Category Archives: Free Agents

Rumors and Rumblings – Closer Edition

Peter Gammons latest offering (which is now Insider – damn ESPN) has some rumors about the Tigers pursuit of bullpen help. Actually, the article isn’t about that at all, but it does mention the Tigers.

Among the rumblings are that Bob Howry turned down $13.5 million from the Tigers to sign with the Cubs for $12 million over 3 years. Gammons also has sources speculating that the Tigers and Indians had offered 4 year deals to BJ Ryan (who signed for 5 years with the Blue Jays). However, my sources indicate that while Ryan was wined and dined and toured the Birmingham area he left town without an offer from the Tigers. (I know I don’t frequently have sources, but I believe my information to be pretty solid here).

I had hoped that the Tigers would be able to land Kyle Farnsworth. However, it appears that he will be a Yankee (I know, another subscription site) for 3 years and $17 million. The report states that the Tigers were among several teams who had offered 3/15. Given the price of relief pitching, that actually seems affordable.

The Tigers need to bolster their bullpen. I’m not giving up on Fernando Rodney as closer, but they need more talent before Rodney (or whoever the closer becomes) even gets the ball.

Tigers miss on BJ Ryan

One of the Tigers’ free agent targets, BJ Ryan is headed to Toronto. New York Daily News reports that Ryan will get $47 million over the next 5 years. We’ll see if this increases the Tigers’ urgency, or price for Kyle Farnsworth. Whether or not the Tigers’ get a true closer isn’t as important as getting more quality arms in the bullpen. Fernando Rodney certainly wasn’t consistent as a closer last year, but the bullpen woes weren’t all because of a lack of a true closer.

I’m not sure that a 5 year contract would have been in the Tigers best interest anways, but if I were to give any available closer 5 years, Ryan would be my choice.

Farnsworth speculation

There is an interesting post on the Atlanta Journal Constitutions Braves blog today. The bulk of the post is about Rafael Furcal’s likely destination (unfortunately probably not Detroit), but it also mentioned Kyle Farnsworth.

“Regarding the Braves? other biggest-name free agent, Kyle Farnsworth: The Braves are interested in keeping him, but only if he?s affordable. His last team before Atlanta, the Detroit Tigers, might be the only team willing to give Farnsworth anything close to what he hopes to get, because not many teams seem to be looking at him as a closer; rather, they see him as a setup guy and possible closer.

Magg Wheels

With the Tigers interest in Magglio Ordonez, and the confusion over the status of his knee, I wanted to at least get a handle on the chronology of the injury. Below are excerpts from Baseball Prospectus’ Under the Knife report. UTK is written by Will Carroll who has turned himself into the source for baseball injury information.

May 20th

Willie Harris left Wednesday’s game after a collision with Magglio Ordonez. Ordonez also left the game. No report on either player at deadline


May 27th

Ordonez has a moderate strain of his left calf. The injury has been connected to his collision with Willie Harris last week, but it’s unclear if the injury is the result of the collision or a compensation injury after it. Ordonez isn’t a candidate for the DL at this point, but watch his power numbers; if they drop off, it might be a sign that he’s unable to block with his front leg.


June 3rd

I’m not sure if he’s really underrated or just underexposed, but either way he’s a heck of a ballplayer when healthy. Ordonez was sent for a second opinion from Dr. Lewis Yocum on Wednesday. The results must not have looked good since trainer Herm Schneider opened up the possibility of surgery. Ordonez is not yet on the DL, but a retro move is likely. The White Sox had been very patient, hoping that Ordonez could avoid the List, but even if he can avoid surgery he’s going to need the recovery time.

June 4th

Oh…Magglio Ordonez. That’s a different story. He’s the best player on a division-leading team, so news that he’s likely to head under the knife is never a good thing. Ordonez has a significant problem that instead of being his calf is now being reported as a meniscal tear. This would make the pain in his calf something radiating from an entrapped nerve, called “referred pain.” This type of pain is often extremely difficult to diagnose and would certainly explain the confusion of the last few days. If surgery is called for, Ordonez would have it immediately on Friday with team doctors. The rehab would likely take four-to-six weeks, but an All-Star break return looks possible.

June 28th

Ordonez is a few weeks away from returning after knee surgery, but it’s a predictable return.

July 8th

The good news for the Sox is that they will soon get their best player back on the field. Magglio Ordonez will take a quick, low-minor rehab assignment during the ASB and is expected back when the team begins playing again.

July 26th

Bone marrow edema isn’t a diagnosis heard every day. In baseball, it’s now a singular event, afflicting Magglio Ordonez, who just returned from knee surgery. Also called “transient osteoporosis,” the edema is not just a short-term problem for the Sox’ outfielder, it’s also bad in the long-term; BME is a predictor of serious arthritis, gait imbalances, and increased risk for fractures near the affected bones. It’s not good for the White Sox, for Ordonez, or Ordonez’s agent, but it’s not life-threatening, as some have feared. It could be managed in a way that could allow Ordonez back on the field, but as there is nothing with which to compare this, I have no way of putting a timeline on it.

September 23rd

It’s hard to tell what is medical fact and what is negotiation tactic in the case of Magglio Ordonez. The complicating factor of impending free agency gives both parties–player/agent and team–reason to present their spin rather than the facts. Worse, Ordonez’s condition is one that has not only not been seen in baseball, the doctors and trainers with whom I’ve spoken haven’t seen it in sports. So, we’re dealing with an unknown but potentially serious condition, a rehabbing knee that is months behind schedule, and contentious salary negotiations in their last weeks. In other words, absent a miracle, even my best sources really don’t know what the future holds for Ordonez. This is a classic “buyer beware” situation with upside.

September 24

The he-said/he-said continued between Magglio Ordonez and White Sox GM Ken Williams. As I stated yesterday, we’re dealing with a contentious negotiation, a GM who many have speculated is on the hot seat, and a player dealing with an injury that has not been seen in baseball. Everything must be taken in context, though there is little to give us that needed context. Ordonez asserts that he is healthy, but until he hits the field at some point and demonstrates this, we simply cannot know. Ordonez’s comments must give some optimistic spin to what we know; again, we just don’t have enough information. I hope to have more substantial information on this early next week.

October 19th

Sources with medical knowledge of the Magglio Ordonez situation tell me that Ordonez’s knee is neither as bad nor as good as current news would have you believe. The problem was finally given a solid diagnosis, which includes a second meniscal tear and a reason for the bone edema, giving him a good treatment plan. Ordonez won’t be 100% in December as suggested, though there’s reason to believe that he could be ready for spring training without restriction


November 16th

Your guess is as good as mine. Assurances from agents don’t comfort me much, so until I see Ordonez run, I’ll treat him as injured. This is the ultimate risk for a team: a Scott Boras client with an injury that hasn’t been seen in professional sports. Healthy, he’s an elite level player. I think a bold GM will be rewarded by signing Ordonez.


December 2nd

Knee surgery led to a bone marrow edema, an injury not often seen, let alone seen in baseball players. A second surgery, performed in Austria, has reportedly cleared up the problem. Knee surgery is nearly routine now, so any complication such as the edema is rare. Ordonez was unable to return and now faces questions about his ability to return to his previous performance level. That makes teams reluctant to sign big checks.
Ordonez is reported to have a workout planned for teams during the winter meetings. If he can perform normal baseball activities, there’s little reason to believe he won’t return to his previous levels. Even if he’s not fully healed now, he still has months to go before he needs to be on the field. Add in that Ordonez was not a speed player or rangy outfielder prior to the injury, and the effect is minimal. While knee injuries do have a tendency to recur and need occasional maintenance, there’s no reason to believe that, even if surgery became necessary, the edema or other complications would arise again. A team would be smart to get Ordonez in a room prior to the workouts; if he can walk normally now, sign him. Sometimes you don’t need all the information, just enough to make an informed decision.


December 9th

His knee injuries have been documented both here and elsewhere. About all we don’t know is how he is. A planned workout by Ordonez in Anaheim has been scrapped because Scott Boras feels he’s close enough to a deal that the workout is unnecessary. Enough people have seen the medical records that some team is likely to try to make a move. This is a deal that could well happen this weekend.

January 24th

After a winter of signal silence, facts are finally starting to come out about Magglio Ordonez’s health status. Ordonez had a second knee surgery in Austria, but only secondary to sound-wave treatments on his damaged knee. While the surgery was routine, the sound-wave therapy is controversial. The treatment, similar to those used on kidney stones and plantar fasciitis, is not approved for use in the U.S. Despite reports that his Austrian physician has signed off on Ordonez to return to activity, he has still not yet worked out for any team. I remain hopeful, but he’s a sure red-flag type until he demonstrates he’s healthy.

In summary, it started with a collision. Leg pain prompted further examination where a meniscus tear was identified. Ordonez underwent surgery in June to correct the problem. Typically rehab for this type of procedure is 4 to 6 weeks. All reports are in agreement up to this point.

Various reports indicate that the bone marrow edema was a side effect of the surgery. On 1270AM Scott Boras stated that the edema was the result of Ordonez’s aggressive rehab schedule compounded by the fact that there was another undetected meniscus tear. Boras went onto explain that Ordonez traveled to Austria to see Wolfgang Schaden, and that Schaden repaired the meniscus (Boras equated it to going to the dentist). Boras then said that the edema resolved itself.

Other reports by people who aren’t Ordonez’s agent say that while there was another tear, the reason for the trip was to receive the controversial shock treatment for the edema.

I wish I could tell you more about what the prospects are for a player with bone marrow edema. Unfortunately as Carroll documented there is nobody to compare him to. Studies at Johns Hopkins have indicated that BME is a predictor for osteoarthritis. Other than that I can’t tell you a whole lot.

Ordonez…tempering expectations

While I took a look at Ordonez back in December, with the Tigers recent interest in him, I decided to take a second look. At the time, I thought he’d be a decent gamble if the Tigers could work out a fair deal and protect themselves in the event the knee becomes a chronic problem. However, after a closer look I think the knee might not be the biggest cause for concern.

There is no denying that Ordonez has been a great hitter thus far in his career, and until this past season he has been healthy. He’s a perennial .300 hitter, 30 homer, 100 RBI guy. This career OPS+ is certainly impressive. However, it is important to remember the park that Ordonez has done most of his damage. US Cellular is the easiest park in the majors to hit home runs in. Using park factors from Bill James 2005 Handbook, from 2002-2004 it was 31% easier to hit home runs in US Cellular than a typical park. During that same span Ordonez has hit 60% of his homers in his home park, and his OPS is 83 points higher at home.

Now transfer that production over to Comerica park. A place where it is 14% harder to hit homers than your typical park. It just wouldn’t be realistic to expect Ordonez to meet his career production.

The other factor is that Ordonez is past his peak seasons. I’m not saying that he is past the point of producing, but a dropoff due to age wouldn’t be out of the ordinary.

For fun, I went to Baseball Reference and took advantage of their similarity scores. I looked at the 10 most similar players to Ordonez through age 29. (I used 29 instead of 30 because last season wasn’t really representative of his production). I then looked at how those same players did from age 31 on. I’ve consolidated the information into the table below:
Comp Table

Of the 6 comp players who have retired, they average out to 4 years and an OPS+ of 104. Dave Parker went on to play 10 more years, but aside from a sensational season at age 34 (148 OPS+) he was basically an above average player. Tim Salmon has continued to be productive, albeit inconsistently. Raul Mondesi is well, Raul Mondesi. This doesn’t mean that Ordonez will follow the same path, but it does paint a discouraging picture.

In all fairness, if you take a look at the comps for the most similar players through age 30, things look better for Ordonez. A handful of the players change, and among those that have retired they average 6 years and an OPS+ of 112. Larry Walker also gets added to the list, and he would definitely boost the average production of the group.

I’m not against signing Ordonez. However, given the fact that Boras asking price (thanks to MotownSports for the link)seems to be based on a level of production built in a very hitter friendly park it seems that he will be too expensive. It sounds like he is looking in the neighborhood of $50 million. Given Dombrowski’s reluctance to hurt the team with ridiculous contracts I’d be surprised if Dombrowski would sign him at that price. This is especially true because they won’t be able to insure him given his knee complications.

Tigers sign Percival

Well it didn’t take long for the Tigers to get the ball rolling. One of their biggest areas of need was the bullpen, and even if you think Troy Percival is on the downside of his career and the Tigers paid too much, their bullpen is better for it. Of course the downside is that the Tigers now have $10 million invested in two guys in the bullpen. The common thought is that Urbina will be dealt, however I could see the Tigers keeping him and moving him to the set up role. Also, given Percival’s health concerns, and the kidnapping situation in Venezuela it might not be bad to keep both around.

As for Percival, he became expendable with the emergence of Francisco Rodriguez who is better and cheaper for the Angels. The main reason to not like this deal for the Tigers is that Percival’s strikeout rate has plummeted the last 3 years. In 2002 it was 10.9, and then 8.8 in ’03, and it fell to 6.0 last year. The other big knock is that he was diagnosed with a degenerative hip in 2003.

Now that we’ve gotten the two big negatives out of the way, here comes the positive. Even with his drastically reduced K-rate last year, he was still better than any pitcher the Tigers had in their bullpen. According to Baseball Prospectus’ runs prevented, Percival prevented 7.1 more runs than an average pitcher. Last year Jamie Walker prevented 6.7, and the next closest was Esteban Yan at 3.4. Al Levine (.3) and Urbina (.7) were the only other Tiger relievers with postive RP’s. Now 7.1 RP probably doesn’t justify $12 million over two year, but it improves the bullpen.

Because nearly half of the Tigers’ games are against division foes, it’s worth looking at Percival’s performance against the Central. Here are his numbers over the last 3 years.

Opponent ERA	  G      IP    H   R   ER  HR   BB  SO        AVG
vs. CHW	5.68	  7	6.1    9   4   4   1    2  10	0.321
vs. CLE	1.29	  7	7      5   4   1   2    3   7	0.192
vs. KAN	0.84	  11	10.2   5   1   1   0    4  11	0.143
vs. MIN	0.00	  9	8.1    7   2   0   0    6   9	0.226

While he’s struggled against the White Sox, he’s fared quite well agsint the other 3 divisional opponents. Combine this with the fact that the Indians were also in the market for a closer, and it looks like Percival might be a good idea.

Other reasons I like this are because Dombrowski managed to cut Percival’s free agent tour short. Instead of the Tigers being a last resort for guys, Detroit has actually become a place to consider. While the Tigers may have overpaid based on Percival’s performance, I’m not so sure they overpaid compared to what the market will yield. That’s also a difference from last year.

The other reason I’m kind of excited about this signing, is that I think it might signal that Illitch is ready to win now. The Tigers’ aren’t looking for value, they are looking to get better. While I’m not crazy about signing Jeff Kent and displacing Infante to the left side of the infield it would bolster the offense. With the Kent discussions and the Percival signing it seems like the Illitch is looking to win in the next two years as opposed to building a team for the future. This could be like the summer that the Wings acquired Hasek, Hull, and Robitaille. This could be what Illitch promised Pudge last year. This could be the year the Tigers stop thinking like a small market team and the payroll surpasses $80 million. I know I’m making a large jump based on one meeting and one signing, but this could be the year the Tigers make the leap.