All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Slimmed Down Miggy and Other News

Alex Avila is reporting that Miggy is “20-25” lbs lighter.  Can you tell (images)?

Tom Gage breaks down the 40 man here.  They are at 24 signed after yesterday.

Kate Upton is moonlighting as a spokesmodel for MLB2K12. See JV getting just a tip or two here.

Comerica is getting a face lift.  Look for lots of Prince Fielder slow jog shots on the new scoreboard.

And then there is Maggs.  He has made it known recently that he will only sign a major league deal for 2012, leading to speculation that his playing days may be over.  Freep reported a few days ago that if he doesn’t return to the bigs, he will take an ownership stake in the Caribes de Anzoátegui, a Venezuelan winter league team where he’s curiously been listed on the roster since 2004.

DTW News and Notes

Let’s start with what remains the most pressing question other than Why is Brandon Inge still a Tiger? and that is, who will be pitching on April 15th in the D against the Pale Hose? Due to a silly opening weekend where the Tigers play 3 games in 5 days, I’m guessing that April 15th will be the first day for the 5th spot in the rotation.  Future rotation guys Turner or Oliver?  Maybe Duane Below gets a shot at starting, or Adam Wilk.  Or could it be Drew Smyly?  (pronounced “smy-ly”)  DD is all smiles these days and everyone’s got a shot.

The Tigers’ international scouts are working overtime these days as they remain in the running for Cespedes while finding time to ink a 16 year old Dominican for $280k.

Scott Boras called the Tigers “smart” and said the organization’s intellect was “ahead of the curve.”  That’s a lot like the IRS sending you a thank you note which says “thanks for being a good citizen.”

The new Verlander led MLB2k12 commercial is out, and it’s awful.  Never mind the “perfect game” dialogue while the screen shows two runners on.

Talking Baseball

DTW was approached recently with the perfect Valentine’s Day gift…(for you, not her).

Ed Randall is a long time Yankees (booooooo) sportswriter and reporter.  He writes a popular baseball blog called Talking Baseball.  During his time he’s interviewed a bevy of baseball personalities, including quite a few Tigers (yaaaaaaaaaaay).  Recently, he put his interviews onto DVDs and the guys from Talking Baseball are offering a Tigers DVD which includes lengthy interviews with Sparky Anderson, Travis Fryman, Jack Morris, and Ernie Harwell.  The DVDs are priced at $15, but if you’ll enter in TBCODEDT as your discount code, they are yours for the low price of $9.99.  Not to mention that 10% of the purchase goes to the reimburse billfer for hosting costs fund.  Order here.

Talking Baseball has offered to send us a free set for our perusal, so if someone out there will commit to watching all of them in earnest and writing a review of each interview for the blog, I’ll ask them to send it to you.  First one to post interest in the comments sections wins.  I’ll email you offline.

I’ve seen the Ernie Harwell interview, and it’s worth the price of admission on its own.  At one point in the interview Ernie talks about the importance of dead air.  I love the sounds of the ballpark in the background and no one was better than Ernie at letting those sounds paint the picture for us listeners.  So great to hear his voice.

We’re also going to reach out to Ed before the first Yankees series for some inside info on the competition.  So check out the links and then leave a hint inside your wife’s copy of Good Housekeeping or Popular Mechanics.  Only 11 shopping days left.

The Point is to Win

Not to make money.

The fallout from the Prince Fielder bomb has been full of back row Joes claiming that this was a terrible signing by the Tigers and forecasting that the Tigers will rue the day they set up Prince Fielder’s off-springs’ off-springs for life.  The fatal flaw that I find with these numbers-based analysts is the assumption that the Tigers are concerned about winning later.

Actually, I see four key assumptions, any of which, if untrue, make the criticisms irrelevant.

1) That Management is concerned with the payroll in 2016-2020.  There is no doubt that the Fielder contract will likely prove to be imprudent during the last 4 years of the deal.  But maybe management does not care.  Dombrowski has made it clear that the Tigers are trying to win right now.  Fielder gives them the best chance to do that, fielding issues be damned (did you know that the Yankees teams of the 2000s had some of the worst infields in the history of the play-by-play era (1951 – )?…and all they did was win 4 pennants and 2 World Series titles).  This is a five year deal, where the Tigers will happen to keep the player for the final four.

Or, there is always possibility of trading Fielder if his salary becomes an unbearable burden. The Rangers did it with ARod and they came out okay.

To be honest, I’m sure that management does care (though to what extent?  I mean, if DD doesn’t win a WS, he probably won’t be here in 5 years, so what does he care?…and if he does, he will have won a WS within the last 5 years, so what does he care?) about financial repercussions in the last half of this decade, but that to-do is well, well below many others on a list which I imagine begins with “Win a World Series.”  Mike Illitch is now 82 years old and it looks like he has made winning a WS his main MO.  But thank you Mike for making $5 Hot-N-Ready’s your last main MO.  I’m serious.

2) That Fielder could have been signed for less.  Someone was going to sign Fielder.  And I can not imagine any scenario where he was signed for less than 6 years, and likely not less than 8.  In fact, it’s likely the 9 years, not the annual salary, which lured Fielder to Detroit like a free donuts sign.  I watched one of the guys on MLB Network the night of the deal do a long piece on WAR and how much the Tigers would pay per Fielder’s win during the last half of the deal.  Sure, I get the numbers (more below), and I understand why Fielder is likely to decline precipitously from his MVP caliber production in a few years.  But what many have failed to address is the impossibility of getting Fielder now for a shorter contract.  And if assumption #3 below is not true, then the dollar cost per win is irrelevant.

3) That the Tigers are Mike Illitch wants to make money on an annual basis.  Despite winning the NBA title, and enjoying the accompanying extra gate revenues and apparel sales, the Dallas Mavericks lost $3.9M last year, and Cuban claims that the Mavs have made money in only 2 out of the 11 seasons that he has owned the team.  Sure, the value of the Mavs franchise is increasing, but using a purchase price of $285M, and a Forbes current value of $497M, that’s a return of 5%.  Hardly worth it taking into account the annual losses and the opportunity cost of Cuban’s capital, though I’m sure his accountants find a good spot for the losses.

Mike Illitch bought the Tigers in ’92 for $82M.  Forbes valued the franchise at $385M last year, which provides a nice 8% return for Illitch, though there have been several, if not mostly, money losing seasons.  But that’s the point, Mr. I doesn’t care.  He wants to win, he wants to win now, and we’re lucky to have him as the Tigers owner.

4) That the Tigers would have spent the money elsewhere.  The sharpest criticism seems to come from WAR calculations.  The accepted salary per marginal win around MLB is roughly $4M. Thus, at ~$24M per year, the Tigers need Fielder to come in with a WAR of 6 each year. Something he’s done only once in his career.  But, this assumes that the Tigers are using their dollars to buy marginal wins.  They aren’t.  They are simply buying wins, irrespective of a value they could have bought elsewhere.

To no one’s surprise, Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs wrote a thoughtful and informative piece shortly after the signing.  But I did take exception to the point he made at the end which suggested that the Tigers had to “vastly overpay” to get Fielder.  Vastly overpay according to whom?  Cameron operates in a world where FanGraphs stats set player values, but that’s simply not the case.  Pundits, bloggers and bar economists argue all the time what the right values are. But here’s what I think – REAL LIFE TRANSACTIONS SET VALUES FOR SUPERSTARS.   While I do believe that lesser tier players with paltry demand get offers based on numbers promulgated by the likes of FanGraphs, this is not the case for players who are in high demand. When resources are scarce, price goes up.  Prince Fielder represents the scarcest of resources. Thus, the reality of it is that Fielder was worth what a team was willing to pay him.  To get Fielder now, a long-term, expensive deal, was the price.  And there were at least 2 serious other suitors, if not more.  It’s not that the Tigers overpaid, but rather the Rangers and Nationals under bid.  And in light of the Pujols deal, the Fielder deal was spot on, maybe even a bargain.  I wish someone would develop a super-star factor and build that into their player value calculations.

Cameron also surmised that the Tigers should have spent the $214M on CJ Wilson and Jose Reyes instead of on Fielder.  Again, I get that Cameron has to stick to his guns, but not a single person even thought about the Tigers + CJ Wilson until Cameron used CJ because the numbers fit his point.

A final note about the infield – I don’t believe for a minute that Cabrera will be the everyday third baseman.  Sure, he’s likely to take more starts there than anyone else, but with the way that Leyland tinkers with his lineups, I expect Cabrera to start about 60 games at 3B, 50 games at 1B, 40 games at DH, and a handful in RF.  I think we’ll see Inge at 3B when Fister and Porcello start, and lots of late inning substitutions.  Remember, when Cabrera does start at 3rd, this will have a greatly desired consequence of keeping Brandon Inge out of the line-up, and further amplify the Fielder run production benefit.

VMart Likely Out for the Year

VMart managed to tear his ACL in off-season workouts…he’s likely out for the year.

Just sat in on the DD conf call (thanks billfer), DD didn’t say anything too unexpected.  They just found out over the last few days when VMart called Kevin Rand to tell him about a knee injury. There is a chance that he might be back later in the season.  At this point in time, DD is planning on just a short-term replacement, but no candidates as of yet.

Prince Fielder anyone?

More to come.

DTW News and Notes

A few notes amid the clearing bowl fog and settling NFL storm.

– JV will be on Conan tomorrow night.

– Mario Impemba won the Michigan Sportscaster of the Year award today.  This should look nice on his mantle next to his “World’s Most Patient Man” and “Least Likely to Point Out Grammatical/Journalistic/Fact” awards given out by Kevin in Dallas.  Just kidding…I see you RA.

– Barry Larkin was voted into the HoF yesterday.  Jack Morris is inching closer, garnering 67% of the votes yesterday.  I saw this on FreepMorris received a higher percentage of voters than Boston’s Jim Rice and Minnesota’s Bert Blyleven did two years before their respective elections to Cooperstown.

– The Tigers quietly signed Eric Patterson to a Minor League contract last Friday, supposedly closing out the 2B prospects.  Uh….

– Here’s your obligatory Kerry Wood rumor.  Quick prayer for a pass.  My favorite part about the articles is the acknowledgement of a $1.5M tag for Wood last year, and then a suggestion that the Tigers offer Wood $4M for 2012.

Winding Down 2011

Hello all – hopefully everyone is having a great holiday season and your bowl picks are hitting at better than 55%.  Not too much today, just a few notes in case you missed them over the past week or so.  (and thanks to a tip from Billfer I think we got a workaround on the rotator)

– Carlos Quentin is headed to San Diego.

– JV will be the cover boy for MLB 2k12 – check out the image here.

– For those of us who thought the Tigers would be content to hand Turner the 5th starter slot, we were wrong.  To begin, (for some reason,) the Braves may covet Delmon Young, and the Tigers are trying to leverage that into Jair Jurrjens.  Further, the Tigers are in hot pursuit of Matt Garza according to multiple sources.  (stay tuned on this story)

– Jackson (32), Avila (18) and Porcello (37) made Keith Law’s very narrow and very un-newsworthy list of top 50 players 25 and under (you need insider).

– Great post on Fangraphs yesterday discussing the FA pitchers who signed 1 year deals before spring training last year, and compared their seasons.

Happy New Year everyone!

 

2011 Winter Meetings

Your Winter Meetings thread.  I’ll update when I can, but I figure we’ll let the comments take care of the breaking news.

Here’s what we already know – Jose Reyes is taking his talents to South Beach.  Did you know that they are the “Miami Marlins” now?  Isn’t that Jamie Foxx’s team in Any Given Sunday? Rumor is that Buehrle could be next.  It’s about time for the Marlins to buy another WS.  Hey, whatever works.  Though I’m not sure if anyone can afford Reyes, Buehrle and Pujols.

Uhhhh, no thanks.

ESPN free agent tracker here.

 

 

 

Hot Stove Talk, Part 3

I’m gonna get to the latest in A-Ram and others tomorrow (hopefully), but I wanted to put up a quick note about the Red Sox job.  Bobby Valentine beat out Gene Lamont, much to the chagrin of everyone reading this post, Paws, and the Tigers official scorer.

Maicer Izturis?  So who is on the block?  Raburn or Kelly?  And what’s wrong with Ramon Santiago?

Octavio Dotel to the pen?  I’m in.

Mark Buehrle as the 5th…?  I just don’t think there is room for him, unless Porcello is about to be dealt.  Honestly, I don’t get the Buehrle talk.  DD wouldn’t Edwin Jackson Max Scherzer, would he?

– Carlos Guillen to the Marlins?  Seems like a decent fit.

Justin Verlander for (edit: IS) MVP

Vote is coming out today at 2pm, and MLB.tv will have live coverage beginning at 1:30pm eastern.

Rob Neyer would vote Jacob Ellsbury #1 and JV 5th.  (When did Neyer move to SBNation from ESPN.com?  When did SBNation become a legitimate sports news source?)

Buster Olney writes that JV will get the most first place votes in a year with several deserving candidates, but ultimately will lose because of not enough electoral votes.

The local guys (Detroit News, Freep) seem to think that the pitcher vs. batter philosophical debate will ultimately cost JV the award.

I remain hopeful…

 

Update

JV won with 13 out of 28 first place votes, and 280 points overall.  Ellsbury had 242 points, and Batista was third with 231.  Granderson and Cabby rounded out the top 5.