35-37, 3rd place, 3 games behind CWS.

I realize that runs were a luxury over the weekend, but the Pirates are now 23-13 at home with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, all of which are best in the bigs.

Quentin Berry’s 2 run home run yesterday was just the 22nd Tigers home run with runners on base this season, which is 13th in the AL. Only the Royals have hit less HR with runners on base this season. Let’s take a closer look at the solo HR phenomenon.

The Tigers have now hit 44 solo home runs this year out of 66 total. Yes, the 67% solo HR ratio is worst in the AL, but the average solo HR % in the AL this year is 59%, and the Yankees, Blue Jays, Angels and Rays all have solo HR percentages at 60% or greater. So we’re not too far from the mean. FYI – the average AL team HR so far is 77, with a median of 71. So we’re 11 home runs off of the average pace, or about one every 6-7 games. Since 59% of those would be solos, it’s really not that many runs.

In conclusion, solo HRs are not the problem.

Our BA with runners on is .277, which is 3rd in the AL, but our slugging with runners on dips to .406, 7th in the AL. And slugging overall is .408, 7th in the Al. This looks be be a much bigger problem – we hit for average, but we don’t hit for any power. Why not? Let’s look at the lineup:

1. Jackson is slugging over 100 points higher than his career average. He’s not the problem.

2. Berry is slugging .423, which is almost 100 points higher than his MiLB average. I don’t think he can keep this up.

3. Cabrera is down slightly (.524 from .554). Not a big deal, though his walks are way down (understandably considering Fielder), but he’s not taking advantage of the increases ABs. That’s a tiny contribution to the problem.

4.  Fielder is down to .493 from .536. This is a problem. Some of this may be park effects, we’ll have to take a deeper look soon.

5. Delmon is down to .384 from .424. This is a problem.

6. Peralta is down to .394 from .426. This is a problem.

7. Boesch is down to .360 from .419. This is a problem.

8. Avila is down to .396 from .444. This is a problem.

9. Santiago is down to .318 from .341. This is funny.

Rayburn is down to .245 from .436. Did you know that RR has more walks (9) than RBIs (8) or runs (8). He also has more Ks (42) than TB (35).

Every hitter from 3-9 is down this year in terms of power, and most of them by a substantial amount. I expect the Tigers to be very active in the Quentin/Thome market.

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The Tigers begin a 67 game swing through Texas (3) and Tampa Bay (4), against two clubs who are a combined 15 games over .500 at home. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 and have the league’s best record at 45-28; 17 games over .500. The slated Rangers pitchers are Grimm (a rookie), Darvish and Oswalt, the recent signing who looked spectacular in his first game back this season. The Tigers are countering with Porcello/TBDSmyly/TBDFister. This could be a long series. I’m worried about Porcello, nervous about Smyly, and cautiously optimistic about Fister.

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A few notes:

– Tigers are looking at Matt Garza (see ya Porcello?) and Jed Lowrie (to play 2B)
– The MLive Detroit Tigers iPhone app is worth a download (it’s free)

Tonight’s Lineup will be Posted Later:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Laird, C
9. Santiago, 2B

33-35, 3rd place, 3 games behind Cle.

The Jacob Turner Experience 2012 kicks off this afternoon. Smyly has been pitching well and looks to be ready for his next start, so this is likely just a spot start (or could it be an audition?). Though Turner had a great ERA at Lakeland (1.66) and a good one in Toledo (3.43), his lack of strikeouts (44 in 63 2/3) and high walk rate (4.07 at Toledo) are cause for concern. The Cardinals are one of the most free-swinging teams in the league (they swing at more first pitches than the Tigers), so that should help. But we should have a pretty well rested pen (other than Valverde – who is not available) should Turner get into any trouble. Turner has been awful at Comerica in his young career, posting an 8.53 ERA over three starts.

The Tigers need to win today to increase their series streak to 4.

A few notes:

– Avila up, Holaday down.
– Putkonen down with Turner’s call-up.
– Smyly is slated to throw three innings tonight in Toledo.
– No word on Laird’s hamstring, yet.
– Cabrera is 4-10 lifetime off of Lohse with 2 HR.

Today’s Could Berry Be the Everyday Left Fielder? Lineup is:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Boesch, DH
6. Raburn, 2B
7. Avila, C
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Kelly, RF

33-34, 3rd place, 2 games behind Cle (Jake Peavy says watch-out to his CWS teammates)

Justin Verlander was fantastic yesterday. Even though he walked more than he struck out for the first time since June of 2010, Verlander allowed 1 ER on 5 hits over 7 innings. There was that tense moment in the 7th when Berry’s two base error plated two runs, and then a walk loaded the bases, but JV responded with the one of the best sliders of his career to get out of the jam. Before Saturday, the Tigers had won only two games where they led start to finish, got a quality start, and the tying run did not come to the plate in the 9th. They have now won three in a row like that.

Kevin Goldstein of ESPN wrote an article last week (you’ll need Insider) where he asked 12 ML execs who they would pick if they needed a pitcher for just one start. JV dominated the vote totals with 7 votes. The next highest was two.

Verlander was the runaway winner, but some might be surprised to see him get just more than half the votes. “He just walks to the mound like he owns it,” said an American League scouting official. “You’re talking about 95-100 mph to both sides of the plate, a hellacious curveball and a plus change.”

 A National League scout agreed, while focusing on the thought of just one game. “He’s capable of no-hitting anyone at any time, in any place,” said the talent evaluator. “Every time you see him you wonder if you’re going to see something special.”

 A National League front office member also focused on the one-game aspect but took a different angle. “Verlander has been the most consistent when it comes to maintaining plus-plus stuff deep into games, which for me is really what you ask for when looking for the best player to start one game,” the front office member said.

I love the line about “owning the mound.”

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Could there be trouble brewing in the clubhouse? Leyland came out yesterday and said that the team needs more “dirtbags”, Leyland’s affectionate term for players scrappy players. In truth, these guys usually have little major league value and Leyland uses their “dirtbag” role to justify playing them well beyond their expiration date. At the same time Leyland mentioned that his team needs to play with a “mean streak.” I don’t think he intended for them to go Laimbeer on anyone, but rather dive, slide and hustle. But Prince Fielder didn’t respond too well to the comment, saying that he doesn’t have time for that.

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The Tigers have been playing their best ball since the beginning of the season, and their playoff chances are looking better every day. That said, their schedule is only going to get tougher, as only 19 games of the remaining 96 are against teams under .500. They still have 31 games against the White Sox, Rangers, Angels, Yankees and Rays. 10 of those are against CWS and I’m guessing that Cle is going to falter, so those 10 against the White Sox could decide the division. Let’s not forget that the Tigers have only finished above .500 post All Star break once under Smokey.

Injury notes:

– Smyly is slated to throw three innings in Toledo tomorrow night.
– Valverde is going to rest his sore wrist for 3-4 games.

A few other notes:

– The Tigers have not been shutout in 135 games, the longest streak in club history.
– The Tigers have signed undrafted first baseman Andrew Allen, son of Rod Allen. I see you son.
– Keep an eye out for 21 year old reliever Bruce Rondon, as he was just promoted to Erie.
– Phil Coke drenched a few fans last night. Not everyone was pleased. Though those sitting next to Ashley may have been.

Tonight’s Series Clinching Does Smokey Know that this is the Same Lineup as Last Night Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Laird, C

32-34, 3rd place, 2.5 games back (picked up 1.5 games since the last DTW post)

Your Detroit Tigers have scrambled to win 3 straight series (after losing the opener in each), and are 7-3 over their past 10 games. The Cinci series was a nice one as they look to be the cream of the crop in the NL Central, but the Rockies and Cubs series were sweep-able. So let’s not get too excited, but hey, you have to win series, and hopefully the boys are getting used to doing that.

The Tigers look to continue their interleague dominance (.650 since 2006, 2nd best in the majors) against our old foes the Cardinals. That’s gonna be a tough task against Cardinals phenom Lance Lynn. In his first year as a starter, Lynn is 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA and a.209 BAA. His success has been a little perplexing, as he had control issues in the minors, but his K rates have always been good. In fact – he’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning in his big league career. So maybe it’s just a matter of batters getting used to him. He’s also been the benefit of 7.27 runs per game this year, which I don’t expect to happen against JV. Lynn throws a low  to mid 90s fastball and has a cut short curve. 8 of his 22 ER allowed his year have come in the 2nd.

JV was back to his dominating self last time out (as opposed to just above average in the few starts prior) allowing only 2 ER and 5 H over 8 IPs against the Cubs last week. A win today and JV will have his 114th W as a Tigers’ starter, tying him for 14th with Virgil Trucks.

Injury Update:

– Dotel back from the DL, Weber optioned down.
– Avila went 0-2 last night, his 15 days are up on Thursday.

A few notes:

– Don’t forget to vote 25 times for your Tigers on the All Star Ballot. Fielder is in the lead at 1B, Miggy will need some help if he’s going to start at 2nd.
– Brad Eldred’s AAA power got him a ticket to Japan. Good luck Brad, fun getting to know you.
– Drew Smyly’s ebola seems to be healed.
– Berry with another start, Boesch batting 6th against the righty.

Today’s Let’s Win an Opener Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Laird, C

29-33, 3rd place, 5 games back.

On a night when the Tigers’ big three bats were a combined 2-14 with 1 R and 0 RBI, the Tigers still plated 8 runners and won comfortably, for a change.

Since being reinserted into the 2 hole (this includes a PH appearance), Boesch is 12-22 with 2 HR, and has seen his average rise from .227 to .252. I don’t think that Boesch’s streak has anything to do with Smokey moving him back up in the order, but rather should be attributed to the normal peaks and valleys of a season. Boesch has been streaky in the past, so let’ see how much we can get out of him during this one.

Peralta, on the other hand, seems to be on the path towards career averages, which would be welcomed. He’s hitting .387 over his last 10 and has raised his average from .239 to .267.

In light of the hitting from the supporting cast, I think the real story over the past few weeks is the bullpen. Tigers relievers are posting a 2.25 ERA and a .219 BAA over the past 25 games. Here are the last five outings for each of the relievers:

– Below – 3.00 ERA, 6 IP, 3 H
– Benoit – 0.00 ERA, 5.1 IP, 6 k
– Coke – 3.86 ERA, 4.2 IP, 9 k
– Marte – 3.38 ERA, 10.2 IP, 10 K
– Putkonen (not so good, but it was 3 weeks ago)
– Valverde – 0.00 ERA, 5 IP, 3 saves
– Villareal – 2.45 ERA, 7.1 IP, 9 K

And we’re going to add Al AlB to that in a few months? If the bats can just pick up, we’re going to be alright.

Today’s Notes:

– Ryan Raburn is back after hammering Triple-A pitching to the tune of .194 with 1 HR. Smyly to the DL.
– Are the Tigers looking at Carlos Quentin? He’d be an upgrade in LF over DY.

Today’s Series Winning There is Zero Justification for Batting Rayburn Ahead of Laird Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Raburn, 2B
8. Laird, C
9. Verlander, P

28-33, 3rd place, 6 games behind CWS.

Last night’s loss was as ugly as they come.  While replays may show that the umps blew both calls, the calls should have never been blowable, as both of the plays were routine for a major league shortstop. Routine. Good throws and they calls are no doubters. Moreover, the below average range off the mound and at 3B led to an IF hit that could have ended the inning. Oh yeah, and if Phil Coke doesn’t walk a guy (he walked 2 last night, compared to 1 in his previous 9 outings), then the run never scores. So really the bad calls exacerbated the Tigers more prominent problems, and demonstrate the fine W-L line that the Tigers are walking every night. We simply do not have the luxury to make mistakes, because our bats can’t atone for them, and our gloves can’t prevent runs. Is it 2008 all over again?

Porcello enters tonight with no where to go but up. He’s 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA over his last six starts. He hasn’t pitched into the 7th since May 6th, and if that happens tonight, it’s because we’re up by 10. Porcello is a titan at the plate (by Tigers standards), batting .250 with 2 RBI in 12 official ABs. No word on whether he can play second base or make an infield throw. Porcello doesn’t walk many, and the Cubs don’t hit the ball all that hard. So if we can make a few plays in the field, this match-up looks pretty favorable for the boys.

A few notes:

– The WSJ’s accuscore picked the Cubs to win 6.3 to 3.9. The CUBS!
– Omir Santos is now a Rockie Rocky member of the Colorado Rockies organization.
– Apparently Drew Smyly has been sidelined by “just a little Ebola.” (not for weak stomachs)
– A sweep by the Cubs and Leyland loses the benefit of the round (currently 1,614 and 1,616 = .49969).

Tonight’s We Had Better Win Lineup or Else We’ll Probably Lose the Series to the Cubs:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Laird, C
8. Santiago, 2B
9. Porcello, P

28-32, 3rd place, 5 games behind CWS.

Well, the tone of what I planned on posting changed pretty significantly around the 8th inning on Sunday night, and the Tigers waggle into Wrigley after taking a series in Cinci. Short on time today, but a few notes:

– Don’t Ask Dotel to the DL with elbow inflammation, Putkonen back up.
– That makes 7 on the DL, right now. The Tigers have already used 40 players this season, which has DD scrambling to figure out 40 man roster rules.
– Valverde doesn’t throw a spitball, he just sweats a lot.

Papa Peralta is tonight’s player of the game, as he goes deep twice for each of his new twin girls, Gabriela and Laina.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF (Leyland thinks the time in left will get him going; I don’t)
6. Peralta, SS
7.  Laird, C
8. Worth, 2B
9. Mad Max, Flamethrower

25-31, 3rd place (barely), 6 games back.

That’s 0-5 against those star laden Indians this season. But who is beating Jeanmar Gomez this year anyway?

So what can we do with this lineup? (AJax is starting a rehab stint today, he should be back on Saturday.) Really, not much. We could sit Boesch, who has become the latest Rabinge at the plate, and his error yesterday on a routine fly ball is only exacerbating this situation. So to remedy that, Smokey moved him up in the lineup for today’s game. Berry should be a fixture in RF or LF until Raburn has a multi-hit game in Toledo and Smokey gets a cablegram about it at his bunker underneath  Kinsel’s. Thus, we’re stuck with Boesch/Kelly as the 3rd OFer, and Santiago/Worth at 2B.

The Tigers have to figure out a way to start hitting. As Buster Olney pointed out in gruesome detail (you need Insider), the Tigers rank in the bottom half (and mostly towards the very bottom) defensively at every position save CF and C. The only way out of this mess to for them to slug their way out of it. Because the defense has been so bad, a Toledo carousel can’t hurt, maybe we can uncover something. But if Peralta, Avila and Young don’t start hitting soon, there really will be no way out of this.

Then there is also the issue of the mental breakdowns. Bad errors, poor decisions and a lack of fundamentals have really been the difference between poor range and a recurring clown show. The Indians, who are likely less talented than the Tigers, do the little things right. That’s a reflection of coaching. Not other way around it.

There’s also been much written in the comments here regarding plate discipline and swing counts. In my mind, that’s been an issue here for years and I think that the organizational philosophy is a swing at your pitch, no matter what the count; as opposed to the work the pitcher philosophies in Boston, NY and the like. Like most of you, I prefer the patient approach, but I don’t expect the at bats to change anytime soon. Not until DD and JL are long gone.

A few notes:

– The draft is over, at least someone inside the organization is happy.
– AJax should start in Toledo tonight.
– Today’s game should be G.R.E.A.T., let’s hope that the play on the field reinforces the message on the stands.

Only takes one win to start a streak.

Your Tigers Split Squad Lineup Today Is:

1. Berry, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, LF
8. Worth, 2B
9. Holaday, C

25-30, 3rd place, 6 games behind CWS.

Been a pretty frustrating run as of late, but  here are a few noteworthy items.

– Avila to the DL, Bryan Holaday up from AAA (and starting!); Santos down.

– AJax took a few swings in BP today. It’s been three weeks since he last played. And I don’t think that taking a few swings means he’s coming back anytime soon.

– Jose Ortega was also called up from AAA, look for him to come on in a 2 on, 1 out, up by 1 situation in the 7th tonight.

– Jurickson Profar tops the list of a few 2B trade prospects to dream about (Profar would move from SS).

Tonight’s Could This Be Our First Win Of The Season Against Cleveland? Lineup:

1. Berry, CF
2. Santiago, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Boesch, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Kelly, LF
9. Holaday, C

25-29, 3rd place, 6 games back.

Well, here we sit, 1/3 of the way through the season, and in third place. The season has been a great disappointment for just about everyone so far, save maybe Quentin Berry. If you’re projecting stats over the final 2/3 of the season, Cabby would end up with 33 HR and 132 RBIs (sounds about right), Fielder with 27 HR and 105 RBIs (a little low), and no one else with more than 15 HRs or 60 RBIs. This last point really highlights the Tigers’ woes thus far, as no one else is hitting. Jackson’s 17 XBH have contributed to only 17 RBIs, and Young, Peralta and Boesch have woeful OPS’s dwarfed by the current likes of Berry and Laird.

The pitching hasn’t been much better (10th in ERA – 4.24, T9th in WHIP – 1.35), and Valverde and Scherzer have been downright awful. Valverde can’t find the strike zone posting 15 walks in 21+ innings, to go along with 2 HB for an ugly 1.59 WHIP. As I’ve mentioned before, Scherzer is getting pummeled by the BABIP gremlin, so while he’ll likely get better, Valverde’s grip on the closer’s role is hopefully loose, at best.

As far as fixing the above…the Tigers simply need to play better. The defense is what it is, though Berry will help the OF significantly. I think the pitching will be fine with Marte up and Scherzer getting better (so I hope); but the bats need to get going. Past performance indicates that they will – even if Peralta, Young and Avila can just be average players, we’ll score more runs. Maybe VMart in the dugout will spark the team a bit.

A few notes:

– Nick Castellanos was promoted to AA Erie today, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be up here anytime soon. Castellanos is a 3B, and if he’s going to play for the Tigers, it will likely be in LF. Let’s see if he starts to log some innings in LF.

– The Tigers have drafted two HS pitchers thus far in the amateur draft, including Jake Thompson who’s about 15 miles east of me right now (if he’s home).

– Matt Young is up, and starting in LF tonight, batting second like everyone should in their season debut.

– Don’t forget to vote for your Tigers for the All Star game.

– Very little on AJax as of late, which has me very concerned.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Quintin Berry, CF
2. Matt Young, LF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, DH
6. Alex Avila, C
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Brennan Boesch, RF
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

23-27, 3rd place, 5.5 games behind CWS (who have won 8 in a row).

Short and sweet for the Win.

1. Berry, CF
2. Boesch, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH (Maybe Verlander should DH)
6. Avila, C
7. Peralta, SS
8. Kelly, LF
9. Worth, 2B

23-26, 3rd place, 5 games behind Cle.

The Boston Red Sox, who started the season 0-3 after being swept by the Tigers, crept above .500 for the first time all year after yesterday’s 6-3 victory. JV had his worst outing since May 2011, allowing 5 ER in 6 IPs. He’s now 0-2 following a Tigers loss after a remarkable 12-0 run in his previous 13 games following a loss. I know that things look bleak, and it’s fashionable to write the Tigers off, but here are a few reasons why I’m not going to do so just yet:

1) Fielder and Cabrera are not hitting up to their standards, but they will. Both have below career average walk and slugging rates. Superstars do not forget how to hit. They alone are going to win several ball games individually, and jointly.

2) Scherzer will get better. His stuff is too good, and his K rate suggests that he should be significantly better. Moreover, his BABIP is .394, which is ridiculous, even with our infield. That number will come down.

3) We can’t get any worse at DH or 2B. I haven’t looked at WARP, but I’m pretty sure that we are deep into the negatives for both of those positions. The OPS+ for DH is 50, and for 2B is 46. It may take a few weeks to find better players, but DD knows that Delmon Young and Santiago / Worth are not viable solutions for DH and 2B. The key is that we just need better players. Laird, Berry, etc. Even if they can get to an OPS+ of 75, we’ll be fine.

4) The bullpen is coming around. Villareal, Dotel, Coke, Benoit and Valverde should get it done most nights.

Drew Smyly on the hill tonight, he’s come down to earth a bit after his incredible start. Smyly hasn’t pitched past the 5th in any of his last 3 starts.

A few notes:

– Raburn down, Santos up. Kind of anti-climatic. Look for Laird/Avila to get more ABs at DH. Santos was hitting .310 with 9 RBIs in 27 games at Toledo.

– Fister to the 15 day DL again with that same oblique strain.

– Ordonez will announce his retirement during a pregame ceremony on Sunday.

– Leyland is back to .500 for his career, 1,611 up, 1,611 down.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Quintin Berry, CF
2. Danny Worth, 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B
4. Prince Fielder, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Brennan Boesch, RF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Gerald Laird, DH