Prospects
Baseball America published their list of the top 10 Tigers prospects. Curtis Granderson tops this year list.

1. Curtis Granderson, of
2. Kyle Sleeth, rhp
3. Justin Verlander, rhp
4. Joel Zumaya, rhp
5. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
6. Tony Giarratano, ss
7. Jeff Frazier, of
8. Ryan Raburn, 2b
9. Eric Beattie, rhp
10. Eulogio de la Cruz, rhp

Notice that 3 members of the top 10 were drafted last year, and had little (Jeff Frazier 79 AB’s before breaking his hand) or no experience (Verlander, Beattie) at the professional level. Unfortunately this speaks more to the quality of the farm system then the quality of the 2004 draft.

The most notable omission from the list is Chris Shelton. In Pat Caputo’s chat, he cited Shelton’s lack of athleticism and the fact Shelton doesn’t sting the ball as why he didn’t make the top 10. Chris Kline’s review of the top 20 AFL prospects corroborates Caputo’s findings, as Shelton didn’t make the top 20. This despite Shelton out performing everyone on the list in the AFL

With Shelton we get to see the split between performance versus tools analysis of players. Tools wise he grades out pretty average. He’s poor defensively, has a poor arm, is slow, and doesn’t hit for power. However, he does hit, and his performance in the AFL showed that. Now maybe I don’t remember clearly, but Wade Boggs didn’t really sting the ball, or play great defense (27 errors his first full season at 3B, and 20 the next year). However, he managed to put together a pretty nice career .415 OBA. I have no idea how scouts graded Boggs, and I’m working from my memory of his playing days. Maybe scouts loved him, and he was a stud defensively who hit line shots all around the field, but I don’t remember him that way.

Am I saying that Shelton will be the second coming of Wade Boggs? Of course not. I’m just not ready to dismiss him because of how he grades out. I would definitely prefer if he could play some position, but what is wrong with a team developing a designated hitter? Why should the position always seem to go to an aging player with bad knees. If a young guy can hit, then let him hit.

Other Stuff
While a ton of baseball blogs have come and gone in the last couple years, Twins Geek is still going strong. John Bonnes’ site has been around longer than this one, and it’s one of the blogs that I try to emulate here. Well, at the beginning of the season, John got a deal to blog about the Twins for the Star Tribune. John’s final post for the Star-Trib ran last week. In his piece, Bonnes talks about some of the conflict between bloggers and journalists

and why it doesn’t have to be that way…

Between what John has already said, and Aaron Gleeman weighing in on the issue there isn’t really more for me to add. I just wanted to give a shout out to Twinsgeek as it returns to its old home.

There’s a lot to touch on after this weekend, so let’s get right to it…

Jayson Stark’s Grumblings
Jayson Stark’s recent column had quite a bit on the Tigers. According to Jayson’s sources, the Tigers were the only team offering multiple years to Percival.

However, he also has a source from an AL front office that thinks the Tigers are just a couple players away from being contenders.

Stark also quotes Steve Finley’s agent as saying the Tigers have been “Extremely Aggressive” in pursuing Finley.

The 40 Man Roster
The Tigers also finalized their 40 man roster on Friday. The moves included activating Fernando Rodney, Chris Spurling, and Fernando Vina from the 60 day DL. They also added Mark Woodyard from Erie.

Woodyard will be 26 next season, and his highest level to date is AA ball. In a variety of pitching roles with Erie last season the righthander compiled a 6-4 record and 3.42 ERA. His K/9 of 4.84 isn’t particularly impressive, nor was his 3.25 BB/9. His most impressive stat would be the 5 homers in 102IP.

To make room for these additions, Nate Cornejo was activated and outrighted to Toledo. Matt Roney, Don Kelly, and Felix Sanchez were also outrighted to Toledo.

I was surprised to see Roney left unprotected. He’s a year younger than Woodyard, had a better K rate (6.01) last year, and has pitched at the major league level. Now Roney did allow 20 homers for Erie last year, and he didn’t really dominate when he was with the Tigers. However, he seemed like he could potentially provide some bullpen depth.

Felix Sanchez you may remember is the player the Tigers acquired in the Jon Connolly trade last year. Sanchez had 14 unremarkable apperances for Erie last year. Connolly went 9-5 with a 2.40 ERA in High A ball. He also improved his K rate (6.94 from 5.64 the previous season) and his BB rate (1.56 from 2.06 the previous season).

Arizona Hardware
A couple of Tigers fared extremely well inthe Arizona Fall League. Chris Shelton captured MVP honors while leading the league in BA, OBP, SLG, H, and RBI. He was also named to the all prospect team as a catcher, first baseman, and utility player. Curtis Granderson also received all prospect team honors as a centerfielder.

With Redbird Nation and Bambino’s Curse closing up shop in the last few weeks, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thougts takes a look at The Disposable Baseball Blogger. If you’re interested in the state of baseball blogging, it is an excellent read.

I know that over the last few months I’ve been contemplating the future of DTW. I felt bad that I neglected the blog for the last month of the season, and didn’t even weigh in on any of the postseason. A lack of time, and a lack of things to say are what kept me away from the keyboard. Posts about my lack of posting out numbered posts containing analysis or thoughts.

I thought about taking on additional writers to get more consistent and fresher material. In the end though, I wanted the voice of DTW to be mine, and mine only (whatever that means). I decided not to close up shop, because I don’t want to quit before I get the chance to blog during a pennant race. I’ve spent so long writing about bad teams, that I want the chance to cover a good team. Hopefully I’ll get that chance next year.

In the meantime, I’ve got a whole off sesaon to kill. Ideally, we’ll have quite a few Tiger signings or trades to talk about. In case we don’t though, I’m taking requests. If there are any Tiger topics you’d like me to address, let me know. If there is any analysis that you’d like to see done, let me know. I can’t guarantee that I’ll be able to do it, but I’ll give it a shot.

In the next week or two Baseball America will be coming out with their list of the top 10 Tiger prospects. By the sounds of things, Pat Caputo had a hard time coming up with ten. BA recently published the top 20 prospects in each minor league. For the Tigers, they have teams in the Gulf Coast League (Lakeland), NY-Penn league (Oneonta), the Midwest League (West Michigan), the Florida State League (Lakeland), the Eastern League (Erie), and the International League (Toledo). That’s six leagues, which means six lists, which means there are 120 players on those six lists. Unfortunately only 3 of those 120 players are in the Tigers organization.

The Tigers A Lakeland team was represented on the FSL list by Tony Giarrtano (9) and Kyle Sleeth (20). Erie’s lone representative was Curtis Granderson who was seventh on the Eastern League list. In all fairness Wil Ledezma was well on his way to making this list but he did so well he got the call in July. Also, Chris Shelton who was stuck on the roster as a Rule 5 pick also looks like a legitimate prospect as he is destroying the Arizona Fall Leauge (.407/.472/.725)

Even if you include Ledezma and Shelton things look pretty bleak. Members of last year’s top 10 struggled in 2004. Brent Clevlen and Scott Moore weren’t able to adjust to High A ball. Cody Kirkland who showed promise at Oneonta never got it going for West Michigan. Rob Henkel’s career could be over after suffering a torn labrum. Jay Sborz actually pitched worse in his second tour of rookie ball for the GCL Tigers.

Kyle Sleeth did progress up to Erie where he battled with injury and AA hitters. Joel Zumaya also showed progress. Kenny Baugh made it through a whole season which is a huge step forward for him.

However, the void of talent in the minor leagues is what led to the demotion of Greg Smith from scouting director. It will also cause the Tigers to spend more for free agent position players than they’d probably like to, because they’ve had such a hard time developing their own.

Free agent season is officially underway, and the top 3 names that have been talked about with regard to Detroit are Corey Koskie, Carl Pavano, and Derek Lowe.

Corey Koskie
The Tigers are rumored to have been in touch with Koskie who made $4.5 million last year. Koskie is a solid player who was hampered by injuries last year. Defensively he would be an upgrade over the Munson/Inge platoon of last year. Offensively, he would probably be a slight upgrade. He has a better eye and more power than Inge. Plus he has a track record of being a decent hitter as opposed to Inge to has one good season. Koskie’s runs created/27 was 5.56 last year as opposed to Inge’s 5.78. While Koskie is a solid player with a decent track record, I don’t think the upgrade would be worth the cost considering Koskie would cost about $4 million more than Inge.

Carl Pavano
I’m not sure how interested Pavano is in coming to Detroit, but at least his agent is interested in creating that perception. Pavano had his first big season last year at the age of 28. He had a 3.00 ERA and a 137 ERA+. He had 5.62 K/9 last year, which is right in line with his career numbers (5.64). His biggest boost came from a drop in HR’s allowed (.65/9 IP sea., .91/9 IP car.) and walks allowed (1.98 /9 IP sea., 2.60/ 9IP car.). Pavano would definitely upgrade the staff and be a legitimate top of the rotation guy. Assuming the Tigers could land him, is it worth the cost?

Pat Caputo’s column today argues against chasing free agent pitching and he makes some compelling arguments. First is that Bonderman may be ready to become the staff ace. If he can build upon how he finished last season that would be hard to argue. Second, the Tigers farm system consists of an outfielder, a shortstop, and a handful of high ceiling pitchers. The Tigers have no organizational depth of position players so free agent dollars should be spent on bats.

If someone were to get bumped from the rotation, if it were up to me it would be Jason Johnson. He had some nice apperances, and a strong June but by an large was a disappointment. I bring this up because then not only are you spending about $9-10 million to add Pavano to the rotation, you’re still paying Johnson $3.5 million to not be in the rotation.

I guess my thoughts on Pavano are that I’ll be happy if the Tigers get him, I just don’t want them to be hamstrung in the future by the cost of his contract.

Derek Lowe
Derek Lowe was a fine reliever, and had a great year his first season as a starter in 2002. However, the last two years have seen him slip. His WHIP has climbed from .974 in 2002 to 1.417 in 2003, to 1.614 last year. In 2002 his HR/9 IP was .49, last year it was .74 (a 50% increase). I know Lowe is from Dearborn. I know he pitched great in the postseason. However, I don’t see him helping the Tigers.

In conclusion, I like Koskie, but not at the price it will take to get him. I like Pavano, but I’m a little leery of the future repercussions of a large and long contract especially since pitching is an area of relative strength for the Tigers. As for Lowe, I don’t like him at any price.

The Tigers signed Jamie Walker for $900,000. Walker is a solid left handed reliever, and the Tigers would be hard pressed to find a free agent that could offer the same production at a better price. Walker struggled at the end of the season, but the entire bullpen seemed to collapse was roles changed with the loss of Urbina.

The Tigers also decided not to pick up Al Levine’s $1.1 million option. While Levine redeemed himself by pitching better in August and September, he was brutal before the All Star break. The fact of the matter is, Levine hasn’t had good peripherals. He isn’t overpowering enough to keep guys off balance, and he can’t strike guys out. Given the Tigers below average defense, the pitching staff has to keep the ball out of play and Levine couldn’t do that. If he can be resigned much cheaper (and especially to a minor league contract) he could provide some organizational depth. However, his option price was prohibitive.

The story on Craig Monroe throughout his career is that he’s a 4th outfielder that has some legitimate, albeit inconsistent power. Monroe will turn 28 during spring training in 2005 so we should be seeing the peak of his production. Fortunately, 2004 seemed to be a big step forward for Craig.

Craig finished the season hitting a very respectable .293/.337/.488. That amounted to a considerable improvement over his 2003 season .240/.287/.449. His OPS+ of 115 was solid and he saw playing time at all 3 outfield positions.

Monroe got significant playing time early in the season when Dmitri Young went down with his broken leg. He struggled early on, but then his average began to rise during May and by the end of June he was hitting .279. However, Monroe’s power had all but vanished. His slugging percentage was a pitiful .371 at the All Star break.

Unfortunately, Craig had a stint on the DL in late July. However when he returned, he returned in dramatic fashion. Before going on the DL, Monroe had 4 homers on the season. Upon returning on August 8th, he crushed 14 dingers over the last two months of the season. He slugged .764 and .547 in August and September respectively. He also managed to keep his batting average in the .290’s during those months.

Also noteworthy for Craig are his lefty/righty splits. In 2003 he destroyed left handed pitchers. In fact the disparity between the way he hit lefties and righties was way outside the normal bounds. Right handed hitters are expected to have an OPS 9% better against lefties than righties. In 2003 Monroe was 61% better against southpaws so the expectation was that he would probably hit righties a little better, and lefties a little worse in the future. This played out in strongly in 2004.

Last year Craig’s OPS against left handers was .722, but against right handers it was .881. The result is that instead of the expected ratio of 1.09, it was .82. After the dramatic correction last year, his career ratio is 1.12 which is much closer to what is expected. The really good news is that his 2003 numbers against lefthanders were more indicative of his talent than his 2003 numbers against right handers.

If Monroe can continue to improve in 2005 his bat should be good enough to keep him in the lineup. The Tigers outfield will be crowded next year, but Monroe has an advantage in that he can competently play all 3 positions. He doesn’t have the range of a typical centerfielder, but can make spot starts there. Rondell White will get the bulk of the playing time in left. That leaves right field as the primary position available for Monroe. He has the power to actually play a corner outfield position which is more than can be said for Bobby Higginson.

I believe that Monroe will be arbitration eligible, but he should still be able to be retained for well under $1 million (and if he’s not arb-elg, he could be a bargain at $330k). Given that Monroe is coming into his peak seasons, I don’t know that the Tigers can find a free agent bat that can match Monroe’s at a similar price. The fact that he was able to establish last year that he can hit right handed pitching was an encouraging sign. Monroe still strikes out a lot, tries to pull too many pitches, and doesn’t walk enough. However, short of the Tigers signing Carlos Beltran, Monroe should be part of the Tigers plans next season.

Since I last posted the Tigers season ended, the Red Sox won a World Series, and the Tigers withdrew their offers to No. 1 pick Justin Verlander only to sign him a week later. All this without commentary. So here’s where I catch up.

Thoughts on Justin Verlander. When news came that the Tigers broke off negotiations I actually viewed it as a positive. Not that they wasted a first round pick, but that they weren’t going to be stupid with money. There was definite frustration that Greg Smith missed on assessing Verlander’s signability, but Verlander’s (or his agents) demands were unreasonable and I applaud the Tigers for risking getting burned in the public to stand their ground. Since Verlander’s dad came back to open up negotiations, and things got resolved quickly, it looks like the Tigers did the right thing.

Thoughts on the season You know what, it’s just too late to recap the season. I will say that I was pleased with the improvement. However, I think that the team still underperformed. Their offense and starting pitching were good enough to get them another half dozen wins. The good news is that the fans actually paid attention. The trick is to keep them interested next year. Another sub .500 season won’t cut it, and the coaching staff will feel the brunt of the heat.

Future of the Blog While I have taken hiatuses (hiatii?) in the past, I take pride in the fact that I’ve managed to keep this thing going through some pretty bad seasons. So I’m sure not going to stop now.

Without day to day Tiger news, I figured I needed something to write about to keep the blog from going dormant during the winter. Probably once or twice a week, I’ll be writing up a piece on Tiger players who have some question marks surrounding them. Mostly these question marks arise because of contract issues (the arb eligible players), or they are a player most likely to be traded (Maroth, Sanchez, Inge…). I’ve decided Craig Monroe will be first up.

Of course I’ll be commenting on free agent signings and free agent misses, as well as any trades or other transactions.

So I’m sorry about the delay, but hopefully you’ll still check in once a week or so and see what I’ve been up to.

That was from my offensive preview this season. In the end, he only made it to 135 games, but his RC27 of 7.6 bettered my prediction by 50%. For the season he finished with 108 runs created. Suffice it to say that Carlos Guillen by far exceeded my expectations (let’s face it, he blew us all away).

Now comes the news that Guillen’s season is done, the result of a hustle play in a meaningless September game. He was playing the game the same in September has he played all season, all out. His effort however was just one example of Guillen’s consistency this season.

A look at his offensive numbers over the course of the season reveals that he only had one “bad” month (August). And by “bad” we are talking about .260/.312/.440. Now keep in mind, that the .752 OPS during Guillen’s worst month was still the 5th best among starting shortstops this season. (In other words, for the season, there are only 4 SS’s besides Guillen who are hitting better than .752).

Here are some more splits:
Home: .320/.375/.492
Away: .316/.384/.590

Pre All Star : .321/.391/.558
Post All Star: .307/.359/.516

vs LHP: .269/.315/.457
vs RHP: .348/.416/.594

Okay, so he hits right handers much better than left. But like I mentioned before, those numbers are still better than most of the shortstops out there.

Defensively, Guillen did have 17 errors and his fielding percentage was middle of the pack. His Zone Rating of .837 was 10th best among AL shortstops. However, that is a vast improvement over the .782 that Ramon Santiago had last year. He also seemed to share a chemistry with double-play partner, and mentee (or what ever the opposite of mentor is) Omar Infante.

A final numerical way to look at his contribution to the Tigers is Win Shares. His 25 Win Shares are tops on the team. While his total Win Shares will change since he’s done for the season, he will probably still be on top because Pudge is next closest at 20 WS. It’s also noteworthy that Guillen put up these tremendous numbers while making starts at every spot in the batting order except 8 and 9.

Unfortunately the timing of the injury will leave him short of a couple benchmarks. He’s 3 doubles shy of 40, 3 runs shy of 100, and 3 RBI shy of 100. Also, he is 17 plate apperances shy of 600 which means he misses out on $150,000 of incentive money.

In any case, Guillen endeared himself to all Tiger fans when he signed a 3 year contract extension during the season. The Tigers finally have a star that likes playing for Detroit. He signed early and missed out on free agency during a career year because he was happy here.

It is ashame to see Carlos Guillen’s MVP caliber season cut short due to injury. Fortunately, he’ll be back next year. Whether he can post the same numbers remains to be seen, but it won’t take away from one of the best seasons Tiger fans have witnessed in the last decade.

Almost a month ago, on August 18th Jeremy Bonderman was shelled by the Chicago White Sox. He gave up six runs in 3 2/3 innings. Doubts about the Tigers bringing Bonderman to the big leagues too early were at an all time high (myself included). Detroit decided to stick with Bonderman in the rotation, but with the condition that he wouldn’t think so much. The plan was to “let Bonderman be Bonderman.”

Side Note: I’m not sure what to make of it, but this philosphy of having struggling Tigers players stop thinking has had tremendous success. Brandon Inge stopped thinking last year after being recalled from the minors and has become an offense force since then. Recently, Craig Monroe and Carlos Pena stopped thinking and have both been torching the ball. Alex Sanchez probably deserves mention here as well, but I just don’t know how to account for him.

In Bonderman’s first start without thinking he again faced the White Sox. This time he pitched a complete game shutout where he struck out 14. (Bonderman is the only AL starter to strike out more than 13 in a game this season). He followed that up with a respectable start in Fenway in which he allowed 3 runs in 6 1/3. A patient Red Sox team did manage 4 walks against only 4 strikeouts. The next two starts against the Devil Rays and Royals resulted in only 2 runs in 15 innings and 17 strikeouts.

Last night against Cleveland he wasn’t as sharp as he only lasted 5 2/3, but in giving up 3 runs did well enough to get the win. What was notable though is that Victor Martinez’s home run in the 6th inning, was the first dinger that Bonderman has allowed since a grand slam to Aaron Rowand back on August 18th. As you probably remember, Bonderman was giving up quite a few homers early in the season-especially for someone who pitches in Comerica.

What may have contributed to Bonderman’s recent ability to limit home runs, is that since he stopped thinking, he’s become much more of a severe ground ball pitcher. Over his last 6 games he has allowed 55 grounders and 23 fly balls for a GB/FB ratio of 2.39. Prior to this string of games, his ratio was 1.25 and last year it was 1.41.

As dire as Bonderman’s season looked a month ago, his recent string of games has made his season numbers look respectable – especially for a 21 year old. He’s 7th in the AL in strikeouts despite only having pitched 166 innings. What’s more is that his K/9 of 8.3 is third behind only Johan Santana and Pedro. That’s some pretty impressive company at any age. And while his ERA of 5.17 is a bit high, his dERA (or DIPS or Defense Independent Pitching) is actually only 4.37.

Now to be fair and temper some enthusiasm, Bonderman’s most successful recent starts have come against the Royals, White Sox, and Devil Rays which aren’t offensive juggernauts. Also, whether or not he has turned the corner or is just on a hot streak remains to be seen. Keep in mind that Jason Johnson, Mike Maroth, and Nate Robertson have all had similar stretches of dominant pitching this season. In any case, this recent stretch has shown just how good a pitcher Bonderman can be.

There has been alot of talk lately about how the Tigers will have a significant amount of money to play with this offseason. Hefty contracts to players who haven’t been contributing do come off the books. However, it will cost the Tigers significantly more to keep their current players as many get raises or become arbitration eligible.

Damion Easley ($6.63 million), Matt Anderson ($4.3 million), and Danny Patterson ($2.8 million) make up about 20% of the Tigers’ payroll this year, and Danny Patterson is the only one to contribute anything. Add in a $500,000 buyout the Tigers made to Danny Patterson and that’s $14.23 million that Tigers can use to go out and get a front of the rotation pitcher or Carlos Beltran right? Not exactly.

Carlos Guillen is due for a $1.5 million raise next year. Actually, Guillen has already accrued enough plate appearances to garner $550,000 in incentives this year, and with another 75 plate apperances will gather another $350,000. Also, the Tigers will be paying Pudge an additional $2.9 million. Jason Johnson will get an additional $1 million next year, as will Urbina if the Tigers pick up his option (and it’s a $500,000 buyout if they don’t). Speaking of buyouts, to avoid paying Matt Anderson next year the Tigers have a $400,000 buyout on his option year. Setting aside Guillen’s incentive money, and assuming they pick up the option on Urbina, that’s $6.8 million eating into the FA money.

Then there is the case of the cheap young Tigers who won’t be cheap anymore. Mike Maroth, Alex Sanchez, Brandon Inge, Gary Knotts, Nate Cornejo, and Carlos Pena all become arbitration eligible I believe. Leaving out Cornejo who probably won’t be in line for a sizable raise those other 5 guys are significant contributors and make a combined $1.71 million. Now with Maroth there has been talk about him being dealt in the offseason. However, anybody taking his spot in the rotation will probably be making more than the $330,000 that he’s currently making. Alex Sanchez could be let go because the Tigers have a cheap option in Nook Logan. I don’t think uber-sub Inge is going anywhere, and he’s earned himself a raise next season.

As for Pena and Munson (Munson is also arb-eligible but is coming off a $1.5 million dollar contract already) the Tigers will have to pay a little bit more to keep both of them. Munson might get a little less, and Pena should get some more. However it appears that the Tigers (or Trammell) have given up on Munson completely. While Trammell has been playing the hot hands a lot lately, Munson has 18 AB’s since his two homer game on August 8th.

So while there are some large “dead” contracts coming off the books, and the Tigers will have a little more money to play with it will probably be more along the lines of $6-7 million instead for $14 million.

Now Mr. Illitch could always authorize Dombrowski to increase the payroll. That isn’t an unlikely scenario with the Tigers increase in revenue. Attendance should come in just under 2 million fans, which also brings in additional concession, parking, and merchandise dollars. Plus with the improved product on the field, and the fact that the Tigers season ticket holders are almost guaranteed to renew to get All Star tickets, the team can even raise ticket prices. TV ratings are up and commercial space is actually in demand which should result in a better contract next year.

Does this mean that the Tigers will be as agressive this year as last year? We can only hope. The difference is this year the Tigers won’t have to overbid just to get people to talk with them.

Miscellaneous:
-Thanks for your patience during this long blog drought. My move went well although we’re still not unpacked. At least I’ve had some time to watch the Tigers the last few nights.
-I have to say I was as thrilled as everyone with Jeremy Bonderman’s outing on Monday night. It ranked as the 9th best pitched game in the AL this year according to game scores. Remarkably, Tiger starters have 3 of the top 10 pitched games in the AL this year. Mike Maroth’s gem against the Yankees, and Jason Johnson’s duel with Johan Santana against the Twins are the others.