All posts by Kevin in Dallas

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.70: Tigers at Indians

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Yesterday’s win was a lot like getting a Valentine’s card from the cute girl in 4th grade. It’s awesome for a minute, then you realize that eventually, everyone gets one.

For whatever reason, the local press still continues to paint a rosy picture on the state of the team. Bob Wojnowski wrote today that the Tigers “dodged a complete disaster” yesterday by taking one from the Royals.  Hold on a sec Bob, we need to get on the same page here. Losing 3/4 to anyone at home in the midst of a .333 month is a complete disaster. It doesn’t mean that the team can’t get on the right track, but losing 8 games in the standings in June spells death for a lot of less talented teams. The Tigers fate hangs in the summer.

I will admit that some tough questions are finally being raised. The Freep published a comment by Jayson Stark which suggests that Verlander’s consistent high pitch counts have caught up to him. Would he be more effective in the bullpen? How long is long enough to make such a determination. Probably not 8 starts, but 20 – 30? A whole season? I fear this will be an ongoing conversation.

Also, is Alex Avila tipping pitches? He says no, but what else is he going to say? Seems like this would be an easy theory to prove.

Unfortunately, you can’t read anything Tigers right now without mention of Ausmus’ ill-fated comments. Perhaps Ausmus-gate 2014 can serve as a welcome distraction to the losing that has been going on for a month.

Porcello v. Kluber tonight.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Jackson, CF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, LF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Kelly, RF (Hunter supposedly back on Sunday)
8. Holaday, C
9. Suarez, SS

 

2014 Season, Postgame

Game 2012.65 Postgame: Tigers 4, Twins 3

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A series win is a series win. Player of the game should be Oswaldo Arcia.

Porcello was dominant for most of the afternoon, and note that all three 6th inning runs were scored with two outs. Having him go 7 after using up every clown in the car last night was huge. Joba and Nathan didn’t go quietly, but they escaped. Regarding Nathan – I’d like to point out a) his ERA was 6.66 right before he got that final out, and b) his WHIP is going to go up after that 9th inning. I think there is still has a lot of slack on that leash. Let’s hope that he can get going.

– A day after going 9-19 with RISP, the Tigers were 2-14 today.

– Austin Jackson is batting .116/.224/.140/.364 OPS with RISP. He’s batting .285/.377/.434/.811 in all other situations.

– 4 straight quality starts by Tigers starters. Verlander goes tomorrow.

– KC is about to win their 7th in a row. Four game set starts tomorrow (includes a makeup game on Thurs).

 

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.65: Twins at Tigers

35 Comments

Happy Father’s Day Friends! I’m going to spend my day relaxing outside, reading, and cursing the Tigers.

This Tigers tailspin has been going on for nearly a month now. Miraculously, the Tigers have remained in first place during this 8-17 run, but the Royals are hot on our trail, only 1 1/2 games out after their sixth consecutive win yesterday. In fact, the entire division is in the hunt. The Tigers had a larger lead on the division a month ago (7 games) than they do on last place right now (4.5 games).

Like any fanatic, I work hard to make sure that I’m correctly placing my blame, as it somehow makes me feel a little better to be mad at the right people. So, using the incredible tools available at Baseball-Reference.com, I pulled some very basic team and player stats. You can click on the hyperlinked words below for more info.

Games 1-39: 27 wins, 12 losses.

Batting: .278 BA, .757 OPS, 4.8 runs per game

Pitching: Team ERA 3.13

Games 40-64: 8 wins, 17 losses.

Batting: .266 BA, .764 OPS, 4.0 runs per game

Pitching: Team ERA 5.39.

Hitting has been pretty consistent. We’re scoring a little less, which is probably due to some mixture of luck and situational hitting. The Tigers have slipped to middle of the pack with runners in scoring position. But I expect that number to come back up, and the runs per game to climb back towards 5.

Fielding is much harder to split-out like this, but I’ve heard Dan Dickerson say over and over what we’ve gone from top of the AL to bottom four over the past month, so that’s a part of the problem. I think we all see that on a daily basis.

But the pitching has been horrendous, and really, nearly the entire pitching staff is to blame. Take a look at this.

Excel Pitchers 6-15-14

Of the regular guys on the staff, 8 of them have been awful over the past month. Maybe we can exclude Smyly from that label, but everyone else save Sanchez, Chamberlain, and Alburquerque should have to come and mow our lawns for what they’ve put us through. The Tigers pitching staff has been handing out hits and walks like they’re flyers on the Vegas Strip. Not surprisingly, the team ERA for June is worst in the AL, and the team WHIP is second worst.

I expect Scherzer and Verlander to be much better. We’ve already seen it from Scherzer. But Nathan, Reed, Krol, and Coke are legitimate issues, and I fear that no lead will be safe until a couple of moves are made. Hanrahan still isn’t pitching live BP, and Toledo isn’t much help. Dombrowski – work your magic.

Tigers have a shot at a rare series victory today, which is sorely needed for a dozen or so reasons.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, LF
6. Jackson, CF
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Avila, C
9. Suarez, SS

 

2014 Season, Postgame

Game 2014.64 Postgame: Tigers 12, Twins 9

7 Comments

That was about as un-fun as a 19 hit, 12 run attack can be.

In the 3rd inning, down 5-1, Deduno got a line out and a K to get to 2 outs with the bases clear. He then gave up a single to Castellanos and walked Avila, and Gardenhire came out to get him. This was an interesting move considering how early it was in the game, and that there were two outs already. I think that Gardenhire pulled him for two reasons – 1) Gardenhire knew that 5 runs was very doable against this Tigers pitching staff (even with Sanchez going b/c eventually the bullpen has to pitch) and 2) That Gardenhire could care less about conventional wisdom. Though the move didn’t pay off for the Twins, I like that Gardenhire is making moves to influence the game. Ausmus has been relying too much on his players as of late. I’ll freely admit that the Tigers have significantly more talent than the Twins, so trusting the Tigers’ players makes sense, but we’ve been in a rut for a month now and Ausmus could do more to make his presence felt.

Suarez was awesome. A single away from a cycle, and he continues to play strong defense. Caution the exuberance though, as he’s never finished a minor league season with a combined OPS greater than .802. But even a .700 OPS will be a marked improvement over what we’ve been getting at the SS position.

Everyone had two hits except for Jackson (1) and Avila (0).

Torii Hunter misplayed another ball in RF. Not that this is news to anyone, but Hunter is the worst defensive right fielder in the majors. It’s not even close.

Fangraphs Def RFers 6-14-14

And finally, the bullpen. Six earned runs in 2 2/3. That’s hard to do. Seriously, try it. Collectively, the bullpen faced 19 batters, allowed 11 of them to reach and over half of them to make three left turns. Coke had a relatively productive outing, allowing only 3 hits and 3 earned runs in his one inning spanning the 7th and 8th. He gets paid to do that.

9-19 RISP.

It’s a win, but I have grave concerns about what’s to come tomorrow.

 

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.63: Twins 2, Tigers 0

47 Comments

34-28, 1st place, 2.5 games up, 3-7 last 10, 1-0 last 1.

Tigers return home from a quick rain shortened three game set in Chicago to face the Twinkies for three.

I’ll be honest. Last night’s Scherzer shutout wasn’t as enjoyable as it should have been, mostly because we still need 10 more of those in a row to get back to where we were mid-May. Couple that with my new Pavlovian response to “closer situation”, and I could barely listen to good ol’ Dan D. But the Tigers win as they are inclined to do every third day, and hope re-springs.

Smyly v. Kyle Gibson tonight

Sanchez v. Deduno tomorrow at 4:08

Porcello v. Nolasco Sunday at 1:08

Bryan Holaday has been doing everything right as of late – hitting, calling good games, not throwing the ball into left field, but unfortunately he bats right handed, so we may not see him until Monday. I know that it’s easy to point heavy blame at Ausmus right now, so I’ll go ahead and do it. Where is the creativity and reason? Where’s the fire? Where’s the rational thinking? Yes, we’re running more, but that’s b/c we have those assets now. I’m still seeing rather traditional managing – not what I was expecting.

Tonight’s [insert name here]’s Due Lineup:

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Jackson, CF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Martinez, RF
6. Kelly, LF
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Avila, C
9. Romine, SS

Site News

DTW Site Update

9 Comments

Hello All –

Hopefully by now you’ve notice the new site format. If not, uh, perhaps you should see someone about that.

We’re getting close to finished, but over the next few days you’ll see some of the modules moved around to more familiar areas. For instance, we’re going to swap “archives” and “latest comments.” Moreover, we’ll add some content to the right hand side of the individual game posts. We’ll also look to tighten up the spacing and fix the RSS feed.

If you haven’t noticed, one of the best features is that the site auto-formats based on your screen size. So it should sill look good on a mobile device or tablet.

Here’s how you can help:

1) Let us know what else you’d like to see. Word press has dozens, if not hundreds of plug-ins, so let us know if you’ve seen or used some elsewhere that would be helpful here.

2) Can you confirm whether you can edit your own comments? Smoking Look said he could, but that may be due to his heightened access level.

3) I’d like to update the “Detroit Tigers Payroll” link. It’s a Google Doc, and if someone can update it, we’ll get the updated link working.

4) We’re going to ask for donations to cover the site upgrade costs. None of us make any money on this thing, and I think that billfer makes just enough to cover hosting costs. I think that if every regular reader were to donate $10 – $20, we’ll have no problem paying for the upgrades. I’ll have more on this in the coming days.

The more interaction, the better, so let us know.

2014 Season, Pitching, Players

The Joe Nathan thread

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I figure we can keep the thread going in one place. Plus, I wanted to break up the images on the home page a bit.

So you know – as of 6-9 (didn’t pitch tonight), his FIP is 4.96, and his xFIP is 4.29. BABIP of .313 (though is FB velocity is down nearly 1 MPH to 91.4 which explains this in part).

Not what we need, but he’s had some bad luck as of late.

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.53: Tigers at Mariners

48 Comments

Sometimes the other pitcher is just better. You gotta tip your cap to Chris Young. Lots of fly balls, but lots of weak fly balls and pop-ups. The Mariners eeked out two runs on a bloop, a hope, and a prayer, and we just gotta understand that this will happen over a long season.

This good pitching thing shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, as pitchers are dominating like no other time in recent history. SI had a great article about this a few weeks ago – but here’s a brief AL historical comparison using SO/9 and FIP ERA.

1984: 5.01/4.02

1994: 6.1/4.74

2004: 6.4/4.53

2014: 7.6/3.87

That is a tremendous jump in K/9 as strikeouts are up over 50% in 30 years. I’d have to go back and look, but sub 4 ERAs league wide is definitely a new phenomenon.

Now let’s look at hitting – I’ll use OPS.

1984: .724

1994: .779

2004: .771

2014: .715

As you can see, 2014 is likely going to set a recent historic low for hitting in the AL. The same is true in the NL. SI credited this to the rise of the power pitcher, bullpen specialization, and a slightly larger strike zone.

I don’t mind the pitching dominance, but let’s keep this in mind as the Tigers get bettered by average pitching from time to time.

Also, you may like this recent article by Tom Verducci talking about the ever slowing pace of play, with ideas on how to fix it.

On to today’s game – Mad Max climbs the hill for a 4:10 eastern start against Roenis Elias. Scherzer has been bombed his last two starts out, though he managed to avoid a decision in either game. I’m looking forward to a typical Scherzer dominating performance and a comfortable series win headed into an off day. I mean, we’re not going to go two weeks without winning a series, right?

Traveling later today, please post the lineup when avail.

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.52: Tigers 2, Mariners 3

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31-20, 1st place, 6 games up.

Two things caught my eye this morning as I read the papers (well, through the internet, on my cell phone).

1) VMart may have had one of the best at bats of his career yesterday. It looked good watching it, but think about this. He gets up 2-0, then watches 2 called strikes go by. He follows by fouling off 5 straight pitches, before ripping the 10th into the RF stands. Considering it effectively put the game away off of a Cy Young candidate (against all teams, not just the Tigers), it really was an incredible at bat.

2) Ausmus said after the game that Verlander’s velocity was up from the start of the game. I didn’t remember that, so I went back and checked. It was. 95 in the first inning, and he touched 98 in the 6th. This is HUGE. Really happy about that.

Tonight’s if it ain’t broke don’t change it series winning? lineup.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Jackson, CF
6. Avila, C
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Romine, SS
9. Davis, LF

I’ll be checking in late. Talk to you guys then.

2014 Season, Game Post

Game 2014.51: Tigers 6, Mariners 3

29 Comments

Hello win my old friend. I’ve come to talk with you again. Don’t ever disappear like that on us again. Ever.

Quick standings update:

Det  30-20   —
Chi  28-27   4.5
KC 25-28     6.5
Min 24-27   6.5
Cle   24-30   8.0

Well, the Tigers took 2 out of the last 3 from Oakland, and were perhaps a Castellanos catch away from taking the series. Considering how we had been playing, and the circumstances (best team in the AL on the road), I was very pleased with our last 3 games. That said, you have to wonder about Joe Nathan. Nathan is on pace for the worst year of his career; because even if he pitches perfectly from here on out, he’s already surpassed his 2013 HR allowed and blown save totals. Let that soak in.

Justin Verlander climbs the hill tonight. Rumor is that he used to be a dominating ace, though this last few starts have looked more like Dontrelle Willis than even a middle of the rotation pitcher. If he allows less than 8 baserunners tonight, that will be the first time he’s done that since his second start of the season. EIGHT. Let that soak in.

The Tigers face Hisashi Iwakuma tonight. Cano is out with an illness.

1. Kinsler, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Jackson, CF
6. Avila, C
7. Castellanos, 3B
8. Romine, SS
9. Davis, LF (guess he’s not injured anymore.

Postgame:

That was about as clean as a win as you could ask for, unless, of course, you have JV on your weak hitting fantasy baseball team (it’s a sim league). In which case there is a huge difference between 2 and 3 earned runs. And that 3rd earned run is a tough one to swallow, resulting from Krol’s wild pitch and then a double off of Krol. I don’t know what it is, but 8 IP and 2 ER allowed seems like a dominating performance. 7 2/3 and 3 ER allowed, meh. Verlander did allow only 7 baserunners (there was one HBP), which resulted in his second game of the season with a WHIP less than 1.