All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Game 2013.78: Tigers at Rays

42-35, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Being in first place is tough. Everyone is gunning for you. Even the LAA Angels, who now own an 8 game winning streak over our boys. I know, it sounds crazy. Just one of those quirky baseball streaks. Like Phil Coke losing 5 games in a row. Hilarious.

There’s a lot not to like about the Angels series and yesterday’s game in particular, but we’ve all read it and lamented to our uninterested wives (well, at least my wife isn’t too interested in why Coke was left in to face 2 righties, who as a group have a .900 OPS against him), so let’s move on.

We’re still in first place, no one else in the division is getting any better, and we’ve got a lot of time to figure out (trade for) a bullpen. Let’s enjoy a good baseball weekend.

Help is on the way. Or more precisely, Bruce Rondon should be in the bullpen tonight (Reed down). He will not be the closer . ! I don’t have high expectations for him in the short-term, as I don’t think the he’s seasoned enough for the bigs. On the flip side, this could be the shot in the arm that the bullpen needs to feel less annoyed, man. I think it’s a great, low-risk, move.

If you want to drink beers with Jose Valverde, I think this is your chance. You’ll just have to do it in Toledo (wait until next Wednesday).

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

Game 2013.70: Orioles at Tigers

blah. That’s my response to last night’s game. So blah that we’ll skip the regular format, and get a new fresh post up ASAP.

Yes, JV looks off, but as I discussed before, he’s actually been pretty good. Well, last night was bad, but I’m not worried.

I have faith in Ricky P to pitch us to victory. Four straight quality starts with a 1.33 ERA and .70 (not a typo) WHIP during that time. Orioles have a strong lineup, but Porcello has been pitching well.

Series winning lineup coming soon…

Game 2013.69: Orioles at Tigers

39-29, 1st place, 5 games up on Kansas City who is 8-2 over their last 10 and has passed Cle to move into 2nd.

Good solid win yesterday. Scherzer was good, but not great, on his way to his ML leading 10th win. I don’t think anyone would argue with me on that. Thank about that for a second, the guy Ks 10 and allows 1 run over 6 innings, and it’s only a “good” outing for him. He was incredible in jams, as the one hit the Orioles got with a RISP off of him only advanced a runner to third. A high K rate will strand a lot of runners. Scherzer would be the best pitcher on a number of staffs around the Majors.

The offense pounded out 14 hits, though only 2 of them were XBH, including the Miggy HR and another two-bagger for Johnny Doubles.

JV climbs the hill tonight looking for his 10th win. Wait, he only has 8 wins? He didn’t get a win last time out? It’s okay, I expect he’ll be at 10 in 6 days. JV is 8-0 vs. the O’s with a 2.93 ERA.

Thanks to an injury to Jason Hammel, the Tigers face Zach Britton tonight. Britton is a struggling lefty who was in the majors for all of 2011, then roughly 1/2 of 2012, and will be making his second start in 2013. His career WHIP is 1.49, his career ERA is 4.85, and he has a career K rate of just 6.19. The Tigers should have their chances early and often tonight.

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Saw some good stuff on the web today, so an expanded few notes:

– My brother gives pretty good gifts, but Justin Verlander gives better ones.

According to Fangraphs, the Tigers 2013 WAR projects to be the third best of all time. Yes, your 2013 Tigers are being mentioned in the same breath as the ’27 and ’39 Yankees. Even more interesting is the current Tigers WAR rankings: Cabrera (4), Sanchez (3.4), Verlander (3.0), Scherzer (3.0) and Fister (2.7).  I really liked this quote:

“The rotation is obscene. Dave wrote about this at the end of May. With Rick Porcello suddenly striking batters out, all five of the starters would be top starters on other teams, and Drew Smyly isn’t bad as insurance. Cabrera, in his prime, is one of the best hitters ever, and Prince Fielder is obviously dangerous, and look at those performances from Avila and Martinez. Avila stands to improve, and so does Martinez, and if they don’t, the Tigers could make roster upgrades as they think about the playoffs. Nick Castellanos appears to have figured out Triple-A, clearing the way for him to figure out the majors, and that’s good young support.”

– With Jose Alvarez filling in on Thurs for Sanchez, who gets sent down? Likely to be an outfielder, says James Schmehl of MLive. Also note Schmehl’s distaste for the bunt and his reasoning why (3rd question down).

– I think that it’s safe to say that Valverde has officially lost the everyday closer role. Though my guess is that he’ll still get first shot in a close game.

Mike Heath is old enough to be a grandfather?

Tonight’s Series Clinching Lineup (remember, we gotta win series):

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

Game 2013.68: Orioles at Tigers

38-29, 1st place, 4.5 games up. Which is the 2nd biggest division lead in the majors.

The Tigers took care of business in Minnesota taking the three game series with the win yesterday. Good teams have to win series against no so good teams. So good job, boys.

A much more formidable opponent rolls into the D tonight, a place that has been very difficult for opposing teams this year. The Tigers are an AL high 12 games over at Comerica this year (22-10), mostly thanks to a prolific home offense which was mentioned in Coleman’s opener yesterday. Here are some selected home stats with their ML ranks in parenthesis:

– Avg. .302 (1)
– OBP. .370 (1)
– Slg. .455 (3rd)

But again (I think I brought this up a few weeks ago) the home XBHs aren’t there – as they are 17th, 16th, and 16th, in 2B, 3B, and HR, respectively. This is easy to pinpoint by looking at home/away splits for individual hitters. Cabby and Fielder are both mashing home and away, but Peralta (128 points), Infante  (239), Avila (145) and Martinez (86) all are experiencing significant dropoffs in slugging away from Comerica. I guess the other way of looking at this is that Peralta, Infante hit at all-star levels at home! And Martinez and Avila hit at near league average levels!

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The Orioles come into town at 40-30 after having taken 2/3 at home against the 1st place Red Sox. The Orioles lead the majors with 15 series wins in 2013. Jake Arrieta gets the start in place of Jason Hammel, who is getting an extra day to recover from illness. Arrieta lost his starting job back in April after posting a 6.63 ERA and failing to reach the 6th inning in 4 starts. This will be his first major league appearance since then.

Mad Max Scherzer could set Tigers history tonight…no Tigers starter has ever started a season 10-0. Over his last 5 starts, Max has a microscopic .69 WHIP, a 2.00 ERA, and 38 ks in 36 innings. He was given a no decision against the Orioles when they walked off with a bomb off of Valverde. Max hasn’t forgotten I’m sure.

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The big news of the day is that Anibal Sanchez (strained right shoulder) and Alex Avila (deep contusion on his left forearm) were put on the 15-day DL today; though I don’t think this comes as a surprise to anyone.

Here’s your it happens other places too note for the date: Ron Washington told reporters yesterday that even “Detroit lost 7/8 at one point in time this season”.  Panic is sweeping the Metroplex regarding the Rangers.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

 

Game 2012.61: Indians at Tigers

34-26, 4.5 games up on Cle.

(never mind the bad digital editing in the image above)

Another good win for the Tigers yesterday afternoon, another poor showing for Valverde. Fielder’s bases clearing double put the Tigers in the lead for good, and Ricky P turned in his 3 straight quality start (and 7th in 10 games) to bring his ERA below 9. He’s a fantastic #5 guy.

Remember all that bad luck I talked about that JV is getting? Well Valverde’s getting all of the good luck. His BABIP against this year is .179 and his FIP is 5.62, yet his ERA is only 4.02. Over his last 5 appearances, Valverde has allowed 9 hits and 1 walk in 4 2/3. That’s a 2.14 WHIP. His (mild success) is a fluke and unless he starts throwing his splitter more often, I don’t see anyway for him to remain the closer for much longer.

Today’s replacement starter is Jose Alvarez. To me, bringing up Alvarez instead of using Smyly (who is well rested), signals to me that Smyly is in the long-term plans for the Tigers. If they were hoping to flip him for a reliever, he’d be auditioning today. My guess is still that Porcello will be dealt for a reliever and a prospect in the near future. We can win the Central with Valverde, but we can’t win the AL with him as our closer.

Alvarez is a 24 year old lefty who has been phenomenal so far this year at Toledo.He currnetly leads the International League with 76 strikeouts and ranks second with a 2.42 ERA. Alvarez was signed to a minor league contract last November after 3 years in the Red Sox farm system. He took steps backwards at ages 22 and 23, which is why Boston let him go. He doesn’t have much time to figure it out, but he’s making strides.

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A few notes:

– Walk Miguel Cabrera and get burned. Following Cabrera’s last 15 walks, Fielder is 9-14 with a BB and 13 RBI.

– Great article on Grantland today about Chris Davis and the adjustments he’s made. Chris Davis is fascinating to me stemming from his time in Texas, but he looks to be Miggy’s early season MVP co-candidate.

Today’s Series Sweeping Sunday Lineup.

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Kelly, CF
7. Avila, A
8. Santiago, SS
9. Infante, 2B

Game 2012.60: Indians at Tigers

33-26, 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of Cle.

Good win last night, great effort by everyone except for Jose Valverde. He was flat out awful. I am certain that he won’t be closing games much longer. I can’t help but wonder if Valverde is the cause for the Verlander/Leyland miff from last night. (Miff seems appropriate, as i don’t think it qualifies as an imbroglio). In case you missed it, Verlander whimsically sought to avoid the Leyland “good game, you’re done” shake after a 7 pitch 7th last night (and rightfully so). Leyland didn’t find it to be very funny. I wouldn’t generally classify Leyland as having a “sense of humor”, but Verlander’s smirk let the whole world know what he was thinking. But I think that Leyland’s reaction after the game may have been caused by Valverde’s home run derby tryout. Here’s what I’m thinking:

The Tigers have a comfortable lead, at home, against the division rival, for now. A 4 run lead with your ace on the mound and at a reasonable pitch count is no time to think about your closer. But because of Valverde’s struggles, Leyland has to get him some easy work. So he makes the decision to go Benoit/Valverde to make it look like it was his plan to do a standard 8 – 9 routine. Then Valverde comes in and gets lit up like the 4th of July, so JL is in no mood to discuss JV (or get second guessed on anything). Thus his response.

DD – the clock is ticking.

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A few quick notes.

– Tigers are 20-10 at home this year, 13-16 on the road.

– Tigers starts have posted a quality start in 13 of the team’s last 14 starts, and their ERA is 2.58 during that stretch.

– Anibal Sanchez scratched for tomorrow, Jose Alvarez up. More on him tomorrow.

I’m looking for VMart to keep up his hot bat, as he’s a career .500 hitter off of Carrasco (tiny print – that’s 1-2). To follow-up on yesterday’s JV post, that could have very easily been a 1 ER game. We’re seeing Hunter’s range diminish by the game. Still a very valuable player, but that’s just aging.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, 2B

 

Game 2013.59: Indians at Tigers

32-26, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Well, the Tigers are a frustrating 4-6 over their last 10, including 3 games where they failed to score a run in the first 9 innings of the game, but yet they managed to pick up a game on the struggling Tribe, losers of four straight. In fact, as stephen likes to allude to from time to time, the Central is so bad that the Tigers .400 winning percentage over the last 10 games is good for 2nd best in the division. CWS may be the worst team in the AL here soon, they are certainly playing like it these days.

Nice series against Tampa Bay, who had a better record than us coming into the series. We’ve got to win series at home.

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JV climbs the hill tonight for the Tigers, so this gives us an opportunity to examine his recent starts to see if we can identify some causes for his struggles. Thank you Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for the research tools.

Over his last 5 starts, JV is averaging 5 1/3 IPs, 7.4 hits, 7.4 Ks, 2.2 walks, and 4.4 ER per game. That translates into a 7.42 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9. Concerning right?

Maybe not.

– Obviously, the ERA is egregious, and it could be explained by the outrageous 2 2/3 8 ER outing versus Texas. If we remove that game, however, his ERA over the other 4 is still a seemingly unacceptable 5.25. But if we look at his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), things come into focus a bit more. With the Texas game, his FIP over the last 5 is 3.59, which is a little above average.  If we remove the Texas game, his FIP over the other four games is 2.98, which is fantastic. As a barometer – his career FIP is 3.37; in 2011 in was 2.99, and last year it was 2.94. This year it’s still at 2.60 for the whole season. Salty. More on this in a bit.

– The 1.79 WHIP is, in my mind, even uglier than the ERA. But there’s an easy explanation. The BABIP against JV over the last 5 games is an unbelievable (and unsustainable) .446. This is for a pitcher with a career BABIP of .287. This can be partially explained by the Tigers’ general lack of infield (and recently outfield) range, but it’s also a function of good luck on the part of the opposing batters. If you took at look at BABIP on a game by game basis, 4 of his worst 5 games this season come from the last 5 games. (Note that game by game basis is not really helpful b/c of the small sample size, but looking at these last 5 games against his 12 starts this year does, in my mind, support the bad luck theory.)

– Finally, his K rate of 12.5 over his last 5 games is significantly better than his career rate of 8.53, and in fact, his 10.73 K/9 this year would be the best in his career. Yes, he’s walking a few more this year than usual (2.96 in 2013 v. 2.73 career), but it’s not a huge variance.

So, all in all, despite what has been an awful stretch by his standards, JV is arguably pitching better now that his career norm. It’s been some bad bloops and bad ballparks that have caused the spike in traditional pitching metrics. (Progressive, Oriole, & Rangers ballparks are all top 10 in HR this year). Now, FIP attempts to remove many elements of luck, and rewards Ks and low BB rates, which is why JV’s FIP over the last 5 is so different from this actual ERA. But high Ks and low BBs is a very good thing. And this is strong evidence that we should not be worried one bit about Verlander. (Well, I’ll admit that his 1 mph less FB velocity is intriguing, but I’ll save that for later).

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Tonight’s starter, Ubaldo Jimenez is, not very good anymore. In his last 10 starts he’s registered only 4 of the quality kind, including 1 ER over 6 IPs at Comerica on May 11th. His last outing was his best of the season, when he held Tampa Bay to just 4 hits and 1 BB over 8 innings. But on the season he’s posting a 4.83 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 1.26 WHIP. He strikes out lot of batters, his 9.05 K/9 this season is the best of his career, but he also averages 4+ walks per nine (2013 and career).  Cabby (.972 career OPS), Fielder (.814), VMart (1.002), and Peralta (1.094) all rake v. Ubaldo. So on screens, things look very promising for tonight’s match-up. But we’ve read that before.

I don’t really see Cleveland as a threat or contender, but a good three game set by them in Detroit coming off of a bad spell could give them a needless boost. I’d like to see JV put any worries about his recent performance to bed, and put us in a take 1/2 position over the weekend to take the series. It should happen.

Someone please post the lineups later today, as I’ve got a drinking event this afternoon.

Game 2013.52: Tigers at Pirates

29-22, 1st place, 1.5 games up on Cle.

Last night’s game was playing out rather nicely until Sanchez took a sharp detour in the 7th that resulted in a 4 run frame for the Pirates, and a 5-3 loss for the Tigers. The Tigers now find themselves in peril of the dreaded 1-3 series, or a mini-sweep, depending on how you look at it.

Fister looks to right the ship tonight for the Tigers, and himself. Since beginning the season 4-0, he’s 1-2 in this last 5 starts (the Tigers are 2-3) with a 5.20 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He’s only walking 1.46 /9, so that’s a lot of base hits (and hit batters).

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A few notes:

– Despite the two game skid, the Tigers are second best among all MLB teams in interleague play since 2006, with an 85-49 record.

– Hunter is out of the lineup, which will give him 3 days off for his swollen left elbow. Remember that he’s headed to my neck of the woods for his son’s HS graduation this weekend.

– Some fun with Miggy: Cabrera is tied for the major league lead in hits with 77, and leads the majors in RBI with 59 and average at .368. His 59 RBI are the most by a Tiger since 1916 (that’s as far back as we can remember; he’s tied with Hank Greenberg). Miggy has 11 HR and 31 RBI…in May. Big Cec had 11 HR in May of 1995.  The 31 RBI in a May are the most since D _ _ _ _ _       _ _ S _ _ _ had 34 in May of 1998.

–  Three game set at Baltimore starting tomorrow.

Tonight’s Where’s Austin? Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Dirks, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Tuiasosopo, LF
7. Pena, C
8. Garcia, CF
9. Fister, P

 

Game 2013.51: Tigers at Pirates

29-21, 1st place, 2.5 games up.

What a game last night. Hate to lose a close one at home, but props to Pittsburgh.

Grilli was even better than advertised. We always knew that he could throw heat, but that slider was nasty. Cabbie just looked silly, and I still have no idea what Prince was swinging at. I think Cabby is just in a little lull. He can’t dominate for 162, I’m not worried about it.

On a tight schedule today, I’ll have more fun stuff tomorrow.

Let’s go Tigers.

Tonight’s No DH Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Avila, C
7. Infante, 2B
8. Kelly, CF
9. Sanchez, P

Game 2013.50: Pirates at Tigers

29-20, 1st place, 2.5 games up.

Great team win last night. JV was good, not great, and the bats put up enough runs to cover up some poor 8th inning pitching and fielding. Valverde came in and gave up his usual baserunner (who somehow didn’t steal 2nd base – worst advance scouting of all time?), before striking out Andrew McCutchen to end the game. Valverde’s .75 ERA is as misleading as an online dating photo, and last night was a great example of this. Two 3 ball counts in 4 batters, and out of 15 pitches, 14 were fastballs between 90 and 93 mph. No one has done more with less since David Hasselhoff did anything.

That’s 7 wins out of 8 in case you lost track. For all of the shortfalls we tend to notice around here, we owe it to the boys to celebrate a job well done.

Let’s go Tigers.

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Let’s talk for a minute about Alex Avila. I know that everyone is frustrated with his performance (or lack thereof), and many are clamoring for Pena to be the starter. Over the last ten games, Avila is batting .121; Pena is batting .405. Avila is hitting .171 for the year, and Pena’s average now stands at .313. A few thoughts on this.

1) I don’t know that we have a starter right now. They split starts in the Cle and Min series, and Pena played last night. Yes, some of this is match-ups, but the fact that JL is playing match-ups at catcher says something.

2) Avila isn’t going to hit .171 all year. His BABIP is .221. This is significantly lower than the ~.290 that you see around MLB, and much lower than his career .315 BABIP. So his average will come up. But there is reason to worry. One reason why he has a healthier career BABIP than most is because of his power. But that may have gone away. In 2013 he’s hitting more ground balls than ever before (1.60 GB/FB v. 1.20 career average) and his LD rate of 18.8% is the lowest since his first partial season in 2009 (21.6% career). Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he usually does.  This is further evidenced by his low ISO (.114) and manifests itself as a lack of XBH. Pena has 1 less XBH (6 to 5) in roughly 1/2 the ABs.

3) Avila has lost his place discipline. He’s not walking very often (9.5% vs. 12.6% career) and he’s striking out more (31.4% vs. 24% career).

4) Other than Porcello, I don’t know how much direction our staff really needs. So any advantage that Avila may provide in that respect, is likely negligible.

5) Nothing in Pena’s history would lead us to believe that his 2013 start is sustainable, and he’s likely too old (31) to have a breakout year.

Thus, in conclusion, I’m not sure what’s wrong with Avila. Either he’s injured, or his swing has changed. But I also don’t think that Pena is the long term solution. So I’d look for a continuation of a liberal platoon, with Avila getting slightly better over time. I used to have hopes that Avila could be a perennial all-star. With his sweet swing and good eye, he seemed to have the right tools. But the peripherals this year point in the wrong direction. Remember – he’s only 26, so he’s got some time. But not much.

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Game two of the home set against the Bucs tonight before the Tigers head to Pittsburgh for another two. If you could only focus on Porcello’s last 5 starts, you’d see a serviceable 2-0 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 3 QS. Excellent numbers for a #5 starter. Now, for the year, he’s posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .299 BAA, which are more inline with the #5 guy in Toledo.

Jeanmar Gomez has been very good this year – 2-2, 2.75 ERA, but not so good against the Tigers in his career – 2-2, 7.82 ERA.

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A few notes:

– Cubs pitchers are slugging .667 in May with 6 doubles, 3 HR and 15 RBI.

– Lots of rain forecast for tonight. May be tough to get this one in.

– AJax is eligible to come off of the DL today; but no word on when he’ll start a rehab assignment.

Tonight’s Series Sweeping Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, CF

Game 2013.49: Pirates at Tigers

28-20, 1st place, 1.5 games ahead of Cle.

Happy Memorial Day everyone. Thank you Jim Eggers, judpma and any and all vets, active military, those who sacrificed their lives for this great country (baseball and all) and all military family.

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Well, now that the Indians are playing, like, well, the Indians, order has been restored in the Central. For now. (RR watch – 0-3 in his one start v. Boston).

The  Tigers took care of business against Minnesota, with Scherzer capping off the series clinching win by allowing 1 ER over 6 innings for his 7th win this year against 0 losses. Covering his last two games Scherzer, set down 25 batters without allowing a base runner, and 38 batters without allowing a hit. (That’s likely enough batters to cover a no-hitter, unless Dontrelle Willis is pitching.) Avisail’s clutch (can we use that word?) pinch-hit 3 run triple put the game out of reach for the hapless Twins, and the bullpen came in and shut down a Twins team who looked like they had their bags packed early. The final was a 6-1 victory and 3-1 series win.

Today’s early start kicks off an unusual day-night two game set, oddly followed by a two game set against the same team. Interleague.

The Pirates starter is some guy named…Francisco Liriano? FRANCISCO LIRIANO? Where the H did he come from? After 7 years with the Twinkies (he was pretty good pre-Tommy John surgery, remember?), he was flipped to CWS for the stretch last year where he managed a 3-2 record in spite of a 1.52 WHIP. Pittsburgh rewarded him with a two year deal last December, and he celebrated by breaking his arm over Christmas while “closing a door.” Well, not sure if he was “celebrating” but this sounds an awful like “moving boxes” over the off-season. And Zumaya never came back from that one… Anyway, Liriano’s now made 3 starts for the Pirates, and they’ve been pretty good: 3-0 covering 18 IPs. In 2013 he’s posting a 1.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and has punched out 25 in those 18 IPs. Liriano was always a K machine – 9.13 career K/9, but it’s his slider now that’s his go to instead of his fastball. Lefties have yet to get a hit off of him in 14 PAs in 2013, and he’s holding righties to a .250 BA.

Here are some not so fun facts about Justin Verlander. He hasn’t reached the 6th inning since May 5th. This is the first 3 game stretch that the hasn’t reached the 6th since…September of 2006. You remember 2006, right?  Tough year…Pluto lost its planethood, Steve Erwin died, JV was 23…  This month he’s got a scary 7.32 ERA and opponents are batting .296 off of him. But, Verlander is 19-2 with a 2.64 ERA vs. the NL in his career, and 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA over the last two season. I’m betting on JV. Things are turning around today.

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A few notes:

– Check out these fascinating Fangraphs articles on Cabrera. The gist of it is that he’s a badass, but you definitely want to read them. I didn’t notice this live, but Cabrera’s 1st home run off of Holland last Sunday was the fastest and lowest trajectory HR this season…Holland initially thought it was coming right back at him. Think about that – for an instant, Holland thought it may hit the pitcher.

– Bruce Rondon is dominating at Toledo – 1 ER in 17 2/3 IPs. He has walked 6, so that’s a concern, but he’s struck out 21 and has a 1.21 GO/AO. Dotel coming back soon too, look for some bullpen shuffling in the coming weeks.

– Good overview of the Tigers top 10 prospects thus far this year.

Today’s Camouflage Lineup (with #’s v. Liriano):

  1. Omar Infante, 2B (1-9, 3 K’s)
  2. Torii Hunter, RF (4-13, HR)
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B (9-26, 2 HR, 8 walks, 6 K’s)
  4. Prince Fielder, 1B (3-19)
  5. Victor Martinez, DH (11-24, HR)
  6. Jhonny Peralta, SS (10-34, 2 HR, 6 walks, 13 K’s)
  7. Matt Tuiasosopo, LF (0-5)
  8. Brayan Pena, C (4-13)
  9. Avisail Garcia, CF (0-1)

DTW Book Club v1

This could fail miserably…but here goes.

I found this gem on Amazon a few days ago (under “Books you may like” what does this say?).

I’m only a few chapters into it, but it is FANTASTIC, and I think that several of you would really enjoy it. Here’s the write-up from Amazon:

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An ex-Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball‘s famed sabermetrics to place bets that would beat the Vegas odds on Major League Baseball games–with a 41 percent return in his first year. Trading Bases explains how he did it. After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta needed a new employer. He found a new job in New York City but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down as he crossed the street on foot. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That’s when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball–and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500?In Trading Bases, Peta shows how to subtract luck–in particular “cluster luck,” as he puts it–from a team’s statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball “hedge fund” returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011– with daily volatility similar to funds he used to trade for. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers.

Far from writing a dry, do-it-yourself guidebook, Peta weaves a story that is often humorous, and occasionally touching; the topic may be “Big Data” but it’s as entertaining as a Bill Simmons column. Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.
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He’s already brought up “run efficiency” which is something that we discussed on here a few weeks (or months?) ago. If anyone picks it up, let me know and we can discuss.