2nd inning, 0 outs, Runners on 1st and 2nd
Marcus Thames strikes out looking

2nd inning, 1 out, Runners on 1st and 3rd
Vance Wilson strikes out looking

3rd inning, 0 outs, Runners on 1st and 3rd
Brandon Inge strikes out swinging

3rd inning, 2 outs, Runners on 1st and 2nd
Marcus Thames strikes out swinging

Two early inning prime scoring chances in which the Tigers only managed 2 runs largely because hitters failed to put the ball in play.

The Tigers offensive woes continued this weekend as they managed to score a whopping 9 runs in 3 games, in the league’s most hitter friendly environment, against a team that just isn’t good. While the Tigers have lots of problems offensively, their biggest problem might be their propensity for striking out. More specifically, the problem is their propensity for striking out given that they don’t walk much nor do they hit for power.

The Tigers are striking out every 5.69 plate appearances, which is more frequently than any other team in the American League. Now that in itself isn’t necessarily bad. Texas strikes out the next most at 5.8 PA’s/K and yet they lead the league in run scoring. The difference is that Texas is a power hitting team, and the strikeouts are a byproduct of that power hitting. Texas leads the league in homers per game, and is second in the AL in team slugging percentage.

Detroit on the other hand is 10th in homers per game and 8th in team slugging percentage. Now the power game isn’t the only way to score runs, but it is an effective way. Because the Tigers aren’t a power hitting team, they rely on stringing hits together. Stringing hits together and advancing runners is tough when you fail to put the ball in play.

Placido Polanco should help to fix the situation as he is a contact hitter who only strikes out once every 46 at-bats 13.8 plate appearances (EDIT: I goofed, sorry). Unfortunately, he only gets to bat once every 9 times. The following table has the team’s PA/K:

NAME             PA/K
Marcus Thames     2.9
Carlos Pena       3.7
M. Ordonez        3.7
T. Giarratano     4.1
Jason Smith       4.4
Brandon Inge      5.0
Chris Shelton     5.3
B. Higginson      5.4
Dmitri Young      5.4
I. Rodriguez      5.6
Vance Wilson      6.0
Omar Infante      6.1
Craig Monroe      6.7
Nook Logan        6.8
C. Guillen        7.2
Rondell White     9.6
P. Polanco       14.0
R. Martinez      15.5

Marcus Thames is probably the most offensive rate on the team, and he furthered that number by striking out 4 times in 4 plate appearances today.

Until the Tigers can start putting the ball in play, or hitting a ton of home runs, or at least start walking a lot, the Tigers are going to have a hard time scoring runs. As was demonstrated this weekend when the Tigers struck out 23 times, it doesn’t matter how great of a hitter’s park you’re in when you swing and miss.

Other Stuff

• In case you don’t read the Detroit News, each Sunday Lynn Henning has been running a series called Baseball 101. Earlier editions have focused mostly on the intricacies of MLB contracts (options, free agency, arbitration, etc.). Today was the first stat focused one with an introduction of OPS. It was a well written primer and I’m happy to see the mainstream media embracing some of these “new-fangled” stats and educating the broader public.
• Saturday Ivan Rodriguez earned his first unintentional walk since May 6th. True, he swung and fouled off 3 other pitches that would have been ball four, but he made it to first.
• Justin Verlander had another specatcular outing yesterday. He picked up his 8th win and pitched 7 innings allowing only six hits and one walk while striking out 10. Let’ hope he can avoid the fate that befell 2003’s first rounder Kyle Sleeth who underwent Tommy John surgery last week.

So the Urbina-Polanco trade took a very interesting twist today with Danny Knobler’s report that Urbina was part of an alcohol fueled altercation on the team’s flight to LA on Sunday night. Knobler isn’t saying which player Urbina was fighting with, just that it wasn’t just one player. Jayson Stark further reports

Knobler points out that this deal, or one similar to it, would probably have gone down without the incident. The altercation just expedited the process.

What’s interesting is this is the first clubhouse incident that we’ve heard about during Alan Trammell’s tenure. Now it’s possible other things have occured and they’ve just been kept quiet. Even if that’s true, it is a credit to Trammell and his coaches that the team kept it in the family and it didn’t become a public issue. As for the information coming out in this case, it was done intentionally. If this was a leak or somebody having a grudge it would have been reported on Monday or Tuesday. Instead, it was kept underwraps until after the trade was completed.

Other thoughts on the trade and some responses to concerns:

• Some are concerned that Troy Percival, while once a great closer, doesn’t have what it takes to finish games anymore. While this may be true, the Tigers certainly don’t think this is the case. If they had doubts about Percival, they wouldn’t have signed him in the first place. Given that they have faith in him, and Franklyn German, Chris Spurling, and Kyle Farnsworth have all pitched well, Urbina became very expendable.
• The open roster spot will go to Fernando Rodney who came off the disabled list today. The Tigers roster is now back at 25, and they only have 4 starters. While they are over a week from needing a fifth starter, I’m curious to see who gets sent down. Will it be Doug Creek, Chris Spurling, Tony Giarratano, Omar Infante?
• Speaking of Infante, his status is still uncertain. I don’t think the Tigers are giving up on him (he’s only 22 years old), but a utility/sporadic bench role isn’t going to help him at all.
• One of the benefits of holding on to Urbina is that they could offer arbitration, and with Urbina wanting to close they would be assured of him turning it down. While the same scenario could play out with Polanco, keep in mind he was only available because the surprised the Phillies last year by accepting arbitration even though the plan was for Chase Utley to start.
• Check out Balls Sticks and Stuff to see what Philly bloggers are saying about the deal. Or at least what they were saying before the information about the fight came out. And before Urbina gave up two hits (one a homer), and two walks in a third of an inning.

Let’s start with the facts and move on to the analysis. The Tigers have sent closer Ugueth Urbina, their most tradeable commodity, along with Ramon Martinez for Phillies infielder Placido Polanco, the Phillies most tradeable commodity.

The Tigers have definitely improved their second base position which has been an offensive blackhole this year. Tigers second basemen have hit 231/271/347, with Omar Infante providing most of the plate apperances. Polanco is a career 295/339/410 hitter and excellent defender.

The Tigers traded from a position of stregth, their bullpen, to strengthen an area of weakness. The tenous thing is that the closer duties now fall squarely on Troy Percival’s shoulders, which support an arm that recently caused him to go on the disabled list. Tigers bullpen depth with Franklyn German, Jamie Walker, and Kyle Farnsworth will still be a plus.

The biggest question is whether or not this is the right direction for the Tigers. They are 11 games out of first place, and Urbina could have delivered a couple of top prospects (or draft picks if offered arbitration). Latroy Hawkins, a lesser closer netted the Cubs Jerome Williams and Dave Aardsma last month. That the Tigers are making a move to compete now means either 1. they are delusional, or 2. there is yet another move coming to help them compete now. By all accounts, Magglio Ordonez won’t be ready for another month, which won’t make Rondell White expendable for quite some time, so I’m not sure what else is coming.

In terms of contracts, the Tigers it will pretty much be a wash. Ubrina and Martinez were slated to make $5 million and Polanco is being paid $4.6 million (plus the Tigers will be paying someone else to take Martinez’s spot). All 3 players will be free agents after this season.

Other questions this trade raises that I don’t know the answer to:

• The Tigers only have 24 men on the big league roster, and they’re in National League parks this week, and Carlos Guillen is day-to-day. They could use everybody they can so who is the other player to join the team?
• Is Carlos Guillen only day-to-day or is he facing extended DL time? Was this part of the motivation for the trade?
• What happens to Omar Infante? Being a backup won’t help in his development, and I don’t imagine the Tigers are willing to give up on him. Will he move to shortstop, or will Tony Giarratano continue to back up Guillen?

There are too many questions still unanswered to know if I like this deal or not. I think the value is fair, I’m just not sure if I agree with the philosophy.

Just a short post today as I peruse various stats:

• Last night’s 8-4 win over the Dodgers was the first game the Tigers have won by more than two runs since May 8th.
• With Pudge’s 4 for 5 night he appears to be returning to the Pudge of old – with one exception – he’s still not walking. His last walk came on May 17th, and that was intentional. His last non-intentional walk was May 6th.
• Nate Robertson once again walked more hitters than he struck-out. He now has 32 walks against 30 strikeouts. Using the Day by Day Database one can see Nate is one of only 9 pitchers in the majors to pitch at least 50 innings this year and offer more free passes than K’s. That is part of what makes his 3.48 ERA so surprising. The overall ERA among these 9 pitchers is 5.10. Surprisingly, Nate’s ERA isn’t even the best among the group. Tomo Ohka’s 3.33 is tops among the group.
• So who is has struckout more than any other Tiger this year? Suprisingly Brandon Inge with 51. Carlos Pena is second with 41 and Dmitri Young is 3rd at 40.
• Of course Inge also leads the team in walks with 30, and is once again followed by Pena with 21 and then Craig Monroe at 20.
• Speaking of Craig Monroe’s walks, he walked once every 16.7 plate apperances his first two seasons. This year he’s walking once every 10.6. He’s also striking out less with a K every 7.6 PA’s this year against once every 5.6 his first two years.
• There has been discussion that the Tigers aren’t doing a good job of driving runners home. This is only partially true. The Tigers are actually pretty average with runners on base. They are hitting 290/347/434 with runners on base, and the resulting OPS ranks them tied for 7th in the AL. Essentially they are average. The problem is that the Tigers haven’t had enough at-bats with runners on base in the first place. In terms of at-bats with runners on, the Tigers rank 11th in the AL.
• This means nothing, but the Tigers are 13th out of 14 teams in being hit by a pitch.
• However if you combine that with the fact the Tigers are 12th in walks, and 13th in non-intentional walks and it’s pretty clear that if the Tigers aren’t hitting, they aren’t getting on base.

I’ll be updating this post throughout the day as the Tigers make their picks…

1st Round (10th pick): Cameron Maybin 6-3, 200lbs T C Roberson HS North Carolina

The Tigers selected high school outfielder Cameron Maybin with their first pick in the 2005 draft. Baseball America had him rated the 2nd best high school prospect behind number 1 pick Justin Upton. Maybin is a toolsy player with a high ceiling. Here’s some additional informaion:

Baseball America says:

Still feeling bad about that loss on Sunday? Was it compounded by last night’s loss to the Dodgers. Read this for therapy in a blog. Oh, yeah – it ryhmes. Brilliant!

Once again the Tigers capped off what could have been an impressive homestand with a loss. If it feels like a recurring theme, well it is. The Tigers have had 5 homestands this year, and have lost on get-away day 4 of the 5 times. Mike Maroth picked up the loss yesterday, despite keeping Baltimore off balance. The Orioles used a combination of tweeners, dribblers and defensive miscues to scratch out a 6-2 victory. Most disturbing is that this marked yet another game in which the Tigers defense played poorly.

Throughout the first quarter of the season, the Tigers ranked in the top 3 in the American League in defensive efficiency. They were hovering a little over the .7110 mark against a league average of .6974. However, they have now slipped to 6th in the AL at .7020. This is due to a 12 game stretch, starting with the New York series, where there defensive efficiency has been an abyssmal .6544. While these numbers all seem pretty close, the impacts can be significant. In the case of this 12 game stretch, Tiger pitchers allowed 353 balls in play. If they had been average defensively, that would have been 15 fewer baserunners.

During this time period, the Tigers also have committed 16 errors – and 9 have come in the last 4 games.

What’s causing this defensive collapse? Part of it probably has to do with Carlos Guillen being unable to play shortstop on a regular basis. Tony Giarratano had a couple rough games as Guillen’s replacement, and Ramon Martinez has struggled as well. Even with Guillen playing yesterday, his range and ability to plant and throw is probably being hindered by his knee. I think the Tigers have also already started to experience the downside of life without Carlos Pena at first base. There have been a number of throwing errors that may have been negated by Pena’s foot work around the base. Fortunately, with the exception of a couple of plays, the outfield defense has been quite good.

Another explanation may be that the Tigers defense was playing over their heads for the first quarter of the season. What we may be seeing is a regression back to their true playing level. The Tigers were 3rd worst in defensive efficiency last year, and by and large brought back the same club. While Nook Logan is definitely an upgrade in centerfield, and Brandon Inge has more range than Munson at 3rd, the Tigers have mostly incumbents playing the positions.

In any case the Tigers continued their love-hate relationship with .500. They love getting there, but they hate getting past it.

Dodger Time
Now this is one of the cool things about interleague play. The Tigers head out west to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. It will be the first time the Tigers have ever played in Dodger Stadium, so naturally the game isn’t televised in Detroit. As Tiger fans, we don’t get alot of exposure to the Dodgers on a regular basis. The first thing I’d recommend you do is listen to this. It is Vin Scully calling the 9th inning of Sandy Koufax’s perfect game. If that gives you chills – as it should – go out and get Jane Leavy’s biography of Sandy Koufax. In the meantime, check out Dodger Thoughts where there is a break down of what the Dodgers have done the first third of the season.

Oh Say Can You Sing
Good Sports Recordings has made a CD featuring 10 current major leaguers and Ozzie Smith performing various songs. Included on the CD is the Tigers’ own Matt Ginter playing banjo on Dooley. Now I’m not an afficionado on banjo music, but it sounded pretty good. Also included on the disk are some decent performances by Jeff Conine (STP – Plush), and Aubrey Huff (John Michael Montgomery – Letters from home). The CD also comes with a behind the scenes DVD, and a portion of the proceeds benefit various charities. If you’re a fan of one of the players on the disc, it could be a cool collectible. For the complete list of who and what are one the CD, or to purchase one, click here.

You had to see this one coming. On a night where the Tigers offense puts up 7 runs in the first 3 innings, and your starting pitcher can’t protect the lead even through the 5th inning…

This isn’t the end of Wil Ledezma as a starter, but the Tigers don’t have the luxury of letting guys develop and figure stuff out at the major league level any more. This team has a chance to be competitive, and Ledezma wasn’t allowing them to do that.

With off days, the Tigers can get through the next week without a 5th starter. Plus, it will give Trammell a little more flexibility as the Tigers head into National League parks.

After the LA-Colorado swing, my guess is that Sean Douglass will be called up to be the 5th starter.

As for who the closer is, your guess is as good as mine. Percival has said he’ll do whatever the team needs him to do. With the way Urbina is pitching, I’d hope that Trammell would stay with the hot hand.

Game Thoughts
I tend to not blast Trammell, but last night wasn’t one of his finer games. In a week in which the Tigers have come from behind numerous times, it appeared that Trammell was willing to concede that 2 runs was too much to come back from. There is no way that Doug Creek should have been left in with the bases loaded.

Also, Tony Giarratano has to be partially responsible for the loss. On three different occasions, runs scored on balls off of his glove. A couple of them were tougher plays, but he’s got to make some of those plays.

Gammons on Inge
Thanks to Jeff who posted this in the comments to the last post, but Gammons has a piece on Brandon Inge that is worth a read.

The Hardball Times updated their Win Shares stats through May 31st, and I’ve updated and enhanced the treemap. Below is the map for the entire AL Central. The lightest color is offensive win shares, the darkest color is fielding win shares, and the in-between color is pitching. To see a larger image just click on the picture. The bigger the box, the more win shares. If you want more explanation for this chart, read this. And if you want to see the inspiration for the chart, click here.

Some things that jump out at me:

• Just how little Kansas City’s pitching has accomplished. Kansas City doesn’t have many wins to begin with, but what they have has been coming from the offense.
• Across the rest of the division pitching and defense appears to dominate with shaded squares out sizing white squares.
• The White Sox offseason acquisitions of Podsednik, Iguchi, and Pierzynski have accumlated a significant portion of the Sox offensive win shares.
• The Tigers and Indians went into the season looking for significant offense from their catchers – it hasn’t happened. Rodriguez has done ok from a win shares perspective, but it’s been mostly defensive. As for Martinez, there’s a reason you can’t find him on the map

As the Tigers battled for their 3rd come from behind victory in the last 4 games, I couldn’t help but think about how much lamenting there was about the Tigers lack of clutch hitting over the last few weeks. Also, as they pulled out another one run win and they moved to 16-15 in games decided by two runs or less, I couldn’t help but think way back to last month when the Tigers couldn’t win close games because Trammell was an idiot. As Ugueth Urbina pitched a scoreless tenth inning to earn the win and extend a stretch in which he’s allowed 2 runs in his last 18 apperances, I had a flashback to the second week of the season when people determined that Urbina: needed to be benched/should have been traded/doesn’t care.

The point is that baseball has a long season where things will go well for a stretch, and things will go bad for a stretch. Now I’m not trying to diminish excitement about the Tiger’s recent stretch where they have won 5 of 6, and they’ve done it in dramatic fashion. Heck, I was walking around with a grin the rest of the day after they came back and won that game and even yet out a yelp in my office as I listened. But while the Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 games, they are also 5-5 in their last ten.

So enjoy the current performance and get excited about the Tigers because this is the best baseball team to take the field in Detroit in a long time. At the same time remember that just because one night the Tigers don’t mount a comeback it isn’t because they aren’t clutch hitters. And if one night Urbina blows a save it isn’t because he sucks. And, at some point in the near future the Tigers will manage to blow somebody out again.

I know my readers are smarter than the typical fan and I’m not telling you anything new, but after all the sports talk and message board overreacting I’ve heard/read this year, I felt I needed to get that off my chest.

Finally. While Opening Day was a spectacular way to start the season, what with the temperature in the 70’s and the demolition of Kansas City, my luck since then hasn’t been so hot. First there was the game that was snowed out against the Twins. Then a couple of one-run losses to the Red Sox, then a Friday night game against the Angels that was thunderstormed out and featured this ominous warning “All fans located in the upper decks are instructed to seek shelter in the lower deck.” Then last night, it all came together. I had great seats, they were about 25 rows up from the Rangers dugout between home and first, the weather was beautiful, Jeremy Bonderman was on the mound, and a kid from AA was making his major league debut for the Tigers.

As for the game itself, both pitchers started off strong. They were both consistently in the strike zone, and it hardly seemed that either pitcher went to a 3-2 count (the game ended without any walks for either team). After Kevin Mench and Hank Blalock gave Texas a 3-0 lead in the 4th inning, Dmitri Young answered with a shot that can only be described as majestic. It was a 447 foot blast to right center, that for a time looked like it had a chance to actually clear the bleachers and reach the concourse.

The fifth inning starts off with a Richard Hidalgo home run, but that was just to set up an awesome strike out by Michael Young. Well, maybe that doesn’t make a lot of sense, but let me explain. With Michael Young up to bat, he hit a foul pop up. This foul pop up carries well over our heads and hits the facing of the third deck. I tip my head back to take a look and I pick up the ball. I’m watching it and realize that the ball is coming right back. You know how athlete’s talk about being in “the zone” and how when everything is going well things seem to slow down? Well, I think I was in the foul ball “zone.” The crowd seemed to get really quiet, and as the ball slowly dropped towards me, I could even see the backspin on it. After what seemed like a long time – and was actually probably about 2 seconds – I reached up without even leaving my seat and felt the ball cradle into my hands. My first foul ball. I received a nice little localized acknowledgement from the folks sitting around us, and then I think some stuff happenned in the game but I’m not really sure because I was busy holding my new prize.

The Tigers then began a comeback where everybody participated, even “the kids” (Shelton, Giarratano, Nook). They knocked Ryan Drese out of the game and Brandon Inge drove in the go ahead runs against a drawn in infield. Most impressive was the bullpen where Kyle Farnsworth and Ugueth Urbina came in and struckout all 5 batters they faced.

In the end a great night, great seats, a Tiger come from behind win, an impressive debut, and my first foul ball. What more could a guy ask for?

The Tigers have called up Tony Giarratano from AA Erie. Tony G turned heads during spring training by going 14 for 42 in 19 games. He got an extended look due to Carlos Guillen’s light spring work schedule. Giarratano hasn’t really been lighting up the Eastern League hitting 253/330/388 with 9 errors. He has walked 21 times, but also struck out 43 times in 170 at-bats.

John Sickels has Giarratano rated as the 3rd best prospect in the Tigers system and gave him a “B” grade. He also had this to say a couple weeks ago:

Giarratano is a decent prospect who doesn’t appear to be ready. I can’t imagine the Tigers calling him up to be a back-up. First, at this stage in his development he needs regualr at-bats. Second, they are starting his service clock which means he’ll be reaching arbitration eligibility that much sooner. If he’s not going to be a back-up, that means they expect Guillen to not be playing shortstop much in the near term.

Jason Smith will be designated for assignment to make room for Giarratano.