61-45, 1st place, 2 games up on Cle.

What a week of baseball this has been.

1. Our Tigers have been red hot as of late, winning 9/10 and 5 in a row, and have lost ground on the 2nd place White Sox and 3rd place KC Royals. I’d say that the AL Central is En Fuego but the Indians and Royals have been beating up on the White Sox and Twins.

2. Then we have the quietest trade deadline of all time. What, Bud Norris didn’t do it for you? What we haven’t really discussed much on here is that Dave Dombrowski has established himself as a trade deadline wizard. Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Jose Veras and Jose Iglesias. The Doug Fister trade is a verified W. (That’s 2 links). Jacob Turner still has a lot of upside (he’s been great this yea – 2.4 WAR), but Sanchez and Infante are posting a combined 5.8 WAR this year. And Keith Law calls Iglesisas one of the best two fielding shortstops in baseball…”The Tigers should just bat him ninth — not second, please, Jim, for the love of all things holy — and let him be Death To Ground Balls for the next five years.” I’m going to let that sink in for a minute.

For as much grief as we give DD regarding 4th OFers, backup IFers and bullpen depth, let’s give him the praise he deserves for his mid-season deals. The Tigers have been as active and as successful as a franchise can be over the last 2.5 years. It’s going to pay off. Soon.

3. Now that my royal baby watch is over, all of my attention has been turned to the latest ridiculous gossip covering spoiled royalty – the Biogenesis suspensions. I still believe that this will be Peralta’s last regular season weekend as a Tiger, but the ARod stuff is fascinating. First of all, the guy’s own GM seems to be pretty close to Tonya Harding’ing him just to keep him on IR, and now ARod is planning on fighting any suspension. I pretty distinctly remember Pete Rose’s last days (I’ll never forget that SI cover), and I feel that even he left with more dignity than ARod is/will. It was also curious to see Jon Daniels make a move for Garza, but not one for an OFer.

A few notes:

– Ryan Raburn.

– Bob Tewksbury is walking Fangraphs readers through his personal notes from the 1992 season. It’s fascinating.

– You know, I don’t subscribe to SI anymore, but every time I pick one up, I read it cover to cover. Such a great magazine.

– Cabby sitting again, presumably to get Iglesias more ABs. Nothing new on Infante.

Tonight’s Eat ‘Em Up Tigers Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopo, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Iglesias, 3B
8. Pena, C
9. Santiago, 2B

56-44, 1st place, 3.5 games up.

The Tigers again took advantage of the hapless White Sox and cruised to a 6-2 victory. Cruised may not even be descriptive enough. After the fourth batter the game was never in doubt, and other than a really bad outing by Rondon and some bullpen chaos, there was little cause for concern for the Tigers’ faithful. The Phil Coke 1 batter experiment really backfired last night (5 pitches, 2 strikes, 1 hit, no outs), and I have to think that his trade value has plummeted to a handful of ham sandwiches. Oh, and Leyland is not happy with Putkonen/Coke right now.

Justin Verlander pitches this afternoon. That’s all I have to say about that.

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A few notes:

– Infante went 1-3 for the White Caps last night. Perez is a capable fill-in and I look forward to seeing him full-time in a few years. But I’m ready for Infante to come back.

– A guy over at ESPN suggests that Castellanos should be the guy to fill the LF hole (you’ll need insider).

– Great article on Fangraphs yesterday about Torii Hunter embracing the #2 spot and a corner OF position.

– I really like the idea of MLB skills competition during the AS game festivities.

– As william pointed out yesterday, we still have 12 games against the White Sox after today.

I’m looking forward to a nice afternoon game. I’ll hold my calls, have lunch at my desk, and chat with Dan and Jim for a few hours.

Lineup to come.

55-44, 1st place, 3.5 games up on Cle (11 games over .500!)

Miggy who? The Tigers (who will be Miggy-less again tonight) put up a 3 spot in the 4th and 6th inning last night to cruise to a 6-2 victory over the White Sox. That is now 3 in a row and a win tonight will lock-up a series win prior to tomorrow’s JV afternoon outing (I’m already nervous).

The hot talk these days surrounds the bullpen, and whether the Tigers will make a deadline deal. Luke Gregorson of the Padres seems to be top of their list. With the emergence of Benoit as the closer, I don’t think the Tigers are looking for a closer as much as they are just help. Apparently the Braves were/are looking at Phil Coke. I’m not sure why. Are LOOGYs that valuable?

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A few notes:

– Jair Jurrjens is back in the organization. The guy was really good for Atlanta for a few years there. He never really recovered from a knee injury in 2011. The kid is still only 27. I like the low risk signing.

– Fox Sports Detroit (I get that channel!) will air batting practice for both the Tigers and Phillies on Saturday beginning around 4:30 PM local time.

– Tigers have the best fans in all of baseball. No other team in MLB has more local TV sets tuned in on their team than the Tigers.

Tonight’s Series Clinching Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopa, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, 3B
8. Perez, 2B
9. Avila, C

54-44, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

The Tigers are 10 games over for the 7th time this season. They are 0-6 in their previous 6 cracks at 11 over. 7th time’s a charm.

Tonight’s Cabrera Off for a Few Days Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Tuiasosopo, LF
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Kelly, 3B
9. Perez, 2B

53-44, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Good win last night to cap off a terrible series. I’m still frustrated about JV’s start. I have JV in my Scoresheet league. Here’s my typical  reaction rajectory during a JV start.

1st inning: “That’s okay, just a hit, guess we won’t get a no hitter tonight.”

Later in the 1st inning: “Oh well, just a run, he’ll still lower his ERA a good chunk tonight.”

3rd inning: “Okay, it’s a few runs, but as long as he doesn’t give up more than 3, the Tigers can still comfortably win the game.”

4th inning: “Ahhhh, heck, this will definitely be a fantasy loss with my weak hitting scoresheet team.”

4th inning: “Goodness, his ERA is going to blow up.”

5th inning: “I hate baseball.”

But let’s not overlook the great start by Fister last night, and the shut down 7-8-9 bullpen. I was surprised to see Smyly/Rondon 7-8, but I think that was a situational thing.

The combined pitching line for the five relievers who pitched in the KC series – 7.1IP 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 7SO. Salty.

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Anyway, I’ve been meaning to write about the bunt for a while. More often than not these little research jaunts are a way for me to prove a barroom opinion that I was willing to lay down my life for a few nights back. Oftentimes, I end up scrapping the blog post because the research demands that I restate my opinion, or act as if it never happened.

Unfortunately, that’s not the case here.

Before we get started, we need to understand “Run Expectancy.”  Run Expectancy is the number of a runs a team can expect to score given a certain state of affairs. If you Google it you’ll see a bevy of examples. I’m using the 2013 #s over from Baseball Prospectus, but note that the RE is almost the exact same regardless of year (recent year) provided you have a large enough sample size. For starters, here is the difference between a runner on 1st with no outs, and a runner on 2nd with 1 out.

Simply, you shouldn’t bunt, unless you like scoring 25% less runs.

Now let’s take a look at a specific Tigers’ instance.

On Saturday night, the Tigers got the first two men on base in the top of the 8^th. Austin Jackson stepped up with the Tigers down one. Leyland put on the bunt sign.

Here is an abbrievated Run Expectancy (“RE”) matrix for this particular situation.

As you can see from the chart above, the Tigers would be expected to score more runs in the current state of affairs, rather than moving the runners over and sacrificing an out. (For those of you who haven’t spent a lot of time in sabermetrics, outs are to baseball what hearts are to Link in Zelda. Outs are your life force. You should do everything you can to conserve them. You can read about this all over the place. Let me know if you want some good sources.

But to put it bluntly, you do not want to give up outs.

Now, despite calling for a bunt when he shouldn’t have, Leyland was granted a reprieve. The count went to 3-1. 3-1! A great hitters count! This year, on a 3-1 count, Jackson’s OPS is 1.762. After a 3-1 count, his OPS is 1.469. Take off the bunt! I was screaming into my At Bat app, at the hospital, quietly. Take off the bunt!

No matter.

In the end, Jackson did bunt, successfully. But the Tigers failed to score in a 2&3 1 out situation. And they lost the game.

All of that said, I must note that the chances of scoring a run are better in the runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (~69%) vs. 1st and 2nd with 0 out (~64%). But that is just 1 run. Considering our late inning woes, Leyland should have played for a multi-run inning with a rally opportunity; rather than giving away an out.

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A few notes:

– VMart is hitting .391 with a 1.029 OPS in July. His average is up to .263.

– AJax is 9-53 wit 21 Ks in his past 13. He’s struck out at least once in every game this month.

– Infante is not expected to play in the White Sox series.

Tonight’s Series Opening Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Perez, 2B

50-40, 1st place, 3.5 games up.

Last night’s win was about as ho-hum as an 8 -5 win gets. Porcello got the W by pitching well enough. Cabrera, Fielder and VMart each collected 3 hits, but only 1 XBH (a fielder HR) among them. And I gotta say, it’s a little disappointing when Cabrera only gets 1 RBI. Smyly was incredible and Benoit avoided trouble after 2 walks for his 8th save (is that in 8 chances?). Rondon makes me believe that we’ll have a new closer in here in the next 20 days.

This afternoon the Tigers face Chris Sale, who has established himself as one of the best lefties in the AL. His 5-8 record is purely a reflection of a complete lack of run support, as his stats paint him as one of the elite in the AL. Check this out (AL Rank in parenthesis):

ERA: 2.78 (4th)
WHIP: .96 (2nd)
BAA: .202 (3rd)
K/9: 9.77 (3rd)
brWAR: 4.5 (1st)

13 of his 16 starts have been quality, and he’s lost 4 games when he allowed 2 or less ER over 7+ innings. Thus, we need Sanchez to be sharp today.

Look, friends. We have to win this afternoon. You shouldn’t lose series at home, especially against the White Sox. The Rangers are coming into town tomorrow, so we’ll have our work cut out for us leading up to the AS break.

Today’s Series Winning Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo. LF
8. Pena, C
9. Perez, 2B

49-40, 1st place, 2.5 games up.

Last night’s game left me with little motivation to write up anything today.

All I know is that we need to win to have a shot at winning the series.

Lineup coming later.

49-39, 1st place, 3.5 games up on Cle.

The Tigers head home for 6 against the White Sox and Rangers after a successful 7-4 road trip that ended with the club taking 3 of 4 from Cle. The White Sox are not good. We gotta win the series.

A few stars from last night’s game, other than VMart.

1) Brayan Pena. Pena made one of the smartest plays you’ll see all season. In case you missed it, Swisher hit a nubber down the 3rd place line to lead off the 8th. He watched it roll foul, assumed that was it, and turned towards the dugout to get ready for the next pitch. Pena watched it like a hawk and snatched it up when it rolled back fair, and then raced over to tag a bewildered, and embarrassed, Nick Swisher.

2) Drew Smyly. Wow. Other than Miguel Cabrera, has anyone been more valuable than Drew Smyly this season? He entered in the 9th after Rondon gave up a leadoff single. A Pena passed ball put a runner on 2nd with no outs. That’s a run expectancy of 1.06. Smyly then gets a fly out, a K, and a fly out. A well deserved W. On the season – batters are hitting .198 off of him, and he’s posting a 2.04 ERA and .98 WHIP.

3) The late inning walk. Seems like we are constantly burned by them; well, VMart made two count in the top of the 10th.

A few notes:

– Victor Martinez’s last 10 games: .390/.538/.928. No home runs, but I can live with the double brothers hitting 5 and 6 in this lineup.

– Prince Fielder’s splits: .314/.398/.520 ** .243/.346/.431. Man, lefties are killing him…except that those splits are the other way. His OPS v. lefties is .918, and it’s .777 v. righties. I’m expecting a monster 2nd half from him.

– Infante to the DL, retroactive to the 4th. I wonder if Colby Rasmus will send a card. 22 year old prospect Hernan Perez up and in the lineup.

– Are the Tigers eyeing someone from the Brewers’ bullpen?

– Could Miggy be joining Prince in the HR derby?

Tonight’s Series Opening Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopoa, LF
8. Perez, 2B
9. Avila, C

43-36, 1st place, 1 game up on Cle…

Well, last night was incredibly disappointing, and the Rondon outing led to an outcry of criticism regarding Leyland’s bullpen management.  Hop over here if you want to discuss.

Even more concerning that the bullpen issue is Justin Verlander. Yes, he went 8 and allowed only 2 ER, but he allowed 9 hits and 4 walks. That’s a 1.625 WHIP. With only 4 Ks. Not a good outing. As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, I couldn’t find league-wide count specific data, so I decided to list the same counts, with JV’s OPS+ against:

For whatever reason, JV gets hammered on 1-1 and 2-1 pitches. Note, even when the next pitch isn’t put into play, the OPS+ against for all events after 1-1 is 137, and after 2-1 is 147. He’s having a lot of difficulty when he gets behind in counts. Let me rephrase that, because I’m certain that every pitcher has a lot of difficulty after they get behind in counts. JV is having an unreasonable, and unusual, amount of trouble once he’s behind in the count.

The Tigers have baseball ops guys who I’m sure have all of these stats, plus some, so JV knows or will know all of these things. Curious to see when he gets it worked out.

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Porcello gets the call in today’s rubber match. The last two times out have been pretty bad for the kid, but we’ve seen stretches of good stuff from Porcello. And those stretches seem to be getting longer and longer.

He’ll be opposing Jeremy Hellickson, who would be 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA in June if you remove an 8 earned in 5 2/3 inning outing vs. the Royals in the middle there. On the season Hellickson is getting a lot of run support. Despite a 5.11 ERA he’s 6-3.  He doesn’t strike out many (6.74/9), and gives up nearly 1 HR per start. He’s given up 10 to lefties already this year. In 16 starts this year he’s given up 5 or more ER 6 times. He’s got 6 quality starts, 3 of those in his last 4 outings.

Also, let’s not forget the Rodney – Cabrera subplot which came to the forefront during post game interviews. In case you missed it, Cabby took a shot at Rodney by shooting an imaginary arrow into the rafters after the win on Friday night. Rodney responded by buzzing Cabby last night. Cabrera struck out on the next pitch. Leyland wasn’t too pleased, though I’m not sure if we can coin Leyland’s response as a “threat”. Considering the thin ice that is the bullpen these days, I’d prefer to focus on winning the game without getting anyone ejected. The best way to show-up Rodney and TB would be to win a series on their home field.

We gotta win series.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Infante, 2B
8. Santiago, SS
9. Holaday, C

43-35, 1st place, 2 games ahead of Cle (did you see their sweep over Chi yesterday? 46 total runs between the teams. Check out these box scores).

Now, that was a fun game. Miggy went 4-4 with 2 no-doubters, and Prince hit a rafter. He would have hit it out of the stadium had it been hit in a stadium. According to the ESPN, Fielder’s homerun was estimated at 414 feet, which is a bit embarassing matched up against Miggy’s second at 432 feet. It sure looked like Fielder’s ball would have gone much, much further hat it not been impeded by the rafter. We’ll never know.

And then there’s Mad Max Scherzer. Max is now the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to start a season 12-0. He very may well be starting the All Star game in two weeks. Though I’m going to get very queasy when they put up a graphic titled “Last Tiger to Start the All-Star Game…”

Justin Verlander throws today. Well, hopefully, he’ll be pitching today. He’s definitely lost his paintbrush as of late, and it’s cause for concern. Earlier this month, I posted that JV’s peripherals suggested that he’s been unlucky, but otherwise pitching near career norms. Since then he’s had 1 brilliant game (which was lost by Toledo’s current closer) and 2 awful ones. Over his last 9 games Just-another-guy Verlander is 3-3, with a 6.04 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 3.90 BB/9. All of those are simply awful (though curiously, he’s still posting an extremely impressive K rate – 10.65 K/9). We’ve discussed the foul ball issue on here and I started looking for foul ball stats. I couldn’t find any (if you can find them, please let me know and I’ll take a look), so then I started looking for reasons why (a) his BABIP against is so high and (b) he’s getting a lot of foul balls. My feeble baseball mind suggested less movement on his pitches and poor counts. Let’s take a closer look.

Look at this chart which reflects what happens on balls in play on certain counts.

I omitted 1-0 and 2-0 because there were so few balls in play.

Obviously, 1-1 and 2-1 count events are astonishing. I know that I’m presenting this without league or team averages, so it makes it difficult to really draw any conclusions, but the numbers speak for themselves. (I ran out of time and plan to do that part tonight or early tomorrow – so stay tuned).

Now, JV throws his fastball more than anything else. His fastball contact rate this season is 86%, versus 81.2% for 2012, and 83.6% for his career. His fastball swinging strike rate is 7.1% in 2013, down from 9.9% in 2012 and 8.3% for his career. Those are significant changes.

So his fastball is either slower, or not moving. Or, gasp, both. Well, his average fastball this year is 93.6 MPH, compared to 94.7 last year and 94.8 for his career. And, using PitchFX data, we can conclude that it’s not moving as much in 2013. I believe that this partially explains why the BABIP against and foul ball numbers are so high.

Thus, we’re left with “what does this mean?” Far from my area of expertise, but I would guess that it’s something mechanical, or mental, considering his age. But a full season of this and the high innings over the past three years are going to get heavier and heavier.

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Tonight’s Potential Series Clinching Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. The Man, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, RF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C