Category Archives: 2009 Season

Sizemore leaves AFL game with injury

Latest Update: Sizemore has a fractured tibia and is on his way to Detroit

Scott Sizemore, the heir apparent at second base left today’s game in the first inning due to an injury. He was trying to turn a double play when a hard slide by Danny Espinosa caused both players to exit. What we know right now is that Sizemore’s injury is to his left leg but I hope to know more shortly.

Mark Anderson’s sources say it is an ankle with no confirmation on severity

On a brighter note Casper Wells hit a 2-2 Stephen Strasburg curve ball out to left center for a grand slam.

Much ado about Carlos Guillen

Jason Beck caught up with Carlos Guillen late last week and a maelstrom was the result. Guillen wasn’t happy with the way Jim Leyland handled things at the end of the year. Leyland explained his side. The two talked. Leyland says everything is fine. Guillen isn’t saying much else. Guillen was wrong to go public with this. He’s wrong about his own abilities. But he’s far from a selfish teammate.

Guillen was displeased with a couple aspects down the stretch. He was upset that as a left fielder he didn’t get regular playing time and he was upset about the shuffling of the lineups.

Continue reading Much ado about Carlos Guillen

Desert Update: Sizemore Shines

sizemoreThe Tigers representatives in the Arizona Fall League now have a week under their belts. Since the opener most have handled the challenge quite well so far with your likely 2010 second baseman Scott Sizemore leading the way.

Scott Sizemore

All he’s done is homer 3 times, double twice, and walk twice in 18 plate appearances. That’s good enough for a 375/400/1.063 slash line and prompting Kevin Goldstein to say “there isn’t really a glaring weakness in his game.”

Casper Wells

Mark Anderson of TigsTown thinks that a big fall could put Wells in the mix for the outfield rotation in 2010. So far he has a 444/450/889 line in 19 plate appearances. He has fanned 8 times though so it appears he’s either hitting the ball hard or not at all.

Cale Iorg

So far Iorg seems to be picking up his AFL season where his Erie season ended, and that’s not necessarily a good thing. He has a 182/182/250 line so far but I guess the good news would be that he’s only fanned 4 times. In Kevin Goldstein’s BP 10 Pack he listed this scout’s comment on Iorg:

I like the tools and what he does with the glove… but he just can’t hit.

Andrew Oliver

After getting knocked around a little bit in his first outing he bounced back nicely fanning 3 and walking 1 in his next outing which lasted 2 innings. He followed that up with a 1 inning stint that saw him allow 2 hits, but no damage while notching another strikeout.

Robbie Weinhardt

Weinhardt also improved with his second outing, but that was really the only way for him to go. But he still allowed 2 runs in 1.1 innings. Weinhardt has allowed 7 runs in 3 AFL innings on 9 hits and 3 walks. For someone who allowed just 8 earned runs in 30 AA innings this year this is certainly uncharacteristic.

Scot Drucker

Drucker isn’t really viewed as a prospect, but he has done well with this opportunity so far. He’s allowed just 1 run on 2 hits in 5 innings despite just striking out 2.

Quantifying Lloyd McClendon

It’s no secret that the Tigers offense was far from satisfying this year. It was the second year in a row that the offense seemed to perform below expectations, after having a huge season in 2007. Naturally suspicions and fingers start to point towards the hitting coach. Is the criticism of Lloyd McClendon justified?

McClendon and the Tigers offense seems to be following a similar trajectory to Chuck Hernandez and the pitching staff over the last 3 years. Hernandez came in 2006 and the Tigers had a dominant pitching attack. The staff regressed in 2007 and after an awful year in 2008 Hernandez was deemed the reason and he was let go.

McClendon arrived on the job in 2007 which saw the Tigers put up one of the top offenses in the league. The offense struggled in 2008 and in 2009 the offense was the culprit in too many losses and the Tigers were outscored despite being pretty good at run prevention. The offense was 10th in batting average and runs scored, and 9th in slugging and OBP and OPS.

Performance against expectations

Now one of the tough things about evaluating coaches from the outside is that there are considerable unknowns and there are rationalizations or explanations for most of what happens. What we can do is look at what a player was expected to do prior to the season. We can look player by player and see if there is a pattern of players over or underperforming expectations.

Continue reading Quantifying Lloyd McClendon

Quantifying Gerald Laird

Twins vs. Tigers


With Gerald Laird you know what you get. A player who is challenged offensively but who can lay down a bunt. He brings very little value offensively. He’s also a player with quick feet and a strong accurate arm behind the plate. The offensive part is easy to slap numbers on and assess. But while there has been quite a bit of advancement in defensive statistics, particularly around range, those range stats don’t really apply to catchers. Understanding just how much Laird contributed defensively beyond a caught stealing percentage had been kind of a mystery. Fortunately some work done at Driveline Mechanics has helped to translate a catcher’s defense into runs saved.

This methodology focuses on caught stealing, pitch blocking, and errors. A common belief is that there is little difference amongst catchers when it comes to game calling. Pitchers and catchers would probably tell you a different story, but being able to tease out tangible results from a greatly called game versus a poorly called one (as opposed to all the other variables in play like a pitcher’s stuff, the opposition, random variation, etc.) is well…difficult?

It’s no surprise that Laird flourishes underr this study. His caught stealing rate of 42% was outstanding in and of itself. That he saved 5 runs more than the next best catcher (Yadier Molina) is astounding. In total Laird was the top defensive catcher at 13.3 runs saved above average, a full half-win better than the next catcher.

Laird’s difficulties with the bat make him a liability at the plate and he was 16.9 runs below average with the bat (about 1.5 wins – or losses in this case) and with a positional adjustment Laird is about 1 win above a replacement level player. Add in his defense though and his value doubles to just over 2 wins above replacement.

The question for the Tigers for 2010 then is whether they look to improve offensive production at the catcher position or whether to look for improved production at other spots to be able to carry Laird’s glove in the lineup.

AFL Season kicks off

The Arizona Fall League started today. The Tigers had quite a few representatives in today’s effort, a game that saw the opposition hang 17 runs on the board.

I guess the bad news first, the Tigers had 3 pitchers in today’s game. Scot Drucker started and allowed a run in 2 innings. It was downhill from there. Andy Oliver drew a tough assignment for his first professional action and he was tagged for 4 runs due to 2 hits, including a homer, and 2 walks in his inning of work. Robbie Weinhardt got knocked around for 5 runs on 6 hits, a walk, a wild pitch, and a hit by pitch in 1.2 innings.

Offensively things were a little better. Scott Sizemore had an 0 for 4, but Casper Wells doubled and singled and Cale Iorg went 1 for 3.

Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events

UPDATE: Take 75 North weighs in on the game and Fire Jim Leyland looks at Oliver’s pitch f/x data.

The 9th Inning – 2009 Edition

Long time readers of this site remember a feature called the Inning Report. Reader Sam Hoff would break down the season into 18 game segments or “innings.” Why 18 game? Because there are 9 18 game segments in a season. Tuesday’s game against the Twins completed not only the season, but the 9th inning as well (this one had 19 games). Sam is still putting these together, but he’s posting them on his site this season. So click through to read The 9th Inning is Over with games through Tuesday.

One thing about this team, they were consistent. In 7 of the 9 inning segments the team won either 9 or 10 games. They managed to do this while being outscored in each of the last 5 innings.

The Tigers pitchers did their part in keeping runs off the board, even if they weren’t always dominant. Edwin Jackson was throttled and posted a 1.45 WHIP. Rick Porcello posted a 1.39 WHIP but had much different results. I’d guess that to be a function of ground ball hits not hurting has bad as fly ball hits.

With Polanco and Ordonez both posting OBPs above .400 down the stretch, Miguel Cabrera probably needed to have more than 14 RBI, although that’s not even a bad total for a 19 game stretch.

One thing that really jumped out was that Alex Avila only had 8 at-bats in this last segment and no extra base hits.

The Dombrowski Presser

Dave Dombrowski met with the press today and fielded questions for about an hour. Jaosn Beck, Tom Gage, and John Lowe had it covered. There is enough there to warrant about 6 posts worth of further explanation. But until that happens…

Miguel Cabrera

Dombrowski had a range of emotions about the situation, many were negative, but it wasn’t the first time he’s been in this situation in his 20 years as GM. It’s not surprising that he believes Cabrera will take the necessary steps. As for the question on whether he should have played Saturday night, that gets a little more gray. The response was:

“First of all, you have some legalities that are involved. You probably should know the rules when it comes to the Basic Agreement (the collective-bargaining agreement between the clubs and the players union).

“Secondly, we thought he was capable of going out there and playing.”

I admit to knowing nothing about the rules involved when a player has been drinking and is scheduled to play. I will say the answer was somewhat evasive in that they “thought” he was capable of playing. There was no comment on whether they thought they made the right decision.
Continue reading The Dombrowski Presser

What’s next at DTW

With the season over there are a few things I need  to say and I wanted to share my plans for the coming offseason:

  1. First things first I want to say thank you to everybody who read the site this year. Welcome to those of you who found it for the first time, we’ll have more stuff in the offseason (more on this in a minute) so don’t go to far. To my long time readers, I’m honored that you keep coming back and thank you for telling your friends about it.
  2. A special thank you to everybody who comments on the site, or posts articles on facebook, or tweets articles. It helps tremendously to build the community. It helps to keep things interesting and it makes it easier for me to a)step away a little bit because you all keep things fresh b)keep the site current because many of you post links to breaking news before I can get to the site c)makes it a hell of a lot of fun.
  3. I also want to say You’re Welcome to everybody who expresses their appreciation in the comments from last night. I was overwhelmed by your sentiments and I’m flattered to say that responding to each one would have put additional stress on an overtaxed server.
  4. As for donations, this part makes me feel a little weird. It’s something I don’t solicit because I’m frankly not that comfortable doing it. But many asked for a way to donate. I don’t want anyone to feel obligated because it certainly isn’t necessary and I hope nobody is offended by this. But if you were one of the ones asking, here is how to donate via Paypal.

What’s on deck?

Things will slow down a little bit without the daily rythym of the baseball regular season setting the pace. There probably won’t be daily posts but you’re likely to see something 4-5 days per week. Some posts will be short and others will be more involved analysis. Some of the things I’m planning for the offseason:

  • Covering the Arizona Fall League which is just about ready to get underway
  • Breaking down the team in a number of ways and looking at offense, defense, and pitching
  • An analysis of the hitters under Lloyd McClendon
  • Some pitch f/x work
  • Roster analysis, who should stay, who should go, who will be offered arbitration, who should be protected in the rule 5 draft
  • Interviews. I’m planning to speak to a few Tigers prospects. I’d like to work in some Q & A’s with others involved with the team as well.
  • Winter Meetings coverage. This year’s winter meetings are in Indianapolis, and while plans could certainly change, as of now I’m planning on being on hand for a couple of days.
  • Video chats maybe? I did a few of these last offseason and they were fun. Those might be coming back.
  • And of course if there are trades or big announcements they’ll be covered here one way or another.

So that’s what the very rough plan is. If you have specific studies you’d like me to do, let me know. I won’t make promises and if I don’t do one of your ideas please don’t take it personally. The reason I wouldn’t do the study is more likely my limitations (time, skill, availability of data, etc.) than the quality of the request.

In summary, keep coming back please. Keep commenting please. And use one of the subscribing options at the top of the page so you know when knew stuff is here.

Game 2009.163: Tigers at Twins postgame

Congratulations to the Minnesota Twins and their fans. You have to hand it to a team that finished the season 17-4 (and the Tigers were responsible for 3 of those 4 losses) without their second best player. They went out and took the division from the Tigers. They went down 3 runs early tonight and came back to take the lead. They were down in extra innings and tied it up. The Twins went out and won one of the best and most entertaining baseball games I’ve ever seen.

As for the Tigers, congratulations doesn’t really fit. But they did play a heck of a game against a red hot opponent in a hostile environment in the midst of a media blitz and distractions. Unfortunately they came up short on too many rallies tonight (and throughout the season) and like in 2006 the Tigers surrendered first place on the last day of the season.

We’ll discuss what comes next for the team in the weeks and months ahead. In the meantime a litany of thoughts on tonight’s game:

  • Rick Porcello was amazing. I don’t know where the 8 K’s came from but the way he pitched gave the Twins fits. If most voters hadn’t already cast their ballots there’s a decent chance he wins Rookie of the Year.
  • Miguel Cabrera quieted talk of focus and distraction with a double and a homer in his first 2 at-bats. He also did a nice job getting to 3rd base in the 12th inning on Don Kelly’s hit. I think saying he doesn’t care isn’t fair, even in light of what happened over the weekend.
  • Fernando Rodney pitched well and he wasn’t the reason they lost. In Leyland’s post game he said that Rodney asked for the ball that last inning. He completes the season with only 1 blown save but he was on the mound when a ground ball found its way between first and second.
  • Inge had a heck of a game with 2 spectacular diving plays and a big RBI double. He failed in 2 situations with runners on, but he certainly carried his weight tonight. Heck, he even should have had an RBI in the 12th when he was hit by a pitch and a call was missed.
  • Like Inge there were so many players that had ups and downs tonight. Granderson got doubled off in the 9th inning in a baserunning mistake and took a bad angle on the ball that got by Raburn. But Grandy also had 2 hits and made a diving play in centerfield.
  • Ryan Raburn lost the Cuddyer ball in the lights, but gunned a guy at the plate and also picked up a couple hits.
  • Gerald Laird however will think about this one for awhile. He struck out to end the 9th and the 12th. He didn’t get a ball out of the infield, he failed on a sacrifice bunt. He didn’t even get the pleasure of throwing out a runner. But I do think his presence prevented some steal attempts. As much as I wanted him pinch hit for, I still wanted him behind the plate.
  • So many plays to look back on, but the Magglio Ordonez line out to shortstop is still the killer. He ripped a ball off of Nathan and had nothing to show for it. Ugh.
  • And the other play was the grounder up the middle that ended up out of the reach of Polanco. We’re so used to Placido making plays all over the place. That the ball was out of his reach is something I still can’t believe.

The Tigers went 17-16 in September and October. For the season they finished as a .527 winning percentage team. I don’t know that constitutes a collapse. Yes, they had every chance to put the division away and they should take heat for that. But they didn’t tank in the 2nd half. The Twins went and took the division from them.

I will throw out one offseason prediction that I’d guess happens soon. My guess is that Lloyd McClendon will be relieved of his hitting coach duties. Not because of this game, but because of a season’s worth of offensive struggles. I don’t know if he’ll be fired or moved to another coaching position, but I think Lloyd will be gone.

Game 2009.163: Tigers at Twins

PREGAME: Of all the years for MLB to do away with their asinine coin-flipping scenario for deciding home field advantage for tiebreaker games. Of course if the Tigers could have managed 1 more win at some point they wouldn’t even be in this situation. But this situation isn’t so bad, the Tigers are still playing and they’ll be the only game around tomorrow afternoon.

It’s Rick Porcello and Scott Baker. This will be the second time in a week the Tigers will have a chance to clinch the AL Central against Baker. The Tigers certainly had their chances last Thursday with a bevy of baserunners and 4 Twins errors to go along with 6 walks issued by Twins pitchers. Unfortunately the offense only mustered 3 runs.

The Tigers have hit Baker this year. In the 2 previous starts they got him for 4 runs and 6 runs and Baker hasn’t lasted into the 6th inning in any of the 3 starts.

Porcello has faced the Twins 4 times this year and has quality starts in 3 of them. His worst start against them was a 6 run 4 inning effort in the dome. A week ago Tuesday he pitched the front end of the double header and he went 6.1 innings allowing just 1 run while scattering 7 hits and a walk.

For more on the game: