David Price vs. Rick Porcello tonight. This is your typical pitcher’s duel setup, meaning that the final score will be 9-8 or something.

Game preview

Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB

Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB

Let’s be fair. In spite of a couple eggs laid just lately (and not goose eggs), the starting rotation has carried (and dropped, and carried again) the Tigers to the good record they have. That’s how baseball works. It’s harder than it used to be to slug your way out of a bad pitching staff. But with a couple bad starts, or at least failed ones, fresh in our minds, let’s wallow in…

ALL THE BAD ONES

It’s no surprise that you’d have a losing record in failed starts, but 2-17? Wow. Gotta pick ’em up a little better than that, eh? The flip side is that Detroit is 46-19 (.708) in games where the starter gave the team a fair to excellent chance of winning. Let’s put that in our pipes and smoke it.

J.D. MARTINEZ, 2014 EXTRAPOLATED TO 162 GAMES

J.D. MARTINEZ, CAREER 162 GAME EXTRAPOLATION

TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Victor against Price could be will be was sorely missed.

NOTABLE (PREGAME): Yesterday, if you happened to take a (long) nap during the 5th and 6th innings, you saw a pretty good game, aside from a rather persistent defensive clown show. So forget it – I guess there was no good game any way you slice it. Sanchez ruled through 4, and then the wheels came off. And would someone tell me why he had such a hard time putting away Ryan Hanigan (!) with 2 strikes?? That was the first sign of trouble. Let’s make a note of this. Chris Archer. Look at his face – dude’s 10 years old, man. (In truth, I knew going in as many of you did that Archer is no unknown and made a splash in 2013, though I wouldn’t have been able to tell you that he’d made 44 MLB starts, is 25, and had a career 3.38 ERA.) I don’t know whether Archer was that good or Tigers hitters were that bad, but since he was at about 30 pitches through 8 innings and made a great play on Jackson’s line drive, I’ll tip my cap. Were there any scoring chances of the runners on variety? (OK, yes – see yesterday’s postgame box link.) This is that rare game where I could rant and rave about a quicker hook for Sanchez and how the Tigers seemed to be phoning it in and how ashamed they should be. I feel kind of ashamed for having watched all of it. Well, no, not really. What I should feel ashamed of is holding out hope for that one big inning, I suppose. More fool me… Ian Krol threw 11 pitches with one strikeout in a scoreless inning for West Michigan on Friday… LHP Pat McCoy has looked pretty good so far, and even if he was up for a look and not much more, it’s unfortunate that he did something to his hamstring yesterday under those circumstances, 9th inning of a dismal game. McCoy was slow to the bag, sure, but couldn’t Miggy have at least tried to take that one himself?

POSTGAME OK, maybe it wasn’t such a terrible game. A lot of hard-hit balls off a true Cy, a lot of bad breaks, 3.1 innings of shutout ball from the pen, a HR each from Hunter and J.D. (his 7th this year in the 9th inning!), and a wee bit of drama along with the lightning, thunder, and rain at game’s end. When your starter gives up 7 runs, it’s pretty much out of reach, and Porcello’s scoreless streak came to a sad end.

SERIES WRAP: Taking 1 of 4 from the Rays at home was disappointing, to say the least. Call it a team effort. Now 48-37, the Tigers have a day to lick their wounds and regroup for the tall task ahead – Dodgers and Royals.

DET hitting v. TBR

TBR hitting v. DET

DET pitching v. TBR

TBR pitching v. DET

SERIES ALL-STAR TEAM

SP Scherzer
RP Boxberger
C Avila
1B Cabrera
2B Forsythe
SS Zobrist
3B Longoria
LF J. Martinez
CF Jennings
RF Hunter
DH V. Martinez

* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com  and http://mlb.mlb.com  and http://beck.mlblogs.com and http://www.milb.com

Chris Archer vs. Anibal Sanchez today.

Game preview

Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB

Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB

TODAY’S LINEUPS:  Sorry, Ray. This is a Tigers blog. Victor is out, yup and (long-term) uh-oh. The Lettuce is in and AJax is back at leadoff, cue fan outrage. But Davis is in LF today and may distract us, positively speaking.

NOTABLE (PREGAME): Last night can be summed up in the phrase “not good enough.” Not terrible, except for Mr. Gilded Mexican Headwear at the plate, but not good enough. Smyly, apparently, either has it or doesn’t, no gutting it out or battling back for him. He didn’t have it, and was in one batter too long when Sean Rodriguez put the nail in the coffin. Not good enough. Alex Cobb bested the Tigers for 5, and when the base-loaded, no outs situation came to be, getting one run out of it was clearly not good enough. Lost in the shuffle was great defense from Kinsler to get one out on a run-scoring play and some nice defense at 3B by Kelly in the 9th… As we contemplate the deals Detroit (or the Olde English DD) might make before the trade deadline, one thing to remember is that any meaningful suggestion starts with giving up someone you’d rather not. Cabrera, Victor, Kinsler, Verlander, and Sanchez are all off the table, of course. Scherzer might not be off the table, but when you consider where the Tigers are (1st place) and a big reason why (Scherzer), well then, I guess Scherzer is off the table. What do the Tigers need so badly that they would give up the young talent of Porcello, Smyly, Castellanos, or Suarez to get? Or current hot ticket J.D.? (Nothing.) What’s left of the good to pretty good, and what of that is – more or less – surplus? Hunter? Davis? Surely not Alburquerque or Chamberlain? What’s to gain, what’s the need? Bullpen, you say. Well, they can probably get Joaquin Benoit at a reasonable price in trade, but is even that really worth it? Does Benoit put this team over the top? So why’d they let him go? Counting on Rondon? Anyway, some of us would love to unload Jackson or Avila, but the return would not be flashy or likely to solve anything immediately. Unlike last season, Detroit doesn’t have to make any deals at all. No Garcia situation, no Peralta situation. But Mr. Dombrowski may have something shrewd and more subtle up his sleeve just the same, planning for September/October even now… I guess it’s safe to say that J.D. Martinez is for real… Unfortunately, the recent aches and pains of the other Martinez are also for real. Victor (back soreness, right side) might be “back” for the Dodgers. Or he might not. Chronic isn’t what we want to hear, but it’s the word I’m starting to see in my crystal ball. Uh-oh.

POSTGAME Look away, it’s hideous.

* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com  and http://mlb.mlb.com  and http://beck.mlblogs.com

Hurray for all the good citizens and inhabitants of this fine country, past and present. Hurray for all the champions and defenders of American liberty, now and ever. Hurray for freedom and civil society. Hurray for making the most of it and making it better. For everyone. Except for assorted criminals and saboteurs, such as the Tampa Bay Rays.

Alex Cobb vs. Drew Smyly tonight.

Game preview

Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB

Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB

TURNING BASERUNNERS INTO RUNS

TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Where’s Nick? Oh, right. Watch out, Don. Could be going around.

NOTABLE (PREGAME): Last night, fine D in the 3rd from Castellanos and Suarez took two Tampa Bay hits off the board and helped Scherzer cruise the rest of the way. The only Tigers batter not to reach was Suarez. How good was that offense? Cabrera reached 4 times and scored 4 times, and yet was surpassed in statistical big game by both V. Martinez and Hunter. That’s how good. Chad Smith got that elusive third out in the 9th without intervening hits. There is so much to praise about Scherzer’s performance that I’ll settle for one thing: He pitched the last 7 innings like he didn’t have the lead. Still not a bad idea to lift him. Save that next CG for an adrenaline game… We all know why Cabrera’s doubles were way down last year, don’t we? They are back with a vengeance this season. Miggy is on pace for 90 XBH in 2014, which would eclipse anything previous from him – and that’s saying a lot. 

POSTGAME Sombrero Man deserves some heat, but see play of the game. 16% is big. Boxberger 1, Hunter 0.

* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com and http://mlb.mlb.com and Betsy Ross and Coleman

Erik Bedard vs. Max Scherzer tonight.

Game preview

Detroit Tigers on BBREF or MLB

Tampa Bay Rays on BBREF or MLB

Team comparison: The Rays are stronger in the OF, at 3B, and in the bullpen, but are otherwise overmatched.

DETROIT HITTING RE24/WPA – PITCHING RE24/WPA

DETROIT RECENT HITTING – RECENT PITCHING

TAMPA BAY HITTING RE24/WPA – PITCHING RE24/WPA

TAMPA BAY RECENT HITTING – RECENT PITCHING

TONIGHT’S LINEUPS: Victor is back.

NOTABLE (PREGAME): The Tigers just swept the best team in the AL to finish the first half on one of the season’s highest notes… The emergence of one and the decline of two have combined to yield a fluid situation in the outfield that may yet turn a weakness into a strength… Detroit is rumored to have trade interest in Joaquin Benoit. Given his contract, I find this hard to believe… Ian Krol has been cleared for rehab assignment and is expected to rejoin the team within a week or so.

POSTGAME

* Stats, facts, graphics, and assorted coolness courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com and http://mlb.mlb.com

So much to talk about.

We could start with Rick Porcello, who finds himself in serious All-Star starter contention after posting his second consecutive complete game shutout.  His four hit gem yesterday saw first pitch strikes to 24 of 31 batters, and extended his scoreless streak to 25 innings. Porcello had 0 Ks and 0 walks last night, the first time that has happened in a CG shutout in 25 years.

His success is coming despite a K rate of 5.2 /9. His success can be attributed to a number of things, but defense has got to be a big part of it. Porcello is inducing groundballs like pro-am day at the driving range. More agile, and well placed, fielders are making a huge difference.

And how about JD Martinez? In June he slugged at a .702 clip and posted a 1.069 OPS, and he’s on pace for a 2.000 OPS for July!

Continuing, starting pitching has returned to form as of late, and if JV wins today, he’ll be at .500 for the season. I still don’t get how the 1st inning run in his last start out was earned. WP gets Altuve the 3rd, wild throw, an error on Avila, gets the run home. Are pitchers at fault b/c of the wild pitch?

Anyway, a chance to sweep the AL leading and monster hitting A’s doesn’t come about every day. It would be a great way to hammer the final nail in the 10-20 coffin (though I think that thing is pretty well sealed).

1. Jackson, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Hunter, DH
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Avila, C
8. Romine, SS
9. Davis, LF

Last night’s ultimate slam was epic. I felt fortunate to be listening. But it only counts as one win. We gotta win this series.

For whatever reason the Tigers have had the A’s number over the past few years, and David Schoenfiled postulates that the Tigers may be in Oakland’s head. I wouldn’t take it that far, but it has been wonderful theater.

*****

Last night the ’84 team was honored (again). It’s still cool. Check out the fans roaring “Louuuuuuuuuu” one more time. Man I used to love that.

We should have a Trammell/Whitaker HoF discussion on here one day. I called into a local radio show when I was 14 and asked about them. They hosts said they were on the fence.

VMart is out again, hopefully this doesn’t last much longer.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez, DH
5. Hunter, RF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Holaday, C
8. Suarez, SS
9. Davis, LF

44-34, 1st place, 3.5 up on KC.

Tough series over the weekend. The Tigers led for what, 1 inning out of 27? The Astros are playing some good baseball these days. They are going to be fun to watch over the next few years. They really played well against the Tigers, excelling in all facets of the game. Altuve just tied a major league record with four consecutive games of multiple stolen bases, the last three against the noodle armed Avila/Holaday combo. Did we ever get Altuve out?

Despite all of that, the Tigers had plenty of opportunity to sweep the series. I’m not sure how to calculate BABIP over three games, but I am certain that we were way low from a balls in play stand-point. The Tigers were ripping the ball left and right.

So in comes the MLB best Oakland Athletics. There’s lots of talk about post-season history and a face-off of the AL’s best, but in all reality, this series isn’t that big. Sure, it could be seen as a measuring stick, but we live in the AL Central, and a ruler will suffice where most divisions need yardsticks.

Kazmir v. Sanchez today.

VMart scratched with “soreness.”

1. Davis, LF
2. Kinsler, 2B
3. Cabrera, 1B
4. Martinez JD, DH
5. Hunter, RF
6. Castellanos, 3B
7. Avila, C
8. Suarez, SS
9. Jackson, CF

Last night: The Tigers haven’t roughed up too many starters this season. Add Joe Saunders to the short list, and he was spared from getting rocked completely only by his own lack of command and good positioning + Rougned Odor. Detroit jumped off to a “comfortable” lead very quickly. I can’t believe Miggy scored the 5th run on Hunter’s shallow single to LF. Neither can Dave Clark (who said STOP!) or Shin-Soo Choo. Choo must have come up looking at Clark rather than Cabrera – chalk up another “he wouldn’t dare” run for Miggy. (Big run, looking back. No 1-run lead jitters. Only 2- and 3-run lead jitters.) Sanchez was just dealing… until the middle of the second Leonys Martin PA (0-2 to BB). After that, he wasn’t the same. The 4th inning clown show featuring the defensive liability stylings of Holaday and Castellanos was no help. Fortunately, Martinez & Martinez struck right back again to pad the lead back to 7-3. Victor now has more HR than the Kansas City Royals, and J.D. now has more HR than… Cabrera over his last 41 games. It was kind of lousy of Victor to rob J.D. of an RBI, though. Then came the 5th and 6th. HBP, HR, HBP. Sanchez was adrift. Hardy to the rescue, but there were indications that the Tigers offense might be over. 7-4 is a nervous lead in Arlington. (As are 7-5, 8-5, and 8-6.) Hardy lost potential Golden Boy status in the 7th with a leadoff walk and a strikeout of Choo that wasn’t really. The lead shrunk in that too-eventful 7th, but again Detroit came back with a run of their own thanks to a clutch double from Suarez. Coulda been more, but things went wrong. I’m actually a bit more peeved with the 3rd out from Davis than I am with Holaday’s inexplicable try for home. Haven’t seen Joba in a while besides lineup card duty. Here he was in the 8th, and he got by on defense (Suarez, Davis in CF). The Tigers 9th, well, I’d say we expected more from the meaty part of the lineup, but I guess they were exhausted from earlier. In comes Nathan, and he both maintained his +6 ERA and got the save in one swell foop. All in all, the bullpen bent but did not break. Not a real good day for the pitchers. Chalk this one up to the bats. And speaking of defense, I’ve decided I’d like to see less of Holaday. It was really bad.

Tip of the cap: I don’t know if I’ve said this before, but Adrian Beltre is unstoppable. 2B Rougned Odor made the play that kept the Rangers in the game, and made an uncomfortable (for us) something out of nothing later (triple out of a strikeout, only in America). How many Tigers outs is C Robinson Chirinos responsible for now? He needs a day off.

For the sweep, for the season series, for the winning streak that can’t end just yet, we pin most of our hopes on Rick Porcello, who faces Nick Martinez in the finale. Going back to 2011, including a beauty last season, 3 of Porcello’s last 4 starts at Texas have been quite good indeed.

POSTGAME: Shin-Soo Choo battled the sun and lost. Rangers have communication difficulties in the OF. Hunter has depth perception difficulties in RF, and if you had been told that Porcello had thrown 20% of his total pitches in the 1st, would you have guessed the outcome? Hunter’s restraint in walking with the bases loaded deserves some recognition, even if an entirely different Nick Martinez was already pitching himself out of the game. The failure to really cash in on bases-loaded situations does not go unnoticed even when the team is on a roll. Jackson (2-run single) should swing at first pitches much more often. Blowout stifled courtesy of Elvis Andrus and the 3rd-inning-ending DP he starts on Hunter’s hard grounder. Sparkling 4-6-3 double play Tigers. It is good news if J.D. can keep hanging back on breaking balls and hitting them as deep as the sac fly that made it 5-0. Sparkling 4-6-3 double play Tigers. Carlos Pena thought that 3-6-1 DP on Victor was funnier than I did. Sparkling 4-6-3 double play Tigers. Is there an echo in here? Jackson forgets he plays CF for the Tigers and covers a mile to retire Beltre. The inscrutable Mr. Choo’s bad day continues as he gets a glove and no more on Cabrera’s home run disguised as a double, and Kinsler (isn’t it always Kinsler?) scores to make it 6-0. Golden Boy finishes 0 for 5 but doesn’t strike out. Hardy warms up a few times but doesn’t pitch. The only drama in the bottom 9th is the drama of your team running out the clock when the opponent has used up all their time outs.

Porcello turned in a gem, a keeper, best of the season by a Tiger. A COMPLETE GAME SHUTOUT featuring 13 groundball outs (not counting the 3 bonus ones on double plays) and 6 strikeouts. It wasn’t wasted; aside from one miscue, it was fully supported.

Tip of the cap: Scott Baker did a pretty decent job in the underappreciated role of “long (really long) man,” a.k.a. second-chance starter. SS Andrus made a snazzy play that made a difference, even in a losing cause.

43-32, 7 in a row, on to Houston.

Last night: You know it was a good game when there is something positive to say about every Tiger who played in it. But, after the great start with Kinsler’s solo shot (sly wave to Rangers dugout), it settled into the feeling of one of those should have won but didn’t games, where you start to take mental notes on all the little things that might have cost ‘em the game. An uncharacteristic bad send call by Dave Clark with VMart DOA; Smyly hurrying his throw on a sure DP and contributing to Suarez’s muff; SB attempts which were good ideas that didn’t work and were no less costly for being worth trying in a 1-1 game. The Tigers again were not solving Colby Lewis; it took Mr. Cabrera three tries, and then Daniel Robertson robbed him of his just reward (we see this from opposing CF’s quite regularly). Smyly frustrated me a bit, getting knocked off his game too easily early and requiring what seemed like an unusual amount of babysitting from Avila, and also making a couple bad plays that cost a DP each time (the aforementioned hurry and throw, odd failure to get over and find 1B bag later). Ultimately, Drew was quite good without being very efficient about it, until he retired 9 of his last 10. When the Tigers did start to get to Lewis, they kept it up against submariner Ben Rowen, who was throwing submarine BP. 11 Tigers came to the plate in the 7th, and it would take a long paragraph to go over everything that went so right. The catalyst, the game-winner, was presented right away by Martinez Bros., Inc.. When J.D. came to bat for the 2nd time in the inning, we all hungered for another grand slam and a blowout, but alas, Golden Boy would strike out his last two times up. The Tigers bullpen emerged unscathed through 3 but for a consolation run off Smith, who is having difficulties getting that 3rd out. 16-hit attack for Detroit despite an 0 for 9 from Miggy and Castellanos. Avila was stroking it, and implausibly, considering the first 2 PA, so was Davis. 3-RBI Kinsler got some instant karma with a bad strikeout and a rare error, but hey. They should have won and did. Convincingly.

Tip of the cap: Elvis Andrus is fun to watch even when he goofs. Good play by Smyly & Co. to pick him off, but the best part was Andrus lunging at Cabrera in the rundown in an attempt at drawing “interference.” Comical. Adrian Beltre is unstoppable. Colby Lewis has the Tigers’ number to some degree, I’d say.

Now it’s Anibal Sanchez, our true ace, against Joe Saunders. Torii is back, and with a vengeance, we hope.

Tonight’s Hint Taken Lineup:

CF Davis
2B Kinsler
3B Cabrera
DH V. Martinez
LF J.D. Martinez
RF Hunter
3B Castellanos
C Holaday
SS Suarez

P Sanchez

Coming off of a road sweep of a division rival (nice), a revenge sweep (nicer), and a weekend sweep followed by a day off (nicest of all) (sorry, that was only one sweep total, but check back in a week), Detroit (40-32, 1st Central, 2nd AL) is in Tejas for a three-game series with the Rangers (35-40, 4th West, 11th AL). All night games. There is a chance for some revenge here as well: Last time out against Texas, the Tigers should have been arrested for pitching while blind. What a demoralizing home series that was, surely one of the two lowest points of the season to date (lucky me, I drew both).

Here are your handy quick reference guides for the upcoming series:

Tigers on BBREF
Tigers on MLB
Rangers on BBREF
Rangers on MLB
The all-important RE24/WPA rundown
Fascinating team comparison
What have you done for me/them lately?

Detroit hasn’t won a season series with Texas since 2011. They later lost the series that mattered that postseason, and have gone 7-14 vs. the Rangers since. The Tigers are clearly the better team these days. So what’s it gonna be?

Fun fact: Since 2006, the Tigers have losing records against only 5 of 29 opponents.

Even as things were going downhill for the Tigers there for one tough month, I found it hard to jump on the pessimist bandwagon wholeheartedly. It’s not that I was going out of my way to look on the bright side, but only that I wasn’t seeing lack of effort, poor managing, the need for an overhaul, or the end of anyone’s careers. The only extraordinary thing about 9-20 was the number of pitching collapses (I count 11). 8 games where the starter put the team in a very deep hole! (Check my facts. I still find 8 hard to believe, but I’m tired of looking.) You might say that the team record was 9-12 without those 8 forfeits. Underachieving, yes. Catastrophe by W-L, certainly. Crisis of confidence? Only to a fan. Do you really want the team to dwell on the losses and hang their heads, be “ashamed”? Of course not. Brush it off, look ahead. They do it. We can do it, too.

Tough month in the rear view mirror, up ladders and down chutes, Detroit finds themselves exactly where they were about a year ago. 40-32, with a refreshingly different team overall. Smokey Jr.? Come on, people.

Now, even aside from the 4-game win streak, good news abounds. Evan Reed is DFA, and Ian Krol is resting his crappy pitching. Blaine Hardy’s left arm has started off on the right foot, and Phil Coke had an outing that didn’t need to be qualified in any way. We’re going to get looks at McCoy and Smith as we did with Knebel – interesting for a fan, no? (The next best thing to having a good bullpen is making an effort to get one together.) The hitting is starting to click on enough cylinders, I think.

The Avila Thing: Is the general feeling that Holaday could actually replace Avila as the starting catcher? I’m afraid the overall gain could be slighter than you think. More Holaday, sure, I’m down with that.

The Outfield Thing: Is J.D. MarTinez the latest incarnation of Marcus Thames and Matt Tuiasosopo?

No one’s replacing Torii Hunter in RF, but could more frequent rest be a perfect fit for a more flexible plan?

Aside from effort, there’s not a whole bunch of anything coming from Austin Jackson. Would they trade him? There are other options in CF.

Rajai Davis in CF more often? In the choice between a lineup featuring either Jackson-J.D., Jackson-Davis, or J.D.-Rajai, is it still mix and match or more one or the other? There seems to be a bit more to like in one of them, doesn’t there?

What’s on the Andy Dirks horizon, and might that not crowd things in a good way? Odd man out? Jackson. Kelly, Dirks himself?

Anyway… Drew Smyly vs. Colby Lewis in the first game. Smyly has been superb lately. Things are lookin’ good for a good ballgame. Lineups to follow… I think.

Tonight’s Rootin’ Tootin’ Lineup:

LF Rajai “Heartbreaker” Davis
2B Ian “Pan Am Highway Blues” Kinsler
1B Miguel “Ten Dollar Man” Cabrera
DH Victor “El Diablo” Martinez
RF J.D. “Enjoy And Get It On” Martinez
3B Nick “Avalon Hideway” Castellanos
CF Austin “Asleep In The Desert” Jackson
C Alex “It’s Only Glove” Avila
SS Eugenio “Snappy Kakkie” Suarez

P Drew “There Ain’t No Cause For Alarm” Smyly