All posts by billfer

Minors

One less inefficiency to exploit

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When the Tigers pulled off the Cabrera/Willis trade, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller were the two key pieces. They had something in common – they slipped to the Tigers due to signability issues. The same thing happened in 2007 with Rick Porcello and the Tigers hungrily snapped him up, and like with the aforementioned players, were willing to go above slot to sign him. When the Tigers made the trade it was assumed that they would be able to replenish quickly due to Mike Ilitich’s willingness to spend for premium talent in the draft – but it appears that there will be less talent slips.

Peter Gammons notes that the small market teams have realized that the draft is the best chance to be on a level (or at least level-ish) playing field with the big spending teams. They can’t get the same free agents, but they can get the same quality of entry player. Gammons lists the top 10 teams in terms of signing bonuses to top 10 picks:

Royals, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Pirates, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Orioles and Astros

Many of these teams are the ones that were passing on the Maybins, and Millers, and Porcellos in past years.

This was a concern I had when the deal was initially made. That the league would see the Tigers were able to make the trade by spending big on the draft, and big on the draft is much more affordable than big on the free agent market.

As for the Tigers, they ranked in the bottom 7 in draft bonuses (or is it bonii?) in 2008. At the time I wondered if it was a matter of them saving money for international signings, which haven’t been formally announced by the team to the best of my knowledge but TigsTown notes that there had been 7 as of August 1st. I have no idea how much they spent, or how it compares to past years. It’s possible that the organization felt this wasn’t the draft to invest in, and that the players didn’t warrant the slot busting bonuses. Or because so much depth had been traded away, they wanted to avoid the risky picks for a year to get a quick infusion. Or the worst case scenario, the spending at the big league level may have taken a chunk out of David Chadd’s budget.

Regardless, and I don’t say this to diminish the work that Chadd and his staff do, the Tigers probably can’t rely on other teams passing on talent at the same rate they did in 2005 through 2007. Then again, the Tigers performance this year is dictating that they’ll have a chance at a pretty good player as they move down the standings and up the draft order.

2008 Season

The 7th Inning 2008

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Last year Sam Hoff started breaking down the season into 18 games segments, each representing 1/9th of the season, or an “inning.” Here is the 7th inning report.

The 7th Inning is over.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for the first 7 innings in 2008:

                                                          Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS –RA     HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA     W-L-S-ERA
1:  6-12  74 -112    15-10-262/345/404    3-9- 96.2-5.96    3-3-3-5.28 
2:  9-9   98 -87     21- 6-261/350/426    5-8-105.2-5.11    4-1-2-3.61
3:  8-10  89 -75     19- 2-275/326/442    8-5-109.2-4.19    0-5-4-3.83
4:  11-7  85 -74     19- 8-268/350/416    8-4-113.0-3.27    3-3-5-5.17
5:  12-6  86 -78     25- 6-297/347/476    6-4-106.1-4.23    6-2-6-3.43
6:  9-9   118-96     25- 8-299/368/483    8-6-105.0-5.49    1-3-2-4.03
7:  7-11  93- 103    26- 8-265/353/455    7-7-104.0-4.67    0-4-4-4.92

In the 7th inning found the Tigers start the inning with a 5-game losing streak that seemed to drain the life and energy out of the team and their fans. The season thus far can be broken into 3 distinct segments: The abysmal 24-36 start that dug a huge hole, the 28-13 run that started June 7th with a Thames’ lead comeback win against Cleveland that got the team to 52-49, and the most recent 10-15 run that was started July 25th with Dye’s 2-run 9th inning homerun off of Todd Jones.

The starting pitching improved as a unit from Horrible to Mediocre, the exception being Galarraga who was great. Displaying from best to worst:

Name	      GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP
Galarraga	4	26.2	3	0	19	2.36	1.16
Verlander	3	18    	1	2	16	5.50	1.39
Robertson	3	18    	1	1	12	4.50	1.72
Miner	        4	18.2	1	1	12	4.82	1.82
Rogers	       4	22.2	1	3	22	6.75	1.81

In the Bullpen, the emergence of Fernando Rodney as a closer was a bright spot. Bobby Seay continued to do well and Gary Glover provided 2.2 innings of perfect work. Other than those 3, it was pretty much like throwing gasoline on a fire. Displaying from best to worst:

Name	       G	IP	W	L	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Rodney	       7	9 2/3	0	1	4	14	1.86	0.83
Seay	        9	8    	0	0	0	9	3.38	1.13
Glover	       2	2 1/3	0	0	0	2	0.00	0.00
Dolsi	        4	5 1/3	0	0	0	3	1.69	2.06
Lopez  	       5	9 2/3	0	0	0	6	5.59	1.66
Beltran	       4	5 2/3	0	0	0	3	6.35	1.59
Fossum	       6	7 2/3	0	1	0	6	8.22	1.57
Farnsworth	7	7 1/3	0	0	0	7	7.36	1.91
Zumaya	       5	4    	0	2	0	4	9.00	2.75
Jones	        1	 2/3	0	0	0	0	0.00	9.00

The offense did OK. The 93 runs do not match a 1,000 runs/season pace, but scoring over 5 runs per game should be sufficient. Overall, I would give the individual hitters in the 7th inning a passing grade except our Catching tandem (Inge and Sardinha), and the extremely cold Marcus Thames. Displaying from best to worst:

Name	        G	AB	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Cabrera	      18	71	6	17	0	.282	.362	.606
Polanco	      17	69	3	9	2	.319	.390	.565
Granderson	18	74	4	11	2	.270	.372	.554
Renteria	17	59	2	6	1	.322	.385	.508
Guillen	      12	48	1	3	1	.292	.393	.438
Sheffield	17	63	5	13	1	.254	.347	.508
Joyce	        16	42	2	6	0	.262	.311	.476
Ordonez	      17	68	1	10	0	.279	.380	.368
Santiago	7	15	0	0	0	.267	.389	.267
Raburn	      12	32	0	2	1	.281	.324	.312
Inge	        18	60	1	8	0	.200	.314	.333
Thames	       8	27	1	2	0	.111	.111	.222
Sardinha	6	14	0	0	0	.071	.133	.071

Even if the Tigers were to go 28-8 over the remaining 36 games to get to 90 wins, both Chicago and Minnesota would have to play at or below .500 to win the division. The Wild card is even more daunting as the Tigers are 11 games back and would have to pass four teams. The last two innings should tell a lot about 2009 and what kind of direction the team will take in the off season. That is the only reason to keep watching this train wreck at this point.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 127: Tigers at Rangers

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PREGAME: Is broom-osity in order? Could the Tigers manage a sweep? I still think that if the Tigers go 27-5 over their next 32 games, things might get interesting.

Tonight it will be Nate Robertson going for the Tigers. The last time the Nate started in Texas he didn’t record an out, allowing 6 runs in the first. Here’s hoping for a little improvement. Robertson walked 5 in his last start, which is just too many.

Kevin Millwood takes the mound for the Rangers. He’s made 1 start since coming off the DL and the Rays got to him for 10 hits, 4 of which were homers, in 4.2 innings.

DET @ TEX, Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 8:05

POSTGAME: Nate was unbelievably craptastic. He wasn’t helped by his outfield defense early on with Granderson playing a ball into a triple (a pretty poor series for Granderson defensively – a rarity), and Matt Joyce playing a double into a triple. But holy crap, there’s nothing outifelders can do about 5 freakin’ homers.

Dontrelle Willis was also starting last night, but he kind of sucked too with 8 hits and 5 walks allowed in 5 innings – so he’s not ready. I can’t believe that Robertson would be allowed to stay in the rotation. Early on this season he was getting a little unlucky. Since the All Star Break he’s getting obliterated.

And the offense didn’t do much.

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 8-19-08

Toledo 2 Norfolk 1 (11 innings)
Freddy Guzman was 2 for 4 with a walk. Clete Thomas walked twice. Mike Hollimon singled and walked. Chris Lambert pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run on 5 hits, a walk, and 5 K’s. Clay Rapada, Casey Fien, and Francisco Cruceta went 1.1, 1.2, 1 innings respectively with each allowing a lone hit, no walks, and combining for 5 K’s.

Erie 5 New Britain 6
James Skelton went 3 for 4 with a walk and has pushed his average to .298 at Erie. Wilkin Ramirez doubled and singled. Josh Rainwater allowed 4 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks and 5 K’s. Rudy Darrow allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 3 walks while recording only 1 out and took the loss.

West Michigan 10 South Bend 9
Justin Henry, Chris Carlson, Ronnie Bourquin, and Kody Kaiser all had 2 hits. Alex Avila singled twice, doubled, and drove in 4 runs. The pitching was hurt by 4 errors. Lauren Gagnier allowed 6 runs in 4 innings on 8 hits, 2 walks and 3 K’s. Brett Jacobson pitched a scoreless inning allowing a hit and a walk while fanning 1.

NY Penn All Star Game
Mike Gosse went 2 for 2 with a walk. Brandon Douglass was 0 for 1. Tyler Stohr blew the save and took the loss allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk in .2 innings.

GCL Tigers PPD

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 126: Tigers at Rangers

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PREGAME: In the wake of the team’s disappointing season, Dave Dombrowski has been hammered for the moves he made or didn’t make this offseason. One move that did work out that never gets mentioned is picking up Armando Galarraga from the Rangers for nothing.

Galarraga returns to Texas tonight, but Jim Leyland doesn’t want him to make too big a deal out of it. Galarraga is content to let his performance, improved by Chuck Hernandez, do the talking. One thing to keep an eye on his Galarraga’s endurance. He went 121 pitches his last time out, farther than he’s gone this year.

The Tigers will face Vicente Padilla. The Tigers knocked him out after 7 runs in 3 innings his last time out. But he shut them down for 6 innings in 2007. He was pushed back due to some neck pain. He was rocked by the Orioles and Yankees in his last 2 starts.

The Tigers send out these 9 tonight:

  1. Granderson, CF
  2. Santiago, 2B
  3. Ordonez, RF
  4. Cabrera, 1B
  5. Guillen, 3B
  6. Sheffield, DH
  7. Joyce, LF
  8. Renteria, SS
  9. Inge, C

Santiago doubled and homered off of Padilla back in April and is 5 for 9 lifetime off him. So I guess Leyland is playing the match-up.

DET @ TEX, Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 8:05

POSTGAME: Nice win and a 2 game winning streak. Woot. Armando Galarraga was dominant through 5.1 innings, but then got knocked around for 3 runs before getting out of the 6th. It was another quality start, and another win which should help his ROY chances.

Gary Glover is still perfect as a Tigers reliever making me look stupid again. At least I’m used to it. And Casey Fossum had a 1-2-3 9th. The only guy that struggled was Bobby Seay who I had been arguing to be the 7th inning guy.

The offense overcame some early futility to bludgeon the Padilla and the bullpen in the 7th. They had runners in scoring position in the first 2 innings with nobody out and didn’t score them. They were undermined by 3 double plays. But Matt Joyce’s 2 homers, made those early struggles irrelevant. Everybody had hits tonight except Miguel Cabrera who hit a couple of balls hard again with nothing to show for it.

There was some very slick defense for the Tigers. Ramon Santiago made a nifty play up the middle and Carlos Guillen started a quick double play earlier on.

And credit to the Texas scorer for ruling Matt Joyce’s flyball an error. Normally if the ball doesn’t get touched it’s ruled as a hit. This time they ruled it an error, but they gave it to the wrong guy. It should have been Hamilton’s error.

Good news everyone. The Tigers moved ahead of the Rangers in the wild card chase. Only 4 more teams to go! (that’s sarcasm).

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 8-18-08

Toledo 0 Richmond 3
Timo Perez went 2 for 2 with 2 walks. Derek Wathan had the other hit. Anastacio Martinez went 7 innings and allowed 3 runs on 2 walks, 4 K’s, and 2 homers.

Erie DNP

Lakeland – Cancelled

West Michigan 0 South Bend 3
Joe Tucker had 2 hits. Mauricio Robles allowed just 1 run on 1 walk, 3 K’s and 4 hits in 7 innings. Orlando Perdomo allowed 2 runs in 1 inning of work.

Oneonta DNP

GCL Tigers 6 GCL Braves 9
Derek Lehrman was 2 for 3 including a homer and a walk. Luis Palacios doubled and singled. Casey Crosby, returning from Tommy John surgery, pitched a scoreless inning allowing 1 hit. But everybody else allowed runs.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 125: Tigers at Rangers

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PREGAME: Whenever the Tigers play the Rangers I think of George Kell saying something like “And the Tigers’ll be in Arrrlington on Toooosday night.” It sounds better in my head than it does on the computer though.

The match-up is Kenny Rogers, making a return to Texas and Scott Feldman. Feldman doesn’t strike out many, walks a few too many, and allows too many homers. Kenny Rogers strikes out fewer, doesn’t walk as many, and allows too many homers, but not as many as Feldman.

There’s lots of weather down there, so they might not play. A day off would probably help the bullpen, but a doubleheader would absolutely destroy it.

If they play it will be:

  1. Granderson
  2. Polanco
  3. Ordonez
  4. Cabrera
  5. Guillen
  6. Sheffield
  7. Joyce
  8. Renteria
  9. Inge

DET @ TEX, Monday, August 18, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Well, that was pretty good. The offense slumbered for awhile, but the Gary Sheffield homer seemed to get things started. It’s somewhat remarkable that the Tigers plated 8 runs when there 2-3-4 hitters combine to go 0 for 13 with 5 K’s and 2 walks.

Magglio Ordonez looked especially bad. He seemed very uncomfortable, check swings at 2-0 pitches, swinging through 3-1 fastballs. He fanned 3 times. Did you know it was only the 9th time in his career with at least 3 K’s? He’s only worn the sombrero once, a fate which he avoided his last time up with a full count walk.

Cabrera on the other hand kept hitting the ball hard with nothing to show for it.

Granderson with the 2 triples is always fun.

Gary Sheffield had a couple singles in addition to the homer. And Brandon Inge reached base all 4 times he was up, 2 hits, a walk, and HBP. If only Renteria could have done something we could have broken out the Whipping Boys.

Kenny Rogers was good enough, getting some key strikeouts (7 of them) and keeping the 12 baserunners he allowed mostly stranded.

Gary Glover was quite good. That surprised me, but he had a very uneventful inning.

Kyle Farnsworth was hammered. There were 3 different plays where he could have been helped a little by his defense (liner to Renteria, smash at Cabrera, and blast to centerfield) where there were tough plays, none of which were made. But everything was hit hard.

Fernando Rodney however was quite good. He fanned MVP candidate Josh Hamilton with the tying run on second in the 8th, and allowed only a HBP in the 9th inning.

Throw in some nice defense (Renteria, Ordonez), and some nice baserunning (Joyce), and there was quite a bit to like about this game.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 124: Orioles at Tigers

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PREGAME: The Tigers look to squeak out a series win. They’ll send out Zach Miner who is trying to lock up a spot in next year’s rotation. If Jim Leyland is as intent on performance dictating play time as he claims to be, if Miner can continue to pitch like he has since returning to the rotation, it should be a slam dunk. In 5 starts he’s gone 29.1 innings with a 17:5 K:BB ratio.

Garrett Olson takes the mound for the Orioles and he isn’t a good pitcher. A WHIP of 1.67, a pedestrian strike out rate, and a propensity to allow homers is a bad combination. The Tigers faced him in July and plated 5 runs in 6 innings.

Detroit sends out a neutered line-up with no Carlos Guillen, no Magglio Ordonez and Dane Sardhina catching (save the disparaging Inge jokes, Sardhina is substantially worse offensively).

  1. Granderson, CF
  2. Polanco, 2B
  3. Sheffield, DH
  4. Cabrera, 1B
  5. Thames, LF
  6. Renteria, SS
  7. Raburn, RF
  8. Inge, 3B
  9. Sardhina, C

BAL @ DET, Sunday, August 17, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Well, the offense was good. They battled back from a 5-1 deficit, but that’s about all I can say. Zach Miner got hammered, but he matched Garrett Olson. The difference was Casey Fossum and Aquilino Lopez and Francis Beltran allowing 11 runs in their innings.

Meanwhile the bullpen should be nice and tired heading into Texas – great. Maybe Gary Glover can give the pen a lift (that’s sarcasm).

On another note, Curtis Granderson probably expended more energy than Phelps this weekend chasing down the rockets off the bats of the Orioles.

Not a lot to see here. Keep moving along.

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

Todd Jones back to the DL

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Todd Jones is back on the disabled list. After 1 outing. Makes you wonder why he was brought off the DL in the first place doesn’t it? Of course it did take him a half hour to get out of that inning so that may explain it. Or perhaps Todd is toast and he’ll just finish the year on the DL instead of being outright released.

Oddly, Gary Glover had his contract purchased by the Tigers to fill Todd’s spot in the bullpen. Glover wasn’t even in the organization until last week when he was added to Toledo. Glover appeared in 29 games for the Rays this year with 18 walks and 22 strike outs in 34 innings. I don’t get this at all. Why not give Casey Fien a shot? Or bring back Francisco Cruceta who is striking out everybody in Toledo (or at least everybody he doesn’t walk) with 52 K’s and 20 walks in 36 innings? Or bring back Clay Rapada who is already using an option year and move Bobby Seay from lefty specialist to 7th inning guy.

I guess it’s better to give a handful of innings to a 31 year old journeyman pitcher who has wowed coaches in his 3 innings at Toledo. I’m sorry, there may be very valid roster management/option/service time issues at play here. I don’t get it though.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 124: Orioles at Tigers

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PREGAME: I’m heading down for my first back to back games this season. I saw Nate pitch bad last night, and I already saw Justin Verlander pitch poorly this week, so I’mdue for some decent baseball right?

It will be Dennis Sarfate who will try to stymie the Tigers for 7 or 8 innings until the Tigers make some late noise. Sarfate strikes out a batter an inning, but walks nearly as many.

Game Time 7:05

BAL @ DET, Saturday, August 16, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Nice win. Nice offense. Nice pitching. Mostly good bullpen-ing (an 8 pitch save for Rodney -woo). Other than a Carlos Guillen throwing error leading to 2 runs, it was a pretty clean game for the Tigers.

But I pretty much missed it. I had tickets to the game. Went to the game. Left before the game started. My son, who hadn’t been feeling well all day, got sick before the game started. He and I got to go on the field with a ton of other kids and coaches for Troy Baseball Booster day. While waiting in the bowels of the stadium, the number of people, the lack of air movement, and a stomach bug resulted in him puking in a groundscrew dumpster. So I apologize to Heather Nabozny and company, it was the best we could do under the circumstances. I think he may have topped his sister using the visitor clubhouse bathroom when she just couldn’t hold it anymore. This is the kind of stuff you just don’t get in the game stories from the beat writers.

Oh, and Edgar Renteria fanned 3 times and popped up a bunt for an out. I think that’s as close to the golden sombrero you can get with you actually getting it.

2008 Season, Game Post

Game 122: Orioles at Tigers

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PREGAME: The Tigers look to extend their 1 game winning streak to more than 1 game. They’ll face Chris Waters who has a total of 12 big league innings under his belt. In his first start he went on the road in LA and pitched 8 innings of 1 hit, shut out ball. In his second start the Rangers got to him for 6 runs in 4 innings.

Nate Robertson is coming off of one of his better starts of the year. Granted, it was against the A’s, but he fanned 5 and allowed just 5 hits and a walk in 7.1 innings. The last time he faced the Orioles he was spotted a 6 run first inning lead which he obliterated in the third inning.

BAL @ DET, Friday, August 15, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

Game Time 7:05

POSTGAME: Awful. I don’t leave early often, but we left in the 9th. Coincidentally just as the scoreboard announced Michael Phelps 7th gold medal – inspiring a cheer from a pissed off crowd.

Only this year could that ridiculous play with Polanco happen. I don’t think it was intentional, but regardless Polanco still had a brain lapse when he didn’t immediately pick up the ball allowing another run to score. It ended up being a moot point when what should have been an inning ending play turned into batting practice.

Nate Robertson wasn’t good again. This isn’t excuse making at all, but I’m just going to point something out. Coming into tonight, Robertson had a 942 OPS against when Inge was catching (8 games). This includes the infamous bed crappings against Baltimore and Cleveland. Robertson’s best start of late came when Dane Sardinha was catching. It’s likely a coincidence, but I’m just saying.

Speaking of Inge, he was awful tonight. He missed the throw from Magglio Ordonez in the second inning. It would have been close to cutting down the first run, but his nonchalance allowed the second run to score. Oddly he never took his mask off in that sequence. He also short circuited two different whipping boy rallies. It’s never a good sign when the guy after you leads off 3 different innings.

Miguel Cabrera had his struggles as well with an 0’fer night.

It was just a really bad game that turned really ugly.