84-62, 1st place, magic # goes to 11. (Basically a lock based on the squiggly lines here.)

Well friends, just a few weeks after the Tigers found themselves atop the AL (at 24 above .500), the Tigers may now find themselves without home field advantage unless they make the World Series. The BoSox have been on a tear over the past three weeks and are now 30 games above .500, 4 games ahead of Detroit, and the A’s have surged to 25 games over.

But the schedule is in our favor. Of all teams in the AL, only CLE has a weaker remaining schedule (I’d love to see them sneak in to a WC spot). Let’s break it down, again.

– 3 v KC at home. This is the only series against a team over .500, with something to play for.

– 4 v. Sea at home.

– 3 v. CWS at home.

Then we end with two 3 game road trips separated by an off-day on the 26th, @Min and @ Fla.

That’s 16 games against teams who are a combined 94 games under. At a minimum this should be a 10-6 swing, if not 11-5. But even at 11-5, I don’t think that 28 games over (95 wins) gets us guaranteed home field. I do think that 12-4 gives us a shot, though the Red Sox remaining SoS (51%) isn’t too bad either.

The Tigers are 0-5 in JV starts vs. KC this year. It hasn’t all been JV’s fault. Though he hasn’t been much of an ace this year either. It’s not going to be easy against the best staff in the AL, and especially against Bruce Chen who has been lights out for KC since he came out of the pen mid-season. Now, the Tigers did get to Chen for 6 earned in 5 1/3 in his first start against Detroit this year. Chen since rebounded as he was dominant last Sunday when the Tigers packed up their bats for the weekend after a 16 run explosion on Friday night. I expect a low scoring game tonight. Limiting walks will be the difference between a 4-3 victor and a 5-4 defeat.

A few notes:

– David Paulino is the PTBNL for Veras.

– This is the last home stand of the season. Division series tix go on sale on Tuesday.

– Despite Boston’s record, Bovada has the Tigers as the favorites to win the Pennant at 9:4 (Bos is 5:2).

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Infante, 2B
8. Avila, C
9. Iglesias, SS

81-58, 1st place, when do magic numbers become a thing?

I’m up against the clock today, friends, so just a quick intro to get the discussion going.

You don’t see too many 0-4 nights for Cabrera, makes me wonder if he was really okay. He’s out again today, and now I really wish that he had sat yesterday.

Jason Beck did a whole post on yesterday’s Pena out at the plate; gist of it is that Leyland blindly supports his coaches, even when his coaches admit that they are wrong. We’ve discussed this before. This looks bad from the outside, but it’s part of the reason why players and staff are so unwavering in their admiration for Leyland. And he’s winning, so I’m okay with it.

Today’s Can We Win a Playoff Game Without Miggy* Lineup Is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Fielder, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Dirks, LF
6. Kelly, 3B
7. Infante, 2B
8. Avila, C
9. Iglesias, SS

*Tigers are 10-2 without Miggy this year

81-57, 1st place, by a lot.

No wonder the Boston faithful gave Jose Iglesias a standing O yesterday afternoon. Besides his double, he was the cornerstone in 3 double plays yesterday, the last of which demonstrated his ridiculous athleticism and baseball IQ. First of all, he pretty easily got to a ball well to the right of 2B. He then managed to contort his body and tag a passing runner near 2B with this glove hand, only to pull the ball out of this glove and make an accurate and timely throw to 1B, while moving in the wrong direction, to double up Pedroia.

If you’re John Farrell, how depressing is it to get beat so cleanly by Detroit yesterday, then look at today’s match-up and see Scherzer staring back at you. Mad Max threw 7 innings of 2 run ball versus the Bo Sox back on June 22. A win today would put him alongside the Rocket as the only players to start 20-1, and make him the only one who did it without artificial aid.

As good as Jon Lester is, he gets drilled by Detroit. Current Tigers hitters have combined for a career .413 average and 1.081 OPS in 124 plate appearances, and he has a 5.26 career ERA in six starts against Detroit.

A few notes:

– Did anyone else think that Napoli’s attempted take-out slide on Iglesias was far beyond the context of acceptable? Considering the Infante injury, I’d love to see someone address this on the mound, at the plate, or behind the podium.

– I’m wondering if yesterday’s victory bought Miggy another day off. If we win today, I’d be shocked to see him in the lineup tomorrow with a scheduled off-day on Thursday.

– ALDS starts October 4th. MLB said it first, not me.

– If the Pirates win today, this will guarantee their first .500 season in 21 years.

– Prediction: Miggy hits a bomb today and wins the Triple Crown (at the end of the season).

Today’s Blackline Lineup (yes, those are real stats):

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF (10-19)
3. Cabrera, 3B (10-16)
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH (6-10)
6. Infante, 2B
7. Tuiasosopa, LF
8. Pena, C (6-14)
9. Iglesias, SS

80-57, 1st place, 7.5 games up.

Happy Labor Day Everybody! Hope your weekend has been as enjoyable as mine. We’re BBQing with friends today; they are slated to come over after the Tigers game ends. So there’s about a 50% chance that I’ll be in a really crappy mood when they get here.

Well, the Tigers/Indians series has come to a merciful end for the Indians, with the Tigers eeking out a 15-4 series win. Last night would have been the cream on the brulee, but you can’t win them all. And it sure looked like the Tigers might get a chance to make something happen in the 9th. That’s what good teams do.

Anyway, before we place all the blame on Benoit, the Tigers were 1-7, 0 RBI, with RISP. Is there any team that scores less from 2B than the Tigers? Can someone look that up?

As for JV – after a long first inning which had all of us reaching for the Tums (2 BB, 35 pitches), JV righted the ship and went on to pitch 7 brilliant innings of 4 hit 2 BB ball. In fact, over the final 6 innings he only allowed 4 hits on 81 pitches while striking out 5. He’s still got a long ways to go to reestablish himself as the ace of this staff, but yesterday couldn’t have gone much better for him.

There were a few rumblings regarding Benoit on the old DTW yesterday afternoon, and I’m here to say that I think those criticisms were awash in emotion and passion, but little cause for real concern. Last night was Benoit’s first loss of the season, and he’s still a perfect 17 for 17 in save situations this year. In light of the fleeting nature of the closer position, I’m incredibly pleased with where the Tigers sit.

On to the next series.

The Tigers head to Boston for a 3 game set before a much anticipated off-day on Thursday. Boston is currently 1.5 games ahead of Detroit and the only other team in the AL with 80 wins. This series will play an important role in determining home field advantage for the playoffs.

Fister and Lester matched up back on June 21st in Detroit. It wasn’t pretty for either. Fister was drilled by Boston to the tune of 11 H and 6 ER in 3 1/3; while Lester gave up 5 ER on 9 hits in 5 2/3, but it was enough for the win.

On paper, other than David Ortiz, the Red Sox lineup looks to be pretty ho-hum. But they can all hit a bit and is as a team, the Red Sox have the second best offense in the Majors behind Detroit. In fact, Detroit (.793) and Boston (.784) enjoy handsome team OPS leads over the next highest – Bal at .752.

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A few notes:

– The Tigers are now 3 games under .500 in games that JV starts.

– Has anyone else wondered just exactly what Nelson Cruz was on during his Reggie Jackson performance in the 2011 ALCS?

– Mike Aviles’ pre-swing routine makes me want to bean him from my couch.

– Dotel has been shelved for the season.

Cabrera is out of the lineup again today, and it’s not even clear if he’s avail to pinch hit. Though DD said that he expects Cabrera to return at some point in time this series. Rain in the forecast, but likely not until later today. We should be good for the 1:35 PM start.

Today’s All Out Of Sorts Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Fielder, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Dirks, LF
6. Infante, 2B
7. Kelly, 3B
8. Avila, C
9. Iglesias, SS

76-53, 1st place, 6 games up.

Three stars from last night –

1) Scherzer. He joins Rube Marquard (1912 New York Giants) and Roger Clemens (2001 Yankees) as the only pitchers to start 19-1.
2) Dirks – 3-3, 1 R.
3) Bullpen – 3 IP, 0 H, 1 K, 0 BB.

Three goats –

1) Brookens with an awfully late change from run to stop on Pena after the Scherzer double. Pena looked ridiculous trying to read Brookens.
2) Brookens sending Infante on the Fielder hit.
3) Brookens trying to send Cabrera on the ensuing Tui hit, which Cabrera correctly ignored.

I love going into Sunday’s game with the series in hand, as a sweep will be a tall task today. There aren’t many pitchers on a better roll than today’s Mets starter Dillon Gee. Over his last 10, Gee is 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA. He’s averaging nearly 7 innings per start and a 1.11 WHIP. (Actually, there is at least 1 pitcher who has been better over his last 10, but I don’t think it’s fair to compare normal humans to Scherzer).

Porcello looks to get the Ricky P train back on tracks after it was derailed last time out against Minnesota, when he gave up 5 ER in 4 1/3. Prior to that Porcello had won 5 decisions in a row. A win today would be his 10th, joining every other Tigers starter at the 10 win plateau. Our rotation is just flat out sick.

Tigers head home after the game today for 7 v. the A’s and Indians.

A few notes:

– Casper Wells gave up 5 ER in 2/3 of an inning last night after he was called in to pitch in the 18th…all 5 of those ER came with 2 outs.

– Every division leader in the Majors is within 2 games of each other (21 games over to 25 games over).

– Has anyone else noticed that TB has caught the Red Sox? And that after the Rangers were 6 games behind Oak a few weeks ago, they are now 2.5 games up (was 3.5 yesterday)?

I’ll get the lineups out in a bit.

75-53, 1st place, 6 games up on Cle.

Solid win last night.

Hunter and Cabrera put the Tigers up early, and Fister pitched well enough over 6 1/3 innings of 1 run ball for the W. Martinez looked good behind the plate and I like that he was spelled by Pena late in the game.

Bruce Rondon closed out the 9th nicely, allowing 1 hit and striking 1 one in the 9th. He’s been doing a lot of this lately. Here are his numbers over his late 10 games: 11 2/3 IP, 11 Ks, 3 BB, and a .94 WHIP. On the season his ERA is down to 3.65 and he’s nearly as effective against Lefties (.257 BAA) as he is against righties (.246 BAA). Eight of his last 10 appearances have been for at least an inning, and 3 of those have been for longer. Salty.

Today’s matchup pits Scherzer against All Start starter Matt Harvey, on the same mound, no less. How weird is this? It’s the first time the All-Star Game starters have met at any point during that same regular season (I borrowed that from the Elias Sports Bureau). A little more – the only two times the All-Star starters pitched against each other in the same season came in the World Series, according to Elias: Dwight Gooden vs. Roger Clemens in 1986, and Red Ruffing vs. Paul Derringer in 1939. This will certainly be the last Harvey Scherzer match-up of the season.

Should be the game of the week on Fox.

Today’s Hunter/Martinez/Iglesias Less Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Tuiasosopa, RF
6. Dirks, LF
7. Pena, C
8. Santiago, SS
9. Scherzer, P

74-53, 1st place, 5 games up.

“WAR – What is it good for?”

Well, evaluating players, for one thing. Or so we think.

As we all know, the WAR debate dominated the MVP race last year, with Cabrera and his old school hitting stats (summarized as “the best right handed hitter in our generation”) beat out the sabre-favorite Mike Trout and his 1st to 3rd ability and low GIDP. So where are we in 2013? Well, even with the historical season that Cabrera is having this year, Mike Trout is dominating him in WAR.

That’s an average of 1 additional win. Worth about $4-5M in salary in the theoretical FA market where WAR sets salaries.

But anyway, Joe Posnanski posted a great blog about the Trout/Cabrera debate and seems to reluctantly admit that Trout is a better player because of his overall skill in spite of Cabrera’s prodigious numbers. (Though did you know that Mike Trout is a below average center fielder this year?) It’s a good read, and I would encourage you to read the comments as well. One of the commentors noted that Cabrera is better than Trout in the Smoking Loon threesome of RE24, WPA and RBI%.

I used to like WAR because it was new and complicated and I wanted to be cool. Now that I’m a dad with two kids, a mortgage, car payments, and Dora the Explorer placemats, I know I’ not cool, and I’m much more concerned about being right. And WAR is a good tool, but it’s not everything. And I’m starting to understand that the guys who live and die by WAR are greatly uninformed.

There is no doubt that Trout is a better WAR player. But WAR just happens to be a shiny tool in a chest full of dozens of useful ones used to measure the value of a baseball player.

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On to the Mets. The Mets are the Mets. 3rd place in the NL East this year, and they actually have a worse record at home (26-33) then they do on the road (32-34). The Tigers have struggled on the road (33-30), so this could be interesting. Tonight the Boys draw new Met Dice-K.  So, if like me, you’ve been wondering where he went, the answer is “NY Mets.”

Lineups coming later today.

69-49, 1st place, 6 games up.

On paper, everything looks good. Danks is 0-4 with a 9.79 ERA over his last 5 starts against the Tigers. Porcello is 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last 6 starts, including 2-0, 1.74, against CWS. But you gotta play the game.

2:10 start today. Pena gets a rest, Holaday in.

Short and sweet for the W.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Tuiasosopo, LF
7. Infante, 2B
8. Iglesias, SS
9. Holaday, C

69-48, 1st place, 7 games up.

Baseball is a long season. There are many, many ups and downs. Rare is the season like the one the Tigers had in 2011 when they didn’t lose more the 2 games in a row all season (am I remembering right? something like that).

Anyway, we’re gonna lose a few more series from here on out, we’re gonna struggle with RISP in isolated instances, and we’re gonna have a few more losses against some bad teams like we did last night. Chris Sale was good last night, he beat us. Time to move on.

In case you missed Iglesias’ highlight reel play last night: http://www.freep.com/article/20130812/SPORTS02/308120159/detroit-tigers-jose-iglesias-video. Yes, he’s all ours. Until 2019, at least. Though he did sign with Scott Boras last week, so expect the extension talks to start soon.

Last time the Tigers saw Hector Santiago (all the way back to last week), he struck out Miguel Cabrera the first three times Miggy faced him. Santiago looked sharp through 7 and then came out for the 8th. We all thought that Santiago would be on a short leash, but after two outs, Santiago had earned the right to stay in the game even after a Torii Hunter blooper. Miguel Cabrera punished the next, and last, pitch of the evening for Santiago, and Cabrera has hit a home run in every game since that one. I’m excited to see watch this matchup tonight.

A few notes:

– MLB.tv game of the night tonight – free for you non-subscribers.

– Is it time to call up Castellanos? The LF platoon has become the latest whipping boy. Personally, I’d leave Castellanos in Toledo for the rest of the year.

Today’s Gotta Win to Take the Series Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Tuiasosopo, LF
7. Infante, 2B
8. Pena, C
9. Iglesias, SS

69-47, 1st place, 7 games up. Yes, 7.

Well, all good things must come to an end, and my 3 week old son has now witnessed his first series defeat of his young life. He was hysterical about it, btw.

But, as many said in yesterday’s thread, if there’s a good loss, this series was one of them. Two late inning rallies to tie the game off of the greatest closer of all time, and a solid drubbing in between. The runners left on was a little silly (26 total in the 2 losses), but that’s going to happen from time to time when you get on base a lot. The Tigers lead the majors with a team OBP of .347. (Since I already know the follow-up, here it is – .842 – OPS with RISP, good for 2nd in the majors; oh, and 2 outs – .788, 2nd again. So let’s table any of that talk until it’s convenient again).

You know, JV wasn’t all that bad yesterday. He pulled it together after a rough start and gave the Tigers a fighter’s chance. Which they took advantage of. Kind of. But I was very encouraged by JV’s 5th, 6th and 7th yesterday. That’s the JV of old. I think that we impart a super-hero invincibility on him, but he’s just another guy. Who makes $20M a year and dates Kate Upton. In all seriousness, I can’t help but wonder how much his struggles this year have worn on his psyche and caused him to question things that had become instinct to him. So I think there’s a lot of good that can come out of yesterday’s effort.

How about those Miggy bombs? Remember when Magglio won the batting title in 2007? I remember Jim Price mentioning on the air that he asked Magglio if the ball was “slow” during a hot hitting streak. Maggs replied “yes, and big too.” I’m certain that’s what Cabrera is seeing right now. He’s a monster among men.

So now we start a 3 game set against the White Sox which should draw several hundred south-siders over the next few nights. Here are your matchups:

Monday: Fister v. Sale

Tuesday: Scherzer v. Santiago (Hector, not Ramon)

Wednesday: Porcello v. Danks

The matchups don’t exactly lineup to what we saw last week because, well, the White Sox need rest and all that.

Lineups and more thoughts coming tomorrow.

63-45, 1st place, 3 games up on Cle.

Jhonny Peralta has nerves of steel. Over his last ten games he’s hitting .351 with 3 HR and 8 RBIs. I don’t know how he’s not vomiting every time up the plate with what he’s facing on Monday. This reminds me of that time my boss called me into his office during a summer internship. Had he seen the email? Or had he not?. Rumors were that he had, but that was last week. Why the wait? Maybe he just wanted to discuss the project I was working on.

Turns out he had seen the email. Anyway, Peralta has proven to quite a few people that he can be a tremendous hitter, without PEDs (I think) and rejoining the roster will be a good problem to have if we stay the course into the playoffs.

As dominating as Scherzer has been all season, these past two games arguably have been his best stretch all season. 13 2/3, 3 H, 0 ER, 13 Ks, and 3 BBs. His 16-1 start is the best start in the majors since the Rocket in 2001.

Porcello gets the ball this afternoon after earning pitcher of the month honors for July, when he was 4-1 with a 2.53 ERA. Tigers starting pitchers have turned in 14 QS out of their last 17 starts. Off of the top of my head, 2 of those non-QS were JV.

Miggy who? The Tigers are now 7-1 without Cabrera in the starting lineup. They’ll try again today. Benoit is unavailable, look for Smyly or Veras to pitch i the 9th if necessary. Also, Downs down to Toledo.

Today’s Eat ‘Em Up Tigers and Homestand Sweeping Injury Filling Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. Kelly, RF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Iglesias, 3B
9. Santiago, 2B

62-45, 1st place, 3 games up on Cle.

I’m going to make the bold claim that my son, and PHToy in HKs child, are the most spoiled Tigers fans out there. The Tigers are 10-2 in my little guy’s lifetime, and to be honest, he slept through most of those losses.

And he’s also very curious as to who this “Miguel Cabrera” guy is that we won’t stop talking about. Miggy is not in tonight’s lineup, and his day-to-day injury has become week to week. Had he sat out of the 1.5 games he played in last weekend, he’d be nearly done with a 15 day DL stint. Even with the two off days this week his abdominal strain isn’t fully healed. (Wasn’t it his hamstring before? Are we getting good information here?)

With the 1 day off in August gauntlet that began last night, this is beginning to be troubling. Though I’d rather sit him for a few weeks now to be ready for late Sept/Oct. Meanwhile Chris Davis has taken this opportunity to overtake the RBI lead, and increase his HR lead to 8, and presumably, jump ahead in the MVP race.

The Tigers look to continue their winning ways against the White Sox, losers of 8 in a row. CWS is only a few games ahead of the Astros for rights to next year’s top amateur.

Can we take a second to appreciate stand up and applaud Joaquin Benoit? Here are his stats since he was handed the closer role in early June (I’m using June 9th, correct me if I”m wrong): 18 IP, 1 ER, 23 Ks, 5 BB. That’s an ERA of .50, a WHIP of .78, and a K/BB of 4.6. That’s domination. If he’s just remotely this good the rest of the year, then he’ll be the best closer we could possibly have.

Today’s Let’s Eat ‘Em Up Tigers Again Lineup (with #s off of Danks):

1. Austin Jackson, CF (12-29, 3 HR)
2. Torii Hunter, RF (12-37, 2 HR)
3. Matt Tuiasosopo, LF (1-8)
4. Prince Fielder, 1B (5-7, HR)
5. Victor Martinez, DH (7-35, 3 HR)
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS (10-46, HR, 11 Ks)
7. Jose Iglesias, 3B
8. Brayan Pena, C (2-9)
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B (0-2)