All posts by Kevin in Dallas

Game 2016.37: Tigers at Orioles

Drafting this on Saturday b/c I’m out of town on Sunday.

Fill in the blanks.

The Tigers lost in ______________ (spectacular, heartbreaking, the usual) fashion yesterday, falling a third straight time to the O’s, and for the 11th time in 12 games. That’s right, the Tigers have one win in May. While many will point to _______________ (a lack of hitting, Anibal Sanchez, the bullpen, Justin Upton, all four) for the loss, the reality is that Ausmus has lost this clubhouse, and the team is playing with about as much effort as my employees demonstrate after Friday taco lunch.

I still don’t understand why Ausmus ________________ (left in _______ so long, didn’t pinch hit for ____________, didn’t think about _____________ in ____________ situation).His managerial playbook is as confusing to me as are adult coloring books, and I wonder if his bench coaches are all mutes or dumb.

I will note that I’ve been turning on 1130 AM in the mornings via iHeartRadio. Matt Shepard let’s his callers go on forever (though that seems to be typical in a 1 host format), but there is a lot of Tigers commiserating going on. It’s good to not be alone.

Game 2016.34: Tigers at Orioles

Another game, another loss, this one just happened to nearly set an MLB record for futility.

Ausmus made two huge managerial blunders yesterday – not getting Salty in to the game via a double switch after his PH appearance, and not sending a red hot Castellanos up to bat. This seriously may be the best two month stretch of Castellanos’ career. And he can’t get a PH at bat under last night’s circumstances. Think about that.

Firing Ausmus doesn’t put us in the playoffs, but it may at least but the game back in the hands of the players.

I wanted to talk about Cabrera for a sec. Last week I heard Jim lamenting about how the ball doesn’t look to be coming off of Cabrera’s bat with the same velocity that we’re used to. He implied that Cabrera maybe had lost some power. We’ve seen this in the past when he’s had his core issues, but the understanding was that he was fully healthy this year. So what do the numbers tell us?

The first number to look at is is ISO. Isolated power is SLG – AVG, or basically extra bases per at-bat. Cabrera’s career ISO is .239, this year it’s .152, a marked decrease. In fact, last year’s .196 was the only season of his career below .200. His line drive rate this year is 25.3%, which is slightly above his career average of 22.1%, but based on Fangraphs’ soft speed/medium speed/hard speed metrics of his balls in play (provided by Baseball Info Solutions), he’s below his career average for hard, and above for soft and medium. This is a concern. Further, he’s going opposite field 35.4% of the time, vs. a career average of 28.3%. He’s only pulling the ball 34.3% of the time, which is a slight decrease from last year’s 35.8%, and well below his career 39.4% average.

It’s definitely expected that he’ll lose some power over time, and a more experienced hitter goes the other way more often, but the actual numbers are concerning. I’ll also point out that his 11.1% swinging strike rate is his highest since 2008, and well above last year’s 9.6% (something we would not expect from a more experienced hitter).

In a nutshell, less XBH, softer hit balls, and more swinging strikes. Not good indicators. He’s definitely earned the right to a larger sample size, but either he’s declining rapidly, or still injured.

Moya up (Hardy down), Upton still in the lineup – in CF. Baseball-Reference game preview here.

Daniel Norris is up as well, though he hasn’t pitched well in the minors.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. J.D. Martinez, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Nick Castellanos, 3B

6. Justin Upton, CF

7. Steven Moya, LF

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.28: Rangers at Tigers

My lawn needs to be mowed. I struggle with the opportunity cost of my time. I’m in that hectic stage of life where my young kids demand a ton of time or they are too hilarious to not spend time with, and I’m highly motivated to grow my business, so free time is hard to come by. And working in the services business curses you to the extent that I have an idea of what my time is worth (in some regards).

But I love mowing my lawn. Fresh cut grass and a nice edge line is as American as apple pie and a three spot by the visiting team in the top of the first. So I’m here to admit that I based my decision on whether I would mow the lawn, or call the guys to do it (for the first time this year – I’ve held out for over a month already), on Saturday’s game time. A Saturday afternoon listening to sweet Dan and redundant Jim on a warm day while I mow is something to look forward to at my age. I envision the kids laughing and playing with some water spraying toy in our freshly carved lawn as my wife, wearing a bikini, brings me an ice cold beer and offers to turn on the patio fan for me to sit and admire my work.

In all actuality, I’ll be pissed b/c I have to mow twice due to all the rain, I’ll miss several clumps of dog poop and will spend 10 minutes carving the sh*t out of the tread of my shoes with a stick, and my weed eater will run out of line and I’ll spend an hour trying to re-string the thing as I wear my fingertips to a pulp. Then my wife will walk in with the latest load from Target and ask that I unpack whatever we already have four of in the pantry. Ahh, the American dream.

***

Awful pitching and no hitting = 3 game sweep. How long do JV and Sanchez have to keep this up before something changes? Any 4th or 5th starter pitching like they have would be on the DL or in the minors by now. Not that anything will change soon. Just words for thought.

Aviles in right for JD Martinez. Hamels v. Zimmermann tonight should be fun.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B

2. Mike Aviles, RF

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B

4. Victor Martinez, DH

5. Justin Upton, LF

6. Nick Castellanos, 3B

7. James McCann, C

8. Anthony Gose, CF

9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.24: Tigers at Twinkies

Nothing like a 4 game win streak to superficially heighten your mood. And I know this is you guys too…are we shallow for letting a child’s game affect our emotional state? Or passionate and complex?

The Tigers scored 3 in the first yesterday, and are now 6-0 in games where they score in the first inning.

Baseball-reference game preview here.

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B
2. J.D. Martinez, RF
3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
4. Victor Martinez, DH
5. Justin Upton, LF
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B
7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
8. Anthony Gose, CF
9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.23: Tigers at Twinkies

Fulmer was good enough yesterday. Not great – he gave up a lot of hits, but pretty good considering it was his first ML start. I thought the load was appropriate and the pen was dominant again.

Zimmerman on the mound today.

#’s off of Tyler Duffey.

  1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (1-for-6)
  2. J.D. Martinez, RF (3-for-5, double, walk)
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (2-for-5, walk)
  4. Victor Martinez, DH (2-for-6, K)
  5. Justin Upton, LF
  6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (3-for-6, 2 doubles, K)
  7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
  8. Anthony Gose, CF (1-for-6, walk, 2 K’s)
  9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game 2016.22: Tigers at Twinkies

Since my last post the Tigers have completed the first “inning” of baseball, or initial 18 games (assuming my math is right this time…). They ended the top half of the first at 3 games over, and the bottom half at 3 games under, for an even 9-9. Not the start we were hoping for, but probably in line with most expectations. The White Sox are off to a sizzling start, but we’ve seen this before. It’s too early to worry about the standings.

So what did we see in the first inning?

1) Cabrera was a bit worrisome to some, but he’s been back to his old self this week, and there’s no reason for concern in my mind. He’ll hit his usual .320/.400/.560 with 30 HR and 120 RBI. Note that his OPS over the past week is 1.100+.

2) Despite a .231 BA, Saltalamacchia is murdering the baseball, leading the team with a .673 slugging. He’s not going to keep this up, but considering that he’s a backup, I’m thrilled. I love the idea of his lefty power coming off the bench late in games.

3) Verlander is a real concern. His average FB this year sits at 93.01 MPH, just a hair above the MLB average of 92.59. Let’s call it what it is, his days as a power pitcher are done. He has problems starting and finishing games, and his lack of command is going to lead to a lot of early exits. I still have hope that he can transition to a dominant finesse pitcher because he’s always had a plus plus curveball and has developed a legitimate change and slider; but the change is less effective with the loss of velocity on his fastball, and he regularly has problems locating his slider. He’s throwing his slider more than ever before (17.9% of the time), so keep an eye on how well he locates that pitch is moving forward.

4) Anibal Sanchez has had enough starts to put doubts in my mind about his place in the rotation. He hasn’t completed the 6th inning this year after doing so in 20/24 starts last year (excluding his last one where he got injured). His WHIP is nearly 2, and his GO/AO is an awful .68. Groundballs are good. Flyballs are bad; unless you’re a power pitcher. Sanchez is striking out a ton (9.89/9), but that is quickly offset by a 6.08/9 BB rate. Seriously, he’s a problem.

5) Fortunately, the bullpen (other than VerHagen and FRod), has been stellar. If we’re only gonna get 5 innings out of Verlander and Sanchez, we’re going to need the pen. The middle guys have been as advertised, and I think that FRod will progress to normal.

6) VMart looks healthy, we’ll need his bat to keep up with the runs our starters are giving up.

7) Casty had an amazing first inning at the plate, and he’s been better in the field. If he can be an average third baseman I’ll be thrilled.

8) Ausmus looks like he’s “still learning”, though let’s credit him with the recent JD 2-hole move (even though this is post “first inning”). Early returns are positive. I’m curious to see how long he leaves JD in that spot.

Anyway, the Tigers travel to Minnesota for three, and take on a Twins team that looks destined for the Central cellar. Here’s a fun fact. The Twins have only scored 77 runs in 22 games, or 3.5 per game. The Royals have only scored 77 runs (one less game), but the Royals are 5.5 games up on the Twins. That’s pitching right there.

A shocked Michael Fulmer gets the rock tonight in his first big league start. Fulmer is the Tigers’ top pitching prospect, but let’s consider the comparison pool.

Hopping on a plane this evening, someone please post the lineup later today. Baseball-Reference game preview here.

 

 

Game 2015.17: Indians at Tigers

The Indians beat the Tigers with great pitching on Friday, and pounded us with great hitting yesterday. I wonder what’s in store for today.

The Tigers have been pretty bad over their last 7 games, no need to recap that here. Let’s just get a winning streak started. I do miss the old Leyland rants after games like this. I can’t help but think that Ausmus just walked into the locker room, looked down at his shoes and said, “aww shucks, let’s just try to win tomorrow.”

Baseball-Reference game preview here.

Both Upton and Cabrera are sitting today. I hate both of those moves.

1. 2B Kinsler

2. SS Iglesias

3. DH Martinez

4. RF Martinez

5. 3B Castellanos

6. C Saltalamacchia

7. LF Aviles

8. 1B Romine

9. CF Gose