All posts by Kevin in Dallas

2011 Season, Spring Training

Uh-Oh…Cabrera arrested again for a DUI

February 17, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 28 Comments

(photo from Detroit Free Press online)

– Here’s the story in the Freep. And ESPN.com. As you would imagine, it’s pretty much everywhere. This story from an outlet in Florida, quotes Cabrera as saying “I’m going to (expletive) kill him” when asked who he was with.

I think this is much deeper than a ballplayer having too good of a time and making a poor decision. Let’s see how the team and front office react. I think the way the Rangers handled the Ron Washington cocaine admission was a catalyst for their success. We’ll need something like that.

2011 Season, Spring Training

Pitchers and Catchers

February 14, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 7 Comments

Happy Pitchers and Catchers everyone.

A few things that I’m looking for in spring training:

1) 2B, whose job it is anyway? By all accounts, Carlos Guillen is our 2B, but he won’t be ready until mid April. So Willy Rhymes and Scott Sizemore will be splitting duties in the interim. What happens if one of them plays lights out this spring? Does Guillen still have the job when he gets back? Or could he be on the trading block?

2) Who will be our everyday left-fielder? Right now, it’s a competition between Raburn and Boesch. But if both play well, what’s wrong with giving Raburn some ABs at 2B? I think we can all agree that 1st half of 2010 Boesch + Raburn at 2B would be a significant boost to our lineup. I’m guessing that we start the season with a Raburn/Boesch platoon in left, with Raburn spelling other positions when Boesch starts. I feel strongly about getting Raburn 550+ ABs this year.

To further this discussion, assuming Boesch is more than a 4A player, we are really in a good position to deal with our aging vets. I think we all expect Maggs and Martinez to get injured at some point in the season (hopefully for not too long), so having the likes of Guillen and Boesch to fill those at bats doesn’t sound too bad. And where does Don Kelly fit in?

3) Does Coke have the stamina to be a starter? He only threw 25+ pitches in a game three times last year. If you’ll recall, he started the final game of 2010, and was promptly chased after 1 2/3. I love the idea of having a lefty at the back of the rotation, but he’ll need some serious work to get up to 80+ pitches by April.

4) Who else can be an effective starter? The boys will likely need 30-40 starts from guys not currently contemplated to be in the rotation. I’m pretty sure we can predict what we’ll get 1-3. What can Penny bring? And after Coke, is Oliver ready to fill in? Interestingly enough, Rotoworld lists Brayan Villarreal as #6 on our depth charts.

5) Is Joaquin Benoit worth $5.5M? That’s a heck of a lot for a setup man with only 1 great season behind him. Unfortunately, I don’t see spring training as an effective medium for measuring relief pitchers. So it will be a while before I’m ready to answer this one. Remember how good Valverde looked in April/May/June before he forgot where the strike zone was.

6) How does Maggs’ ankle look? We’ll need on the field reports from those of you headed out to Lakeland.

What else are you looking for during spring training? What are your thoughts on the LF and 2B carousel?

2011 Season, Trade Rumors

The Michael Young Trade That’s Not Going to Happen (to any team)

February 12, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 7 Comments

For a guy who has widely been regarded as the “face of the franchise” for so long, the Rangers sure have put Michael Young through a lot.

First, in 2004, coming off of a superb defensive year at 2B, the Rangers asked Young to move to SS in order to make room for Alfonso Soriano, who was a 2B equivalent of Roger Dorn. Young said no, then relented when Rangers’ brass ignored his bluff. He went on to make the AS team at 2B for five years in a row, and won a Gold Glove in 2008. I’m not sure how he did, but remember that Derek Jeter’s living room is full of Gold Gloves.

But that wasn’t good enough for the Rangers, so in 2009, they asked him to move to 3B to make room for the fielding wizardry of Elvis Andrus. (Side note, Andrus makes at least one play every game that is worth the price of admission. Kid is sick.) Young balked and asked for a trade over the winter. He then rescinded that request and agreed to move to 3B. He again made the All Star team, this time as a third basemen, in 2009 and had a tremendous year at the plate.

Now, only two years removed from that position swap, the Rangers have asked Young to move again, to DH, in order to make room for Adrian Beltre. It’s a tough call PR wise based on what Young has done and meant to the Rangers over the years, but it’s an easy call when you look at the numbers.

Thus, as a result, Young put himself on the trading block. He began with a list of 8 potential suitors, but by all accounts he’ll go anywhere with a decent chance to win and an open infield position.

So how about a swap for Carlos Guillen? The Rangers could use a left handed DH/utility guy/fourth outfielder, and their salaries are almost a wash. They are roughly the same age (Young is a year younger), and are entering the twilights of their respective careers. (I’m sure there would be some PsTBNL in there, but you get my drift.)

I gotta admit, I was at first intrigued by the possibility of Young playing 2B for the Tigers. It’s a big hole for us, and one that he could fill well. Michael Young was above league average defensively at 2B, and his Placido Polanco type bat (with a lot more pop), would do well in the two hole. From a salary perspective, Young is owed $16M, $16M and $16M, but when you consider that Carlos Guillen is going to get paid $13M in 2011, it’s easy to think that the Rangers could give some cash to fill the 2012 and 2013 voids. Moreover, Young has played in 155+ games in 8/9 seasons, with the low being 134 in 2009 (yes, that’s 155!). Guillen, on the other hand, has only played in 134+ games 3 times in his 7 years with the Tigers.

On the other hand, the deeper I dug, the less sense it made. Not because Guillen is the answer, but because Young is no longer a great player. His career OPS+ is 105 (Guillen’s is 111), and Young’s is only that high because of his tremendous 2005 and 2009 seasons. Without those years, he’s a career 99 as a regular. Moreover, his range factor relative to the league has been abysmal over the past two years (and was a serious source of concern following game 1 of the ALCS, and game 1 of the World Series). Finally, his 2011 salary would be easy for me to swallow based on Guillen’s, but 2012 and 2013 would be virtually impossible years for Young to perform up to salary expectations.

And, I’ll give you that I’m intrigued to see what Sizemore/Rhymes can do. Not that I saw much out of them last year, but they are young and cheap.

But I still feel for Michael Young. Across the phone lines and newsstands, no one is coming to his defense. Literally, no one. Well, except for this kid. For years and years he was lauded as the ultimate team player, and the consummate professional. His trade demands in 2009 struck a chord, and now it looks like his suspect defense and bloated salary have caught up to him. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a nice player, but not $48M over 3 years nice.

Anyway, now it looks like there are no takers around the league. Despite strong interest from Colorado and some from the Angels, word around here is that Young will likely be with the Rangers through Spring Training. The way that some of this has played out in the media has been a sports editor’s dream. Check out the quotes from Michael Young here, and the management’s innuendos here. I mean, did Daniels basically say that trading Young would upgrade his team? It’s too bad. Young doesn’t want to be here. The Rangers don’t want him. Seems like someone out there could find a way to make this work. Though I don’t think Alfonso Soriano is the answer.

Pitchers and Catchers, three days.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 2.9.11

February 10, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 8 Comments

– Can you play 2B? GIve it a shot.

– At least someone thinks 2010 1st half Brennan Boesch is the real BB.

– Check out this interview with Patrick Leyland, son of Ol’ Smokey. I really enjoyed the part about Paws being a better manager than JL (it may have been removed by the time you get to it).

– Henning’s column title today caught my eye – the Tigers need a big bat? I’m pretty sure the boys are aware of several other pressing needs. But a full read reveals that Henning is looking for one of the guys we already have to step up.

– I’m really, really into this Michael Young thing. Full post on him coming tomorrow.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 2.2.11

February 2, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 2 Comments

– Dombrowski stated yesterday that neither Bondo nor Vlad Guerrero would be pursued any further (if they were at all). Looks like Bondo is going to end up in…Cleveland, according to MLB.com.

– Lynn Henning put together his list of the top 50 prospects within the organizations. Jacob Turner is #1.

– The 2011 predictions are starting to roll in, and while most outlets think the Central will be a tight race, most of them have the Tigers losing out to the White Sox and Twins.

– Great article on Fangraphs last week discussing Galarraga and his (slim) chances of success in the NL.

– FYI – Don Kelly and Brad Thomas are out of options.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 1.28.11

January 28, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 3 Comments

– Keith Law wasn’t very complimentary of the Tigers’ farm system, ranking it 25th in the majors. (here’s the link to the ESPN article – you’ll need insider)

– Here’s a good (free) article on ESPN about the boys.

– Some spare on ESPN’s Page 2 writes that the Tigers lacked “bang for the buck” in 2010. Not news to anyone. That ESPN has a Page 2 is really the news here.

– What do you guys think about Galarraga and Jim Joyce co-authoring a book?

– Does Vlad do anything for you? Apparently the Orioles are doing a good job of driving down his value, offering $3M for a year. What about Bondo as a spot starter?

– If you haven’t seen it already, MLBTradeRumors really has the best free agent news around, despite their utter disregard for design.

2011 Season, Roster Management

Dombrowski is “confident” he’ll trade Galarraga (UPDATED: Trade)

January 19, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 15 Comments

According to the Freep, DD is actively shopping AG after he was bumped from the roster today to make room for Brad Penny.

Crazy, because they just signed him to a 1-year, $2.3M deal. Why sign him and then toss him like an old moldy bag of tangerines, you ask, Coleman? Here’s why.

No one wants to trade for a player headed to arbitration. Too much dirty work to deal with. Now the arb monster has been tamed. And the Tigers see value in him, which is why he’ll likely be traded in the next 10 days. I’m not opposed to believing that he was going to get closer to $3 or $4M in arbitration, and the two sides got together and worked this all out. If they can’t trade him, he’ll be sent to the minors after a swim through the waiver wire, though he might not last with sharks like the Yanks and Mets in the water. In fact, at least one source is saying that the Yanks will look into Armando. Could the Orioles be a potential suitor? Henning reminds us that the Tigers turned a similar position into Willie Hernandez on the eve of my 7th birthday.

But, as Lynn Henning astutely stole from my brain before I could write it, by signing him to a $2.3M contract, the Tigers made AG less likely to be claimed off of waivers. So if he can’t get traded, we may get to keep him on the squad, unprotected and all. Let’s not forget that former All-Stars Brad Penny and Brandon Webb just signed for $3M base + incentives (in Webb’s case, INCENTIVE$).

In the end, my guess is that DD and Ol’ Smokey like Turner/Oliver/etc., much better than whomever is carrying Boesch/Kelly/Thomas’ bags, and feel that an extra starter is the one expendable position. Honestly (and I know that I’ll get an essay from TSE here on why we should have traded AG & Fu Te Ni for the ghost of Doyle Alexander), I can’t say that I disagree. He’s a good guy and I wish him the best, though roster management is a funny thing, and it looks like DD covered his bases here.

Update:

Beck is reporting via Twitter that the Tigers send Galarraga to the Diamondbacks for Kevin Eichhorn and Ryan Robowski.

Eichhorn is an averaged sized RHP who was drafted out of HS in the 3rd round 2008. His Class A performance last year was underwhelming, but the kid is only 20. For now he’s a starter. He’s also the son of former Royal’s great Mark Eichhorn.

Robowski came out of Old Dominion in 2009 and was selected by the DBacks in the 16th round. He’s a little bigger than Eichhorn and throws from the left side out of the pen, but doesn’t project as high as Eichhorn does.

Flipping Galarraga for two young pitchers, a R and a L, seems like a good deal to me.

2011 Season, Minors

2010 Minor League Wrap, Part 2: Hitters (by Nick D)

January 17, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 3 Comments

This is the second of a two part series composed by DTW member Nick D. Look for Nick to cover the minors in detail in the upcoming season(s).

What follows is part 2 of 2 recapping the 2010 minor league season. I’ve ranked the following prospects based on scouting predictions and past performance in addition to the improvement shown over the course of last season. Please note that I no longer include Austin Jackson as a prospect for purposes of the minor league recap.

And now…. the hitting prospects 2010 recap:

1. Brennan Boesch, OF

(Understatement Alert) Brennan Boesch did not have a consistent 2010. His tremendous 1^st half, and implosion after the all-star break, have been well documented. However, when taken as a whole, he had a pretty solid rookie campaign. His.256/.320/.416 numbers were adequate. He also produced some power; hitting 14 home runs and producing 67 RBI. Frustratingly, 12 of those 14 homers, and 45 out of 67 RBI, came before July 1. Boesch has to work on his approach to hitting and find the mojo he had through June. As Jim Price frequently lamented, Boesch had too much working in the 1^st half to never find it again. If he finds a happy middle ground between his Jekyll and Hyde, we’ll have a quality, every day, outfielder.

2. Casper Wells, OF

Wells was one of several minor leaguers who got a shot in the Show during 2010. With the Tigers he hit .323/.364/.538 in 36 games. He also went deep 4 times with 17 RBI. At that pace, over 162 games he would have hit 18 home runs with 76 RBI. Surprisingly, his AAA numbers were actually worse than his 2010 big league numbers. In 103 games for Toledo he hit .233 and slugged .483. Notably, however, he belted 21 home runs. Wells seems to be capable of producing at any level. Fans should keep a close eye on Toledo to see if he maintains consistency in the average and power departments.

3. Will Rhymes, 2B

Rhymes played 95 games for Toledo and 54 for the Tigers. At Toledo, he hit .305 with 35 RBI. He stole 22 bases and posted a respectable OBP of .370. Rhymes was promoted and then sent back to AAA following a brief stint in the bigs. He then returned to the Tigers following injury problems. Rhymes is a competitive man who loved the big leagues. I think he’s got the work ethic and fiery spirit to be a big leaguer soon. If you want see what Rhymes thinks about Rhymes, check out his web site: (http://www.willrhymes.com/).

4. Scott Sizemore, 2B

In 48 games with the Tigers Sizemore hit .224/.296/.336 with 3 homers and 14 RBI. Clearly, he was not quite ready for the bigs. His minor league numbers were better: .298/.378/.472 over 76 games for the Toledo Mud Hens. Sizemore is probably never going to be a Robinson Cano type player, but he has the skill set to be a productive in-fielder at the major league level. He should figure into the discussion for the 2011 second base job opening.

5. Alex Avila, C

Avila played quality baseball behind the plate. At the plate, however, he lacked the same consistency in his game. He hit .228 over 104 games with 7 HR and 31 RBI. I, as a fan of the Tigers, would also like to offer this mostly subjective nugget of analysis: Over the year, in my opinion, it seemed like Avila produced hits or walks in crucial situations more often than Laird did. The numbers sort of back up my opinion: Avila – .344 OBP w/RISP, Laird – .275 OBP w/RISP. Although Laird did hit .222 w/RISP compared to Avila’s average of .203 w/ RISP. Avila is not going to win a silver slugger award at catcher, but I feel he has a higher ceiling than his 2010 performance. Watch for him to improve next year.

6. Ryan Strieby, 1B, 2B, OF

If I was a manger, I would have Strieby be the first player off the bus at every game. I’d then have him sneak back onto the bus and walk off again, somewhere in the middle of the team. He stands 6’5’’ and weighs in at 235 lbs. This behemoth appeared in 76 games for the Mud Hens. Strieby spent 2010 adjusting to higher-level pitching. In 2009 he hit .303/.427/.565 for AA Erie with 19 homers and 58 RBI in 86 games. In 2010, he was promoted to AAA Toledo where his numbers dipped (.245/.323/.400). His power numbers also fell as he only went yard 10 times. The troubling part about 2010 is that Strieby showed improvement in the average and slugging departments after every promotion prior to last year:

2006 at A- Oneonta, .241 BA/.335 SLG

2007 at A West Michigan, .253 BA/.422 SLG

2008 at A+ Lakeland, .278 BA/.563 SLG

2009 at AA Erie, .303 BA/.565 SLG

2010 at AAA Toledo, .245 BA/.400 SLG

If Strieby can continue to improve, he’ll be a solid, every day, power bat. If he does not show significant improvement at Toledo he may be an ideal player to look at trading to bolster a mid-season deal.

7. Daniel Fields, OF

Fields is the son of former Tigers hitting Coach Bruce Fields. He was also ranked in the top 50 prospects in 2009 and is from Detroit. It seems as though destiny will place Fields into the outfield at Comerica Park in the future. In 2010, his first professional season, Fields didn’t do much with the bat (.240/.343/.371). Fields did manage to play pretty solid defense, committing only one error in 102 games for Lakeland. Watch for Fields to develop as a hitter and probably end up in Erie.

8. Gustavo Nunez, SS

Nunez is a small kid, standing only 5’10’’, but his compact frame packs some explosive quickness. Nunez stole 33 bases in 2010 for Lakeland after being promoted from West Michigan. His batting numbers fell off in Lakeland as he hit just .222 with an OBP of .263. Nunez needs to improve his patience and his decision making while swinging the bat. He’s got plenty of raw talent which needs to be refined. If the Tigers hitting instructors can get the average up, he’ll be a dangerous player on the base paths. Nunez will benefit from some more time on the farm.

9. Alden Carrithers, 2B

Carrithers hit .359 before being promoted from Lakeland to Erie. At Erie, he hit significantly worse at .262. Carrithers didn’t hit for power at all during 2010, but, I think he has serious Moneyball upside. His OBP in 2010 was .422. Needs to improve against high level pitching but he has plate awareness and patience to get on base.

10. Wade Gaynor, 3B

In 131 games for West Michigan, Gaynor hit .286/.354/.436. His 147 hits led the Tigers’ farm system. Gaynor is a young guy, at 22, and has a high ceiling. In his last 10 games he had 10 RBI and only went hitless twice. He won’t be in Detroit in 2011 but look for Gaynor to see a promotion within the farm.

11. Andy Dirks, LF

The 6’, 195 lb lefty played at Erie and Toledo in 2010. In Only 22 games for Toledo he shredded opposing pitching. At Toledo, he hit .375/.398/.648 with 4 HR and 17 RBI. Those numbers were up significantly from his Erie totals, but are quite impressive. Dirks is continuing to tweak his game in the offseason and is currently assigned to the Toros del Este in a Dominican winter league.

12. Jordan Lennerton, 1B

Lennerton hit .295 cumulatively between stops at West Michigan and Lakeland. After being sent to Lakeland, his HRs went from 3 to 9 and he increased his RBI output from 23 to 33. I think he’ll start 2011 with Lakeland and be in Erie before August. Lennerton is a lefty who has exhibited some power. If he continues to spend time in the weight room, and display a continued increase in performance, he’ll be a hot commodity in the near future.

13. Kody Kaiser, RF

Kaiser hit .293/.346/.445 over 112 games at Lakeland and Erie. He was 20 for 26 when attempting to steal. Kaiser is a decent prospect but needs to improve the frequency with which he strikes out as he was K’d 109 times in 434 AB’s.

14. Rawley Bishop, 1B

Bishop hit .276 over 133 games at Lakeland and then Erie. He hit 15 HR and drove in 87. He has displayed decent power but his average fell 50 points between Lakeland and Erie. Bishop needs to show that he can hit superior pitching before advancing any further in the farm system.

15. Avisail Garcia, OF

Garcia is a pretty raw prospect. He is only 19 years old with one professional season under his belt. In 125 games with West Michigan he hit .281 with 4 HR and 63 RBI. He stole 20 bases in 24 attempts. Garcia is spending the off season back home in Venezuela with the Caribes de Anzoategui. He will need to spend a few seasons working on his game, but he’s an athletic youngster with room to grow.

16. Billy Nowlin, DH

Nowlin spent 83 games with Lakeland before being sent to Erie for 40 games. Cumulatively, he hit .265 with 14 HR and 71 RBI. Nowlin started his Tigers career in 2008 with the GCL Tigers and has been continuously promoted every year. His 2010 numbers fell off slightly from 2009, but not substantially. If he can put together a decent year at Erie, Nowlin may end up in Toledo in 2011 or 2012.

2011 Season, Free Agents

Brad Penny fills out the rotation (updated & Raburn news)

January 11, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 22 Comments

ESPN is reporting $3M, up to $6M with incentives. A little high on the salary in my mind, but if he gets to $6M, it will be well worth it. I think this is a great pickup, and fills out the rotation nicely.

Penny sports a respectable career ERA of 4.11, and his best year was in 2007 when he went 16-4. He’s been below average since then, though he has been plagued by injuries. Further analysis coming tonight.

Penny is a fastball/curveball guy who has pretty good heat, but not a great secondary pitch. Thanks to Dave Duncan, he began refining his splitter last season and seemed to be having good success with it until his injury. Dave Cameron covered this beautifully last April on Fangraphs. His critics will argue that his velocity has decreased (it hasn’t) and that he gets beat up by AL pitching. Yes, he had an unusually high BABIP against of .336 with Boston on ’09, where he was released towards the end of the season, but he quickly bounced back with a stellar stretch run for the Giants that year, going 4-1 with a .96 WHIP and 2.59 ERA. I’m not ready to call his high BABIP and resulting high ERA an AL problem. 2010 started good until he got injured again (while batting this time, I think). If he can keep the ball down, he’ll do just fine in Comerica.

In other news, Raburn signed a two-year deal today worth $3.4M, avoiding salary arbitration. This is a nice bump from the $440k he made last year, but he’ll still have two more years of arb eligibility after this deal expires. Looks like a win-win. But remember that Raburn will be 30 in April…if he’s not effective as a full-time player this year, he likely will never be.

Zumaya and Galarraga are still lingering, though DD has yet to go to arbitration with anyone during his tenure. I’d expect them to be signed soon, as the arb hearings usually take place in late January or early February.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 1.4.2011

January 5, 2011 Kevin in Dallas 2 Comments

Happy New Year all. I hope that everyone is enjoying the bowl season. A few things that I’ve compiled over the last few days.

– Bless You Boys posted a great note today which makes a case to put Trammell in the Hall of Fame. Citing an article by Joe Posnanski, the crux of the argument is that Trammell excelled relative to his position, and should not be compared to today’s “slugging” shortstops. Unfortunately, I don’t see it. I see the argument, but I don’t see the votes. And this is coming from a guy who uses Trammell references liberally in his password combos.

– Higginson isn’t really in the running.

– Yanks show interest in Bonderman. Take it for what it’s worth.

– A Miami columnist weighs in on the 3 team race in the central. Nothing of note here, other than it must have been a slow news day in Miami.

– The USA Today ran a great organizational report yesterday, check it out here.

– Is Bryce Harper the next Al Kaline?

2011 Season, Links