Category Archives: Pitching

2008 Season, Managing & Strategy, Pitching

Oh those intentional base on balls

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The Tigers struggled with walks in 2008. This is well documented and fairly obvious with the Tigers issuing more walks than every team other than Texas. It resulted in Chuck Hernandez losing his job and the Tigers bringing in a coach who built his reputation on pounding the strike zone. But a significant chunk of those walks came at the hands of Jim Leyland.

The Tigers led the American League in intentional walks with 63. The next closest team had 45 which means Detroit issued 42% more walks than the next most free pass happy team. It also means that instead of ranking 13th in the AL in walks, they rank 11th in unintentional walks. Still poor, but not as ridiculously awful.
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2009 Season, Pitching

Knapp talks Tigers pitching

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Lynn Henning caught up with pitching coach Rick Knapp. Knapp broke down the various members of his staff and it makes for a very interesting read.

He talks about Justin Verlander’s arm slot and balance point (Verlander’s arm angle was a rich topic last year). With Nate Robertson it is falling off to the third base side and getting too “horizontal” which flattens the slider. Jermey Bonderman is built like an ox. Dontrelle Willis is in phenomenal shape. Fernando Rodney needs to keep his emotions in check.

I don’t have the first clue if he’s right with any of these assessments. But what I do like is that he seems to be looking at a myriad of issues. He isn’t forcing everyone into a set way to do things. I’m anxious and optimistic to see what he can do with the staff.

Tigers’ Knapp shows knack with Verlander tip | detnews.com | The Detroit News

2009 Season, Free Agents, Pitching

Tigers relief options dwindling

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As we move closer to spring training, the Tigers bullpen still remains highly questionable. This hasn’t bothered me for the most part due to the number of options on the market. And while still not bothered, I am growing more concerned as two more of those options are close to signing deals.

Trevor Hoffman doesn’t appear to be an option as he mulls over a one year offer from the Dodgers amidst reports that he is close to a deal with the Brewers.

Another intriguing possibility, Michigan native John Smoltz, is set to sign with the Red Sos for a $5.5 million base and incentives that could push the deal to $10 million.

I don’t know how excited I would be about either option, but knowing they were out there made me feel better about the Tigers situation. The market for relievers isn’t barren yet. Juan Cruz is in compensation pick purgatory and Brandon Lyon is still available. But the only Tigers rumor floating is that they will watch Chad Cordero throw, along with a third of the league. For a bullpen that has exactly one member who is both productive and not a huge injury risk (Bobby Seay), that doesn’t really instill the warm fuzzies.

2008 Season, Pitching, Research, Statistics

Not pounding the zone

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Way back in 2008 I started to run a series using pitch f/x data to look at strike throwing tendencies. Sadly this is the slowest moving “series” of posts ever. Nonetheless, it’s time for part 3 where we look at how teams do when they get strikes outside of the zone. For this exercise I’m not looking at those generous calls off the corners, but for those strikes when hitters go fishing.

The first table we turn to is the fish rate, or the percent of pitches outside of the strike zone that hitters swung at. This is presented by count. As for the pretty shading, red are lower numbers and green are higher numbers.

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2009 Season, Pitching, Statistics

Tigers 2009 WAR Projections – Pitchers

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Earlier in the week I posted my wins above replacement projections for the Tigers 2009 lineup. Today I turn my attention to the men on the mound.

For the projections I used the Marcel 2009 FIP projection for pitcher ERA (available at Fangraphs). In terms of innings pitched, I used some judgment. I penciled in Justin Verlander for 200 innings, and every other slot in the rotation for 180. Feel free to disagree with this, I won’t mind. But I think we can agree that the success of the team will largely hinge on the staff’s ability to stay healthy.
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2008 Season, Defense, Pitching

Hitting em where they ain’t

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We recently took a look at the Tigers team defense through the eyes of David Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range. As Pinto wraps up this season’s numbers, he calculated the PMR behind each pitcher. Not much went right for Nate Robertson this year, and it is little surprise that his woes were reflected in the PMR numbers as well.
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2008 Season, Pitching, Statistics

Pounding the zone by count

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In part 1 of the series I dumped some big tables in here that looked at the rate at which teams threw a)strikes and b)the ball in the strike zone. Today we’ll continue along the same path, but we’ll start to differentiate based on count.

Pitches In the Strike Zone by Count

In 2008 teams pitchers through the ball in the strike zone (as defined by pitch f/x) at the following rates:

  • 0-0: 48.0%
  • 1-1: 45.0%
  • 2-2: 43.0%
  • 0-1: 40.0%
  • 0-2: 27.1%
  • 1-2: 34.6%
  • 1-0: 49.8%
  • 2-0: 51.6%
  • 3-0: 49.9%
  • 2-1: 51.2%
  • 3-1: 55.9%
  • 3-2: 53.8%

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2008 Season, Pitching, Research

Strike Throwing – Part 1 – Lots of Tables

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The Tigers walked a lot of people last year. Along the way they threw a lot of pitches, and many seemed to be ill advised. The performance cost Chuck Hernandez his job, jettisoned in favor of an instructor whose students have gone on to gain some renown as strike throwing machines. Armed with a season’s worth of pitch f/x data I’m ready to start delving into this whole strike throwing thing. We’ll start today with some general league wide information.

For those unfamiliar with pitch f/x I’ll have some additional links to more information at the end of this article. The short explanation is a couple of cameras measure the direction and speed a ball is moving shortly in front of the mound. From this the pitch’s path is calculated to within an inch of where it crosses the front of home plate. And it draws the trajectory in the MLB.com Gameday application. On to the data…
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Managing & Strategy, Pitching

Tigers name Rick Knapp pitching coach

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The Tigers found their pitching coach, and they poached him from the Twins. He is Rick Knapp and he’s served as the minor league pitching coordinator for the last 12 years in the Minnesota organization.

I really like this move. The Twins have a tradition of producing striking throwing machines on a regular basis, and you’d have to think that Knapp gets some of that credit. The Twins have walked the fewest number of hitters in the AL in 4 of the last 5 years.

The trick for Knapp now is to see if he can translate his development skills to pro pitchers and get the Tigers staff throwing strikes. His biggest challenge of course is with Dontrelle Willis, who’s struggles are well known. He will largely be evaluated though based on his work with Justin Verlander to see if he can help Verlander regain his studly-ness.

I am excited about Knapp’s long term potential impact as he imparts his philosophies on the young pitchers in the organization. Plus he won’t be churning out those arms for the division-rival Twins anymore.

Google Stalking

  • Jeff Passan wrote an article in August and Knapp was largely the subject. But one takeaway was that the Twins control strength goes beyond instruction and it is an organizational philosophy that goes down to talent evaluation. It will be very interesting to see what Knapp does with guys who were largely sought out for velocity and stuff.
  • In an article about Kevin Cameron, Cameron mentions that one year there was a rash of shoulder injuries to many Twins minor league pitchers. I don’t like the sound of that, but don’t know enough about it to judge either.
  • Knapp was discussed in reference to some tools and techiniques he used in assisting David Bromberg. (h/t)
Pitching

Tigers look to Twins for pitching coach

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The Tigers are interviewing 4 candidates this week, and one of them has been confirmed. Minnesota Twins minor league pitching coordinator Rich Knapp interviewed for the position today.

I have no idea if Knapp is a good coach, but the Twins continue to produce pitchers who throw strikes. In 2008 the Twins led the AL with only 2.5 walks per game. In 2007 they were second in the same measure behind the Indians. In 2006 they led the AL by nearly a half a walk per game. The story was the same in 2005. And in 2004 they led. I got tired of looking back at that point but you get the idea. As for Knapp’s tenure, this past season marked his 12th in the same role.

For a team with a bunch of pitchers who seemed to have difficulty harnessing their control, I like seeing Knapp as a candidate.

Other candidates haven’t been announced, but it is a safe bet that A.J. Sager will also get an interview. Sager served as pitching coach for the Mud Hens. Beyond that I’m not sure where the Tigers are looking. One candidate isn’t Leo Mazzone. He hasn’t been contacted by the Tigers, though he is interested.

2008 Season, Pitching

Chuck Hernandez fired

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The Tigers announced after today’s game that pitching coach Chuck Hernandez and bullpen coach Jeff Jones have been let go.

The Tigers pitching was dreadful this year and someone was going to take the hit. I don’t know that firing Hernandez is going to instantly make the staff better, but keeping him around this season certainly didn’t seem to help.

The coach relationship is always kind of a fuzzy thing to evaluate because as fans we really don’t know what goes on behind the scenes. So the best we can do is judge based on the results on the field, and outside of Armando Galarraga and to a lesser extent Bobby Seay, there wasn’t a lot of stuff to put in the positive column this year.

To be fair, Hernandez was the pitching coach over that wonderful 2006 staff that saw career years for Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson and a dominant bullpen. But things have gone down hill, and rapidly so, ever since.

In addition to a 3rd worst league ERA, there were some other things that at the very least go into the questionable column. Chief among them was Justin Verlander dismal year. There was much tweaking of mechanics but it never led to results. Also, there was the matter of Jeremy Bonderman’s elbow last year. An injury he pitched poorly with, and yet managed to hide from the coaching and medical staffs.

To Hernandez’s credit, he didn’t seem to be a believer in abusing the young arms that he had and there wasn’t a clear case of injury due to abuse.

One thing I won’t miss however is when pitchers hold a runner on with that whole, snap the ball out of the glove and hold it over your head thing.

Jeff Jones presided over a bullpen that continually struggled. Jones was the pitching coach at Toledo before getting the promotion when Don Slaught left the staff after the 2006 season. He’s been up and down within the organization in the past, and I could see him continuing to be in the employ of the Tigers.

I’m sure we’ll hear quotes from the pitchers about how Hernandez was great, and how it wasn’t his fault. That’s all well and good, but it became clear that changes need to be made in the pitching staff, and with 5 starters with favorable club control contract status or under long term contracts, it is obvious that the change is going to come at the top.

2008 Season, Pitching, Statistics

Most homers allowed by a reliever

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As Kyle Farnsworth allowed his 15th homer of the year, I was curious as to whether he was chasing any kind of history. After all, 15 homers in less than 60 innings seems like kind of a lot. Over 200 innings that would be 50 homers. It turns out that Farnsworth isn’t even close to setting the record for pitchers who were used exclusively as relievers.

That distinction belongs to John Wyatt who allowed 23 in 1964 out of the pen. It’s worth noting though that Wyatt threw 128 innings that year.

But what about the modern day reliever, you know, the guys who throw less than 100 innings a year? That honor goes to Gabe White who surrendered 18 dingers in 2001. He’s followed by a handful of guys who are tied with 17, including 2 other Tigers seasons.

Doug Bochtler allowed 17 in 1998 and Joe Boever did the same in 1995. I honestly have no recollection of Doug Bochtler whatsoever. Not just this accomplishment, but the fact he played major league baseball period.

Aurelio Lopez cracks the list when he allowed 16 homers during the 1984 season. Lopez pitched a remarkable 137 innings that year with a 2.94 ERA.

Oh yeah, back to Farnsworth. He’s at 15 and there’s still 2 weeks of baseball left. The thing is, he’s battling 2 other AL relievers. Justin Speier and Joel Peralta are in a 3 way battle. Peralta is “winning” having done it in only 50.2 innings.

In a coincidental twist, Roberto Novoa allowed 15 homers in 2006. Novoa was one of the players the Tigers sent to the Cubs to acquire Farnsworth before the 2005 season.