93-68, AL Central Division Champs. Woo-hoo. 

Seems like only yesterday it was a chilly Opening Day in Minneapolis with Verlander on the hill for Game 1 and Coleman on the game post mound…

Last night: Marlins 2, Tigers 1 (10). Four innings of shutout ball is a tall order for any bullpen. It almost happened, and Alburquerque was the best of the lot in the attempt. But alas, Benoit was flop sweat all the way, and Reed was just lost out there. But you know, Detroit had Cabrera… Fielder… Hunter… Peralta… Infante… Martinez for an AB. One run? ONE RUN?? Three runs in 19 innings? Against the Miami Marlins??? Are you kidding me? Anyway, Sanchez missed out on win #15 as a result, officially, and possibly win #20, unofficially.

What the Tigers have that is grrrrrrrrreat is starting pitching. Nothing else. Defense isn’t too bad, until you factor in the inability to prevent teams from stealing. The bullpen is not good. Not far from awful, if you want to know the truth. The hitting is overrated, and now you have a situation where Cabrera can’t hit doubles (nothing new – look at his season total) and doesn’t hit home runs. (Really good singles hitter, though.) They can’t steal, they can’t take the extra base; in brief, runners on amount to no special pressure on the opponent. They are perfectly set up to be feast or famine, which is exactly what they are. The good news is that none of this – or at least not much – was any different when they were winning 12 in a row. So there’s no use in any doomsday prognosis for the postseason. Things can turn on a dime.

Check out some pitching stats:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/JuJIm

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/kITpY

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/UQ1PE

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/qOedO

Catchers defense?

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/lqnxG

Team defense?

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/ZVRIp

Speaking of feast or famine, or really just of famine:

And now the sadder part:

All right. Could the Tigers maybe win #20, I mean #14, for Justin Verlander today? Please? Finish the (regular) season with a win, perchance? (Seeing how likely it seems that 2013 is gonna end with a loss eventually…)

Oh, right. It’s down to the wire in the Game Poster League. I need a win to tie. I think. Let’s see here…. No! I’ve lost! Coleman has clinched it. Congratulations, Coleman.

Coleman 31-21
Smoking Loon 32-24
Kevin in Dallas 30-23

… and 93 or 94 wins sounded pretty reasonable. Certainly nothing to complain about. 

93-67, AL Central champs. No chance at #2 seed in AL playoffs, possibility of facing Boston rather than Oakland in the ALDS. Pick your poison, Tigers are decided underdogs either way, but Detroit is 8-20 against the Red Sox at Fenway under Jim Leyland. That’s right.

Last night: Miami 3, Detroit 2. OK, it was a loss. It’s not that they didn’t try or that too many “scrubs” were playing or any of that nonsense. They just lost. Big hit by big man Giancarlo Stanton (Marlins aren’t quite as no-name as I thought – obviously I haven’t paid them much attention) and quiet Tigers bats = a loss a lot like at least 20 others this season. So what’s the big deal?

Well, home-field advantage in the ALDS is out the window. No small matter. I got a weird vibe from this game. I knew there’d be a bit of “spring training” to this series with odd lineups, true, but I didn’t expect the games to feel that way, not with something on the line. I’m not much for the Alvarez semi-start, not much for the formality start from Fielder, not much for how Peralta played the Stanton double. I have my doubts about the concept of getting Porcello “ready” for the bullpen the way it was done, like this game was for practice purposes (which it evidently was, that from the horse’s mouth). After a day off prior, and with four off-days coming up, the idea of needing to get guys off their feet at any time during this series is laughable. The one guy who could have stood to have the day off was playing; Iglesias, the batless wonder, he of bruises and shin splints. While his bat-equipped replacement stood in LF in the name of experiment. Wonderful. I’m left a bit sour on the whole thing.

Gates Brown dies at 74. Larger than life role player that Tigers fans have never forgotten.

Rondon, Coke, Cabrera for the Marlins series.

Peralta in LF. Sounded good in theory. Nice additional option. Not so pleased with it now. It may prove costly and might look quite stupid when we’re dissecting the postseason later.

The postseason rotation is still up in the air, but I would say that Scherzer/Sanchez/ Verlander/Fister is the best bet going in. How that might eventually shake out depending on how far each series goes is wide open. If the Tigers needed Scherzer twice to get through the ALDS, it’s obvious that he wouldn’t be starting Game 1 of the ALCS. So maybe that’s a reason to start Sanchez or Verlander in Game 1 of the ALDS? You tell me, and then we’ll tell Leyland. Or not.

I wonder how Prince Fielder feels about that “start” last night. He’s “over stats,” and stats would include streaks. I’m guessing it wasn’t his idea and that he didn’t like the draw a walk and leave one bit.

I’ll try to get back with some stats here, in order to set an example for the Detroit Tigers. No reason not to make a serious effort, no matter how “meaningless” or “experimental” a series may be. I want 95 wins. Don’t you?

It’s clear from this and the rest that Miguel Cabrera is on his own planet, as if we didn’t know. Which makes his ordinariness of late more of a postseason concern. (Face it, we’re doomed.) (Oh, maybe not.) Offensively, no one else on the team deserves to be mentioned in the same breath. Or paragraph.

Avila’s resurgence is real (I had my doubts). So is the massive K rate.

My failure to notice the missing decimal place on Iglesias irks me. Oh well.

WPA is Win Percentage Added. It’s big, as in “how does my offense affect game outcomes?” Sometimes it seems as though Hunter is always there to deliver the big hit (especially right after he does). Think again. Think Peralta. Jackson? Forget about it. Pardon me for thinking you a bit overrated, Mr. Omar Infante.

RE24 is perhaps best thought of as “overall quality of at bats (actually plate appearances).” Here Tui fails to redeem himself. The coachman has indeed turned back into a mouse. It should be clear from all the above, however, that Mister Offensive Bust of 2013 has been none other than Dirks. (Pretty darn good in LF, though.) Notice how excellent numbers for Hunter have gone south (uptick in strikeouts and GIDP – what happened to “table setter”?). It matches observation to say that the more trustworthy quality ABs currently reside in the Men In Black in the right column (notice red on the rise). Santiago has raised his average, yes… but seriously.

Let’s hope the Tigers rise to the occasion tonight with brilliant formatting from Sanchez, and that the bats are hitting Command-B and playing with Excel rather than the crappy spreadsheet program I’m using.

93-66, 2013 AL Central Division Champions. No small sigh of relief there.

Wednesday, the Tigers clinched with a gutsy 1-0 win over the Twins. Couldn’t watch (I was sick, still am), but I’ll catch up with it after the postseason, no doubt. Must have been the nail-biter of the season.

They really had us going there, didn’t they? I can’t be the only one who had “collapse” in the back of my mind after Monday’s loss to Minnesota. A team that can come back to win from 6-0, bottom of the 9th should be capable of anything, but “anything” didn’t include giving away the next game, at least as I saw it. Now things are back on track and Tigers are in the postseason – through the front door. Not only that, but there’s also a real chance they can wrest home-field advantage for the ALDS from the A’s.

There have been grumblings (including mine) about how far the Tigers are likely to go in the postseason. This team doesn’t just have an “Achille’s heel.” It has at least 4 or 5 glaring weaknesses that I can think of offhand. However, they’ve been able to overcome them more than once for significant stretches of the season; how else would they be 93-66 right now? I think I’ll enjoy, for now, the fact that Detroit is ALDS-bound,  and save the major postseason worrying for when the postseason has actually begun. Don’t let that stop you from voicing your worry, though. I would worry if you did.

Three in NL Miami are up next to close out the regular season, day game on Sunday for the finale. I don’t think I’ll look up the forecast for this series. The options for Miami are either “nice” or “hurricane.” Haven’t heard anything about a hurricane, but I’d be the last to know. The 59-100 Marlins are a no-name, rebuilding team reputed to have loads of future potential, so let’s hope that potential stays at least a week in the future. The Tigers definitely have something to play for here. Will they? Messrs. Porcello, Sanchez, and Verlander would certainly appreciate it, as would we. Be advised that the Marlins have a better home record than the Twins and the Mets do. (But not by much.)

93-66, 27 games over .500. 14 wins are the difference between ho-hum and on top. Every win counts the same as any other in the standings, but it goes beyond subjectivity to suggest that some wins were more important and/or impressive than others. Specifying which is where it gets more subjective. I’ll give you my take on “The Big 14” in a bit, but first I’ll let the early-bird commenters think on it and make their own suggestions (and get an early start on all the other stuff there is to talk about – there’s plenty, no?).

OK, I tried hard, but could only narrow it down as far as “The Big 19.” Tell me which five don’t belong:

April 17: Tigers 2, MARINERS 1 (14)

A Hunter throw, a Fielder relay, a Pena tag and hold through collision, and a hard-earned victory is preserved.

April 26: TIGERS 10, Braves 0

A thumping of a good team that wasn’t swinging like one at the time (tough luck). Sanchez! Quite the morale boost at the time.

May 2:  Tigers 7, ASTROS 3 (14)

Laugh about the Astros now, but the first two games weren’t easy. Imagine a team that comes through in the clutch like this more often.

May 17: Tigers 2, RANGERS 1

A ray of hope in a dismal series. Porcello.

May 23: TIGERS 7, Twins 6

Impressive come from behind from a team not known for it.

June 1: Tigers 10, ORIOLES 3

On a 4-game skid, on the heels of the Valverde implosion, Tigers put the hammer down on a team they find hard to beat.

June 23: TIGERS 7, Red Sox 5

They stole this one, and considering what lurked around the corner, larceny was just what the doctor ordered.

July 8: Tigers 4, INDIANS 2 (10)

Only up on CLE by 2.5 going in, winner of 3/4 going out, a classic winner’s win. “We’re comin’ to get ya. See? Told ya.”

July 14: TIGERS 5, Rangers 0

Strong shutdown of an intimidating opponent. Verlander. Bastille Day. (Extra points if your next thought was “Caress Of Steel.”)

July 31: TIGERS 11, Nationals 1.

A torching of one of the better lefties in the game.

August 4: TIGERS 3, White Sox 2 (12)

Bouncing back from a blown save and keeping a monumental streak rolling.

August 5: Tigers 4, INDIANS 2

The traditional August 5 Chris Perez Beatdown.

August 17: TIGERS 6, Royals 5

Miggy Moment of the season… so far.

August 29:  TIGERS 7, A’s 6

Did one swing of Torii Hunter’s bat save the season? Maybe it did.

September 2: Tigers 3, RED SOX 0

Preserving a shred of dignity against the mighty BoSox. Fister.

September 6: Tigers 16, ROYALS 2

10 earned runs off of (or on) James Shields. Need I say more?

September 19: TIGERS 5, Mariners 4

Stepping up in the late innings to pick up your starter. Imagine that.

September 21: TIGERS 7, White Sox 6 (12)

The miracle game.

September 25: Tigers 1, TWINS 0

The clincher. Scherzer. What was that about one-run games?

9 of these were road games. Hint. Also, if you look into them (as opposed to looking into every game of the season, as I feel like I’ve done about 10 times over by now), you might start to bristle a bit at the term “Sunday lineup,” as I do. Lotta contributors here.

Go contributors! All of ya!

88-64, 1st place. The Indians lost. Or maybe they won. Whatever. (I’m pretty sure they lost. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the magic number is down to 5.)

Last night: Seattle 8, Detroit 0. The Tigers got in some early World Series practice. #5 starter Justin Verlander carried a no-hitter into the second inning. Was Iwakuma that good, or were the Tigers that bad? Two bases-loaded situations early came to naught. The bullpen came on to save us from a dull, ordinary shutout loss. And how about that Phil Cuzzi strike zone, eh?

Cabrera: The best hitter on the planet wasn’t.
Fielder: Got the Tigers on the just foul board with a just foul HR.
Martinez: IF single! Honest. Stole a base! OK, it was a wild pitch.
Tuiasosopo: Struck out with the bases loaded. Extenuating circumstances, but still. Busy in LF. Has a Scrappy Guy thing going, apparently.
Perez: Good energy. Seriously.
Other Guys: There, somewhere, if the box score is to be believed.
Verlander: Don’t be surprised if the crafty veteran edges out Smyly for a spot in the rotation next year.
Coke: DFA.
Alburquerque: Clown Showque. Not often you can give the pitcher alone both a wild pitch and a passed ball on one play that scores 2 runs with 0 for 97 Henry “Tattoos Age Poorly” Blanco at the plate. Too early for the WS, but a classic nonetheless.
Putkonen: Go ahead, add insult to injury. Why not.

AlburCokey lives again!

Now the time is here
AlburCokey will spread fear
Vengeance from the grave
Kill the Tigers they once saved

But I’m not bitter.

Still time for Detroit to take this series the way they should. Day game, Doug Fister on the slab. Eventually, given enough games and at bats, the Tigers could – in theory – hit a Mariners starter. I propose a series extension. I’m sure the White Sox would prefer a trip to sunny L.A.. As well they should.

88-63. Tigers match their 2012 win total with 11 left to play. Oh, and 1st place. To stay. Cleveland is 6 out even after winning. 11/6 = ? Count ’em down. It’s Magic Number time.

Last night: Tigers 6, Mariners 2. It was a nail-biter until the bottom of the 8th; I thought the Tigers were going to give this one away. Kind of a long game, wasn’t it?

Jackson: Stole a base! Late 2-run single allowed us to breathe.
Hunter: Sacrifice line drive. Game-winner. We’ll take it.
Cabrera: First HR in 22 days. Coupla fine plays at 3B.
Fielder: Struck out twice while leaving 5 on. Turned a double into an out with his glove.
Martinez: Started the 8th inning rally – wisely pinch-run for.
Kelly: Golfed a HR, big 8th inning single pushing Perez to 3B.
Infante: Big insurance run RBI. Not real fond of all the getting to the ball and failing to glove it going on lately.
Avila: Huge leadoff TRIPLE to set up game-winner, turned rundown between 3B and home into a plus.
Iglesias: Busy man. Good bunt. Bad error. Scored game-winning run tagging from 3B on a line drive to CF. Made the DP that ended the final Mariners threat.
Dirks: Ugly strikeout.
Perez: Handy as a pinch runner.
Santiago: Wore something on one of his forearms.
Sanchez: Made the Mariners look silly, pitched a little too long and the win slipped away.
Alburquerque: Saved Sanchez’s bacon. Nice.
Coke: Rescued by Fielder, let down by Iglesias, on thin ice as usual. Postseason roster? Not so sure about that.
Alvarez: Saved the 8th under heavy pressure. Too many pitches, wise to pull him after the 2-out walk in the 9th.
Veras: Get it done already. Thank you.

I noticed the following ridiculous headline: “Suspended infielder Jhonny Peralta could solve Detroit Tigers’ glaring weakness in left field.” There is no glaring weakness. There are three competent players. You can find fault with each, but put their number togethers and you have a slightly above average outfielder. Add ’em up. Peralta in LF is all about a practical slot for a potentially hot and hungry bat in the postseason. Nothing to do with any “glaring weakness.”

Hisashi Iwakuma takes the hill for the Mariners tonight. He’s very good. Considering how difficult it’s been for the Tigers hitters to get it going against Seattle starters already, I might just watch the top halves of innings this game. It’s another boring weekday night game against a non-contender that you probably won’t want to watch. Too bad, because you’ll miss Verlander’s no-hitter, and I won’t even tell you about it later.

87-63, x games up on whoever. (Actually 6 games up on Cleveland…. with 12 left to play.) Can the Tigers make it to the elusive 25 over mark? Might they actually be able to sneak into home field advantage for the ALCS or ALDS, by and by? Stay tuned.

Last night: Detroit 4, Seattle 2. It took 3 innings before Porcello found his A-game, and nearly 3 more before the Tigers really got to Joe Saunders (Joe Saunders!), but in the end, nearly everyone chipped in a bit, with Martinez, Hunter, and Infante deserving special mention. Porcello got his win (#13, plus 10 strikeouts), Benoit got his save (#20). Smyly pitched nearly 2 innings, like he should, and gave up a run, like he shouldn’t. I like you at 1B, Prince, but throwing the ball at Porcello’s shoulder is an error. No glove there, though it’s an idea.

A recent quote from Prince Fielder, courtesy of mlb.com:

“I’m over stats,” Fielder said. “I’m into playing hard, and if I’m healthy, that’s my main stat. I’m out there playing every day and I think that’s all you can ask for.”

I like that. There’s the world of exaggerated fan talk, and then there’s the world of playing baseball for a living. Win or lose, the Detroit Tigers put on a good show. I’m satisfied, even as the fan in me will never run out of things to analyze and criticize and second-guess.

That being said, let’s get back to stats. Or not. It’s late, I’m tired. Maybe tomorrow.

News and notes on Rondon, Bonderman, Worth.

Anibal is on the mound and Miggy’s bat is full of unspent home runs. Could the Tigers be doomed to yet another victory? I’m thinking… yes. And I guess they won’t have to face Felix Hernandez this series after all. That practically reduces the magic number by one all by itself.

86-63, 5 up on Cleveland, KC effectively eliminated. 6-7 September record; more of the same gets Detroit to 92-70… and the ALDS in Oakland.

Big win yesterday against the Royals, big loss the day before, biggest series of the season on many levels. Gut check: Pass. (Also down to the wire now in the Game Poster League. Good job, Kevin. I guess I’m the only one left who can’t handle the pitching staff.)

The Seattle Mariners come to Cabrerica for a four-game series, day game on Thursday. Rain is a threat in the Detroit area forecast for the last couple, particularly Thursday. The forecast also calls for a 95% chance of Iwakuma and King Felix the last two games, with hail as large as baseballs, or possibly pitched baseballs the size of small hail, depending on how you look at it, threatening to come down upon the Tigers offense.

Unaided memory of the April series in Seattle calls back: Hunter to Fielder to Pena and a violent collision at home plate with Justin Smoak where Pena hangs on to preserve a 2-1, 14-inning win. The Series of the Strikeout (both teams). Prince Fielder striking out 5 times in one game. Iwakuma throttling the Tigers. The first glimmer of the first minor offensive funk of the season.

April 16: Tigers 6 MARINERS 2 WRAP
April 17: Tigers 2, MARINERS 1 (14) WRAP
April 18: MARINERS 2, Tigers 0 WRAP

The Mariners can hit a home run, but are otherwise one of the worst offensive teams in the AL. No threat on the bases, bullpen and defense nothing to write home about, either. Their starting pitching would seem to be their saving grace, but that’s really all about Hernandez and Iwakuma, not enough to save them from 66-83. They do, however, have something “left” to play for, and that is winning. Just like every other team the Tigers will face from here on out. Let’s try not to forget that.

Miguel Cabrera, who didn’t appear especially unhealthy at last check, might be on his way from Triple Crown to No Crown. Monster consistency over 5 months just leaves us wanting a sixth (and seventh) month, doesn’t it? “What have you done for me lately?” is a constant in baseball. But he does seem to be coming around lately. Staving off Trout for his 3rd consecutive batting title certainly wouldn’t hurt the team’s chances.

Now, about that playoff rotation question posed recently by Kevin, as we jump to all kinds of fairly reasonable conclusions. My take – which assumes that the Tigers are not going to face an AL wild card at any point and that the A’s aren’t gonna catch the Red Sox – is below:

Interesting questions:

1. Must Porcello be excluded from playoff starts? Isn’t there a way to work him in? Might the Tigers actually go 5-man – and would you? How? (I considered it, though not carefully.)

2. Verlander is due to start Game 162 as things currenty stand. Is there a reason to juggle this for a playoff reset? (I don’t think so.)

3. Is the honor of a Game 1 start a factor in your mind? Does that surpass being entrusted with an eventual Game 7?

Two of my choices might stick out. Fister in ALDS Game 2 at Oakland? (Good career numbers there.) Verlander my 3-7 go-to guy in the ALCS and WS? (Yep.) Even my Game 5 go-to guy in the ALDS? (You remember 2012, don’t you?)

All right. If the Tigers can take care of their own business against Seattle, the scoreboard watching can soon end. And wouldn’t that be nice? Wake up, Andy Dirks (CAPOPS*). Get a big hit one of these games, maybe even have a big series. You’re turning into a ham sandwich. Unacceptable.

*Called Out Player Of The Pre-Series.

82-60, first place, 5.5 games ahead of the Indians (violation of agreement, currently under review).

We need a replacement for the “good game” cliche. Let’s go with well-played loss. Losing 4-3 gives the Royals the series edge at 8-7 and drops Detroit’s record to 15-21 in one-run games.

Duffy didn’t throw enough strikes for the Tigers to hit, and apparently their bats rusted quickly (5 hits overall on the night). When you insist on allowing Royals to reach, you can expect some stress from KC’s smartball attack, which might result in either a gutsy win or a gutsy loss. One oops that Salvador Perez put into the left field stands made it a gutsy loss for Verlander, who didn’t pitch badly at all. Big fail for the Tigers was Torii “No Plate Discipline” Hunter, who crapped out on two big runners-on opportunities, to bookend Fielder’s popout with the bases loaded against Wade Davis. Verlander and the pen kept it close. Put this one down on the hitters, yesterday’s heroes.

In the bottom of the first, Brayan Pena overthrew the throw back to the mound. Fortunately, Ramon Santiago was backing up the play. I was as confused as everyone on the field when baserunner Emilio Bonifacio, who had been on first base, walked back to the KC dugout after sliding into second. Apparently the play was ruled a “caught stealing.” I’ll have to look that one up. Oh, there it is, under “Perez, Salvador.” Really – great job, Brayan.

Speaking of great jobs, the gem was Fielder to Pena to nail Lough at the plate. Perfection. That calls to mind a play from Friday that didn’t get enough recognition, another play at the plate involving another good stop from Fielder but a high throw that a leaping Avila turned into an out. A play like that makes up for a bowl of strikeouts. A small bowl. Which wouldn’t include the terrible swing at ball four from Holland in last night’s game. Very bad at a very bad time, and this from a guy who knows the strike zone. But back to defense last night: Fielder was sharp (everyone was) on a 3-6-1 beauty, and Santiago turned a flashy play at SS worthy of Iglesias, albeit with less fanfare.

Nick Castellanos’s “first MLB hit” will be overturned as an error on 1B Eric Hosmer.

Looking over my stats on the starters from yesterday yielded a few interesting things, in combination with things I already know:

1. There’s a kind of “Pythagorean record” for pitchers you can derive from it.

SANCHEZ should be 14-9, is 13-7

VERLANDER should be 14-12, is 12-10 (not including last night)

FISTER should be 13-9, is 12-7

SCHERZER should be 21-4, is 19-2

PORCELLO should be 15-9, is 11-8

“Should be” is a rather simple take on leaving with a lead or a deficit. But everything is pretty close to actual… except for Porcello. I think I’ve been too hard on Rick. The bullpen has allowed more of his runners to score, I suspect, and both bats and bullpen have let him down at an above-average rate. I hereby declare Porcello to be Best Fifth Starter In The AL Or Portions Thereof.

2. Fister is the king of both lack of run support and squandering what support he gets.

3. The Tigers bullpen sure does give up a lot of runs, and most of them are their own. They were also 14-21 last time I checked, which speaks for itself.

4. The Tigers starters sure don’t leave the game down in the score very often, and give the hitters some credit there.

Which reminds me to present the threatened list:

New York Yankees 7, Detroit 0
Oakland 4, Detroit 3 (12)
Seattle 2, Detroit 0
Los Angeles Angels 8, Detroit 1
Los Angeles Angels 10, Detroit 0
Los Angeles Angels 4, Detroit 3 (13)
Kansas City 8, Detroit 3 (10)
Washington 3. Detroit 1
Cleveland 4, Detroit 3 (10)
Pittsburgh 1, Detroit 0 (11)
Pittsburgh 1, Detroit 0 (11)
Tampa Bay 3, Detroit 0
Kansas City 3, Detroit 2 (10)
Los Angeles Angels 3, Detroit 1 (10)
Tampa Bay 4, Detroit 3 (10)
Tampa Bay 3, Detroit 1
Texas 7, Detroit 1
Kansas City 1, Detroit 0
New York Yankees 4, Detroit 3 (10)
Chicago White Sox 4, Detroit 3 (11)
Kansas City 2, Detroit 1
Kansas City 3, Detroit 0
Cleveland 4, Detroit 0
Boston 2, Detroit 1

Ouch. Look how many times Kansas City is on it.

I don’t have numbers to prove it, but I believe that defense has actually become a strength of the Detroit Tigers, Don’t tell them I said that.

Tuiasosopo’s strikeout rate is beginning to reach the Red Zone, or should we say Avila Zone. Martinez and Infante are outstanding on an outstanding team at avoiding the strikeout.

6 Tigers regulars are above-average in line drive %. Tops is Jackson at 29%. Cabrera, Dirks (very good news), Fielder, Martinez, and Infante are also there. Kelly is even closer to the bottom than he used to be at 18%.

22% of all baserunners present score when Cabrera is at the plate. Tuiasosopo is next at 18%. Well below league average at 10% and less are Santiago, Dirks, and Iglesias.

The unchallenged king of the GIDP is Martinez – 19% of opps. Meanwhile, all the Tigers left fielders are excellent at avoiding it.

Scoring after reaching base is partly a function of who bats behind you, but Jackson’s 48% is still outstanding. Pena looks like he can really chugalug for a catcher, but the numbers tell a different story. 19%.

Only Cabrera, Tuiasosopo, and Fielder hit home runs at above league-average rate. Cabrera is, in fact, the only truly outstanding power supply on the team, giving the lie to the idea of Detroit as a team of bashers. Solid in the gap power/doubles department, though – too bad some of them are hard-pressed to leg out a double.

It’s hard to accumulate a lot of net positive or negative WPA over the course of a season. Cabrera’s 6.5 is astounding. In terms of consistent game-changing hitting, added all up, there’s been Cabrera, Fielder, and Peralta, and essentially no one else (lots of Tigers on the plus side, however). Dirks -2.2 is equally astounding. Boesched? Oh yeah.

Who are the best hitters, at bat by at bat? RE24 might not tell the WHOLE story, but it doesn’t lie. Here’s best to worst (for the season, mind you – the numbers pile up and obscure more recent trends we are well aware of):

Cabrera (off the chart)
Fielder
Peralta
Tuiasosopo
Infante
Hunter
Jackson
Martinez
Kelly
Iglesias (w/Tigers only)
Santiago
Pena
Avila
Dirks

And if all this doesn’t get you fired up for baseball, I give up, and I’ll just step aside and let Doug Fister and Papa G (POPG) Miguel Cabrera (oh man, is he due or what?) take over.

82-59, first place. Magic number 16, should you hanker for one this early. Detroit and Cleveland seem to have reached an accord about staying 6.5 games away from each other. If the Tigers go undefeated the rest of the way, this is a win-win.

Was I saying something about a close game being a good game? Oh, baloney. 16-2 Tigers – any team, any time – now that is a good game. 16 runs without a home run (close call on the Infante 3-run double, though). It’s not as though the Tigers bombed Big Game James or any of the Royals pitchers. They just wouldn’t stop hitting. And the Tigers RISP figure was none shy of obscene, at least if you’re a Royals fan. There have been other games where 26 hits (and 5 walks) might have gone for 5 runs or so, or so you’d have been thinking. Omar Infante, Andy Dirks, and Austin Jackson were the headliners and about half of the offense, but 11 Tigers collected hits and 10 scored runs. The greedy Tigers fan might feel a bit cheated of more by Shields’s clever pickoff of Dirks at 3B with bases loaded and none out, where a big inning unraveled into a zero. But Dirks didn’t hang his head after that, and good for him. Oh, and Anibal Sanchez pitched 7 good innings of 1-run baseball. Luke Putkonen could be the Anti-AlburCokey, at least as a 14-run lead specialist.

Last night’s game wasn’t a laugher the way some laughers are laughers. The Royals didn’t look sorry in lopsided defeat (as the Tigers really hadn’t, either, in their blowout loss to Boston, except for a few of the pitchers). There were quite a few notable defensive plays. KC’s David Lough turned some nice ones in both RF and LF. But the Tigers had the edge here, too. Avila, Fielder, Tuiasosopo, Infante, and Sanchez all put in some nice work. There was that sailing throw by Avila, true. And Danny Worth at 3B managed to make Miguel Cabrera look spry (not to mention his PA). It’s unfair to make a broad judgment based on one game, so allow me to be unfair and say that Worth looks just about done as a ballplayer. I still think that Worth and Quintin Berry should have made the team out of ST. I don’t know if the team would be better now, but it would have been more interesting.

Detroit’s Pythagorean record is back up to +5, and I’m fine with it. Let us savor the blowouts:

Detroit 11, Toronto 1
Detroit 10, Oakland 1
Detroit 10, Atlanta 0
Detroit 17, Houston 2
Detroit 9, Houston 0
Detroit 10, Tampa Bay 1
Detroit 11, Toronto 1
Detroit 10, Philadelphia 0
Detroit 12, Philadelphia 4
Detroit 11, Washington 1
Detroit 11, New York Mets 3
Detroit 16, Kansas City 2

This, and a glance up and down the Tigers OPS+ column, kinda makes you wonder: What are we complaining about? A list of the shutout and near-shutout losses and extra-innings losses could answer that, I suppose.

Nick Castellanos gets his first start in LF tonight, and it is rumored that Torii Hunter is getting a blow (this is a perfectly innocent old expression for “time off,” and in my continuing efforts to emulate Rod Allen, I am trying to overcome my aversion to it). Justin Verlander gets his rematch with Danny Duffy, and I don’t see Duffy getting the better of it this time, not if JV can help it. Also, 1 hit in 6 innings? I don’t think so. Not this time. Now, Danny Salazar of the Indians was very good against Detroit twice. Will Danny Duffy be? I didn’t see that last game. Maybe the Tigers have a problem with the name “Danny.” That would also explain Danny Worth and also Danry Vasquez, whom the Tigers may have traded by mistake thinking his name was “Danny.”

More amazing stats of no particular consequence to follow…

I find various run support measures vague, unsatisfactory, and possibly misleading. Consequently:

ANIBAL SANCHEZ
AVG SCORE WHEN REPLACED: Tigers 4.8, Opponent 2.0
LEFT WITH LEAD: 14/25 = 56%
LEFT TIED: 2/25 = 8%
LEFT BEHIND: 9/25 = 36%

JUSTIN VERLANDER
AVG SCORE WHEN REPLACED: Tigers 4.1, Opponent 2.8
LEFT WITH LEAD: 14/29 = 48%
LEFT TIED: 3/29 = 11%
LEFT BEHIND: 12/29 = 41%

DOUG FISTER
AVG SCORE WHEN REPLACED: Tigers 3.5, Opponent 2.8
LEFT WITH LEAD: 13/28 = 46%
LEFT TIED: 6/28 = 22%
LEFT BEHIND: 9/28 = 32%

MAX SCHERZER
AVG SCORE WHEN REPLACED: Tigers 5.3, Opponent 2.3
LEFT WITH LEAD: 21/28 = 75%
LEFT TIED: 3/28 = 11%
LEFT BEHIND: 4/28 = 14%

RICK PORCELLO
AVG SCORE WHEN REPLACED: Tigers 3.7, Opponent 2.7
LEFT WITH LEAD: 15/26 = 58%
LEFT TIED: 2/26 = 7%
LEFT BEHIND: 9/26 = 35%

From my gleaning of the pitching game logs, it stood out how easily Scherzer could be 25-3 right now.

I think it’s been clear for a while that Miguel Cabrera is not going to catch Chris Davis in HR and gain the Triple Crown. I can’t get excited about any MVP debate, either. Cabrera is having a Triple Crown season nonetheless, and I’d just like to see him put together a quality stretch run and help the team put the division race to bed in no more than 10 games or so. I’m very content to let Davis take his 55 HR and Mike Trout his (eventual, possible) MVP, take them home with them, sit down, and watch the Tigers in the playoffs and the World Series.

Speaking of World Series, it’s nice to see the San Francisco Giants in the cellar and on the brink of elimination. Not a big deal, just nice. Kung Fu Panda, Sergio Romo and his saves… so yesterday.

81-59, first place, 6.5 games ahead of the Indians. Too early to start talking about magic numbers. When GAMES REMAINING/GAMES AHEAD = <2, magic number time begins.

After a couple days off, one of which counted in the standings, the Tigers are back at it with three against the Royals in KC. (By the way, the weekend forecast for KC MO is scorching heat. The good news is that only Sunday is a day game. Fister might pitch well in heat, I don’t know, but I fear for his longevity.) If you’ve followed the Detroit Tigers much this season, you already know the book on Tigers-Royals:

1. Neither team hits much against the other.
2. The Royals are going to steal bases at will.
3. With a little more help from the hitters, the starters could have carried the Tigers to a good 12 wins over KC. 15-4 against the Indians, and – what in the world??
4. The games will be contested and close; these two squads have been playing playoff baseball against each other all season.

The season series stands at 6-7. 43 RS, 43 RA – how ’bout them apples? A review of the last 5, which played like an ALDS:

TIGERS 4 Royals 1 WRAP
Royals 2 TIGERS 1 WRAP
Royals 3 TIGERS 0 WRAP
TIGERS 6 Royals 5 WRAP
TIGERS 6 Royals 3 WRAP

The Royals aren’t out of it. A sweep and they are way in it. Watch out, Tigers. Get your runs early and keep your starters out there for 7. Liable to be trouble otherwise.

Say what you will about the 20-4 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, but it’s not an indictment of the whole team. OK, so it’s a mistake to push Porcello when he’s fading. OK, so Alburquerque makes one of those pitches that the batter doesn’t miss a bit of, and now the Tigers won’t get back into this one. So it’s a 10-4 loss, more or less, after half of a tight game. What transpired thereafter, however, is an indictment of some of the more marginal bullpen pieces (shards? crumbs?), Alburquerque included, and also of Jim Leyland. Regardless of the score, I don’t think it’s ever a “waste of a pitcher” to make a serious effort to record outs. I don’t understand leaving someone out there to be hammered, batter after batter. I don’t agree that it would have been ridiculous to bring in Smyly, Veras, Rondon, or even Benoit. Whatever it took. If “getting it over with” was the idea,  getting some outs would have been a good way to go about it. Put the 14 runs allowed over 3 innings on Leyland’s ERA.

Tigers have given up 13 or more runs 3 times on Wednesdays this season. Which hasn’t otherwise been an unusual day of the week for the Tigers.

Seems as though Iglesias will be back in the lineup, the shin splints not being the news they appeared to be. Still a concern, though. There didn’t appear to be a cloud in the Iglesias sky up until now. Visions of 10-15 years of seriously deranged shortstopitude. Miggy? Well, we just don’t seem to know any more, do we? Day to day.

Just as I’d gotten to thinking that maybe Fister was the odd man out rather than Porcello, and even had thoughts of a 6-man rotation in 2014 (dream on – innovation from Leyland? Ha!), I’m disillusioned again. And then it hit me – Porcello belongs in the bullpen!* I really think so. Ah, but he’ll probably insist on a starting role, and he’ll probably be doing that elsewhere in 2014. Too bad, because I think Porcello would excel in the bullpen. He might yet, somewhere, someday. I think he’s reached his ceiling as a starter, however. Usually gassed after 5. Not real promising for a starter. A 24 year old starter.

*Not claiming it’s an original idea.

So where does everyone stand on Jhonny Peralta? Bring him back for the anticipated post-season? I don’t see why not, myself. What’s not to like about that bat on the bench?

More to come on that constant thorn in our side, the Tigers bullpen, but feel free to get started…

TIGERS BULLPEN GIVEN ANY LEAD: 0.92 RPG, 68-8 team W-L 

TIGERS BULLPEN GIVEN A TIE: 1.56 RPG, 6-10 team W-L

TIGERS BULLPEN GIVEN ANY DEFICIT: 2.20 RPG, 6-40 team W-L

5+ RUN LEAD: 0.58 RPG, 29-0

4 RUN LEAD: 1.00 RPG, 14-1

3 RUN LEAD: 0.92 RPG, 12-0

2 RUN LEAD: 1.38 RPG, 5-3

1 RUN LEAD: 1.33 RPG, 8-4

TIE GAME: 1.56 RPG, 6-10

1 RUN BEHIND: 1.46 RPG, 3-10

2 RUNS BEHIND: 2.20 RPG, 2-13

3 RUNS BEHIND: 3.63 RPG, 0-8

4 RUNS BEHIND: 0.25 RPG, 0-4

5+ RUNS BEHIND: 3.17 RPG, 1-5

Ah, numbers. What to make of it all?

The Tigers bullpen has fared pretty well against the Royals. This would be a good time for them and the pitching staff in general to rise to the occasion after a pretty shaky week or so. Anibal’s last loss came against the Royals, and it was a hard-luck affair for him. Maybe the bats can get him some runs this time. Hitting has been none too perky just lately in terms of converting hits into runs. Go Tigers.

77-56, 1st place, 5.5 games ahead of the Indians.

So this is what it’s like to be an Astros fan. Oh, right. The above. Strike that remark. But losing 14-4 will correct your Pythagorean record in a hurry.

The pitching has gotten a bit soggy lately, eh? The A’s are also swinging the bats very, very well. The Tigers have run into them at the wrong time. Seems to happen with some frequency vs. the AL West. And I’ve got a Mariners series coming up. Eek.

No sweeping conclusions based on three games, now. The team that wins 12 in a row can lose 3 in a row. Even at Cabrerica. It’s the same team.

The good: Hunter and Martinez were impressive. Jose Iglesias is just something else at SS.

The bad: Well, there’s the pitching. And also the pitching. How ’bout the pitching? Did I mention that already?

The at bats by Cabrera and Fielder in the 5th were disgraceful, beneath contempt. I like to think that the reason these two took a seat early is less because of the score and more because Jim Leyland saw what I saw better than I did. Cabrera gets moody and gives away at bats. It happens. I’m more surprised by Fielder. The funny thing about it is this: I was still stewing about those at bats when the 7th inning started (and I was watching the game without audio on purpose, so I had no warning), thinking about how I would have sat those two bums immediately and replaced them with Kelly at 3B and Tuiasosopo at 1B, when who should appear on my screen but… Aha! Sweet justice, I thought.

Coco Crisp isn’t the first opposing CF we’ve seen this season who makes Austin Jackson look ordinary, but I don’t think I’ve seen Jackson have a game like this in center field before. Misplayed an out into a single… an out into a double… and lazied a single into a double. On top of an 0 for 5. Huh. Onward, don’t look back.

Doug Fister gives up a lot of hits. Have you noticed that?

Bartolo Colon is indeed back from the DL to plague the Tigers. Although Colon can be a brute (get it?), I fully expect Max Scherzer and 20-1 euphoria to push this three-game funk out of our minds and send us up against Cleveland full of renewed optimism. This is, after all, the same team that won 12 in a row. Except for Coke. Could that be the problem? Maybe clubhouse chemistry is in a shambles without kooky Phil to stir things up. Oh well. He’ll be back soon.

77-55, first place, 5.5 up on the Cleveland Indians.

Rain put a merciful end to the debacle of the 6-3 loss to the A’s. It was a forgettable game, but I remember a few things:

A. Prince Fielder’s 2-run, bases-loaded single to tie the game wasn’t just a 2-run, bases-loaded single to tie the game. It was also a fine display of “old style” Prince at the dish, the whole at bat.

B. Justin Verlander did record 15 outs. It just took him a while.

C. Iglesias cost the Tigers an A’s run with a poor relay throw. Little disappointed there.

D. Moss’s 2-run backbreaker was brought to you in part by Omar The Sloppy, taking a page from Callaspo, apparently.

I shall refrain from further comment on Matt Tuiasosopo, in order to avoid a repeat of last night’s hex. At bats weren’t good.

The A’s have been beating the Tigers at their own game, hitting-wise. Give them some credit. Now it’s up to Doug Fister to turn that around, and I think he’s just the guy. Vida Blue was a late scratch for the A’s. Instead, they send out RHP Dan “Cy” Straily, who may cause us to sigh frailly.

This one-game, 6-inning slump from Cabrera is alarming. He needs to get back on track with another one-pitch, multi-run HR in the 1st, I say. I mean, come on, Miguel. Dues to pay. You gotta earn that money, carry your weight. Every day. For our sakes.