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DTW News and Notes 4-14-13

A few notes to get you through the off-day.

Interesting Numbers:

1: number of errors thus far by the Tigers (Scherzer’s missed pickoff, which may have cost us a W)

1: number of hits by a right-handed hitter off of Anibal Sanchez this season.

5: number of saves by Jason Grilli this year. Here is his line this year: 6 games, 5 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 7 Ks, 0.00 ERA 1.06 WHIP. The Tigers pen is posting a chunky 5.59 ERA with 2 saves, 3 blown saves, and a 1.54 WHIP.

17: number of runs scored by AJax, tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th with 12.

19: Number of RBI by Fielder, tied for tops in the Majors. Cabrera is 4th wih 13.

.307: Tigers team BA. OPS is .796, behind the Yankees (.816) and A’s (.808 – imagine what it was on Friday). Lee Panas explains the low-ish OPS here.

1.361: 2nd-best OPS in the Majors, owned by Fielder. But he’s not even the top 1B in the AL…(Chris Davis – 1.362).

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– Rondon has allowed 1 hit, walked 2 and struck out 3 in 4 scoreless innings thus far this year.

– Valverde has really ingratiated himself with his Lakeland teammates.

Happy New Year!

Hello Friends – I hope that everyone had a happy and healthy holiday season.

I’ve got a few stories of interest that I plan to post below, but first, I’d like to ask if anyone out there would like to help with the game posts this year. We could use one, maybe two more. Assuming we get the help, that will allow us to put up more than just game posts during the season. If you’re interested – just note it in a comment and I’ll email you off-line.

Secondly, I’d like to raise some money to re-vamp the site. DTW is awesome already, mostly due to the in-depth discussions (seriously, you ever see the comments elsewhere?), but there’s no doubt that a redesign taking advantage of some of the latest technology could improve things a bit. I need to get with billfer on this, so no timetable yet, but hopefully soon. In the meantime, know that an ask is coming. If any of you are developers/designers (it’s a WordPress site), let me know.

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On to our Tigers.

P&Cs hasn’t yet been released, but spring training opens up against the Braves on February 22nd… In the meantime, check out Dan Dickerson’s weekly 1 hour radio show to suppress your excitement for another 7 weeks.

Alan Trammell was my favorite Tiger growing up, and remains in my short list of favorite athletes of all time. I think this is probably the case for many Generation X Tiger fans. I used to get worked up about his HoF credentials, but those had largely subsided, until Matt Snyder of CBS Sports reignited the flame. His article names Trammell and Whitaker as the greatest double play combo of all time (using combined baseball-reference WAR), and it’s not even close; and then points out that they are the only non-active duo on his list where at least one of the tandem is not in the Hall of Fame.

I’m excited about Bruce Rondon, but you know, Brian Wilson is out there. Yeah, Tommy John recovery and all, but for the right price? What do you think? I’m on the fence. I can think of worse ways to spend money, and his gimp prank is legendary, but I think we can go to Dotel or Benoit if Rondon doesn’t work out.

Good luck Bondo. I’m sure you’ll strike out Avisail Garcia with a lefty on the bench in mid-June to clinch a W for the Ms.

Delmon Young = Jeff Francouer?

FanGraphs posted their top 15 organizational prospects last week.

 

2012: All Star Break (Updated)

All right…a few notes before the HR derby.

– In case you’ve been under a rock the past 24 hours, JV is starting the AS game. Baseball tonight just ran a long feature on JV, he genuinely looks thrilled to get the nod. He joked that he doesn’t have to go 9, so no use holding anything back.

– Fielder is a favorite to win his 2nd HR derby crown, at 4-1 odds.

– Tigers pitchers set the record for Ks for the 1st half of a season, but Leyland said that he would prefer less strikeouts…considering the Tigers have the worst defense in the AL, I cringe at the thought of more balls in play. Strikeouts are the only sure out and are generally regarded around baseball as a good thing.

– The Tigers farm system was well represented in the Minor League All Star game last night as Nick Castellanos was the MVP going 3-4 with a homer… And Bruce Rondon turned a few heads when he hit 102 on the radar gun.

– Coming out of the break the Tigers start with a brutal 10 game road trip against Bal, LAA and CWS, and play 29 straight games against teams currently above .500. We’ll know in early August how good this team really is.

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Tuesday morning update…

This Leyland “less strikeouts” thing really has me frustrated with his ignorance of his team’s fielding deficiency. Here’s why (note, I made several assumptions below, but I think you’ll follow. Analyzing baseball is like studying economics; without assumptions, it’s hard to make a point):

– The Tigers have 715 Ks. The AL average is 625. If the Tigers’ K rate was average, that would mean 90 more balls in play.

– The substitutes for Ks would be Hits or Outs. I’m removing walks, HBP and BBs b/c of the deep pitch count that a K requires.

– The Tigers’ defensive efficiency is last in the league at .674. So roughly 33% of balls in play result in hits. 11.1% of those hits result in a HR, so that’s 3 additional runs, and 26 other hits. Using the Tigers’ current H_allowed/R_allowed ratio of 7.7/3.8, those additional 26 hits would result in another 13 runs. So Leyland’s asking for 16 more runs, not to mention all the additional ABs.

– Plug those 16 runs into James’ Pythagorean formula, and the Tigers record goes from 44-42 to 42-44. (Note, the Tigers are dead on for their X W-L right now.)

I just don’t get it.

Off Day Thoughts

– We’re 1/4 of the way through the season. Let’s hope that was our worst quarter.

– Miguel Cabrera is 4th on the team in OPS at .850, just behind Fielder at .851. Austin Jackson leads the team at .958, slightly ahead of…Andy Dirks at .954. The rest of the Tigers are comfortably below what would be considered average for a Major Leaguer.

– Warning – Jackson is at a .388 on balls in play. That should regress to around .350 (he’s higher than league average b/c of his speed), though it never dropped in 2010.

– A lot of people thought that JV would take a slight step back after his sterling MVP/Cy Young season last year. He’s actually posting a higher K rate, a lower WHIP, a lower ERA, a lower walk rate, and a lower HR rate than 2011.

– Even though Yu Darvish is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 2.23 K/BB, I think that Drew Smyly has out pitched him – 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.38 K/BB.

– FanGraphs finished up their radio broadcaster rankings. The vast majority of the baseball that I follow is over the airwaves, so these were incredibly entertaining to me. Dickerson and Price came in at a respectable 13th, though I think that they could have been a little higher. Respondents seem to love Dickerson, but to be lukewarm towards Price. Correctly so, the Yankees and White Sox came in last and 2nd to last, respectively. The voter comments are hilarious, I definitely recommend reading all of the articles.

News and Notes: 4.25.11

– Lee Panas, who runs a great Tigers blog and comments here from time to time, ran some numbers on the low offensive output in the AL thus far this year, and reasons for it.

– Lincecum had some real gems on baseball playoff expansion.  His contention that adding a team or two means that Selig doesn’t “worry about [players] as human beings or players” has a CSR that is off the charts.  Teixeira isn’t much better, introducing the idea of doing it “American Idol” style.  I’m not sure what this means.  Personally, I think it would be great for the game.  An article from Friday on FanGraphs proposed an alternative solution, but ultimately concluded that baseball will add a 1 game playoff  for the two wild-card teams (long post, but a good read).

JV’s WHIP this year is .97, and his K/9 is 8.75.

– An Indians fan and pretty sharp freshman wrote a blog the other day charting payroll correlation to wins.  To conclude, there is a definite correlation, but it is far from 1.

– The week ahead – King Felix v. Coke on Tues, Bedard v. JV on Wed, Pineda v. Penny on Thurs, Scherzer at TBD on Friday.

– Finally, the good folks at www.anydate.com have agreed to give out a Tigers History Newspaper as a way to get their name out.  So what we’ll do is have some sort of contest tomorrow centered on the game.  Check back around 3 hours before opening pitch for the deets.

News and Notes: Hip Hip…Opening Day

Lots of chatter out there concerning our Tigers, here are a few good reasons to procrastinate today:

Lynn Henning gives his player by player projections.

Freep writers predict anywhere from a 1st to 3rd place finish for 2011.

– Brad Penny had this to say about Verlander – “That might be the best spring I’ve ever seen out of a pitcher,” Penny said.  (As reported by Tom Gage.)  This got picked up by Buster Olney on ESPN insider today.

– stltoday.com had a great, in-depth article about Scherzer yesterday.  At least one Czar thinks Scherzer is poised to become an All-Star this year.

Remember to like our posts on Facebook, let’s get the word out.

Three more days.

News and Notes: 3.18.11

– In case you are not following along, Cabrera is mashing to the tune of .357/.391/.714 for an OPS of 1.105.  I’m guessing his OBP could be higher, but he’s swinging to get into shape.

– Benoit has looked very good with a .71 WHIP and 10Ks in 7 IP.

– Valverde has 4 BBs in 7 IP.  Not good.  Perry has 5 in 8 IP.  Schlereth had 4 in 4 batters.  That beard can’t be helping.

– Coke has looked pretty good this spring, but he’s concerned about the velocity on his fastball.  So am I.

– After the Porcello and Perry regressions, it looks like the Tigers are going to take it slow with Jacob Turner.  Good plan.

– Leyland has decided that Guillen and Zumaya will stay in Florida for the start of the season.  Anyone want to take the under on May 15 as the first date that either will appear?

News and Notes: 3.10.11

– That’s two days in a row now that young Tiger hitters have come up to the plate in the bottom of the 9th as the tying or go ahead run, both times with the bases loaded, and then watched 3 straight called strikes hum by.  (Worth on Tues, Sizemore on Wed).

Fangraphs had an interesting post on the Tigers’ rotation a few days ago.   The author, Ben Nicholson-Smith, questions DD’s decision to add depth to the starting rotation.

– 40 IPs for Zumaya might be a little much, as it looks like he won’t be ready for the opener.  We’ve seen this before.  Beck posted some of Leyland’s thoughts about heading into the season without Zumaya in the pen.

– The Cabrera video has been released.  I’m staying away from it, but it’s big news today.

News and Notes: 2.9.11

– Can you play 2B?  GIve it a shot.

– At least someone thinks 2010 1st half Brennan Boesch is the real BB.

– Check out this interview with Patrick Leyland, son of Ol’ Smokey.  I really enjoyed the part about Paws being a better manager than JL (it may have been removed by the time you get to it).

Henning’s column title today caught my eye – the Tigers need a big bat?  I’m pretty sure the boys are aware of several other pressing needs.  But a full read reveals that Henning is looking for one of the guys we already have to step up.

– I’m really, really into this Michael Young thing.  Full post on him coming tomorrow.

News and Notes: 2.2.11

Dombrowski stated yesterday that neither Bondo nor Vlad Guerrero would be pursued any further (if they were at all).  Looks like Bondo is going to end up in…Cleveland, according to MLB.com.

– Lynn Henning put together his list of the top 50 prospects within the organizations.  Jacob Turner is #1.

– The 2011 predictions are starting to roll in, and while most outlets think the Central will be a tight race, most of them have the Tigers losing out to the White Sox and Twins.

– Great article on Fangraphs last week discussing Galarraga and his (slim) chances of success in the NL.

– FYI – Don Kelly and Brad Thomas are out of options.

News and Notes: 1.28.11

– Keith Law wasn’t very complimentary of the Tigers’ farm system, ranking it 25th in the majors. (here’s the link to the ESPN article – you’ll need insider)

– Here’s a good (free) article on ESPN about the boys.

– Some spare on ESPN’s Page 2 writes that the Tigers lacked “bang for the buck” in 2010.  Not news to anyone.  That ESPN has a Page 2 is really the news here.

– What do you guys think about Galarraga and Jim Joyce co-authoring a book?

– Does Vlad do anything for you?  Apparently the Orioles are doing a good job of driving down his value, offering $3M for a year.  What about Bondo as a spot starter?

– If you haven’t seen it already, MLBTradeRumors really has the best free agent news around, despite their utter disregard for design.

News and Notes: 1.4.2011

Happy New Year all.  I hope that everyone is enjoying the bowl season.  A few things that I’ve compiled over the last few days.

– Bless You Boys posted a great note today which makes a case to put Trammell in the Hall of Fame.  Citing an article by Joe Posnanski, the crux of the argument is that Trammell excelled relative to his position, and should not be compared to today’s “slugging” shortstops.  Unfortunately, I don’t see it.  I see the argument, but I don’t see the votes.  And this is coming from a guy who uses Trammell references liberally in his password combos.

Higginson isn’t really in the running.

– Yanks show interest in Bonderman.  Take it for what it’s worth.

– A Miami columnist weighs in on the 3 team race in the central.  Nothing of note here, other than it must have been a slow news day in Miami.

– The USA Today ran a great organizational report yesterday, check it out here.

– Is Bryce Harper the next Al Kaline?