Category Archives: 2008 Season

2008 Season, Minors, Roster Management, Statistics

Junkballing: Cuts like a knife

With spring training winding down, things are getting ironed out throughout the organization. For some players their dreams may be coming true, while others receive a sobering wake-up call.

Minor issues

My blogging brethren has done the heavy lifting on this, but there are a number of cuts and roster machinations taking place. (As an aside it’s amazing to me the number of sources to turn to for information on the Tigers minor leagues. And all of these blogs are well informed and authored by logical, thoughtful folks. Tremendous resources one and all) The Lakeland Flying Tigers blog I believe was the first to report that Jeff Frazier, the player the Tigers sent to Seattle for Yorman Bazardo, is now back in the organization. Detroit Tigers Thoughts and Take 75 North both examine the Erie and Toledo roster implications of the signing, as well as the additional cuts that came down today (Jason Perry, Colin Mahoney, Eleazar Aponte, Chris Homer, Chris Maples among others).

DTT also notes that Randor Bierd, the reliever the Tigers lost in the Rule 5 Draft, has made the Orioles roster.

Also of note, Mike Hessman was outrighted to Toledo today. By my count, the Tigers only have 35 players on their 40 man roster meaning they have quite a bit of flexibility going into the season – and few high level prospects ready to contribute.

What a Fien

LFT Blog is also hearing that Casey Fien has made the roster. While Fien has made an impression on Leyland, this one would really surprise me. I’m not saying LFT is wrong, but it’s just surprising news. If he has made it, I’d assume it is at the expense of Aquilino Lopez. Lopez is only a minor league contract, so there are no implications for him not making the team. The other strong bullpen candidate is Yorman Bazardo who stands a high likelihood of being claimed when the club would have to place him through waivers to remove him from the 40 man roster.

In case Fien makes the team, Detroit Tiger Tales has a profile already put together.

UPDATE: Moments after publishing this post, the Tigers announced that the last two bullpen spots would go to Lopez and Bazardo.

More links

  • View from the other side: Ian was interviewed by Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. It’s a great read and actually part of a 2-way interview as Ian interviewed Sam as well. Check out both interviews.
  • Changes coming to MLB Gameday: I love the Gameday app and it appears to be getting even better. The one piece missing from the pitch f/x element was pitch identification. The new version has it. Tonight’s Tigers game was played in Houston, and it used the new system. It looks like they’ve done a nice job, and there are still more changes to come.
  • Consolo passes: Long time Sparky Anderson assistant coach Billy Consolo passed away due to an apparent heart attack.
2008 Season, Roster Management, Spring Training

Clete Thomas needs a tailor

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One more cut took place today with outfield bench candidate Freddy Guzman being passed through waivers and outrighted to Erie. That leaves two players competing for the last bench spot (assuming that Ryan Raburn and Ramon Santiago make the team). Will it be back-up catcher Dane Sardinha or will Clete Thomas make the jump from AA Erie?

It definitely sounds like Thomas is the favorite to make the roster. At least if Jim Leyland suggesting that Thomas get a sport coat for traveling on the team plane is any indication.

Tiger Tales and Mack Avenue Tigers have already profiled Thomas.

To call him a long shot to make the team would have been generous at the start of camp. That’s not to say he wasn’t a prospect. Baseball Prospectus thought enough of him to run him through PECOTA which pegged him for a .239/.296/.356 line.

While the projection certainly isn’t overwhelming, I like the move. Thomas isn’t going to be relied upon to be an offensive force. He’s there to pack up centerfield for a couple weeks and perhaps be a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Thomas can handle both those duties because he sports some wheels and a very strong outfield arm. Plus, quite frankly I like the watching prospects make their debuts.

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management, Spring Training

Another wild day in Lakeland

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News has been flying out of the Tigers camp fast and furious lately. Today the main topics of discussion are Dontrelle Willis, Clete Thomas, and Tim Byrdak.

Dontrelle Willis

Willis is struggling. He’s having a heck of a time finding the plate. His problem last year was control, and that had to do with missing his spots. But right now he’s missing the strike zone with 4 more walks, a HBP, and a wild pitch in a miserable 3 inning outing.

I don’t put a lot of stock in spring training numbers, but something is wrong here. It’s at the point in the spring where pitchers have moved beyond “working on things” to a large extent. It is time to be concerned because Willis’s last two starts have been bad.

Ian speculated about an injury following Dontrelle’s last start. I sincerely hope he’s not trying to pitch through an injury all of 0 games into a 3 year contract. If it’s not an injury, it’s on Chuck Hernandez to figure out the problem.

Clete Thomas

It sounds as if Thomas may have played himself on to the roster, well the injury to Granderson was the catalyst of course. Jon Paul Morosi reports that Thomas has a shot at coming North. The 24 year old out of Auburn was the Tigers 6th round pick in 2005. Last year he posted a solid 280/359/405 line for Erie.

If he does make the roster it would be over Freddy Guzman which would be surprising. Guzman has had a good spring, is on the 40 man roster, and is out of options (though he’s not really a threat to be plucked off of waivers). Timo Perez who was in the mix was cut, along with Mike Hessman yesterday.

Tim Byrdak aftermath

We’ve already discussed the Byrdak release, but the beats have some more info. Danny Knobler has some quotes from Jim Leyland, including the fact that he’d like it a lot of if there was a second lefty.

My guess is that a trade happens in the next two days. I’m not sure for who, but I think that the Tigers would be parting ways with Ryan Raburn. It’s not a scenario I’m particularly fond of, but that’s my idle speculation.

Also, my initial speculation that something happened behind the scenes was probably too ominous. It could simply be that the Tigers gave him his outright release so that he’d be free to sign with any other team, in essence doing him a favor.

2008 Season, Roster Management

Tigers release Tim Byrdak

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The Tigers today announced that they have unconditionally released Tim Byrdak. This coming 12 hours after he walked 4 in a game against the Astros. Byrdak came into spring training as a lock for the bullpen, but pitched horribly.

I’m surprised by the outright release. I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him turn up on the DL, or to see him passed through waivers. The outright release makes me think something might have happened behind the scenes.

Byrdak was a journeyman who turned into a nice surprise for the Tigers when he fanned better than a batter an inning last year.

It appears there is another spot in the bullpen open. Will Bobby Seay be the only left hander? Clay Rapada is hurting so he isn’t an option. Or is this a precursor to a Scott Schoenweis trade (ugh).

2008 Season, Contracts, Former Tigers, Injuries, Spring Training

Junkballing: Almost too much to link to

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A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:

Injuries – left handed pitcher edition

Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?

Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.

Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.

Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.

Injury news – right handed pitching edition

Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.

Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection

Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.

In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.

Interviews

Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?

Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.

THE CONTRACT

I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)

“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”

The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.

Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.

Leftovers

Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.

And lastly, Brennan Boesch had some bathroom problems today.

2008 Season, Game Post, Spring Training

Easter Sunday Game Thread: Indians & Tigers

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PREGAME: Happy Easter to those of you who celebrate. And if you’re not one who partakes, warm Sunday wishes to you.

The Tigers will be taking on the Indians today from Joker Marchant Stadium and the game is on FSN Detroit. The Tigers will send out Yorman Bazardo as they try and assess his place on the roster.

Game Time 1:05

POSTGAME: I caught a good portion of the game today. That’s a first for me this spring. My impressions:

  • With the Granderson injury I’m guessing that the Renteria-Polanco-Sheffield-Ordonez-Cabrera-Guillen-Rodriguez-Jones-Inge deployed today will be the “normal” lineup.
  • At least it will be that way as long as Inge can handle center field. He did OK today, evening making a diving catch late in the game. But it was a ballsy play that given the timing of the game probably wasn’t well advised.
  • Yorman Bazardo looked quite impressive, mixing several pitches and commanding them well. He got Hafner in the first inning on a swinging strike out.
  • Really, all the pitchers looked good save for Tim Byrdak. And I can’t comment too much on Byrdak because I happened to miss his inning – I just saw the final results. As he continues to struggle I wonder if his spot is becoming more tenuous?
  • Man, does Miguel Cabrera have a cannon for an arm.
2008 Season, Injuries, Spring Training

Granderson to DL – Arghhh

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Remember when the Tigers made the Edgar Renteria trade and everyone was so happy? Meanwhile Joel Zumaya was being evaluated from having his shoulder crushed and the news he’d be out put a big damper on the euphoria. Well, now Curtis Granderson’s finger (middle no less) is sticking it to Tigers fans basking in the Miguel Cabrera glow.

Jason Beck reports that when he was hit by a pitch yesterday, it fractured his finger. This means a couple weeks in a splint and a couple weeks of missed time. And to make things even better, it’s his right hand which is kind of important for someone who throws right handed.

This could be that regular playing time that Inge was looking for. Or it could solidify Ryan Raburn’s spot on the team. Or it could open the door for Freddy Guzman.

Long term this doesn’t figure to be significant. Short term it is irritating to say the least.

2008 Season, Contracts

Reports: Tigers sign Cabrera to $153 million contract

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cabrera.jpg
credit Roger DeWitt

ESPN.com is reporting that Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers have agreed to an 8 year contract totaling $153.3 million. The deal is to be announced Monday pending a physical.

This is of course the biggest deal in franchise history, and it’s befitting a franchise caliber player. Locking Cabrera up long term was no doubt a priority from the moment THE TRADE was completed back in early December.

We’ll have to wait for the details of course, but I’d assume that this contract supplants the one year deal signed in January. Meaning that Cabrera will be donning the English D through 2015. So the Tigers lock up one of the premier hitters in the game for his age 25-32 seasons. What’s not to like?

If it is in fact replacing the existing deal, or essentially a 7 year extension on the $11.3 million he’s going to make this year, then it is $20 million per year from 2009 on. The chances of him reaching $20 million in 2009, the last year of arbitration, are small. Cabrera would probably be in line for something around $14-15 million next year. But even if they are paying more in ’09 it still looks to be a solid deal in aggregate.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system only projects out 7 years, but for each of those years Cabrera projects to be a $20 million a year player according to the BP metric MORP. Tom Tango’s salary chart reveals that an 8 year – $151 million contract implies 5 wins above replacement. BP sees Cabrera as more than 5.3 wins above replacement through 2014. I don’t trust BP’s defensive metrics though and would probably discount their WARP total accordingly.

Also, the BP method of WARP differs from the method that Tango employs. His methods can be found in the comments here. I tried to follow them (could have botched them as well) and pegged Cabrera between 4.5 to 5 wins above replacement. So depending on the methodology the numbers say the deal is either reasonable/slight overpay or quite fair.

The one thing that the pure WARP numbers don’t extrapolate is the impact of having a player with extraordinary superstar abilities. The wins and losses are accounted for, but not the good will built with the fan base for securing a player of that magnitude. Or the potential revenue associated with having a hall of fame quality hitter through the prime of his career.

Committing that many years and dollars to any player is a little scary (look what happened to Juan Gonzalez). But if you’re going to do it, then do it with a 25 year old player who already has 4 years of offensive excellence under his belt.

2008 Season, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Leyland and stomach have conversation

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Jim Leyland’s gut is telling him that a trade for bullpen help is on the horizon.

“I think there is a strong possibility that something could happen in the next few days,” Leyland said. “I think that’s a strong possibility. I don’t know if anything will happen. It’s kind of my gut telling me it’s going to happen, somehow, some way.”

It is that time of the year when teams try to get something for the out-of-option players who aren’t likely to make the club. Teams also have a good idea at this point of who will and won’t be ready for opening day.

That trade may or may not be for one Michael Wuertz.

The Freep and Sun Times can’t agree on the degree to which the Cubs might be interested in Inge and/or Thames.

As for Wuertz, he’s certainly an attractive idea with that coveted strikeout per inning ability. Of course he also walks a batter every other inning – but as I look at the arms being talked about for the Tigers that seems to be a common trend.

2008 Season, Injuries, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Fanning the Inge/Thames trade fires

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While the players had a day off today, I’m sure that the front office was continuing to work the phones. News of another injury in Dodgertown may be a catalyst for a Brandon Inge trade while more Marcus Thames rumors swirl.

I saw it first on Spot Starters that the Dodgers back up plan for Andy LaRoche at third base, Nomar Garciaparra, fractured his left hand. Inge could be a target for the Dodgers to play third base. Still, neither of the injured players are supposed to miss the entire season so why would the Dodgers take on 3 seasons when they could get a one season player like Joe Crede?

Meanwhile, via MetsBlog Jayson Stark reports that the Mets covet Thames. In exchange the Tigers are angling for Aaron Heilman. Heilman fanned three times as many as he walked last year. The 29 year old right hander is certainly a more attractive arm than others who had been linked to the Tigers but Stark doesn’t see the Mets moving him.

In the same piece Stark has this:

But an official of one club says the Tigers are “talking to every club out there just about every day.”

With Fernando Rodney out of action, Francisco Cruceta out of the country, Yorman Bazardo dealing with neck stiffness, and Todd Jones battling arm strength issues, what was a suspect bullpen is now bordering on terrifying.