Troy Percival, have combined to miss an entire season. (Maggs salary came from ESPN.com, I don’t think that’s the correct number, but it’s what I had). Also, the Tigers received diminished production from the shortstop position with Carlos Guillen ailing.

Now am I making excuses? Sure I am. The Tigers injuries did have a negative impact on the team. And these are just the guys on the DL. Dmitri Young’s various ailments have sidelined him at various times. Then there is Carlos Pena, who was making $2.575 million but spent 2 1/2 months in Toledo.

But the lesson here is that aging free agents can be a risky proposition. Ordonez isn’t ancient, but the days of expecting him to play everyday are probably gone. Carlos Guillen and Rondell White have had a history of being injury prone. Troy Percival and Bobby Higginson were both pretty close to the end of their careers coming into this year.

Injuries happen to every team, and more expensive injuries happen as well. The Tigers need more talent, and they’ve found some in the minors. But they are still more than one or two players away from being a playoff team, so they will probably need to add additional talent through free agency this year. Once again unfortunately the Tigers will probably be in a position where they have to overpay for free agents that other teams are hesitant to sign. And once again they will probably be susceptible to injury.