Category Archives: 2009 Season

Tigers 2009 WAR Projections – Pitchers

Earlier in the week I posted my wins above replacement projections for the Tigers 2009 lineup. Today I turn my attention to the men on the mound.

For the projections I used the Marcel 2009 FIP projection for pitcher ERA (available at Fangraphs). In terms of innings pitched, I used some judgment. I penciled in Justin Verlander for 200 innings, and every other slot in the rotation for 180. Feel free to disagree with this, I won’t mind. But I think we can agree that the success of the team will largely hinge on the staff’s ability to stay healthy.
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Tigers WAR Projections

It seems as if calculating wins above replacement, or WAR, has become the cool thing to do this offseason. We’ve delved into WAR here in the past when evaluating contracts. Now Fangraphs has made WAR available to the masses. Detroit Tiger Tales has already taken a look at the 08 Tigers numbers. And now a call to action from Beyond the Boxscore has inspired me to project the 09 team numbers.
Continue reading Tigers WAR Projections

Prices are dropping, but will it matter?

Buster Olney weighs in on how the economy is impacting team spending:

Throughout baseball, budgets are being downsized from week to week to reflect the latest read on the economy, and what you are about to see — once the smoke clears from the Sabathia and Burnett and Teixeira news conferences — is a stunning drop in salaries for the free agents, a time when solid veteran players might be fortunate to get one-year offers for $5 million to $8 million. General managers throughout the game are reporting, on background, that their payrolls are being locked down, cut down, slashed.

It’s a topic that I’ve speculated on (mostly in the video chats) as it relates to the Tigers. Before the global recession hammered the Big 3 and they had to go looking to the government for money, Dave Dombrowski said he was looking at a payroll in line with last year. But with a dip in attendance that could likely go beyond the slippage due to the team’s disappointing 2008, plus a potential loss of GM sponsorship money, the Tigers could be in a different mindset.

Did they save money on the Adam Everett, Gerald Laird, and Matt Treanor deals, or were they spending what they had to spend? Was Edwin Jackson acquired because $3 million is all they have to invest in the rotation?

With $105 million committed to 14 players, and a likely $9-10 million committed to Fernando Rodney, Marcus Thames, Gerald Laird, Edwin Jackson, and Bobby Seay, That leaves about $15-$20 million to cover Justin Verlander*, 4 guys earning the minimum, and an upgrade to the bullpen. Plus I don’t know if Renteria’s $3 million buyout counts against the total.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that as Olney points out, prices are dropping. And for those worried about the Tigers lack of moves in the bullpen, it isn’t a cause for concern yet. It’s still a buyers market with Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Juan Cruz available. Fuentes and Cruz are undesirable due to the cost of second round draft picks. But as a group there are 4 arms, 3 of which should be in the Tigers price range, and all of which would be an upgrade.

Now if the calendar flips to February, and the four aforementioned guys are packing bags for other destinations, then I’ll join you in being uneasy about a bullpen made up of last year’s incumbents, Casey Fien, and the draft class of 2008.

Winter Meetings – Heading to Day 2

With the Tigers being fairly active today, there won’t be a lot of speculation about those catcher and shortstop holes. But there still are items of interest on the relief pitching front. Here’s the buzz as I get ready to sign off for the night. This will be our day 2 rumor repository as well.

Chad Cordero will meet with 5 teams. The Tigers are one of them. I wonder if Cordero gets a big league deal from anyone or he chooses the best looking minor league contract.

Brandon Lyon, a favorite target of mine, will be meeting with the Royals along with Kyle Farnsworth.

As for the closer market, the Tigers are still connected to J.J. Putz and Kerry Wood. Their price could be heavily dictated by K-Rod who received an offer from the Mets that is expected to be 2 and 24 with a 3rd year option. Not quite the $75 million people were expecting heading into the offseason.

On that front, division rival Cleveland met with Kerry Wood’s people this evening and are still interested in Brian Fuentes and Trevor Hoffman.

I’ll post more as I hear it. As always I recommend checking out http://mlbtraderumors.com as well as Twitter for updates on the winter meetings.

UPDATE: 7:30 p.m. Kerry Wood is off the market and to the Indians. Damn. He wouldn’t have cost a draft pick or prospects. The Tigers continue to pursue J.J. Putz but I’d just assume not get into a prospect bidding war with the Brewers for a guy who is coming off an elbow injury.

Jason Beck continues to report Joe Beimel rumors. Let’s just say that Day 1 seems better than Day 2 so far.

Winter Meeting Eve Rumor Roundup

Are Larish and Thames on the trading block?
Are Larish and Thames on the trading block?
UPDATED 12.08.08 5:08 a.m.

Tomorrow is the start of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas and things are going to get crazy-stupid when it comes to rumors and people who saw people talking to people. It was at the winter meetings last year (a year ago last Thursday to be exact) when the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. It was a move that came out of nowhere, so you never know what will happen. With that in mind, here is a cautious look at Tigers related rumors before the meetings begin.
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They don’t care who my Tiger is anymore

News out of Comerica Park is that the Who’s Your Tiger campaign has come to an end. It had been 3 years and they probably got more mileage out of it than could have been expected. But I’ll kind of miss it. The campaign and the resurgence of the franchise went hand in hand. As the team became successful it was a way for fans to identify with Tigers and was pretty damn effective. Between Who’s Your Tiger, Hockeytown, and Going to Work, Detroit sports teams have done a nice job of latching on to their fans. Do you believe in now?

Other arbitration news

With the unfortunate news of the Tigers decision about Edgar Renteria and arbitration out of the way it’s probably worth looking at some potential Tigers targets and whether or not they were offered arbitration.

One potential target at closer who is a Type A is Trevor Hoffman. The Padres didn’t offer Hoffman arbitration which means no draft pick compensation and it certainly makes him more attractive. Another less likely Type A closer is Kerry Wood who also didn’t receive an arbitration offer from the Cubs. He is probably cost-prohibitive, but worth mentioning.

The Tigers have also been linked to Darren Oliver. However he is a Type A and the Angels did offer him arbitration meaning the Tigers would surrender their second round pick to sign him. That would certainly be more palatable had they picked up some extra draft picks along the way but I digress.

The always valuable MLBTradeRumors has been updating his list of free agents with arbitration status, so check back tomorrow for the complete run down.

Tigers Top 10 Prospects according to Baseball America

Rick Porcello - cr Roger DeWitt
Rick Porcello - cr Roger DeWitt

It’s another one of those rites of the offseason, the Baseball America top 10 list. The list itself is available to anyone, but for additional information (like scouting reports) you need to be a subscriber.

As for the list, here it is:

  1. Rick Porcello, rhp
  2. Ryan Perry, rhp
  3. Cale Iorg, ss
  4. Casey Crosby, lhp
  5. Jeff Larish, 1b/3b
  6. Wilkin Ramirez, of
  7. Scott Sizemore, 2b
  8. Cody Satterwhite, rhp
  9. Dusty Ryan, c
  10. Guillermo Moscoso, rhp

Continue reading Tigers Top 10 Prospects according to Baseball America

Tigers set 40 man roster

Today is the deadline for the Tigers to announce who would and wouldn’t be protected from the Rule 5 draft on the 40 man roster. Below is the roster, and highlighted are the 5 players who the Tigers just added: Alfredo Figaro, Casper Wells, Zach Simons, Guillermo Moscoso, and Wilkin Ramirez. That brings the total to 38.
Continue reading Tigers set 40 man roster

Catch-all post

I know there is a lot of interest in some of the rumors swirling around the Tigers (like Julio Lugo) and that people want to comment on signings that may or may not effect the Tigers  (Jeremy Affeldt).  While I don’t have a lot to say about these things (though I don’t want Lugo and Affeldt for 2 years at $4 million per is pretty attractive) I know that others do want to talk about it.  In an effort to keep the discussion on other research-y type posts centered on the topic of the post (this is a blog afterall and not a message board), please use this as your catch-all thread for rumors and signings.

Of course if anything related to the Tigers breaks, we’ll be sure to cover it in depth.

Tigers make some ticket price hikes

The Tigers are adjusting some prices, on some games. The following areas won’t see an increase to their base ticket prices: Outfield Box, Right Field Grandstand, Bleachers, Kaline’s Corner and the Upper Level. That comprises 70% of the capacity. The base price is the key here because the team will have premium pricing for 21 of the 81 games.

The variable pricing will apply to the three-game series with the Cubs and Red Sox, and Friday and Saturday games in June, July, and August, and Opening Day.

Basically it seems that the team is trying to make the majority of games affordable to a majority of the people while trying to get a little extra revenue on the premium seats. Given the economy any price hike isn’t going to be received well, but considering the increase in payroll that the team committed to last year and this year, this seems to be pretty minimal.

Those who get season tickets will still get discounts and be immune to variable pricing.

Individual game tickets will go on sale March 7th.

Dombrowski talks payroll and closer

Jon Paul Morosi is covering the GM meetings from California and he caught up with Dave Dombrowski. Among the nuggets Dombrowski spoke about the 2010 closer situation and the payroll.

On a closer for the year-after-next, Dombrowski believes the candidate is in house. Given the college-reliever heavy draft this summer, that isn’t surprising. Among Ryan Perry, Cody Satterwhite, and others (Casey Fien, Joel Zumaya, Freddy Dolsi) I’d hope that’s a safe bet. It also makes it unlikely, as Morosi points out, that the Tigers are going to go after a top shelf free agent closer who will command multiple years.

Dombrowski also revealed that the 2009 payroll would not see “a significant difference” from 2008. With the team already committed to spending a little over $100 million on 11 players, that means the Tigers have about $25 million left to find a shortstop, a catcher, resign Justin Verlander, bolster the bullpen and rotation, and fill in the rest of the spots with league-minimum players under club control (like Matt Joyce).

At GM meetings, Dombrowski says Tigers have in-house closing candidates for 2010 | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press