Category Archives: 2008 Season

2008 Season, Trades

Chris Shelton era ends

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Chris Shelton signs autographsChris Shelton is now a Texas Ranger. The Tigers continued their active winter by dealing Shelton, who was DFA’d last week, for centerfielder Freddy Guzman.

Guzman is a burner who led the PCL with 56 stolen bases last year. He’s about to turn 27 and he’s only amassed 37 big league games in his career, so take that for what it’s worth. He hits for no power, but has some on base skills with a .360 OBP on a .278 batting average in his minor league career.

As for Big Red, here’s hoping the change of scenery will benefit him. If he can recapture that opposite field power, he should do quite well with the Arlington jet stream pushing balls out to right.

Guzman is on the 40 man roster, but the Tigers have some wiggle room following “The Trade” because they had freed up 2 spots.

2008 Season

The 6 runs per game lineup

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A couple weeks ago D-Town Baseball took the Bill James projections for 2008 and crammed them into the Baseball Musings lineup optimizer. Well, now that the Tigers lineup is drool-worthy I figured it would be worth updating.

One of popular iteration of the lineup is:

  1. Granderson
  2. Polanco
  3. Cabrera
  4. Ordonez
  5. Sheffield
  6. Guillen
  7. Renteria
  8. Rodriguez
  9. Jones

Such a lineup would yield 5.831 runs per game. Tantalizing.

Even the worst ordering of players (Pudge leading off) would produce 5.601 runs per game. The best lineup you ask? That would be 5.970 runs per game. As for the configuration – and I know this would never happen – is:

  1. Sheffield
  2. Cabrera
  3. Polanco
  4. Granderson
  5. Ordonez
  6. Jones
  7. Guillen
  8. Rodriguez
  9. Renteria

Regardless it’s a substantial upgrade from what Eric had found earlier where the lineups ranged from 5.224 to 5.578 runs per game.

2008 Season, Contracts, Free Agents, Trade Rumors

Rogers, Rumors, and the Winter Meetings

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The Winter Meetings kicked off today. My fellow bloggers have already commented on how it will be a fairly quiet meetings for the Tigers. That’s what happens when you fill your biggest needs within a couple weeks of the end of the season.

Still, I don’t think the Tigers are done this offseason. While I don’t expect big moves from Detroit during the Winter Meetings, there is still work to be done. The Tigers still have a number of players to tender contracts to. There are currently only 16 members of the team who are signed, and likely to be on the 25 man roster. At least two of those players could be in for a substantial payday.

Curtis Granderson is entering his last year of indentured servitude. The Tigers could sign him for half a million and be done with it. However, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a 5 year deal which would buy him out of his arbitration years and first year of free agency. That would gain the team cost certainty through 2012 which also coincide with the years where he figures to be in his prime.
Continue reading Rogers, Rumors, and the Winter Meetings →

2008 Season, Contracts, Trades

Jones’n a day late

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The Tigers make 2 moves, and my internet connection flakes out that night. As such, I’ll just wrap the analysis into one post. Before getting into the individual evaluations I wanted to note that with the Todd Jones signing, the Tigers payroll has eclipsed the $100 million mark. I have it pegged at $102 right now (not counting the relief the Cubs are sending in the Jacque Jones deal.

Todd Jones

I can definitely see some merit in this signing. It’s a one year deal and at $7 million it is certainly palatable – even if it’s over market value. With a healthy Zumaya, this deal makes all kinds of sense. The veteran comes back for one more year to help transition to the young gun. Trouble is, we don’t know now if that gun will be firing bullets or blanks or anything.

Because of the uncertainty surrounding Zumaya, I feel the Tigers should have gone after Francisco Cordero. The Tigers very well may end up in a situation where they will be looking for a free agent closer next year anyways if Zumaya can’t comeback or isn’t ready to assume closing responsibilities. In a year that the Tigers were clearly in “go for it” mode, getting a top shelf closer would have fit the bill. If Zumaya does come back, you have a pretty solid bullpen – especially as Fernando Rodney becomes a free agent in 2010.

Bill James projects Cordero to throw 61 innings with a FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.15. Assuming a league average FIP of 4.43 that would make Cordero worth about one more win than Todd Jones. Jones projects to a 3.77 FIP.

Still, Cordero isn’t a sure thing. He had a bad year in 2006 when he blew 11 saves. It’s probably an anomaly, but it’s out there. Also, Cordero would have wanted to come to the Tigers. It isn’t the laughable proposition it was 3 years ago, but there are no guarantees.

There is value in the Tigers moving quickly to fill a need. Plus Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland have a penchant for the familiar making them comfortable with Todd Jones. As for the $7 million, the Tigers probably overpaid. Jones is about one win above replacement level. Assuming a win in the free agent market is worth $4.4 million then Jones salary should be about $4.8 million (you need to add the major league minimum to the base).

As long as Todd Jones can continue to keep his slugging against south of .400, and if he can limit the walks, the should be okay in 2008.

Jacque Jones for Omar Infante

My initial reaction to this trade was that I liked it, and that has held up over the last day. I like Infante, and at age 25 there is a still a chance he could be a productive major league player. But it was clear that isn’t wasn’t going to happen for him here in Detroit. Plus he’ll be in his second year of arbitration. Plus, the Tigers have a couple players who could fill the utility role for cheap. So even though Infante may have some value to some club, he didn’t have a lot of value to the Tigers. That they got a real major leaguer in return is a coup.

That major leaguer of course is Jacque Jones. The stuff to like about Jones is that he is a solid defender who can play all 3 outfield positions. But his arm has him better suited to center of left. He’s also left handed, which is helpful for the Tigers.

If the Tigers deploy him as part of a platoon, they have the makings of an acceptable offensive outfield. Jones against righties has hit 294/342/483. Meanwhile Marcus Thames against lefties is 263/333/512. For a total cost of $5 million or so a combined 280/335/490 line would fit nicely in this lineup.

The concern with Jones of course is that his slugging fell off the map last year when he only hit 5 homers. It was a Sean Casey-ish year, but it wasn’t nearly as conspicuous as he played a large chunk in centerfield. Whether it was an anomaly or aging remains to be seen. It’s also worth noting that Jones posted the best walk to strikeout ratio of his career last year. For what it’s worth James projects a 278/332/433 line but without facing lefties he has a chance to better that.

So I give the trade a thumbs up. Still, I’ll miss Infante’s salsa at-bat music this season.

Other stuff

  • Craig Monroe is now a Minnesota Twin. Best of luck to Craig. He always has mashed in the Metrodome where he’s hit 305/351/520 for his career so this could be a good fit.
  • The Tigers completed the Roman Colon trade by acquiring Danny Christensen from the Royals. Christensen is left handed and 24. The former appears to be his most dominant trait. He struggled in AA last year as he gave up a ton of hits, 23 of them for homers in 140 innings.
2008 Season, Fan Experience

Tigers announce ticket prices & schedule

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The Detroit Tigers today announced new ticket prices and their full schedule. There were numerous price increases, but the increases were modest with no seat raising by more than $2. Still, many of the better value seats, such as the outfield box in both the lower and upper deck as well as the right field grandstand were all effected.

Lower Level Seats
On-Deck Circle 65
Tiger Den $62*
Infield Box $42*
Terrace 35
Outfield Box $32*
RF Grandstand $22*
Pavilion 15
Bleachers $12*
Kaline’s Corner 10
Upper Level Seats
Club Seats $27*
Upper Box $22*
Upper Box RF $22*
Upper Box LF $22*
Mezzanine 15
Upper Reserved 12
Sykline 5
SRO $15+

* – reflects $2 increase

The price increases aren’t enough to make you think “hey they’re going after A-Rod.” If you figure that half of the seats were effected, and the Tigers draw 3 million fans again next year, that’s a net increase in Ilitch’s wallet of all of $3 million.

As for the schedule, here is the full 2008 version.

2008 Season, Contracts, Roster Management

Tigers on pace for club record payroll

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I did some long overdue updates to the payroll information. And already the Tigers have $90 million committed to next season, and that’s with only 15 players under contract.

My total is a tad under the $90 million mark, but I don’t have the data for Cameron Maybin’s contract which has to be in the vicinity of one million.

I’ve also tried to do my best to update the players’ status. When players are under club control I had to estimate when there arbitration years would kick in, so that is subject to change.

The Tigers have a number of players eligible for arbitration this year. Nate Robertson is a lock to be back, and at least one of Bobby Seay or Tim Byrdak (I’m thinking both) will be retained as well. I’m also inclined to believe the chances of the Tigers keeping Marcus Thames are pretty strong as well. So to resign those 4 players will probably require $10 million, give or take 2 million. At that point the club is at $100 million.

A veteran pitcher will be inked, either Kenny Rogers or someone else meaning the Tigers will commit another $8 million or so. And then there is the Todd Jones question, and whether or not the Tigers retain Jones, stay inside, or sign an established reliever on the open market. I think they’ll probably be spending $6 million or so to answer that question.

That raises the Tigers payroll over the $110 million mark. A utility infielder should be cheap, and relievers Joel Zumaya and Zach Miner should also be cheap. But Curtis Granderson is another matter. I still need to do some analysis on Grandy, but I think it is a given that it is in the Tigers best interest to lock him up for the next 5 years. While the big bump would come later in the contract, Granderson is still due to make double what he made last year. (also worth noting it would make Grandy the only player signed in 2012).

Aready the Tigers are poised to shatter their previous record payroll that was set this year. And that is without the club spending for a left fielder or left handed bat which is still a strong possibility.

As for when the free agent shopping starts, and arbitration decisions are made, we still have some time. The complete calendar of important dates is available from MLB.com.

The above spreadsheet is kept fairly up-to-date and can always be found on the Payroll page.

2008 Season

The Tigers offseason according to Baseball Prospectus

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Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus is going division by division looking at what teams will and should do with their offseasons.  The first division he did is the American League Central.

I won’t post everything because it is premium content, but I will do a synopsis and encourage you to become a subscriber.

In essence Silver classified the Tigers as a weak buy.  He also indicated that Dave Dombrowski will have one of the tougher offseasons coming up saying:

This team looks to me like an 85-86 win team if it just treads water,
and any team in that position that’s drawing three million fans or more per season is usually going to be a net acquirer of talent. The problem is that there aren’t that many ready-made free agent solutions at the positions where the Tigers need them, so some creativity is going to be required. When all is said and done, I think the Tigers will look at the Indians, Red Sox and Yankees, decide that they have to improve to catch up to that group, and make some or another kind of move.

Some names he indicates as targets include Eric Gagne, and then a Kerry Wood type pitcher and a Paul Byrd type pitcher.

Baseball Prospectus | Articles | Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, AL Central

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Contracts, Free Agents, Pitching

Breaking down the Dombrowski pow-wow

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Dave Dombrowski held court today in what was deemed an informal availability session and broached a number of topics.  Jason Beck was first to the web with the bullet points.  Definitely click through to Beck’s reporting, but I’ll weigh in on the bullets as well.

Pudge Rodriguez

No decision yet on Pudge and Dombrowski indicated the team might use their full allotment of time (10 days after the World Series) to make a decision. I just documented my thoughts on the situation and believe Pudge needs to be back next year. Whether that means picking up the option, or buying him out and inking him to a 2 year deal that pays him $7-8 million per – I’d be okay with both.

Todd Jones

Beck says:

They’ve expressed their interest in bringing Todd Jones back for next year, but while he would come back as a closer to start the year, they wouldn’t commit to keeping him there as the season went on.

I like the plan, and don’t want to see Jones blocking Zumaya. At the same time, if Jones is back, and can’t hold down the closer role that probably isn’t a good sign. Also, Jones is looking to see if Atlanta would be interested so he could be closer to home. I’ll be taking a deeper dive look at Jones coming up soon.

The rotation

Three spots are set and allocated to Verlander/Bonderman/Robertson. One spot will go to a veteran – like Kenny Rogers if he chooses to come back or another acquisition if he doesn’t- and the other spot will go to a kid to be determined. While trading Robertson would bring back some value, it also leaves a hole in the rotation and going into the season counting on more than one of Jurrjens/Miller/Bazardo to hold down a roster spot for a full year is a risky proposition. The thought of the three of them holding down one spot and then being available for injuries/tired arms is pretty appealing. Plus a one year deal for Rogers means the whole veteran presence without commiting to someone who might block a youngster when they are ready.

Left Field

Will look to get a left handed bat for the outfield that could be a starter, or a platoon partner for Marcus Thames. The ability to get a starter will probably be directly impacted on the cost of a shortstop, and whether or not they need to fill Kenny’s spot with a longer term contract that would consume more resources.

Jurrjens and Sheffield

Jurrjens will be spending the offseason with Gary Sheffield and working with Sheff’s trainer so that Jurrjens gains strength. I can only wonder how this came about. Did the club initiate it? Did Jurrjens initiate it? Was it Sheffield’s idea? For some reason this just strikes me as a fascinating conversation and a very interesting dynamic. A veteran slugging outfielder near the end of his career teaming up with a 21 year old rookie pitcher from Curacao to build strength. Good times.

Beck’s Blog: No extension for Leyland … yet

2008 Season, Players, Roster Management

To Pudge or not to Pudge

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One of the Tigers biggest decisions this off season will be whether or not to exercise Pudge Rodriguez’s $13 million option.  The net cost to the Tigers is $10 million because there is a $3 million buyout.  But be it $10 million or $13 million there is no way that Rodriguez will be “worth” what he is owed.  Still I think exercising the option is something the Tigers should do.

Rodriguez has caught over 2000 games, and is in a well expected decline phase of his career.  Next year he’ll be 36 and there’s no reason to believe things will be better.  His slugging percentage has declined each of the last 4 years and the .420 slugging he posted this year was the lowest since 1993.

But his slugging is the acceptable part of his offensive stat line.  For the second time in the last 3 years he finished with a sub .300 on base percentage.  He’s drawn a whopping 46 walks the last 3 years combined.

And then there is his defense.  Rodriguez is much heralded for his ability to shut down the running game, and it has been largely deserved up until this year.  However his caught stealing rate fell to 29% this year which was the lowest of his career.  He also had trouble blocking balls as he allowed .510 passed balls and wild pitches to get by him per game.

Okay, so I haven’t painted a compelling reason to bring him back.  But it really comes down to a matter of if not Pudge, then who?  The free agent class includes the likes of Jason Kendall and Michael Barrett.    Two of the bigger names are Paul Lo Duca and Jorge Posada, but both are the same age as Rodriguez which is a dangerous age for a catcher.

Rodriguez’s offensive numbers were bad, and I don’t really look for them to get better.  I’d expect a few more walks and a slightly better OBP next year, but I also expect the slugging to continue to drop.  But even with the decline he’s still better than Lo Duca who had a .690 OPS this year.

As for the defense, Rodriguez was still above average at throwing out baserunners and ranked 5th among all starting catchers.  While his kills were down, it was in a year when stolen base percentage reached an all time high of 74.6%.  Plus throw in the deterrent that his reputation is and he had the 4th fewest attempts per game against him.  And it was still superior to Lo Duca’s 19% or Posada’s 22%.

As for the passed balls and wild pitches, he does rank 3rd from the bottom.  He does rank ahead of Posada and he’s 2 spots behind A.J. Pierzynski who just received a 2 year extension that will pay him $6.25 million in 2009 and 2010. 

Out of all the options, Rodriguez’s might be the most palatable.  Upgrading the position is going to be difficult at best and could prove to be impossible.  I’m not going to say that Rodriguez won’t be overpaid if he comes back, but do you overpay for 1 year of Pudge or 3 to 4 years of another mediocre catcher?

Danny Knobler is saying that the Tigers are likely to turn down the option I don’t know if he is reporting or opining, but his information is usually pretty good.  If that’s the case I’d hope that the Tigers look to bring back Pudge for not one, but two more years at a discounted per year rate.

Tigers unlikely to bring back Pudge – MLive.com: Detroit Tigers
THT Catching – Major League Baseball Statistics

2008 Season, Players

Tigers need a shortstop

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The decision has been made, Carlos Guillen is moving to first base in 2008. Kind of a strange time to announce it and then there is this curious quote from Guillen:

Guillen recently said he’d only switch if he was assured that the Tigers were going to replace him with someone good — “a Gold Glover,” he said. But he said Friday, without naming names, “it’s going to be someone good, someone very good.”

So does this mean the Tigers have already identified a shortstop and worked out a trade in principle? Does it mean that this plan only goes through if the Tigers come through with someone very good?

If you’re holding your breath thinking that the Tigers have already worked out something with Alex Rodriguez, exhale. That would be tampering in a legal sense, and just plain silly given that Rodriguez is going to be busy with playoffs and what not.

Guillen went on record earlier saying he’d only move for a gold glove caliber shortstop, and indicated that he wouldn’t move for a Jack Wilson type player. But Leyland has smoothed things over with Guillen and he appears ready to make the move.

Tigers to switch Guillen to first base

UPDATE: Scratch all that weirdness talk up there. Danny Knobler ran the full quote, which makes a whole lot of sense and doesn’t lead bloggers to wild speculation:

“I know they’ll bring in a good (shortstop),” Guillen said. “I know it’s going to be a good one. I don’t know who it’s going to be, but I know it’s going to be a good one.”

2008 Season

Tigers 2008 Home Schedule

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This is kind of odd, but the Tigers have released the home portion of the schedule. I’m not sure why the away portion wouldn’t be released, because it must be know right? In any case, here’s what I see looking quickly:

  • The Tigers have Boston and New York in back to back series in early May.
  • There is a 2 game homestand which just seems like more MLB schedule making magic at work.
  • The homestand of the year might be a 10 gamer in June that features 4 against Cleveland and finishes with 3 against the LA Dodgers.
  • The other NL teams to come to town are the St. Louis Cardinals (for the 3rd year in a row) and the Colorado Rockies.
  • The last homestand of the year could be favorable with 3 against the Royals (although I think they will be better next year, like 3rd place maybe) and then 4 against the Devil Rays.
  • The only non-AL Central team to come to town twice is the LA-Anaheim-California Angels who come in April and September.
  • Between August 8th and September 10th the Tigers play 22 games at home. During that time span they only head on the road for what looks like one six game trip, and one three game trip.

The full home schedule after the jump…
UPDATE: I updated it to include road series at San Diego and Arizona
UPDATE 2: Now includes road series against the Royals and confirmed dates for San Francisco
UPDATE 3: White Sox and Rangers road trips included and August homestand against Toronto and Baltimore has been changed.
UPDATE 4: Added Mariners road trips
UPDATE 5: Added Blue Jays road trip
UPDATE 6: Added Devil Rays road trip
UPDATE 7: Added April road series against the Red Sox
UPDATE 8: Added Twins road trips
Continue reading Tigers 2008 Home Schedule →