Does Alan Trammell utilize small ball too much? What about his bullpen use and subsitution patterns. His in-game decision making over his first two years has been a source of frequent criticism on this site as well as others. However, what are the right tactics and how does he stack up against his peers?
With the help of the The Bill James Handbook: 2005
we can take a look at how often Trammell employs steals, pitch outs, sacrifices and a handful of other interesting stats.
One of the first things that people point to is that the Tigers under-performed their pythagorean record each of the last two years. Last year some may be attributed to a porous bullpen and defense, while 2003 maybe attributed to an inferior and inexperienced talent base all around.
The lack of talent in 2003 caused Trammell to employ whatever strategies at his disposal. A lack of offensive pop led to a league leading 92 sacrifice bunt attempts and 161 stolen base attempts which was third highest in the league. For better or for worse Trammell’s reputation as a small ball manager was born.
In 2004 the Tigers’ received an infusion of talent, and the result was a pretty solid offense. With hitters that could actually get on base consistently, Trammell was able to reduce his reliance on the sacrifice. He reduced his sacrifice attempts by a third down to 62. That still ranked as the 4th most in the AL, but at least he’s in the ballpark of the rest of the league now.
He also reduced his stolen base attempts by 30 to 136 which ranked 7th in the AL. Unfortunately that was probably still too often as they were 4th worst in their success rate trailing only KC, Chicago, and Cleveland (more on this later). What isn’t captured is how many of the Tigers’ caught stealings were the result of failed hit and runs. From watching, it seemed that the Tigers ran into outs with missed signs way more than I’d care for, but I can’t really say conclusively without data.
So it seems that Tram has small ball leanings, but a lot of the perception was cultivated when he was managing a team devoid of talent. What’s interesting is that he is one of the lesser small ballers in the AL Central. The table below shows where the AL Central managers rank within the American League.
Manager SBA SB% SacA Sac
Gardenhire 3 3 3 5
Wedge 4 12 6 6
Guillen 8 13 1 1
Trammell 7 11 4 3
Pena 10 14 6 8
Over the last few years the Twins have consistently outperformed their pythagorean projection while utiliizing small ball. On the other hand the Tigers have underperformed while using small ball. The big difference is the execution of the strategy. While the Twins ran quite a bit last year, they seperated themselves from the rest of the division by actually being successful. Once Ozzie Guillen fields his new speed and defense team it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads the league in SBA’s. Conversely, other teams were more successful than the Twins in converting sacrifice attempts, but seemed to fare worse overall. This makes sense because if you can successfully move the runner without giving up an out you’ll be ahead of the guys willing to concede the out.
I’m not trying to draw the conclusion that the Twins win because they steal bases well, or that Gardenhire is necessarily better than his Central counterparts. It is just an interesting look at what strategies have had success, albeit within in a very small sample.
Also, while Trammell is still probably a small ball manager, his reputation was largely developed during a season in which there were extenuating circumstances. His utilization of these strategies seeemed to decrease as he spent more time on the bench.
Other Stuff-
-On a related note, Trammell hardly used pitch outs last year. He let Pudge’s reputation deter the opponents running game. He only called 8 pitch outs last year, down from 28 in 2003. Only 59 runners tried to steal on Pudge, the fewest among full time catchers in the AL. Yet another way in that Pudge helped the Tigers. He helped eliminate the run game, and prevented his pitchers from having to waste pitches.
-I highly recommend picking up a copy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook. In the month I’ve had mine I’ve already worn the thing out and it has about a dozen bookmarks. It has a wealth of interesting stuff that you just won’t find anywhere else.
-If you enjoy women talking about sports make sure and read BatGirl and Blue Cats and Red Sox. Batgirl and her Batlings follow the ups and downs of the Twins from a completely subjective point of view. She leaves out the stats and makes baseball fun. Blue Cats and Red Sox has the travails of a ‘Boston Fan in Michigan’ as she celebrates her Red Sox and Patriots while mourning our Detroit kitties – and she gets points for being a UM student as well.