Justin Verlander has gotten off to a rough start in 2009. People are starting to question his “ace-hood” and with an ERA of 9.00 after 4 starts it is probably justified. What makes his start so perplexing is that his “stuff” appears to be back. His fastball velocity is over 95mph and he’s fanning 10.7 batters per 9 innings. The numbers that really need a deeper examination though are those when runners are on base. Verlander is stranding only 39.6% of runners (a normal rate is 65-75%) and hitters post a 457 OBP with men on and only 296 with the bases empty. What’s up with that?
Category Archives: Pitching
Rotation shuffle
With today’s rain out, the Tigers have changed their rotation, or have they demoted Zach Miner to the bullpen?
The two different stories have a different feel to be sure. First though, the upcoming pitchers are: Galarraga, Verlander, Jackson, Porcello. That’s what we know for sure. The Tigers are effectively skipping Rick Porcello this turn through the rotation. And with an off day Thursday, and another off day on Monday, Galarraga is expected to start the Tuesday game in LAAnaheim. Which means Zach Miner is being skipped in the next turn through the rotation.
I really think this is more a matter of maximizing the starts for the Verlander/Galarraga/Jackson triumvirate than it is a relegation of Zach Miner to the bullpen. Miner wasn’t good on Monday, but not many pitchers were good in that weather and I can’t see that as a reason for him to lose a spot in the rotation. But…who knows what will happen between now and the next time the team needs a 5th starter.
Tigers go closer by committee
The Tigers are certainly making the last week of an agonizingly long spring training interesting. The other news of the day is that Fernando Rodney will be the closer on Opening Day (presuming of course they need a closer). But that he might not be after that. But Jim Leyland isn’t naming him the closer for the season and it sounds like others (Lyon/Zumaya/Perry) will get shots at it as well. There’s no word on if Fernando Rodney’s gator tooth factored into the decision.
So for everybody looking for saves on their fantasy team, probably best to stay away from the Tigers. Then again maybe you were already doing this.
Starting pitching not so ready
The news from Lakeland today is that Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman may not be ready by Opening Day. The Zumaya news isn’t at all surprising. The Bonderman news isn’t especially surprising, but a little concerning as he looks to regain velocity. But that’s not all…
There is of course the Nate Robertson thumb injury which thankfully doesn’t sound too serious. Still, it’s not a lock that he’ll make his next scheduled turn.
And option Rick Porcello hasn’t been quite as dazzling since the finger injury. He’s struggled somewhat with his control against the Yankees on Saturday. Tonight he walked 3 and allowed 3 hits in 2.1 innings against Tampa.
This spring has seen a lot of ups and downs from the various members of the rotation. Verlander was working on stuff and all over the place before finding his groove. Robertson was washed up and done before turning in back to back nice outings before the thumb injury. Porcello was the best pitcher in camp before his finger injury. Zach Miner was relegated to the bullpen before he seemed to figure things out. Who knows what will happen over the next week. Maybe Dontrelle Willis and his new leg kick will give us reason for hope.
Today’s 5th starter battle run down
I really wish there were other stories in this year’s camp, but aside from the fact that 4 of the team’s 5 most prominent offensive forces are on the other side of the country, it comes down to the battle for the rotation.
Rick Porcello gets as big of a stage as you can during spring training pitching in Tampa against the Yankees. It’s his first start since March 9th as he’s been sidelined with a minor finger injury.
Nate Robertson pitched wonderfully yesterday throwing 4 scoreless innings and only allowing 2 hits while fanning 5. That comes on the heels of 3 scoreless innings his last time out.
Dontrelle Willis is going back to his old wind-up with the exaggerated leg kick. He demo’d it in his third inning of work on Thursday night and Rick Knapp is working with him to refine it. Why not, nothing else is working says Jim Leyland:
“We’re at the point where we’re trying pretty much anything. I think that’s pretty simple. And I think [Willis] feels comfortable with that.”
Are things looking up for starters
It has been a tumultuous spring for the Tigers starters. Exactly what you wouldn’t want to see with the hopes of the team largely relying on the incumbents ability to bounce back from a rough 2008. Bonderman injured. Verlander working on mechanics. Willis, Robertson, and Miner playing hot potato with the 5th starter spot. Galarraga not doing a whole lot of anything (literally). If it weren’t for Porcello the first few weeks of spring games would have been a disaster. But are things turning around?
Justin Verlander went 6 innings on 70 pitches and only allowed one hit today. The K’s weren’t there but everything else seemed to be working.
Nate Robertson turned in 3 scoreless and efficient innings over the weekend. His first positive outing. He’ll actually get a start on Friday with Rick Porcello being pushed back a day because of his finger.
Jeremy Bonderman felt good enough after his simulated game that he’ll pitch for real Thursday night.
And if you look hard enough, you can even draw some positives from Zach Miner’s outing on Monday. Yes, the final numbers don’t look good. But if you watched the inning, it was set up with a couple weak hits. Miner has continued to throw strikes at least, and it appeared on Monday he was keeping the ball down. He’s understandably frustrated.
A couple of good outings isn’t a reason to get excited. But even a couple is better than none. Maybe they are rounding into form.
Pondering Pen Possibilities
While the performances of the Tigers starters have been fairly unremarkable this spring, things are better at the back end of games. It looks like there are actual battles taking place, and in the favorable sense.
Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Bobby Seay are locks for the pen leaving four spots open. Zach Miner is also a pretty solid bet, enough to pencil in at least. That leaves three spots open.
Did Porcello make the team?
Lynn Henning has been writing about Rick Porcello daily, basically imploring Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski to take him north. In fact it’s the only story he’s been writing about. (although I haven’t written about much either so I’m not really ragging on him for this). Well in this afternoon’s piece Henning says:
Fans are nervous. Fans are excited. Rick Porcello is coming to town, as near as we can tell today, as part of Tigers manager Jim Leyland’s rotation.
Is this Henning speculation or fact? I have to believe it’s more the former than the latter. Porcello is clearly outperforming Robertson/Willis/Miner and is healthier than Bonderman. And if the season started next week I think the Tigers would take Porcello over the other options. But last I looked it’s March 13th and the season doesn’t start until April.
Why would the Tigers make this decision now? With Robertson and Willis on multi-year contracts there is no money to save by ending the competition now. Both will have several more chances to earn a spot and Porcello will have several more chances to demonstrate his readiness. It all seems premature.
Add in the fact that there is no Leyland quote about this and the other beats don’t make mention of it, and I think this is an informed guess as opposed to breaking news.
In other rotation-y news though, Jason Beck notes that the rotation order is lining up for the regular season with Justin Verlander starting on Opening Day (no surprise) and Edwin Jackson pitching game 2. And Jon Paul Morosi notes that there is no more slack remaining in Jeremy Bonderman’s schedule if he’s going to be ready for the first week. Most years the Tigers could get by with four starters the first week or two, but with the team playing 10 straight days there is no flexibility.
Is it time for Rick Porcello
With a job in the rotation up for grabs, the leading incumbents have struggled. Dontrelle Willis has taken a step forward from his struggles last year, but it hasn’t been a big enough step to warrant a rotation spot. Nate Robertson, who I expected to pitch better this year, simply hasn’t. But Rick Porcello? The longshot? He spun 3 scoreless innings where he did allow 5 hits, but none for extra bases and no walks. We’re still almost a month away from Opening Day, but is it time for the 20 year old?
The most compelling argument to keep Porcello in the minors relates to workload and stamina. In his only professional season he was kept to a hard 75 pitch limit in each of his starts. He also amassed only 125 innings. I say only not because that was too few, but it is less than where he’d need to be. So there is work to do in building stamina.
But the stamina/workload issue might also be the most compelling reason to bring him North right away. If you are of the belief he has multiple major-league-ready pitches right now (which many scouts do), why not take advantage of them early in the season? Why wait until he is closer to his seasonal inning limit later in the year. Why not get what you can from the kid to start the season?
Yes he is all of 20 years old, but poise and maturity don’t seem to be an issue for him.
There are of course economic reasons to keep him in the minors. Two of those are the contracts to Robertson and Willis. A third is the contract to Porcello himself. “Rushing” him and ruining him would be quite the blow given the bonus he received. Plus it accelerates his service time.
The Tigers (and every other team in the Central) are in contention for the division. If Porcello is going to pitch for the club this year, I’d rather it be in April than August. There are reasons to keep him in the minors. But it should only come down to 5 reasons – and those would be the 5 guys who prove themselves to be better options in the rotation. So far, and things could change in the next 4 weeks, those 5 reasons haven’t become apparent.
For more:Case closed? Bring Porcello north » Mack Avenue Tigers : A Detroit Tigers Blog
I’m looking for pitching
"I’m looking for pitching," Leyland said. "You can write whatever you want."
That’s the message that Jim Leyland sent to reporters today when he announced that Rick Porcello would get a start on Wednesday. Further solidifying that Porcello might really be a rotation candidate this season.
With Dontrelle Willis still shaky, Zach Miner getting rocked yesterday, and Nate Robertson not blowing people away, the door is a little bit open. Or maybe all the way open, but are there 4 guys trying to fit through it?
The Tigers got as good of news as they could have today on Jeremy Bonderman’s shoulder after an examination in Detroit today. Of course he’s still not throwing, but it doesn’t sound like things are structurally a problem.
Now whether or not Porcello getting a turn is out of curiosity, a message to the incumbents, or further evaluation for a rotation in flux remains to be seen. But this could be a pattern for the next few weeks. With Bonderman day-to-day, Armando Galarraga now pitching for Venezuela, and Justin Verlander first alternate for Team USA, the guys competing for the back end of the bullpen should have a chance to show what they have (or don’t have).
This Porcello Kid
Spring training is never short on stories about guys being in the best shape of their lives, or young kids making a favorable impressions on the coaching staff. But the Rick Porcello hype is reaching a fever pitch, and the first spring training game hasn’t even been played yet.
Jim Leyland made the familiar comments about taking the best players early on, and the brass mentioned Rick Porcello has an outside candidate for the 5th starter spot. I pretty much shrugged off that talk for the following reasons:
- The Tigers already have 3 candidates for the 5th starter spot (Willis/Robertson/Miner) and will already be sending a player with a substantial contract someplace other than the rotation.
- It seemed more like a managerial challenge to both the rookie, as well as the other guys in competition to see how they would respond.
- Porcello spent last year on a strict pitch count limit with a hard stop at 75 pitches. Plus, the hard stop not only held down his intra-game workload, but it held down his seasonal workload at 125 innings. Breaking camp with the team would be a significant jump in required workload.
But then Jim Leyland said…
“You can protect (one) pitcher in the majors — maybe one starting and relieving. … In other words, you can make up your mind that a starter is going to pitch five or six innings and get him out of there — you can do that a few times. You can’t do it all the time. …
Presumably Porcello wouldn’t be at the 75 pitch limit, but even a 90 or 100 pitch limit for a full big league season would be a significant jump in workload. In the minors Porcello was focused on using his 2 seamer to get groundball outs early in the count. He was quite effective in this regard and it had 2 effects. One, he only needed about 14.4 pitches per inning. Second, it limited his strike outs to a low 5.1 per 9 innings. At the big league level he’d be looked to employ his full arsenal and miss more bats (I’d hope anyways), thus driving up his pitch count.
PECOTA player cards aren’t available for pitchers yet, but I’d guess that the system doesn’t love Porcello at this point due to the low strike out numbers. But scouts and people who know these things felt that Porcello had pitches that were big league quality at the beginning of last year.
I’m less concerned with Porcello being rushed due to his stuff needing more refinement (though some time to work on the pitches that were de-emphasized last year might not be a bad thing) and more so from a workload perspective. Unlike the Jeremy Bonderman situation where there weren’t really other options, the Tigers do have a couple other arms to consider for the spot. I wouldn’t be opposed to Porcello breaking camp with the team, but I’d probably prefer more of the Justin Verlander approach where he makes a couple spot starts to fill in for injuries or double headers.
Recapping the first workouts
The beats were busy with the first official workout of the spring. Seriously, multiple stories and blog posts throughout the day, even a live blog from Morosi. A quick rundown of the stories from Tiger Town…
Rick Knapp
After 20+ years in the minors, this was Rick Knapp’s first day as a big leaguer. This got a fair amount of attention and Jim Leyland was pretty excited for him.
“This is huge for him,” Leyland said of Knapp. “All those years in the minors, and now this is his first day in the big leagues. It’s one of the most exciting parts of our first day of camp, to be honest with you.
I’m a fan of the Knapp hiring and am I excited to see what he can do. But Chuck Hernandez looked to be a genius in 2006 before he suddenly forgot how to coach (that’s sarcasm). I do like that he doesn’t seem to have a specific pitch or philosophy (other than throwing strikes) and instead tailors the message to the individual. For Zumaya it is an emphasis on long toss and a change-up.
Dontrelle Willis
Part of Knapp’s plan for Willis is for just to be himself (the successful self from his days with the Marlins, not last year’s version). The early reports are positive, but it is only day 1. Part of that is due to improved conditioning that has him five pounds lighter.
Willis, along with Robertson and Miner are all in the mix for the 5th starter spot. It has led Henning to once again speculate a trade could be coming. There are obstacles in the way of course, like those big honkin’ contracts that don’t mesh with the 08 seasons for Willis and Robertston. But… I’ve heard similar rumblings. That’s not to say they’ll come to fruition, but I don’t think Henning is off base with this. The Tigers rotation, while not as strong at the top, matches up well with the rest of the division looking 1-5 (or 6 or 7).
Zumaya and Rodney
Joel Zumaya is trying to gain weight and get back into his 2006 form. Whatever it takes is okay by me. Meanwhile Fernando Rodney is sporting an alligator tooth around his neck. It came from an alligator that was wrestled in a river. Supposedly.