All posts by billfer

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5-24-08

Louisville 1 Toledo 2
Mike Hessman tripled(for the 3rd time this season?) and walked. Casey Fossum fanned 11 (really?) while pitching 2 hit balls for 7 innings. Denny Bautista on his rehab assignment struck out 1 in 1 inning of work.

Erie 5 Akron 1
Dusty Ryan hit his 7th homer. Deik Scram had 3 hits and a walk. Danny Christensen allowed 1 run in 7 innings on 6 hits, 4 walks, and 2 strike outs.

Lakeland 0 Jupiter 1- suspended in the 2nd

Dayton 0 West Michigan 2
Joe Tucker tripled. Joe Bowen walked twice and singled. Jon Kibler had another excellent start with 6 K’s and 1 hit in 6 shut out innings.

Game 49: Twins at Tigers

PREGAME: It’s sports heaven in Detroit today with the Pistons in the Conference Finals and the Wings in the Stanley Cup finals, and the Tigers trying to not be eliminated from future finals consideration.

It will be Boof Bonser and Nate Robertson tonight.

The Tigers scored 6 off of Bonser in their last game against him. Yet the Tigers are scoreless against him in the last 5 innings.

Nate is Nate and will somehow give up 4 runs in 5 to 7 innings of work. At least the offense knows exactly how many they need to score.

MIN @ DET, Saturday, May 24, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: The Tigers did their part on sports day in Detroit. They plated 19 runs for the second time this season (the highest total by teams not from Detroit is 16 this year). We’ll get to the game in a second, but things are starting to look a little more normal. The Tigers are down to only 1 starter with an ERA above 6 and Gary Sheffield finally moved ahead of Ramon Santiago in RBI (who had Memorial Day weekend in the pool?).

Nate got himself a quality start. I was pretty sure that one of the inherited runners he left for Aquilino Lopez in the 7th would score, but Lopez finished the game with 2.2 scoreless innings.

And then there was the offense. Magglio Ordonez was the clear headliner with 2 RBI in each of his first 3 at-bats. Polanco had 4 hits. Sheffield had a couple hits. Heck, everyone had fun.

About that 1-25 record…

It is quoted after nearly every game, with only the loss column frequently changing. Currently it is 1-25, with IT being the Tigers record in games in which they score 4 runs or less. Some people point to it as a sign of the pitching staff’s futility while others question why the offense is scoring so little so often. Like many of the Tigers struggles this year, it can’t be attributed to just one area.

We’ll start by looking at some broader data. Below is data for the American League showing runs scored per game and the corresponding winning percentage so far in 2008.

AL Run Distribution

Not surprisingly it’s hard to win your scoring fewer than 2 runs a game, and the odds increase dramatically with the 2nd and the 4th runs. Now let’s look at what the Tigers have done.

What you’re seeing is how frequently the Tigers scored a certain amount of runs, how frequently it was done in the AL, how many games the Tigers won at each run point, and how many they would be expected to win given AL norms.

The thing with the 1-25 record is that the Tigers have scored fewer than 2 runs 12 times giving them 12 games with virtually no shot to win regardless of the pitching. And in those 4 run games where the team should have nearly a 50-50 shot of pulling out a W, the Tigers have only had 3 such games.

So with some normal pitching, the Tigers should have expected to win at most 3-4 more games. Chalk those up to the staff, but the bulk of the others fall squarely on the shoulders of the offense.

Draft talk

With the draft coming up next month, speculation about who the Tigers might be able to grab is picking up. With the 21st pick a lot will be out of the team’s control and given the volatility of a draft where signability is as big of a concern as playing ability, it can often be a fruitless effort.

Take 75 North has been scouring mock drafts to see who might be available and has written a few snapshots of some possible targets.

Lynn Henning does some research of his own and doesn’t see the Tigers blowing apart the slotting system like they did the last 3 years with Maybin-Miller-Porcello. But that might have less to do with the type of players involved rather than a change in philosophy. Henning notes catcher Jason Castro and reliever Andrew Cashner as potential options.

Baseball America’s first mock draft has Castro going to the Cubs 2 picks before the Tigers selection. And they have Cashner going 1 spot after the Tigers select prep righty Tim Melville. But they note that the Tigers might extend for high school first baseman Eric Hosmer if Scott Boras driven demands make him available that late.

Regardless, in an earlier interview with JP Morosi scouting director David Chadd indicated that the Tigers would just go with the best player available.

“My approach is we’re taking the best guy on the board,” Chadd said.
“We’re going to line it up how we see it, evaluate it and get the best
players up there accordingly. Those other issues, we’ll have to sit
down with Dave and discuss later.”

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5-23-08

Louisville 0 Toledo 6
Mike Hessman ended his sabbatical with a 3 for 4 night including homer number 19. Brent Clevlen had 2 hits including ahomer and Timo Perez homered as well. Virgil Vasquez scattered 8 hits over 7 innings and Francis Beltran pitched 2 no hit innings to complete the shut out.

Erie 0 Akron4
Erie was held to 3 hits making Danny Worth who doubled and walked the offensive star. Wilkin Ramirez singled and walked, as did Jeff Frazier. Jon Connolly allowed 4 runs in 7.2 innings on 8 hits, a walk, and 4 K’s.

Lakeland 3 Jupiter 2
Brennan Boesch went 2 for 4. Duane Below fanned 7 in 5 innings of work limited Jupiter to 1 run.

Dayton 2 West Michigan 3
Casper Wells was 2 for 4 with a double. Chris Carlson homered and walked. Roger Tomas was 3 for 3 with a walk. Lauren Gagnier allowed 2 unearned runs in 6.1 innings while walking 3 and fanning 7.

Game 48: Twins at Tigers

PREGAME: Remember the last time the Tigers swept a series? They were in New York and went to play the Twins and then got swept themselves. Let’s not do that again.

Did you know the Twins have played 28 of their games in the confines of the dome and are 16-12 there? But when they head on the road they are 7-12? Let’s hope that trend continues as Armando Galaragga takes his turn in the rotation.

For the Twins it will be Kevin Slowey who is making his 5th start of the season. He hasn’t made it through the sixth inning yet, but posts a 16:3 K:BB ratio over 19.1 innings. His achilles heel has been the long ball with 6 surrendered all ready. Last year he averaged over 2 allowed per game as well.

MIN @ DET, Friday, May 23, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

IN GAME: I think Leyland had a beef. Those were called strikes in that Guillen at-bat:

POSTGAME: Well, it got interesting there for a while. I missed the first 3 innings while at my son’s game so I didn’t see Galarraga walking everybody, but it sounded similar to his last start against the D-backs but the Twins added hits as well.

The Tigers couldn’t get to Slowey and couldn’t take advantage of his tendency to hit homers, but the offense still managed to put runners on base in most innings. And they did double his walk total for the season (and should have more than doubled it – see above graphic) so they did exhibit some patience.

An inspired rally in the 7th cut it to one, and could have tied it save for the comical play involving Marcus Thames running all over the field. Unfortunately the bullpen imploded under the eye of Lloyd McClendon who took over when Jim Leyland was ejected. McClendon let Willis throw 28 pitches and Bobby Seay 38 which would seem to indicate that both would be unavailable tonight.

Willis struggled with his control walking 2 (1 intentional) and throwing 15 balls versus 13 strikes.

Programming Note

I’ll be on the It Is What It Is show with Sean Baligian on WDFN 1130 this morning. I’m slated to be on at 10:35 so if you’re interested you can catch the stream. If the audio is available I will post that later today.

UPDATE: Here’s the audio from today: [audio:http://a1135.g.akamai.net/f/1135/18227/1h/cchannel.download.akamai.com/18227/podcast/DETROIT-MI/WDFN-AM/bill.mp3?CPROG=PCAST&MARKET=DETROIT-MI&NG_FORMAT=sports&SITE_ID=1128&STATION_ID=WDFN-AM&PCAST_AUTHOR=Sports_Radio_1130_WDFN&PCAST_CAT=sports&PCAST_TITLE=WDFN_-_Sean_Baligian] or you can download it.

Game 47: Mariners at Tigers

PREGAME: By winning the first two games of the series the Tigers assured themselves that they’ll enter the weekend in 13th place in the American League. Hopefully they have higher aspirations like opening up a 2.5 game lead over the Mariners in the race for first dibs on the waiver wire. (this is called not getting carried away over a 2 game winning streak)

Jeremy Bonderman will try to build on his excellent start in Arizona by reducing the number of foul pop-ups that go uncaught.

Miguel Bastista takes the bump for the Mariners. Batista walks a lot of people, kind of like Bonderman has this year. The Tigers have been pretty aggressive the last two games against pitchers who throw strikes predominantly. We’ll see if they adjust their approach to try and wait out Batista.

SEA @ DET, Thursday, May 22, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: I don’t want to knock a sweep, a pounding, a 3 game win streak. But I’m far from giddy. After winning the last 3 the Tigers are still 7 games under .500, and even with the Twins, Indians, and Royals losing at the same time they’re still 3 games out of 2nd. But that’s the hole they have dug.

Plus I’ve been really encouraged before, like when they swept the Yankees to move within 1 game of .500 only to go in the tank again. I guess I need another 10 games at least of good play, not necessarily wins mind you, but good play to start to get that shiny-happy feeling again.

Still, it’s unreasonable to expect them to win anymore than they did over the last 3 games so I can’t help but be happy with the sweep. Yes, the Mariners are playing really bad baseball. And the Tigers got the good fortune to miss Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. And the Tigers bullpen had issues in the one game. But the Tigers still doubled up the Mariners in this series. It’s not like they were squeaking out wins. They beat the Mariners to a pulp, or in Rod-ism form, like they stole something.

Slumping players seemed to bounce back a little and Bonder-lander put together a couple decent starts.

Good sweep. Now let’s see it again.

Comment of the day: Courtesy of T. Smith – This is like the Detroit Tigers playing the Detroit Tigers.

On a related note, check out the game thread at USS Mariner. We’ve all been witness to some bad baseball as Tigers fans this year so we can feel their pain. But at least the commentors are creative in their frustrations.

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5-21-08

Toledo – DNP

Bowie 2 Erie 9

Max St. Pierre hit a grand slam and Wil Rhymes tripled. Matt Righter allowed 2 runs and 2 walks leading to 1 run in 5 innings.

Palm Beach 11 Lakeland 11 (in progress)

The Flying Tigers had an 11-4 lead in this one. Rick Porcello got roughed up a little with 4 runs and 9 hits in 5 innings. He walked none and fanned 3. Cale Iorg had 2 hits, but 3 strike outs. James Skelton fanned 4 times and added a hit.

West Michigan 4 South Bend 1
Audy Ciriaco and Roger Tomas each had 2 hits. Alfredo Figaro allowed 2 hits and 5 walks of 7.2 innings of shut out ball.

Dontrelle Willis is almost back and headed to the pen

WDFN is reporting that Dontrelle Willis will rejoin the team today or tomorrow and will head to the pen while Armando Galarraga stays in the rotation.


UPDATE
: Old news now, but the corresponding roster move was Clay Rapada getting DL’d due to bicep tendinitis. Rapada certainly struggled his last time out so which may have cut the rehab session short of another start for Willis.

I’m surprised by the move of Willis to the bullpen, seeing as I just wrote that Willis should take Galarraga’s spot in the rotation. What do you know, I was wrong again.

But I do like that Galarraga isn’t going to the bullpen because I wanted him to remain stretched out as a starter – be that here or Toledo. I’m surprised that they would ask Willis to move to the bullpen. But he seems to be embracing it and was joking around with Todd Jones last night. And if he can work on things with Jeff Jones at the MLB level all the better. The tricky thing is getting Willis stretched out again when he rejoins the rotation.

Game 46: Mariners at Tigers

PREGAME: My goodness, wouldn’t it be nice to win back to back games? The last time that happened the Tigers were in New York.

A chunk of the responsibility tonight falls on Kenny Rogers. Rogers was knocked around to the tune of 11 hits and 7 runs in only 4 innings in his last start against the Royals. The 24 walks and 23 K’s in 47.1 innings are pretty ugly, as re the 5 homers. Rogers has limited Ichiro to a .551 OPS but the rest of the Mariners hit him to the tune of .762.

The hitters should be able to carry over the pounding of last night on to Jarrod Washburn. He’s left handed and not that good. But the Tigers have made lesser pitchers look dominant so I don’t know what to expect. One interesting split for Washburn this year is performance on first pitches. When put in play hitters are only 1 for 16 this year. Small samples to be sure but unusual. Also, even when hitters fall behind 0-1 they still hit 317/358/584 against Washburn this year. The career numbers are a 820 OPS for first pitch in play and 242/285/377 after 0-1 which is more telling. So swing away on the first pitch!
SEA @ DET, Wednesday, May 21, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: I missed most of this one. Acutally, I missed all of the Tigers scoring, but say the near implosions by Kenny Rogers.

But looking at the box score (and the parts of the game I saw):
offense=good
bullpen=good
rogers=not so good

All the starters got hits, but it was Marcus Thames and his granny, and Brandon Inge and his double and triple that drove home 6 of the 9 runs.

Zach Miner allowed 1 baserunner in 2.2 innings to pick up a rough night from Rogers.

That’s all I have tonight. Back to back wins are too rare, but still appreciated.

Tigers 9, Mariners 4

links for 2008-05-21