53-44, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.
Good win last night to cap off a terrible series. I’m still frustrated about JV’s start. I have JV in my Scoresheet league. Here’s my typical reaction rajectory during a JV start.
1st inning: “That’s okay, just a hit, guess we won’t get a no hitter tonight.”
Later in the 1st inning: “Oh well, just a run, he’ll still lower his ERA a good chunk tonight.”
3rd inning: “Okay, it’s a few runs, but as long as he doesn’t give up more than 3, the Tigers can still comfortably win the game.”
4th inning: “Ahhhh, heck, this will definitely be a fantasy loss with my weak hitting scoresheet team.”
4th inning: “Goodness, his ERA is going to blow up.”
5th inning: “I hate baseball.”
But let’s not overlook the great start by Fister last night, and the shut down 7-8-9 bullpen. I was surprised to see Smyly/Rondon 7-8, but I think that was a situational thing.
The combined pitching line for the five relievers who pitched in the KC series – 7.1IP 3H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 7SO. Salty.
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Anyway, I’ve been meaning to write about the bunt for a while. More often than not these little research jaunts are a way for me to prove a barroom opinion that I was willing to lay down my life for a few nights back. Oftentimes, I end up scrapping the blog post because the research demands that I restate my opinion, or act as if it never happened.
Unfortunately, that’s not the case here.
Before we get started, we need to understand “Run Expectancy.” Run Expectancy is the number of a runs a team can expect to score given a certain state of affairs. If you Google it you’ll see a bevy of examples. I’m using the 2013 #s over from Baseball Prospectus, but note that the RE is almost the exact same regardless of year (recent year) provided you have a large enough sample size. For starters, here is the difference between a runner on 1st with no outs, and a runner on 2nd with 1 out.
Runners
|
# of Outs
|
Run Expectancy
|
1st
|
0
|
.86
|
2nd
|
1
|
.66
|
Simply, you shouldn’t bunt, unless you like scoring 25% less runs.
Now let’s take a look at a specific Tigers’ instance.
On Saturday night, the Tigers got the first two men on base in the top of the 8th. Austin Jackson stepped up with the Tigers down one. Leyland put on the bunt sign.
Here is an abbrievated Run Expectancy (“RE”) matrix for this particular situation.
Runners
|
# of Outs
|
Run Expectancy
|
1st & 2nd
|
0
|
1.43
|
2nd & 3rd
|
1
|
1.30
|
As you can see from the chart above, the Tigers would be expected to score more runs in the current state of affairs, rather than moving the runners over and sacrificing an out. (For those of you who haven’t spent a lot of time in sabermetrics, outs are to baseball what hearts are to Link in Zelda. Outs are your life force. You should do everything you can to conserve them. You can read about this all over the place. Let me know if you want some good sources.
But to put it bluntly, you do not want to give up outs.
Now, despite calling for a bunt when he shouldn’t have, Leyland was granted a reprieve. The count went to 3-1. 3-1! A great hitters count! This year, on a 3-1 count, Jackson’s OPS is 1.762. After a 3-1 count, his OPS is 1.469. Take off the bunt! I was screaming into my At Bat app, at the hospital, quietly. Take off the bunt!
No matter.
In the end, Jackson did bunt, successfully. But the Tigers failed to score in a 2&3 1 out situation. And they lost the game.
All of that said, I must note that the chances of scoring a run are better in the runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (~69%) vs. 1st and 2nd with 0 out (~64%). But that is just 1 run. Considering our late inning woes, Leyland should have played for a multi-run inning with a rally opportunity; rather than giving away an out.
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A few notes:
– VMart is hitting .391 with a 1.029 OPS in July. His average is up to .263.
– AJax is 9-53 wit 21 Ks in his past 13. He’s struck out at least once in every game this month.
– Infante is not expected to play in the White Sox series.
Tonight’s Series Opening Lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Perez, 2B