Open thread for the Winter Meeting activities…don’t have much time this morning, but I’m sure our community will keep us up to date…check back often.
– Apparently Asdrubal Cabrera has a block on the Tigers, along with the Yankees, Red Sox, Nationals, Giants and Mets. Interesting company.
– I don’t think the Indians want Peralta, but perhaps the Marlins have something that the Indians want.
– If the Tigers are shopping for a closer, here are some candidates.
(see what I did there? Tres? You can call me the blog post title Expert, if you’d like)
It’s been a while, so let’s get caught up on Free Agent news around the club. There hasn’t been much movement around Detroit, but some interesting things nonetheless.
I am fascinated by the Josh Hamilton situation. Living in Dallas, I can tell you that the club’s attitude towards him at the end of the season through now was definitely resentful, and bordered on disgust. His lack of effort, his massive August slump and his unappreciative comments angered many around here. It looks like that attitude leaked out to MLB in general and he’s not seeing the money he hoped he would. Jon Daniels makes smart decisions, so if they make Hamilton an offer, it will be at a level that the club feels he is worth, regardless of what the market says.
On to our Tigers…
This Rafael Soriano stuff is heating up. I know that we have Rondon waiting in the wings, but why not Soriano? Money is not an object here. Illitch is in a spend now to win now mindset, of which we should be very appreciative. I would love to see Soriano nailing down the 9th for us. Rondon will have his time. Tony Paul of Detroit News disagrees. By the way, where would Boras be without Illitch? About 1% less rich?
I think that many feel that Porcello is expendable if we sign Sanchez, but Dave Cameron argues that Porcello is poised for a breakout season (you’ll need insider). Cameron writes “He set career highs in both strikeout rate and ground ball rate in 2012, but even more encouragingly, his velocity jumped nearly 2 mph, and he was regularly topping out at 95 for the first time as a big leaguer. The improvement was masked by mediocre results, but those were primarily caused by a .344 batting average on balls in play, and considering how dreadful the Tigers’ defense was, that’s a number that is unlikely to be repeated with any other set of teammates. While his 4.59 ERA won’t blow you away, his 3.91 FIP suggests he was much better than his raw stats suggest.” (note – I find the insider subscription to be well worth it) Porcello will benefit more than anyone from a better middle infield…
So let’s talk about the middle infield for a bit. There have been rumors that the Arizona Diamonbacks whant Peralta. Not sure why (likely at 3B), but let’s assume that they are true and that the Tigers make a deal for Justin Upton. Then what do we do at SS? Some think that the Tigers may covet Stephen Drew. But Drew would likely be a downgrade defensively (especially after ankle surgery) and would definitely be worse offensively than Peralta. Some have suggested putting in Danny Worth and just sacrificing his spot in the lineup in return for the increased defense. This is not a bad idea. Runs shouldn’t be a problem in 2013, defense will. As we all know, the Tigers were one of the worst teams in the league at turning ground balls into outs, and Worth’s range at SS would be of significant value. There was a long insider article on ESPN yesterday which addressed the tigers middle infield problems, here are a few of the highlights:
Boesch may be on the block, according to Jon Paul Morosi. I definitely think that Boesch is expendable, I just don’t see us getting much in return.
I think the real lynch pin is Garcia. If he’s the right fielder of the future, then there’s no spot for Justin Upton – whom I’m guessing the Tigers would go after in a Peralta to the DBacks deal. Though I would love to see the Tigers deal Boesch and Peralta for minor leaguers, and then run with Worth at SS. Here’s a potential lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. VMart, DH
6. Garcia, RF
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Worth, SS
Nice.
A few other notes:
– Remember how we acquired QBert and Darin Downs? Offseason minor league contracts. Just signed 19 more – including 2005 first round pick Trevor Bell.
– In case you missed it – the Tigers released some info on their World Series shares.
– Remember when the Tigers were in the World Series? Seems like forever ago.
Miguel Cabrera is your 2012 AL MVP.
What was billed to be a neck and neck battle between Old School and New School turned out to be Cabrera in a laugher, as he took 22 of 28 first place votes, and handily beat Trout with 362 points to 281 points.
I sat in on the Cabrera conf call (thank you billfer for forwarding me the info) – a few highlights:
1) Albom asked about “old stats” vs. “new stats” and what Cabrera’s thoughts on them were; specifically what Cabrera thought about Trout dominating the new stats. Albom seemed to want to bait Cabrera into proclaiming a preference for traditional metrics. Cabrera responded that he grew up following those stats, and that it was very special for him to lead in the 3 major categories, but that he understands the importance of the new stats and thinks that there is a place for both of them. Keep an eye out for Albom’s column in the morning.
2) A reporter from Reuters asked Cabrera if winning the Triple Crown won him the MVP and pointed out that 4 less hits, or 2 less HRs, and Cabrera doesn’t win the Triple Crown. Cabrera basically said no Triple Crown – no MVP.
3) A reporter asked in Spanish whether Cabrera was nervous leading up to today. Cabrera said no, he thought that he was deserving, but thought that Trout had a tremendous season and expected Trout to win. I thought this was a great, candid response. I’m guessing that the major papers have translators on the line, but it will be interesting to see if anyone runs with this in the morning.
4) Cabrera was humble, respectful of everyone, and extremely appreciative of his teammates and fans.
Congrats, Cabrera.
Carrying over the previous thread (and this is over a few days, so some of the news is from Monday).
– Open letter to TSE, dude, you gotta start making some specific recommendations. You’re turning away readers. I implore you, suggest a few actual deals. Everyone who reads knows that I let just about anything go here, other than cursing, but I don’t want to lose readers. On the other hand, if you are one of my nemesis (or is that nemesi?) and this is an incredibly long and brilliant prank, bravo!
– Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted on Friday that the Tigers aren’t looking at Rafael Soriano, and that Rondon will have a crack at it come spring training. Early reports from the Venezuelan Winter League are strong.
– Sanchez’s price may be going up – apparently his first ask was $90M over 6, and his latest was $100M over 7, according to Jon Heyman.
– Torii Hunter is in Detroit right now and is saying all the right things. Looks like it’s between Detroit and Texas – and Hunter lives in Prosper, which is 20 miles north of Arlington. With all of his son’s troubles, I would think that he wants to be closer to home, but hopefully we’ll see him roaming left in Comerica next year. Hunter’s presence in the clubhouse could really help with all of the young OFers we have (I think that Berry is the oldest who will make the roster next year, no?).
– Lynn Henning thinks that the Tigers might flip Peralta to AZ (where he could play 3B) and that Worth should get the shot at SS. Replacing Rayburn/Boesch/Young in the lineup will definitely allow us to sacrifice some O for D next year.
A few other notes:
– The Freep is putting out a book on the 2012 season – could be a nice stocking stuffer for the Tigers fan with average expectations on your list.
– Cabrera and Fielder won Silver Slugger awards last week.
– FanGraphs takes a look at Avila and wonders if 2011, or 2012, was the aberration.
Just to stoke the fire a bit…
Baseball Winter Meetings are Dec 3rd – 6th in Nashville this year.
The potential free agents are all over the board, here’s what I’m finding:
– 2 guys from CBSSports think that Josh Hamilton will be a Tiger. 1 guy from DTW thinks that this is ridiculous. Josh Hamilton is a drain on the clubhouse and the franchise in general. I don’t think the Rangers are even going to tender him an offer. He’s got more off the field problems than the cast of Broke, and over the past 6 years he’s averaged 1/4 of the season on the DL. Please, please, please, no Josh Hamilton.
– Jim Bowden listed the Tigers as potential matches for Nick Swisher, Angel Pagan, Cody Ross, Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera. I like Hunter of the bunch, but I think he’ll get overpaid by the Rangers (he lives in the area) or Yankees, and I’d prefer that the Tigers overpay for someone who wasn’t born when “Superstition” was #1 on the charts.
– Prediction: Bondo will get a spring training invite and re-invent himself as a short reliever specialist.
– MLive’s Chris Iott did a nice job breaking down the Tigers’ bullpen today, though he didn’t take a position on the 2013 closer. That will definitely be a big story, possibly through spring training if they want to give Rondon a shot.
– I’ve read that Sanchez is looking at 4 years in the $50M – $55M range. Check out this saber slanted post.
I’d love to write a long piece to recap all the fun we’ve had over these past several weeks, and to celebrate the historic season by Cabrera and what could be another Cy Young entry for Verlander. But I don’t think any of us have forgotten that, and this picture is more reflective of how we feel (at least about baseball for now).
To be honest, I moved my MLB.com and Freep apps off of my home screen on my cell phone today; signifying the unmistakable end of the 2012 baseball season. Dragging an MLB logo into a little digital trash can seemed like a proper ending.
It may be a few weeks before Coleman or I throw up another post, so I thought I’d leave you with a some DTW housekeeping notes, and then a few thoughts to carry us for a bit
1) I’d like to add another regular game poster (or two) for next season. I really liked it when billfer filled the blog with though-provoking commentary on issues outside of the game posts, and I’d like to give that a go if we can get some help on the game posts. Post on here if you’re interested and I’ll reach out to you.
2) I think that the site earns a few bucks from advertising, but I’m certain that billfer still pays for a portion of this out of pocket. There’s a good chance that I’ll ask for some donations in the coming months. Keep an eye out.
3) Thank you everyone for your input, feedback and patronage. DTW is the most acute Tigers’ community around.
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On to the Roster…
Free agency courting started when Cabby stood there like a house by the side of the road Sunday night (taking his cue from the entire lineup), and signings can start after midnight ET on Friday. A quick look at the Tigers’ Free Agents:
Free agents: DH/OF Young, RHP Sanchez, RHP Valverde, C Gerald Laird.
Young is gone. Valverde is gone. I think each will end up with decent offers elsewhere.
Good chance the Tigers resign Laird.
Sanchez will be very interesting. Smyly looks great, he’s under control, and it sure would be nice to have a lefty in rotation. But Sanchez was fantastic down the stretch and may have finally found it. Sanchez will get great money elsewhere, so it’s a matter of how much the Tigers are willing to spend. I expect the Tigers to make a serious play for Sanchez – you can never have too much pitching.
Club options: RHP Dotel ($3.5 million, $500,000 buyout), SS Jhonny Peralta ($6 million, $500,000 buyout).
Yes and…I don’t know. I’m not a huge Peralta fan, but there’s not a lot out there. Now, remember that VMart is back next year, that will help the offense. Since we’re not going to get better defensively at either corner, I’d be willing to sacrifice Peralta’s bat (it’s not bad for a SS) for a SS with better defensive range.
Arbitration eligible: C Alex Avila (1st time), OF Brennan Boesch (1st time), RHP Phil Coke (2nd time), RHP Doug Fister (1st time), OF Austin Jackson (1st time), OF/IF Don Kelly (2nd time), RHP Rick Porcello (2nd time), OF/2B Ryan Raburn (3rd time), RHP Max Scherzer (2nd time).
I’d expect the Tigers to make nice offers to Avila (thank goodness he’s eligible this year, and not last), Coke, Fister, Jackson and Scherzer. I bet that Ricky P gets into arbitration (such an interesting process, Tigers staff show up with charts and graphs which advance the notion that Porcello is a terrible pitcher), and I think they let Kelly, Boesch and Raburn go. Kelly could find a spot as the 25th guy on the roster, but personally, I’d rather that be Berry. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boesch turn into a decent player somewhere else, but I definitely think it’s time for him to move on from Detroit.
Gonna be a very interesting few days, keep an eye on the comments for updates from our community.
4 games to go.
I distinctly remember the off days leading up to the ’06 series. I was watching John Kruk (on ESPN) during the Cardinals/Mets series, and someone asked him who his pick would be to win the NLCS. Kruk just laughed and said something to the effect of “does it matter? Detroit’s going to win the whole thing.” What a great feeling that was. And how quickly it dissipated after game 4 in Detroit.
I think we all felt that way leading up to Wednesday’s game, even in spite of the long off days WS stats. But now the stuff has hit the fan…check this out:
Of the 52 World Series to see a team go up 2 games to zero, 41 of those teams leading have hung on to win the series. Further, only one team out of the last fifteen trailing 0-2 has triumphed over their opponent. The Tigers are 0-2 in WS when they started 0-2.
From what I’m reading, many of you want to blame Leyland, but honestly, I just don’t see it. Here are my thoughts (just my opinion, feel free to counter):
But let’s move on.
I don’t want to talk about the rest of the series, I want to talk about one game. Let’s be honest, tonight is a must win.
The Tigers will have their work cut out for them against righty Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong returned to MLB in 2011 after 3 years in Japan. His 2011 campaign was good enough to land him an All-Star spot, and in 2012 he went 14-9 with a 3.37 ERA, .242 BAA and 1.23 WHIP. He throws a low to mid-90’s fastball (4 seam and 2 seam), along with a slider, curve and change-up. One of the greatest reasons for his improvement has been his K rate, which is 6.74/9 for his MLB career, but was 6.96/9 in 2011, and 7.5/9 for 2012. He’s striking out 8.52/9 this postseason.
Speaking of the postseason, he’s been phenomenal, posting a 1.42 ERA and a .89 WHIP covering 3 starts and 19 innings. His splits are pretty routine for an above average righty, and he walks about 3 per game. Oh yeah – he had a streak of 16 consecutive quality starts earlier this season.
Anibal Sanchez will need to bring his best stuff tonight. I like where his head is right now:
“We need to start over,” … “We need to forget what happened in San Francisco. I know we’ve got the talent. That’s why we’re here.”
Sanchez has the physical capabilities, and I have been impressed with his composure. Plus, he’s 3-1 in 5 career starts versus the Giants. Blanco is 4-7 off of Sanchez, and Pence is 6-18. Sandoval is 1-6 with 0 HR.
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Here’s why we win tonight:
1) The Tigers were 22-8 at Comerica to close out the season and are 4-0 at Comerica in the postseason.
2) Andy Dirks is in the lineup and covering left field.
3) We’re simply too good to lose 3 in a row.
Tonight’s Back in the Series Lineup
1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B (1-for-5 off Vogelsong)
4. Fielder, 1B (0-for-3 off Vogelsong)
5. Young, DH (1-for-3 off Vogelsong)
6. Dirks, RF (0-for-3, 2 K’s off Vogelsong)
7. Peralta, SS (1-for-2, 1 walk off Vogelsong)
8. Avila, C (0-for-1, 2 walks off Vogelsong)
9. Infante, 2B (7-for-11 off Vogelsong)
4 games to go.
What a tremendous season:
AL Central Division Champs.
AL Division Series Champs.
AL Pennant.
Triple Crown Winner.
Perhaps another Cy Young winner.
But you know what? It’s not enough. The D deserves more. And we’re gonna get it.
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Now, as I’m sure you have all see, there is an abundance of Tigers media out there right now. It’s starting to consume my life, to be honest. But we only get a max of 9 days of this, so I’m just gonna fight through it. I do, however, want to point out a touching ESPN.com story on Jim Leyland, and one on CNN SI about winning the title for Mr. I. If you can spare some time in-between the hundreds of other articles out there, check ’em out.
The Tigers advance to the World Series for the 11th time in franchise history – with 4 wins in ’35, ’45, ’68 and ’84. I’ve only been around for the ’84 series, but all I remember from ’84 is the kick-ass place-mats from Elias Brothers. Yes, I just bid on those. If the Tigers win again, I’ll buy whatever place-mats Big Boy puts out for 2012.
So on to tonight’s game.
Barry Zito, who still has another year left on his massive 7 year contract that pays him roughly $18M per year, climbs the mound for the Giants. Since signing that tremendous contract, which at the time was the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, Zito has been a tremendous disappointment. Until this year he had not posted a winning record with the Giants, and has still yet to post a sub-4 ERA. Over the years Zito has morphed from a hard throwing lefty with two great out pitches (curve & change) to a finesse pitcher who rarely tops 87 and looks to work the corners and fool the hitters. Today, he throws a few different fastballs and his curve and change in roughly equal proportions.
In 2012, Zito went 15-8 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, walked 3.42/9, and only struck out only 5.57/9. Bochy’s decision to go with Zito for Game 5 of the NLCS looked to be more of a long-shot than anything, though his masterful 7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER effort may have sparked the Giants to the NL pennant. But all in all, he’s a mediocre pitcher who will try to out think the Tigers (remember that Kenny Rogers had quite a bit of success doing this for the Tigers in the ’06 playoffs).
The Tigers haven’t hit that well in the postseason, though they are hitting better than everyone else. DY and Peralta look to be locked in, and Fielder and Cabrera could each carry a game on their own. Not much history v. Zito, but Cabby is 2-8, Fielder is 3-18, and DY is 2-3.
Verlander takes the ball perched as the best pitcher in baseball (if you believe the pundits, stats, fans, other players, etc.). This will be JV’s 12th career postseason start, and 3rd in the World Series.
The Tigers lineup is as expected, other than Avila in against the lefty Zito. But Laird is 3-15 off of Zito, and Avila has caught all 3 of JVs postseason starts this year.
A few notes:
– Buster Posey was the best hitter in baseball against lefties this year – .433/.470/.793.
– The vast majority of the predictions out there pick Detroit.
– DY plated all four game winning RBIs in the Yankee series – making him the 1st player in MLB history to do that. Heck, 4 game winning RBI in any single post-season series is an MLB record.
Your Game 1 Lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Garcia, RF
8. Avila, C
9. Verlander, P
Let’s…go…Tigers!
I was wrong (again…so I think). On September 27th, prior to game 156, I posted that this would likely be Leyland’s last regular season game in Detroit. Now I’m certain he’ll be here next April.
As intolerable as Leyland’s idiosyncrasies, tendancies and hunches are, it is these same foibles that have him in his 2nd WS as a Tiger in 6 years. Take that in for a minute.
If you take a close look, it’s really the positives that emerge from his faults (as we see them) that have the Tigers playing for their 5th World Series title.
He’s loyal to his players, almost to a fault. Every single one of us has either written, said, or thought “why is ______ still playing?” Likely all 3, and likely multiple times. So how do guys like Peralta and DY, who had career low years, respond? By leading the offense and winning ALCS MVP, respectively, of course. Heck, Phil Coke seemed destined for the island of misfit toys next to Charlie-In-The-Box and the spotted elephant when he couldn’t get lefties out in the 6th inning. Now he’s striking out Raul Ibanez with the deadliest slider you’ll ever see on a 3-2 count.
His lineups are crazy…but he gets everyone involved, and keeps players fresh. In the playoffs, we had key contributions from guys like Garcia, Kelly and Worth. Kelly scored a key run, Garcia set Tigers pinch-hitter records, and think about that play Worth made in game 2 of the Oakland series. Santiago doesn’t make that play; Peralta certainly doesn’t. Thank goodness Worth was ready to play.
His bullpen management could politely be called stubbon and is a constant source of derision on the DTW. But let’s credit him for loosening up in the NYY Series, even if it was a game too late. He could have easily, and likely justifiably, used Valverde in game 4, but he stuck with Coke, in a move that I think foreshadows the World Series – go with Coke, or the hot hand (if it’s someone else).
He’s an emotional guy, which likely explains his seemingly non-rational decisions. But that emotion forges a bond with his players, and as hard as Mitch Albom tries to fabricate it, you won’t see a better moment than the one we witnessed when he pulled Cabby in the season-ender after Cabrera had clinched the triple crown.
About a month ago, I posed a question on here and asked how far would JL have to advance for you to want to bring him back next year. I said 1 series, which he’s eclipsed. Several of you commented that no matter what you wanted him gone next year. Has anyone else changed their mind? A recent Freep poll concluded that 70% of respondents want JL back. Where do you stand now?
One final thought:
“Sometimes I look around the stadium and I get a tear in my eye,” Leyland said. “I wish I didn’t show it. But to see those people waving those towels? To see them so happy? I truly believe the game impacts their lives.”
He’s talking about us.
2 more to the WS, 6 more to a championship.
How’s everyone doing out there? Feeling pretty good?
I sure am. I don’t think I can get enough of the MLB Network these days, though Dan Pleasac breaking down Paws’ YMCA dance did seem like they had run out of things to discuss.
Game 3 tonight in the D, Phil Hughes v. Justin Verlander. My prediction is 5-2 Tigers. But I do have a few concerns.
Concern #1) The lineup shakeup. Rodriguez and Swisher have been very easy outs – a combined 3-15 with 0 XBH. Gardner, especially at the top of the lineup, could be the spark the Yankees need. Remember, he was 7-17 in last year’s ALDS.
Concern #2) The Yankees are the Yankees. They won an AL best 95 games this year, and their 804 runs scored were 2nd in the Majors (Texas 808). That’s 98 more runs than the Tigers, or .6 more per game. Cano will get a hit at some point in time.
Concern #3) Leyland goes with his gut. Hughes’ reverse splits are ridiculous (.211 BAA, 2.32 ERA v Lefties, .308 BAA, 6.54 ERA v Righties), yet Leyland stacks the lineup with lefties. Who knows what else he may do tonight.
Concern #4) It can’t be this easy, can it? I mean, JV goes to 3-0, the Tigers up are 3-0, with 2 games left at home?
But here’s why we do win:
1) Phil Hughes isn’t that good. After a rough April and May, Phil Hughes showed glimpses of the front line starter the Yankees thought he could be. He went 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in June, and 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in July with a combined 1.06 WHIP and 58 Ks in 68 IPs against only 16 walks. But he regressed a bit in August as his BAA went up and Ks went down, and then blew up in September with a 5.19 ERA. For the season he was 16-13 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He had a great outing against Baltimore last week, allowing only 1 ER in 6 2/3 in a game 4 no-decision (Os won in 13). He faced the Tigers twice this year, pitching a complete game gem on June 3 when he allowed only 1 ER and struck out 8, and then was pounded for 8 hits and 4 ER in 4 1/3 on August 7th. Cabrera is 9-22 with 4 HRs off of Hughes, and Jhonny Defender is 10-20
2) The Tigers will hit again. Other than Jhonny (.852), no one has a playoff OPS higher than .732. This won’t last.
3) Justin Verlander. JV is 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA against the Yankees with 17 Ks over 14.1 IP in 3 career post-season starts, but I expect him to be much better tonight. He struck out 11 in each of his first 2 playoff starts, and his .75 WHIP is topped only by his .56 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .130.
4) I like our bullpen. Fangraphs posted a long piece yesterday which states that the Tigers’ pen really isn’t that bad, and concluded that it is likely mismanaged. The author took a particular liking to Al Al. Get in line. Phil Coke was phenomenal on Sunday night, allowing only 1 hit and throwing a ridiculous 23/28 strikes over 2 innings in saving game 2. Coke joins Guillermo Hernandez (you may know him as Willie) as the only pitchers in Tigers post-season history to register as 2+ inning save. The entire pen should be well rested tonight, though I’d be surprised to see Coke go more than 1 or 2 batters. (Note that Leyland hasn’t said whether Valverde will be used in a save situation tonight.)
Remember, as good as we feel about JV tonight, if the Yankees can eek out a win, they’ve got CC Sabathia going tomorrow, and they might be feeling that 2-2 is right around the corner. So let’s not take anything for granted.
A few notes:
– ARod and Swisher are out, Chavez and Gardner are in. This is Gardner’s 1st start since April 17th. Rodriguez was 4-6 off of JV this year, but on a 0-18 streak against righties.
– JL has made the post-season 7 times in 21 years of frustrating fans.
– Marcelo Carreno is the PTBNL in the Jeff Baker trade from August 5th.
– WS tickets go on sale tomorrow morning. They are only good if the Tigers win 2 more games.
Tonight’s 3-0 Lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B
A few notes for today:
– A Tigers starter hasn’t allowed a run in 4 games. ESPN’s Christina Kahrl wonders how quickly the Tigers pitching can dispatch the Yankees.
– Joe Girardi went on and on about instant replay after the loss. Jim Caple of ESPN says the Yankees need to stop whining, and reminds us of the blown calls that have greatly benefited the Yankees in recent years, oh, and that the Yankees were shut out. I was particularly fond of the subtitle which read “Complaining about an umpire’s blown call when you don’t score any runs is weak.” Selig says that replay next year will include foul/fair calls, no word on out calls. I, like Jim Leyland, enjoy that human element. If you can stand any more on the subject, Buster Olney was
– Jeff Seidel makes a case that we need to get behind Valverde if we’re going to win a WS.
– Jhonny Peralta is playing the best defense of his life.
– Swisher had his feelings hurt by some of the fans in RF on Sunday night; funny, though I don’t think you can blame Swisher for Jeter’s injury.
– Nice piece today by Lynn Henning on Coke.
4 wins away from the WS. 8 wins away from a championship.
A few weeks ago, I asked everyone how far would the Tigers have to advance in the playoffs for you to want to bring Leyland back? I said I’d be happy if he went deep into the ALCS, and it looks like there’s a good chance that happens…what was your response? Be honest now.
Honestly, I like our chances in this series. Our starting pitching has been remarkable since early September. The four starters posted a sub 1.50 ERA in the ALDS. Yes, it was against the Oakland Athletics, a team that batted .238 with a .714 OPS during the regular season. But that explains a 3.25 or 2.75 ERA, not 1.50. Fister, Sanchez, Verlander and Fister vs. Pettitte, Kuroda, Sabathia and Hughes.
And as bad at the Tigers bats seemed against the As (I can’t remember more than 5 RBIs on hits), they were actually the best offense of the 4 ALDS teams. Cabrera, who has reached base in all 16 of his post-season games with the Tigers, won’t be shut down like that again. Once he gets going, the rest of the guys will too.
Now, the bullpen is an issue. Or the back of the bullpen is an issue. I think that Leyland will go with Benoit and Valverde until they each blow another one, and then I think he’ll stick with them in their designated innings, but with Dotel looking over their shoulder. Not what I want him to do, but that’s what I think he’ll do.
Would you classify Tigers/Yankees as a rivalry? I certainly wouldn’t, but 3 playoff match-ups in 7 years isn’t bad. Pretty legit that the Tigers have been to the ALCS 3 times in the last 7 years, which speaks to the talents of Verlander and Santiago. Actually, since 2006, only the Yankees and Tigers have made 3 ALCS appearances. Selective sampling, I know, but perhaps Dombrowski and Leyland deserve more credit than we give them.
On to tonight’s game – 8pm Eastern on TBS. Fister v. Pettitte.
Andy Pettitte came out of hiding in May (I guess Clemens finally accepted the retraction) to pitch phenomenally, if only on a limited basis, for the Yankees this year. Pettitte started 12 games and finished with a 5-4 record, a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. That said, he had pretty significant R/L splits, with righties posting a .245 ERA and .681 OPS against .202 and .516 for lefties. In terms of playoff experience, Andy Pettitte is a triple secret black belt. He’s amassed well over a season’s worth of innings, 270, and has an impressive 19-11 postseason record with a 3.83 ERA. Fister has 24 career postseason IPs, and a 2-1 record and 4.13 ERA.
Fister followed up a marvelous September (3-1, 2.34 ERA) with a good start in game 2 of the ALDS. Roughly a year ago he started game 5 of the ALDS in New York, and held the Yankees to 1 ER over 5 innings, earning a W. He may need to go a bit deeper tonight, but I don’t think that nerves will be a problem.
The Tigers were 4-6 against the evil empire this year, 3-4 there, and 1-2 at Comerica. Cabrera (4-12, 2 HR), Peralta (6-16, 3) and Young (11-19) all mash against Pettitte.
A few notes:
– Roster stays the same for the ALCS. Still wondering why Santiago is on there. I guess it’s a 2006 thing.
– If you think that the baseball nation knows anything about baseball, then things are looking good for the Tigers. According to an ESPN poll, 61% of sportsnation thinks the Tigers will win, and the majority feel that the Tigers have the better hittiers and starting pitching.
– For those of you who are in to Fangraphs (like I am), here’s a nice long run down on the series.
– Due to an internal glitch, the Nationals sent their fans a WS pre-sale notice this morning, just hours after the most heartbreaking loss in franchise history. So you know when people say “well, it can’t get any worse than this?” They’re wrong.
Tonight’s Tone Setting Lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Garcia, RF (my pick to click)
9. Laird, C