Category Archives: 2007 Season

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 63: Brewers at Tigers

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PREGAME: Sixty-two down, one hundred to go. As quick as this season is zipping along, there is still a lot of baseball left to play. The last 100 starts with a home tilt against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers just never feel quite like an interleague game, probably due to all the times the Tigers played Cecil Cooper, Robin Yount, and Ben Oglivie in the 80’s.

But tonight the Tigers and Justin Verlander will take on Jeff Suppan.

Suppan has been pretty bad his last half dozen starts with a 5.59 ERA and he’s allowed 8 homers, 18 walks, and only 13 strikeouts.

Verlander is coming off of 7 innings of shut out ball in Texas. Prior to that was his shellacking against the Indians. So there isn’t really a trend here, but on the whole Verlander has a 3.12 ERA for the season so there’s been more good than bad.

In Baseball Prospectus today there was an article about wasted at-bats, or ABs by sub-replacement-level players. The Tigers have the smallest percentage of such at-bats on the season with only 4.2%. All those belong to Neifi Perez. I bring this up because he’s starting tonight for Carlos Guillen who is still hampered by his hamstring issue. Perez is 6 for 18 lifetime off of Suppan.

Game Time 7:05

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap – 6/11/07

Norfolk 6 Toledo 4
Chris Shelton went yard for only the 4th time this season. Jack Hannahan and Ramon Santiago each had 2 hits. Dennis Tankersley allowed 6 runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. he walked 4 and allowed 8 hits. Eulogio De La Cruz pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings allowing only 2 hits. Another couple solid outings and he’ll be the next candidate in bullpen roulette.

Erie – DNP

Lakeland 2 Sarasota 12
Ramon Garcia made his first start since last year. He was very good for West Michigan in the first half of the year before going down with injury. Tonight he allowed 7 runs on 8 hits in 2 1/3 innings of work. Michael Hernandez and Ovandy Suero each hit doubles.

Great Lakes 5 West Michigan 4
Deik Scram and Gorkys Hernandez each had 3 hits. Jonah Nickerson allowed 10 hits and 5 runs over 6 innings.

Great Lakes West Michigan (in progress)

2007 Season, Offense, Statistics

Comerica Hitters Park

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The Tigers offense has been getting all kinds of well deserved pub. They’re averaging 6 runs a game. Little did we know that their pitcher’s paradise has played as a hitters haven so far in 2007.

Ever since Comerica Park opened in 2000 it has been cited as a pitcher’s park. While it did suppress run scoring a little, it’s always been possible for offenses to generate a decent batting average. Still, that spacious centerfield and deep left field have always suppressed homers. And when the left field fence was brought in it helped to even things out for the sluggers, but still it played to the pitcher’s advantage. Until this year.

Park Factors help to provide context to offensive events by comparing the offensive events in a home stadium to those on the road. I calculated the 2007 factors using the method described in the Bill James Handbook. In the case of homers, you add all the homers hit by the Tigers and their opponents in Comerica Park and dividing by the number of at-bats between the 2 teams. That number is then divided by the same calculation for when the Tigers are on the road and playing in their opponents parks and the result is multiplied by 100. A value of 110 would mean that it is 10% easier to achieve the feat at home, where a figure below 100 means that the park suppresses the event.

The table below shows the Comerica Park park factor for 2007, as well as the 2004-2006 seasons. The previous seasons were taken from the Bill James Handbook.

		2007	04-06
Runs		110	 95
Hits		101	102
Doubles		102	 86
Triples		114	155
Homers		117	 86

A couple things to note:

  • Comerica is widely regarded as a great doubles park, and that is largely unfounded. Even this year it is barely above neutral.
  • With batting average remaining pretty consistent, the increase in Comerica scoring has to be attributed to the increase in homers, and to a lesser extent doubles.
  • Triples are down, but they are a rare enough occurrence and it is early enough in the season that 2 or 3 triples could really swing this. I have full confidence that Comerica Park and Triplesville will still produce plenty of 3 baggers.
  • Related to triples, Curtis Granderson has single handedly impacted this metric with 10 of his 12 triples coming on the road.

I don’t mean to diminish the quality of the offense by attributing it to Comerica Park. The team is still hitting 289/349/472 on the road so the offense is just flat out good. We’re still barely more than a third of the way through the season, so it remains to be seen how this will play out. But for a park that has always played big in the past, it sure is playing small now.

2007 Season, Injuries, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 6/10/07

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Norfolk 0 Toledo 1 (8th inning in progress)
With The Sopranos about to start, I’m cheating and writing this one up before it ends. But really, you’re just wondering how Kenny Rogers did anyways. Rogers went 3 2/3 and allowed 3 hits, no runs, no walks, and fanned 2. Two of the hits were singles, and the other was a double. So as long as he feels okay tomorrow, he’ll likely make his next start at West Michigan this weekend. Chris Shelton had 2 doubles for the offense.

New Hampshire 5 Erie 13
Clete Thomas picked up 3 hits and Andres Torres doubled and tripled. Kody Kirkland continued his solid hitting with 2 more doubles today. Jon Connolly allowed 4 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks over 5 1/3 innings with 7 K’s.

Lakeland 5 Sarasota 11 7th inning in progress
Again, invoking The Sopranos rule here. Wilkin Ramirez knocked his 6th homer and added another hit. Lucas French was rocked for 7 runs on 3 homers in 5 1/3 innings. Paul Hammond allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, and retired nobody.

West Michigan 2 Dayton 3 11 innings
Only 5 singles for the Whitecaps offense today. Brennan Boesch had one of them plus 3 walks. Eleazar Aponte allowed 2 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks and 8 K’s over 6 innings.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 62: Mets at Tigers

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PREGAME: The Tigers will try and take the series today on the strength of Andrew Miller’s left arm. Last year’s first round draft choice will be making his second Major League start. Since his debut he’s been working on incorporating a change-up into the mix. He had it in his arsenal against St. Louis, but only threw it one time.

The Tigers will be opposed by a guy with a little more experience in Tom Glavine. Glavine is the kind of guy that can give an aggressive team like the Tigers fits. He only strikes out 4.5 per 9 innings, but doesn’t walk many and induces lots of weak contact.

Game Time 1:05pm

POSTGAME: I was at a birthday party this afternoon, and just got done watching the game. Fifteen runs will cure a lot of ills, and for the second weekend in a row the Tigers closed out a series strong against a division leader.

  • Andrew Miller was solid. Not spectacular, not dominating, but definitely solid. I didn’t chart every pitch, but I only noticed one change-up, and that was to Wright in the first inning. Still, with his slider and some command of the fastball it will take him a long ways. He also showed quite a bit when pitching with adversity, and didn’t seem to rattle. That’s what I found most encouraging.
  • Tim McCllelland just called a pitch a strike. Seriously, why is he allowed to do this? Is it so he gets extra attention?
  • I had serious short term concerns when today’s 4-5 punch in the order became Marcus Thames and Omar Infante. Not to take anything away from either player, but they pale in comparison to Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. Turned out to be not so much of an issue.
  • I still have longer term concerns with the health of those 2. Fortunately Maggs doesn’t sound too serious and was more precautionary. Guillen on the other hand? Hamstring spasm? I just don’t know. With the groin and now the hamstring these lingering type injuries are sure to take their toll.
  • Even though Thames final line wasn’t impressive, anyone notice him drive that ball to right center? And against Texas he shot the hole between first and second. Thames is going the other way, which should only help him.
  • Speaking of going the other way, Gary Sheffield made his first journey to Triplesville. He’s still swinging just as hard, but it seems much less pull intensive than earlier in the season. Just check out his 2 opposite field shots in Texas as further proof.
  • And with Sheff on 3rd after the triple, Rod Allen finally got his wish with the squeeze. And Rod even called it to. I know Rod calling the squeeze isn’t rare, but I’m glad he got it right this time.
  • And while it was an excellent bunt by Infante, how did he not get to 2nd? The Tigers have been racking up baserunning miscues at an alarming rate lately. Pudge didn’t know the number of outs and failed to score from second today. And in Texas there were a couple instances where guys didn’t score from 2nd on balls hit deep to right. I feel bad complaining about this offense, but I just want to see them get all the runs they deserve.
  • Oh Jason Grilli. You had been looking so good. And then some hits, and then over throwing, and then the wildness, and then the grooving of pitches. Shake it off Jason.
  • And Fernando. This is 4 straight appearances in which you’ve given up a run. Consistent yes. Good, no. Rodney is the key to the bullpen right now, and really until Joel Zumaya can come back. And a run a game isn’t going to cut it.
  • And those birds, I don’t know. I heard some theory on the radio about moths recently hatching and the seagulls eating moths. I don’t know if it’s true, but I’ve had a number of moths in my yard this weekend.
2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 6/9/07

Norfolk 2 Toledo 3 (11 innings)
Ryan Raburn was a triple short of the cycle and Kevin Hooper added 3 hits. Jordan Tata pitched 5 shut out innings allowing 4 hits and 3 walks with 2 K’s.

New Hampshire 7 Erie 2 (10 innings)
Mike Hollimon doubled twice and is now hitting 261/379/435 on the season. Kody Kirkland added a couple of walks. Jeff Gerbe was solid in his AA debut with 2 runs allowed in 6 innings on 6 hits, 1 walk, and 4 K’s. Danny Zell and Matt Rusch combined to surrender 5 runs in the 10th inning.

Lakeland 3 Brevard County 5
Cameron Maybin picked up 2 hits and Wil Rhymes added a double. The Flying Tigers had 7 stolen bases. Burke Badenhop allowed 2 runs in 6 1/3 innings with 1 walk and 6 K’s.

West Michigan 4 Dayton 2
Chris Cody allowed 2 runs, 1 earned, over 7 innings. With all the pitching shuffles in the last week, I’m really surprised that Chris Cody wasn’t moved up a level. He has a 1.72 ERA and 83 K’s against 15 walks in 83 2/3 innings. Deik Scram had a single and 2 doubles. Brennan Boesch homered an singled.

West Michigan 8 Dayton 3
Deik Scram picked up 2 hits and a walk and is now hitting 345/423/473 on the season. Audy Ciriaco doubled and hit his 2nd homer of the season. Josh Rainwater went 6 innings and allowed 3 runs, 1 earned, on 5 hits, 4 walks,and 4 K’s.

2007 Season, Injuries, Minors

Rogers to make rehab start on Sunday

Kenny Rogers will make a rehab start for the Toledo Mud Hens on Sunday. This has been suspected for a few days, but it became official this afternoon. It’s probably not coincidence at all that he’ll be making the start the same day that Andrew Miller is starting in Detroit. That way, provided success in his rehab outings, Rogers can slide into that spot if Nate Robertson isn’t ready to go. Of course with an off day on Monday things could still be juggled.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 61: Mets at Tigers

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PREGAME: The Tigers look to rebound after an uncharacteristic offensive funk. In fact, it was their first shut out of the season.

They’ll have their work cut out for them as they take on Oliver Perez. The 25 year old left hander is striking out nearly a batter an inning, and only walking a third that many. Plus, he’s gone 7 or more innings in 5 straight starts. The Tigers have stacked the lineup with righties with the exception of Sean Casey who is 11 for 24 lifetime off of Perez. Surprisingly, right handed batters have a lower batting average and the same on base percentage as lefties against Perez. However, they slug for about 50 points more than the left handed counterparts.

Jeremy Bonderman has been pitching like a man on a mission since coming off the DL. He’s allowed only 3 earned runs over 21 innings spanning 3 starts. He’s also received a ton of run support, though he didn’t need it. In those 3 games the Tigers have plated 35 runs.

Game Time 3:55

POSTGAME: The bats came through for Jeremy Bonderman again, and he and the bullpen needed every last run. Regardless, it was nice to see the offense back again. It was a tiny strike zone, and the Tigers did a good job taking advantage of that working 5 walks off of Perez and one off of Guillermo Mota.

  • One day after I mention that Carlos Guillen doesn’t look quite right, he responds with a 3 run first inning tater and a ground rule double.
  • I don’t know if it was Perez’s control problems, Magglio Ordonez’s eye, or if the Mets noticed that Guillen had been struggling and were thus more tentative with Maggs. In any case he came up with 3 walks – and tacked on one more double.
  • Jeremy Bonderman looked great for much of the game. The first inning run was a fluke, and he responded well. He was efficient and had the Mets off balance. That’s what made the 7th inning so surprising.
  • The middle guys in the bullpen were good enough. That’s about all I’ll say. Wil Ledezma did get some big outs when he absolutely had to.
  • Todd Jones was making his first save appearance since the debacle in Cleveland – and he looked terrific. He threw strikes, and even picked up 2 K’s. Jones actually induced 4 outs that inning.

This was a fun one, and even last night despite the results was a great game. It’s been a treat to watch these 2 teams these first 2 games.

Tigers 8 Mets 7

2007 Season

And yet another Sunday night game

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The Tigers are getting now shortage of national attention this year. They’ve now been added to the ESPN Sunday night game for July 1st as well. They’ll be the ESPN game in consecutive weeks with the June 24th game added earlier in the week. One way or another the folks at Bristol are determined to get Joe Morgan to realize that Justin Verlander’s first name isn’t Jason.

This is quite the deterrent to kids runs the bases with games not ending until 11pm.

In another scheduling note, Thursday’s game against the Brewers will be on WJBK Fox 2 instead of FSN.

2007 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap – 6/8/07

Syracuse 6 Toledo 5
Mike Hessman doubled and knocked his 18th homer. David Espinosa added 2 hits as well. Virgil Vasquez allowed 4 runs on 9 hits, 3 of which were homers, in 5 2/3 innings. He did fan 8. Roman Colon was touched for 2 runs on 3 hits, a walk, and 3 K’s over 2 1/3 innings.

New Hampshire 8 Erie 4
Kody Kirkland homered and walked and has really been doing well lately. Coming into tonight’s game he had lifted his season line to 253/332/457. Mike Hollimon had 4 hits, 2 were doubles, and drove in 2 runs. Dallas Trahern was knocked around for 12 hits and 8 runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Lakeland 2 Brevard County 6
Cameron Maybin and Justin Justice each had 2 hits. Matt O’Brien allowed 5 runs on 8 hits, 3 walks, and no strikeouts in 6 innings.

West Michigan 6 Dayton 8
Ryan Strieby was 3 for 3 with a walk. Gorkys Hernandez went 2 for 4. Duane Below allowed 6 runs on 9 hits, over 6 1/3 innings.

2007 Season, Injuries

Vance Wilson done for the year?

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Well, it’s a good thing that Mike Rabelo has been playing well, because it doesn’t look like Vance Wilson is coming back soon – if at all. He aggravated his arm injury while playing long toss on a rehab assignment. Wilson believes it may require season ending surgery.

Rabelo has been very solid both defensively and with the bat. For the season he’s hitting 286/305/357. He started the season 0 for 13, and has been hitting 372/378/465 since then.

2007 Season, Game Post

Game 60: Mets at Tigers

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PREGAME: While not a big proponent of interleague, I’ll admit that I’m looking forward to this series. The New York Mets are a half game behind the San Diego Padres for the best record in the National League. This is one year after they ran away with the league crown before losing to the Cardinals in the NLCS. They’re also in a bit of a funk right now dropping 4 in a row.

The series will feature the top two triples machines in Jose Reyes and Curtis Granderson who have combined for 20 on the season.

The Tigers will face Jorge Sosa tonight who has been impressive in his first 6 starts. He’s picked up a quality start in 4 of his turns, and was one out shy in a 5th.

On the mound for the Tigers will be Chad Durbin. Durbin has been quite effective, and pitched well enough against Cleveland to pick up a win – with some offensive help. One recent trend I’d like to see reversed is that in each of his last 2 games he has walked 3 while only fanning 1.

On a related note, I did a couple interviews with Mets bloggers. One at MetsBlog.com and one at MetsToday.com.

Game Time 7:05

POSTGAME: I was thinking about writing a post about how the Tigers have been playing a lot of really long games this year. How their own offense, and more walks and thus pitches by the staff have routinely had games running over 3 hours. And then tonight, I got the kids in bed at the regular time and it was the 7th inning stretch.

It doesn’t happen often, but the Tigers offense was completely stymied tonight. Jorge Sosa was excellent, and he had some nice leather behind him as well. Even nights when they don’t plate a lot of runs, the Tigers have still typically been getting a lot of baserunners, but that wasn’t the case tonight at all. There just wasn’t much going on. One guy who is really struggling is Carlos Guillen. I don’t know if it is the lingering effects of the groin injury or not, but he looks extremely uncomfortable at the plate and fanned 3 times tonight. His average is under .300, which is unfamiliar territory for Guillen.

Sadly the offensive struggles cost Chad Durbin a win on a night he certainly pitched well enough to deserve it. He attacked the strike zone, and only a couple balls were hit hard off of him. Unfortunately those couple both ended up in the rightfield grandstand. The guy pitched 8+ innings on only 84 pitches. No wonder the game flew by.

Mets 3 Tigers 0