WOW. DD and Illitch came to play.

Hello DTW Friends –

Considering the hottest story of the past week has been regarding Tom Brookens resurrecting his career at coaching 3B, I think it’s safe to say that we are in a quiet period. Which is the opposite of how Tom Brookens is handling the promotion(?).

That said, I thought I’d put up a new thread to reset the comments, and to pass along a cool offer from AnyDate.com.

And now a word from our sponsor:

AnyDate.com specializes in providing you with unique sports gifts- especially those related to the famed Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper consists of 63-pages of commemorative New York Times headlines, articles & photographs about the Tigers. Celebrate all of the Tigers best plays, games, and series with this Detroit Tigers History Newspaper, which includes a special color section!

The Detroit Tigers History Newspaper is THE birthday or holiday gift for any true Tigers fan!

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And by sponsor, I mean that AnyDate.com is going to give away a free Detroit Tigers History Newspaper to DTW in return for the promotion. Thus, here’s how I’d like to select the winner – tell your best Tom Brookens memory – maybe you saw him at a game, maybe there’s a crazy George Brett/Wade Boggs -like story out there about him, or maybe he evokes a great Tigers memory. As everyone posts, chime in and vote for whose you like best, and then we’ll award the winner next week sometime.

By the way, if my wife is reading this, I’d love one of these. I’ll go ahead and give the Pistons a better chance of winning the NBA Championship this year.

Happy Holidays all – I doubt I’ll post again before the New Year unless something substantial happens. But I’ll definitely be reading along and posting when I have something to add (or need to remind TSE to stay on track).

(see what I did there? Tres? You can call me the blog post title Expert, if you’d like)

It’s been a while, so let’s get caught up on Free Agent news around the club. There hasn’t been much movement around Detroit, but some interesting things nonetheless.

I am fascinated by the Josh Hamilton situation. Living in Dallas, I can tell you that the club’s attitude towards him at the end of the season through now was definitely resentful, and bordered on disgust. His lack of effort, his massive August slump and his unappreciative comments angered many around here. It looks like that attitude leaked out to MLB in general and he’s not seeing the money he hoped he would. Jon Daniels makes smart decisions, so if they make Hamilton an offer, it will be at a level that the club feels he is worth, regardless of what the market says.

On to our Tigers…

This Rafael Soriano stuff is heating up. I know that we have Rondon waiting in the wings, but why not Soriano? Money is not an object here. Illitch is in a spend now to win now mindset, of which we should be very appreciative. I would love to see Soriano nailing down the 9th for us. Rondon will have his time. Tony Paul of Detroit News disagrees. By the way, where would Boras be without Illitch? About 1% less rich?

I think that many feel that Porcello is expendable if we sign Sanchez, but Dave Cameron argues that Porcello is poised for a breakout season (you’ll need insider). Cameron writes “He set career highs in both strikeout rate and ground ball rate in 2012, but even more encouragingly, his velocity jumped nearly 2 mph, and he was regularly topping out at 95 for the first time as a big leaguer. The improvement was masked by mediocre results, but those were primarily caused by a .344 batting average on balls in play, and considering how dreadful the Tigers’ defense was, that’s a number that is unlikely to be repeated with any other set of teammates. While his 4.59 ERA won’t blow you away, his 3.91 FIP suggests he was much better than his raw stats suggest.” (note – I find the insider subscription to be well worth it) Porcello will benefit more than anyone from a better middle infield…

So let’s talk about the middle infield for a bit. There have been rumors that the Arizona Diamonbacks whant Peralta. Not sure why (likely at 3B), but let’s assume that they are true and that the Tigers make a deal for Justin Upton. Then what do we do at SS? Some think that the Tigers may covet Stephen Drew. But Drew would likely be a downgrade defensively (especially after ankle surgery) and would definitely be worse offensively than Peralta. Some have suggested putting in Danny Worth and just sacrificing his spot in the lineup in return for the increased defense. This is not a bad idea. Runs shouldn’t be a problem in 2013, defense will. As we all know, the Tigers were one of the worst teams in the league at turning ground balls into outs, and Worth’s range at SS would be of significant value. There was a long insider article on ESPN yesterday which addressed the tigers middle infield problems, here are a few of the highlights:

• Infante and Peralta will both be 31 next season, they are likely to decline all the way around.
• “Infante’s .257/.283/.385 line in his two months in Detroit in 2012 didn’t even match that career-outside-of-Atlanta average. At the very least, Detroit can at least be confident in his fielding. As he has received more steady playing time at one position, his fielding performance has improved — he has been 18 runs above average over the past two years according to UZR — but even with two months of Infante’s good defense, the only team to get worse production out of its second basemen last season was the Orioles.”
• “If they are serious about winning whileMiguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are in their primes, it might make sense to use top prospect Nick Castellanos as trade bait to get an elite shortstop or second baseman. Castellanos’ natural position is third base, where he is blocked by Cabrera, so he could be expendable. While they can’t move Peralta to another position, Infante could easily go back to his super-sub role and have plenty of value there if they acquire a better second basemen.”

Boesch may be on the block, according to Jon Paul Morosi. I definitely think that Boesch is expendable, I just don’t see us getting much in return.

I think the real lynch pin is Garcia. If he’s the right fielder of the future, then there’s no spot for Justin Upton – whom I’m guessing the Tigers would go after in a Peralta to the DBacks deal. Though I would love to see the Tigers deal Boesch and Peralta for minor leaguers, and then run with Worth at SS. Here’s a potential lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. VMart, DH
6. Garcia, RF
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Worth, SS

Nice.

A few other notes:

– Remember how we acquired QBert and Darin Downs? Offseason minor league contracts. Just signed 19 more – including 2005 first round pick Trevor Bell.

– In case you missed it – the Tigers released some info on their World Series shares.

– Remember when the Tigers were in the World Series? Seems like forever ago.

Carrying over the previous thread (and this is over a few days, so some of the news is from Monday).

– Open letter to TSE, dude, you gotta start making some specific recommendations. You’re turning away readers. I implore you, suggest a few actual deals. Everyone who reads knows that I let just about anything go here, other than cursing, but I don’t want to lose readers. On the other hand, if you are one of my nemesis (or is that nemesi?) and this is an incredibly long and brilliant prank, bravo!

– Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted on Friday that the Tigers aren’t looking at Rafael Soriano, and that Rondon will have a crack at it come spring training. Early reports from the Venezuelan Winter League are strong.

– Sanchez’s price may be going up – apparently his first ask was $90M over 6, and his latest was $100M over 7, according to Jon Heyman.

– Torii Hunter is in Detroit right now and is saying all the right things. Looks like it’s between Detroit and Texas – and Hunter lives in Prosper, which is 20 miles north of Arlington. With all of his son’s troubles, I would think that he wants to be closer to home, but hopefully we’ll see him roaming left in Comerica next year. Hunter’s presence in the clubhouse could really help with all of the young OFers we have (I think that Berry is the oldest who will make the roster next year, no?).

– Lynn Henning thinks that the Tigers might flip Peralta to AZ (where he could play 3B) and that Worth should get the shot at SS. Replacing Rayburn/Boesch/Young in the lineup will definitely allow us to sacrifice some O for D next year.

A few other notes:

– The Freep is putting out a book on the 2012 season – could be a nice stocking stuffer for the Tigers fan with average expectations on your list.

– Cabrera and Fielder won Silver Slugger awards last week.

– FanGraphs takes a look at Avila and wonders if 2011, or 2012, was the aberration.

Not to make money.

The fallout from the Prince Fielder bomb has been full of back row Joes claiming that this was a terrible signing by the Tigers and forecasting that the Tigers will rue the day they set up Prince Fielder’s off-springs’ off-springs for life.  The fatal flaw that I find with these numbers-based analysts is the assumption that the Tigers are concerned about winning later.

Actually, I see four key assumptions, any of which, if untrue, make the criticisms irrelevant.

1) That Management is concerned with the payroll in 2016-2020.  There is no doubt that the Fielder contract will likely prove to be imprudent during the last 4 years of the deal.  But maybe management does not care.  Dombrowski has made it clear that the Tigers are trying to win right now.  Fielder gives them the best chance to do that, fielding issues be damned (did you know that the Yankees teams of the 2000s had some of the worst infields in the history of the play-by-play era (1951 – )?…and all they did was win 4 pennants and 2 World Series titles).  This is a five year deal, where the Tigers will happen to keep the player for the final four.

Or, there is always possibility of trading Fielder if his salary becomes an unbearable burden. The Rangers did it with ARod and they came out okay.

To be honest, I’m sure that management does care (though to what extent?  I mean, if DD doesn’t win a WS, he probably won’t be here in 5 years, so what does he care?…and if he does, he will have won a WS within the last 5 years, so what does he care?) about financial repercussions in the last half of this decade, but that to-do is well, well below many others on a list which I imagine begins with “Win a World Series.”  Mike Illitch is now 82 years old and it looks like he has made winning a WS his main MO.  But thank you Mike for making $5 Hot-N-Ready’s your last main MO.  I’m serious.

2) That Fielder could have been signed for less.  Someone was going to sign Fielder.  And I can not imagine any scenario where he was signed for less than 6 years, and likely not less than 8.  In fact, it’s likely the 9 years, not the annual salary, which lured Fielder to Detroit like a free donuts sign.  I watched one of the guys on MLB Network the night of the deal do a long piece on WAR and how much the Tigers would pay per Fielder’s win during the last half of the deal.  Sure, I get the numbers (more below), and I understand why Fielder is likely to decline precipitously from his MVP caliber production in a few years.  But what many have failed to address is the impossibility of getting Fielder now for a shorter contract.  And if assumption #3 below is not true, then the dollar cost per win is irrelevant.

3) That the Tigers are Mike Illitch wants to make money on an annual basis.  Despite winning the NBA title, and enjoying the accompanying extra gate revenues and apparel sales, the Dallas Mavericks lost $3.9M last year, and Cuban claims that the Mavs have made money in only 2 out of the 11 seasons that he has owned the team.  Sure, the value of the Mavs franchise is increasing, but using a purchase price of $285M, and a Forbes current value of $497M, that’s a return of 5%.  Hardly worth it taking into account the annual losses and the opportunity cost of Cuban’s capital, though I’m sure his accountants find a good spot for the losses.

Mike Illitch bought the Tigers in ’92 for $82M.  Forbes valued the franchise at $385M last year, which provides a nice 8% return for Illitch, though there have been several, if not mostly, money losing seasons.  But that’s the point, Mr. I doesn’t care.  He wants to win, he wants to win now, and we’re lucky to have him as the Tigers owner.

4) That the Tigers would have spent the money elsewhere.  The sharpest criticism seems to come from WAR calculations.  The accepted salary per marginal win around MLB is roughly $4M. Thus, at ~$24M per year, the Tigers need Fielder to come in with a WAR of 6 each year. Something he’s done only once in his career.  But, this assumes that the Tigers are using their dollars to buy marginal wins.  They aren’t.  They are simply buying wins, irrespective of a value they could have bought elsewhere.

To no one’s surprise, Dave Cameron at Fan Graphs wrote a thoughtful and informative piece shortly after the signing.  But I did take exception to the point he made at the end which suggested that the Tigers had to “vastly overpay” to get Fielder.  Vastly overpay according to whom?  Cameron operates in a world where FanGraphs stats set player values, but that’s simply not the case.  Pundits, bloggers and bar economists argue all the time what the right values are. But here’s what I think – REAL LIFE TRANSACTIONS SET VALUES FOR SUPERSTARS.   While I do believe that lesser tier players with paltry demand get offers based on numbers promulgated by the likes of FanGraphs, this is not the case for players who are in high demand. When resources are scarce, price goes up.  Prince Fielder represents the scarcest of resources. Thus, the reality of it is that Fielder was worth what a team was willing to pay him.  To get Fielder now, a long-term, expensive deal, was the price.  And there were at least 2 serious other suitors, if not more.  It’s not that the Tigers overpaid, but rather the Rangers and Nationals under bid.  And in light of the Pujols deal, the Fielder deal was spot on, maybe even a bargain.  I wish someone would develop a super-star factor and build that into their player value calculations.

Cameron also surmised that the Tigers should have spent the $214M on CJ Wilson and Jose Reyes instead of on Fielder.  Again, I get that Cameron has to stick to his guns, but not a single person even thought about the Tigers + CJ Wilson until Cameron used CJ because the numbers fit his point.

A final note about the infield – I don’t believe for a minute that Cabrera will be the everyday third baseman.  Sure, he’s likely to take more starts there than anyone else, but with the way that Leyland tinkers with his lineups, I expect Cabrera to start about 60 games at 3B, 50 games at 1B, 40 games at DH, and a handful in RF.  I think we’ll see Inge at 3B when Fister and Porcello start, and lots of late inning substitutions.  Remember, when Cabrera does start at 3rd, this will have a greatly desired consequence of keeping Brandon Inge out of the line-up, and further amplify the Fielder run production benefit.

ESPN is reporting $3M, up to $6M with incentives.  A little high on the salary in my mind, but if he gets to $6M, it will be well worth it.  I think this is a great pickup, and fills out the rotation nicely.

Penny sports a respectable career ERA of 4.11, and his best year was in 2007 when he went 16-4.  He’s been below average since then, though he has been plagued by injuries.  Further analysis coming tonight.

MORE:

Penny is a fastball/curveball guy who has pretty good heat, but not a great secondary pitch. Thanks to Dave Duncan, he began refining his splitter last season and seemed to be having good success with it until his injury.  Dave Cameron covered this beautifully last April on Fangraphs. His critics will argue that his velocity has decreased (it hasn’t) and that he gets beat up by AL pitching.  Yes, he had an unusually high BABIP against of .336 with Boston on ’09, where he was released towards the end of the season, but he quickly bounced back with a stellar stretch run for the Giants that year, going 4-1 with a .96 WHIP and 2.59 ERA.  I’m not ready to call his high BABIP and resulting high ERA an AL problem.  2010 started good until he got injured again (while batting this time, I think). If he can keep the ball down, he’ll do just fine in Comerica.

In other news, Raburn signed a two-year deal today worth $3.4M, avoiding salary arbitration.  This is a nice bump from the $440k he made last year, but he’ll still have two more years of arb eligibility after this deal expires.   Looks like a win-win.  But remember that Raburn will be 30 in April…if he’s not effective as a full-time player this year, he likely will never be.

Zumaya and Galarraga are still lingering, though DD has yet to go to arbitration with anyone during his tenure.  I’d expect them to be signed soon, as the arb hearings usually take place in late January or early February.

1 year, $10M.  I love it.

– Freep reports that Maggs turned down 2 year offers (via Jon Heyman’s twitter feed) elsewhere.  Not sure how much those were for.

– Tom Gage breaks down the payroll implications.

I love the 1 year commitment.  If he does well, we’ll overpay for another year, but we don’t have to do that now.

Jackson
Raburn
Maggs
Cabrera
Martinez
Guillen
Peralta
Inge
Rhymes

I can deal with Inge as a #8, maybe a #9 if Rhymes starts to hit.