All posts by Smoking Loon
Game 2014.113: Tigers at Blue Jays
Game 2014.105: White Sox at Tigers
Baseball Reference Game Preview
John Danks vs. Drew Smyly
Another hilariously unlikely game last night, one that fell our way this time. What novelty will today bring?
The first 5 innings worth of Drew Smyly’s last outing against, oh, who even remembers, because they were invisible, was far and away the most stunningly dominant performance of 2014 for any Tigers starter. Can he possibly come close to that today? If the law of averages makes us cautiously pessimistic in that regard, the good news is that Detroit only has to score 3 to reach 14 for the series and assure themselves of a series win. That’s the plan. It has the benefit of disallowing more than 2 for the White Sox, which could mean – no, must mean – that our savior Joakim Soria will finally pitch a clean inning as a Tiger. I’ve got it all worked out, except for how the Tigers will score. I’ve got it! Something really bizarre, like a three-run homer for Miguel Cabrera. I know, I know… but the scouts do report that the guy has shown flashes of power and could, over time, develop into a 20-25 HR guy.
So, what do you people think? Does Detroit need to make a deal before the imminent trade deadline? Another interesting twist on the speculation comes from Jason Beck. I suppose I should have known better than to think that the idea of moving Smyly to the bullpen had completely gone away, though I still wish it would.
Game 2014.104: White Sox at Tigers
Baseball Reference Game Preview
Let me offer the following radical theory as to why the Tigers lose when they lose: The players didn’t play well enough. I know I’m going out on a limb to suggest that players on the field are responsible for making the plays, getting the outs, and scoring the runs, but I’ve decided to make this my bully pulpit for such outlandish, unheard of, and totally wild speculation.
Another game coming up. Another chance to knock ’em dead. I wouldn’t get too carried away with dire assessments. Baseball fans are a study in confirmation bias slanted toward the negative. I’m no exception. But I try to resist.
Game 2014.103: White Sox at Tigers
Baseball Reference Game Preview
Jose Quintana vs. Anibal Sanchez
Would you trade the boom and bust of a typical MLB offense for something more consistent? The Detroit Tigers have scored 476 runs. They did not but could have done so by scoring (in any order) 5, 5, and 4 runs in any consecutive three games, consistently and without fail. Would that have been better?
There are two answers, the simplified one and the more accurate one. First: Yes. Second: No.
“More than the other team” is still the best plan I’ve heard. Not easy to pull off when you’re scoring 1, 0, and 1. A noble experiment, but it doesn’t add up to 14. 14 every 3, the key to .600. It’s The Baseball Diet.
Game 2014.95: Tigers 5, Indians 1
Baseball Reference Game Preview
Josh Tomlin vs. Drew Smyly for the Sunday day game.
Exactly two months ago, The Bad Times began with three losses in a row to the Indians. Astonishing losses, really. Just like the last three.
Offenses sputter. It happens. Big name, big money closers fail. This also happens. One situation is more dire than the other. What to do with Joe Nathan has become the question of the day.
Games 2014.93-94: Indians 6-5, Tigers 2-2
Baseball Reference Game Preview
Makeup doubleheader today, Corey Kluber vs. Drew VerHagen in the 1 o’clock game and Zach McAllister vs. Max Scherzer in the 7 o’clock reprise.
The outlook for seeing Joel Hanrahan as a Tiger some time in 2014 has not improved. The rumors surrounding the acquisitions of Joakim Soria or Joaquin Benoit are heating up.
Game 2014.92: Indians 9, Tigers 3
Baseball Reference Game Preview
Trevor Bauer vs. Anibal Sanchez tonight.
Victor is back in the lineup. Andy Dirks won’t be back for a while longer than a while. The Tigers went back to the Draw-ing board and ended up with two Drews: VerHagen will make his MLB debut in the Saturday doubleheader.
Game 2014.85: Rays 7, Tigers 3
David Price vs. Rick Porcello tonight. This is your typical pitcher’s duel setup, meaning that the final score will be 9-8 or something.
Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB
Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB
Let’s be fair. In spite of a couple eggs laid just lately (and not goose eggs), the starting rotation has carried (and dropped, and carried again) the Tigers to the good record they have. That’s how baseball works. It’s harder than it used to be to slug your way out of a bad pitching staff. But with a couple bad starts, or at least failed ones, fresh in our minds, let’s wallow in…
It’s no surprise that you’d have a losing record in failed starts, but 2-17? Wow. Gotta pick ’em up a little better than that, eh? The flip side is that Detroit is 46-19 (.708) in games where the starter gave the team a fair to excellent chance of winning. Let’s put that in our pipes and smoke it.
J.D. MARTINEZ, 2014 EXTRAPOLATED TO 162 GAMES
J.D. MARTINEZ, CAREER 162 GAME EXTRAPOLATION
TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Victor against Price could be will be was sorely missed.
NOTABLE (PREGAME): Yesterday, if you happened to take a (long) nap during the 5th and 6th innings, you saw a pretty good game, aside from a rather persistent defensive clown show. So forget it – I guess there was no good game any way you slice it. Sanchez ruled through 4, and then the wheels came off. And would someone tell me why he had such a hard time putting away Ryan Hanigan (!) with 2 strikes?? That was the first sign of trouble. Let’s make a note of this. Chris Archer. Look at his face – dude’s 10 years old, man. (In truth, I knew going in as many of you did that Archer is no unknown and made a splash in 2013, though I wouldn’t have been able to tell you that he’d made 44 MLB starts, is 25, and had a career 3.38 ERA.) I don’t know whether Archer was that good or Tigers hitters were that bad, but since he was at about 30 pitches through 8 innings and made a great play on Jackson’s line drive, I’ll tip my cap. Were there any scoring chances of the runners on variety? (OK, yes – see yesterday’s postgame box link.) This is that rare game where I could rant and rave about a quicker hook for Sanchez and how the Tigers seemed to be phoning it in and how ashamed they should be. I feel kind of ashamed for having watched all of it. Well, no, not really. What I should feel ashamed of is holding out hope for that one big inning, I suppose. More fool me… Ian Krol threw 11 pitches with one strikeout in a scoreless inning for West Michigan on Friday… LHP Pat McCoy has looked pretty good so far, and even if he was up for a look and not much more, it’s unfortunate that he did something to his hamstring yesterday under those circumstances, 9th inning of a dismal game. McCoy was slow to the bag, sure, but couldn’t Miggy have at least tried to take that one himself?
POSTGAME OK, maybe it wasn’t such a terrible game. A lot of hard-hit balls off a true Cy, a lot of bad breaks, 3.1 innings of shutout ball from the pen, a HR each from Hunter and J.D. (his 7th this year in the 9th inning!), and a wee bit of drama along with the lightning, thunder, and rain at game’s end. When your starter gives up 7 runs, it’s pretty much out of reach, and Porcello’s scoreless streak came to a sad end.
SERIES WRAP: Taking 1 of 4 from the Rays at home was disappointing, to say the least. Call it a team effort. Now 48-37, the Tigers have a day to lick their wounds and regroup for the tall task ahead – Dodgers and Royals.
SERIES ALL-STAR TEAM
SP Scherzer
RP Boxberger
C Avila
1B Cabrera
2B Forsythe
SS Zobrist
3B Longoria
LF J. Martinez
CF Jennings
RF Hunter
DH V. Martinez
* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com and http://mlb.mlb.com and http://beck.mlblogs.com and http://www.milb.com
Game 2014.84: Rays 7, Tigers 2
Chris Archer vs. Anibal Sanchez today.
Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB
Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB
TODAY’S LINEUPS: Sorry, Ray. This is a Tigers blog. Victor is out, yup and (long-term) uh-oh. The Lettuce is in and AJax is back at leadoff, cue fan outrage. But Davis is in LF today and may distract us, positively speaking.
NOTABLE (PREGAME): Last night can be summed up in the phrase “not good enough.” Not terrible, except for Mr. Gilded Mexican Headwear at the plate, but not good enough. Smyly, apparently, either has it or doesn’t, no gutting it out or battling back for him. He didn’t have it, and was in one batter too long when Sean Rodriguez put the nail in the coffin. Not good enough. Alex Cobb bested the Tigers for 5, and when the base-loaded, no outs situation came to be, getting one run out of it was clearly not good enough. Lost in the shuffle was great defense from Kinsler to get one out on a run-scoring play and some nice defense at 3B by Kelly in the 9th… As we contemplate the deals Detroit (or the Olde English DD) might make before the trade deadline, one thing to remember is that any meaningful suggestion starts with giving up someone you’d rather not. Cabrera, Victor, Kinsler, Verlander, and Sanchez are all off the table, of course. Scherzer might not be off the table, but when you consider where the Tigers are (1st place) and a big reason why (Scherzer), well then, I guess Scherzer is off the table. What do the Tigers need so badly that they would give up the young talent of Porcello, Smyly, Castellanos, or Suarez to get? Or current hot ticket J.D.? (Nothing.) What’s left of the good to pretty good, and what of that is – more or less – surplus? Hunter? Davis? Surely not Alburquerque or Chamberlain? What’s to gain, what’s the need? Bullpen, you say. Well, they can probably get Joaquin Benoit at a reasonable price in trade, but is even that really worth it? Does Benoit put this team over the top? So why’d they let him go? Counting on Rondon? Anyway, some of us would love to unload Jackson or Avila, but the return would not be flashy or likely to solve anything immediately. Unlike last season, Detroit doesn’t have to make any deals at all. No Garcia situation, no Peralta situation. But Mr. Dombrowski may have something shrewd and more subtle up his sleeve just the same, planning for September/October even now… I guess it’s safe to say that J.D. Martinez is for real… Unfortunately, the recent aches and pains of the other Martinez are also for real. Victor (back soreness, right side) might be “back” for the Dodgers. Or he might not. Chronic isn’t what we want to hear, but it’s the word I’m starting to see in my crystal ball. Uh-oh.
POSTGAME Look away, it’s hideous.
* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com and http://mlb.mlb.com and http://beck.mlblogs.com
Game 2014.83: Rays 6, Tigers 3
Hurray for all the good citizens and inhabitants of this fine country, past and present. Hurray for all the champions and defenders of American liberty, now and ever. Hurray for freedom and civil society. Hurray for making the most of it and making it better. For everyone. Except for assorted criminals and saboteurs, such as the Tampa Bay Rays.
Alex Cobb vs. Drew Smyly tonight.
Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB
Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB
TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Where’s Nick? Oh, right. Watch out, Don. Could be going around.
NOTABLE (PREGAME): Last night, fine D in the 3rd from Castellanos and Suarez took two Tampa Bay hits off the board and helped Scherzer cruise the rest of the way. The only Tigers batter not to reach was Suarez. How good was that offense? Cabrera reached 4 times and scored 4 times, and yet was surpassed in statistical big game by both V. Martinez and Hunter. That’s how good. Chad Smith got that elusive third out in the 9th without intervening hits. There is so much to praise about Scherzer’s performance that I’ll settle for one thing: He pitched the last 7 innings like he didn’t have the lead. Still not a bad idea to lift him. Save that next CG for an adrenaline game… We all know why Cabrera’s doubles were way down last year, don’t we? They are back with a vengeance this season. Miggy is on pace for 90 XBH in 2014, which would eclipse anything previous from him – and that’s saying a lot.
POSTGAME Sombrero Man deserves some heat, but see play of the game. 16% is big. Boxberger 1, Hunter 0.
* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com and http://mlb.mlb.com and Betsy Ross and Coleman
Game 2014.82: Tigers 8, Rays 1
Erik Bedard vs. Max Scherzer tonight.
Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB
Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB
Team comparison: The Rays are stronger in the OF, at 3B, and in the bullpen, but are otherwise overmatched.
DETROIT HITTING RE24/WPA – PITCHING RE24/WPA
DETROIT RECENT HITTING – RECENT PITCHING
TAMPA BAY HITTING RE24/WPA – PITCHING RE24/WPA
TAMPA BAY RECENT HITTING – RECENT PITCHING
TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Victor is back.
NOTABLE (PREGAME): The Tigers just swept the best team in the AL to finish the first half on one of the season’s highest notes… The emergence of one and the decline of two have combined to yield a fluid situation in the outfield that may yet turn a weakness into a strength… Detroit is rumored to have trade interest in Joaquin Benoit. Given his contract, I find this hard to believe… Ian Krol has been cleared for rehab assignment and is expected to rejoin the team within a week or so.
