Category Archives: 2007 Season

2007 Season, Research

Mike Rabelo – the anti-save

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I don’t know if you’ve noticed or not, but Todd Jones and Mike Rabelo don’t really go together. If Jones is peanut butter, Rabelo is asparagus and if you look back at the game logs you see that Mike Rabelo has caught half of games where Jones has allowed runs. Luckily it seems that Jim Leyland has picked up on this, and has Ivan Rodriguez catch Jones in his last 13 appearances. A period where Jones has allowed a meager .490 OPS against.

On June 26th the Tigers were hosting the Rangers at the beginning of a lengthy homestand. Todd Jones entered the game in the 9th inning with the score tied at 6 after the Tigers scored 3 in the bottom of the 8th. After 2 quick outs Jones allowed a few baserunners and there seemed to be a conference between every single pitch with catcher Mike Rabelo. A triple and a single later the Tigers were down 3. After the game Jones admitted to missing a sign from Rabelo. He was supposed to step off the rubber, and instead gave up a hit. That was the last game that Rabelo has caught Jones.

And I’m pretty sure this isn’t a matter of coincidence. Twice Rabelo was the starting catcher, only to be replaced by Pudge at the end of the game for defensive purposes.

Looking back, Jones has allowed runs in 10 of his apperances and in 5 of those Mike Rabelo was the catcher. Jones has 5 blown saves, and Rabelo was manning the plate for 3 of them. Remember April 18th against the Royals? The Tigers take a 3-1 lead into the 9th inning. Jones walked 2 and allowed a double and a single tying the game.

Or what about May 28th against the Devil Rays? The Tigers have a 5-4 lead when Jones loads the bases on 2 hits and an intentional walk only to see Elijah Dukes single in the winning run on a chopper. Rabelo.

And who could forget the low point of the season (at least the low point before this week). The debacle on June 1st in Cleveland. Jones allowed 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th for a crushing 12-11 defeat. Rabelo.

In all, 12 of the 23 runs Jones has allowed have come with Rabelo behind the dish, which is disproportionately high for the backup catcher.

I don’t mean this as an indictment of Rabelo’s ability. His overall catchers ERA is 4.66 which is only slightly higher than Pudge’s 4.47. Given Rabelo’s limited playing time I’m not sure that is even a real difference. But for some reason, he and Jones just never seemed on the same page. They seemed to confer on a regular basis, and the Rangers game was just a manifestation of that. So if the game is close, and Rabelo is playing, you’ll probably continue to see Pudge get that 9th inning call.

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 8/1/07

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Toledo 2 Charlotte 1
Brent Clevlen went 3 for 3 with a walk. Anastacio Martinez allowed just 1 unearned run on 2 hits over 6 innings while fanning 9. Fernando Rodney had trouble with the strike zone and only recorded one out in his 15 pitches while allowing a hit and a walk and only throwing 7 strikes

Erie 5 New Britain 0
Steve Torrealba singled and homered. Mike Hollimon also homered. Jeff Larish was 1 for 3 with a walk. Jair Jurrjens fanned 10 and walked none in a 3 hit complete game shutout.

Lakeland – double header rained out

Peoria 1 West Michigan 3
Scott Sizemore and James Skelton were 2 for 4. Jeff Gerbe was activated and pitched 3 no hit innings fanning 2. Charlie Furbush went 5 innings and allowed an unearned run on 2 hits in 5 innings. Brett Jensen finished it off by fanning 2 in the 9th.

Oneonta 3 Staten Island 2 11 innings
Ronnie Bourquin was 3 for 5. Casper Wells and Kody Kaiser each homered. Alfredo Figaro pitched 5 shut out innings fanning 7 and walking 4.

GCL Braves 1 GCL Tigers 1 (game suspend due to rain)
Hayden Parrot went 1 for 3. Brandon Hamilton walked 2 and fanned 2 to go along with 1 run and 1 hit in 3 innings. Richard Zumaya followed with 3 scoreless innings of 1 hit ball.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 107: Tigers at A’s

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PREGAME: The ridiculously long, and very disappointing, road trip finally comes to an end. The Tigers will also get their first day off tomorrow since July 16th. Unfortunately it won’t be their last trip to the West Coast because they have 3 more against Oakland at the end of August.

Today it will be Nate Robertson, who gutted out 6 innings his last time out, but submarined the Tigers chances of victory with 8 runs allowed in just 2 innings.

He’ll take on Dallas Braden who was shelled in his last start to the tune of 7 runs (3 were unearned) in 4 innings.

Game Time 3:35

POSTGAME: Another day another loss. This time Nate Robertson did his job and turned in a quality start. He lasted through 6 innings because the A’s got jumpy with 14 batters swinging at the first pitch. But save for a rough 3rd inning and a huge Mark Ellis blast he had an easy go of it.

Of course he left things in a precarious state for Chad Durbin. Durbin did a fine job coming in with a 2nd and 3rd nobody out situation and keeping the ball in the infield as no one crossed the plate. Of course Bobby Seay nearly undid his good work by walking 2 and plunking a batter before Jason Grilli picked up the last out.

The offense had their chances with 12 baserunners but only managed to plate 2 runs. Some of it was poor execution and some was just unfortunate. Kind of like the whole roadtrip in a nutshell.

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/31/07

Richmond 4 Toledo 8
Brent Clevlen and Erick Almonte each had 2 hits. Jack Hannahan homered and added walks. Dennis Tankersley allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings. Eulogio De La Cruz fanned 3, but allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 2 innings. Fernando Rodney allowed 2 singles and fanned 1 in 2/3 innings before reaching his 15 pitch limit.

Erie 2 New Britain 6
Wil Rhymes had 2 hits and a walk. Jeff Larish also chipped in 2 hits. Dallas Trahern took the loss allowing 6 runs on 9 hits in 6 innings.

Lakeland – Doubleheader rain out

Peoria 3 West Michigan 7
Brandon Timm was a homer short of the cycle. Gorkys Hernandez doubled wtice and homered. James Skelton homered, singled, and walked. Matt O’Brien allowed 3 runs on 6 hits, 1 walk and 2 K’s in 7 2/3 innings.

Oneonta 2 Staten Island 4
Chris Carlson homered as part of a 3 for 4 day. Guillermo Moscoso was knocked around for 8 hits in 4 innings leading to 3 runs.

GCL Tigers 3 GCL Braves 6
Carlos Ramirez hit his 2nd homer. Ryan Roberson on a rehab assignment walked twice in 4 PAs. Luke Putkonen started and was lifted in the first inning after only 5 batters. Not sure if he was injured. Jon Kibler came in and fanned 6 while allowing just 1 hit in 4 1/3 innings.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 106: Tigers at A’s

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PREGAME: Tonight looks to be a primo pitching match-up with Justin Verlander taking on Dan Haren.

Verlander allowed only 3 hits and 3 walks in his last start and managed 7 innings.

Haren has a case for the Cy Young award this year. He’s made 4 straight quality starts. The Tigers faced him last year and knocked him around for 7 runs in just 6 innings.

Monroe stays in the lineup tonight, and Mike Rabelo fills in for Pudge Rodriguez who dropped his appeal and will serve his suspension tonight.

Game Time 10:05
DET @ OAK, Tuesday, July 31, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: And another clunker. Macay McBride was awful. Jason Grilli was bad. The defense made 2 errors. The offense failed to score after the 2nd inning. Verlander had no control and couldn’t make it out of the 6th inning. A total team effort.

Congrats to Placido Polanco on setting the record for errorless chances. If he can go 10 more games he’ll break Luis Castillo’s record for errorless games as well.

2007 Season, Trade Rumors, Trades

Trade Deadline Day

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I’ll be doing my day job today, so if anything happens, I probably won’t be able to hit it until after the 4pm deadline. But if something does happen and you want to post it here and help the community, all the better.

As for the latest buzz, Morosi thinks if anything happens it will be with the Pirates and again he’s banging on the Jack Wilson drum. I don’t know if he’s advocating this, or merely pointing out a fit. Of course the fit would simply be the fact that the Tigers take on a lot of money for this year and next year for a guy that can’t hit a lick and would be available for free on waivers after today – kind of like Neifi Perez last yearjjj. Pointing out that he is an “expert defender” doesn’t comfort me when you look at his 641 OPS. And it’s not like he’s fast, he’s 0 for 3 on steals. This would be an awful move.

POSTGAME:
Today mostly became about hoping that the Jack Wilson trade wouldn’t come to fruition. Bless You Boys found a report that a deal was nearly complete that would have sent Brent Clevlen to the Pirates for Wilson and all his salary along with reliever Solomon Torres. But the Pirates asked for Jurrjens instead and that nixed it. Taking on Wilson’s salary and contract no matter what the Tigers gave up would have been a disaster because he can’t hit and is only average defensively. And because he’s an old NL player I get the feeling he would have had way too much playing time. And that is an exorbitant cost for a guy that is replacement level.

But Dave Dombrowski said that it never got that close. He also mentioned that the Tigers did make a run at Dotel

which he believed came down to Royals GM Dayton Moore knowing Kyle Davies better from his time running the Braves farm system. “We were prepared to put up a quality player, who talentwise might even be a better player.”

Am I happy with the pen the way it is? I’m certainly not thrilled, but I also think that the Tigers didn’t have to make a move at all costs.

2007 Season, Game Post

Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/30/07

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Toledo 10 Richmond 3
Dane Sardhina enjoyed himself with 3 homers, a walk, and 7 RBI. Erick Almonte also homered as part of a 2 for 4, 1 walk night. Ron Chiavacci allowed 2 runs on 2 walk, 6 hits and 8 K’s in 6 innings.

Erie DNP

Clearwater 2 Lakeland 7
Ovandy Suero hit his first homer and added a single. Danny Worth doubled twice and walked. Angel Castro went 4 2/3 innings and allowed 2 unearned runs on 2 hits and a walk.

Clearwater 7 Lakeland 5
Cameron Maybin returned to Lakeland and had 2 doubles and a triple and had flyballs in all 4 at bats. Deik Scram tripled and singled twice. Danny Worth had a 2 hit night. Lucas French allowed 6 runs, 3 earned, on 4 hits and 4 walks in 4 1/3 innings.

Peoria 3 West Michigan 2
Brennan Boesch had 2 hits, as did Brandon Timm. Audy Ciriaco went 3 for 4. Lauren Gagnier allowed 2 runs on 6 hits, a walk, and 5 K’s in 6 innings.

Oneonta 2 Staten Island 3
There were only 4 singles for the O-Tigs. Mark Brackman went 5 2/3 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 hits, 3 walks, and 4 K’s.

GCL Tigers 1 GCL Indians 6
Craig Maddox had the only Tigers hit. Emmanuel Miguelez allowed 5 runs on 9 hits in 4 innings. This one ended early due to rain.

Minors News

For those who were curious about the early exits of Tigers’ Top 10 prospects Gorkys Hernandez and Mike Hollimon yesterday, they weren’t pulled due to injury or a pending trade. Hollimon was lifted so that Nick McIntyre, who hadn’t played for 5 days, could get some action ahead of today’s off day. In the case of Hernandez he was yanked for not running out a ground ball.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 105: Tigers at A’s

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PREGAME: I wish I could exercise some game post mo-jo, but I’m at a loss. I’ve tried long posts and short posts. I’ve tried 3 different hats and 2 different pieces of furniture to watch the game on. Nothing is working. Mrs. Billfer asked during last night’s debacle if the Tigers had any easy games coming up. I explained that the Royals and White Sox were last place teams and the Angels had lost 7 of their last 10. Right now I don’t think any game is easy for the Tigers.

Maybe Jordan Tata can be the elixir. He’ll make his first career start tonight instead of Kenny Rogers who is on the DL. I’m sure Kenny is disappointed to miss this game, what with his 25-4 career record pitching in Oakland. Maybe this is just the sort of unfortunate coincidence that the Tigers need.

Hopefully the Tigers can get to Joe Blanton early and often. Blanton has allowed double digit hits in his last 4 starts. Scoring off of Blanton means going station to station because he’s only allowed 11 homers in 153 innings this year. He’s also a much better pitcher at home with a 568 OPS against in Oakland and a 732 OPS against on the road.

Game Time 10:05
DET @ OAK, Monday, July 30, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Ah, a win. Delightful. Jordan Tata delivered more than I could have expected by a)not allowing much of the offense and b)doing it for 7 innings. Six easy outs later from Chad Durbin and Todd Jones and the Tigers are embarking on a new win streak. Yes, the A’s offense is no great shakes, but neither was the White Sox and that proved to be a struggle.

Tigers 5 A’s 2

2007 Season

Comparing Kenny Rogers to Kenny Rogers

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As the Tigers announced that Kenny Rogers was headed to the disabled list, I was finishing up some analysis on Rogers. Diving into the enhanced gameday goldmine, I looked to compare and contrast two of Rogers’s starts. His first game back against Atlanta when he was sterling and his last outing against the White Sox when he was hammered. Now we know that elbow inflammation was the cause of the problem, but how was the inflammation effecting Rogers?

The first thing I thought I would look at where Rogers was throwing the ball. Here we have pitch location from the June 22nd Atlanta start.
rogerslocate.jpg
Notice that everything is at the bottom half of the zone if it’s over the plate at all. He kept quite a few pitches on the edges, especially coming inside to right handed batters.

Now look at the Chicago start on July 25th.
rogerschicagolocate.jpg
There are quite a few more pitches up, both in the zone and above it. Also, he tended to stay on first base side of the plate – which would typically be away from the right handed heavy lineup he’d face. But he was still in the strike zone with the bulk of those pitches. Rogers strength, as evidenced in the Braves was game i s getting strikes on balls outside of the zone.

Let’s move on to pitch movement and pitch selection. Movement as captured in enhanced gameday is explained pretty succinctly at the Hardball Times. Again, the top chart shows Rogers pitch movement by speed. The cluster of red pitches at the top is his regular fastball, which has little sink and is of course faster than his other pitches. The cluster of blue pitches at the bottom is a breaking pitch. Finally there is a cluster of pitches thrown in the low 80’s that have more sink than the fastball and a little more horizontal movement. I’m guessing these are a mix of change ups and 2 seam fastballs.
rogersmove.jpg
Now the same graph for the Chicago start.
rogersmovechicago.jpg
So that plot is hard to draw conclusions from, except that Rogers seemed to be throwing the ball harder more consistently. But also, there doesn’t seem to be the same delineation between pitches (except for the breaking ball). But taking the pitch speed out of the equation, we can just plot the 2 starts against each other (I tried to include velocity as well and differentiate shapes and it just got messy).
rogersmovecomp.jpg
It becomes pretty clear on this graph that Rogers just wasn’t getting the same downward movement in his last time out. And this is probably the driving force of his struggles. Not only does it result in balls up in the zone, it results in balls up in the zone that have less movement and are thus easier to hit. Without overpowering velocity this spells disaster.

As for velocity, that wasn’t an issue at all – or at least a lack of it wasn’t an issue. Rogers was throwing the ball harder in Chicago.

MPH	ATL	CHI
<72	6	1
72-74	6	7
74-76	8	7
76-78	10	3
78-80	10	7
80-82	15	11
82-84	4	22
84-86	6	5
86-88	7	13
88-90	2	13
>90	0	5

In the past Kenny has said he’s better in the mid to high 80’s because otherwise his ball flattens out. I wonder if the extra velocity caused the lack of drop in his pitches, or if he ramped up the speed to compensate for a lack of location. Chicken, egg, who knows.

In any case, Kenny Rogers finds himself on the DL with elbow inflammation. Whether it is because he tried to come back to soon, or if it is simply a matter of a 42 year old pitcher breaking down the Tigers are now in a bind. Jordan Tata will get the next start, and after that I’m not sure. It could be some combination of Tata/Vasquez/Bazardo or Chad Durbin may be back in the rotation.

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 7/29/07

Richmond 1 Toledo 2
Virgil Vasquez allowed 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings. He gave way to Eulogio De La Cruz who allowed 2 hits but fanned 2 in his inning of work. Fernando Rodney made it through his inning allowing a hit, and striking out a batter and throwing 7 of his 9 pitches for strikes. Chris Shelton was the offense with 2 hits including his 11th homer.

Harrisburg 4 Erie 7
Pedro Cotto had 3 hits. Wil Rhymes and Matt Joyce each went 2 for 5. Kody Kirkland fanned 3 times in 3 at-bats. Andrew Kown allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 4 innings.

Lakeland – DNP

West Michigan 6 Cedar Rapids 2
Jordan Newton knocked 2 homers and James Skelton doubled and walked twice. Duane Below fanned 8 in 4 innings and allowed 1 run on 4 walks.

Aberdeen 6 Oneonta 7
Casper Wells tripled and singled. Jorge Patino went 3 for 4. Sendy Vasquez allowed 6 runs on 9 hits over 4 innings.

GCL Tigers DNP

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 104: Tigers at Angels

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PREGAME: Am I the only one that hates the Sunday night games? In any case, it’s Joe MOrgan time as the Tigers look to not get swept. They’re playing some really bad baseball.

Now the last time the Tigers were looking to avoid a sweep, they were also playing on a Sunday night and Jeremy Bonderman was also starting. The Tigers won a 1-0 nail biter against the Twins. Here’s hoping that the Tigers can turn that trick again.

To do it they’ll have to get to Dustin Moseley. Moseley’s last 2 outings have been twins, 1 run, 6 innings, 5 hits. Of course those starts were in April and he’s been in the bullpen since then. His last time out he gave up 5 runs in 2 2/3 innings of relief work.

Game time 8:05

DET @ LAA, Sunday, July 29, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com