All posts by billfer

2008 Season

Why Maggs will be a Tiger next year

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There’s been a popular refrain that the Tigers will trade Magglio Ordonez this offseason. The thinking is that a)Magglio is a pretty good player and b)the Tigers would free up salary and c)the Tigers could get prospects to fill needs or even just replenish the farm system. While tenet A is true, parts B and C unfortunately are near mutually exclusive.

Ordonez is certainly a good player. He has a .380 wOBA this season which is a little more than 2 wins above average. Defensively it depends who you ask. He’s either a little below average or average-ish. In the interest of pumping up his value, we’ll call him an average fielder.

We’ll come back to value in a minute. But for now we’ll focus on his contract. Ordonez has one more guaranteed year on his deal at $18 million for 2009. There are then 2 club options – sort of. They are club options that can also vest due to playing time. If Ordonez makes 135 starts next year or 540 plate appearances the two options years become guaranteed at $15 million per. Or, if he has 1080 plate appearances between 08 and 09 they vest.

Ordonez is at 555 PA’s this year and will likely finish right around 600 for the season. Meaning he’ll only need 480 PA’s next year. Presumably a team isn’t going to trade for a player with the hope he gets injured, let’s assume that Ordonez plays a full year and his real remaining contract is 3 years and $48 million.

Ordonez will be 35 next year, so his contract extends through his age 37 season. Would you sign a 35 year old above average corner outfielder to a 3 year, $48 million deal?

To answer this, we can turn to a methodology that we tapped in the offseason to evaluate free agent deals. If we deem Ordonez to be a 2 win above average player (which is reasonable since his current season is close to his career numbers) that makes him 4 wins above replacement level. We penalize him a half win for aging and another half win for being a corner outfielder (he’d get bonus points for playing short or center or catcher) making him 3 wins above replacement. Using this table, that would a 3 year deal worth $35.9 million. Now that was last year, so if we add on 10% inflation it brings a 3 year deal to $40 million-ish.

So Magglio’s deal isn’t particularly attractive one if you were signing him as a free agent. So why would a team give up any prospects of value (or even not of value) to acquire him and his salary? The Tigers could send some money along with the deal, but then they are paying a handsome sum for prospects, plus they would be losing production in right field. And as much as we may like Matt Joyce, Ordonez is a solid bet to put up better numbers. Plus I don’t see the Tigers abandoning contention in 2009. The moves that have been made the last 2 years have been to give the Tigers a 2-3 year window to compete. Next year will not be a rebuilding year – at least not out of spring training.

I just don’t see a scenario where it makes sense for the Tigers to move Ordonez (unless another team is really dumb).

2008 Season, Injuries

The Clete Thomas injury

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Hey, it’s Tommy John surgery time. Clete Thomas, who showed some promise with a nice eye from the left side of the plate and a cannon of an outfield arm will be missing the AFL, spring training, and some more. He underwent surgery today under the hand of Dr. James Andrews.

Thomas is likely on the shelf for the next 6 to 8 months, making his presence on the roster early in the season extremely unlikely. Once again though we have a player trying to play through injury with poor results.

According to the Free Press article Thomas felt it pop back in June. He manned-up and kept playing until the pain was overwhelming.

He then hit the DL at the end of August, mis-diagnosed with an elbow sprain. Rehab and a re-evaluation were recommended culminating in an unfavorable MRI.

It’s a story that’s been told all too often the last two years where injured players are hurting themselves and the team. I don’t know why they are staying on the field as long as they are. Whether it’s a communication issue, and eagerness issue, or a problem with the medical staff. But it needs to be one of the top priorities addressed this offseason.

2008 Season, Free Agents

A reliever worth targeting

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Junichi Tazawa is an amateur reliever from Japan. He’s decided to skip Japanese professional baseball and come stateside.

Tazawa is younger than the typical Japanese import, because he’s not waiting the 9 years required for international free agency as a pro player. He’s 22 and features a low 90’s fastball, a 12-6 curve and a shuuto (kind of like a screwball it moves in on righties). That repertoire led to a a 56K:4BB ratio in 54 innings.

The advantage of pursuing Tazawa, is that he wouldn’t require any compensation beyond the contract. There’s no players to trade. There’s no draft picks floating away (like with Juan Cruz – is he worth a first round pick?). And he’s young.

2008 Season

The 8th Inning – 2008

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Last year Sam Hoff started breaking down the season into 18 games segments, each representing 1/9th of the season, or an “inning.” Here is the 7th inning report.

The 8th Inning is over.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 8 innings in 2008:

                                        Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA
1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28 
2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61
3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83
4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17
5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43
6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03
7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92
8:  8-10  91- 118    27- 8-263/335/475    4-8- 92.2-6.90    4-2-5-4.68

In the 8th inning ended with a three game winning streak, otherwise it would have been really ugly. The pitching has completely fallen apart. They gave up seven or more runs in 50% of the games in the inning. The team is playing out the string and it is clear that most of the team cannot wait until September 28th comes. Looking back at all the expectations that this team had in March, it is hard to believe how bad this team is.

The starting pitching was abysmal. Galarraga was the only pitcher with an ERA under 5.00 (and he barely made it). Miner has come back down to earth after some very good starts and the great mystery of Verlander’s 2008 struggles continue. Kenny Roger’s career looks over and Nate Robertson gave up 5 homeruns in his only start! 

Name	               GS	IP	       W	L	K	ERA	WHIP
Zach Miner	        4	23.1	       2	0	10	5.40	1.37
A Galarraga	        3	20       	0	1	15	4.95	1.45
Chris Lambert	       3	11.2	       1	1	8	6.17	1.89
Justin Verlander	4	20    	        1	2	20	6.30	2.10
Kenny Rogers	       3	14    	        0	3	8	11.57	2.14
Nate Robertson	       1	3.1	        0	1	0	14.73	3.27

In the Bullpen, Kyle Farnsworth was terrific. The 2 Tampa reject (Glover and Fossum) also pitched well. Francis Beltran pitched 2.2 scoreless innings. No one else had a WHIP below 1.64. Do not be fooled by Rodney’s 5 saves, He gave up 7 walks and 10 hits in 8 innings! 

Name	                G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Kyle Farnsworth	       0	7.2	1	0	0	10	0.00	1.17
Casey Fossum	       0	10.2	1	0	0	5	2.53	0.94
Gary Glover	             0	10    	1	1	0	5	3.60	0.90
Francis Beltran	       0	2.2	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00
Aquilino Lopez  	    0  	14    	0	0	0	11	4.50	1.64
Fernando Rodney	       0	8    	0	1	5	11	4.50	2.13
Clay Rapada	       0	2.1	1	0	0	1	3.86	2.14
Freddy Dolsi	       0	2.1	0	0	0	1	7.71	3.00
Nate Robertson	       0	5    	0	0	0	3	12.60	2.00
Bobby Seay	        0	4.2	0	0	0	3	13.50	2.57

The offense scored over 5 runs/game. Cabrera, Ordonez, and Granderson are leading the pace. Can anyone give a good reason why Sheffield is continuing to garner his regular playing time? If he gets to 500 homeruns (he needs 4 more) is he going to retire? If that is the case, bat him leadoff so he can get his milestone and save the Tigers 14m next year. Displaying from best to worst:

Name	                G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Miguel Cabrera	        18	67	8	20	0	.299	.347	.716
Magglio Ordonez	        18	70	4	16	1	.386	.408	.700
Curtis Granderson	18	68	3	9	1	.324	.459	.632
Edgar Renteria	        14	48	2	5	2	.292	.327	.521
Mike Hessman	         7	17	2	3	0	.235	.350	.647
Marcus Thames	        13	40	3	5	0	.250	.279	.500
Placido Polanco	        16	71	0	7	1	.282	.301	.338
Carlos Guillen	         5	15	0	0	0	.267	.353	.400
Dusty Ryan	        2	4	1	2	0	.250	.400	1.000
Dane Sardinha	        2	3	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333
Ramon Santiago	       10	21	0	1	0	.238	.333	.286
Matthew Joyce	       16	31	0	2	0	.161	.308	.258
Brandon Inge	       17	53	1	7	2	.189	.279	.283
Gary Sheffield	       16	61	3	8	0	.180	.254	.361
Ryan Raburn	       11	14	0	1	0	.143	.143	.214
Jeffrey Larish       	8	25	0	3	1	.160	.192	.160

The Tigers must now go 12-6 in the final inning to have a winning record. DO NOT BET ON IT. As long as they keep trotting out Sheffield, Thames, and 29-year old minor league legend Mike Hessman and do not play any youngsters, there is absolutely no reason to watch the train wreck known as the 2008 Tigers. Watch the Lions, their 50 year run of futility will make you feel better about the Tigers.

Uncategorized

WTF: Make your own acronym

63 Comments

WTF: What the…
WTF: Where’s the Focus
WTF: Where’s the fundamentals

This Tigers team continues to leave me lost and bewildered. I enjoyed a beautiful day at the park, as I watched the Tigers make 2 boneheaded plays on the bases. Twice today the Tigers hit into double plays, and neither were of the ground ball variety.

Curtis Granderson was half way to third base when Magglio Ordonez’s blast to center was hauled in during the 9th inning. The trouble was there was only one out and Granderson had started on first base.

When the Tigers loaded the bases in the 6th inning (the third time of the day), Marcus Thames hit a liner to third base. Mike Hessman who was on first was caught way off the bag.

That was actually a little karmic for Thames, who was hung off of second base when Brandon Inge hit a liner to second the night before.

People will scream about fundamentals, and rightfully so. But these are professionals who play the game 8 months a year. Most have been playing professionally at least a half dozen years. Of course they know what they should and shouldn’t do. Of course the coaching staff doesn’t coach them to make these mistakes. How does it happen?

I know a popular refrain is that the Tigers have mailed it in. I don’t see it. I see guys hustling and moving as well (or in some cases better) than they have all season. This is a team that didn’t give away at-bats today. They worked 8 walks. They put runners on base late the night before. They posted 13 runs on Monday after coming out of the Metrodome playing a pair of strong games.

But this crap keeps happening and it’s inexplicable. Do you really think that a Curtis Granderson doesn’t care? Do you think he’s someone going through the motions? These guys are showing emotion when they do well and showing frustration when they don’t. And yet they continue to make mistakes.

I’m just at a loss.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 145: A’s at Tigers

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PREGAME: It’s a crisp fall evening tonight as the Tigers look to manufacture a 4 game winning streak. The Tigers send out Nate Robertson who takes the spot of the gimpy-hip’d Kenny Rogers. It is Robertson’s first start since he filled the Ballpark in Arlington with firework smog during a 5 homer, 3.2 inning stinker.

The A’s send out Dana Eveland. The Tigers faced him once this year and he walked 7 batters and didn’t make it out of the 5th inning. He was later demoted, but since returning has walked only 4 spanning 3 starts to go along with 14 K’s and no homers.

OAK @ DET, Tuesday, September 9, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 7:05

POSTGAME: Well, Nate Robertson wasn’t the problem. Nate went 7 innings on only 79 pitches, 60 of them for strikes. The A’s are a poor offensive club, but that is a very nice line regardless. But then there was the bullpen. Leery of the fact that Robertson hadn’t started in a few weeks, he didn’t want to extend him to far so he went to a Farnsworth-less (groin injury) bullpen in the 8th.

Leyland ripped into the Bobby Seay walk and the Fernando Rodney 0-2 pitch leading to a triple. Rodney ended up blowing the save. His first blown save since the Tampa melt down, a span that included 14 games, a 2.12 ERA, and 9 saves in 14 games.

The offense did little, except return to their double play ways. Ordonez is an amazing 2 for 12 in bases loaded situations this year, and was one of the culprits. Inge lined into a tough luck double play. Granderson is a remarkable 0 for 11 in this series. Remarkable in the sense that he hasn’t reached base in the last 2 games after having pushed his OBP to .391. Ergh.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 144: A’s at Tigers

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PREGAME: It’s my birthday, so if the Tigers don’t win I’m going to be pissed. It is also Samara’s birthday. And it’s Natalie’s birthday, and while she’s not quite as emotionally invested in the team, she’ll still be a little sad. So win damn it. So if they don’t win she’s going to be pissed.

Of course if it keeps raining things might be out of their control.

OAK @ DET, Monday, September 8, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 7:05

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 143: Tigers at Twins

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PREGAME: The Tigers look to end their Metrodome misery by taking the series. They’ll send out Chris Lambert. Lambert allowed half as many runs and lasted almost twice as long in his second start. If he can continue on this improvement trajectory the Tigers hould be in good shape.

The Twins will feature Glen Perkins. Perkins has uninspiring peripherals, but he’s held the Tigers to 5 runs in 20.2 innings this year with 13 K’s and 5 walks.

Also worth pointing out, the 250,000th Major League homer will be hit some time today.

DET @ MIN, Sunday, September 7, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

2008 Season, Injuries, Pitching, Players

Rotational Flux

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The Tigers are going to be mixing and matching down the stretch it appears. Kenny Rogers will miss his next start. This is due to hip pain that is believed to be rendering him completely ineffective. (Yes, the old guy has a bad hip. The jokes seem to easy to make, but too easy to ignore also.)

In his place will likely be Nate Robertson. I think it’s a safe assumption that this has more to do with needing a starter than Robertson pushing his way back.

Also, it looks like Dontrelle Willis may get a start. Willis and Freddy Garcia will pitch against each other in another simulated game on Tuesday, and the decision will probably be made at that point.

If Willis is healthy and the mechanical tweaks are in place, then by all means start him. I know it would be nice to wait until everything is perfect, but Willis needs to be in game situations, and at this point it won’t cost the Tigers anything. But the key is if he’s healthy.

Between the knee and more recently the forearm, you have to question if Willis has been healthy at any point this year. Sending an injured pitcher out there to see what you’ve got doesn’t help anyone.

2008 Season, Pitching

Verlander and Leyland do lots of talking, and Hernandez chimes in

28 Comments

As the Tigers season has slid out of control, Jim Leyland has taken to reading and the newspapers and responding to what his players say in the newspapers. The latest was with Justin Verlander. Verlander mentioned a tight strike zone as a reason for his Labor Day labors.

Leyland didn’t like the excuse making. The two had a chat and everyone is happy now, but Verlander still isn’t pitching well. So his pitching coach comes out and makes an excuse for Verlander. Verlander was trying too hard in many of those starts. Whatever.

Chuck Hernandez screwed up Justin Verlander from the start this year. His intentions were fine, trying to make Verlander a more efficient pitcher and keep him strong for later in the season. Unfortunately Herandez took something that wasn’t broken and broke it. Verlander altered his mechanics, with poor results. He switched back, and had some success as he regained velocity and bite. But now he’s back to struggling again and back to working on his mechanics.

When Verlander was drafted there were concerns about control and mechanics, but the Tigers got those straightened out quickly and turned him into a stud pitcher. Now he’s still trying to regain what he once had in his first 3 years in pro baseball.

Hernandez has been under considerable scrutiny over the last year and a half. Not being privy to the coach/player interactions it is hard to know how much is the coach’s fault and how much is the player failing to execute. The pitching staff has just done too poorly though at this point for Hernandez to retain his job, and the management of Verlander may be the most damning evidence.