The Detroit Tigers (39-31, 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland, losing streak at 2) continue their home stand with a 4-game set against the Clay Buchholz-less Boston Red Sox (44-30, 1st place AL East). The forecast says Detroit weather all good for the first couple games, fair chance of rain over the weekend that could affect play.

Thursday, June 20, 7:08 PM EDT: RHP John Lackey (4-5, 3.08) v LHP Jose Alvarez (1-0, 1,50)
Friday, June 21, 7:08 PM EDT: LHP Jon Lester (6-4, 4.37) v RHP Doug Fister (6-4, 3.21)
Saturday, June 22, 7:15 PM EDT*: RHP Allen Webster (0-1, 11.74) v RHP Max Scherzer (10-0, 3.08)
Sunday, June 23,  1:08 PM EDT: LHP Felix Doubront (4-3, 4.38) v RHP Justin Verlander (8-5, 3.72)

*National on Fox, meaning blacked out for us MLB.tv folks

MEET THE RED SOX*:  HITTING: .268 AVG (Tigers .281), .345 OBP (.348), .443 SLG (.428), .788 OPS (.776),  371 R (343), 82 HR (72), 58 of 71 SB (21 of 27), GIDP 59 or 11% (61 or 11%), INFIELD HITS 68 or 10.3% (52 or 7.6%). STARTING PITCHING: 3.70 ERA (Tigers 3.38), .241 BAA (.237), 1.30 WHIP (1.13), 401/174 K/BB (465/107), 54 HR (31). BULLPEN: 213 IP (Tigers 191), 12-8 W-L (4-13), 3.89 ERA (3.76), .246 BAA (.234), 1.36 WHIP (1.27), 231/91 K/BB (200/77), 26 HR (17), IRS% 27% (30%) DEFENSE: .986 FPCT (Tigers .989), .692 DefEff (.686), 59 DP (52), 76% SBPCT (75%), OF ASSISTS 15 (9), UNEARNED RUNS 20 (13).

*Thru 69 games

You could have – would have – called this another “are they ready?” series before the one just concluded against Baltimore. (You may recall that the Tigers failed the first two such tests against the Rangers and the Pirates.) At this point, a split with Boston would be a pleasant surprise, though the Red Sox feature a bullpen that the Tigers could munch on if they were so inclined. But I’m guessing that they’re not so inclined.

A few tidbits on the best starting rotation in baseball:

INNING-OWNERS*: MASTERS OF THEIR DOMAIN (thru 67 games)

SCHERZER 52.2% (48 OF 92)
ALVAREZ 50.0% (3 OF 6)
PORCELLO 40.3% (29 OF 72)
SANCHEZ 36.1% (30 OF 83)
FISTER 35.8% (34 OF 95)
VERLANDER 26.1% (23 OF 88)

*Perfect but for any IBB or ROE

IMPERFECT INNINGS ERA (thru 67 games)

ALVAREZ 3.00
SANCHEZ 4.25
VERLANDER 4.57
FISTER 4.87
SCHERZER 6.54
PORCELLO 9.18

INTERESTING COUNT DATA (BAA/OPSA) thru 67 games

(The bold type and asterisks are for separation and readability only, nothing more. Haven’t quite worked out the table insertion thing…)

And now, the situation…

The Tigers are fresh off their most humiliating loss of the season, a 13-3 rout at home that went from bad to worse to what we hope will be the last pitch Jose Valverde throws as a Tiger. Tell me something. Why does Miguel Cabrera not charge the Flaherty grounder in the 4th, two outs, man on 2B, Orioles up 2-0? Mario Impemba on Cabrera waiting on the ball at the bag and attempting to tag Hardy out there: “Really Miggy’s only play.” I don’t think so. I think that was a horrendous error in judgment that sent the game on its way to the toilet. I’ll have nice things to say about Miggy later, but that play is one big black eye. HUGE black eye. Even if the tag at 3rd is the only play, it was still misplayed, at great cost. I will get to the oft-neglected subject of defense next series.

Oh, I get it. The Tigers are a good hitting team. Not a good scoring team. Thanks for clearing that up, Tigers hitters. Anibal is out. That hurts. Austin is back, and way back. That helps. Valverde has reached the point of no return. Avila is on the DL, which may end up saving him his job as the starting catcher. Verlander has become some guy who reminds you a bit of Verlander at times. Roster confusion abounds, with someone about to be sent down due to Alvarez coming up for a start or two for Sanchez (we hope it’s only a start or two, despite the promise shown by Alvarez) and one too many outfielders already here and a possible bullpen shakeup brewing… but it might all be sorted out by the time you read this. Tuiasosopo is still hitting, still hardly playing, still causing much consternation among those of us permanently afflicted with Marcus Thames Disorder. Cracks are showing in the 800-Run Offense and the rotation may be starting to buckle, while the bullpen remains as unsettled and perplexing as always. I’m telling yeh, it’s all building up to something… something that can only be redeemed… with FIRE.

Coleman made an astute observation related to The Late Inning Troubles and Mr. Cabrera, or Cabby, as we like to call him. I’ll paraphrase: Miggy is so clutch before the clutch that he often makes the clutch unnecessary. More about him and Tigers offensive performance overall – impact and efficiency – in the game posts to come.

All right – here goes nothing, eh? Good luck, Jose Alvarez (with the Spirit Of Sanchez to guide you, as per the above). All eyes are upon you, you skid-stopper, you.

POST-GAME: Tigers 4, Red Sox 3. Good game, wrong result THEY DID IT! FIRST 2013 WALKOFF WIN!! Alvarez was as good as last time for 2 innings, then seemed to have a case of realizing where he was and who he was facing. John Lackey was quietly impressive in a Doug Fister “What just happened here?” way. On Jacoby Ellsbury’s 1st inning leadoff HR bid, Hunter made a good catch at the wall look “great” in a “Torii Hunter” kind of way. The suddenly wild Alvarez loaded the bases in the 3rd but wiggled out of it, with Leyland coming out to jaw about the HBP on Victorino that wasn’t really that debatable (see later). David Ortiz had been carved up by Alvarez in the 1st, but caught up to him in the 4th, sending a decent pitch outta here to RF. 1-0 Boston. In the bottom half, our so-called DH left Cabrera standing at 3B after more baserunning genius from Miggy (taking the base on a “WP” that barely got away, C Ryan Lavarnway just unable to find it). Hunter asked for more debate on his debatable defense in the 5th on the Jose Iglesias triple. It looked either lazy or way too safe as he allowed the ball to roll to the RCF wall and circled back around to get it, but in fact he had misread the ball speed on what might have been a long single and taken the wrong route in the first place. It might be a stretch to say this cost the run on the following Ellsbury single, though. 2-0 Red Sox. The Tigers cooked up a fine rally in the bottom half, rescued at the eleventh hour by the speedy Jackson loading the bases with a fine IF single 3B Will Middlebrooks didn’t have a chance to throw him out on, and Hunter delivering by muscling a flare into RF for 2 runs. Then Lackey struck Cabrera out (again). Tied at 2. Putkonen comes in for spent Alvarez to start the 6th, good move, side retired. The amazing run of good bullpen management (GBM) continues in the 7th with 2 outs from Putkonen and then Coke coming in to (stock phrase) carve up Ellsbury. In the Tigers 7th, a rare bad bunt by Infante wastes an out (popped), and the inning goes for naught (great takeout slide by Dirks to bust up a DP, though). GBM ends abruptly in the 8th with Coke coming back out (huh?) to hurl 9 straight balls and, eventually, allow an Ortiz single to make it 3-2 Boston. Smyly to the rescue, GBM restored. Smyly does a allow a “HBP” that isn’t even close to Lavarnway (and Leyland doesn’t argue this one), but gets three outs and leaves ’em loaded. That is what you call a save. Even when the team’s behind. Bottom 8th, Miggy strikes out for the 3rd time (Koji Uehera this time) and Prince breaks hearts with a deep fly to CF that doesn’t get out. Smyly’s 9th was marred only by the Victorino double. Tigers up, down one, last chance. Closer Andrew Bailey in for the Red Sox. Martinez, the guy I was so sick of earlier in the game… well, he can’t get around on a fastball any more, but he still has the eye, and he draws a walk. Kelly in to pinch-run. Peralta goes to two strikes quickly, which he apparently likes to do. Then he pulls off the improbable, the seemingly impossible. He puts it into the bullpen beyond LF. Game over. Win #40 in the books.

ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Fielder
2B Infante
SS Peralta
3B Middlebrooks
LF Dirks
CF Jackson
RF Hunter
DH Ortiz
P Lackey

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Drew Smyly

DFA: Phil Coke

36-27, first place 5.5 GA, winning streak at one.

Jackson

Alburquerque

Worth

Commenter mcb brought up an interesting point about the importance of Torii Hunter’s play Monday night on the Salvador Perez 2-run triple. I agree that a conventional back-up of CF Avisail Garcia would have held Perez to a double. Two runs would have scored either way, but with Perez on 2B instead of 3B, the score might have stayed 2-2, which might have changed the complexion of the game later. However, in my view, Hunter was coming on hard and measuring his own play on the ball – no fault there – just before Garcia made the sudden dive and stab at it. There was no time and nothing else for Torii to do but what he did – steer clear and circle back for the ball Garcia missed. All might have gone better, perhaps, if Garcia had yielded to Hunter – who was coming toward a throw in if it dropped – to begin with.

I’m reminded of a couple plays earlier in the season. There was a flyball hit to deep LCF that fell between Andy Dirks and Austin Jackson, won the game for the Twins. That one just made it out there too fast and fell in no man’s land. No fault. Another time (can’t remember the opponent), Matt Tuiasosopo pulled away at the last moment on a flyball hit to LCF nearly to the fence, as Jackson was coming over hard for it himself. Tuiasosopo had a play on that one and gave way out of caution, as a collision must have seemed imminent. I blamed Jackson on that one. I know he can cover a lot of ground, but he was trespassing there.

WRAPPING UP OUR BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60

TIGERS BULLPEN
*172 IP, 4-11 W-L, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .231 BAA, 0.83 HR/9, 9.6/3.9 K/BB-9, 13-21 SvO

205 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.4% RUNS ALLOWED (50 times)
33.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
41.9% NOTHING BUT OUTS (86 times)
75.6% NO DAMAGE (155 times)

OTHER BULLPENS (AL AVERAGE?) AGAINST THE TIGERS

279 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.7% RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
40.9% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (114 times)
34.4% NOTHING BUT OUTS (96 times)
75.3% NO DAMAGE (210 times)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS BULLPEN (A GOOD ONE)
*155 IP, 12-9 W-L, 2,79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .225 BAA, 0.87 HR/9, 8.3/3.3 K/BB-9, 17-25 SvO

184 pitched-in-inning appearances
21.7% RUNS ALLOWED (40 times)
39.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (73 times)
38.6% NOTHING BUT OUTS (71 times)
78.3% NO DAMAGE (144 times)

* Thru 62 games

Note the rather slim margin between average and good. Interesting.

DETROIT INDIVIDUAL

Let’s abbreviate REACHES/ADVANCES as “H” and NOTHING BUT OUTS as “Z” and then rank Tigers relievers in the NO DAMAGE category (the RUNS ALLOWED ranking running exactly opposite, of course):

PORCELLO 100% (Z-100%) 2 Innings Pitched In
ORTEGA 87% (H-47%, Z-40%) 15 IPI
BENOIT 86% (H-41%, Z-45%) 29 IPI
SMYLY 85% (H-40%, Z-45%) 40 IPI
VALVERDE 81% (H-31%, Z-50%) 16 IPI
PUTKONEN 80% (H-40%, Z-40%) 10 IPI
COKE 72% (H-20%, Z-52%) 25 IPI
DOWNS 71% (H-21%, Z-50%) 28 IPI
ALBURQUERQUE 68% (H-42%, Z-26%) 19 IPI
REED 67% (H-67%) 3 IPI
DOTEL 57% (H-28%, Z-28%) 7 IPI
RONDON 50% (H-25%, Z-25%) 4 IPI
VILLAREAL 14% (H-14%) 7 IPI

So… there’s something to chew on. I’ll chew on it for a while myself, and be back with a different subject of statistical inquiry next time around.

Post-game to follow.

POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2 (10 innings). Jose Valverde is not a popular fellow. Let us not forget, however, that Smyly allowed Hosmer to reach. And then there are all those missed opportunities and a few crappy, crucial at bats from hitters who ought to know better. Several culprits in this one. Verlander was dominant, more so than in many a game where he tossed double-digit K’s (8 today). James Shields was quite good as well, and it was another duel between the two, but the Tigers managed to find a few chinks in Shields’s armor. The story of the game – before it fell apart – was the outstanding defense behind both pitchers. (Well, Peralta’s sailing throw that would have been an error but for a lucky bounce back doesn’t count – but he made a great stop on Butler’s grounder to begin the play). There was 1B Eric Hosmer on Tuiasosopo’s scorching liner. There was RF David Lough robbing Cabrera of a double with a lunge and tumble catch for an out. Santiago at 2B made two outstanding plays in the 3rd. Fielder snatching Elliot Johnson’s liner and getting the unassisted DP at 1B. The enviable range of SS Alcides Escobar on Don Kelly’s bid for an RBI single up the middle to get the 3rd out of the 8th. The Tigers had chipped in runs in the 1st (Fielder bloop scores Garcia) and 5th (back to back doubles by Tui and Pena), and did get 1 run from a fine game of small ball (3 sac bunts??). After 7, the mighty Justin seemed in line for his 9th win, bullpen willing. Before we beat on them, let’s mention the missed opportunities. Martinez GIDP with 2 on in the 1st. Pena at 3B, one out in the 5th, bupkus from Garcia and Hunter. Tuiasosopo K with 2 on in the 6th to end the threat and inning (not a bad AB, though). Pena on 2B, one out in the 7th, Garcia and Hunter AGAIN (punched out by Shields). 2 on and none out in the 8th, nothing from Martinez-Peralta-Kelly. Now it’s the bottom of the 9th, 2-0 Tigers. I was so happy to see Smyly start the inning. I shouldn’t have been, because Hosmer found his first pitch as predictable as I did. Failure against the one guy he was going to face – not good. Nervous time. Valverde in. It went well for a while. He was pitching pretty well. Got Butler to chase the high heat for a legitimate K this time. 2 outs! Hosmer takes 2B, though. Only Mr. 3 K’s (against Verlander) Lorenzo Cain to get. The count goes to 0-2. You don’t throw what Valverde did here. Cain ties it, 2-run homer to LF. Here’s where it gets really ugly. Next batter Lough, groundball, Miggy flat out drops the 3rd out. Coke comes in. Before a pitch is thrown, Coke goes to 1B – they’ve got Lough at 1B hung up! PRINCE now flat out drops the 3rd out, and Lough takes 2B. In the 10th, Hunter and Cabrera looked foolish against Greg Holland, and Fielder not much better. Against Coke (why?), the Royal small-balled their way to the inevitable two-out walkoff hit (RBI single by Hosmer). Tigers now 2-7 in extras. One of the most demoralizing losses of the season, an absolutely GUTLESS late-inning showing. On this hot and breezy day, some of the Tigers couldn’t stand it and left the kitchen early. If Leyland didn’t read them the Riot Act about this one, he must be saving the rage for later.

THE ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Hosmer
2B Santiago
SS Escobar
3B Moustakas
LF Tuiasosopo
CF Cain
RF Lough
DH Butler
P Verlander

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: James Shields, Miguel Tejada

DFA: Jose Valverde

Congratulations to Jose Alvarez on a fine 1st MLB victory yesterday. Thank you, Donkey Kong! Thanks also to Miguel Cabrera for the comedy of throwing his gum at Ryan Raburn rounding the bases after the HR. (It was Raburn who hit the HR, unfortunately. Sorry for the confusion. But it would have been funny either way.)

The Detroit Tigers (35-26, 5.5 games up in 1st place, winning streak at 4), after a 5-1 home stand that we mostly complained about (ha ha), begin their latest road trip with a three-game series at Kaufman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals (28-32, 3rd place, 6.5 GB). The two teams split a pair earlier this season when the Royals looked tough to beat. Since then, Detroit has ascended in a two steps forward (starting pitching), one step back (bullpen and where have the bats gone) manner that characterizes the entire season, while Kansas City, I have heard, has fallen from grace largely due to the disappearance of its offense. Kaufman Stadium, you may recall, is where Miggy got the standing O last October when his Triple Crown achievement was announced. Classy. Although I seem to also recall some not-so-classy reaction from the KC crowd at the 2012 All-Star Game that also made headlines. Don’t remember what that was about.

Monday. June 10, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Doug Fister (5-3, 3.27) v. RHP Jeremy Guthrie (6-3, 3.66)

We all remember Fister’s 9 straight Ks against the Royals (at Comerica) last season. What we’ve forgotten is that his very next start was also against them, at Kaufman Stadium, and while it wasn’t a disaster, it was labored and ineffective, and he lasted only 4.1 (believe it or not, he also hit a batter). Guthrie happened to be his opponent that game, and picked up the win with a quality start. Current Tigers have a lot of history with Guthrie, and they have – unequivocally – hit him hard. Current Royals have a goodly amount of PA vs. Fister, but have hit him for average more than damage.

Tuesday, June 11, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer (8-0, 3.24) v. RHP Wade Davis (3-5, 5.66)

These pitchers faced each other in Detroit on April 24, and neither fared well in a game the Tigers eventually won (that also marked the return of Jose Valverde). Scherzer made his poorest start of the season (in 5 IP) but still picked up the win, while things just kind of progressively fell apart for Davis in his 3.2, with assistance from an untimely error by 3B Eric Hosmer Mike Moustakas (duh). It should be noted that .197-at-the-time V-Mart was 2 for 3 with 2 RBI off Davis.

Wednesday, June 12, 2:10 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander (8-4, 3.71) v. RHP James Shields (2-6, 2.81)

The last Verlander/Shields matchup was April 25 at Comerica, and it was a good and evenly matched one with no decision for either in a game later decided (in the 10th) by one of the more notable Tigers bullpen implosions this season.

WEATHER: The KC area forecast is all warmth and sunshine through Wednesday.

All stats current as of June 8.

MEET THE ROYALS: HITTING: .258 AVG (Tigers .283), .312 OBP (.350), .371 SLG (.434), .682 OPS (.785), 232 R (313), 31 HR (66), 45 of 55 SB (19 of 24). STARTING PITCHING: 3.86 ERA (Tigers 3.51), .268 BAA (.241), 1.32 WHIP (1.15), 289/110 K/BB (411/90), 54 HR (24). BULLPEN: 150 IP (Tigers 169), 11-9 W-L (4-11), 2.88 ERA (3.89), .228 BAA (.230), 1.21 WHIP (1.29), 138/55 K/BB (180/74), 15 HR (16). DEFENSE: .983 FPCT (Tigers .990), .694 DefEff (.682), 50 DP (44), 69% SBPCT (78%), OF ASSISTS 16 (6), UNEARNED RUNS 23 (13).

What should give the Tigers the edge is hitting. Aside from DH Billy Butler and LF Alex Gordon, production from the lineup has become a struggle for KC. You can see from the 31 HR and .371 SLG that the Royals are a team in need of manufactured runs that aren’t being manufactured. However, Detroit bats had best not go into famine mode here. The advantage swings to KC if the scores are low, and even if the Tigers managed to come away with 2 of 3, we don’t want another Mariners series, do we? No. We want domination, or at least two solid thumpings.

A TIGERS BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60 GAMES

What the overall odds (Tigers 2013) are for the following per-pitcher, per-inning bullpen appearance results:

40% Nothing but outs
33% Reaches/advances but no runs during or after
24% Runs allowed
*3% Reaches/advances that later scored
73% No damage (combining the first two categories)

NOTHING BUT OUTS

(100% Porcello in 2 IP)

52% Coke
50% Valverde
46% Downs
44% Benoit
43% Smyly
40% Ortega
40% Putkonen

(Hey, the above is was the current bullpen. What a coincidence.)

29% Dotel
25% Alburquerque
25% Rondon
*0% Reed
*0% Villareal

REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS DURING/AFTER

20% Downs
20% Coke
25% Rondon
29% Dotel
31% Valverde

38% Smyly
40% Benoit
40% Alburquerque
40% Putkonen
47% Ortega
57% Villareal
67% Reed

REACHES/ADVANCES THAT LATER SCORED

3% Benoit

5% Smyly
5% Alburquerque
7% Downs

(All others 0%)

RUNS ALLOWED

13% Benoit
13% Ortega
14% Smyly
19% Valverde
20% Putkonen

27% Downs
28% Coke
30% Alburquerque
33% Reed
43% Dotel
43% Villareal
50% Rondon

NO-DAMAGE % (Porcello at 100%, of course)

87% Ortega
83% Benoit
81% Smyly
81% Valverde
80% Putkonen

72% Coke
67% Downs
67% Reed
65% Alburquerque
57% Dotel
50% Rondon
14% Villareal

Tell me your bottom line on all this. Are we being too hard on the Tigers pen? Without MLB-wide averages on % of “Nothing but outs,” etc., that’s a hard question to answer. For Jose Valverde in particular, it’s clear enough that his results have been good, and yet we decry his lack of stuff and forecast doom. And I obviously need to rethink my position on Benoit and Putkonen, among others. (Jose Ortega has been optioned to Toledo to make room for fill-in starter Jose Alvarez, by the way. You’d imagine that this is just a temporary roster shuffle and that Ortega will be back, pending the return to the rotation of formerly sore-shouldered Anibal Sanchez.)

Austin Jackson, who has missed nearly half the season now with the hamstring injury (the caution is understandishable), is to begin a rehab assignment with Toledo today (Monday). Meanwhile, the even longer-absent Octavio Dotel has become a popular attraction at early summer cookouts, his elbow apparently so inflamed that he’s able to grill burgers and brats on his bare arm. Dotel has been placed anew on the DL, I hear. 60-day.

Coleman’s game post/game result success continues. He’s 15-8, while Kevin is back in the race at 12-9 and I bring up the rear at 8-9 (not my fault, I tell you). I think it’s only fair to ask Coleman to provide tonight’s lineup(s) and rub some of his good luck off on this game.

Post-game will be right back here.

POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2. Well, you knew where this one was going after 3, didn’t you? Tigers fall behind, they tend to stay behind. But they were on top 2-0 first, on the strength of Cabrera’s long HR to LF in the 3rd off of Jeremy Guthrie with Hunter at 2B. Detroit was hitting Guthrie all evening. Trouble is, the balls kept ending up in the outfielder’s gloves, however deep or shallow they may have been hit. 10 flyball outs for Guthrie, 0 strikeouts. With the first run support of any kind in ages to work with, Fister promptly gave it all back in the bottom half. The mistake that cost him the game was the pitch to Salvador Perez that ended up in the RCF gap for a game-tying triple. Don’t miss Austin Jackson? See Garcia’s diving attempt? Now you do. The go-ahead run for KC scored with Perez at 3B and Lorenzo Cain beating out a grounder to Peralta at SS. Don’t fault Jhonny. Credit Cain – effective contact + speed. Strength of the Royals, weakness of the Tigers. It can make a difference in games like this, and obviously did. Fister (13 groundball outs and 2 DPs behind him) pitched well, and Guthrie pitched well. The flyball game turned out to be the better approach, and Doug came away with an 8-inning CG loss. So if there’s a bullpen to blame, it’s the other team’s this time. The last serious chance for Detroit came in the 7th, men on 1st and 2nd, one out when Aaron Crow relieved Guthrie. Cabrera’s swinging strikeout against Crow was the last gasp. What had led off the inning suddenly loomed larger – Infante had been robbed of a base hit by LF Alex Gordon’s diving catch. The defensive play of the game for the Tigers was the K-CS DP in the 4th that ended the inning. Alcides Escobar took strike three and Chris Getz took off for 2B. Avila’s throw was strong but to the SS side of the bag, and it took a strong effort by Infante to get the runner on a very close call that the Tigers might have caught a break on. That was a turning point that kept it close. Oddly, the Tigers didn’t seem to know there were 3 outs right away. Maybe no one heard the strikeout call.

THE ALL-STAR TEAM

C Perez
1B Hosmer
2B Infante
SS Peralta
3B Cabrera
LF Gordon
CF Cain
RF Hunter
DH Butler
P Guthrie

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Aaron Crow

DFA: No one, really. Maybe Leyland for not pinch-hitting Tui somewhere…

30-24, .5 ahead and in first place, winning streak at 1. Torii “300” Hunter is back in the lineup and Rick Porcello throws sinkers, so today’s victory is, of course, assured. The stone glove, Teflon hands, and paper bat of Ramon Santiago will not prevent it! Sorry, Ramon. I’m sure you’ll have a good game.

VERLANDER

JACKSON

SCHERZER

MR. POTATO-HEAD

CABBY

QUINTIN BERRY & FRANCISCO WHO?

TUIPLUNKOSOSOPO

Nothing “heavy” as threatened, but here’s a little statistical potpourri. Well, not even potpourri, really; just a coupla things:

A look at BA v. BABIP. Differential between ’em is the thing to look at.

2013 BA/BABIP* (CAREER BA/BABIP)

Tuiasosopo .333/.415 (.212/.288)
Peralta .328/.403 (.267/.313)
Cabrera .369/.380 (.320/.347)
Hunter .312/.367 (.278/.309)
Jackson .272/.336 (.280/.367)
Pena .307/.323 (.252/.270)
Infante .294/.309 (.276/.307)
Garcia .270/.308 (.298/.365)
Fielder .270/.300 (.287/.322)
Dirks .247/.273 (.282/.314)
Martinez .230/.247 (.300/.313)
Avila .173/.220 (.252/.315)
Kelly .173/.177 (.226/.244)
Santiago .135/.167 (.243/.279)

*League average is .256/.298

PITCHING OPS-AGAINST*

Villareal 1.426
Rondon 1.227
Dotel 1.125
Coke .751
Porcello .738
Reed .733
Verlander .710
Ortega .699
Alburquerque .688
Fister .665
Downs .640
Sanchez .606
Benoit .577
Scherzer .568 (who has a high XHB%!?)
Putkonen .558
Smyly .539
Valverde .529 (his BAA/BABIP-against are the same at .156 – this is weird)

*League average is .735

HITTING: OPS PLATOON SPLITS, RHP/LHP*

Avila .648 R / .132 L (not a typo, and no, this is not BA, but OPS)
Fielder .800 R / 1.025 L
Infante .713 R / .797 L
Peralta .795 R / 1.054 L
Cabrera 1.064 R / 1.364 L
Martinez .616 R / .566 L
Dirks .705 R / .573 L
Jackson .689 R / .758 L
Hunter .798 R / .743 L
Tuiasosopo 1.185 R / .831 L
Pena 1.054 R / .529 L
Kelly .572 R / .706 L (crucial that he gets the start against righties, eh?)
Santiago .432 R / .517 L
Garcia 1.167 R / .600 L

*Team totals are .771 R / .790 L

Today’s “String Beans To Utah” lineups:

DETROIT

Dirks LF
Hunter RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Santiago 2B
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

Oh, the usual, I suppose. Actually, DH Dickerson has taken Wieters’s spot in the lineup, and Snyder is in at C.

Do not come back for the post-game, but instead be vewy vewy quiet. I’m hunting wabbit.

POST-GAME: Orioles 4, Tigers 2. This one slipped away in a most unpleasant manner. Once again, a struggling rookie held the Tigers (mostly) (largely) in check. Kevin Gausman got Cabrera for 2 GIDP and a strikeout. Say what? Miguel Cabrera? Porcello started out looking like the expected groundballs were all going to be line drives instead, but then settled down, and settled down GOOD. He struck out Adam Jones 3 times, carved Mr. Hyper-Gum right up, as a matter of fact. Rick was helped along in his transition by a 2nd-inning great catch in RF by Hunter on J.J. Hardy’s fast-receding deep flyball. The only damage done against Gausman was in the 4th, Fielder’s solo bomb to RCF on the same pitch Fielder had just missed for strike three in his previous AB. But note that just prior to this HR, Miggy had erased Hunter (aboard after a fine bunt for a hit) and himself on a 6-4-3. One run lost. In the 5th, Peralta had made it as far as 3B with one out before Santiago and Garcia turned in failed ABs. Another run lost. Top of the 7th, 1-0 Tigers, Brian Matusz in for the O’s. Prince doubles, Martinez singles, and Jhonny bloops in Fielder to make it 2-0 Detroit. Here’s where it starts to get ugly. A horrible sac bunt “attempt” by Avila resulted in a 2-5-3 DP. Ramon’s noble sac fly attempt came two innings late and was unable to score Peralta… from 2B… with 2 out. Shall we say the total of runs lost is up to 3 now? Meanwhile, Porcello was obviously out of gas to begin with when he came out for the 7th and immediately served up a towering RF home run for Chris Davis that made it 2-1. Phil C-uh-oh-ke came on with none out and runners at the corners. The good news is that he got out of a tough 1st and 2nd, one out jam. The bad news is that two runs charged to Porcello scored first. 3-2 Orioles, with what would prove to be the winning run scoring on a clutch knock up the middle by Nate McLouth. How many GIDP today for Detroit? 12? Hunter added one more in the 8th. Downs came on for the 8th and would have had a fine inning, the Davis clever beat-the-shift double notwithstanding, but for a slight technicality. His mistake – no Tigers bullpen appearance is complete without one – was the Casilla RBI double, which may have been misplayed to some extent by Dirks in LF. 4-2 Baltimore. Ortega came in replacing Downs and walked #9 hitter Chris Snyder on 4 pitches before escaping. Last chance, 3-4-5 due up. Cabrera singled, too little too late. The rest went quietly.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Nate McLouth, Chris Davis
HONORABLE MENTION: Kevin Gausman, Prince Fielder, Torii Hunter
NOT SO GOOD: Adam Jones, Jim Leyland

29-24, still in first place by .5, losing streak at 4.

Tigers sapping your strength these days? How’d you like to be an Indians fan right about now? Looks like both teams are trying to stay out of first place. “Go ahead.” “No, after you.” “Please, I insist.” “No, I really couldn’t.” “Age before beauty.” “Ha ha. Seriously, I’ll hold the door for you.”

Justin Verlander will take the mound this afternoon and will presumably do what he has traditionally been so good at. Shutdown performance to stop the skid, stop the bleeding. Someone might want to let the hitters know that innings beyond the 6th are not a post-game light workout, but actually count toward game results and overall statistics.

I’ll be back with a bit of a mundane statistical rundown and save the heavy stuff for tomorrow’s post. Feel free to beat me to the punch with any little statistical tidbits you may care to offer… And here’s that minor statistical time capsule for you:

HITTING:

AVG / OBP / SLG / RBI v AVG OPP%*

.372 Cabrera .446 / .670 / 177%
.326 Peralta .375 / .474 / 110%
.315 Tuiasosopo .448 / .463 / 121%
.312 Hunter .361 / .426 / 100%
.307 Pena .329 / .427 / 86%
.291 Infante .330 / .402 / 73%
.272 Jackson .333 / .371 / 75%
.271 Fielder .393 / .472 / 131%
.265 Garcia .286 / .500 / 164%
.247 Dirks .305 / .377 / 82%
.228 Martinez .273 / .305 / 85%
.176 Kelly .299 / .311 / 82%
.172 Avila .267 / .281 / 58%
.135 Santiago .220 / .243 / 27%

* A bit crude; ignore minor differences due to rounding

PITCHING:

BAA (LHB/RHB) / WHIP / ERA / K-PA% / IP

.156 Valverde (.214/.059) / 0.87 / 3.55 / 22% / 13
.187 Scherzer (.189/.184) / 0.89 / 3.42 / 31% / 76
.193 Benoit (.188/.200) / 1.00 / 1.88 / 32% / 24
.198 Downs* (.194/.200) / 0.99 / 2.82 / 28% / 22
.200 Smyly* (.106/.260) / 1.01 / 2.20 / 26% / 33
.211 Putkonen (.167/.231) / 1.50 / 1.69 / 25% / 5
.233 Ortega (.238/.227) / 1.32 / 3.97 / 20% / 11
.233 Sanchez (.266/.203) / 1.13 / 2.79 / 31% / 71
.241 Alburquerque (.296/.185) / 1.81 / 3.14 / 38% / 14
.261 Verlander (.259/.263) / 1.36 / 3.68 / 29% / 66
.267 Reed (.333/.222) / 1.00 / 2.25 / 7% / 4
.269 Coke* (.150/.344) / 1.30 / 6.46 / 23% / 15
.270 Fister (.222/.312) / 1.21 / 3.28 / 21% / 68
.275 Porcello (.276/.274) / 1.27 / 5.29 / 19% / 51
.417 Dotel (.273/.538)/ 3.00 / 13.50 / 14% / 4
.444 Villareal (.714/.273) / 3.69 / 20.77 / 21% / 4
.455 Rondon (.500/.400) / 3.00 / 11.57 / 7% / 2

* LHP, of course

Today’s “Maybe If We Distract Them With Oranges and Grape Jelly” lineups:

DETROIT

Infante 2B
Dirks RF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Martinez DH
Peralta SS
Avila C
Tuiasosopo LF
Garcia CF

BALTIMORE

McLouth LF
Machado 3B
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Davis 1B
Wieters C
Hardy SS
Dickerson DH
Flaherty 2B

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Orioles 3. Wow! A blowout has rarely been more welcome. The wheels started to come off for Jason Hammel by the 2nd – no real command – when Tuiasosopo scored Martinez from 3B with 2 out after an Avila GIDP with real buzzkill potential. Verlander was good for his 7 innings but not dominant, alternately very sharp and very hittable, especially when he was serving it on a tee to J.J. Hardy (solo shots to LF in the 3rd and the 5th; the first one tied it at 1-1, while the second was more of a consolation prize). The Tigers 4th was just too sweet. 11 men came to the plate and ran the score to 9-1 before it was over. It started with Hammel allowing a HR to V-Mart (RF)… then Peralta (LF)… then Avila (LCF on a nice easy swing). Before Tuiasosopo could make it four in a row, he was drilled by Hammel’s first pitch, and Hammel was tossed without delay (but not without argument). Clearly, Hammel didn’t mean to hit him, but he took that chance with the high and inside after allowing three long balls, and deserved what he got. I was sorry to see him go, because I wanted more HRs. The O’s hurried to ready reliever T.J. McFarland – and the show went on! After Infante had doubled in Tuiasosopo (miraculously scoring from 2B for once!) to make it 5-1, a Dirks walk loaded the bases for Cabrera. I’m thinking no way, don’t hope for too much, they’ll probably walk him in eventually. The count went to 3-2 (still none out, by the way – was this a dream?). But evidently the Showalter/McFarland plan was “don’t give in, try and get him somehow,” and Miggy hit his 200th Tigers HR to LF for the grand salami. 9-1 Tigers. The 4th-5th innings (not to mention 6th) were not easy ones for JV, and the Orioles got to within 9-3 before Fielder ended the scoring by absolutely muscling a pitch from McFarland out the park to CF, on an improbable and atypical (for Prince) sort of swing. Smyly had an easy 8th but a trickier 9th, putting 2 on with none out after losing a 12-pitch battle with Hardy for the walk. It all ended happily when Nate McLouth looked at the last strike in a 3-pitch AB.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander
HONORABLE MENTION: J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante, Matt Tuiasosopo, Drew Smyly, Troy Patton
NOT SO GOOD: Jason Hammel, T.J. McFarland

The Detroit Tigers (29-23, clinging by .5 to first in the AL Central, losing streak at 3) travel to Baltimore and Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (30-24, third place AL East) in a three-game series. Local temperatures will be in the 90s for the day game Saturday, while rain may affect the Sunday game. Looks like it’s going to be a bit hot and sticky all weekend out there.

Torii Hunter will be giving the first couple games (son’s graduation) and possibly the whole series (elbow contusion after being HBP Wednesday) a miss. No shortage of outfielders to fill in, but it does leave the bench a man short. That can be a problem.

The difference in play, if not result, between the Rangers and the Pirates series is a positive one. Still, it’s abundantly clear that the Detroit Tigers aren’t yet ready to play with the big boys. Maybe that corner could have been turned last night. It wasn’t. Now they face a peer, another good team that can’t quite get it all together. It’s the Series Of The AL Also-Rans. If you think that’s harsh, you must be more satisfied with the prospect of finishing 7th best in the AL (playoffs or no) than I am.

The Baltimore Orioles at a glance are a hitting team; pitching is their weakness. Let’s pause for emphasis on HITTING; the Tigers have faced some good offensive teams, but have not yet seen the likes of this lineup. Five regulars are batting .290 or above, and six have 29 RBI or more. With Chris Davis in there, O’s fans are among the few in the AL who can say “Miguel who?” Not only that, but Baltimore is also speedy (very) and among the best defensive teams in the AL. The key will be jumping on that Achilles’ heel of theirs: Pitching. It won’t be easy. None of their opponents have decisively gotten the best of them (think Tigers v. Angels) thus far. But scoring at Camden Yards hasn’t been a problem for the Tigers the past couple seasons.

Friday, May 31, 7:05 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer v. RHP Miguel Gonzalez

Gonzalez wasn’t so hot last July against the Tigers, but he’s had decent outings recently. Max has been quite superb of late, and strikeouts are really the least of it. Much more to Max than Ks these days. Last July, though, the Orioles had their way with Scherzer in Baltimore, and all those bad dudes are still there to face him again.

Saturday, June 1, 4:05 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jason Hammel

Hammel has been good the last couple starts. Against the Tigers last July, he left the game after only 3 innings, having allowed 2 runs and struck out 5. Hammel is the kind of pitcher Jhonny Peralta scorches. Justin is on the rebound from a rough stretch. Last July at Camden Yards, he was dominant in a shutout win. It is no exaggeration to say that Verlander owns current Orioles hitters. Not a lineup that will faze him in the slightest. Cause for worry?

Sunday, June 2, 1:35 PM EDT: RHP Rick Porcello v. RHP Kevin Gausman

Gausman is a rookie making his 3rd start who’s been hammered the first two. “Bad boding” for Sunday, as Billfer used to say? Rick is coming off a career start (with no decision) against the Pirates. Last August (at Comerica), Porcello had himself a good game and then blew it in the 7th (Chris Davis 3-run shot). Current Orioles find Rick quite hittable, but we can hope that this doesn’t necessarily mean scoreable-upon.

The Orioles bullpen isn’t terribly imposing, but then neither is that of the Tigers. Matching up either team’s big gun 3-4-5 hitters against bullpens, who’s got the edge? Tigers do. Might want to go light on the Coke, however. Even against lefties Davis and Markakis. O’s have barely seen Smyly and Downs. Often an advantage to the pitcher there.

In what I hope will become a personal tradition, the series-remainder game posts are going to be stat-heavy and comment-light.

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

Gimme dat lineup, Coleman-Man….

POST-GAME: Orioles 7, Tigers 5. Tough one to swallow, eh? Things got off to a sunny start in the 1st with Cabrera’s 2-run homer to right off Miguel Gonzalez. Max dodged the fearsome-first-inning O’s with a quiet 1st, but his 2nd was labored and slow. He escaped with only the sac fly allowed, but his troubles continued in the 3rd when Adam Jones connected on a 2-run HR to CF. 3-2 Baltimore. The Tigers followed the good script by coming back to tie it in the 4th on a kind of manufactured run. It started with a Martinez soft single, but through the good fortune of V-Mart getting erased on a fielder’s choice, Peralta came to be standing on 2B when clutch Garcia knocked one through the middle. Scherzer – once again (talk about a script) – righted himself after the rockiness and only grew stronger, retiring his last 16 batters in order and going double-digit with the strikeouts. 8 of those outs were flyballs, some deep, but an out is an out. The Tigers took the lead back in the 5th, loading the bases and threatening to break it open. Give Martinez credit for finding another gear and beating the DP relay to first, thus driving in the 4-3 run, but… but… Garcia gave the Tigers an insurance run and a 5-3 lead in the 6th inning, last one for starter Gonzalez, with a solo HR just over the RF scoreboard. That’s how you put the forth back in the back and forth game, right? Max and Avisail. Victory appeared within reach. Valverde came in for the save in the 9th. I wasn’t nervous. Nick Markakis homered to RF to lead it off. Garcia in RF almost took it away from him, got glove on it and everything. Mistimed leap? Give him an A+ for effort – it was that close. Oh well. 5-4 Tigers, none out and none on. I still wasn’t too nervous. But Valverde got himself in a heap of trouble, before almost getting himself miraculously out of it. Two popouts with men on 1st and 3rd – talk about dodging bullets. The sudden good fortune couldn’t stop now, could it? It could. Falling behind 2-0 on Chris Dickerson, Valverde’s 4th pitch wound up in the right-center field seats for the walkoff.

Kelly gave a rather stark illustration of his good and bad. Weak contact, weak outs, two with a runner in scoring position. But fine, difference-making defense in CF. J.J Hardy and Manny Machado made strong and smart plays on the left side, but Peralta was no slouch ranging far right to keep Jones’s 9th inning hit to the SS-3B hole an IF single rather than the double it might have been. Next play, the fleet Garcia in RF cut off the Davis smash to the gap to hold him to a single and keep Jones from scoring the tying run. Avila Watch: Still pathetic. V-Mart Watch: If you doubt that this guy is a liability who ought to be spending some of his time on the bench, see Innings 5 and 7. It’s been going on all season. Big Swinging Jhonny didn’t help the cause by going down in flames in the 5th, and he was right behind Victor again in the 7th inning rally kill. We can curse Valverde, but those 5th and 7th innings were also What Might Have Been so that we didn’t have to. We might not have had to see him at all. Give the Orioles pen some credit for keeping the walkoff in order. A mix and match of four arms over 3 innings kept Detroit off the board.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Chris Dickerson, Max Scherzer, Adam Jones
HONORABLE MENTION:  Avisail Garcia, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Andy Dirks
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde

24-19, 1.5 in back of Cleveland, JV on the rebound vs. Jimenez the Menace coming up.

Well, what do you know – Tui got a start against a righty. Nothing to show, took the ball for a ride the first time and struck out twice after that, but I’m still all for it.

Is there a chance that this might not be the last year for Jhonny Peralta at SS? With Detroit, I mean.

Say what you will about Don Kelly, but when was the last time you saw him have a truly lousy at-bat? It certainly doesn’t happen often. You can say much the same for Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo.

Let’s keep up the pressure on the “let someone split time with V-Mart at DH” front. I think it’s helping.

Is it mere coincidence that Marcus Thames and Matt Tuiasosopo have… oh, never mind. It’s an empty thought, you might say. Free Matt Tuiasosopo!

Last May 22, the Tigers were 20-21 and about to meet the Indians for the first time, in Cleveland. They would be swept in three, an insult that kicked off what were probably the darkest days of 2012, days which saw them tumble to their nadir of 25-31. Things have gotten better since.

Y’all come back now for the post-game, y’hear? We’ll crack open a Vernor’s and listen to some Bob Seger. Justin Verlander’s dominant performance will call for some kind of celebration…

POST-GAME: Tigers 11, Indians 7. A wild one. Not back and forth as the score might seem to indicate. The Tigers never trailed, and yet it seems like they came from behind, doesn’t it? Given a quick 2-0 lead, Verlander was in trouble after striking out the first two, and the 37-pitch 2nd inning was downright painful to watch. He looked absolutely lost. How only one run scored, we may never know. Jiminez had troubles of his own, no command, and the Tigers sent 9 men to the plate in the break-it-open 3rd. He was lucky to leave after 4 down only 6-2, and then Detroit greeted David Huff rudely in the 5th with a bottom of the order rally that plated three and featured the marvel of a CS (Infante) that scored Kelly from 3B. Verlander had righted himself for the 3rd and 4th, apparently after some off the field consultation with Jeff Jones, and with a 9-2 lead, we were settling in comfortably, weren’t we? But the other Justin showed up for the 5th, and three batters in, Carlos Santana was rounding the bases. 9-5. With only one out, the rain began to pour down. Oh no – not even in the books yet! After an hour delay, Verlander managed to retire the side. Smyly came on in the 6th and threw the same first pitch he always throws. Unfortunately, Yan Gomes was waiting for it, and it ended up in the stands. Not a good inning for Drew, and afterwards it stood at 9-7 Tigers. After Putkonen had pitched a very reassuring 7th, again came the rain and another long delay. When play resumed, it was before a mostly empty ballpark. In the 8th, with Dirks on, Miggy hit one of his deceptive fly balls that just kept going and going. CF Michael Bourn had it at the wall – and then he didn’t, because it had bounced straight out of his glove and over the wall! 11-7. Sweet insurance. The life went out of the Indians and really the game itself at that point. Benoit and Valverde did creditable work to finish the game against the lifeless Indians batters. I think Jose’s little celebration of a strike two (Santana) had to do with getting a swing and miss on something other than a fastball.

Hunter’s “error” on Raburn’s “single” – gloved and dropped flyball it took effort to go back for – is mostly notable we because we expect more from him. It did cost a (tying) run that might have been crucial some other game. Bourn in CF, despite the freak play on the Miggy HR, was busy and stellar defensively throughout the game. Don’t look now, but solid-but-ordinary Peralta made a great play on the Gomes “IF single” that was actually an out. Quite a few notable defensive plays in the game overall, Tigers getting their share or more. Pena was really stepping and throwing lively in the “dead 9th” to run down the 3rd strike that got away and nail Santana at 1B.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Brayan Pena, Victor Martinez, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, Carlos Santana, Luke Putkonen
NOT SO GOOD: Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, David Huff

The Detroit Tigers (23-19) travel to Cleveland (28-15) for a two-game set and a veritable rematch in several ways beyond the obvious: The Indians are hot (still); the Tigers are coming off two consecutive losses to another “red team” (again), and; the pitching matchups are also reruns. This time, the Tigers find themselves looking up at the first-place Indians in the standings from 2.5 games back and are just trying to keep pace rather than pull away.

Tuesday, May 21, 7:05 PM ET: RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Corey Kluber
Wednesday, May 22, 7:05 PM ET: RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

There is a good chance that thunderstorms and rain forecast for the Cleveland area may affect both games.

Last time around, the Tigers hit LP Kluber early and often. Avila and Miggy were the stars of a 15-hit attack that didn’t stop, even against the Indians bullpen. The Indians managed to wring 4 runs out of 5 hits (and no walks) against WP Scherzer, who seemed within reach of a complete game after a strong 8th. High hopes after that 10-4 win. The next day, Verlander set the tone for his 5-inning outing by walking in a run in the 1st, while Jimenez shut down the Tigers. Detroit battled back, with little thanks to their own bullpen, against Cleveland’s to make it a thriller, but two late rallies died courtesy of Tuiasosopo and (final out) Miggy. JV might want to study up on Max’s game plan this time around. Or just pitch better.

NEWS

Evan Reed has been optioned to Toledo and Luke Putkonen again called up. Not a move against Reed so much as a move for Putkonen, aided by technicalities. No complaints about Reed, who looked pretty good. Nor about Putkonen. Keep making those moves until it comes together.

From mlb.com:

[Miguel Cabrera] became the first player in Major League history to go 4-for-4 with three home runs, five RBIs and four runs scored in defeat.

Remarkably, the Tigers also lost — 5-4 to the Athletics — in Cabrera’s first career three-homer game, and he is the eighth player in Major League history to belt three long balls in defeat more than once. It happened to Johnny Mize four times and to Babe Ruth, Ernie Banks, Dave Kingman, Glenn Davis, Joe Carter and Sammy Sosa each twice.

TALK

I’m as quick to shout “clown show” as anyone, but if the shoe had been on the foot of the Rangers in the 11-8 loss, we’d probably be talking more about how the Tigers capitalized or made it happen than “lack of baseball fundamentals” on the part of Texas. The clutch sinking liner (that some guy misplayed into a double), the great bunt (that baffled the other team’s infield), etc.. That said, a whole lot sure did go wrong for one game. Or one series, for that matter. It’s really too bad that it overshadowed Miggy’s monster game Sunday night.

First 10-10, then 19-11, now 23-19. Ups and downs. Seems like we’re on the down elevator, until you realize that 13-9 is a .591 win %. All in how you look at it. Also, those past 22 games have seen a number of hot starts turn into slow fades (Jackson, Hunter, Fielder.. and dare I say Verlander?), and yet the team hasn’t really faded. Miguel Cabrera’s Triple Crown start is all the more remarkable for its consistency through 25% of the season. It’s really quite amazing.

A sustained 13-9 pace would take the Tigers to 88-64 with 10 left to play. If Miggy were to finish the year at his subpar (ha ha) 2012 clip, he would finish at .352, 47 HR, 152 RBI.

What’s up with Victor Martinez? I don’t think you can call it “rust” at this point. More like decline. Bat speed? Not seeing the pitches like he used to? Temporary or the first sign of a permanent decline? What to do? Well, you can hardly bench a full-time DH. That would be to exchange low value for no value. But it would be nice to see more ABs in Victor’s stead from guys who are hitting. Like maybe every other day. I’d like to see Tuiasosopo and Dirks in the same lineup once in a while, for a while. It’s simply not the case that Tui needs to be protected from RHP or Dirks from LHP.

While there are practical reasons Avisail Garcia can’t stick around when Austin Jackson returns, it occurs to me that if the idea is to give him regular ABs… how about starting now? Having an OF who can play all three positions with aplomb – that would be Don Kelly – is a good thing. You can bat .200 under these circumstances and still be valuable to a hitting-laden team like the Tigers. That’s still no reason to start Kelly over Garcia in the brief time Garcia will be up. Is it? Is Garcia not the better hitter? There have been some hiccups in the starting rotation lately that I suppose you could call a bit of a “correction.” All the more reason to help the offense rise to the occasion and carry the team for a spell.

Would more playing time for Pena and less for Avila help? Would it hurt? It’s hard to watch Avila at the plate sometimes.

The Tigers have demonstrated an admirable “pitch or switch” policy so far. Villareal, Alburquerque, Rondon – all relegated to Toledo until further notice, and rightly so. Coke and Dotel were, in my view, “optioned” to the DL. Maybe it’s time for hit or sit, at least for guys in 42-game slumps. I don’t know. Getting a little restless.

I haven’t heard a word about when or if Octavio Dotel will return. Have you? To be honest, I kind of forgot he was on the team.

Stay tuned for the post-game. Refreshments will be served.

POST-GAME: Tigers 5, Indians 1. Thanks. We needed that. The game started with a familiar feel. 1st inning, good hitting opponent with speed gets things cooking against a good Tigers starter (as if there were another kind). Then Max Scherzer turned in the finest Tigers pitching performance of 2013 to date. Sorry, Anibal, but those Braves were hacking. These Indians were not. After 2 hits and a walk in the 1st, Scherzer recorded the better part of a perfect game – 22 consecutive batters retired. Still, it was 1-0 Cleveland until the 6th, courtesy of a fine performance by Corey Kluber, who was outdueling Max until he was done in by the long ball. I had a feeling the Tigers would break through, and Andy Dirks tied it with a solo shot to RF. A Torii Hunter double later, Miguel Cabrera made it look easy (like you or I could do it) to reach for a ball low in the zone and knock it out of the yard to dead center. Has anyone ever made it look that easy? 3-1 Tigers. At this point the bullpen worries start to creep in. But Scherzer only grew stronger, striking out the side in the 8th, and again there was hope that Leyland might let him stay on for his first MLB complete game. Barring that, there was prayer for insurance runs, and the Tigers did not disappoint in the 9th. It started with an Avila walk, and ended with 3-hit Victor Martinez taking a called 3rd with the bases loaded, but in between there were clutch knocks and RBIs from Dirks and Fielder (delivering after the IBB to Miggy, thank goodness, after a near-repeat of his 5 strikeout Mariners game). 5-1 Tigers, Valverde on the mound in the bottom of the 9th. Bourn singles, steals 2B. Have we seen this movie before, or something like it? Valverde. How does he do it? Nothing but a fastball, nothing that works, anyway. No denying that the velocity is back, however. Two popups and a deep flyball later, it was over, two Indians stranded.

There was a fine catch in LF by Tuiasosopo. There was a good read and good baserunning by Avila going from 1B to 3B on the Infante single, good for an important 9th inning run. I’m not sold on the lack of range case against Peralta this season, but the Bourn single up the middle against Valverde was an argument in its favor. There was a funny instance of Prince trying to get the call on an inside strike (called 3rd) by sticking his elbow out. Didn’t work.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Max Scherzer, Andy Dirks, Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Victor Martinez, Corey Kluber, Cody Allen

20-14, 1st place, 1 game up on Cleveland. Hypotenuse game of the series coming up, and it will be for all the marbles. Or at least half of them.

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Get Al Alburquerque out of Detroit. At least for a while. Please. This has gone on long enough. Game 34 was Tigers 6, Indians 4, Tigers Bullpen -3.* The bullpen pooped the bed yet again. What is that – 10 times this season already? Take away the walk-offs – it happens – and it’s still 7 times. (I think. I’ll check it out.) Rather a lot for a team with 14 losses.

* I’m conveniently leaving the Indians pen out of it.

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Danny Worth has been out with a heel contusion for a while, but is close to rejoining the Mud Hens. This is good. We’d all like to see him raise that batting average down there. Along with Quintin Berry. Makes you wonder what’s happened to them. Devastated by not making the big club out of camp? The International League is a pitcher’s league, true, but the numbers on these guys… yikes. Up and down the Toledo roster, the batting numbers are pretty frightening. Only 1B Jordan Lennerton has put up anything halfway decent.

*********

Even though the Tigers fell short last night, you’ve got to be encouraged by rally after rally in the late innings. 7th, 8th, 9th – they just kept coming. And speaking of encouragement, the good signs for Alex Avila keep coming every now and again. On what looked to be an effortless swing the first time up, he sent a fly to deep CF that chased Michael Bourn back and back and back.

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OK, excluding the walk-off loses, I count (7) games so far where the bullpen has either lost the game outright (1), blown up (3), or let the score slip out of reach (3). While we’re playing the blame game for losses, let’s assign (2) to starting pitching and give the batters (5) (which will include the 3 walk-offs, all in low-scoring games). Come to the bullpen’s defense, someone. I’m sure there is something positive to say. I feel more like being negative after being disappointed by Smyly and Al-Al (and all the more disappointed given the low pressure nature of their latest assignment).

Tigers pitching in the Late/Close split (includes some but not much starting pitching): 11th in the AL in ERA, 10th in BAA, 9th in WHIP. Tied for 2nd (worst) in runs allowed.

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What’s up with Austin Jackson? All the good numbers are going down down down over his last 19 starts (though he still manages to score runs). But there has been some hitting anemia going on in that leadoff spot. It’s not good. While Victor Martinez has actually been worse over that same stretch (that’s right – you have to consider that he’s “coming around” only by comparison to an especially horrid start), AJax’s fade has been more damaging to the team.

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Let us take a moment to recognize the main reason Detroit has won 20 and could “easily” be 25-9 right now, and to congratulate the contributors: The starting rotation. Only 2 stinkers in 34 games. 17-9 with a 3.27 (AL best) ERA, and also the fewest runs overall allowed. Only 11 HR allowed (AL best). Tops in K/9, 3rd best in walks allowed. 2nd in WHIP, and 6th in BAA. Is that wow good? I’m saying it is.

Rick “The Outlier” Porcello takes the mound today, with (individual, positive sense) regression to the mean on his and our side.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 4, TIGERS 3 (10 INNINGS). Quality starts for Rick Porcello and Zach McAllister, but hardly easy going. An exciting one, but also a heartbreaker of a giveaway. The bullpen blows another one, right? Yes and no… maybe. Each team paid for costly mistakes early. 3rd inning, Torii Hunter, yet again, overthrew the cutoff man (and the throw was wide of 3B besides) to allow Michael Brantley to take 2B on a single. Brantley scores as a result. 4th inning, Lonnie Chisenhall’s throwing error on a routine play leads to an Omar Infante sac fly and a Tigers 3-2 lead. Then it became a contest in stranded runners and failed rallies. McAllister, incredibly, with bases loaded and 1 out, retires Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder easily. Porcello gets Asdrubal Cabrera to ground into a bases-loaded, inning-ending 4-6-3 (very sharp play by Infante). Phil Coke gets Brantley to ground into a 2 men on, inning-ending 4-6-3. But then came the 9th, when “closer” Jose Valverde reminded us how things can go when you’ve got nothing but a fastball and can’t locate it, and Darin Downs reminded us that he’s not a shutdown guy, and meanwhile the bats have nodded off completely. Valverde walking Michael Bourn (same as a double, essentially) to lead off the 9th was where the game went irretrievably south. Yes, make no mistake – this one was on the bullpen. No shortage of clutch failure, though, spotlight on Miggy and Prince. Victor Martinez looked absolutely sickly at the plate. Let it be known that Miggy committed 2 more errorless errors at 3B. Best play of the game was Jhonny Peralta to Brayan Pena to gun down Asdrubal at the plate in the 10th. Two outs, no runs in! That should have turned the tide. The pinch-hitting by Mark Reynolds and Bourn won the game for Terry Francona and Cleveland. Meanwhile, Ryan Raburn was 0 for 2 but made a very nice play in RF and another great effort there, more than can be said for Hunter today.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Mark Reynolds, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn
HONORABLE MENTION: Rick Porcello, Zach McAllister, Brayan Pena, Yan Gomes, Joe Smith, Phil Coke, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde, Darin Downs, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder

20-13, in first place by 1.5 games.

Is this the first Saturday night game of the year? Seems like it.

Phil Coke has been activated, and Luke Putkonen has been optioned back to Toledo. I was thinking Alburquerque was next in line for Toledo, but instead the Tigers may opt for the ever-popular retroactively injured thing next time he struggles with his control.

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Some of my favorite “newfangled” baseball stats are WPA (win probability added) and RE24 (base-out runs or runs saved). They’re all over the place here, and I especially like to look at them in player game logs, the box scores, and the full play-by-plays (scrolling down in the box scores). If you don’t know what they are and mean, well, check it out. You’ll figure it out.

I’m not much for WAR. To me, it’s a fantasy baseball stat, though I’m aware that GMs and agents playing the real-life version of fantasy baseball actually use it. The thing I love about WPA is that it allows you to look at contributions to wins/losses on a PA/BF by PA/BF (plate appearance/batter faced) or game to game basis. It gives you about the most objective “game score” for a player that I can imagine. RE24 is a kind of productivity score along these same lines, though not one tied to win/loss probability based on before/after game situation. WPA and RE24 can be looked at in the aggregate like any other stat, of course, but then you have to consider adjustments for opportunity, same as you would when comparing HR or RBI totals between batters with different numbers of PA. I find them useful in any event, but most interesting as ways to gauge performance in individual games or plays within games. The only drawback I find is that they cannot really account for many significant positive defensive plays, though I suppose you could invent some tweaks to introduce defense as more of a factor. (The difficulty is mainly that it’s hard to quantify “what if?” situations.) So it’s mostly a batter/pitcher kinda thing, the defense being an assumption.

I keep meaning to post some interesting analyses that utilize WPA and RE24, like this one for 2013 Tigers hitters through 32 games, for instance:

WIN CONTRIBUTION PER PLAY (SCORE)

CABRERA +955
FIELDER +512
TUIASOSOPO +487
HUNTER +435
JACKSON +185
KELLY 0
PERALTA -073
INFANTE -167
AVILA -297
DIRKS -306
MARTINEZ -606
SANTIAGO -1481
PENA -1500

PRODUCTIVITY PER PLAY (SCORE)

TUIASOSOPO +188
CABRERA +138
FIELDER +102
HUNTER +65
JACKSON +19
PERALTA +12
INFANTE -13
DIRKS -16
KELLY -58
MARTINEZ -67
AVILA -95
PENA -130
SANTIAGO -178

But each time I try, I collapse under the sheer weight of it all. I doubt that I’ll ever have time in between games to work up the kind of comprehensive yet approachable overview I aspire to. The fun thing about it is that hidden truths are revealed, some of them contrary to what the more visible aggregate stats are telling you. Such as, to simplify greatly: Don Kelly isn’t really “crap,” comparatively speaking (I’m looking at you, VMart), and Doug Fister hasn’t been as good as you might think. Also, looking back on a box score and scrolling down to the “Top 5 Plays,” you may discover that “oh yeah, that was kinda cool” was actually the most significant play of the game in terms of WPA. All in all, it just gives you a broader view of where the positive and negative contributions are coming from. The cool thing about RE24 in a box score is that one number summarizes the productive sum total of every PA or BF. All “1 IP, 0 ER” and “0 for 3″ and”1 for 4” are not created equally.

So check it out.

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Tonight’s “Victor Martinez is available to pinch hit for Victor Martinez” lineups:

DETROIT – It’s the A-team again, behind JV, no less

CLEVELAND – Raburn-less again, go figure

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
RF Nick Swisher
C Carlos Santana
DH Giambi
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
3B Chisenhall

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It appears from the latest forecast, which I seldom interpret correctly, that there may be a rain delay and/or rain early in tonight’s game.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 7, TIGERS 6. Cleveland was hitting Verlander’s fastball at will from the get-go, and Jimenez was just too good. You could see this one going down the tubes on 2 plays: a) Tigers 4th, Miggy and Fielder on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out… Martinez grounds out to 1B, no chance for a score, and then Dirks strikes out way too easily; b) Indians 5th, what starts as a great play by Fielder to step on 1B and then double up Swisher in a rundown ends with Swisher (who soon scores) at 2B on a ridiculous throwing error by Miggy. Then Smyly and Albuquerque crap out, score going from 4-1 to 6-1 Indians. All over, right? NO! VMart starts a sweet 4-run rally that includes a couple good PH at-bats from Tuiasosopo and Pena. Then… the sickening Al-Al lets in an 8th inning Indians insurance run before Downs saves the day with bases loaded. Tigers 8th, and things are cooking until Tuiasosopo grounds into a 2-on, inning-ending DP. With Perez in for the Tribe in the 9th, it’s not looking good until a Swisher error puts Pena on 1B with one out. Hunter delivers a 2-out RBI to make it 7-6 Indians, and suddenly the win seems not only possible, but likely. Because MIGGY is at the plate with men on 1st and 2nd. A truly lousy swing and miss on pitch 2 turns this into a crap AB, and his weak grounder to the left side overtakes the Tuiasosopo GIDP as the big plate failure of the game (Tuiasosopo actually had a pretty decent AB overall there). No joy in Mudville. Very exciting game, though. Kipnis’s incredible play for the force at 2B and the second out in the 9th on the Jackson almost-single up the middle was the game-saver for the Indians.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Kipnis
HONORABLE MENTION: Darin Downs, A. Cabrera, Michael Bourn, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Al Alburquerque, Indians bullpen, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks

Were you disappointed by the short series against the Nationals? I sure was. Sweep the Astros, fall flat against the Washington National Angels (can’t they beat teams that wear red?)…what does that spell? It spells O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D. Until the next bout of euphoria, anyway.

The recently somewhat deflated and first place by a nose Detroit Tigers (19-13) return home following a 4-2 road trip to take on the red-hot Cleveland Indians (18-14) in a three-game series.

Friday, May 10, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Corey Kluber vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Saturday, May 11, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Sunday, May 12, 1:08 PM ET: RHP Zach McAllister vs. RHP Rick Porcello

WEATHER: I’m sorry I didn’t get this up right away as I’d intended. Rain could be a factor Friday and Saturday evenings, and even on Sunday. Game time conditions are, in any event, not likely to be pleasant tonight and on Sunday. Winds will be getting stronger over the course of the weekend, and Sunday is going to feel like early April.

This is the first real divisional showdown of the young season, which kind of makes you wish Kevin Verlander in Dallas (7-3) or Coleman Scherzer (8-5) was on the game post mound, but Smoking Rick Loon (4-5) will give it his best shot. Cleveland is only a game behind the Tigers at this point and it’s really no fluke, but on the other hand, their recent history is to start strong (18-14 in 2012, 20-12 in 2011) before eventually fading with a vengeance. Sweeping them out of town could put them out of sight for a bit, but not out of mind. Recall that they were an early pain last season – the Indians took the first 5 games. And 10 of 18 overall.

Anyway, we Tigers fans find ourselves in an odd position for the month of May: No positional controversies. Aside from a bit of bullpen sorting out that remains to be done, the pieces are largely in place. For once, the focus is on execution on the field. That’s refreshing. And, by and large, with a 19-13 record to back it up, the Tigers are getting it done. It took Detroit 96 games (and the departed Jacob Turner’s first MLB win) to get to 8 games over .500 in 2012; it took 30 games this year, shaky bullpen and all.

KLUBER v SCHERZER: Current Tigers have done rather poorly against Kluber in a small-sample 44 PA. (BENCH ALERT: Kelly could start in place of Dirks. Actually, this could be the day to “rest” Cabrera as the DH and start Tuiasosopo at 3B. But 3 days off in a row for Victor? OK. maybe not.) Last time Kluber pitched at Comerica was September 3, 2012; he held the Tigers down and outdueled Anibal Sanchez for the win. Current Indians are at a disadvantage vs. Scherzer, with a .664 OPS in 134 PA. Last time out against Cleveland at Comerica (August 5, 2012), though, they hit him hard, and he only lasted 5 innings. Prediction: Runs will score in this one, most of them for Detroit. I cannot guarantee that the bullpen will hold onto the lead.

JIMENEZ v VERLANDER: Everything about Jimenez’s considerable history against the Tigers and current Tigers and at Comerica says Detroit has his number. (BENCH ALERT: Outside chance of a Pena start.) In 232 PA, current Indians are no more successful vs. Verlander than anyone else is. Michael Brantley’s numbers are so good that we can expect JV to hang a golden sombrero on him. (Any and all predictions I make from here on out on these matchups will be of the stray from the norm/regress to the mean variety. These predictions are silly, and I should really give them up.) Justin did not face the Indians at home in 2012. Prediction: Pitching duel.

McALLISTER v PORCELLO:  52 PA is not much history for current Tigers against McAllister, but Austin Jackson might be looking forward to it. (BENCH ALERT: Santiago could get the call, not that I advocate resting Peralta or Infante at home.) McAllister faced the Tigers twice at Comerica in 2012, pitching fairly well in both Cleveland wins. Current Indians have Porcello’s number in 159 PA. 7 HR in there, too. Porcello’s last time out against the Indians at Comerica (September 4, 2012) was your typical OK/living on the edge outing for Rick, winnable but for a little more run support. Prediction: Porcello doesn’t go more than 5, but the Tigers put such a beat-down on McAllister and even the Indians bullpen that it doesn’t matter.

The Indians lead the AL in HR, paced by Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, and are one of the top 3 in hitting overall. Best on the road, incidentally. CF Michael Bourn will be returning to the lineup for the series as well. The fair-to-middlin’ starting pitching has exceeded all expectations, and their 4th-best BAA of .238 compares favorably to Detroit’s .249. Their bullpen is top-tier and arguably what the Tigers might have the most cause to fear. Scoring early is recommended. At least the Tigers won’t have to face Vinnie Pestano this time (out with injury). Actually, Pestano and Chris Perez are the only guys with frightening stats against current non-Cabrera Tigers. So why am I thinking Cleveland’s bullpen has been such a pain?

It might be more pertinent to consider how the Tigers bullpen matches up against current Indians. Detroit heads into the first game with everyone in the pen available except (probably) Smyly and Benoit. Let’s see… Nick Swisher is hard on Valverde. Benoit, gets hit by A. Cabrera and Swisher. Not enough PA for the other guys, unless Coke comes back… OK, Coke shouldn’t really pitch against the Indians.

The ever-controversial (for us) Ryan Raburn, recent AL Player of the Week, makes his unexpectedly triumphant return to Detroit as a Cleveland Indian. I expect every AB, every pitch, every play in the field, to be seen as vindication of opinions for and against him. In reality, there’s no bad blood or “extra incentive” at play here, of course. Raburn was well-liked on the team and has earned Rod Allen’s seal of approval as a “good dude,” and I believe everything Rod Allen says. So I hope the fans at Comerica are nice about it. I also hope that Raburn goes 0 for whatever and commits as many errors as possible. Good dude and all. With Bourn back in CF, it remains to be seen how much we’ll see of Raburn. Some, surely.

Tonight’s “Doug Fister is available to pinch hit for Alex Avila” lineups:

DETROIT

The usual “A-team” lineup you know by heart

CLEVELAND

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
DH Swisher
C Santana
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
RF Stubbs
3B Chisenhall

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Indians 4. Max seemed quite hittable at first, but that didn’t last, aside from the new prospective Tiger-killer candidate Nick Swisher. Still, I can see Scherzer winning 20 games this year with a +4.00 ERA. Kluber was hittable right away, and it was only a matter of time. Prince’s first-pitch bomb in the bottom of the 3rd was the exclamation point on that, and Miggy’s 3-run shot in the 4th put this one away. If there was a turning point, it might have been the Tigers not getting doubled off from 1B on two early IF line drives. Torii Hunter had the unusual experience of canceling his own RBI by getting tagged out at 1B on a single in the 2nd inning – big heads-up play by cutoff man Mark Reynolds at 1B. That changed 4-1 to 3-1 and ended what could have been a devastating inning; this could have been bigger than it turned out to be. Hunter also played a part in another (shallow RF) gaffe scored as a hit; on Hunter, not Infante, as I saw it. And then there was the Swisher RF double turned triple…

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Nick Swisher, Alex Avila, Omar Infante, Jhonny Peralta
NOT SO GOOD: Corey Kluber, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn