All posts by Kevin in Dallas

2014 Season, Hot Stove, Roster Management

DTW News and Notes 11-3-14

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Catching you up on a few things as the disappointment begins to fade away. See if you can find the theme below.

– Alan Trammell is back with the Tigers. Trammell said “it feels right.” It would feel more right if the Tigers hadn’t just been swept in the first round of the playoffs.

– The Tigers tendered qualifying offers today to Max Scherzer and Victor Martinez ($15.3M each). Neither guy will take it, but this guarantees a compensatory pick (or picks) in next year’s draft if the Tigers lose one or both. In case you’re unfamiliar with qualifying offers, they are meant to compensate teams who lose big free agents. The qualifying offer figure is set at the average of the top 125 players from last year. For each of those two free agents that the Tigers lose, the signing team will lose their 1st round pick (unless it’s a top 10 pick, in which case that team will lose a 2nd round pick), and the Tigers will get a compensatory pick at the end of the first round. Doesn’t really help much for 2015, and it definitely doesn’t change 2014.

– Andy Dirks is now a Blue Jay. Dirks was a nice player, but let’s not make him out to be more than he was. He wasn’t a long term solution here.

– Patrick McCoy was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles.

– Don Kelly and Evan Reed were optioned to Toledo.

– The Dirks/McCoy/Kelly/Reed moves were needed to make room on the 40 man for Bruce Rondon, Luke Putkonen, Drew VerHagen, and shortstop Jose Iglesias. I guess their 60 days is up.

– Finally, Mike Hessman has been resigned to a minor league deal. Yes, that Mike Hessman. Could have used his bat in the playoffs.

2014 Season

2014 Playoffs: Coda

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It’s with a great deal of angst and frustration that I write this.

Admittedly, I’ve browsed a few articles here and there, and forced myself to stay with sporadic MLB highlights before changing the channel to something less kick me in the gut, but the sting of the 2014 playoffs still remains.

I know you feel it.

As Tigers fanatics, we have entered into that dangerous limbo of good but not great, where expectations crescendo into a World Series or else mentality, and anything less is, well, unacceptable.

I remember seeing empty seats at Braves home playoff games in the 90s, and more recently in Tampa Bay, and thinking what spoiled, thankless punks those fans are.

Now our Tigers fans have not fallen to the same level of apathy; but I can see how that would be easier than the disappointment we are experiencing now.

For a while, early on, this team had it. The 27-12 start was a mix of offense, clutch hitting, and shutdown pitching, from both the starters and relievers. But for some reason, in early May, we lost it, and we spent the rest of the 2014 season looking for it. The talent on this team was so overwhelmingly good, that the Tigers were still able to win the division (I get that the AL Central is weak, but we can only play the schedule as given) even though the club played .500 ball for the final 3/4 of the season. This team lacked leadership and decisiveness at the top, and the lack of those intangibles manifested themselves into a shell of a playoff baseball team over four days in October. That “playoff team” was, unfortunately, exactly what we had come to expect.

And so we’re left to yearn for what could have been, or even worse, to try to ignore the yearning. It wrenches my sports heart, and clouds my ability to enjoy some entertaining baseball being played right now.

But eventually, the pain and disappointment will wear away. I know this from experience.

Somehow, some way, in the not too distant future, the pain will be replaced by hope, excitement, and even blind faith, though those feelings will be just a little bit weaker than this year’s. And so the pattern will continue until we are no longer contenders, or win on the final day of the baseball season.

So says a fan.

 

 

2014 Season, Game Post

2014 ALDS: Game 2

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Quick (and unusual) turn around for game 2. Which is exactly what we need.

Win this game and we’re going home, tied 1-1, with David Freaking Price pitching game 3. That’s right, DAVID PRICE.

To get us there, Verlander will have to be Playoff Justin, and not 2014 Regular Season Justin. By “Playoff Justin” I mean the guy with a 30-inning scoreless streak in the division series. The guy who still haunts the Oakland A’s. The guy who, time and time again, has put this team on his shoulders and delivered a win when we needed it most. Verlander hasn’t walked a batter over his past two starts, and I think he’s just as sharp today, if not even better.

Rajai Davis still CF. Good for the lineup, not sure if this is good for the defense.

Lots of stats in the Baseball-Reference game preview here.

My pick for player of the game is Kinsler. He’s been a complete player as of late, and I think he sparks the offense today.

Today’s #DoItForTheRotation lineup (with stats v. Wei-Yin Chen). Chen is pretty good, our hitters are better.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (3 for 10)
2. Torii Hunter, RF (1 for 4)
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (1 for 4)
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF (1 for 3)

 

2014 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

2014 ALDS: Game 1 Wrap-Up

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I’d love to pretend that I can forget last night’s game, and the complete exposure of every weakness this team has. I’d like to act as if I can brush off the concerns that T Smith nailed in his comment last night, as easily I would sweep aside the fall twigs and leaves on my doorstep.

But that’s not going to happen.

Let’s be candid. Last night sucked.

The Tigers played from behind last night all game, Scherzer failed to pitch to the level of an ace, Hunter couldn’t come up with a big hit, and the bullpen got de—-stroyed.

By any interpretation, this was absolutely the worst possible start to a series we could have hoped for.

But it’s just one game.

Remember when we had the best start to a series we could have possibly hoped for? Up 4 runs in the 8th inning with a 1-0 series lead, on the road? I mean, could we have felt any better then?

This is why winning the division was so important. We can stretch the series out. We get at least one game at home.

More coming soon.

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.162: Twins at Tigers

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89-72, 1 game up, magic number is 1.

It’s pretty simple here friends. Thanks to the White Sox, the Tigers still control their own destiny, even if those evil baseball schedule makers did force us to end the seasons against the Twins.

Win and we win the division. Lose and we can still win the division, if the Royals lose. If the Royals win, we are playing in Comerica on Monday for the division. Win that, and it’s against the Orioles (on Wed, I think). Lose that, and it’s against the Mariners or Athletics in Detroit on Tues for the right to play in the ALDS.

That’s a pretty messy paragraph, so it would be much preferred that David Price step up and deliver.

David Price has been a front of the rotation pitcher in Detroit, but he hasn’t been an ace. A guy who, on a consistent basis, steps up and stops a losing streak, lets the bullpen rest, and delivers a W. Today is his chance. Last time out Price had a gem working through 8, then was charged with 3 ER in the 9th, and ended up with a no-decision. Note, he’s posting a 1.18 WHIP and .670 OPS against with the Tigers, so some luck has factored into his 3.97 ERA during that time. But Aces make it happen any way they have to.

The Twins send Kyle Gibson to the mound to close out what will be a winning head to head record against the Tigers, no matter what happens today. Gibson is 2-2 against the Tigers this season, but the Tigers have hit him hard, batting .325 with an .826 OPS for a 6.86 ERA. He’s walked 10 Tigers batters in 19 2/3 innings this season, so patience should lead to hittable pitches and walks.

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In case you are wondering, the Royals – White Sox starts an hour after the Tigers game, not that will matter…

As I’m sure you’ve seen by now, spark plug Rajai Davis strained his pelvis in the batters box last night (I know that players adjust themselves a lot, but this seems excessive), and is out for a few days. He claims he’d be ready by Thursday, which is when the division series should start. Carrerra gets the start in CF, which is baffling to me, considering the consistently awful defense we see as a team. Ausmus even mentioned the poor defense in his post game interview last night. Kelly also bats left, is a significantly better fielder than Carrera, and gets on base at a better clip (.333 to .300). I just don’t get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, LF
6. Avila, C
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Romine, SS
9. Carrera, CF

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.161: Twins at Tigers

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89-71, 1 game up, magic number is 2.

Alright everybody, get your game faces on. The playoffs start today. We can’t sit around and wait for the Royals to lose the division. We have to take control ourselves.

The task won’t be easy. Even if the opposing team is 22 games under .500.

Here is the Tigers’ record and runs allowed per game against all MLB playoff qualifiers:

Baltimore – 5-1, 3.33
Kansas City – 13-6. 3.47
Los Angeles A – 3-4, 3.71
Oakland – 5-2, 4.14
Pittsburgh – 2-2, 5.25
Los Angeles D – 3-1, 3.75
San Francisco – 1-2, 4.67
(didn’t play Doug Fister’s Nationals, or the Cardinals this year)

Overall that’s 32-18 with 3.82 RAA per game. And we’re scoring 4.86 runs per game. More than a run per game against playoff teams? That is awesome! (Seriously, I’ve never felt better about the playoffs than I do right now).

But for whatever reason, the 2014 Twins play the Tigers like no one else. Here are the same numbers against the Twins:

Minnesota – 8-9, 6.29 runs allowed per game, 5.65 runs scored.

Look, baseball is a funny game. It’s a long season, and inexplicable trends can emerge, especially against division foes. For some reason, the 2014 Twins have the Tigers’ number, and remain a formidable obstacle in the way of a 4th straight division title.

Kyle Lobstein continues his march towards a full-time starter with his 6th career start tonight. None has been bigger than tonight. Every indication is that he’ll be up to the task, as over his first five he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In 23 2/3 innings at home this year, Lobstein has a .221 BAA, .624 OPS against, and a 1.01 WHIP. He hasn’t yet faced the Twins as a starter, though he has held Twins hitters to a .200 BA and .720 OPS in 25 plate appearances this year.

The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco, who silenced the Tigers two weeks ago with an 8 inning, 5 hit, 0 run gem. Back in June the Tigers hit Nolasco a bit better, chasing him with 9 hits and 3 runs after 5 1/3. For the season, Nolasco has been very hittable – posting a 5.47 ERA and 1.53 ERA. Righties drill him to the tune of .303/.330/.498/.829 and Lefties crush him, posting a slashline of .335/.386/.524/.910. Nolasco is much more comfortable at home (4.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) than away (6.54, 1.75), and the September 16 home start against the Tigers was one of only two starts this year where Nolasco did not allow a run.

The division is right there in front of us. Let’s go get it.

Baseball Reference Game Preview here.

My pre-game player pick for the subsequent game is Ian Kinsler. Talk to you boys tonight.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (5-9, 3 doubles)
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH (4-6, 1 double)
5. J.D. Martinez, LF (3-9)
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1-3, double)
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.159: Twins at Tigers

39 Comments

“Hey man – the playoffs are that way.”

88-70, 1st place, magic number is 3. Playoffs clinched.

Whether Sale will admit it, plunking VMart yesterday ignited this offense, provided some emotion that this team can really build off of, and assured a playoff spot. That said, can we all agree that a wild card slot would be immensely disappointing for this team? It’s a little different now than 2006, because “Wild Card” only guarantees one more game.

So our Tigers end the season with four at home versus the Twins. Probables:

Tonight 7:08 PM: Trevor May v. Max Scherzer

Friday: 7:08 PM: Anthony Swarzak v. Rick Porcello

Saturday: 7:08 PM: Ricky Nolasco v. Kyle Lobstein

Sunday: 1:08 PM: Kyle Gibson v. David Price

There’s a chance the the Tigers could tie for the division with the Royals, then win a one-game division deciding game, and get to skip the one-game wild card play-in game. Or they could tie for the division, then lose the one-game division deciding game, and still get another chance at a one-game playoff. In that scenario, the Tigers would have to lose 5/6 or 6/6 to not be playing in a playoff series next week. Thus, unless the Tigers get swept by the Twins AND the Royals win at least three from the White Sox (in which case we’ll be playing the A’s in the one game wild-card game), the Tigers will either be playing the Royals at Comerica on Monday for the division title, or will win the Central outright. More scenarios from the Freep here. Winning the division means a 5 game set against Baltimore. Losing the division but advancing via the wild card (assuming we get past Oakland) means a 5 game set against the Angels, who seem to average about 10 runs per game against the Tigers.

Beyond the obvious playoff seeding implications, clinching the division also significantly affects personnel headed into the playoffs. It looks like Nathan will be the first, but not only, choice for 9th inning situations, but how will Ausmus use Sanchez and Lobstein in the playoffs? I think that Verlander has earned his way into the rotation (as if he were ever out of it; see Albom’s thoughts here), but we really have no idea where Sanchez is. Sanchez’s ERA rose from 2.33 to 3.46 over his last 10 starts, and in his last 5 he allowed 4, 5, 4, 0, and 3 ER. It would be great to see him get significant innings over the weekend, and feel good about him being a long man in the playoffs. I don’t know if two starts is enough to say that “JV is back!” but it’s better than nothing. If I can be optimistic for a minute here – JV as an ace completely shifts the landscape of the AL playoffs.

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In other news…

– Phil Hughes set the all-time K/BB ratio – 11.63. He walked only 16 in 32 starts this year (209 2/3) innings. Bret Saberhagen posted a rate of 11.0 while with the Mets in 1994. Cliff Lee is third on the all-time list with a 10.28 ratio in 2010, and Jim Whitney holds the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, after historic seasons in 1884 (10.00) and ’83 (9.86). Man, those were the days. Strohs were only 2 pence!

Game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. Torii Hunter, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. J.D. Martinez, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Alex Avila, C
8. Eugenio Suarez, SS
9. Rajai Davis, CF

2014 Season, Postgame

Twins Series Coda

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Tonight’s loss was a nice mix of all of the ingredients which drive us nuts about this team, served together as a big fat loss sundae. Poor pitching from a supposed ace, terrible base running, mediocre fielding, letting a bad team come from behind twice, and the icing on top – an awful bullpen performance.

So obviously, lots to gripe about.

But let’s get a few facts straight regarding the offense so we can make sure that our frustration is accurately placed.

1) Relative to the rest of the league, the Tigers are a tremendous hitting team. The Tigers’ team OPS of .761 trails only Colorado, and Colorado is boosted by an .894 home OPS (you read that right). The next closest AL team is the Blue Jays, with a team OPS of .739.  The Tigers have the third best road OPS in the majors at .742. Yes, OPS is down across the league, but relative to the league, the Tigers are one of the best hitting teams. Just to emphasize this point, the Tigers are second in the majors in runs scored, behind only LAA.

2) The Tigers do not give up on games. The club’s 41 come from behind victories is 2nd in the majors, and the team OPS is .742 when behind, 3rd in the majors.

3) R3L20 – the Tigers are middle of the pack, 11th in the majors, but the team OPS in that situation is .872. Scoring position – .777 OPS, good for 3rd in the majors. No one gets it done every time.

4) In extra innings the team OPS is .827, good for 7th in the majors.

Look, you can play around with the figures yourself. Objectively, it’s hard to complain about this offense. (We’re even middle of the pack in number of pitches taken.) Yes, we’re 2nd in the majors in GIDP, but that’s what happens when you’re on base so much. The reason why this team is mired in a division struggle despite an overwhelming abundance of talent does not rest with the offense.

The starting pitching is bad, and the bullpen is atrocious. The starters’ team ERA is middle of the pack in the AL, but when you consider the names (and salaries) in that rotation, middle of the pack is crippling. And then, for the least surprising stats I’ll post tonight, the bullpen is 3rd from the bottom in the AL in ERA, and dead last in the AL in BAA against and WHIP. I get that bullpens are fleeting and whimsical, and can be trusted as much as a con man, but I do believe that Ausmus has failed to effectively motivate and manage this pen, and this will be impossible to overcome in the coming weeks. Ausmus is somewhat limited by the arms on the roster, but other teams seem to make it work with random AAA call-up guy/free agent. That Jim Johnson is still pitching meaningful innings in the heat of a pennant race is nauseating.

Thus, with an off-day tomorrow, and the anticipation of the biggest series of the season looming over our keyboards tomorrow, I wanted to set the stage for some meaningful discussion. Feel free to challenge me on the offense thoughts above, but I think we’re wasting our time complaining about these hitters.

By the way, if Cabrera goes 4-5 in each of the remaining 10 games, he’ll probably win his 4th straight batting crown.

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.152: Tigers at Twins

29 Comments

84-67, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

KC lost last night to CWS, which allowed the Tigers to keep their slim division lead at 1.5 games despite another 9th inning implosion. The Royals face Chris Sale tonight, which sounds nice on paper. But you never know with #Sep-Tober (no matter how hard I try, this isn’t really becoming a thing, is it?)

There was a lot of discussion on yesterday’s thread about Joe Nathan, and the Tigers bullpen found itself a topic this morning on Buster Olney’s podcast. Rightfully so. Even if Carrera doesn’t misplay the single, it’s still a single. More frighteningly, Nathan has made walking batters a fad now, having issued 12 walks in his last 16 innings. It’s simply inexcusable.

Let me highlight the concern. In the past three years, the Tigers have played in 35 postseason games. Of those 35 games, 15 have been decided by 1 run, and 26 out of 35 (nearly 75%) have been decided by 3 runs or fewer. There’s not enough time for Nathan to “work it out.” The auditions have to start now.

The Tigers wrap-up the series with Minnesota tonight before their final off-day of the regular season tomorrow. Then it’s 6 at KC & CWS, follows by 4 at home versus these same Twins to end the season.

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In other news, Peter Gammons reported today that the Tigers (along with the Phillies, Padres, Giants, and Rangers) are among the favorites to sign 23 year old Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas. The reported price tag is $100M.

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David Price is 3-3 with the Tigers. He has 2 or 3 starts left.

Drew Smyly is 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA and .755 WHIP for Tampa Bay. Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz?

We need Price to be an ace from here on out. #DoItForTheRotation

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Nick Castellanos
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. CF Rajai Davis

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.151: Tigers at Twins

59 Comments

Scherzer went from Marvelous Max to Maddening Max in the span of a few batters last night, and a rare BB BB start by Joba Chamberlain opened the door for those pesky Twins to tie the game, 6-6, in the bottom of the 8th. Phil Coke did okay, but the savior last night was Kyle Ryan, who came in and immediately induced an inning ending double play.

Three pitches and two bombs later, the Tigers were up 8-6. Soria closed the door, partially b/c Nathan needed a rest, partially b/c the closer’s role is up for grabs (I think).

Castellanos is a late scratch – foul ball off of the foot during BP. Kelly was already slated to start in CF, he slides to left and Rajai enters in the lineup at 9.

1. 2B Ian Kinsler
2. RF Torii Hunter
3. 1B Miguel Cabrera
4. DH Victor Martinez
5. LF J.D. Martinez
6. 3B Don Kelly
7. C Bryan Holaday
8. SS Andrew Romine
9. C Rajai Davis