Detroit returns to Comerica for some home cooking with a 3 game series against the Chicago White Sox.  They likely will be fed a diet of cutters and changeups by Mark Buehrle, who faces Justin “Hop-Throw” Verlander.  Verlander was 2-0 vs the White Sox in 2010; Buehrle was also 2-0 vs Detroit in 2010.  May the best man win (and the best man’s initials are JV).

The Tigers catch the White Sox at a good time:  they have only won 2 of their last 10, and like the Tigers, have had all sorts of trouble generating offense, batting only .202 in that 10-game span.  And like Detroit, most of their offense has come from one player, Paul Konerko, who is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 15 RBI.

You might want to take the “under” on this one.

One big difference is that the White Sox don’t strike out as much as the Tigers:  111 to 133.  And it isn’t because they are more patient at the plate:  they only have 53 BB compared to Detroit’s 72, and have the lowest Pitch-Per-Plate-Appearance in the AL at 3.66 (Detroit is 2nd to Boston at 4.00). So the Sox will be up there taking their hacks.

Against Buehrle today discipline at the plate will be necessary.  Buehrle features an inside cutter and an outside changeup.  Apparently, the key to beating Buehrle is to lay off of the changeup, which lately he has had trouble getting in the strike zone, and then to look for the cutter.  There appears to be a direct correlation between the effectiveness of his cutter and the location of his changeup.

Today’s Player of the Pre-Game:  Magglio Ordonez

• Magglio career vs Buehrle:  .469 (15 – 32), 2 HR, 2 2B, 5 RBI
• He is also playing his former team
• He also needs 1 more double to become the first player to hit 100 at Comerica
• There you go Maggs, you couldn’t ask for a better set up

Today’s Jhonny-Phrotecting-Cabrera? lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Ryan Raburn 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez DH
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Jhonny Peralta SS
6. Brennan Boesch LF
7. Brandon Inge 3B
8. Alex Avila C
9. Casper Wells RF

Well, it’s the rubber match of the Mariners series as the Tigers bring their 1-6 record in games to decide a series to Safeco, before an off day and then a home stand.

We just got through the first inning of the season (18 games), and it wasn’t very good.  Pitching-wise, the Tigers were just awful, posting a 5.02 ERA, worse than every AL team other than Boston (5.58).  Their WHIP of 1.49 is worst in the AL, and they allowed 71 BBs, second worst in the AL.  Our bullpen is 12th in the league with an ERA of 5.47, and the starters are marginally better with an 11th best ERA of 4.81.

Incredibly, our hitting is in the middle of the pack with a .244 BA (8th), .703 OPS (9th) and 16 HR (7th).

With all of that, the boys are only 2 games under .500.  So there should be hope, right?  I expect the bullpen to get better, and Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver look primed to contribute sooner than later.

On the other hand, despite an AL-wide hitting slump, I do not see our bats getting much better unless someone in the farm can step up and contribute.  AJax has been exposed, Inge is Inge, and Maggs’ next XBH will double his 2011 total through 30+ ABs.  That’s right, Maggs is on pace for 270 ABs, and I think he’s being overused now.  Guillen should be an improvement at 2B, but there is still no timetable for his return.  VMart’s 1st trip to the DL is unlikely to be his last, and Peralta is regressing as a hitter.  Unless Raburn can turn into the above average hitter I think he is and we get some more help from below today, .500 baseball is going to be about right for this team.

Erik Bedard goes for the Mariners.  After sitting out all of 2010 recovering from shoulder surgery, Bedard has been hammered in his three 2011 starts to the tune of 13 ER in 13.2 IP and 1.97 WHIP.   Which sounds just like the type of pitching that has shut down the Tigers recently.

Porcello climbs the hill for the Tigers looking to follow-up on a strong start against Oakland last week.  In that effort he only lasted 6 IPs (103 pitches), but allowed just 1 ER on 7 hits and 1 walk.

Fun stat of the day – did you know that Austin Jackson is tied for fourth on the team with 1 HR? That’s one more than Maggs.

Today’s Peralta is protecting Cabrera? lineup:

1. AJax – CF
2. Raburn – 2B
3. Ordonez – DH
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Peralta – SS
6. Boesch – LF
7. Inge – 3B
8. Ghost – RF
9. OMirG I’m starting – C

The Tigers look to lock-up a series victory tonight against the Mariners, as Phil Coke takes on Doug Fister.

The not-so-hard throwing Doug Fister takes the mound for the Ms tonight.  Fister is in the majors because he throws a four seamer, a two seamer, a change, a curve and a slider.  Though none of them are particularly effective, when he locates them well he can win a few ball games.  His fastball tops out at 88-89, though that lack of speed certainly had the Tigers fooled for most of last night.  He’s got a career WHIP of 1.29 (good), and a career K/9 of 4.99 (not good).

Coke was nothing short of phenomenal in his last start, allowing 3 hits, 2 walks and 0 ER over 7 IPs against the Athletics.  Couple that with the last 4 2/3 innings of the KC game, and he’s thrown 11 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.  The over/under is set at 15.  Any takers?  Coke dominates in April, posting a career 2.29 ERA for the month.

In roster news – VMart may be headed to the DL.    Omir Santos was called up as an emergency back-up catcher, and they’ll have to send someone else down today before 1st pitch.  My guess would have been Austin Jackson, but he’s listed in the starting lineup.  I can’t see them sending down a reliever, so either VMart will be placed on the DL, or Don Kelly will have a lonely drive this evening.

Your incredibly suspect top of the order lineup (see if you can determine who I’m rooting for tonight):

1. AJax – CF
2. Rhymes – 2B
3. Don Kelly – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Boesch – DH
6. Raburn – LF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Big Bad Al Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

The Tigers mosey into Seattle tonight after letting a golden opportunity to take their second series go whizzing by their bats, mostly with runners on third and less than two outs.

The Tigers’ offense set a two-game mark for futility over the weekend, failing to capitalize even once in 5 R3L2O situations, and going 0-10 on Saturday with RISP, and 0-10 for Saturday/Sunday.  Yeah, that’s right, 0-10 on Saturday, and 0-0 on Sunday.  Other than the Wells HR, not a single runner reached second on Sunday.

Even with a paltry .240 team BA, the Tigers can scoff at 6 teams below them in the AL, including the Mariners who are hitting a top of the Tigers lineup friendly .214 as a team.

Jason Vargas has sandwiched 2 very good starts around a terrible one in which he gave up 7 earned in 3.1 innings against the Indians.  Remove that game and he’s given up 2 ER in 13.1 IPs with 13 Ks.  He held a capable Toronto lineup to 5 hits and 1 walk over 6 2/3 last time out against Toronto.  The Tigers can not take too much for granted, he did record 21 quality starts last season.

Scherzer’s 4.76 ERA still reflects his game 1 bashing (which he won), but has shrunk considerably over two quality starts.  Though he has allowed 7 hits in each of his last two outings, he’s managed to keep the runs down in those games (1, then 2), and has K’d 16 in 17 innings overall this season.

Fun stats of the day – Tigers pitchers have not allowed a home run in 10 games, most since StL pitchers went 11 games in 2009.  The Tigers’ record is 17 consecutive games back in 1947, aka Leyland’s rookie year.  Mariners lead the majors in bases loaded walks with 5.  That’s 1/2 as many hits as AJax has this year.

Your Magglio Ordonez outfield circus lineup is:

1. AJax – CF
2. Raburn – 2B
3. Ordonez – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez –  DH
6. Boesch – LF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

This afternoon is the asphalt game of the 4-game series as Brad “Bad” Penny takes on Trevor Cahill.  Then the Tigers skedaddle to Seattle.

Penny has a slight edge in the matchup, because Trevor Cahill is just not a very good baseball name.  More golf, really.  Watch for wild pitches; he has already had 3 this season, and at the Coliseum wild pitches have a lot of territory to roam.

Last night winning proved elusive (so no Charlie Sheen picture), and now we’re back to pursuing neither / nor.  Also, for once, my predictions fell flat, spectacularly. Although whether or not this is actually indicative of anything remains to be seen (see my publication:  “Incorrect predictions:  variance, or flat-out wrongness?”).

While we contemplate that question, let me say a word about the famous situation where you have the baserunning man on 3rd base and the number of outs is not 2, no, not at all.  The thing to do here is to hit the ball, somewhere, anywhere.  Because the aforementioned baserunning man will possibly score,  thus procuring your team a run.  By no means should you engage in swinging and whiffing–this is highly discouraged.

Last night Jhonny Peralta struck out in this very scenario, which was so rare and shocking that he could not resist doing the very same thing the next time he was at the plate.  Justin Verlander was so disturbed by this performance that he aimed a pickoff throw at the batter’s shoe (a normal baseball shoe;  the A’s left their clown shoes in the locker room last night).

This afternoon, Jim Leyland, known as the consummate player’s manager, will expertly avoid such embarrassment by devising a lineup which is extremely unlikely to produce a runner at 3rd with less than 2 out.

Player of the Pre-game: Austin Jackson

Brad Penny pitched well in his last start, but that was at 51 degrees.  With the warm afternoon Oakland weather, expect less break on the breaking balls, and a lot of long fly balls.  Whether AJax hauls them down or not will make the difference in the game. And let’s see how he responds to not being the leadoff batter.

Today’s xR3L2O lineup:

1. Will Rhymes 2B
2. Austin Jackson CF
3. Brennan Boesch DH
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Ryan Raburn LF
6. Don Kelly 3B
7. Johnny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Casper Wells RF

Jim Leyland has his 1,500th victory along with a bunch of cigars and some champagne (somehow the idea of Ol’ Smokey sipping from a flute of Dom just doesn’t resonate with me), and the Tigers have now climbed back up to the nor-winning-nor-losing mark (7- 7).  Next step: winning! (insert Charlie Sheen picture).

This is the plasticine game of the series, the Tigers having taken the first 2.  It is also the first game of the series which has the Tigers as the favorites, mostly because of the ace-ly presence of Justin Verlander on the mound.  Today also features an odd 6:00 pm PST start time, warm temperatures, and a stiff wind, so some non-Miggy balls may actually have a chance of clearing the park.  Not to fear though, since the warmer weather favors the pitcher with a fastball, and Justin sure has one (yes, I’m going to keep riding the weather horse until it bucks me).

One of the advantages of watching the Tigers in an opponent’s park (besides the fact that visitor-side tickets are easier to get) is the perspective you get from talking with / listening to the opposing team’s fans.  A’s fans were blasting Bob Geren last night:  the team is undisciplined, awful fundamentals (OK, is that really his fault?), bad bullpen management (they may have something there).

And the fans next to me all agreed:  the A’s could really go somewhere if only they had a manager like Jim Leyland. We were sitting in front of the bullpen, and they were all commenting on the difference between the A’s bullpen and the Tigers’–not the pitchers, but how it was managed.  “You guys are flat out professional” one commented.  “It’s all planned out.”

Player of the Pre-game:  Jim Leyland

OK, he isn’t actually a player.  But let’s celebrate his 1,500th, and be thankful he is not…Bob Geren.  Leyland’s lineup was heartily criticized on this very blog.  And yet almost all of his substitutions contributed to the victory:  even Donkey Don Kelly doubled.  And his pitching moves were right on.  So following that Smokey momentum, I will predict that Jackson and Ordonez spark the lineup tonight, with a timely contribution from Santiago.

Today’s Return-of-Magglio lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Ryan Raburn LF
3. Maggio Ordonez DH
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez C
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Brennan Boesch RF
8. Brandon Inge 3B
9. Ramon Santiago 2B