Category Archives: 2007 Season

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers have 3rd best draft in 2007

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While it is probably a little premature to rate any draft after only 4 months, this is especially true in baseball. In many cases drafted players haven’t played in a league type setting, or if they have the experience has been limited to short season ball. Still, Baseball America likes the early returns for the Detroit Tigers in this year’s amateur draft.

BA rated the Tigers as having the 3rd best draft behind the Nationals and Rangers. Detroit ranked ahead of the Giants and Yankees who rounded out the top 5.  The full article is premium content, so I’ll just hit the highlights.

The Tigers draftees received some individual accolades on a variety of top 5 lists including:

  • Danny Worth – 4th best defensive player
  • Rick Porcello – 2nd best fastball
  • Rick Porcello – 4th best secondary pitch
  • Colin Kaline & Cale Iorg – 3rd and 4th most intriguing backgrounds
  • Rick Porcello – 5th closest to the majors among high schoolers

There was also a draft all star team selected based on performance and level of play.  No Tigers made the team. 

In terms of early returns I’d have to say that Charlie Furbush (61 2/3 innings, 2.35 ERA, 69K, 14 BB at GCL and West Michigan) and Danny Worth (251/325/363 in High A ball) had the strongest debuts.  While Worth’s numbers weren’t dazzling, he gets extra credit because he debuted at such a high level for a new draftee.

Of course the strength of the Tigers draft was in the players who signed late and haven’t yet competed outside of the instructional league. In addition to Porcello, players like Casey Crosby, Iorg, and Matt Hoffman are who helped earn the Tigers such a high overall ranking. They are also the players who will hopefully make for an entertaining minor league season.

BaseballAmerica.com: Draft: 2007 Draft Report Cards Overview
2007 Tigers Draft – The Baseball Cube

2007 Season, Contracts

Bang for the buck

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Net Win Shares Value is Dave Studeman’s attempt to assess the value of a player and their contract.  He released some of his findings today, and there are several Tigers items worth pointing out.

Net Win Shares Value looks at the 3 different classes of players (not eligible for arbitration, arbitration eligible, and free agents) and compares the win shares above bench (the number of win shares that an average bench player would accrue given the playing time) to a player’s salary above the minimum.

The Best

As to the Tiger related items, Detroit had 2 of the top 10 best values in 2007.  Not surprisingly Curtis Granderson made the list at 9th as he turned in a season that has landed him on many MVP ballots at just a hair over the minimum salary.  What is more surprising, at least to me, is that Magglio Ordonez was the 5th best value on the list.  Ordonez season was outstanding, but he also made $15 million last year.  For him to “overcome” his salary to be that much of a value is a testament to how truly amazing his performance was.

Also of note on the top 10 best values list, there were 3 Cleveland Indians:  Fausto Carmona, Grady Sizemore, and Victor Martinez.  So it’s easy to see why the Indians had the success they had even with a smaller payroll.  It also means that half of the top 10 best values in 2007 came from the AL Central.

The Worst

The Tigers had 2 guys on the list of the 10 worst values as well.  Can you guess them?  No, one of them isn’t Brandon Inge.  Craig Monroe and Mike Maroth finished 7th and 8th on the list.  Neither was paid a whole lot this past season, they were just that bad.  Maroth though did a lot of his damage with the Cardinals as he went from “not good” in the AL to “really, really bad” in the National League. 

Now there is one area where this method fails to capture the worst values.  If a player is injured, he doesn’t really show up as a poor value for not playing.  So a Kenny Rogers who missed most of the year, doesn’t show up as a bad value because when he did play, he played well.  So a Carl Pavano is actually a worse value than many other players, but he wouldn’t show up on this list.

Getting their money’s worth

Dave also posted a table that highlights the teams that got the most and the least from their free agents. The Tigers finished 3rd best, which doesn’t really surprise because their free agent class players were mostly productive. In addition to Ordonez, the Tigers got great value in Placido Polanco who turned in a very good season – and cheaply. Carlos Guillen was good as usual, and in the last year of his old deal he was still cheap. And Todd Jones probably contributed more than Jose Mesa detracted
2007 Net Win Shares Value — The Hardball Times

2007 Season, Playoffs

The World Series

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I’ve somehow made it all the way through the playoffs without actually blogging about them. It’s not that I haven’t cared, I’ve watched the games. It’s just that I haven’t had a lot to say. That’s still true, but this is the World Series and all.

Will the Rockies stay so ridiculously hot? Will the Red Sox talent prevail? Hell if I know. Will the layoff effect the Rockies? Will first base effect David Ortiz? All questions that are probably better answered by the bloggers who follow their teams year round.

In any case, enjoy the Series and feel free to comment here.

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching, Players

Leveraging Todd Jones

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WPA Leaders

Rank Name WPA
1 J.J. Putz 6.17
2 R. Betancourt 5.38
3 Takashi Saito 4.27
4 Heath Bell 4.12
5 Joakim Soria 3.85
6 J. Papelbon 3.72
7 Joe Nathan 3.63
8 F. Rodriguez 2.95
9 Hideki Okajima 2.93
10 Pat Neshek 2.83
11 Carlos Marmol 2.8
12 Brandon Lyon 2.8
13 J. Isringhausen 2.75
14 Manuel Corpas 2.71
15 Tony Pena 2.56
39 Todd Jones 1.57

WPA or win probability added tracks a teams chances of winning over the course of a game and the measure for an individual player is the difference in win probability when a player enters the game compared to when they leave. WPA of .5 represents 1 win. The complete list of WPA reliever leaders can be found at Fangraphs.

Last week Dave Dombrowski indicated that the club would like to have Todd Jones back, but under the condition that he may be moved out of the closer’s role at some point during the season. Right now the ball is in Todd Jones court as he evaluates his options, and tries for a gig closer to his Alabama home. But is a set up role better for Jones than as the 9th inning man?

Not your typical closer

Jones doesn’t possess one trait that is common among closers, an ability to strike hitters out. In 2007 Todd Jones was dead last, by a considerable margin, among closers (or people who finished at least 35 games). His 4.84 was considerably behind David Weathers 5.56. What’s more is that there were 12 closers who’s K-rate was more than double that of Jones.

Still, Jones manages success because of other things he doesn’t do. His renaissance as a closer came in 2005 with the Florida Marlins when he simply stopped walking people. He only issued 25 free passes between 2005 and 2006 in over 130 innings. However in 2007 he struggled with his control, relatively speaking and issued 23 walks in 61.1 innings, and that put him in the bottom half of closers.

So with a bad strike out rate, and a not so good walk rate, he must have had sterling defense behind him right? Not so much. His batting average on balls in play was .299 which ranked in the bottom 3rd, or the top 3rd depending on your point of view, but it’s the bad 3rd regardless.

Look at these numbers, how did Jones manage to have blown save numbers comparable to Francisco Rodriguez and Bobby Jenks? He had 2 things working for him. The first is that he keeps the ball in the park. He only allowed only allowed 3 homers this year, and a slugging percentage of .371 meant that it would take several hits for Jones to blow a save.
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2007 Season, Former Tigers

First base irony

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At the start of the 2006 season the Tigers had a log jam at first base with Dmitri Young, Carlos Pena, and Chris Shelton set to man that position and DH. Pena was jettisoned in the spring, while Dmitri Young battled legal and substance abuse problems spending a chunk of the season on the DL in rehab. Meanwhile Chris Shelton was ripping the ball in April putting up Ruthian numbers.

Fast forward to September 2006. Dmitri Young is released during a rain delay, Chris Shelton is toiling in the minors, and the Tigers have traded for Sean Casey who isn’t hitting a lick.

Fast forward to October 2007. Chris Shelton is still in the minors as he used up his last option year. Sean Casey slugged on the wrong side of .400 when as a first baseman .400 is the wrong side of .500. And Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena win comeback player of the year awards in their respective leagues.

You can lament the Tigers moves, but they were also defensible. Young had a lot of problems last year, and they were problems he wasn’t solving in Detroit. And while I was against releasing Pena, he floundered all of last year and barely sniffed playing time with the Yankees and Red Sox and was even cut this year in Tampa. Again, I don’t think he has this type of season if he’s still with Detroit.

So instead of being frustrated, I’ll simply say congratulations to Dmitri Young for getting his life and career back on track. And congratulations to Carlos Pena for realizing his potential before it was too late.

2007 Season, Statistics

The 9th Inning

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All season, reader Sam Hoff has been calculating the team’s performance over 18 game stretches. Why 18? Because it represents 1/9th, or one inning of the season. Here is his 9th inning report. Thanks to Sam for his contributions all season

The 9th Inning is over.

Each 18 games represent 1 inning of a baseball season. The Tigers record for each inning in 2007:

                                                     Starters:         Bullpen:
    W-L   RS-RA   HR-SB-AVG/OBA/SLG    W-L-IP-   ERA       W-L-S-ERA
1: 10-8   86 -79  17-9 -235/313/380    5-2-110.2-3.66      5-6-8-4.68 
2: 13-5   112-97  23-10-308/377/518    9-3-102.1-4.84      4-2-8-5.03
3: 7-11   110-96  26-7 -310/364/517    7-7-110.2-3.99      0-4-3-7.80
4: 13-5   136-75  20-5 -324/390/508   13-4-103.0-4.37      0-1-2-3.47
5: 11-7   91 -79  23-20-272/357/443   10-5-112.0-3.46      1-2-7-3.33 
6: 7-11   84 -113 17-8 -276/325/415    3-8- 99.2-6.59      4-3-6-4.31
7: 7-11   83 -110 20-10-266/315/436   4-10-101.0-6.50      3-1-4-5.12
8: 10-8   95 -77  15-18-298/373/455    4-5- 91.1-4.93      6-3-1-3.18
9: 10-8   90 -71  16-16-292/349/445    7-6-101.1-4.17      3-2-5-3.15

In my 8th inning recap I said that the Tigers needed a 14 win 9th inning to have a shot. In retrospect, that wouldn’t have been good enough. They would of needed 16 wins to tie the Yankees, or subjectively 15 wins including a sweep of the Indians to tie them. The 9th inning started 5-1 before getting swept at Cleveland which effectively ended the hope for post season. They played 5-4 after being swept.

In looking at the season above, it is the three 7-11 innings that did the Tigers in. It is no coincidence that those 3 innings are also the only inning in which either the bullpen or the starters had an era over 5.03. No matter what the Tiger offense does (and they outscored the 2006 version by 65 runs), it all comes down to pitching as the Tigers 2007 ERA jumped by 0.74 (3.84 to 4.58). Those numbers are even more exaggerated when you consider that the American League saw less scoring in 2007.

I’d like to say the Tigers should rebound, but they have the oldest batters in AL (average age 30.9, older than the Yankees 30.6). They also have the 5th oldest pitching staff (28.5, lower than only Boston, NYY, Baltimore, and Cleveland). The pitching age is probably a deceiving figure as the Tigers do have a bevy of young starters.

In the 9th inning, the offense was lead by regulars Ordonez 2-11-397/462/603, Guillen 2-8-299/356/478, and Granderson 2-3-273/355/455. Casey ended his Tiger career with 1-6-424/457/545 in 33 abs. Timo Perez flirted with 400 having 0-7-381/409/500. Righty platoon players Hessman, Rayburn, and Thames went a combined 6-20-302/333/698 on only 63 abs (Interestingly Rayburn and Hessman hit RHP better during the year, although Thames had a huge advantage against LHP). Polanco went 1-4-309/338/412 and Santiago had a similar 0-5-312/333/406. Sheffield> 1-4-234/379/319, Pudge> 0-7-269/278/346, and Inge> 0-6-167/224/222 all limped to the end of personal subpar years. Rabelo, Infante, Cleven, and Maybin went a combined 1-4-163/200/279 in 43 abs.

The Starters were lead by Nate Robertson who was 2-2-3.25era in 4 starts (Nate also had a nice 1st inning as he was 4-3-2.67era-1.15whip in the 1st and 9th innings, and 5-10-5.68-1.62 in innings 2-8). Verlander was 2-1-4.38 giving up 6 HRs including 4 against Cleveland in his 9/18 start. Rogers may have ended his career with 0-2-4.26-1.63. Jurrgens 2-0-5.74-1.34 and Bazardo 1-0-1.84-1.16 may have given us a preview of things to come in 2008.

The bullpen had a very solid 9th inning performance. Lefties Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay completed very nice seasons by combining for 2-0-0.69-0.92 in 13 innings. Righties Grilli and Miner combined for 0-1-2.25-1.58 in 12 innings. The back end of the bullpen of Zoom-Zoom, Rodney, and Jones combined for 1-1-5sv-2.75-1.07 in 19.2 innings. The rest of the bullpen was 0-0-8.38-1.55 in 9.2 innings.

It should be an interesting off season. The last 2 years have been similar in the fact that the team started strong then hit huge speed bump. In 2006 the Tigers had the best record in baseball at 76-36 on 8/7, but went 11-23 in their next 34 games then finished 8-8 to go 95-67. In 2007, the Tigers had the best record in baseball at 57-36 on 7/19, but went 11-23 in their next 34 games. A 20-15 after that lead to an 88-74 overall finish.

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Contracts, Free Agents, Pitching

Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow

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Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics.  Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points.  Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.

Pudge Rodriguez

No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.

Todd Jones

Beck says:

They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.

I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.

The rotation

Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.

Left Field

Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.

Jurrjens and Sheffield

Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.

Beck’s Blog: No extension for Leyland … yet

2007 Season, Players

Stay classy Sean Casey

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While there is a lot up in the air regarding the Tigers roster, one thing isn’t and that is Sean Casey’s future.  Casey met with Dombrowski and Leyland and they let him know he won’t be returning.

This isn’t a big surprise given the Tigers announcement that Carlos Guillen would be moving to first base.  And while there was a contingent who would like to see Casey kept around as a pinch hitter, it isn’t feasible in an era of 12 man pitching staffs.  Casey can’t run and can only play the easiest defensive position to fill which just isn’t enough to justify a roster spot.

Casey was a popular guy, but the production just wasn’t there.  His .296/.354/394 line was about as good as what could be expected given his career numbers.  The only real surprising part of his season is that he stayed healthy.

Casey was basically all of the Tigers offense in the World Series last year and so Tigers fans should have some fond memories of The Mayor.

Casey won’t return to Tigers

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 162: Tigers at White Sox

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PREGAME: Sigh.

List of team and offensive feats that may happen today so there is something to root for:

  • Magglio Ordonez needs to not go 0 for 6 and Ichiro Suzuki needs to not make an out and the Tigers have their first batting champ since 1961.  Maggs is also looking to see if he can add on at all, and perhaps move ahead of Norm Cash’s .361 average.
  • Placido Polanco needs one more hit to reach 200.  If he gets to 200, it will mark the first time since 1937 2 Tigers have finished with 200 or more hits.
  • Curtis Granderson is at .299 and will try to push that to .300
  • Ordonez needs 3 RBI to become only the 4th Tiger to ever drive in 140 runs in a season
  • The team is 2 doubles shy of matching the team record for doubles in a season set in 1934
  • The team has 1634 hits which is the highest total since the 1934 club notched 1638

Game Time 2:05
DET @ CHW, Sunday, September 30, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Considering what the Tigers had left to play for, everything came up roses today. Polanco got his 200th hit and finished an errorless season. Guillen got his 2 RBIs. Granderson finished over .300 picking up 3 hits (not to mention a walk, a HBP, and 3 steals).

And Magglio Ordonez already had pretty much locked up the batting title, but a 3 hit day pushed his average to .363. That’s the highest mark for a Tiger since Charlie Gehringer’s .371 in 1937. In case you missed it, FSN Detroit was cutting into the Venezuelan broadcast after each Ordonez hit, and while my Spanish skills are limited to what I learned in high school (which has been refreshed by Dora the Explorer), there was no mistaking the excitement.

Even Mike Rabelo managed to get a homer today, and while the bullpen was going crazy for him, his own teammates were giving him the silent treatment.

It really wasn’t the way anybody wanted to the end the season, but all things considered they made the best of what they had today. And it was fun. It was fun watching the team having fun. Exactly 6 months until we get to start it up again.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 161: Tigers at White Sox

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PREGAME: So Jim Leyland announced that Magglio Ordonez wouldn’t be playing tonight taking away the most compelling story line for the Tigers. I guess we’ll just have to settle for seeing if the Tigers can solve the riddle that is Gavin Floyd. Floyd has allowed 1 run in his last 2 starts combined against Detroit. Floyd has a 5.71 ERA overall.

For the Tigers it will be Justin Verlander. Verlander struggled with the White Sox last year, but allowed 3 runs in 7 innings in each of his 2 starts against the Sox this year.

DET @ CHW, Saturday, September 29, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: Justin Verlander had a solid night with the only blemish coming on a Thome-esque 2 run homer. It did take him 117 pitches to get through 6 innings, but he picked up 7 strike outs along the way.

For the Tigers the offense came via solo homers by Carlos Guillen and Marcus Thames, and that was it for the good guys scoring.

Doug Eddings had a poor game umping at second base, taking down Jermaine Dye and blowing a call in the 9th inning that ultimately hurt the Tigers. Eddings is famous/infamous for hit controversial call in the 2005 World Series. He’s also the ump who had the stopwatch on Rafael Betancourt.

That said, if Rodney hadn’t walked Darin Erstad, or if Ryan Raburn picks up the ball in right field, maybe we’re still playing.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 160: Tigers at White Sox

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PREGAME: Tonight it will be Javier Vasquez taking on Kenny Rogers.

Vasquez has been on a mission as of late with 33 K’s, and only 3 walk in his last 21 1/3 innings pitched.

Rogers has been solid since returning from the disabled list compiling a 2.96 ERA in 4 September starts. He’s fanned 18 and walked 7 over that span.

Game Time 8:11
DET @ CHW, Friday, September 28, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 159: Twins at Tigers

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PREGAME: The last home game of the year. [blogger looks melancholy]

A couple years ago I started going to the last home game of the year and it’s kind of become a little tradition. Kind of like opening day only sadder. Still, it’s my own way of saying good bye to summer. It’s overcast and drizzly and it really does seem like the summer is over now.

In any case, it will be Johan Santana taking on Jair Jurrjens. Jurrjens was roughed up in his last start as he battled his command – the element that had made him so effective in his other starts. But in his last start against the Twins he took a no hitter into the sixth inning. I’m hoping for more of that.

And chances are he’ll need it because I don’t like the Tigers chances of tagging Santana for 4 runs again in the first inning like they did in his last start.

Game Time 7:05 pm
MIN @ DET, Wednesday, September 26, 2007 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com

POSTGAME: No, I didn’t stay through the rain delay this time. It was a slightly different circumstance, being with the kids on a school night and all. Still, we enjoyed our abbreviated night.

There was a nice on field ceremony to recognize Pudge’s 2000 games caught, Granderson’s quad-20, Polanco’s errorless streak, and Todd Jones 300th save. Meanwhile, their teammates were signing a ton of autographs and talking with the fans. An hour and a half before the game, Fernando Rodney was the only player from either team out on the field, and he was signing for whoever had something.

As for the game itself, Jurrjens couldn’t find the strike zone in the first inning, and it resulted in 4 runs. Fortunately Johan Santana couldn’t find the strike zone, and got no help from his defenders, and it resulted in 3 runs for the Tigers.

In this situation the rain delay favored the Tigers as both starting pitchers were knocked out, and as well as Jurrjens has done, he ain’t no Santana. And the Tigers jumped all over Blackburn, Santana’s replacement, as they batted around in the 4th. That proved to be the end of the scoring as the rains once again came.

So they shut the lights off at Comerica for the last time tonight, and the Yankees made it official by stomping the Devil Rays. Sigh.