Category Archives: 2008 Season

2008 Season, Roster Management

Why Ramon Santiago

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I don’t get it. It seems as if Ramon Santiago is a lock to make the roster but I can’t figure out a good reason why. Lynn Henning said that Santiago’s job is the safest of the bench candidates. Danny Knobler also has Santiago slotted into the bench as an automatic. But should it be a given? Shouldn’t Santiago’s spot be tenuous at best?

I don’t enjoy writing these types of posts. The posts where I spend a few hundred words talking about why a player shouldn’t be with the team. I’m the type who is usually rooting for people, and this is the opposite of my normal tone. But Santiago simply shouldn’t have a guaranteed job on a club of this caliber.

I’ve already looked at the roster crunch and when I drew up my bench it was pretty easy to leave Santiago in Toledo. The Tigers have a back up shortstop in Carlos Guillen, who would be perfectly fine there on a limited basis. They have a back-up second baseman in Ryan Raburn. They have a back up third baseman in Brandon Inge. Aside from designated sacrifice bunting duties I fail to see what Santiago brings to the table.

He is often referred to as a defensive whiz, and admittedly he does look silky smooth in the field with a plus arm. But looking at advanced defensive metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating, Santiago rates fairly poor. From 2003 to the All Star break last season Santiago was -23 runs per 150 games at second base and -28 runs per 150 games at shortstop. The data is far from conclusive because of Santiago’s limited playing time. Still, this is aggregated over several season so it can be dismissed either.

Offensively Santiago brings little other than the aforementioned bunting ability and some speed as a pinch runner. For his career Santiago is a 231/294/306 hitter which is good for an OPS+ of 63. For those unfamiliar with OPS+, 100 is an average player. Inge, who’s offensive struggles have been well documented is an 85 OPS+ for his career.

The role he would play on the team would be as a sub and defensive replacement. The are more capable subs already on the roster, and as a defensive replacement who would he be replacing. He wouldn’t go in for Polanco, and I don’t see him usurping Edgar Renteria in the late innings. And in the even rarer case where Miguel Cabrera is lifted in the late innings that spot has to go to Brandon Inge.

The biggest reason for keeping Santiago is that he is out of options. However, Santiago has passed through waivers on several occasions and I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t make it through again. I’m generally in favor of hording talent and playing the options game when everything else is equal (see Zach Miner getting the short option straw), but everything else isn’t equal this time. Ryan Raburn is the far superior player. His arm matches Santiago’s, and while he can’t play shortstop he still offers Leyland flexibility. And while I don’t expect Raburn to repeat his 304/340/507 line from last year, I think league average production is a reasonable assumption.

I know that Jim Leyland likes Santiago, but that hasn’t assured him a spot on the roster in the past. Santiago didn’t break camp with the team last year when Leyland chose the beleaguered Neifi Perez and Omar Infante in the spring. Even when Perez was suspended, it was Raburn who was promoted and not Santiago. Santiago didn’t get his call until late August when Guillen’s knees just couldn’t take shortstop on a daily basis. Santiago was also sent to Toledo in 2006. While Leyland may like Santiago, I don’t know that he likes him enough to hand him a spot when there are such clear upgrades available.

A trade of Marcus Thames or Brandon Inge would certainly open up a roster spot, but I’d view both moves as unlikely. Vance Wilson not being ready could also clear a spot, at least initially. But it wouldn’t shock me to see the Tigers actually take a 13th pitcher in that case due to the roster crunch in the pen, an area that is much more tenuous for the team than middle infield.

2008 Season, Fan Experience

Tigers Announce 2008 Broadcast Schedule

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The Tigers announced that 161 games will be broadcast this season, plus 4 spring training games. Detroit has been tabbed for 8 Saturday broadcasts on Fox and already 2 Sunday night games on ESPN (with the possibility of 3 more). The only game to not be telecast will be August 2nd against the Devil Rays.

The schedule is after the jump.

Continue reading Tigers Announce 2008 Broadcast Schedule →

2008 Season

The 2008 PECOTA’s are here

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Baseball Prospectus has released it’s 2008 player projection system known as PECOTA. What’s available at this point isn’t the full results of the system, just the weighted mean. PECOTA offers projections across a spectrum which are available on the player cards which will be forthcoming. What we have now is the middle.

PECOTA is premium content so I won’t post all the projections here (I recommend a BP premium subsciption, at least for the next month or buy the annual). Still, I will note some items.

Offense

It was a surprisingly gloomy picture on offense when I opened up the spreadsheet. I didn’t expect them to forecast another batting title for Magglio Ordonez or another quad 20 for Granderson, but I was a little surprised how down some of the projections were.

  • Curtis Granderson’s 2008 is forecast to be much more like his 2006 than his 2007, but they do like him for a .486 slugging percentage and they give him a very high upside score (20th highest for position players).
  • The system hates Jacque Jones and sees only a .699 OPS. Players expected to significantly outperform that are Marcus Thames, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Timo Perez.
  • But the Tigers do have some decent balance in the forecasts with 6 of the 9 members of the starting lineup projected to be at least 20 runs above replacement (and Edgar Renteria is at 18). Detroit is the only American League team that can claim that many.

Pitchers

The system likes the Tigers starters though.

  • Justin Verlander has Josh Beckett and Kevin Millwood as his top two comparables and is projected to headline the Tigers staff (and several other staffs as well).
  • PECOTA still sees big things for Jeremy Bonderman and he has the 22nd highest upside score bolstered by a 3:1 K:BB ratio.
  • The system likes Dontrelle Willis to rebound a little and be a league average pitcher with a 4.55 ERA. Not too shabby since that’s the highest projected ERA in the rotation.
  • One caveat on the above bullet is that PECOTA only sees Kenny Rogers pitching 57 innings. The list of pitchers in their mid 40’s throwing more than that is probably a pretty small number and his injury last year was probably also a large factor.
  • As for who might be eating those innings? PECOTA would go with Yorman Bazardo narrowly edging out Virgil Vasquez with either giving typical 5th starter type numbers.

If you want all the numbers, you’ll have to buy the book or a subscription. And keep in mind these are projections, not gospel. Players will over perform and under perform the numbers. But there is some science behind this stuff, and it’s a nice objective check compared to one’s gut – especially when it comes to your favorite players.

Take I75 North has some comments on the prospect projections.

2008 Season, AL Central, Injuries, Minors

A day of catch-up

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There was quite a bit of news that trickled out today so let’s roll through it.

Prospecting

It was a day of top 100 lists as both Kevin Goldstein (BP) and Keith Law released their lists. It used to be that looking at these lists was really depressing for Tigers fans. And then for a couple years it was really fun. And now, well let’s hope the big club keeps us from thinking about the minors too much.

Rick Porcello rated #11 on the Baseball Prospectus list. Keith Law isn’t as big of a fan, putting him at 22nd. Porcello was the lone Tigers farm hand on each list.

But at least it wasn’t because of the Tigers ineptitude. Former Tigers Cameron Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez appeared on both lists and Goldstein included Jair Jurrjens at number 86.

The injury bug

Injuries have plagued former prospect Tony Giarratano. At one time he was the Tigers top shortstop hope. A knee surgery and labrum surgery likely had sapped his defense – which was his strongest trait. A set back this spring ended his run as a Tiger. Detroit released him today.

It won’t effect the team too much, except for freeing up another roster spot (that’s 3 open spots now). Tony G had been passed by Cale Iorg, Danny Worth, and Mike Hollimon. I feel bad for Giarratano, but the truth is he probably shouldn’t have retained a spot on the roster this long.

D-Town baseball notes that keeping Giarratano cost the team Randor Bierd. T75 North tries to figure out how the middle infield situation might shake out.

Some leg soreness has kept Miguel Cabrera at DH on his Venezuelan team. Although a 10 for 22 playoff series seems to indicate it wasn’t effecting him too adversely. He won’t play in the championship round at the request of the Tigers.

Jones says Twins will be okay

I haven’t commented on the Santana deal yet, mostly because I’m waiting for it to be finalized (which I expect). But that didn’t stop Todd Jones. In his Sporting News column he’s confident that the Twins will be okay. And now he just wants C. C. Sabathia out of the division.

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Defense

Optimal Sub

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For the last few seasons, sabermetrician Tom Tango has conducted a defensive survey called The Fans Scouting Report. I’ve mentioned it in the past, and I’m sure that some of you participated. Essentially fans rate players on a variety of traits. I’m not going to rehash how the Tigers did because Lee has covered that already. I’m going to focus on Brandon Inge (because it’s always good for traffic and comment numbers) and how he can be expected to fare as he moves all over the diamond this summer.

When fans are instructed to fill out the survey, they are told to make their evaluations independent of position. For example don’t compare Curtis Granderson’s speed to that of other center fielders. Compare him to all baseball players. This is relevant because Tango has developed a system to weight the different traits based on their importance to a given position.

The traits that are evaluated are instincts, first step, speed, hands, release, throwing strength, and throwing accuracy. In the case of Inge he rated as follows:

Instincts: 83
First Step: 83
Speed: 68
Hands: 73
Release: 75
Arm Strength: 91
Throwing Accuracy: 62
Continue reading Optimal Sub →

2008 Season, Players

Inge to return

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Brandon Inge has come to terms, sort of, about losing his starting gig. He will report to camp with pitchers and catchers and is ready to do what ever it takes to get on the field.

In breaking his media silence Inge said he was disappointed. He also went on to explain his mindset a little bit

“I look at it this way. My absolute preference would be to stay in Detroit as the starting third baseman. My next preference would be to stay in Detroit, starting at any other position. Next on the list would be to start elsewhere at third base — and fourth would be to stay in Detroit as a bench guy.”

As for catching, Inge said, “I can still do it. I’ll do whatever helps this team win as many games as it can. That’s the hand I’ve been dealt and I have to make the best of it.

Inge lovers and Inge haters are likely to break down his statements (and there’s more than just the quote, click through for the rest) in the same polarizing way they break down much of what Inge does. I’ll do what I usually do and hang out right in the middle.

The Good

The guy just wants to play everyday. I can’t fault a guy for that attitude and it’s pretty much exactly what I’d hope for from a player. He also sounds very hungry, which could bode well if he can translate any of that into performance. He’s also advocating doing what he can to help the team win. He’s also got an eye towards being the starter in 2009 which could help the Tigers who don’t have a ready replacement.

The Bad

He still doesn’t seem to own any of his demotion and views it as something that happened to him. I have no problem with that attitude if he had replicated 2006 last year and they still went and got Cabrera. But Inge played his way out the starting role. Much like the Ted Williams comment, and the Babe Ruth comment, and the other statements made during his struggles this last year, he hasn’t recognized that his performance is part of the problem.

As for what it means for the team, this settles any ambiguity about what will happen if Vance Wilson isn’t ready. The Tigers also have a player they can stick all over the field and get some solid defense. It also gives Brandon a chance to re-establish some value for either a future starting gig or a possible mid season trade. This is pretty much what had to happen for both sides, and I’m glad it’s working out.

2008 Season, Roster Management

The Full Pen

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We’ve taken a look at how the Tigers may, or at least how we think (and by we I mean I and the people who agree with me) they may fill out their bench. The bench is one of the few areas of ambiguity in terms of the roster. The other area is the bullpen.

Unlike with the bench, there aren’t too many assumptions to clarify. The only tenet is that the pen will most likely have 7 pitchers and I don’t think that is really up for too much debate. The only way I see that deviating, and even then it’s not very likely, is if Vance Wilson is injured and Brandon Inge serves as the super-sub and back-up catcher and Leyland carries 8 bullpen arms.

Here’s a quick stratification of the options:

Sure Things: Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney.
Not quite sure things but pretty likely: Bobby Seay and Tim Byrdak
Everyone else: Danny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo, Francisco Cruceta, Jason Grilli, Matt Mantei, Macay McBride, Zach Miner, Clay Rapada, Jordan Tata
Maybe in August: Joel Zumaya

The sure things aren’t really worth discussing, at least not now. And while the nomenclature of “sure thing” and Todd Jones may be tough to swallow, he is a lock in terms of his roster status. Byrdak and Seay would probably have to pitch very poorly or very injured this spring to not make the team. Both lefties had solid campaigns last year and Leyland likes carrying 2 southpaw options.

As for everyone else, we’ll go in alphabetical order. Looking at the circumstances, option status will likely to be the driving factor in how the last 3 members are chosen. Eddie has done an excellent job writing up an Options tutorial as well as looking at what those implications could be for the Tigers.
Continue reading The Full Pen →

2008 Season, Minors

Tigers announce 2008 NRI’s

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The Tigers today announced 21 non-roster invites. These are players in the organization who aren’t on the 40 man roster, but will be in the big league camp during Spring Training. They are:

  • Francis Beltran
  • Joe Bowen
  • Michael Hollimon
  • Matt Joyce
  • Freddy Dolsi
  • Dusty Ryan
  • Jeff Larish
  • Timo Perez
  • Jeff Gerbe
  • Dane Sardinha
  • Scott Sizemore
  • Wilkin Ramirez
  • Chris Lambert
  • James Skelton
  • Danny Worth
  • Clete Thomas
  • Preston Larrison
  • Max St. Pierre
  • Aquilino Lopez
  • Nick Trzesniak
  • Matt Mantei

Per usual, there are quite a few catchers and I’m happy to see Skelton in that group. The Tigers will also be taking a look at 3 of their middle infield prospects in Scott Sizemore, Michael Hollimon, and Danny Worth. If it weren’t for the Inge situation I’d think that Hollimon would have a decent shot to beat out Ramon Santiago for the utility infielder role with a strong spring. But with the Tigers bench pretty full, I don’t expect Hollimon or anyone else to surprise.

2008 Season, Roster Management

Back-up plans

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The Tigers are fortunate to not have any positions really up in the air when they head to spring training. At least not for the starters. The bench on the other hand has a number of candidates competing for limited spots. Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Freddy Guzman, Mike Hessman, and Ramon Santiago are all gunning for what amounts to 3 bench positions. How will it shake out?

Let’s start with some assumptions. These could be wrong, or you may disagree, but this is where I’m starting from:

  • Brandon Inge will break camp with the team
  • Vance Wilson will not have to start the season on the DL
  • Marcus Thames doesn’t get traded

Those assumptions leave very little wiggle room. With a bench of only 4 players that leaves only one spot up in the air.

Position Starter Backup Backup
C Pudge Wilson Inge
1B Guillen Thames Cabrera
2B Polanco ???
3B Cabrera Inge
SS Renteria Guillen Inge??
LF Jones Thames Sheffield
CF Granderson Jones Inge
RF Ordonez Sheffield Thames

The only position where the Tigers don’t have an established player to back-up is second base. I thought about penciling Inge in there, but seeing as he has never played the position and he’ll be busy re-learning to catch, that position provides the least amount of comfort. With that in mind that last spot likely goes to either Ramon Santiago or Ryan Raburn.

The strengths and weaknesses of the bench candidates are below:

  • Marcus Thames: Thames has big time power, and other than 2007 has shown an ability to take a walk. He also has a new contract meaning that Thames is still in the team’s plans. The downside is that he plays the positions lowest on the defensive spectrum and he is another right handed bat. Still, Jacque Jones needs a platoon partner in left field and Thames would be the first choice.
  • Brandon Inge: Unlikely to be moved and both Inge and the team need him to re-establish his value. He becomes very important if Wilson isn’t available.
  • Ramon Santiago: A Jim Leyland favorite for his defense and a switch hitter. Or at least a batter who stands on both sides of the plate. Out of options, but probably not a big risk to be claimed on waivers either.
  • Ryan Raburn: Very versatile and has a better bat than you’ll typically see on the bench. But again, like the rest of the team he hits right handed. He has options which could work against him, though it probably shouldn’t.
  • Mike Hessman: Excellent defender at the corners, but yet another right handed bat. Leyland seemed to take a liking to him, but he has serious contact issues. Short of an injury to a corner player, I don’t see a way the Tigers could justify putting him on the 25 man roster.
  • Freddy Guzman: Guzman is out of options which could work to his advantage. Also to his advantage is that he’s a left handed hitter, and he’s fast. But he also plays outfield where the Tigers have some considerable depth already. He’s out of options though and has an outside shot of coming North, but he seems more like a September call up type of player.

If I’m responsible for the roster, I take Marcus Thames, Brandon Inge, Vance Wilson, and Ryan Raburn given the assumptions above. Raburn would most likely end up thirsting for at-bats as the majority would go to Inge. Still, that bench gives you a pretty solid combination of offensive pop and defensive flexibility. This would require passing Freddy Guzman and Ramon Santiago through waivers though. Santiago has cleared a number of times and I don’t see that being a problem. As for Guzman, I’m not sure. The Rangers could claim him back I suppose, but I don’t see that as being too big of a concern.

2008 Season, Minors

A treat for all the non Baseball America subscribers

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If you don’t subscribe to Baseball America, but want to find out what they said about the Tigers prospects, head over to the Freep. Beat writer Jon Paul Morosi compiled the list and today the Freep is running a chunk of the stuff that was premium content. This includes: mini scouting reports as well as a significant portion of the chat hosted by Morosi (part 1 and part 2).

As Take 75 North has advocated, this is really the meat of prospect lists. Finding out why the list was made the way it was. It’s also a chance for the average fan to learn the specifics on certain players much more than they can by looking at a stat line.

2008 Season, Contracts

Tigers sign Miguel Cabrera to one year deal

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The AP is reporting that the Tigers inked Miguel Cabrera to a 1 year $11.3 million deal.

The team is of course trying to sign him to a long term deal, and I wouldn’t view this as an indication there are any problems on that front. This is a matter of taking care of arbitration business (Dombrowski just doesn’t do arbitration). I’d venture a guess that the two sides are still working on a long term extension.

Bobby Seay is the only arbitration eligible player not yet signed, but I think that gets taken care of quickly.

UPDATE: Bobby Seay’s deal was announced today also. A one year contract, terms undisclosed.

The Tigers payroll has now officially topped the $130 million mark.

2008 Season, Minors

Baseball America’s 2008 Tigers Prospect List

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There isn’t an official top prospect list, but BA’s is kind of the standard. Today they announced the Tigers 2008 top 10

  1. Rick Porcello, rhp
  2. Cale Iorg, ss
  3. Scott Sizemore, 2b
  4. Michael Hollimon, 2b/ss
  5. Yorman Bazardo, rhp
  6. Jeff Larish, 1b
  7. Matt Joyce, of
  8. Danny Worth, ss
  9. Francisco Cruceta, rhp
  10. Brandon Hamilton, rhp

Rick Porcello is the clear cut stud, but after that things get cloudy. I’m surprised to see Cale Iorg rated so highly. While he may have all the tools, those tools haven’t really even been on display for several years. Plus a hamstring injury in the Hawaiian Winter League added to the lack of exposure to competitive baseball.I have a hard time rating him that highly, at least this year.

I’m also surprised to see Scott Sizemore rated number 3. While I like what Sizemore has done, the AFL is his only exposre to players in his age range.

The rest of the list is pretty much in line with who’d you would expect to see. As for the order, I don’t think there is a lot of separation so the composition is probably more important than the ranking.

There are write-ups on the top 10, but they are premium content. I will point out a couple of items though:

Bazardo

It would come as no surprise if he opened the season as Detroit’s fifth starter.

I’d be quite surprised given the rotation is set barring injury. I do like him as the 6th starter though and do expect him to make the team. (edit: in his chat, Morosi indicated that was written before the Willis trade)

Hollimon:

Second base would be his best position, but the Tigers have Placido Polanco under contract through 2009. Hollimon is athletic enough to play in the outfield, but Detroit has no plans to move him there this year in Triple-A.

Hadn’t heard him listed as a potential outfielder before.

Joyce:

Joyce has moved swiftly since signing in 2005, and he’ll move up to Triple-A this season. If all goes well, he’ll challenge for a big league job in 2009.

I’d like to see him at AAA, but with Timo Perez, Freddy Guzman, and Brent Clevlen the outfield appears full.
Worth:

Worth will return to Lakeland or Erie to begin 2008 and could move quickly in a system that lacks depth at shortstop in the upper minors.

Brent Dlugach, Tony Giarratano, and Hollimon figure to provide depth. Not that Dlugach should block anybody, but he’s still depth. Plus Tony G is still on the 40 man.