All posts by Kevin in Dallas

2013 Season, Links, Players

DTW News and Notes 4-14-13

2 Comments

A few notes to get you through the off-day.

Interesting Numbers:

1: number of errors thus far by the Tigers (Scherzer’s missed pickoff, which may have cost us a W)

1: number of hits by a right-handed hitter off of Anibal Sanchez this season.

5: number of saves by Jason Grilli this year. Here is his line this year: 6 games, 5 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 7 Ks, 0.00 ERA 1.06 WHIP. The Tigers pen is posting a chunky 5.59 ERA with 2 saves, 3 blown saves, and a 1.54 WHIP.

17: number of runs scored by AJax, tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th with 12.

19: Number of RBI by Fielder, tied for tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th wih 13.

.307: Tigers team BA. OPS is .796, behind the Yankees (.816) and A’s (.808 – imagine what it was on Friday). Lee Panas explains the low-ish OPS here.

1.361: 2nd-best OPS in the Majors, owned by Fielder. But he’s not even the top 1B in the AL…(Chris Davis – 1.362).

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– Rondon has allowed 1 hit, walked 2 and struck out 3 in 4 scoreless innings thus far this year.

– Valverde has really ingratiated himself with his Lakeland teammates.

2013 Season, Game Post

Game 2013.6: Yankees at Tigers

31 Comments

When I first took a look at the schedule, I thought that the Tigers should be able to take each of the first 2 series, and get out of the gate 4-2. After a disappointing games 2 and 3, the Tigers can get to 4-2 with a sweep today, which would be the first regular season sweep of the Yankees since ’08, and first in Detroit since 2000.

The Tigers face Yankees ace CC Sabathia. In his career, Sabathia is 18-12 with a 4.43 ERA against the Tigers. Over his last 8 starts at Comerica, he’s 2-5 with a 6.80 ERA. Which segues nicely into my next point – is Sabathia losing his stuff?

Looking at Fangraphs Pitch f/x data, you can see that Sabathia’s fastball has lost a few mph. Early in his career he averaged about 94 mph and topped out at 99. Last year he averaged 92.4 and topped out at 96.3. He looked slow in spring training, and in the Yankees opener, his fastball averaged 89.9 mph and topped out at 91.3. I recognize that one game doesn’t make a sample size, but his 2011 and 2012 have begun the downward trend. I don’t know if he can reverse it at this point in time. As we’ve discussed here before, losing a few mph on your fastball is killer for a starting pitcher, and low 90s got Jose Valverde booted from the big leagues.

This is CC’s 10th time to match up against JV, he’s 4-4 with a 5.01 ERA. Both Cabrera (1.147 OPS) and Fielder (1.098) rake against CC. Peralta (1-17) not so much.

Let’s see if JV can pitch into the 6th today.

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A few notes:

– Austin Jackson has led off each game by reaching base, and has scored 4 times. He has 7 runs scored in 5 games this season. And he’s Kd 2 while walking 3 times.

– ESPN did a touching article on Max Scherzer and his brother yesterday.

– I’ve gotta take back my “6.74” post yesterday. The Tigers bullpen ERA is actually a bit lower because none of the ERs were charged to Al Al yesterday, despite a 3.0 WHIP performance.

– Off day tomorrow – so root extra hard today.

Today’s Series Sweeping Lineup (coming soon – update, gotta jet, someone please post). I think we’ve established that Pena will be starting, look for Tuiasosopo to start in left.

 

2013 Season, Game Post

Game 2013.5: Yankees at Tigers

48 Comments

Now that was a Hope Opener.

Like most of you, I surmise, I came into baseball consciousness well before the internet, streaming scores and instant updates. Growing up in Arlington, the only way I could get Tigers scores was to maybe catch a glimpse on the evening news (if I was allowed to stay up that late), or hopefully catch the “out of town scores” during the Rangers radio broadcast. I didn’t understand how they got those scores, but I wasn’t complaining. I don’t remember the TV guys being too concerned with the AL East back in the day (or AL Central post 1994). Typically, I did not get the Tigers score until the next morning when it was a race against my brother downstairs to grab the sports page and dive into the box scores. I used to stare at them for what seemed like an hour a day.

Then, however, there was the magic of the ballpark – and the out of town scoreboard. I didn’t quite understand how, but ballparks had mystical powers which allowed them to get updated scores every inning! And they would even let you know who was pitching (if you knew their numbers)! I yearned to see the wormhole in time which allowed the scoreboard guy at Arlington Stadium to get instant score updates; but I was content to just watch the numbers roll over.

Well, I went out to the Ballpark yesterday, and thanks to cell phone connectivity issues in crowded places, I was transported back to my childhood and found myself scoreboard watching. And it was fantastic.

2-0. Nice start.

2-3!?! I hate the Yankees!

5-3!!! There must have been a home run, right? 5th inning – I wonder if one of the big boys hit one out? Did Cabrera get another RBI?

6-3! That was fast. Maybe a solo shot? A double then single? Not enough time to load the bases and WP one in. When did I last check the scoreboard?

8-3. Final. I couldn’t wait to get home and read about it.

Just like I had hoped.

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Remember that today’s game is the Fox Game of the Week.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Santiago, 2B

2013 Season, Game Post

Game 2013.4: Yankees at Tigers

25 Comments

Being a fan is tough. In baseball, even in the best years, it means you’re going to have at least 70 lousy baseball days, and a few dozen of those will rip your sports heart out.

I just want you to know, that however frustrated/angry/disappointed/amused you feel regarding yesterday’s bullpen (lack of) effort. I feel the same way.

Hope opener today. Short and Sweet for the Win.

I’m headed out to Rangers Ballpark for their home opener, someone please post the lineups when they are released.

2013 Season, Previews

Spring Springs Hope

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Ahh, Opening Day. Every team is in first place. Every fan has hopes for the post season. If at least for one day.

I remember the start of the ’07 season. Coming off a 2006 WS appearance (which looked inevitable mid-season, impossible in September, and then undeniable in October), I hoped the addition of Gary Sheffield and another year of experience for Robertson, Maroth and Verlander would put the team in prime position for a return trip. But I was nervous, very much so. The ’06 playoff run felt like a perfect storm, and honestly, I didn’t think we could repeat it.

I remember the start of last season. A recent ALCS appearance. The addition of Fielder. JV coming off of one of the greatest pitching seasons in recent history. A very weak AL Central. “Detroit Tigers” essentially etched into the AL Central Crown in March. But I was nervous, very much so. We all saw Valverde’s decline in the playoffs. We all knew that Avila and Peralta had to regress. And the regular season played out that way. Heck, the overall tone of the discussions on this site last season anxious and skeptical, at best.

It seems as if that kind of nervous anticipation has been the rule around the team for a while…but this spring has been different. It’s as if in the past the Tigers had to prove that they were a good club, but know they know it. The spotlight (or lack thereof) has been on the team. The Hunter and Sanchez signings seem like an eternity ago. For all of the expectations and accompanying pressures of a WS team, this has been a relatively quiet spring. And I think this evidences the maturation of a club into a good one. This is reflected not only in the manner in which the team carries itself, but also in how the beat writers and fans approach the team. There really hasn’t been any negativity. The Bruce Rondon demotion was warranted, and perhaps planned long ago. In other seasons, such a hole would have sunk the ship. In fact, I can’t remember a spring so devoid of position battles and controversy; but I also can’t remember a team so stacked.

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So on to the 2013 season.

’35, ’45, ’68, ’84. I find myself repeating those years at night like Arya Stark repeats her enemies; only I dream for more joyous thoughts.

Let’s have an objective discussion (as objective as a discussion on a blog dedicated solely to the Detroit Tigers can be) about the club. I’m going to avoid the obvious – Cabrera, JV, Fielder, etc. (Before I get going – there as a great article on Fangraphs a few days ago discussing Verlander’s new contract in comparison to those of Felix & Kershaw (contract coming soon), and other dominant pitchers in recent history. Jeff Sullivan ends with “Verlander Porn” which is JV making Asdrubel Cabrera look like a little leaguer. The comments are great as well.)

1) The Tigers have the best rotation in all of MLB. Or at least in the AL. Bless You Boys backed this claim up last December with a mass of sabermetric support, and I don’t think I could do it any better. Smoking Loon laid out his comparisons against the Central here. There’s a decent chance that Max Scherzer could get some Cy Young consideration this year. And it’s not ludicrous to think that Porcello can develop into a top of the rotation pitcher. But the great thing is, that even if Scherzer and Porcello simply stay within their expected range, the Tigers starters would be enough to carry this team throughout the season.

2) The Bullpen is better by subtraction. Benoit has been worth every bit of his $16.5M, and I think we all have confidence that Dotel can close. It’s arguable that Phil Coke should be given a chance to close based on his October alone. And Al Al may have the sickest stuff in the pen. If Rondon gets his act together, even better. But I don’t think we need him just yet.

3) The lineup is going to be a blast to watch day in and day out. If AJax can keep improving upon his plate discipline, 2012 will be the norm and he’ll be a superstar. Hunter and Martinez will be significant upgrades over those lineup spots last year, and history tells us that Avila and Peralta have to bounce back. But even if they don’t, this lineup is so deep that we can deal with those holes (though it would be difficult to justify Peralta anymore).

4) The defense will be better. Fielder and Cabrera are improving, and full seasons from Omar Infante, Torii Hunter (barring injury) and Andy Dirks will significantly improve the team defense.

A WS team is now better in every facet of the game, not to mention that Lamont is now on the bench.

Make sure you check out frequent commentor and numbers guru Lee Panas’ 10 predictions for Tigers Batters and Tigers Pitchers. Lee’s predicting 95 wins. I’ll go one better. A weak Central and 7 games against the Astros gets us to 96 wins, good for 2nd best record in the AL. Playoffs?…I’m hoping for one for the thumb.

2013 Season, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Rick Porcello Trade Talks

53 Comments

According to ESPN (my Scorecenter App alert, to be precise) – the Rangers have inquired about Rick Porcello.

This makes sense to me for a number of reasons.

1) The Rangers just lost Martin Perez for several months with a fractured forearm. Perez was slated to be their #5. This is a team who has already shelved Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis to begin the season.

2) As we’ve discussed on here before, Rick Porcello’s peripherals were actually pretty good last year- FIP under 4, increased velocity, and an increased K rate, to name a few. Jon Daniels is just the kind of GM that would value that.

3) Porcello’s fighting for a spot on maybe the deepest rotation in the AL, and the Tigers could use a lefty (Smyly) in the rotation.

Now, the Rangers have one of the best farm systems in the league, and they are also desperately trying to figure out what to do with Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. They are also frustrated with Ian Kinsler and have discussed moving him to the OF. I doubt we’ll hear Andrus or Profar mentioned…but what about Porcello, Castellanos and Rondon for Andrus and Kinsler?

I’ll keep you guys posted on what I hear down here.

2013 Season, Players, Spring Training

Don’t Ask Dotel (about Miguel Cabrera)

26 Comments

Is there trouble brewing in the clubhouse? Or is there nothing else to talk about?

The fallout from the Yahoo article I posted on Wednesday has been at least measurable, if not significant. Of course, Dotel clumsily backtracked yesterday (think Delmon Young in LF) and apologized to Miggy,

So what do you guys think?

I think that there’s a little something to this. Cabrera isn’t the most mature player out there (White Sox series in ’09 and the DUI come to mind), so perhaps someone calling him out like this will help him to grow up a bit. I have no idea what went on in the locker room last October, but SF wasn’t sweep the Tigers good. There had to be some chaos going on in the clubhouse.

All in all, I think this is a good thing. If the Tigers hadn’t won the AL Pennant, this wouldn’t be national news. It’s kind of nice to be in the spotlight.

First ST game on MLB.tv tomorrow!

2013 Season, Spring Training

Happy 30th, JV.

5 Comments

Here’s a video card! (from MLive)

Not a whole lot going on, other then games of pepper and intrasquad scrimmages, so here are a few links to keep you going until Rondon gets drilled and TSE demands that we resign Valverde for a logical 1 year salary which is not irrationally based on his positive contributions during the acceptable part of his season last year.

– Can Cabrera get any better? I agree with Octavio Dotel that he could be a better leader. This is the first I’ve heard of a player’s only being called for but ignored after game 2 of the WS. In retrospect, it would have been nice.

– To that end, do you guys remember when we were in the WS? Seems unbelievable considering the disappointment and uncertainty regarding the team and skipper all season long. I mean, we were at it all season on the DTW. Sure as heck did make for a lot of fun.

– John Lowe makes an interesting case for why Dirksie (or is it “Dirksy”? – I heard Avila say that on MLB radio last night) could win a batting title.

– 8:1 odds to win the WS…pretty salty. Tor at 7:1.  BP has Detroit running away with the division. As do I. Also on BP – the Tigers’ depth chart is free of charge (along with San Fran). Perk of winning the pennant. I usually subscribe to BP each year, the content is worth it.

2013 Season, Spring Training

Catching Up

30 Comments

Hello Friends –

This PED stuff is really interesting to me. My reaction to the latest reports on Biogenesis was a far cry from the disappointment that I had to similar reports in the (way) past. At this point in time, I’m surprised there weren’t more people on the list. Or any Tigers for that matter (well, none on the big league club, prospect Cesar Carillo was linked). If you were to take a pure economic look at using PEDs (laced with tons of assumptions, but hey, I said “economic”) I think the risk/reward test isn’t so easy. Let’s take a look at Melky Cabrera. Here’s his WAR and OPS+ in each full season:

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158

* suspended for 50 games.

Here’s the same table with an additional column.

Year WAR (B-R) OPS+ Salary
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012		 2.7
1.2
.2
.9
-.5
4.1
4.7*		 95
88
68
93
83
121
158		 not listed
$432,400
$461,200
$1,400,000
$3,100,000
$1,250,000
$6,000,000

And in case you missed it – he’ll make $9,000,000 in each of 2013 and 2014.

I think we can all hazard a guess as to when he started taking PEDs. Assuming he did start prior to the 2011 season, why wouldn’t everyone in his situation take PEDs? A long vacation and financial security for the rest of your life (I’m ignoring adverse health consequences for the sake of argument); I’ll take it. Sure, he lost $2M or so last year, and his next violation would cost him 100 games, or roughly $6M on his current contract. He’d still have made $16M over 3 years – with 150 games in suspensions.

Now, some will argue that taking PEDs hurt his market value last fall, but what would his market value have been had he never taken them?

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Moving on.

– Great article on the limitations and frustrations of WAR. Notably, the discrepancies between B-R and FanGraphs. I use WAR quite a bit in my analysis, but it’s not perfect. That’s why Baseball is a talking sport.

– King Felix signed for $175M over 7 years is about to sign a huge deal. JV is licking his chops.

– Keith Law unveiled his Tigers top 10 prospects list (you’ll need insider) – here are the top 5: Castellanos, Garcia, Rondon, Tyler Collins, Danny Vasquez.

– P&C report on Tues, full squad on Friday. Why do the pitchers and catchers go 3 days early? What do they do?

2013 Season, Former Tigers, Links

Happy New Year!

66 Comments

Hello Friends – I hope that everyone had a happy and healthy holiday season.

I’ve got a few stories of interest that I plan to post below, but first, I’d like to ask if anyone out there would like to help with the game posts this year. We could use one, maybe two more. Assuming we get the help, that will allow us to put up more than just game posts during the season. If you’re interested – just note it in a comment and I’ll email you off-line.

Secondly, I’d like to raise some money to re-vamp the site. DTW is awesome already, mostly due to the in-depth discussions (seriously, you ever see the comments elsewhere?), but there’s no doubt that a redesign taking advantage of some of the latest technology could improve things a bit. I need to get with billfer on this, so no timetable yet, but hopefully soon. In the meantime, know that an ask is coming. If any of you are developers/designers (it’s a WordPress site), let me know.

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On to our Tigers.

P&Cs hasn’t yet been released, but spring training opens up against the Braves on February 22nd… In the meantime, check out Dan Dickerson’s weekly 1 hour radio show to suppress your excitement for another 7 weeks.

Alan Trammell was my favorite Tiger growing up, and remains in my short list of favorite athletes of all time. I think this is probably the case for many Generation X Tiger fans. I used to get worked up about his HoF credentials, but those had largely subsided, until Matt Snyder of CBS Sports reignited the flame. His article names Trammell and Whitaker as the greatest double play combo of all time (using combined baseball-reference WAR), and it’s not even close; and then points out that they are the only non-active duo on his list where at least one of the tandem is not in the Hall of Fame.

I’m excited about Bruce Rondon, but you know, Brian Wilson is out there. Yeah, Tommy John recovery and all, but for the right price? What do you think? I’m on the fence. I can think of worse ways to spend money, and his gimp prank is legendary, but I think we can go to Dotel or Benoit if Rondon doesn’t work out.

Good luck Bondo. I’m sure you’ll strike out Avisail Garcia with a lefty on the bench in mid-June to clinch a W for the Ms.

Delmon Young = Jeff Francouer?

FanGraphs posted their top 15 organizational prospects last week.

 

2012 Season, 2013 Season, Free Agents

Hot Stove Talk – December Edition

29 Comments

Hello DTW Friends –

Considering the hottest story of the past week has been regarding Tom Brookens resurrecting his career at coaching 3B, I think it’s safe to say that we are in a quiet period. Which is the opposite of how Tom Brookens is handling the promotion(?).

That said, I thought I’d put up a new thread to reset the comments, and to pass along a cool offer from AnyDate.com.

And now a word from our sponsor:

AnyDate.com specializes in providing you with unique sports gifts- especially those related to the famed Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper consists of 63-pages of commemorative New York Times headlines, articles & photographs about the Tigers. Celebrate all of the Tigers best plays, games, and series with this Detroit Tigers History Newspaper, which includes a special color section!

The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper is THE birthday or holiday gift for any true Tigers fan!

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And by sponsor, I mean that AnyDate.com is going to give away a free Detroit Tigers History Newspaper to DTW in return for the promotion. Thus, here’s how I’d like to select the winner – tell your best Tom Brookens memory – maybe you saw him at a game, maybe there’s a crazy George Brett/Wade Boggs -like story out there about him, or maybe he evokes a great Tigers memory. As everyone posts, chime in and vote for whose you like best, and then we’ll award the winner next week sometime.

By the way, if my wife is reading this, I’d love one of these. I’ll go ahead and give the Pistons a better chance of winning the NBA Championship this year.

Happy Holidays all – I doubt I’ll post again before the New Year unless something substantial happens. But I’ll definitely be reading along and posting when I have something to add (or need to remind TSE to stay on track).