Category Archives: 2012 Season

2012 Season, Spring Training

PECOTA 2012

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PECOTA is the player performance projection system developed by Nate Silver and subsequently purchased by Baseball Prospectus.  I don’t have any documented support for this, but I think that it is safe to say that it is widely regarded as the best player forecaster around.  Before we get into the Tigers projections, realize that PECOTA is a useful tool, and the best around, but the system is significantly wrong more than it is significantly right.  (More on that in my next post)

But hey, it’s spring training.  This is what we do.

I’d likely be breaking a few copyright laws if I reposted all of the Tigers forecasts, so I’ll stick to the key ones.  But you should pick up a copy for yourself.  The book is only $14.97 on Amazon. There is significantly more info that what I’m using below.

First of all, it is worthwhile to note that BP is high on the Tigers in respect of the thoughts that a) they have their (now 3) best players at the top of their payroll, and in the prime of their careers (which is unusual), b) they have young arms, and c) their division rivals should be weak for the next few years.  The window is now.  The Tigers are sorely lacking in the OF and minor league depth, but those should not prevent the boys from competing for a few years.

Avila – BP sing his praises by saying that there are “no weaknesses in his game” and even a “significant drop in offensive value will leave him among the best” catchers in the AL.  PECOTA projects to 15 HR and 57 RBI on 75 less PAs that in 2011, but an .890 OPS and 3.2 WARP.

Prince – one of the things that always bugs me about Baseball Prospectus is that they never have any of the late January signings/injuries reflected in the book.  I don’t know anything about publishing, but I would think that they could update that stuff with a late February ship date.  Does anyone have any insight into this?  Anyway, BP projects another monster year for Fielder (these are taking into account Milwaukee park effects) with 39 HR, 104 RBI, a .952 OPS and a 5.5 WARP (which I think is the 2nd highest WARP projection for 2012, behind Pujols’ 5.9…I think there is some sort of a cap on PECOTA WARP, because I never see any projections about 6, though each year a handful of players end up easily surpassing 6 – Matt Kemp came in at 9.2 for 2011…same thing with pitcher wins, more on this in a later post).

Rayburn – 395 PAs, a respectable .779 OPS and a 1.8 WARP.

Peralta – BP goes on the record as saying that last year they were dead on for questioning the Inge signing last year, an dead wrong for questioning the Peralta one.  15 HR, 63 RBI, .739 OPS and a 2.4 WARP, down from 3.9 last year.

Miggy – BP notes that he’s at the peak of his career, and is signed through 2015.  31 HR, 102 RBI, .947 OPS and a 5.4 WARP, each of which would be worse than his 2010 and 2011 numbers (other than HR – he hit 30 last year).

Inge – 359 PAs resulting in a .224 average and .662 OPS, with a WARP of .8.

Boesch – BP writes that he has good upside, especially at his salary level.  451 PAs, 15 HR, .765 OPS and a 1.4 WARP (down from 2.2 last year).

AJax – BP called his prodigious BABIP (BA on balls in play) drop from 2010 to 2011, but sees an improvement in 2012 with higher Avg./OBP/Slg. and less strikeouts.  Though reduced PAs will lead to a slightly lower 2012 WARP of 1.7 (compared to 2011’s 2.0).  BA suggests that AJax would be a great 7 hole guy where his power could be more encouraged.

JV –  “There’s nothing our words can add to the majesty you’ve witnessed…”  BP cautions and calls attention to his well-known IPs and pitch count, but ends with “For all we know, he might just get better.  Enjoy.”  15 W, 7 L (I think there is a PECOTA rule against > 16 wins, much like the WARP > 6), 3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 191 Ks in 202 IPs with a 4.2 WARP.

Fister – 175 IPs, 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a 1.9 WARP.

Scherzer – BP falls in the the category of everyone and believes that Scherzer has ace stuff.  In fact, they give him a 22% chance of having a breakout year (meaning that production will improve by at least 20%), which is high for an already top of the rotation starter.  169 IPs, 161 Ks, 3.93 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  WARP is projected to be 1.7.

Porcello – 28% chance of a breakout for Porcello, which is more likely a result of his mediocrity to date than an endorsement.  158 IPs, 81 Ks, 4.36 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a WARP of .8.

Turner – “…he can become Rick Porcello with more punchouts.  That’s even better than it sounds.”  Only 48 IPs, 4.74 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Dotel – “..a worthwhile low-cost pickup to work the 7th” projects to 46 IPs, .290 BABIP, 3.67 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 0.6 WARP.

Perry – Oh yeah, he’s gone  Colin Balester doesn’t project to much better – 26 Ks in 41 IPs with a 5.39 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for a -0.4 WARP.

Benoit – BP is still critical of the high-dollar, multi-year deal for a setup guy, but admits that he one of the best change-ups in the league closer-level stuff.  3.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 53 Ks in 50 IPs and a WARP of 1.0.

Valverde – 29 saves (odd, because I think BP projects the Tigers to win 92-95 games), 63 Ks in 61 IPs, a 3.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP for a WARP of 1.1

 

2012 Season, Players, Spring Training

Slimmed Down Miggy and Other News

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Alex Avila is reporting that Miggy is “20-25” lbs lighter.  Can you tell (images)?

Tom Gage breaks down the 40 man here.  They are at 24 signed after yesterday.

Kate Upton is moonlighting as a spokesmodel for MLB2K12. See JV getting just a tip or two here.

Comerica is getting a face lift.  Look for lots of Prince Fielder slow jog shots on the new scoreboard.

And then there is Maggs.  He has made it known recently that he will only sign a major league deal for 2012, leading to speculation that his playing days may be over.  Freep reported a few days ago that if he doesn’t return to the bigs, he will take an ownership stake in the Caribes de Anzoátegui, a Venezuelan winter league team where he’s curiously been listed on the roster since 2004.

2012 Season

DTW News and Notes

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Let’s start with what remains the most pressing question other than Why is Brandon Inge still a Tiger? and that is, who will be pitching on April 15th in the D against the Pale Hose? Due to a silly opening weekend where the Tigers play 3 games in 5 days, I’m guessing that April 15th will be the first day for the 5th spot in the rotation.  Future rotation guys Turner or Oliver?  Maybe Duane Below gets a shot at starting, or Adam Wilk.  Or could it be Drew Smyly?  (pronounced “smy-ly”)  DD is all smiles these days and everyone’s got a shot.

The Tigers’ international scouts are working overtime these days as they remain in the running for Cespedes while finding time to ink a 16 year old Dominican for $280k.

Scott Boras called the Tigers “smart” and said the organization’s intellect was “ahead of the curve.”  That’s a lot like the IRS sending you a thank you note which says “thanks for being a good citizen.”

The new Verlander led MLB2k12 commercial is out, and it’s awful.  Never mind the “perfect game” dialogue while the screen shows two runners on.

2012 Season, Free Agents

The Point is to Win

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Not to make money.

The fallout from the Prince Fielder bomb has been full of back row Joes claiming that this was a terrible signing by the Tigers and forecasting that the Tigers will rue the day they set up Prince Fielder’s off-springs’ off-springs for life.  The fatal flaw that I find with these numbers-based analysts is the assumption that the Tigers are concerned about winning later.

Actually, I see four key assumptions, any of which, if untrue, make the criticisms irrelevant.

1) That Management is concerned with the payroll in 2016-2020.  There is no doubt that the Fielder contract will likely prove to be imprudent during the last 4 years of the deal.  But maybe management does not care.  Dombrowski has made it clear that the Tigers are trying to win right now.  Fielder gives them the best chance to do that, fielding issues be damned (did you know that the Yankees teams of the 2000s had some of the worst infields in the history of the play-by-play era (1951 – )?…and all they did was win 4 pennants and 2 World Series titles).  This is a five year deal, where the Tigers will happen to keep the player for the final four.

Or, there is always possibility of trading Fielder if his salary becomes an unbearable burden. The Rangers did it with ARod and they came out okay.

To be honest, I’m sure that management does care (though to what extent?  I mean, if DD doesn’t win a WS, he probably won’t be here in 5 years, so what does he care?…and if he does, he will have won a WS within the last 5 years, so what does he care?) about financial repercussions in the last half of this decade, but that to-do is well, well below many others on a list which I imagine begins with “Win a World Series.”  Mike Illitch is now 82 years old and it looks like he has made winning a WS his main MO.  But thank you Mike for making $5 Hot-N-Ready’s your last main MO.  I’m serious.

2) That Fielder could have been signed for less.  Someone was going to sign Fielder.  And I can not imagine any scenario where he was signed for less than 6 years, and likely not less than 8.  In fact, it’s likely the 9 years, not the annual salary, which lured Fielder to Detroit like a free donuts sign.  I watched one of the guys on MLB Network the night of the deal do a long piece on WAR and how much the Tigers would pay per Fielder’s win during the last half of the deal.  Sure, I get the numbers (more below), and I understand why Fielder is likely to decline precipitously from his MVP caliber production in a few years.  But what many have failed to address is the impossibility of getting Fielder now for a shorter contract.  And if assumption #3 below is not true, then the dollar cost per win is irrelevant.

3) That the Tigers are Mike Illitch wants to make money on an annual basis.  Despite winning the NBA title, and enjoying the accompanying extra gate revenues and apparel sales, the Dallas Mavericks lost $3.9M last year, and Cuban claims that the Mavs have made money in only 2 out of the 11 seasons that he has owned the team.  Sure, the value of the Mavs franchise is increasing, but using a purchase price of $285M, and a Forbes current value of $497M, that’s a return of 5%.  Hardly worth it taking into account the annual losses and the opportunity cost of Cuban’s capital, though I’m sure his accountants find a good spot for the losses.

Mike Illitch bought the Tigers in ’92 for $82M.  Forbes valued the franchise at $385M last year, which provides a nice 8% return for Illitch, though there have been several, if not mostly, money losing seasons.  But that’s the point, Mr. I doesn’t care.  He wants to win, he wants to win now, and we’re lucky to have him as the Tigers owner.

4) That the Tigers would have spent the money elsewhere.  The sharpest criticism seems to come from WAR calculations.  The accepted salary per marginal win around MLB is roughly $4M. Thus, at ~$24M per year, the Tigers need Fielder to come in with a WAR of 6 each year. Something he’s done only once in his career.  But, this assumes that the Tigers are using their dollars to buy marginal wins.  They aren’t.  They are simply buying wins, irrespective of a value they could have bought elsewhere.

To no one’s surprise, Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs wrote a thoughtful and informative piece shortly after the signing.  But I did take exception to the point he made at the end which suggested that the Tigers had to “vastly overpay” to get Fielder.  Vastly overpay according to whom?  Cameron operates in a world where FanGraphs stats set player values, but that’s simply not the case.  Pundits, bloggers and bar economists argue all the time what the right values are. But here’s what I think – REAL LIFE TRANSACTIONS SET VALUES FOR SUPERSTARS.   While I do believe that lesser tier players with paltry demand get offers based on numbers promulgated by the likes of FanGraphs, this is not the case for players who are in high demand. When resources are scarce, price goes up.  Prince Fielder represents the scarcest of resources. Thus, the reality of it is that Fielder was worth what a team was willing to pay him.  To get Fielder now, a long-term, expensive deal, was the price.  And there were at least 2 serious other suitors, if not more.  It’s not that the Tigers overpaid, but rather the Rangers and Nationals under bid.  And in light of the Pujols deal, the Fielder deal was spot on, maybe even a bargain.  I wish someone would develop a super-star factor and build that into their player value calculations.

Cameron also surmised that the Tigers should have spent the $214M on CJ Wilson and Jose Reyes instead of on Fielder.  Again, I get that Cameron has to stick to his guns, but not a single person even thought about the Tigers + CJ Wilson until Cameron used CJ because the numbers fit his point.

A final note about the infield – I don’t believe for a minute that Cabrera will be the everyday third baseman.  Sure, he’s likely to take more starts there than anyone else, but with the way that Leyland tinkers with his lineups, I expect Cabrera to start about 60 games at 3B, 50 games at 1B, 40 games at DH, and a handful in RF.  I think we’ll see Inge at 3B when Fister and Porcello start, and lots of late inning substitutions.  Remember, when Cabrera does start at 3rd, this will have a greatly desired consequence of keeping Brandon Inge out of the line-up, and further amplify the Fielder run production benefit.

2012 Season

DTW News and Notes

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This is not the time of year when hope springs eternal;  it is more the time when things seem infernal.

As we all know by now, the Tigers will be doing 2012 without Victor Martinez.  As if that isn’t bad enough, the interim between this disaster and the eventual response is being filled with headlines that do anything but inspire (Could Brad Penny be the Tigers’ No. 5 starter again?).

Nonetheless, one more word about V-Mart.  One of the things that really hurts about losing Martinez, is that 2011 was only the second time during the Dombrowski/Leyland reign that the Tigers have had an even average DH (the other was in 2007, Gary Sheffield with a pinch of Thames).  Subpar DH (and leadoff hitter) has been a constant before last season, with the Tigers using the DH spot as a place to give semi-rest to semi-injured players.

Detroit DH since 2006 (OPS, AL avg DH OPS, AL rank):

  • 2006 .774 (.819) 9th
  • 2007 .831 (.802) 5th
  • 2008 .697 (.775) 13th
  • 2009 .704 (.780) 13th
  • 2010 .713 (.758) 11th
  • 2011 .796 (.771) 4th

Martinez’ OPS at DH was actually .903, which would have been 2nd best in the AL.  But old habits die hard, and a semi-injured Ordonez had 86 ABs at DH (OPS .393).

Which brings us to Johnny Damon,  who has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Martinez (Jason Beck thinks it makes sense.), a kind of Ahead to the Past sort of thing:  Damon’s 2010 .708 OPS at DH was the reason the Tigers were at the bottom of the league in DHing that year.  Then again, he provides that intangible something (which isn’t fielding).  Next thing you know they will be bringing back Gerald Laird.  But not to worry, Dombrowski says everything will be OK.

Other rumored replacements include Hideki Matsui and Raul Ibanez,  and even Juan Pierre.

On the other hand, there is more to the lineup than the DH,  and help may come from other sources.  Brandon Inge promises to be a much bigger part of the lineup this season–literally.  Inge has added over 20 lbs so far in the offseason, and consequently intends to be the everyday 3rd baseman next season. Drew Sharp thinks he should zip it.

And as far as that leadoff problem goes:  John Lowe points out that Austin Jackson is a great fielder in CF, just like Willie Mays was.  And boy could Willie hit!  Maybe that will happen to Austin too!  Who knows!

Time does not permit reviewing the happenings with the division rivals, but we can spare a moment here for a bit of sympathy for the Indians, who are stuck with a fictional pitcher in their starting lineup.  He escaped detection all of this time because…who would make up “Fausto?” No word on whether Roberto Hernandez Heredia will be signed to take the place of Carmona, or whether Gary Sheffield has been contacted as a character witness.

Spring Training is less than 6 weeks away!

2012 Season

DTW News and Notes

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A few notes amid the clearing bowl fog and settling NFL storm.

– JV will be on Conan tomorrow night.

– Mario Impemba won the Michigan Sportscaster of the Year award today.  This should look nice on his mantle next to his “World’s Most Patient Man” and “Least Likely to Point Out Grammatical/Journalistic/Fact” awards given out by Kevin in Dallas.  Just kidding…I see you RA.

– Barry Larkin was voted into the HoF yesterday.  Jack Morris is inching closer, garnering 67% of the votes yesterday.  I saw this on Freep: Morris received a higher percentage of voters than Boston’s Jim Rice and Minnesota’s Bert Blyleven did two years before their respective elections to Cooperstown.

– The Tigers quietly signed Eric Patterson to a Minor League contract last Friday, supposedly closing out the 2B prospects.  Uh….

– Here’s your obligatory Kerry Wood rumor.  Quick prayer for a pass.  My favorite part about the articles is the acknowledgement of a $1.5M tag for Wood last year, and then a suggestion that the Tigers offer Wood $4M for 2012.