Category Archives: AL Central

Detroit Tigers related news from the American League Central Division

2013 Season, AL Central

How the Central Was Won and Where It Got Us

One way of measuring the Tigers against the other AL Central teams is to judge which of those opposing players could crack Detroit’s lineup. These guys aren’t necessarily “better than,” but I would argue that they are all “as good as” or darned close. (This kind of comparison doesn’t really work for pitching staffs; if you disagree, by all means have a go at it yourself.)

C Joe Mauer* (TWINS), Carlos Santana (INDIANS), Salvador Perez (ROYALS)
1B
2B Jason Kipnis (INDIANS)
SS Asdrubal Cabrera (INDIANS), Alcides Escobar (ROYALS), Alexei Ramirez (WHITE SOX)
3B
LF Josh Willingham (TWINS), Alex Gordon (ROYALS), Michael Brantley (INDIANS)
CF Michael Bourn (INDIANS)
RF
DH Billy Butler (ROYALS)

Clearly, the Tigers have the best overall lineup. Defense is being considered here as well as hitting, in case you’re wondering. (The White Sox, however, deserve some honorable mentions in 1B Paul Konerko and their OF of Dayan Viciedo, Alejandro De Aza, and Alex Rios.) But Detroit thoroughly outclasses the rest of the division at only (or “only”) 3 positions. Close to it at 3 more, however. Yeah. Strong lineup. (The 900-run lineup, possibly.)

* Joe Mauer hasn’t been anything close to a full-time catcher since 2010, but a healthy Mauer gets the nod over Alex Avila. Admit it.

What does pitching (measured by team ERA) mean in the AL Central? Well, from 2008-2012, the division winner had the best team ERA 4 out of 5 times, and the ERA ranking matched the team’s position in the final standings 21 out of 25 times (I called the 2009 last place tie a wash), and the only somewhat significant flip-flop was 1st for 3rd in 2009.

Bullpens are volatile. I won’t attempt any detailed breakdown. (You try it.) On paper, Cleveland and Kansas City appear to come into the season with the best frontline bullpens, and the Tigers are in the muddle with the other 2 teams. On the other hand, the Tigers’ only rival for bullpen depth appears to be the White Sox. The bullpen shouldn’t be a weakness for Detroit, certainly. But bullpens are volatile.

No detailed breakdown is necessary to assert with confidence that the Detroit Tigers have the best starting rotation in the division. But I’ll line up ranked 1-5 starters (best on down, regardless of designated order position) to see who wins the statistical head-to-head just the same, TIGERS-ROYALS-WHITE SOX-TWINS-INDIANS:

#1. Verlander-Shields-Peavy-Diamond*-Jimenez
#2. Scherzer-Santana-Sale-Worley-Masterson
#3. Fister-Davis-Danks*-Correia-McAllister
#4. Sanchez-Guthrie-Floyd-Pelfrey-Myers
#5. Porcello-Mendoza-Quintana-Hendriks/DeVries-Kazmir

* Currently on DL.

Certainly Jake Peavy, Chris Sale, and James Shields give their Tigers counterparts a bit of a run for their money. (JV? A bit, I said.) But it’s not home bias that makes me call the Tigers starters the unequivocal class of the division. Kansas City and Chicago run a rather distant second. On paper, only a divisional All-Star rotation (Shields-Peavy-Sale-Santana-umm…-Diamond or Danks or Davis, let’s say) could compete. There again, paper doesn’t get sore or injured. Let us hope for unusual good fortune as far as the flesh and blood arms (and other parts) of all Tigers pitchers are concerned.

There isn’t much correlation between team defensive statistics and making the playoffs. The Tigers had a remarkably bad defensive year in 2012 by a number of measures (check out team DP, rTot, and DefEff on baseball-reference – ugh). From 2008 to 2010, Detroit was actually quite strong defensively. 2011 was poor (went to ALCS) and 2012 was abysmal (went to WS) – go figure. While the Chicago White Sox appear to be the class of the division in defense, and any of the other teams are possibly superior to the Tigers, let’s not worry about it. Poor defense taxes pitching, true, but the Tigers won 88 in 2012 regardless, and with Infante and Hunter added, the defense will unquestionably be better.

Now, since the only gateway to the playoffs from the AL Central would seem to be winning the division – and consider the “Astros Effect” this season, which could well send as many as 3 teams from the AL West to playoff spots – it would help and possibly behoove the Tigers to beat up on their divisional rivals, to the tune of 50-26, say. (They were 50-22 in 2011.) But is there really a correlation between how the Tigers fare in the division and how they finish in the standings? In a word, yes. From 2008 to 2012, Detroit has played very close to .500 ball outside the division each and every season (and something like .501 cumulatively). The divisional record has made the difference, best records corresponding exactly to best finishes. So, I’m counting on the Tigers to make the following happen:

DET 99-63 (let’s not get greedy)
KCR 85-77 (held back from glory only by those mean, mean Tigers)
CLE 83-79 (ah, my kingdom for a starting rotation)
MIN 79-83 (the Miracle Twins)
CHW 70-92 (sometimes standing pat bodes ill)

This (the part that counts, anyway) will require a 49-37 record against the rest of MLB. Doable? Imagine the Tigers blowing through Houston (7 games) and Miami (3 games), and yes, I think it is.

Your AL Central outlook and predictions?

2012 Season, AL Central, Links

2012: All Star Break (Updated)

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All right…a few notes before the HR derby.

– In case you’ve been under a rock the past 24 hours, JV is starting the AS game. Baseball tonight just ran a long feature on JV, he genuinely looks thrilled to get the nod. He joked that he doesn’t have to go 9, so no use holding anything back.

– Fielder is a favorite to win his 2nd HR derby crown, at 4-1 odds.

– Tigers pitchers set the record for Ks for the 1st half of a season, but Leyland said that he would prefer less strikeouts…considering the Tigers have the worst defense in the AL, I cringe at the thought of more balls in play. Strikeouts are the only sure out and are generally regarded around baseball as a good thing.

– The Tigers farm system was well represented in the Minor League All Star game last night as Nick Castellanos was the MVP going 3-4 with a homer… And Bruce Rondon turned a few heads when he hit 102 on the radar gun.

– Coming out of the break the Tigers start with a brutal 10 game road trip against Bal, LAA and CWS, and play 29 straight games against teams currently above .500. We’ll know in early August how good this team really is.

**********************************

Tuesday morning update…

This Leyland “less strikeouts” thing really has me frustrated with his ignorance of his team’s fielding deficiency. Here’s why (note, I made several assumptions below, but I think you’ll follow. Analyzing baseball is like studying economics; without assumptions, it’s hard to make a point):

– The Tigers have 715 Ks. The AL average is 625. If the Tigers’ K rate was average, that would mean 90 more balls in play.

– The substitutes for Ks would be Hits or Outs. I’m removing walks, HBP and BBs b/c of the deep pitch count that a K requires.

– The Tigers’ defensive efficiency is last in the league at .674. So roughly 33% of balls in play result in hits. 11.1% of those hits result in a HR, so that’s 3 additional runs, and 26 other hits. Using the Tigers’ current H_allowed/R_allowed ratio of 7.7/3.8, those additional 26 hits would result in another 13 runs. So Leyland’s asking for 16 more runs, not to mention all the additional ABs.

– Plug those 16 runs into James’ Pythagorean formula, and the Tigers record goes from 44-42 to 42-44. (Note, the Tigers are dead on for their X W-L right now.)

I just don’t get it.

2009 Season, AL Central

Perusing the AL Central

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The Tigers are welcoming back Jeremy Bonderman, but they aren’t the only team in the AL Central to be making some significant roster changes. Here’s a brief look at some intra-divisional goings on:

  • Fausto Carmona dominated the Tigers earlier this season. The Tigers have the distinction of being one of the few teams he’s dominated. He’s now been sent down to Rookie ball . The guy taking his place on the roster is fairly significant as it is Travis Hafner returning from injury. Hafner doesn’t have much of a breaking ball though so Tomo Ohka will take his place in the rotation for the time being
  • The Royals are losing on a regular basis now and are on the brink of 5th place. They hold a narrow half game lead over the Indians and the 2 teams will go head to head this week. That the Indians are hanging in despite having Grady Sizemore, Rafael Betancourt, Asdrubal Cabrera, Anthony Reyes, Scott Lewis, and I think Cory Snyder on the DL. And Jake Westbrook is expected back soon.
  • Speaking of the Royals they DFA’d Horacio Ramirez and have brought up Luke Hochevar. Too little too late?
  • The White Sox called up Gordan Beckham to try and provide some offense.
  • Taking a look at the standings, the Tigers are up 3.5 games over the second place team and 7 over the last team. So things are still tight. And if you look at the Indians, they’ve had to play 36 games against the AL East and only 3 against the AL West. Meanwhile the Tigers are 10 games over .500 against the West and 6 games under against the East.
  • The other thing that jumps out is the Twins record on the road. They are 7-18 away from the Metrodome.
2009 Season, AL Central

PECOTA hates the AL Central

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Baseball Prospectus has posted the first iterations of the 2009 PECOTA numbers and have forecasted the divisions based on projected playing time and roster construction. Because we care about the Tigers around these parts I jumped immediately to the AL Central:

CLE   84-79
MIN   79-83
DET   78-84
KAN   75-87
CHI   74-88

Wow. So the division is kind of up for grabs. Cleveland has a clear, but not insurmountable, edge (which seems correct intuitively also) and then a giant hodge-podge. As for being down on the division, it could be worse. The AL West is going to the A’s with 82 wins. The AL East has 4 teams at .500 or above, and the rest of the AL has 2.

As an aside, I realize that PECOTA harbors no animus towards specific players and/or teams. It is a sophisticated and yet emotionally devoid mathematical projection system. Neither it nor its creator have agendas.

The individual projections are subscriber only, but I will say that the system thinks Zach Miner will be a better pitcher than Armando Galarraga or Edwin Jackson. (And I don’t think that’s unreasonable)

2008 Season, AL Central

About that Verlander-Sabathia match-up

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For those of you looking forward to Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia locking horns (as if they were deer, what a dumb expression that is) on Tuesday night, you might have to settle for Justin Verlander and Jeff Weaver. That’s almost the same thing right? Sabathia has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for a passel of prospects including Matt Laporta. He’ll join the team and be successful in the next year or two and the Indians will lock him up through his arbitration years and then they’ll trade him in 2013 at the trade deadline for more prospects.

The Indians continue to transform the club with this coming after the Tribe DFA’d Joe Borowski. The AL Central continues to transform as well with Sabathia joining Johan Santana as southpaw Cy Young winners headed to the senior circuit.

2008 Season, AL Central, Injuries, Minors

A day of catch-up

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There was quite a bit of news that trickled out today so let’s roll through it.

Prospecting

It was a day of top 100 lists as both Kevin Goldstein (BP) and Keith Law released their lists. It used to be that looking at these lists was really depressing for Tigers fans. And then for a couple years it was really fun. And now, well let’s hope the big club keeps us from thinking about the minors too much.

Rick Porcello rated #11 on the Baseball Prospectus list. Keith Law isn’t as big of a fan, putting him at 22nd. Porcello was the lone Tigers farm hand on each list.

But at least it wasn’t because of the Tigers ineptitude. Former Tigers Cameron Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez appeared on both lists and Goldstein included Jair Jurrjens at number 86.

The injury bug

Injuries have plagued former prospect Tony Giarratano. At one time he was the Tigers top shortstop hope. A knee surgery and labrum surgery likely had sapped his defense – which was his strongest trait. A set back this spring ended his run as a Tiger. Detroit released him today.

It won’t effect the team too much, except for freeing up another roster spot (that’s 3 open spots now). Tony G had been passed by Cale Iorg, Danny Worth, and Mike Hollimon. I feel bad for Giarratano, but the truth is he probably shouldn’t have retained a spot on the roster this long.

D-Town baseball notes that keeping Giarratano cost the team Randor Bierd. T75 North tries to figure out how the middle infield situation might shake out.

Some leg soreness has kept Miguel Cabrera at DH on his Venezuelan team. Although a 10 for 22 playoff series seems to indicate it wasn’t effecting him too adversely. He won’t play in the championship round at the request of the Tigers.

Jones says Twins will be okay

I haven’t commented on the Santana deal yet, mostly because I’m waiting for it to be finalized (which I expect). But that didn’t stop Todd Jones. In his Sporting News column he’s confident that the Twins will be okay. And now he just wants C. C. Sabathia out of the division.

2007 Season, AL Central

Surging Central

A couple weeks back, on June 26th actually, I wrote that the claim of the AL Central being the toughest division in baseball is probably misguided. Since then the Central has been on a roll.

Through the games on the 19th this is what the Central has done:

	W	L
DET	12	6
CLE	12	8
MIN	11	10
CHI	13	9
KC	10	7

That’s a composite 58 and 40 record, good enough for and .591 winning percentage. And by definition, a good chunk of those wins had to come at the expense of the rest of the AL (if they were just playing each other it would be .500). In fact here’s how the Central fared against the rest of the league by team:

AL West	W	L
Oak	7	1
LAA	3	0
Sea	4	3
Tex	2	2
		
AL East	W	L
TB	10	1
Bos	6	1
Tor	3	4
Bal	3	5
NYY	1	3

And just to clarify, the AL Central teams beat Tampa 10 out of 11 tries. The bulk of the damage was done against the Devil Rays, the Athletics and the Red Sox.

So maybe the Central wasn’t looking strong earlier because they were beating up on each other? In any case, I think they can reclaim that whole toughest division title for the time being. They now sport the team with the best record in baseball, as well as the current wild card leader. And it’s not a top heavy division with the Twins over .500 and the White Sox and Royals merely being not good instead of awful.

Finally, one last table to look at and that is runs scored and runs allowed per game since June 25th in the Central.

	RS	RA
DET	4.9	4.2
CLE	5.4	5.3
MIN	5.0	3.9
CHI	5.3	5.2
KC	5.6	3.8

The Tigers for all the pub their offense has deservedly received has been the worst offense over this stretch. Mind you that they still averaged a hair under 5 runs per game. And look who is tops on both counts, none other than the Kansas City Royals.

2007 Season, AL Central, Previews

Previews and Predictions

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As we’re entering the final stretch of spring training, the 2007 predictions are starting to come with increasing regularity. Here’s what today revealed.

Simulatin’

The Replacement Level Yankee Weblog ran a series of Diamond Mind Simulations. He ran 1000 seasons using each of PECOTA, Marcel, Chone, Diamond Mind and ZiPS. I summarized how the tigers fared below:

I think it is safe to say that the ZiPS projections look to be the most realistic – kidding of course. The truth of the matter is, and I’ve been thinking this as I read all sorts of projections, all teams in the Central not from Kansas City have a legitimate shot at taking the division.

The composite of all 4 simulations have the Tigers 3rd in the division with 87.4 wins behind Cleveland with 88.3 and Minnesota 89.2. The sims weren’t quite as favorable to the White Sox with a projected 75.9 wins.

Sports Illustrated

A less stat/computer/geeky preview from the folks at SI have the Tigers coming in 2nd in the Central and ranked as the 5th best team in the American League. The scouting report is pretty standard citing the Tigers balance as a strength, and injury & last year’s pitcher workload as concerns.

Cranking Win Shares

While not a prediction system per se, the Baseball Crank takes a look at Established Win Share Levels for the AL Central. EWSL attempts to quantify the talent level on a team by looking at past performance and adjusting for age. The Tigers rank favorably because they are pretty solid top to bottom. The downside is that because of the age of the key players, the age adjustments are most unfavorable.

2007 Season, AL Central, Minors

AL Central now and in the future

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It’s kind of an American League Centric day. This morning I woke up to be greeted by Baseball Analysts annual Two on Two divisional preview of the Central. The hosts select two bloggers, this time it was Brian from Tigerblog and one of my favorite Twins bloggers (the Twins may have the best group of bloggers in baseball) Seth from Sethspeaks.net. The four couldn’t come up with a consensus, except for the Royals finishing last.

And over at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein takes a walk through the minor league systems of each of the five AL Central clubs. On a Tiger note he thinks Brent Clevlen could be an attractive bargaining chip for a midseason trade – especially if Cameron Maybin continues to impress.

2006 Season, AL Central

Tigers come home 5-1

3 Comments

It had to end sometime. The Tigers dropped their first game of the season, and their solo hold on first place. Detroit is now tied with Cleveland at 5-1, but I don’t really think anyone is complaining. The roadtrip saw far more positives than negatives.

Kenny Rogers was hit around, and balls seemed to be just out of reach of Tiger defenders instead of being tailor-made double plays that we’d seen in the first 5 games. The defense also committed their first charged error when Carlos Guillen couldn’t cleanly pick a grounder in the hole. Ramon Santiago, filling in for Placido Polanco also appeared to neglect to cover second base for a force out.

And Chris Shelton didn’t continue to do what Chris Shelton does. He was 0 for 4 with 3 strike-outs. His last 5 at-bats have been K-K-K-pop out-K. I guess a .700 batting average is a little too much to expect Big Red to sustain.

So out of all the positives that we witnessed on the road trip, what was the biggest for you? Was it Chris Shelton mashing? The Tigers offense clicking and cranking? An entire trip through the rotation where the starters picked up the wins? The debuts of Joel Zumaya and/or Jordan Tata, or Justin Verlander’s dominant performance?

Other stuff

  • John Sickels: Why I like Curtis Granderson

    Granderson was an outfielder at the University of Illinois-Chicago. I saw him play college ball and was impressed. He had a smooth swing, good command of the strike zone, and to me at least he looked like he had good tools, decent speed that helped him on the outfield and on the bases. The only tool that didn’t look at least average to me was his throwing arm.

    Granderson hit .483 with nine homers and 17 steals for Illinois-Chicago in ’02, ranking second to Rickie Weeks in the NCAA Division I batting hunt. So we had a guy with an excellent performance track record and good physical tools. I picked him in the second round of my Twins Shadow Draft. In real life, he went to the Tigers in the third round.
    He lasted until the third round because scouts didn’t like his tools. The word was that his speed and athleticism were mediocre, and that he wouldn’t hit for much power with wood. But that’s not what I saw in him. I saw a player with solid tools, a good measure of refinement, and a fine track record. He also had a good work ethic and was intelligent.

  • Don’t Count Fields out: A nice profile on former Tiger hitting coach Bruce Fields.