PREGAME: It will be Nate Robertson and Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera isn’t on pace to walk over 100 batters for the first time in history. But he’s still walking 4 batters per nine innings. Cabrera typically posted above average K’s numbers in his career, but now he’s only fanning 5 per nine innings.
DET @ BAL, Saturday, July 19, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com
Game Time 7:05
POSTGAME: Worst loss of the year. Blown lead. Blown comeback. Blown call. Blown season.
PREGAME: The Tigers and Armando Galarraga take on the Orioles and Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie has a 3.49 ERA this year. None of his peripherals are exceptional, but he does 2.6 walks per 9. Lefties have a 90 point OPS advantage, but even then they’re only hitting 255/312/405 against Guthrie. He’s most hittable in the first inning so hopefully the Tigers can make some early noise.
Galarraga has pitched okay of late, but has had efficiency issues. He hasn’t recorded an out beyond the 6thinning since June 13th.
Guillen is still in Detroit and Renteria’s hamstring is still hurting. Renteria will play, and of course Guillen won’t. And Freddy Dolsi cut off all of Fernando Rodney’s hair. No word on how it will effect the tilt of his cap.
DET @ BAL, Friday, July 18, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com
Game Time 7:05
The question of the 5th starter has been answered – for now. Zach Miner will take the spot formerly occupied by Eddie Bonine and before him Dontrelle Willis. Miner had some struggles with control out of the pen this year. But in two “stretch-out” starts for Toledo he has posted a 12:2 strike out to walk ratio in 8.1 innings. I’m in favor of giving Miner a shot, but I think there will be a pretty quick switch if he starts running every count full and walking people.
There have been deadline extenstions, and votes to keep some parts, and votes to knock the whole thing down. But now the Daily Fungo points to a news release on Carl Levin’s web site that there is $4 million earmarked for Corktown preservation and redevelopment. Presumably this is the money that the Old Tiger Stadium Conservancy is hoping to obtain to save a portion of the stadium.
When the Tigers traded away their stud centerfield prospects middle infield became the organizational position of strength. Instead it’s become the organizational position of DL stays and ibuprofen. Edgar Renteria is battling a hamstring injury that he reagravated tonight.
Cale Iorg, the Tigers big time bonus pick from last year just hit the DL for Lakeland. His keystone partner Scott Sizemore has missed a big chunk of the season with a broken bone in his hand. Danny Worth, another draft pick from last year who has been a defensive whiz for Erie is now missing time. And high ceiling shortstop Audy Ciriaco just went on the DL for West Michigan.
And while they are health now, both Ramon Santiago and Mike Hollimon missed time this season due to separated shoulders.
It must be something they are putting in the water at second base.
Toledo 6 Pawtucket 15
Brent Clevlen homered twice and Derek Wathan hit a grand slam. But it was no match for the Big Papi led Pawtucket team. Virgil Vasquez was bludgeoned for 3 homers and 7 runs in 3.1 innings.
Erie 7 Akron 5
Deik Scram homered and added 2 singles. Casper Wells was 4 for 4 with a homer, 3 doubles, and a walk. Dusty Ryan also had 3 hits. Kody Kirkland homered and walked. Josh Rainwater allowed 5 runs on 12 hits in 4.2 innings.
St. Lucie 5 Lakeland 2
Dontrelle Willis started and went 3 innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits, 1 K, and NO WALKS. Ryan Strieby homered.
St. Lucie 3 Lakeland 5
Jeramy Laster homered and drove in two runs. Justin Justice tripled and walked. Jonah Nickerson fanned 5 in 5 innings and allowed 3 runs on 4 hits. Rob Weinhardt got a 1.1 inning save with 2 K’s.
West Michigan 7 Beloit 11
Brandon Douglas is enjoying his time in the Midwest League and he went 4 for 5 with a homer and 2 doubles. Phil Nardozzi allowed 7 runs and didn’t make it out of the 4th inning.
Brooklyn 4 Oneonta 5
Chris White went 3 for 4 with a double and 2 RBI. Brian Pounds tripled, singled, and walked. David Stokes allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings.
GCL Blue Jays 2 GCL Tigers 4
Alexis Espinoza hit his first stateside homer and added a single. Alden Carrithers also went deep and walked. Brandon Hamilton fanned 7 and allowed 2 runs in 5.2 innings. Nick Cassavechia pitched 2.1 innings allowing only a walk while striking out 5.
PREGAME: As the second half kicks off it will be Kenny Rogers taking on Garrett Olson. Olson has struggled in his last 2 starts surrendering 13 runs in 9 innings. He has a 5.65 ERA this year but is better at home.
Carlos Guillen is out of the lineup because he’s in Detroit. He’s with his wife who needed surgery due to complications from giving birth last week.
The Tigers send out the following lineup:
DET @ BAL, Thursday, July 17, 2008 Game Preview – Baseball-Reference.com
Game Time 7:05
Kenny Rogers wasn’t good today. The Orioles battered him with line drives all over the place. His saving grace was some horrendous baserunning. The Tigers managed to turn a 5-4-2 double play and a 7-4 double play. To cap it off they managed a 3-2 put out.
And while there was much consternation about the Tigers-O’s game being the only AL game today, the good news is they picked up a half game on both teams they are chasing in the division and they gained on EVERY team they’re chasing in the Wild Card race.
Edgar Renteria has had a half season that everybody would probably like to forget. The.259 batting average looks great compared to the .301 OBP and .326 slugging percentage. Couple this with the fact that Jair Jurrjens is pitching well and the Tigers are a long shot for the playoffs at this point, and the trade that brought Renteria here looks awful. Given all that, is there any hope left for Renteria? There may be.
One thing going for Renteria is that he has a 22.4% line drive rate. That’s right in line with his career number of 22.8%. The Hardball Times has a measure called PrOPS which is a predicted value for OPS based on batted ball characteristics and other offensive measures. JC Bradbury recently posted the top 3 PrOPS leaders for the first half by position. Renteria actually ranks third among AL shortstops (it’s a really bad year) with a PrOPS of .751. Even if he achieved that number it’s not All Star caliber, but it would qualify as productive.
The difference between Renteria’s actual OPS and PrOPS is the 5th greatest negative difference meaning he’s probably hitting into some bad luck.
So there is hope that Renteria is better in the second half, but what is a reasonable expectation for his final line even if he gets some breaks and manages to maintain his line drive rate? THT put together a spreadsheet that combines Marcel projections with season to date performance to project a final line. Luckily for me, someone else has already run Renteria’s numbers.
His projection for the remainder of the season is 282/342/402 which would be a pretty dramatic improvement. But his horrendous start means that if he achieves that line over the balance of the season, that still leaves him with a .680 OPS when all is said and done.
In addition, despite the career level line drive rate, there are some other red flags (as if we needed more). His walk rate of 6.7% is his lowest since the 6.2% he posted in 2004 and significantly below his 8.2% career rate. The drop in walks is probably in part due to a tendency to chase more pitches. He’s swinging at 27.86% of pitches outside the strike zone. In past years his number has been closer to 20%.
Renteria should be better in the second half. He was pretty awful in the first half. He chased too many pitches, and it was probably compounded by some bad luck. It’s hard to imagine Renteria or the trade looking much worse in the second half. Of course a nice little surge by Edgar and the team that leaves them in the playoffs and everyone feels a little better.
PCL 6 INT 2
The Tigers sent a few reps to the AAA All Star game with not so good results. Mike Hessman went 0 for 4. Brent Clevlen managed a single and a stole base. But Blaine Neal allowed all 6 runs in the 9th inning.
South 3 North 5
Ryan Roberson represented with a homered and added a second RBI. Dusty Ryan went 0 for 2 and Danny Christensen allowed a run in 2 innings.
Lakeland- PPD
West Michigan 2 Beloit 5 (in progress)
Brandon Douglas, making his Whitecap debut in place of the injured Audy Ciriaco, picked up 2 hits. Kody Kaiser homered. Thad Weber allowed 5 runs in 3.2 innings.
Brooklyn 1 Oneonta 4
Josh Workman went 2 for 4. Darwin De Leon allowed 1 run on 5 hits, 1 walk, and 2 K’s in 5 innings. Aaron Fuhrman pitched 3 shut out innings allowing 4 hits and fanning 3.
GCL Yankees 4 GCL Tigers 2
Luis Palacios homered and drove in 2. Jordan Lennerton went 2 for 3. And there was a Luis Marte sighting. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits with no walks and 5 K’s in 5 innings.
GCL Tigers 3 GCL Yankees 1
Adam Frost homered. Chao Ting Tang singled and walked. Jordan Tata went 6 innings and he allowed 1 run on 5 hits and 3 walks. That’s some progress.
It’s a bum deal. You hit your first big league homer and get sent to the minors. Clete Thomas was the outfielder optioned to Toledo to make room for Magglio Ordonez. So Matt Joyce will stick around and try to defend his AL Player of the Week honors.
It’s a free for all on All Star day. I won’t post a game thread for tonight’s All Star game so feel free to use this space. Other possible topics for discussion but feel free to deviate:
Toledo DNP
Altoona 2 Erie 1
Dusty Ryan and Deik Scran each doubled. Eddie Bonine had an unremarkable start allowing 4 hits and 2 walks in 3.2 innings. I’m not sure why it was such a short outing.
UPDATE 1: Bonine left early after being hit by a line drive. He expects to be fine. He hadn’t allowed any runs prior to taking one on the shin.
Lakeland 0 Palm Beach 1
Justin Justice had the Lakeland hit. Guillermo Moscoso allowed 1 run on 5 hits and 4 walks with 6 K’s in 6 innings. Zach Simons fanned 3 in 2 innings.
Peoria 2 West Michigan 10
Magglio Ordonez made a rehab start and singled in 4 at-bats. Ronnie Bourquin had 3 hits. Cory Middleton was a triple short of the cycle. Jordan Newton doubled and homered. Jon Kibler allowed 1 run in 7 innings and fanned 4. Scott Green allowed a run on 2 hits with 1 K in 2 innings.
UPDATE 2: Video from Maggs rehab assignment from mlive.
| Ordonez rehabs with Whitecaps, eyes return to Tigers |
Oneonta 3 Williamsport 4
Brandon Douglas had 2 hits and a walk. Wade Lamont doubled and singled. Trevor Feeny allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in 4 innings. Anthony Shawler pitched 2 scoreless innings.
Oneonta 0 Williamsport 1 (in progess)
Bryan Pounds had a hit. Matt Hoffman has allowed 1 run through 4 innings with 3 K’s.
GCL Tigers 5 GCL Braves 4
Alden Carrithers went 2 for 3 with a walk. Londell Taylor was 0 for 3 but scored 3 times. Jade Todd allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in 3.2 innings.
With the All Star break upon us, now’s a good time to deviate a little from the day to day game post-reaction loop. Over the next 3 days there will be a different discussion topic each day. Today we start with building the ideal pitching coach.
Chuck Hernandez caught a lot of heat early in the year. That criticism has quieted somewhat with the staff posting a 3.95 ERA since May 13th. But this discussion is less about the merits of Chuck Hernandez and more along the lines of role playing. You’re the manager/general manager. What are you looking for in a coach?
Some things to consider:
Finally, once you’ve selected someone, how do you evaluate whether they are doing a good job? How do you decide how much credit/blame is due to the coach and those he has to work with?
I don’t mean this to be a Chuck Hernandez bash (or love) fest. But feel free to cite examples of what you like or don’t like about Hernandez or any other pitching coach to help explain your preferences. And if there are any other qualities or traits you’d look for, feel free to include those as well.
Most of the time when you read the beat reporters game stories and quotes, you get pretty much the same thing. But every once in awhile, you’ll get some pretty different takes. Take for example the conversation that Dontrelle Willis had with reporters yesterday.
In the mlb.com article the focus is on Dontrelle’s attitude and the minor league process. Willis says all the right things, accepting responsibility and all that stuff you like to hear:
“Not at all. You definitely don’t think about the money you’re making when you’re walking guys,” Willis said. “I don’t think that was the case at all.”
…
Willis said the demotion to Class A hasn’t been tough. He called it “necessary,” and said it has not affected his confidence. The lefty appeared humble, not bitter or angry.
“I’m accountable for everything,” Willis said. “I’m just not throwing the ball how I want to. But that doesn’t mean I don’t want to play baseball anymore. I still love the game. It’s just making an adjustment. Sometimes you work hard, but you have bad habits.”
The Tigers have a plan in place to fix those bad habits. Willis has a plan to pitch in Detroit again this season.
“You have to be a man and understand that everybody wants to be a .900 hitter and everybody wants to be undefeated, but that’s not the case,” he said. “You continue to work hard and continue to have fun and, in the end, you’ll be happy with what you’ve done.”
In the Free Press article the emphasis is on Willis drastically changing his wind-up.
Willis acknowledged during a 10-minute session with reporters Saturday that he is currently attempting to change his mechanics through work with the organization’s coaches. He did not provide specifics of what the new delivery looks like.
I can’t imagine that Willis will make huge changes in his mechanics, at least not changes that will be really evident to the layman. The initial coiling might not be as dramatic, and the kick might not be as high, but I still believe it will be the same general concept.