All posts by billfer

links for 2008-11-11

No on Varitek, No on Laird, Yes on Bard

The Tigers are in the hunt for a catcher. Brandon Inge has been moved to third base and Dusty Ryan may be ready to contribute at the big league level, but I don’t think anybody is comfortable with him being handed the full load at this point. With this need has come speculation about where the Tigers may turn. Two names that have been floated out repeatedly are Jason Varitek and Gerald Laird. I’m not particularly a fan of either. So I turn my attention West to the discarded Josh Bard.
Continue reading No on Varitek, No on Laird, Yes on Bard

For you Twitter-ers out there

If you’re a Twitter user, I created a new profile that just tracks Detroit Tigers news.  It is @TweetingTigers. I’ve set it up to pull in the RSS feeds from all Tigers blogs (well, I’m working towards all and plan to get there) and I’m planning to add in the Tiger related feeds from the big dailies as well. The result, you get notified whenever a Tigers blogger or another traditional Tigers source posts a story.

As an aside, if you’re interested in following my updates you can do so @billfer.

As a further aside, or what should probably be a precursor, Twitter is a microblogging service. Think of it as a cross between blogging and instant messaging. If you’re interested in learning more Twitter has a how-to video and Darren Rowse recently launched a blog of called TwiTip.

links for 2008-11-06

Fun with the Bill James leaderboards

The Bill James Handbook is always one of the first baseball books to come out each year. It’s not a riveting narrative by any means and it consists largely of tables of numbers. But there are always some interesting pieces and there seems to be something new every year. Last year it was the Young Talent Inventory. This year it is a bullpen analysis. They sit alongside managerial stats, baserunning stats, and the Fielding Bible awards. But one of my favorite sections is the leaderboard.

I’m not going to copy a bunch of leaderboards for you here. That might be kind of tedious and boring for everyone, and it would definitely be a copyright violation. But I will point out some Tiger related items that are either interesting, or surprising, or noteworthy.

  • Despite coming back from a horrific shoulder injury, and ending the season early, Joel Zumaya still let the AL with 18 pitches thrown over 100MPH. Brandon League was next closest with 4. Fernando Rodney even managed 2 over the century mark.
  • Speaking of fastballs, Justin Verlander’s 93.6 average was 6th in the AL and Kenny Rogers’ 85.2 MPH heater was slower only than Tim Wakefield’s.
  • Armando Galarraga threw a slider 38% of the time which was the highest rate in the AL.
  • Despite Verlander’s struggles, his .377 slugging percentage against was good enough for 8th best.
  • Rogers and Nate Robertson both ranked in the top 5 in GIDP/9. Just think how bad things would have been if they hadn’t had so many twin killings.
  • Edgar Renteria was 4th in SS pivot percentage. Renteria also had the 2nd highest batting average against left handed pitching with the 7th highest batting average at home. If only the Tigers faced lefties at home more often…
  • Curtis Granderson continued his maturation by taking the 8th highest percentage of pitches and seeing the 5th most pitches per plate appearance.
  • Placido Polanco struck out less per plate appearance than anyone else in the AL, but it didn’t help him in run production where he had the 8th lowest RBI percentage (5.96)

Rumors, Rumors everywhere

A lot of talk, A lot of speculation piping out of the GM meetings in California. Right now it seems like most teams are in on most players. But there are some names being rumored to the Tigers. Today’s rumor and moderately relevant news rundown:

  • The Tigers are in on Rafael Furcal, or at least plan to talk to him.  Furcal is of course a stud.  He’s also been a stud who’s had a hard time staying on the field the last 2 seasons. The Tigers won’t get into a bidding war, but I could see them going for a year deal or one and an option year.  That would only prove attractive to Furcal if nobody else is willing to offer him an extended deal and he wants a short contract to prove his worth/health.
  • If the Tigers want to buy low, there is a chance they could pursue Khalil Greene.  Rumor has it they have at least kicked the tires – as have the Orioles and Reds.  Greene is slated to make $6.5 million next year before becoming a free agent.  The length is right, but 20-25% of the team’s budget on a player coming off a 213/260/339 season that saw him 4 plays below average at short.  If the Tigers were to pick up the salary, he should come essentially free in terms of prospects though.  Which is good since he’s a .304 career OBP guy.
  • Scott Boras says that Magglio Ordonez doesn’t expect to be traded.  I don’t actually believe anything that Scott Boras says though so take that for what it’s worth.
  • AJ Burnett opted out of his Blue Jays contract.  I don’t bring this up because the Tigers have been connected to him, but because he’s now another arm in the free agent pond.  And if the Tigers go fishing there, it may help with the team’s chances at Lowe’s or Garland’s or others.
  • Junichi Tazawa, who I thought might be a worthwhile bullpen target for the Tigers, has been offered a major league deal by the Braves.  Too rich for my blood.
  • The Tigers have made Fernando Rodney available. Rodney is frustrating to be sure, but he’s not the worst guy to have in the pen and for the cost it would be hard pressed to increase on his production – when healthy.  That’s a big factor though as Rodney has really only maintained health in 2006.

Dombrowski talks payroll and closer

Jon Paul Morosi is covering the GM meetings from California and he caught up with Dave Dombrowski. Among the nuggets Dombrowski spoke about the 2010 closer situation and the payroll.

On a closer for the year-after-next, Dombrowski believes the candidate is in house. Given the college-reliever heavy draft this summer, that isn’t surprising. Among Ryan Perry, Cody Satterwhite, and others (Casey Fien, Joel Zumaya, Freddy Dolsi) I’d hope that’s a safe bet. It also makes it unlikely, as Morosi points out, that the Tigers are going to go after a top shelf free agent closer who will command multiple years.

Dombrowski also revealed that the 2009 payroll would not see “a significant difference” from 2008. With the team already committed to spending a little over $100 million on 11 players, that means the Tigers have about $25 million left to find a shortstop, a catcher, resign Justin Verlander, bolster the bullpen and rotation, and fill in the rest of the spots with league-minimum players under club control (like Matt Joyce).

At GM meetings, Dombrowski says Tigers have in-house closing candidates for 2010 | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press

Let the offseason begin

With the World Series officially over after the longest game 5 ever, I half (actually more than half) expected the Tigers to make a trade today.  When I saw a press release come across I thought my intuition was correct.  Instead it was a compilation of roster moves and the hiring of a bullpen coach.

The Tigers rehired Jeff Jones to be the bullpen coach after firing him at the end of the season.  I don’t find it that surprising or awkward.  Jones had been all but assured a role in the organization and his firing was more related to the dismissal of Chuck Hernandez.  I’d imagine Rick Knapp had the freedom to look elsewhere, but decided to stick with Jones.

The Tigers also announced that Dane Sardinha and Gary Glover had been outrighted and both decided to  become free agents.  As I imagined when Virgil Vasquez was claimed, he was one of several the team were pruning.  Eddie speculates on the motivation for the Tigers keeping Eddie Bonine and Mike Hessman on the big league roster.

Another spot on the 40 man roster was freed when the Tigers formally declined Edgar Renteria’s option.  This is hardly news though since Dave Dombrowki indicated as much a month ago. 

Declaring free agency was Freddy Garcia.  Garcia is still in the long toss stage after leaving the last game of the year with tightness in his greater shoulder area.  Don’t read too much into this as it is merely a formality. 

In addition to the Tigers getting their house in order, there is speculation about potential targets.  Jason Varitek’s name has gained some steam.  Mostly due to a Ken Rosenthal report that Scott Boras is shopping Varitek to Detroit.  But I have to agree with the consensus that this would not be a good thing.

Now Chad Cordero on the other hand…that’s worth considering for the right price.  And while the Tigers, like many teams, would be hesitant to offer much in the way of guaranteed money they can offer a wide open bullpen situation.

links for 2008-10-29

  • BA looks at the best lefty/righty combo's in the minors. Casey Crosby and Rick Porcello put the Tigers on the list at 10.
  • Six of the top seven Tigers in FIP+ were bullpen pitchers (and one was Jason Grilli). And the bullpen was pretty bad. Yeah, it wasn't a good season.
  • This is a couple days old now, but Rogers hasn't decided if he's retiring. I'm very thankful for what Kenny did in 2006. But 2008 was awful and I can't see a role for him on the 2009 edition. And don't say pitching coach. He got a lot of credit for that stuff in 06, but he wasn't able to help in that regard at all in 2008 – much like Chuck Hernandez.
  • For those wondering about how much big league service time Tigers have accrued. It is listed as x.yyy where x is the number of years and .yyy is the fractional part of the year expressed as the number of days. So 7.109 would mean 7 years and 109 days (there are 180 days in a big league season).
  • Beck spoke with Renteria's agent and the Tigers haven't had any additional contact. Renteria is looking towards pointing himself in a different direction.

Virgil Vasquez claimed by Red Sox

The Tigers placed Virgil Vasquez on waivers and he was claimed by the Red Sox today. Vasquez had a strong showing in the AFL in 2006 and got a couple shots to start in 2007. However he struggled in 2008 for AAA and even the pitching starved Tigers didn’t call him up.

The timing of this is a little odd. Could it be that the Tigers were clearing 40 man roster space to announce a trade at the completion of the World Series? If so why not just jettison Dane Sardinha or Macay McBride (who also could be on waivers, we just don’t know it)? Most likely this is roster pruning heading into the offseason. With Vasquez they probably would have liked to have kept him, but not at the cost of a spot on the 40 man.

Defensive Projections

Chone Smith has compiled defensive projections for the 2009 season. He’s used 5 years of data (combination of Stats Zone Rating, Revised Zone Rating, and Total Zone), and weighted it such that the most current season receives the most weight. He also regresses the results and uses the Fans Scouting Report. The more data available the less regression, and when data is scarce the scouting report carries more weight.

Cherry-picking out the Tigers (the numbers represent runs/150 games):

Outfield

  • Granderson: 13
  • Ordonez: -4
  • Joyce: (Corner) 7, (Center) -1
  • Thames: -5
  • Guillen: -3
  • Raburn (Corner) 4, (Center) -4

Infield

  • Inge: (3B) 10
  • Renteria: (SS) -6
  • Polanco: (2B) 9
  • Cabrera: (1B) -1
  • Santiago: (SS) -1, (2B) 1
  • Guillen: (3B) 0, (1B) 5

Now there’s a good chance Renteria isn’t back next year, so some shortstop free agents:

  • Orlando Cabrera: 1
  • Eckstein: -3
  • Everett: 19

Adam  Everett could be in a pretty steep defensive decline and even being +2 wins with his glove, his bat is so bad it probably can’t overcome it.  It’s not a great group that is out there, and one more year of Renteria if he can come cheaply might not be a bad bet.

Strike Throwing – Part 1 – Lots of Tables

The Tigers walked a lot of people last year. Along the way they threw a lot of pitches, and many seemed to be ill advised. The performance cost Chuck Hernandez his job, jettisoned in favor of an instructor whose students have gone on to gain some renown as strike throwing machines. Armed with a season’s worth of pitch f/x data I’m ready to start delving into this whole strike throwing thing. We’ll start today with some general league wide information.

For those unfamiliar with pitch f/x I’ll have some additional links to more information at the end of this article. The short explanation is a couple of cameras measure the direction and speed a ball is moving shortly in front of the mound. From this the pitch’s path is calculated to within an inch of where it crosses the front of home plate. And it draws the trajectory in the MLB.com Gameday application. On to the data…
Continue reading Strike Throwing – Part 1 – Lots of Tables